David Njoku’s Fantasy Outlook: Coming off IR, is he a player to target?

Fantasy Football

October 7, 2020 | 1:53 PM EDT

David Njoku’s Fantasy Outlook: Coming off IR, is he a player to target?

On Wednesday, the Cleveland Browns announced they are activating tight end David Njoku off injured reserve and back to the 53-man roster. The news of added help to the Browns’ offense couldn’t come at a better time after just losing running back Nick Chubb for six weeks. While the team will need to get Njoku up to speed, fantasy football managers will need to decide if acquiring the talented tight end is smart. After requesting a trade earlier in the season once the team acquired Austin Hooper, how often will the Browns use Njoku going forward? And what is David Njoku’s fantasy outlook for the remainder of the 2020 season?

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David Njoku rejoins the Cleveland Browns after being activated off Injured Reserve

David Njoku has missed the team’s three most recent games with a knee injury. Cleveland placed him on Injured Reserve (IR) following a Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He had three catches for 50 yards and a touchdown before leaving the game.

The move opens up a 21-day window during which the Browns can evaluate Njoku in practice, but he isn’t expected to require the full period before Cleveland adds him back to the 53-man roster.

Since Njoku has already missed Cleveland’s last three games, he’ll be eligible to play Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, assuming his sprained knee responds well to practice. Given the new rules for the IR that were put in place this year, this was the minimum that Njoku could have sat out after being initially placed on the IR.

The problem for Njoku and the Browns tight ends as a group is this is a brutal matchup. The Colts are the best team in the NFL against the tight ends in fantasy, only allowing 0.82 PPR points per target. The Colts have allowed just 11 receptions for 71 yards to tight ends. Even at full strength, Njoku could be someone who disappoints eager fantasy managers in his first week back in the lineup.

How does David Njoku fit into a crowded Browns tight end room?

Even at full strength, Njoku faces an uphill battle for targets as the Cleveland tight end group might be one of the team’s deepest positions in the NFL.

First, the team added former Atlanta Falcon Austin Hooper to the team during free agency. Hooper is coming off his best game of the season, a five-catch, 34-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Dallas Cowboys. However, his run blocking has been one of the best assets he has brought to the team, and one of the reasons he sees an 84% snap share.

The more surprising player has been Harrison Bryant, the Browns fourth-round pick out of Florida Atlantic. Even before Njoku suffered a Week 1 injury, Bryant played himself into a sizable amount of first-team reps with a strong training camp. Bryant caught seven passes for 59 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland’s first four games.

The rookie did most of that damage with four catches and 37 yards in Cleveland’s 49-38 victory over the Cowboys in Week 4.

Bryant played 42% of the Browns’ snaps in the Week 1 loss to Ravens. That percentage has gone up each week, and in Week 4, Bryant played 69% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps. He has also played at least 36% of the Browns’ special teams snaps in each game.

The Browns have yet to find a stable WR3 on their team, and 12 personnel usage opens up more volume for the tight ends. Now they have to attempt to find a way to work Njoku into this rotation as well. A first-round pick in 2017, Njoku has recorded 96 receptions for 1,116 yards with 10 touchdowns in 37 career games.

Can David Njoku become a fantasy relevant tight end?

I think David Njoku’s fantasy relevance can return, but it might only be in deeper leagues. Cleveland, even without Chubb, is going to be a run focused team. It has gotten them off to a 3-1 start, and there is no reason to switch from that now. Especially in his first game back, against a brutal matchup, we need to temper expectations on Njoku for at least Week 5. Using this first week to see how and when they choose to use him on the field might be the best course of action.

Njoku is one of the most athletically gifted tight ends in the NFL, and I could see the team choosing to use him in more of a big slot role. The team won’t be able to spread Kareem Hunt all around the field anymore with Chubb gone and will have to use other players on the team, and Njoku makes perfect sense to fill that role. I expect to see Hooper lining up inline, where he has on 71% of his snaps, and the team use Bryant and Njoku in the slot, giving them an opportunity for fantasy points down the road.

Want more fantasy football analysis and news?

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.

Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.

Start/Sit, Week 5: Is Brady still an every week starter for fantasy football?

Fantasy Football

Phillip Caldwell

October 7, 2020 | 12:14 PM EDT

Start/Sit, Week 5: Is Brady still an every week starter for fantasy football?

One more week in the books, and already fantasy football managers have to deal with bye week woes. Pile those on top of the onslaught of injuries that 2020 has given us so far, and options for this column are getting weirder and weirder. So let’s review our Fantasy Football Consistency Score (CS) and Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (DPACS) after what we have learned and highlight the top Week 5 matchups and players to start or sit for your fantasy lineups.

If you would like more detailed information on how the CS and DPACS works, please refer to the Introduction to the Fantasy Football Consistency Score. But the basic premise is, the higher the CS, the more consistent a player is scoring high-level fantasy points. In the case of DPACS, the consistency in which that team allows high-level fantasy points to the position.

PSA: I don’t feel the need to tell you, the savvy fantasy G.M., to start a player like Patrick Mahomes every week. I abide by the golden rule: start your studs. However, if there is glaring evidence to sit a bonafide starter, we will discuss that as needed.

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Quarterbacks to start/sit in fantasy football Week 5

Start Teddy Bridgewater

I love a “feel good” story. And there isn’t a bigger feel-good comeback story in the NFL than Teddy Bridgewater shedding arm tackles and scrambling for 18 yards and a touchdown this past Sunday. Now the 2014 first-round pick gets the favorable matchup against the buttercup Atlanta Falcons in Week 5.

Bridgewater’s 6.08 screams mediocrity, and his QB24 ranking in FPD isn’t terribly juicy either. But he is in the top half of the league in xFP, and we finally saw a strong passing performance from Bridgewater in Week 4. Bridgewater looks like a quarterback that is shaking off the rust, but he is improving each game, it seems.

But that’s not the real headline here. The matchup against the Atlanta Falcons secondary is why fantasy managers everywhere should feel confident firing up Bridgewater in Week 5. The Falcons have lost six members of their secondary.

This year, they are allowing an average of 354 passing yards and have literally given up four passing touchdowns in every single game this season. That includes the Trubisky/Foles Week 3 meltdown against Chicago. With the second-highest DPACS against QBs, 25.63, and a whopping 32.48 average points allowed, Bridgewater might have his best fantasy football performance of the year in Week 5.

Sit Tom Brady

Welcome to 2020. I am officially suggesting that fantasy football managers sit Tom Brady in Week 5. The end is near…

But seriously, Brady hasn’t been a statistical stud this season. He had his best statistical game of the season in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers, but before that game, he was averaging 250 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception a game, and his 7.04 CS is 20th among all signal-callers. All of his pass-catchers are banged up, and it is likely he has to lean even more heavily on a rough-looking post-retirement Gronk. It’s not the prettiest situation Brady has been in.

On top of his own team’s woes, they play the Chicago Bears in Week 5, who are 26th in DPACS and 31st in average points allowed to quarterbacks. Not a matchup to target for fantasy. On top of the defense being stout against the position, the offense is struggling mightily. They are tied with the Washington Football team for the 12th fewest offensive touchdowns on the season. So this isn’t apt to blow up into a thirty-something-thirty-something shootout the way the Chargers game did. Ignore the name fame, and sit Brady.

Which running backs should you start/sit in Week 5?

Start James Robinson

This kid is fun. More than that, he is good too. His 5.96 CS is 11th among all running backs, he is averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game in 0.5-PPR formats, 71 rushing yards, 4 targets, and 1.5 touchdowns per game. James Robinson came out of nowhere and is making himself a household name.

In Week 5, the Jacksonville Jaguars lineup opposite the 0-4 Houston Texans that just fired their head coach/GM/Czar and currently have the second-highest DPACS, 21.7, and are averaging right around 30 points per game to the position, regardless of format. Is that not enough for you? You need more, you say? How about the fact that the Texans have allowed more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL in 2020 and are tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed (6)? Yeah, James Robinson is an “all systems go” start this week.

Sit the Los Angeles Rams running backs.

The Los Angeles Rams are traveling to the nation’s capital to face off against the Washington Football Team, who have the third-lowest DPACS, 6.61, and average points allowed to the position.

Along with a bad defensive matchup, it’s a complete coin flip as to which running back is even “the guy” on this team. On the season, Malcolm Brown has 45 carries to Darrell Henderson’s 43. Brown also eeks ahead in targets, 12 to 7, and both backs have two touchdowns each. But Henderson leads the two in rushing and receiving yards. The situation is simply too murky going into a bad matchup on the road. Steer away from either back in Week 5.

What wide receivers should you start/sit in fantasy football for Week 5?

Start Robby Anderson

If I am going to tout Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, then it stands to reason that the Carolina Panthers number one receiver will have a good day too. And sadly, no, I don’t mean D.J. Moore. I whiffed hard on that one this offseason.

But Robby Anderson has been all that we’ve hoped for and then some. It just took getting away from a particular head coach up in the “Big Apple” for him to show a consistent level of production. Anderson is currently sporting a Consistency Score of 5.43, 12th highest among receivers, a +22% Fantasy Point Differential, and is averaging 14.43 fantasy points per game. Going up against the C-Team for the Falcons defense will be a walk in the park for Anderson.

Sit Hunter Renfrow

Despite all the injuries essentially making Hunter Renfrow the number one target for Derek Carr, this is not the week to plug him into your starting lineups. The Las Vegas Raiders are traveling to the heartland to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in their building. The Cheifs are shutting down receivers this season and going to make it a very bad afternoon for Renfrow.

The Chiefs 8.21 is the second-lowest DPACS vs. receivers, and they are allowing the fewest average points to the position. In the real NFL world, it is just as bad. They have allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and receiving yards and the third-fewest receiving touchdowns on the season. Even with all of the injuries plaguing fantasy seasons this week, Renfrow should be avoided in this matchup.

Taking a look at tight ends in Week 5

Start Hunter Henry

Let’s just keep going back to the well that keeps on giving. Tight ends versus the New Orleans Saints. Last week it was T.J. Hockenson finding the endzone. This week Hunter Henry is up next to take on one of the most giving defenses when it comes to the position. The Saints are giving up 24.2 PPR points per game to tight ends, second-highest, and has an 8.4 DPACS to the position. Also, the second-highest.

The kicker, Hunter Henry, is good again! He’s healthy, which, let’s face it, was the only real thing holding him back. In 2020 Henry has the fifth-highest CS, eighth highest in both xFP and targets, and is 13th among tight ends on the season in fantasy points for PPR formats. Plenty of opportunities, consistently performing, and a “My Pillow” soft matchup. Yes, please!

Sit Dalton Schultz

When I see that Dalton Schultz is the eighth-highest scoring tight end at this point on the season, I can’t help but think of what Blake Jarwin could have been. But we have to play with the cards dealt, and we have Dalton Schultz instead, and this week he plays the New York Giants.

The Giants have been surprisingly good against tight ends this season, ranking 24th in average points allowed and 26th in DPACS. Meanwhile, they are a top-10 matchup against receivers. This profiles to be a game where Dak Prescott has no problem hitting his first read when they need to throw, and leaning on Ezekiel Elliott for the vast majority of the time. With a high likelihood of a defensive score to boot, I just don’t see how the Cowboys are going to need anything other than run blocking out of Schultz this week.

Amari Rodgers impressing early on in Clemson’s season

Scouting

Nick Farabaugh

October 7, 2020 | 12:30 AM EDT

Amari Rodgers impressing early on in Clemson’s season

When Justyn Ross got knocked out for the season with an injury, Trevor Lawrence’s receiving corps undeniably took a sharp hit. However, it turned the attention to Senior wide receiver Amari Rodgers, who was poised to step up in the room without Ross. Early on in the year, Travis Etienne has already had a huge impact on Clemson’s entire offense. Rodgers has similarly impressed, with over 200 receiving yards in just three contests. It is a good early season boost to Rodgers’ stock.

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Amari Rodgers stands out against Wake Forest

After three touchdowns in the past two weeks, Rodgers is getting some national attention. Yet, it was his Week 1 performance against Wake Forest that really stands out to me. Rodgers showcased his full skillset, and it shows how his skills could translate to the next level.

The immediate thing anyone has to understand is that Rodgers will probably be a slot receiver at the next level. That is okay, but you have to go into this evaluation knowing that. For that spot, he has a great skillset. His quickness and explosiveness fit right into the twitchiness that teams love in their slot receivers. In this play, in particular, he showcases lots of great skills.

Notice how Rodgers stems this almost right into the slot cornerback. He is essentially on his toes, engages the defender with his body, and uses a slight shove with his arm. That gets him just one step to accelerate and get separation. Trevor Lawrence throws a great ball, and Rodgers makes a good catch outside of his frame. Overall, this is spectacular savviness to attack the leverage while still showcasing strong hands.

The other thing that will stand out about Rodgers is his ability to win after the catch. We have seen a trend in recent years where receivers are coming out and built like running backs. A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, James Washington, and Brandon Aiyuk are a few examples.

Rodgers fits right into that mold. Clemson loves to get him manufactured touches, and you can see why. Rodgers has effortless contact balance and is extremely shifty when working side to side. Getting him one-on-one opportunities against defenders usually means Rodgers will win. He is outstanding after the catch. I would call it his best trait.

So, Rodgers is not an excellent route runner by any means. However, his releases off the line and how he chooses to attack leverage are good. If you see him open, there is a decent chance that Rodgers won that off the line. The same is true here. Rodgers stems directly to the defensive back and gets on his toes to make him flat-footed. No matter what he does from that point, he wins. Rodgers makes a quick dash inside to gain separation and then some more yards after the catch. The NFL’s best slot receivers can do this consistently.

This play is rather unspectacular from Rodgers’ point of view. He has an absolutely massive cushion from the safety. I have no idea what Wake Forest is doing here. It is possible that this is a blown coverage and that the inside coverage defender was not guarding the flats but Rodgers. Regardless, I highlighted this because it shows Rodgers is thinking. He takes advantage of this cushion but takes his break quickly enough to keep Lawrence’s timing and get wide open. That is good awareness from Rodgers.

The one worrying play

Most people can probably remember this play. This is just inexcusable from Rodgers. NFL players can not drop this, even if they are feeling the sideline. Rodgers does a nice job of even dragging his feet for a potential catch. It is a blown coverage and should be a touchdown, but to drop this is deflating. Although he usually has consistent hands, this could be a sticking point for Rodgers. He battled back from it well mentally, which is nice to see, but there are no excuses for this drop.

Rodgers’ role against Miami

Do not expect theatrics from Clemson against Miami. When it comes to Rodgers, he has a pretty defined role and sticks to it. He is an explosive playmaker who wins off the line and can win after the catch. Hopefully, we can see Rodgers go up against someone like Al Blades Jr. to get a real feel for how he could project to the next level against a fellow NFL prospect.

The YAC display Rodgers may put on will be something to watch. No matter who Clemson faces, Rodgers is a threat to take one to the house whenever the ball is in his hands. Please make no mistake about it, Rodgers has a lot of pressure on him this game. In a Top-10 matchup as Clemson’s number one wide receiver, you better show out. NFL scouts will be watching this one.

If Rodgers can have a big game against the Hurricanes, scouts will officially be put fully on notice for this young man. With a Senior Bowl invitation likely coming his way, do not put a rise for Rodgers in the coming months out of your minds.

Win or lose, the Chargers should stick with Justin Herbert

Staff Contribution

Cole Thompson

October 6, 2020 | 11:40 PM EDT

Win or lose, the Chargers should stick with Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert isn’t your average rookie. He’s a young gun that was told mere minutes before a Week 2 matchup that he’d be named the Chargers’ starter. Since then, the sixth overall pick has dazzled with plenty of uplifting moments that mitigate his rookie mistakes.

Anthony Lynn watched his 22-year-old quarterback battle the likes of 43-year-old Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ defense in a swashbuckling shootout. When Brady entered the NFL, the Chargers’ future star was only the ripe age of two. On Sunday, he evenly matched the future Hall of Famer and made things interesting late.

Brady showed the youngling that it’s all about the finish, scoring 28 points in the second half to complete the 38-31 comeback. However, the attention remains on Herbert, who despite having the longest experience as a starter, was viewed as the QB3 of April’s draft. Over the past three games, he’s hung in strong with lesser weapons and put up similar numbers to that of likely Rookie of the Year front-runner Joe Burrow.

However, Lynn stated that Tyrod Taylor is the present and Herbert is the future. So what happens now that the future has already arrived? Win or lose, Lynn should have his answer at quarterback for 2020 and beyond.

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High praise from the “Quarterback Whisperer” gives Herbert solace

Following Sunday, Bruce Arians gave Lynn praise for his early development with Herbert. For anyone who isn’t familiar with Arians’ work, take a look at the early development of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck for reference.

“I told Anthony after the game, ‘You’ve got a great one…’ That looked like Mahomes, where we had an all-out blitz, and he just kept retreating,” Arians said, via Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times. “Then he threw a dime down the field. For rookies to make plays like that, you know they’re special.”

Arians, a.k.a the “Quarterback Whisper,” wasn’t the only one with praise for the former Duck. Brady, who threw for a season-high five touchdowns, couldn’t help but quack away at Herbert’s potential.

“He was very impressive. He played great,” Brady told reporters after the game. “He’s got all the ability. He’s got a great arm. Moves really well. The team believes in him.”

“He’s off to a great start.”

Great truly is the word to describe Herbert’s heroics after entering October. Yes, winning is important, and the team is 0-3 with him calling the shots, but how can he be responsible for an implosion in the secondary? Sunday was the final touches needed for Herbert to prove Tom Telesco was smart to stay at No.6 instead of trading up.

Herbert impresses with his ability to move inside the pocket to avoid pressure. That was prevalent Sunday as Los Angeles allowed two sacks, yet there could have been more if not for the rookie’s pocket management. Instead of collapsing under the pressure, Herbert lived up to it by going 20-of-25 for 290 yards and three touchdowns.

Sunday’s showdown far from a fluke

Herbert’s showdown with Brady was unique, but also not uncommon. After his third start, this marked consecutive outings where he’s thrown for at least 290 yards and a touchdown to begin the season. And with his red hot numbers, he joins only Cam Newton with 900+ passing yards in their first three starts since 1970.

There’s also Herbert’s ability to spread the ball out between targets. In each start, he’s found at least six different receivers. He isn’t solely relying on top weapons like Keenan Allen or Hunter, but names most would likely find on practice squads.

Herbert’s masterpiece of a 72-yard dime reached the hands of Jalen Guyton in the third quarter. Last season, the 23-year-old receiver spent most of his rookie season on the Cowboys’ practice squad. Then there was the 19-yard touchdown to Donald Parham, who rebounded this offseason with the XFL’s Dallas franchise. Tyron Johnson, who scored the team’s opening touchdown, bounced from four different practice squads before being raised before kickoff.

The difference between Burrow and Herbert is the arsenal. He’s working with A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd while the former Duck is swimming along with many pass-catchers who are a drop away from being cut. Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles to protect the franchise, and Herbert is playing without Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner on the right side.

Under pressure, both quarterbacks have excelled at connecting with their weapons. Herbert has yet to finish with a completion percentage under 66.7% and seen a passer rating surpass 88 in each outing. As for his QBR? Although he’s seen a low of 54.2, it’s hovered in the 79-88 range in the other two games.

What is Herbert’s rookie ceiling?

Burrow received the praise for his third consecutive 300-yard passing game in the victory over Jacksonville. Herbert, who was 10 yards behind the top pick, duked it out against the G.O.A.T. and had his first multi-touchdown game. That’s still a win, even though Los Angeles was behind after 60 minutes.

Herbert’s accuracy has been near pint-point perfect since taking over. There’s also his ability to go long, connecting nine times with targets on passes longer than 15 yards this season. With two touchdowns coming over 50 yards this past week, he also leads the league in deep touchdowns.

Taylor is the option for consistency. Herbert is the risky, yet flashy, choice that keeps games interesting. The Chargers’ offense looked more efficient in losses to Kansas City, Carolina, and Tampa Bay than they ever did against Cincinnati. And sure, a three-game losing streak stings, but the potential of an exploding offense is in the works.

Herbert is far from a finished product, but the little film on him far exceeds early expectations. If Los Angeles can win with him, he should be the starter. If the team struggles, he still should still be under center.

This is Herbert’s team, and it’s clear he’s the answer. Now, Lynn must accept that if he hopes to see Los Angeles contend entering the midway point of the season.

Cole Thompson covers the NFL for Pro Football Network. Follow him on Twitter at @MrColeThompson and @PFN365 for all up to date NFL content.

Pitt QB Kenny Pickett an underrated potential starter in the NFL Draft

Scouting

Ian Cummings

October 6, 2020 | 10:00 PM EDT

Pitt QB Kenny Pickett an underrated potential starter in the NFL Draft

Quarterbacks who have the necessary traits can emerge at any time, and as the QB4 conversation for the 2021 NFL Draft heats up, the search for these quarterbacks has intensified. One name that continues to be overlooked is Pittsburgh Panthers QB Kenny Pickett, who’s only trended up through four games, and could be a rising NFL Draft prospect with legitimate starting potential.

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The race for QB4 in the 2021 NFL Draft

Beyond the consensus top three quarterback prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft, there remains an open conversation as to who deserves the QB4 mantle, and one could make a case that the candidates legitimately number over a dozen.

Kyle Trask is likely the popular front runner, as he’s gotten off to a statistically dominant start to the 2020 campaign. Behind him, Kellen Mond, K.J. Costello, and Tanner Morgan also find themselves in the mix as established draft hopefuls. Additionally, a few other Power Five passers like Brock Purdy, Jamie Newman, and Spencer Sanders also have bids to make, although slow starts, opt-outs, and injuries have clouded their projections, respectively.

Mac Jones and Sam Ehlinger didn’t come into the season as legitimate contenders, but early games with high volume have them surging. Myles Brennan will start to move as he produces more game tape. Non-Power Five signal callers like Shane Buechele and Desmond Ridder have outside shots at moving up the ranks, and even lesser-heralded quarterbacks like D’Eriq King, Zach Wilson, and Jarret Doege have fans as deep sleepers.

Usually, you’ll hear most, if not all, of these names before Kenny Pickett’s. And that, to me, is a travesty.

Pickett doesn’t yet have the name recognition to vie for the QB4 title, but he has some of the most explosive upside among his counterparts and one of the most complete arrangements of traits. He not only deserves to be in the QB4 conversation but near the front of it. Why is Pickett continually underrated, and more importantly, why shouldn’t he be?

Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett has all the traits, none of the NFL Draft hype

A true senior, Pickett is in his third season as the full-time starting quarterback for the Pitt Panthers, and yet, he doesn’t have the established notoriety that other quarterbacks with less experience boast.

Part of the reason Pickett lacks notoriety can be attributed to his school; while the Pittsburgh Panthers have been comfortably above the .500 mark during head coach Pat Narduzzi’s tenure, they only have one bowl win to show for it. Pitt has often been overshadowed by ACC counterparts such as Clemson, Miami, Louisville, NC State, and Virginia Tech.

With that being said, Pickett himself is also partly to blame for his inability to gain traction in the draft community. One can best describe his early play as “unhinged.” The Kenny Pickett of 2018 and 2019 showed plenty of flashes, but those flashes were often nestled between chaotic play sequences, bouts of slow processing, and questionable decision making.

Pickett’s inconsistency is noticeable in his production. Despite starting all 14 games in 2018, Pickett only passed for 12 touchdowns and six interceptions and completed less than 60 percent of his passes. In 2019, Pickett eclipsed the 3,000-yard mark and won a Bowl game, but he still only passed for 13 scores and nine interceptions and averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt.

The raw stats not only reflect Pickett’s volatility but also dissuade people from recognizing the upside he has. For a large part of his career, Pickett has been a quarterback who possessed the necessary traits but lacked the necessary control. Now, however, he’s adding elements of control to his game, and the developmental quarterback is suddenly developing.

What makes Pitt QB Kenny Pickett such an exciting prospect?

Pickett’s upside jumps off the screen, so when we’re talking about why he’s such an exciting prospect, it feels right to start there: With his physical upside, specifically his athleticism and arm talent.

Kenny Pickett’s physical abilities

The throw below, which took place in Pitt’s 2020 ACC debut against Syracuse, does well to provide a first impression of Pickett’s arm talent. Look at the speed that Pickett generates with a crisp, compact throwing motion, sending the ball through a rapidly closing window to his receiver for a touchdown.

Pickett can generate elite levels of velocity with ease, and his motion is very efficient. It’s also worth noting that Pickett’s fundamentals are flawless in the play above. He keeps his base set, and his shoulders squared, slides upward when he senses pressure, and launches from a set position where he can generate substantial torque with his hip rotation. Pickett has naturally fluid mechanics, and that helps his arm talent shine through.

Of course, generating velocity in a clean pocket is one thing. Generating velocity off-platform is another. There have been plenty of case studies at the NFL level detailing the importance of off-script ability, and specifically, the arm elasticity and torso flexibility to generate velocity without the aid of mechanical congruence.

More simply put, quarterbacks aren’t always going to be able to go through their entire process without interruption, so having the traits to produce regardless is a valuable thing. The Pitt QB has these traits. Pickett is adept at throwing off-base too.

Check out the clip below, where Pickett’s process is interrupted by a blitz up the middle. Pickett rolls out to his left, running against his preferred side, and manages to square his shoulders and generate enough torque to fire a pass that just barely makes it to his receiver.

Without the velocity that Pickett is able to generate on this throw, this ball is very likely picked off. But instead, with his torso flexibility and arm elasticity, Pickett was able to give it enough power to squeeze past the looming cornerback and into the hands of his receiver.

Pickett’s above-average athleticism at 6-foot-2, 220, allows him to have these opportunities to extend plays, and it starts in the pocket, where Pickett’s mobility gives him the foundational edge necessary to outlast defensive linemen.

Have a look at the next play, where Pickett again goes off-script and produces off-platform. This time, he starts to step up into the pocket, but is forced to divert course, bounces outside, and completes a first-down pass to his receiver before the safety closes in.

Quick pressure is often a death knell for young quarterbacks, but in the modern NFL, having the mobility to withstand these moments and extend the play is crucial. Pickett has the mobility needed, but even then, it’s not all about the physical traits.

On top of mobility and escapability, quarterbacks proficient at extending chances need to have the natural feel for pressure, the eye discipline, and the composure necessary to turn a broken play into a positive. Pickett displays all of these traits at once in the clip below.

Here, Pickett, upon taking the snap, is immediately faced by a free rusher on the left side, and he whirls around to the left and starts rolling to the left side of the field. As soon as he does this, the Pitt QB brings his eyes back around, and rather than panicking, he immediately finds his receiver and uncorks an accurate pass that hits right between the numbers.

Keep in mind that this is on a fourth-and-four in the closing minutes of the first half, with Pitt being down a touchdown. This is an absolutely clutch play from Pickett, and without his mold of off-script feel and physical ability, it might not happen.

Pickett’s volatility under duress has been a knock in previous seasons, but in 2020, he’s off to a very strong start in that department. Pickett’s physical potential allows him to push the boundaries and take risks, but egregious mistakes and careless plays are becoming a rarity with him under center. The man has nerves of steel, as evidenced by this next play.

On third down, losing against the Wolfpack, in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter, Pickett has a rusher heading straight for him. Some quarterbacks curl up and take the “L” here, but Pickett quite literally does not flinch. He stands tall, locks in on his target, and fires a laser that’s placed adequately for yards after the catch in a crucial situation.

Regardless of whether it’s a mental trait or a physical trait, Pickett has most of the qualities you want to see from a modern signal-caller. He’s athletic, he generates velocity with ease, he has a degree of natural accuracy, and he’s also very tough, composed, and quick-thinking in the face of adversity.

But we already knew Kenny Pickett was talented, and we already knew he was a competitor. What has Pickett added to his game in 2020, to supplement his profile as a 2021 NFL Draft prospect?

Continue for more on Pittsburgh Panthers QB Kenny Pickett.

NFL Draft Rumors & News: Would Trevor Lawrence spurn the New York Jets?

Scouting
Staff Contribution

Tony Pauline

October 6, 2020 | 9:51 PM EDT

NFL Draft Rumors & News: Would Trevor Lawrence spurn the New York Jets?

The calendar has flipped to October, and the 2020 college football season is really ramping up. Meanwhile, the NFL has already seen a head coach fired with others squarely on the hot seat. So let’s again open up the mailbag to talk about the latest NFL Draft rumors and news. This week’s questions include thoughts on the 2021 safety class, quarterback Trey Lance, some thoughts on some NFL head coaches who may or may not be back in 2021, and more. But first, we begin with Trevor Lawrence and the New York Jets.

Remember, if you have a question you want to send in for next week’s mailbag, you can e-mail it to asktony@pfn365.com or send a tweet @PFN365 on Twitter using the hashtag #AskTonyPFN, and we’ll try to include it in an upcoming mailbag column.

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NFL Draft Rumors & News: The Tony Pauline Mailbag (10.06.20)

There’s been speculation that if the Jets were to get the first overall pick, Trevor Lawrence would stay in school for another year or try to force his way to another team like Eli Manning back in 2004. Do you see this as a possibility?

No, not at all.

I think the talk about Trevor Lawrence returning to school if the Jets get the first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft — or Lawrence telling the Jets he won’t play for them — is nonsense.

He’s a mature individual and a great quarterback prospect whose legend will only grow if he becomes a New York Jet and does well. The city was gaga over Mark Sanchez when he was the quarterback of Jets teams that went to back-to-back AFC title games.

It’s a case of people having to much time on their hands and starting a controversy that doesn’t exist.

To the untrained eye, it looks like the 2021 safety class has a lot of depth. Who are some of your favorite safety prospects?

I don’t have any players at the position graded as first-rounders, and it’s going to be a junior-driven class.

Jevon Holland will be highly rated, but his decision to opt-out makes him a Day 2 pick, in my opinion. He’s physically gifted, but he needs work on his game.

Xavier Henderson of Michigan State, Andre Cisco of Syracuse, Pittsburgh’s Paris Ford, and Kenderick Duncan Jr. of Georgia Southern are four more underclassmen who could impact the position.

The top seniors at the position, Elijah Molden of Washington and Georgia’s Richard LeCounte, are Day 3 selections right now.

Trey Lance did not perform very well in his “showcase” game. How do you think that game will impact his draft stock? And what are you hearing from scouts about how high Lance may get drafted in April?

I wrote about this during the gameday blog Saturday — it won’t affect his stock at all. That comes from area scouts I texted after the game. It was the first game of the year for NDSU against a Central Arkansas team that had played a full month of games.

Lance will go in the first round, but right now, there’s no belief in the scouting community that he’s a lock to be a top-10 choice.

Which player who opted out of the season will be most impacted by choosing not to play in 2020?

As mentioned earlier, that’s Jevon Holland of Oregon. He’s physically talented with great upside, but he needs work on his game.

I also think offensive tackle Walker Little of Stanford would’ve helped himself with another season on the college field.

Jamie Newman of Wake Forest (since he never played for Georgia) will also see his draft stock impacted by opting out. I graded him as a Day 2 pick this summer, in large part, because I expected to see progress in his game. Just about every scout I know who has graded Newman has stamped him as a Day 3 selection.

There’s been so much talk recently about head coach Dan Quinn in Atlanta. But what about general manager Thomas Dimitroff? Doesn’t he shoulder some of the blame? What’s his status with the organization at this time?

Is Dimitroff’s job status shaky? Yes, both Dimitroff (who’s a very nice guy, by the way) and Quinn were walking on eggshells last season, and many were surprised when owner Arthur Blank retained them.

Atlanta will be a desirable job, as the Falcons have a talented team and, until Monday night, weren’t getting their doors blown off in games or losing to bad teams — quite the contrary.

If the Vikings don’t make the playoffs, is Mike Zimmer going to be out in Minnesota?

Highly unlikely. Given the circumstances of the 2020 season and the fact that they are working with a new offensive coordinator and have had success under Zimmer, it would be a surprise if he gets fired.

Bill O’Brien has a reputation for being difficult to work with. Do you think he’d be considered for NFL offensive coordinator jobs? Do you think his ego would let him settle and take a coordinator job?

That’s a good question. It’s a question of whether a head coach would bring O’Brien in as a coordinator knowing O’Brien would be lurking over his shoulder and looking to take over at a moment’s notice.

O’Brien will want another head-coaching job, but given his reputation and the fact that he’s a bit of a tyrant in the front office, it may be difficult for him to get one.

With the Big Ten returning soon, who are the NFL Draft prospects most likely to rise up boards from that conference in 2020?

Michigan tight end Nick Eubanks is woefully underrated, and there’s an opportunity for him this season, especially with wide receiver Nico Collins opting out.

Tony Pauline is Pro Football Network’s Chief Draft Analyst and Insider. Follow him on Twitter @TonyPauline. Follow PFN on Twitter @PFN365.

Which Buccaneers wide receivers can you trust for fantasy on Thursday night?

Fantasy Football

Tommy Garrett

October 6, 2020 | 9:32 PM EDT

Which Buccaneers wide receivers can you trust for fantasy on Thursday night?

Coming into a short week, the last thing a team needs is any lingering injuries due to the compressed window for recovery. Unfortunately for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that is precisely what they are facing. With early reports that the team is facing a multitude of injuries, fantasy football managers have to wonder which wide receivers and skill players are going to step up for the Buccaneers on short notice.

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Nearly every critical offensive playmaker is carrying an injury designation for the Buccaneers

Several reports came out earlier in the day that several players did not participate in Tuesday’s practice. This afternoon, the team released their full injury report. It is chalked full of massive fantasy names.

WR Mike Evans – Did Not Participate
WR Chris Godwin – Did Not Participate
WR Scotty Miller – Did Not Participate
WR Justin Watson – Did Not Participate
RB Leonard Fournette – Did Not Participate
RB LeSean McCoy – Did Not Participate
TE Rob Gronkowski – Limited Participant
TE O.J. Howard – Placed on IR (Achilles)

They are scheduled to play the Chicago Bears in two days. While some players will suit up, it sounds like they will be missing some players come Thursday night.

Bruce Arians said he doesn’t see any way that Fournette will be able to play on Thursday, and it’s looking bleak that Godwin will be ready to go either after being out Sunday with that hamstring injury.

The more you look at this injury report, the more you realize how banged up this team is. Mike Evans played through his pain and was definitely not at 100 percent on Sunday, and the Bucs could very well be without him now.

Even if some of these guys can suit up, we shouldn’t expect that they’ll be at 100 percent for the game. If they all can’t, who will step up for the Buccaneers? And who can also be a sneaky value play for fantasy managers?

Mike Evans will have to gut out another game for Tom Brady to be successful

Evans played through an ankle injury in Sunday’s win and will likely try to do the same Thursday night. It was pretty clear on some plays, especially one of his deep targets, that Evans was not healthy. However, it did not stop him from having his best game of the season. Evans caught seven of his eight targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. If Godwin misses Week 5, which is the current thought, Evans has to be the team’s focal point if they expect to win their fourth game in a row.

Behind Evans, Scotty Miller is the next likely target who will step up similarly as we have seen in previous weeks. Miller filled in this past Sunday versus the Los Angeles Chargers, going for five catches (on seven targets) for 83 yards and one touchdown. Miller is still available in 15.4% of leagues and could be well worth the waiver claim. Miller has averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game and would be well worth a start as a flex play.

Buccaneers wide receivers Evans and Miller may be the only fantasy options you want

Outside of Evans and Miller, options are murkier. Justin Watson (0.3%) and Tyler Johnson (0.4%) are out there in leagues; however, neither is likely to be worth starting. Watson has caught seven of his 11 targets for 94 yards, and Johnson has yet to see a target.

If anyone takes another step up in the offense, we could see guys like Cameron Brate help out now that O.J. Howard is on the IR, and even Ke’Shawn Vaughn could see more work. Vaughn logged the first five touches of his NFL career this past weekend, including a receiving touchdown.

Vaughn played on 19 snaps overall (25%) with Fournette (ankle) sidelined for the contest and McCoy exiting Sunday’s game early with an ankle injury of his own. With the Buccaneers on a short week ahead of a Thursday night road matchup against the Chicago Bears, Vaughn may be called on to continue serving as Ronald Jones’ primary backup for that contest.

Want more fantasy football analysis and news?

Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.

Hurricanes running back Cam’ron Harris having breakout season

Scouting

Oliver Hodgkinson

October 6, 2020 | 8:30 PM EDT

Hurricanes running back Cam’ron Harris having breakout season

The University of Miami running back Cam’ron Harris is enjoying a breakout season in a Hurricanes offense that has become one of the most explosive in the nation. Harris has the opportunity to enhance his reputation and NFL Draft stock further when the Hurricanes face the Clemson Tigers in the marquee matchup of this coming weekend’s college football slate.

Rhett Lashlee has got the Miami offense humming right now. After a turgid 2019 season that saw the Hurricanes finish ranked 90th in points per game, they’ve exploded out of the gate in the 2020 season, racking up an incredible 43.3 points per game through three games.

Inevitably the explosion has seen praise heaped at the door of quarterback D’Eriq King. The Houston transfer and his favorite target, tight end Brevin Jordan, have seen a bump in their NFL Draft stock, but it is running back Harris whose stock is set to soar from this season.

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Cam’ron Harris near the top of the running back rankings

The junior Hurricanes running back leads the ACC in rushing touchdowns, having found the end zone five times in three games. With 311 rushing yards, he sits just outside the top 10 rushers in the nation. Harris is currently rushing at 8.2 yards per carry, ranking eighth in the country.

Harris’ breakout season

Through three games, Harris has two 100+ rushing yard games. Before this season, he had just one in two seasons. If his production continues at this pace, Harris will have surpassed his previous season-high rushing yards total by the season’s halfway point.

It is the epitome of a breakout season.

That is not to say that Harris hasn’t been a productive running back before. The former four-star recruit out of Carol City High School was the seventh-ranked running back in the 2018 recruiting class as per 247 Sports, after a high school career that saw him rack up over 1300 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns.

Harris was recruited heavily by schools across the country, including USC, UNC, and Wisconsin. A brief study of Harris’ high school tape shows exactly why. Harris showed noticeable strength and speed, combined with elusiveness, making it difficult to bring him down in the open field.

The Florida native opted to stay close to home and committed to Miami after a flirtation with Oregon State in the fall of 2016. In his freshman season, he saw limited action but flashed signs of his skillset with that opportunity. Harris put up 77 rushing yards against Virginia Tech the week after his first career college rushing touchdown against Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets would feel the force of Harris again in 2019 as the Hurricanes running back began to impose himself on the ACC. His 136 rushing yards were a bright spot in a Miami defeat and remain his single-game career-high. They would also represent a sizeable chunk of his total season yardage as Harris finished his sophomore campaign with 576 yards and five touchdowns.

Speed and strength define his skillset

So far in 2020, Harris has looked like one of the most dangerous running backs in the nation. What makes him so entertaining to watch, and how can that skillset increase his NFL draft stock?

Firstly, speed. Harris is genuinely fast.

On a fourth and one play against UAB, Harris found a gap at the line of scrimmage, and once he was through, he put the burners on and was gone for a touchdown. He demonstrated that speed again against Louisville with a 75-yard touchdown that put the game to bed.

His speed has impressed coaches and teammates alike.

Miami Quarterback D’Eriq King described Harris as a “freak” in an interview with Sirius XM. Lashlee told the Miami Herald, “He’s faster than I thought he was, more explosive than what I thought he was.”

Head coach Manny Diaz also told the Herald, “Cam’s work in the weight room has allowed him to maintain his speed through the course of a long run. He hit 23mph on our GPS.”

His work in the weight room will have also benefited another aspect of his game.

Harris’ strength is evident on the field in a multitude of ways. He isn’t afraid to lower his shoulder and use his strength and 210-pound frame to grind out extra yardage. He showed several examples of this in the season opener against UAB, including using his strength as a goal-line threat to find the end zone and make the score 31-14.

Harris also uses his strength in a facet of his game that will help his NFL Draft stock. If you can’t pass protect as a running back in the NFL, you have limited use, and Harris has demonstrated some nice pass protection snaps, particularly against UAB.

Room for improvement, an opportunity for national recognition

Like all players, there is room for improvement, and for Harris, it is with consistency. After opening up with two 100+ yard games this season, he struggled to 43 yards at 3.6 yards per carry against Florida State. In 2019, there was a game with less than three yards per carry for every game with over five yards per carry.

Harris will lead the Hurricanes running back room that contains impressive freshman Jaylan Knighton and Don Chaney against Clemson on Saturday night. It will be the biggest test of the season for Miami and Harris. The Tigers have one of the stingiest rushing defenses in the nation, allowing just 2.25 yards per carry and an average of 90 yards per game allowed on the ground.

An impressive performance on the same field as Travis Etienne, one of the best running backs in the country, on the national stage in primetime, will only see Harris’ NFL Draft stock climb even higher.

RAS: State of the Cleveland Browns running backs after Chubb’s injury

Staff Contribution

Chris Spooner

October 6, 2020 | 8:05 PM EDT

RAS: State of the Cleveland Browns running backs after Chubb’s injury

In the blink of an eye, we’re a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season, and trends are starting to emerge around the league. Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes are still elite. Josh Allen seems to have taken a massive step forward in his development. No lead is insurmountable when playing the Atlanta Falcons. And the Cleveland Browns may have two of the best running backs in the league.

Nick Chubb is the established leader of the corps. The young running back from Georgia has finished in the top 10 in rushing yards both years in the league, and is well on his way to another top 10 performance this season. His counterpart, Kareem Hunt, has seen a resurgence in Cleveland. While splitting time with Chubb this season, Hunt has provided the Browns with the perfect complement in the backfield.

Unfortunately for the Browns, running the ball is about to get more difficult. Chubb suffered an MCL injury that is going to keep him on the shelf for the next several weeks. Hunt has been dealing with injuries of his own, and being able to rotate running backs is critical to keeping him healthy.

The Browns depth at running back is going to be seriously tested throughout the next five to six weeks. What do the Browns have with D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard, and what can Cleveland expect going forward?

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D’Ernest Johnson RAS breakdown

Johnson went undrafted in the 2018 NFL Draft and signed with the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent before eventually finding his way to Cleveland. The former South Florida product put up a very poor RAS grade, likely contributing to his undrafted status.

RAS, or Relative Athletic Score, is a way for us to use the athletic testing NFL Draft prospects undergo at the NFL Combine or their Pro Day to compare and contrast their athletic abilities against their peers.

Each player is graded on a 1-10 scale, and the scores are compiled together to come up with a total composite grade. Scores above 8.0 are considered “Elite.” Scores between 5.0 and 7.99 are considered “Good” while those that fall below 5.0 fall into the “Poor” category.

D'Ernest Johnson RAS — D’Ernest Johnson RAS

With an overall RAS grade of 2.77, Johnson falls squarely into the “Poor” category from an athletic testing standpoint. That score puts him inside the bottom ⅓ of running backs all-time since 1987, at 882nd out of 1218. Johnson’s speed scores were particularly poor, with his 40-yard dash time (4.81) falling inside the bottom 100 all-time at 94th.

Speed was a stand-out score, in the worst sense of the word, but every aspect of Johnson’s testing was poor. He achieved “Poor” marks in each of the four composite areas: Size, Explosion, Speed, and Agility. His best score — 20 reps in the bench press — was only good for a 7.12 grade, falling outside the top 300 RBs of all-time at 333.

Dontrell Hilliard RAS breakdown

In stark contrast to his Browns running back counterpart, Hilliard did very well in his athletic testing. An undrafted free agent in the 2018 NFL Draft, Hilliard achieved a RAS grade on the low end of the “Elite” category at 8.06. Hilliard got poor marks in the size category just like Johnson but was able to achieve “Good” marks in each subsequent category.

The broad jump and 40-yard dash are where Hilliard really shined in his testing. With a broad jump of 10’ 5” and a 40-yard dash time of 4.42, Hilliard scored above 9.0 in each test. His marks were good enough to place in the top 100 RBs of all-time in each category, placing 96th and 70th, respectively.

Adding in a 3-cone time of 6.87 for a RAS grade of 8.85, and it was more than enough to offset poor marks in Hilliard’s weight (202 pounds for a 3.3 RAS) and the shuttle drill (4.38 seconds for a 3.48 RAS).

Browns running backs outlook going forward

Being able to run the ball effectively is pivotal in Brown’s head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense. That’s not going to change with Chubb’s injury. Despite losing one of the best running backs in the league, the Browns should still be effective, thanks in large part to their offensive line. Even with the Chubb injury on Sunday, Cleveland ran the ball for more than seven yards per attempt.

Despite having the significantly poorer RAS grade, Johnson is the back who led the way on Sunday in Chubb’s absence. Johnson led the team with 13 rushing attempts and was largely able to make the most out of each attempt. Contrary to his RAS grade, Johnson showed a lot of wiggle on his runs and was able to power through arm tackles. He proved he can be effective and deserves to split the load with Hunt.

Hilliard was the least effective of the Browns running backs on Sunday, albeit with a limited sample size. Hilliard was only given five rushing attempts on Sunday and only turned his carries into 19 yards, averaging less than four yards per carry, despite a RAS that seems to indicate an ability to do more with the ball.

Hunt is going to be the main running back for the Browns going forward. He’s earned that right with his past performances in the league, along with what he’s been able to do splitting time with Chubb this season. That said, Cleveland made it clear on Sunday that they’re going to be committed to the run with or without Chubb, and they’re committed to keeping Hunt fresh and healthy.

Johnson is going to be first in line, and a larger part of the Browns offense going forward. Sunday showed he’s got more to him than his testing showed. It’s a small sample size against a team that had no film on him, which is something to keep in mind. That said, you have to like what you saw from the former fisherman.

Sam Ehlinger NFL Draft worthy? A breakdown of the Longhorns QB

Scouting

Dalton Miller

October 6, 2020 | 7:16 PM EDT

Sam Ehlinger NFL Draft worthy? A breakdown of the Longhorns QB

Sam Ehlinger feels a little bit like J.T. Barrett, not in regards to the style or merits of their individual play, but in how long it feels both have worn a college football uniform. On top of that, how little we all thought about their NFL draft prospects until their time at their schools was up. After all, Ehlinger returned for as the Texas Longhorns qb for a reason, right? We’ve all heard and told the jokes about him playing fullback or tight end at the next level, so imagine my surprise when he appeared at the number five spot in Dane Brugler’s preseason quarterback rankings. So I decided to take a deeper dive and see what Ehlinger’s NFL Draft prospects are.

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Sam Ehlinger’s NFL Draft outlook

Ehlinger’s arm talent displays promise

This was easily the most surprising aspect of his game that I watched. Many analysts have mocked Ehlinger as a type of “watered down Tim Tebow” who didn’t really have the arm to make it at the next level. At one time, I may or may not have felt similarly, but that is no longer the case.

Ehlinger seems a bit stiff as a passer at times, but his release appears lightning quick to the short and intermediate areas of the field. His stock release is more upright than what you’ll see with most quarterbacks, but he’s shown that he can manipulate his arm slot when necessary. His consistency from a general accuracy perspective has also improved year after year. He’s flashed some throws that are of NFL quality, but they were more few and far between than an actual bright spot.

Now, however, his work on far hash throws and deeper intermediate routes won’t force you to hold your breath. But it’s the “gimme” throws, his pace and placement on deeper passes that provide the most hope for his potential future in the NFL. He’s become much more adept at allowing his receivers to make plays post-catch on short hot routes and screen passes.

What type of improvements does Ehlinger need to make?

We still need to continue seeing growth in his abilities as a rhythm passer. Ehlinger’s competitive nature and propensity to hold onto the ball until he sees openings make things more difficult for him. He needs to continue fine-tuning his consistency from a ball placement perspective. His rigidity actually makes his abilities as a mobile passer on the move, particularly to the left side of the field, more difficult. He needs to work harder to bring his left shoulder through as best he can to improve his target accuracy.

Can Ehlinger get over some of the evident mental hurdles we’ve seen as Longhorns QB?

This element of his game is both why he’s as relevant as he is, and what is also holding him back as a prospect. The Tebow parallels from grit, attitude, and determination are undeniable, but that is not all there is to being an NFL quarterback, as Tebow also proved. Now, his issues were almost entirely of a physical nature, where Tebow’s arm just was not capable, but that’s not the case with Sam Ehlinger and how he projects as a prospect in the NFL Draft.

Ehlinger’s a bit reminiscent of Jalen Hurts as a passer. He’s continuously grown throughout his collegiate career as the starting Longhorns QB to the point where he finally became an NFL prospect. But even with Hurts, commanding an offense with timing and rhythm hasn’t been necessary for them in college. Texas runs a lot from a 2×2 set, giving Ehlinger quick and easy horizontal and vertical stretch looks that are both clean and easy. There isn’t a whole lot of nuance necessary, and that will be part of his learning curve in the NFL.

I was surprised, however, to see how well he kept his eyes up and downfield when facing pressure or scrambling around. His actual physical ability to manipulate the pocket and find throwing windows with subtle movement is pretty nonexistent at the moment, but in scramble mode, he’s made some incredible plays. For example, the sack he shook off in his own end zone before chucking a pass toward the sideline to a freestyling receiver for a first down against Baylor demonstrates this.

Ehlinger has also shown a decent understanding of defender leverage. Smash concepts against quarters coverages, understanding what windows he can fit passes in isn’t ideal, but is shown in flashes. Against man or match concepts, he’s shown that he can leverage passes away from defenders where only his receiver can catch it, and his ability to trust his very large receivers in the air is admirable.

Where might Ehlinger land in the NFL Draft?

After seeing Jalen Hurts go in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, nothing should be counted out regarding Sam Ehlinger once the 2021 NFL Draft rolls around. With that said, it’s tough to envision a world where the Longhorns QB isn’t anything outside of an upside selection on day three. However, there is a path towards playing early on a team that is currently experiencing poor quarterback play.

He’s not as athletic as Taysom Hill, but if your football coach is as psychotic as Sean Payton, Ehlinger could be used in a similar fashion as a quarterback. He won’t be one to line up in the different alignments, but he can come in and be a more prolific passing option that any defense will have to account for.

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