Best Week 15 DFS Picks From PFSN's NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Whenever you start a quarterback on a run-first offense, there's always the risk that the running backs steal all the touchdowns. If that happens, so be it. Still, we can't discount the tremendous opportunity in front of Brock Purdy this week.
The San Francisco 49ers are well rested coming off their bye. As a reward, they get a home date with a Tennessee Titans defense that just gave up 364 yards and four total touchdowns to Shedeur Sanders.
The Titans allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Yes, likely, this game is over after three quarters, limiting what Purdy needs to do in the fourth quarter. But the 49ers still have to get to the point where the game is decided. They are probably good for at least four touchdowns in this one. Christian McCaffrey can't run for all of them.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (vs. BUF)
Did you think this would be TreVeyon Henderson? No, no, no. Mike Vrabel is back to his old tricks, pushing the plodding veteran over the vastly superior and more explosive rookie. As fantasy managers, we have no choice but to play the cards as they are, not how we want them to be.
After being eased in for one week, Rhamondre Stevenson was right back in the lead role before the Patriots' Week 14 bye. He played 58% of the snaps and saw 15 opportunities, the same as Henderson.
While this backfield is more of a split than it was the first time these teams played, that was Stevenson's best game of the season. The veteran back totaled 142 yards on 16 touches, posting 21.2 fantasy points.
The Bills are a run funnel defense. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Of course, that will benefit Henderson as well. He is very much worthy of being in lineups. But don't expect the Patriots to score all of their touchdowns through the air. At the goal line, it is going to be Stevenson, and I expect him to score for the first time since Week 7 this week, which will be enough to give him solid RB2 numbers.
Best DFS Tips and Tricks
There are only 100,000 different views on how to play DFS. Whether you’re chasing a big prize or trying to grind out "cash games" (where nearly half the field gets paid), your personal goals dictate the game you play and thus the strategies you employ.
Playing the flagship contests is fun, but understand that, even with an optimizer, your expected value per lineup isn't going to be great. The most important note for new DFS players is to target the single-entry or three-entry max tournaments.
You want a fair shot at creating the best lineup, and while our optimizer will give you a good chance, the variance game makes your one lineup going against 150 others an equation that won't work in your favor.
As far as lineup construction goes, here is my overarching advice:
- Understand that every slate is different and requires a fresh approach.
- Explore how to stack your daily fantasy lineups.
- Be different in your lineup construction, not crazy.
- Listen to what sportsbooks are telling you.
- Track your progress so you can learn as you go.
- Try many different "lock" options before settling on your favorite.
FAQ
What Is an NFL DFS Optimizer?
The idea of a DFS optimizer is actually quite simple: Take a set of projections, match up the player salaries for the game you're playing, and play around until you find the highest number of projected fantasy points that stays under your budget.
Of course, most main slates (the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. EST games on Sunday) involve 20+ teams and, thus, hundreds of players. Sifting through that many projections by hand is a near-impossible task, so the job of the optimizer is to do it for you! Simply select the site and slate you are playing, lock in any players you are confident in, or rule out any players you are concerned about. From there, the computer does the tedious math and spits out your personal optimized lineup.
How Do I Use a NFL DFS Lineup Generator?
Using the PFSN NFL DFS Optimizer could not be easier.
Start by selecting the site and slate you are playing or planning to play. The optimizer will then give you the player pool to sift through. At this point, you can lock in any players you want in your lineups or rule out any players you want to avoid. Once you are happy, select the number of lineups you want and hit the build button.
The PFSN NFL DFS Optimizer will give you a recommended lineup or lineups, at which point you can remove any players you do not want, and the Optimizer will provide you with suggested replacements. Once you are happy, you can download the lineup(s) as a CSV, which is ready to be uploaded to your selected site.
Why Should You Use a DFS Optimizer for the NFL?
Using an NFL optimizer is a good way to improve at DFS quickly. They say it takes 10,000 hours of practice at a craft to achieve expertise. Would you rather spend those hours doing pen and paper math, or would you rather spend them honing your projection/evaluation skills while the computer sorts through the tedious lineup building?
An optimizer is, naturally, only as good as the information you put into it. It’s not built to offer an opinion or give reasoning. Ours takes into account some variance because football is difficult to predict, but it's a number-crunching machine that allows you to hone your craft in other ways.
What Is the Difference Between DraftKings and FanDuel?
The site in which you play needs to be included into the optimizer because the rules and price points aren't the same. If you're new to the DFS game, here are a few differences between the two powerhouse sites in the industry.
DraftKings
- $50,000 budget
- Full PPR
- 300-yard passing-yardage bonus (3 points)
- 100-yard rushing-yardage bonus (3 points)
- 100-yard receiving-yardage bonus (3 points)
FanDuel
- $60,000 budget
- Half PPR
- No bonuses
It should be clear from these differences that DraftKings will tend to score higher, while FanDuel will place more importance on scoring touchdowns. Those may seem like minor differences, but as you prepare to take on the world, those are nice notes to remember when planning your strategy.
What Are the Different Slates To Choose From?
Each week of the NFL season is different; thus, the slates can be a bit of a moving target. There are (typically) standalone, one-game slates for every prime-time game. Those carry with them a “Captain” roster slot that will cost you 1.5x the salary he usually would, but will also return 1.5x the points he earned.
The ”main slate” is for the day games on Sunday. This is where you’ll see the contests with $1,000,000 as the grand prize, which is the most analyzed slate. Most sites also offer segmented slates for Sunday’s action. You can choose to play in a contest that features only the first wave of NFL games or just the second.
There are different iterations depending on the specific schedule for a given week, but those are the primary contests offered within most DFS circles.