The return of professional football means that there is money to be made!

NFL betting isn’t easy — due to the popularity of the sport, not to mention the legalization of betting, it’s the most efficient market in North America by a wide margin. These Week 1 lines came out during the summer and have been hammered into place over the past few weeks. Gaining an edge requires digging deep on a weekly basis, but at a surface level, understanding the season that each team is coming off of can help.

NFL Betting: 2024 Futures

You’re running low on time to lock in your future bets — allow me to help!

NFL Betting Results From 2023

Every season is a unique animal. Here is some context when it comes to what we saw last season.

Favorites, ATS: 137-119-11 (53.5%, first season over 47.3% since 2017)
Favorites, Outright: 182-85 (68.2%, highest since 2017)
Home Teams, ATS: 130-131-11 (49.8%, fourth straight season finishing 48-50%)
Unders: 146-123-3 (54.3%, third straight winning season)
Quirky Trend: The Colts haven’t covered a Week 1 game since 2014. In 2014, we were only halfway through Game of Thrones, and Mark Jackson was widely questioned for labeling Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as the best shooting backcourt of all time.

NFL Betting: Week 1 Matchups and Trends from 2023

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -2.5
2023 ATS Records: BAL (11-6), KC (9-7-1)
Trend: The Chiefs own the third-lowest average score compared to expectations over the past two seasons (total points: -2.79 below the listed total per game — only the Buccaneers and Jets have a lower mark).

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -2
2023 ATS Records: GB (9-8), PHI (7-8-2)
Trend: The Eagles own the highest average score compared to expectations over the past two seasons (total points: +3.59).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -2
2023 ATS Records: PIT (10-7), ATL (5-12)
Trend: Of the teams playing on the road this Sunday, the Steelers own the highest cover rate when away from home over the past two seasons (64.7%).

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -6.5
2023 ATS Records: ARI (9-8), BUF (7-10)
Trend: Under tickets have come through in eight of Buffalo’s past 10 season openers.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -4
2023 ATS Records: TEN (7-9-1), CHI (8-8-1)
Trend: Over the past 10 seasons, rookie QBs cover 50.8% of the time with overs hitting at a 58.2% rate in September games.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -9
2023 ATS Records: NE (5-11-1), CIN (8-8-1)
Trend: Over the past five Septembers, 14 of 18 Bengals games have come in under the total, the highest rate in the league.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Texans -1.5
2023 ATS Records: HOU (9-8), IND (9-8)
Trend: Over the past two seasons, the Colts are the third worst ATS team in divisional games (only the Cardinals and Commanders have been worse).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.5
2023 ATS Records: JAX (9-8), MIA (10-7)
Trend: Over the past two seasons, the Jaguars cover at a 66.7% rate when the closing total is at least 45 points.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -5
2023 ATS Records: CAR (5-11-1), NO (6-10-1)
Trend: In terms of points scored in their games over the past two seasons, these two teams both rank in the bottom quarter of the league.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Spread: Vikings -1
2023 ATS Records: MIN (7-7-3), NYG (8-8-1)
Trend: The Vikings cover 66.7% of games over the past two seasons when the closing total is under 45 points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3
2023 ATS Records: LV (10-6-1), LAC (6-11)
Trend: The Chargers are the best Week 1 ATS team since 2012 (8-2-2).

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -5
2023 ATS Records: DEN (6-10-1), SEA (8-7-2)
Trend: Since 2022, the Broncos cover 30.8% of the time when the game goes over the closing total (down from 45% in unders).

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -2
2023 ATS Records: DAL (10-7), CLE (10-6-1)
Trend: Over the past two seasons, the Cowboys are the best team in terms of average points above the spread (+4.46 — only two other teams are even at +3).

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
2023 ATS Records: WAS (6-10-1), TB (11-6)
Trend: No team that is at home this week has a worse cover rate in front of their home fans since the start of 2022 than the Buccaneers (31.3%).

Who has been profitable to back at home?

A few surprises in the Top 5 … pic.twitter.com/Gob8N9mkvu

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3.5
2023 ATS Records: LAR (9-7-1), DET (12-5)
Trend: The Lions are the best ATS team since Jared Goff came to town (68.6%,). For reference, the Rams over that stretch have covered 46.9% of their games (23rd).

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -5
2023 ATS Records: SF (9-7-1), NYJ (6-10-1)
Trend: The 49ers have covered 70.6% of games that go over the closing point total over the past two seasons, the highest rate in the league.

NFL Betting Week 1: A 2023 Summary, Game Notes, and a Bizarre Trend at Play