The Comeback Player of the Year award is potentially the most unpredictable of any of the NFL awards because players can come from relative obscurity to win it. Just look at last year, when Joe Flacco wasn’t even listed in the odds for the majority of the season but ended up winning it. Could we have another player come from nowhere to stake a claim?
It has now been back-to-back seasons that a quarterback has won Comeback Player of the Year after reinvigorating his career with a new team. That is why Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, and Justin Fields are all in the top 15 when it comes to the sportsbook odds. Further down the odds, you can find Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Jameis Winston, and Gardner Minshew.
The more natural path to winning CPOY is a return from injury, which is reflected this year. Five of the top six among the favorites are QBs returning from injuries: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson, and Daniel Jones. Justin Herbert also missed time last year and now enters the preseason with an injury, making him another intriguing name for that list.
Let’s examine the odds for Comeback Player of the Year in 2024 and see who our betting experts believe could win a trophy at the end of the season.
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award?
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Aug. 5. Any player not listed as odds greater than +6500.
- Aaron Rodgers +125
- Joe Burrow +300
- Kirk Cousins +500
- Anthony Richardson +600
- Nick Chubb +850
- Daniel Jones +1600
- Sam Darnold +2500
- Kyler Murray +2500
- Deshaun Wilson +2500
- Russell Wilson +3000
- Tank Dell +4000
- Justin Fields +4000
- Justin Herbert +4000
- J.K. Dobbins +5000
- Jacoby Brissett +6000
- Bryce Young +6500
- Keaton Mitchell +6500
Top Picks To Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year
This year’s field is intriguing, with several different storylines.
Rodgers makes sense as the natural favorite, given the hype around him in the bright lights of a New York team in a stacked AFC. Burrow feels the more natural fit, partly because we’ve seen this story before when he won it in 2021. Cousins also has a nice story, given his injury, and hoping to turn around a Falcons franchise that has had plenty of suffering in the last decade.
I can go down the list and make a case for the entire top 10 and probably even deeper, but this award has recently rewarded players who have overcome career adversity.
Last year, one of the names discussed among the options was Baker Mayfield for his career rival in Tampa Bay. In 2022, it was Geno Smith for a similar reason. The common theme in those two players? Now Carolina Panthers’ head coach Dave Canales.
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That narrative puts Bryce Young on my radar at +6500. It was a tough start for Young, as he struggled in his rookie season in Carolina. A 2-14 record, a 59.8% completion rate, and an 11-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio were not what he would have hoped for after being the first overall pick. The change to Canales could be the remedy to kick-start his young career.
I’m not sure that Young has the team around him to ultimately get it over the line, but a handful of dollars on a +6500 longshot with a clear narrative to how he can win this award has me intrigued.
Pick: Bryce Young +6500
– Ben Rolfe, Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
The Comeback Player of the Year award is another very unpredictable market. Last year, Damar Hamlin opened around -400 to win it. He was the favorite all season long until a few impressive games from Flacco earned him the honors. As a reminder, Flacco wasn’t even listed as an option until midway through the season, when he took over as the Browns’ starting quarterback.
There’s a very real chance the player who ultimately wins this award is not bettable at the moment. Among the options that are, we can easily dismiss a couple of them.
Rodgers at +125 is just too short of odds for a universally disliked person coming off a devastating injury at the age of 40. The former is also why no one should realistically consider putting any money on Deshaun Watson. I don’t care if 2019 Watson walks through that door; it would be a stunner if the voters gave it to him.
Richardson is also a ridiculous option because what is he “coming back” from? The guy played four games, two of which he left early in. Breakout player? Sure. Comeback player? No way.
I also don’t think Kyler Murray can win it because he came back from his injury last season, and that will be held against him.
I’m choosing between Burrow and Cousins. Both ended the season on injured reserve with serious injuries, but both are expected to lead their teams to the playoffs this season.
If we’re betting on who will have the better year, my money is on Burrow. But at +300, that just doesn’t feel long enough. So give me Cousins in what should be a pass-friendly Falcons offense where 5,000 yards is within his range of outcomes.
Pick: Kirk Cousins +500
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Chubb tore his ACL and MCL in September, an injury that raised career concerns. Well, preseason workouts with him squatting more weight than my gym carries dispelled that notion. And while I’m not sure when Chubb will return to game action, I feel good about it being this season.
Last year, we saw that this award takes into account timing. Flacco took home the honor last season, and I think there’s a chance we see Chubb make a similar late push this winter.
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Sportsbooks have this as the most competitive division from top to bottom (it’s the only division without a team that pays at least 10-1 to win it), which means the December games are going to be impactful.
In looking at Cleveland’s schedule, the Browns close the regular season with four straight games against high-powered offenses (KC, CIN, MIA, and BAL), where the run game will be relied upon heavily to keep them competitive.
Less than 12 months ago, Chubb was praised as maybe the best pure runner in the league. He was coming off a season in which he set career highs in rushing yards (1,525) and rushing scores (12). If that version of him is available in December, he’s more than live to win this award.
Pick: Nick Chubb +850
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst