The AFC South ended up being one of the most intriguing divisions in the NFL last year, with the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Indianapolis Colts scrapping it out for the division crown. While it would be the Texans who ultimately came out on top, things are set up nicely for 2024, with all three teams set to do battle again.
Ahead of the start of the regular season, what are the AFC South odds, and how do our betting experts see things playing out? Will it be a repeat for the Texans, can the Jaguars or Colts enact revenge, or could the Tennessee Titans play surprise-spoiler?
What Are the AFC South Odds To Win the Division?
- Houston Texans +105
- Jacksonville Jaguars +275
- Indianapolis Colts +310
- Tennessee Titans +1000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Aug. 15.
Top Picks in the AFC South
Two years ago, the Jaguars surprised everyone by taking the division from the Titans’ vice grip. Last year, the Texans stole it from the Jaguars. This year, if there’s a team to do it again, it should be the Colts.
This is an interesting one because I believe in C.J. Stroud. He’s already a top-five quarterback, and his offense is even better this season. It’s very possible we look back on this line midway through the season and wonder how we were getting better than even money.
My pick to win this division is Houston. I got them at +110 a few months ago, but +105 is fine as well.
However, if you want longer odds, the play is not the Jaguars and their historically overrated quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. No, Lawrence is not bad. It’s just the perception and confidence in his ability is nowhere near reality.
Jacksonville shouldn’t be the second favorite in this division. It should be Indianapolis. And at +310, that’s pretty good value.
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The reason I didn’t take the Colts is two-fold. First, I genuinely believe the Texans are going to dominate the AFC South for the next decade, and we’ll never see odds this short again. Second, the better way to play the Colts if you are a believer is to take over 8.5 wins.
It’s going to take at least nine wins to capture the division. Indianapolis could possibly win 10 or 11 games and still come up short. Yes, the odds are far better on them to win the division, but over 8.5 is a much safer bet that can hit even if Houston runs away with this.
Pick: Texans +105
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Three teams in this division posted winning records last season, and while there’s a chance that repeats, I like the improvements made by two of those teams over the third.
Houston has made it clear that it’s here to win now with Stroud on his rookie contract. The Texans brought in veteran playmakers on offense (Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon), earning them the label of favorites to repeat as champions of the AFC South.
As for who they are battling with, the Colts are operating under a similar assumption — that they have their franchise quarterback and can score enough points to win ball games.
Getting a healthy Anthony Richardson for a team that won nine games largely without the physical specimen is a nice boost, and all signs point to them being one of the 10 best offenses in the NFL.
Michael Pittman Jr. re-signed, and then Indy spent four of their first five picks on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts have a clear strength and have pushed their chips in the middle of the table on it.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, let two of their receivers walk, a concerning trend for a team that fell apart last winter after a strong start (1-5 after an 8-3 start).
I like Lawrence as much as anyone, but this division is going to require scoring points in bunches, and I have Jacksonville a distant third in the ability to do that. Should it come to it, the Colts get the Jags on their home turf to end the regular season.
Pick: Texans/Colts to finish as the top two teams (+210 at DraftKings)
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
I’ll start by saying the Texans are the best team in the division. They stole it last year and have gotten better in the offseason.
However, they’re not the team I’m going to bet on to win the AFC South. Confused? Good.
There just isn’t any value in taking Houston at +105. You need to give me more than one Cinderella season with a rookie QB to be around even money to win. They might get there, but my confidence isn’t high enough.
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I also don’t want any part of the Jaguars. My longer-s+hot pick is the Colts, who have many weapons on offense, return a healthy Richardson, and have a very underrated coach in Shane Steichen.
Steichen was the man behind the dynamic Eagles offense in their NFC Championship year in 2022 and should turn Richardson into a star. At +310, you’re getting good value on a team that won nine times with Richardson missing most of the season.
Pick: Colts to win division (+310)
– David Bearman, Chief Content Officer
