As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, one of the most intriguing betting markets is around who will win the MVP award. With an intriguing field, let’s take a look at the top candidate from each team to potentially raise the trophy on stage at NFL Honors in February.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each Team
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (+5000)
We don’t need to overthink this one. Kyler Murray is the star of the Arizona Cardinals, and for the team to compete in the NFC West, he will need to be the driving force behind that.
Murray returned in Week 10 of the 2023 season, and from that point on, the Cardinals averaged 362.8 yards per game on offense, with averages of 210 passing yards and 22.4 offensive points scored per game. Without Murray, those numbers were 289.7, 162.7, and 16.0, respectively.
That is a stark contrast. That change in success is also shown in the results, with the Cardinals going 3-5 with Murray, compared to 1-8 without him.
Sure, extrapolating 3-5 over the course of a season isn’t winning you an MVP award, but combining it with the growth of this team under Jonathan Gannon and 10+ wins is firmly in the picture if Murray is healthy.
Without him, 10 wins wouldn’t be considered, which is why he’s the Cardinals’ MVP candidate.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (+3500)
The Falcons won seven games with this same nucleus of skill-position players and elected to burn their first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to contribute to success immediately.
Of course, Kirk Cousins was Atlanta’s big move this offseason, and if the Falcons win double-digit games like the betting markets expect, he’ll be the one given credit.
Since 2020, Cousins has ranked fifth in passing yards per game and fourth in passer rating among qualifiers, proof that he can put up the numbers required for consideration. If you’re looking for a long shot with an actual path to cashing an MVP ticket, Cousins makes for an interesting dart throw (+3500).
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson (+1500)
Back-to-back MVP awards aren’t unheard of — five players have combined to win them six times (Peyton Manning did it twice).
Can Lamar Jackson join that list? I think he’s the most likely Raven to earn the award, but there’s a reason he’s only sixth in the betting markets.
The addition of Derrick Henry this offseason is great for Baltimore but a net negative for Jackson’s MVP case. The Ravens don’t have much room for their team success to increase and while Jackson is a uniquely gifted player, he benefited greatly from injuries/slumps to other QBs in the MVP conversation.
– Soppe
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (+900)
Josh Allen has to eventually win one of these, right?
He’s now finished fifth, third, and second in MVP voting in three of the past four years. No one can convince me he shouldn’t have won it last season, throwing for 29 touchdowns and rushing for 15. Allen completely carried the Bills to the playoffs after the team looked dead and buried.
With the loss of Stefon Diggs, everyone seems to be writing the Bills off as serious contenders. This team hinges on Allen. He’s more than capable of carrying a weak supporting cast because he’s that good.
At +900, Allen is still tied with Joe Burrow as the third favorite. So, the odds aren’t great. But I truly believe if Buffalo didn’t choke away a few games last year and wound up going 13-4 or 14-3, Allen would’ve won it. He still has the “never won it before” thing going for him. Plus, there’s quite literally no one else on the Bills even remotely capable.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young (+15000)
It’s well known that no one on the Panthers is likely to win MVP, but if by some miracle this team wins 12+ games, who is most likely to win it? Bryce Young.
The sophomore QB is the key to Carolina’s success. Young needs to take a massive step forward if the Panthers are going to be competitive.
Of course, him winning MVP is one of the least likely outcomes. There’s a reason he’s +15000. The Hail Mary case is that this is last year’s No. 1 overall pick.
Young was chosen first overall for a reason. That talent was evident in spots last year, and it may continue into this year as well.
Is Young capable of the season needed to win MVP? Probably not. But there’s exactly a 0% chance anyone else on Carolina who could win MVP.
– Katz
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (+5000)
Of all the additions the Chicago Bears have made this offseason, the only player who will likely be credited with leading their success, if they have any, is rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
The Bears decided to move on from Justin Fields and draft Williams first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Barring injury, he will almost certainly start this season.
Williams has been put in the best position of arguably any top-five selection at the QB position ever. Chicago added Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift in free agency and then drafted Rome Odunze. That has surrounded Williams with a wealth of talent, which should help this offense to click in 2024.
While Swift is a good running back, and both Allen and Moore are wonderful pass catchers, none is likely to have a Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill-level impact. Therefore, if anyone is going to receive the MVP award in Chicago, it will be Williams.
– Rolfe
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (+900)
Joe Burrow put up the worst numbers of his career through 10 games, then suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Yet, per DraftKings, he’s still tied for the third-best odds to win the NFL MVP award.
With all due respect to Ja’Marr Chase, no other player is in the same solar system when it comes to his value to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Playing at an elite level, as Burrow did in the 2021 run to Super Bowl LVI and the return trip to the AFC Championship Game in 2022, should be enough proof of Burrow’s value to the franchise.
But if you need more, consider what the team looked like, losing three of its first four, when Burrow was compromised with the calf injury to start 2023.
Or look at what happened when he went out with the wrist injury. Jake Browning came in and played better than anyone could have imagined, putting up historic numbers for a quarterback in his first few starts in addition to leading the league in completion percentage. And the Bengals still went 4-3 with him at the helm.
– Jay Morrison, Cincinnati Bengals Beat Writer
Cleveland Browns: Amari Cooper (+30000)
Skill position players are never a great bet to win the award. That said, if someone from Cleveland is going to make a push, it’s the team’s WR1 in Amari Cooper. For his career, he averages 7.7 targets per game (131 per 17 games).
If we simply pull out the napkin and do a little math, that could result in a monster season. If we assume 131 targets for Cooper and extrapolate his production when Deshaun Watson was throwing him the ball last season — we are talking about 94 receptions for 1,611 yards.
For Cooper to pull off this monumental upset, the Browns would have to run hot and impress at the tail end of the season. Well, they finish with four straight games against high-powered offenses where they are going to need to put up points (Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, and Ravens).
If Cooper has a huge game and the Browns win the division because of a win in Baltimore on the final day of the regular season … maybe?
– Soppe
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (+1700)
The only answer here is Dak Prescott at +1700. Last season, he finished second in MVP voting behind Lamar Jackson.
Prescott is capable of the type of season needed to win MVP. He led the NFL in touchdown passes last year with 36. Back in 2020, Prescott was on pace to shatter the passing yards record before breaking his ankle. Prolific passing is in his repertoire.
This year, the Cowboys have their weakest backfield since the Troy Hambrick days. Even with Tony Pollard, we saw them go pass-heavy over the second half of last season because the run just wasn’t working. With Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott could attempt 650 passes.
If Prescott throws for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns while leading the Cowboys to at least 12 wins and a division title, combined with the fact that he’s never won it, Prescott is certainly capable of winning MVP.
– Katz
Denver Broncos: Patrick Surtain II (+100000)
You have to go back to 1986 to find the last defensive player to win NFL MVP, which was when Lawrence Taylor took home the award. That season, Lawrence had 20.5 sacks as the New York Giants went 14-2 on their way to winning the NFC East, the NFC, and Super Bowl XXI.
Patrick Surtain’s path to the MVP award would look a little different, mainly because he is not sacking anyone. For Surtain to have any chance in the conversation, he would likely need to come close to setting a single-season record for interceptions (15) and pick-sixes (6) and probably also need to contribute on special teams with some kick or punt return touchdowns.
Even then, the Broncos’ path to a double-digit win season is slim, and it is hard to imagine a defensive player on a 9-8 win team taking home the MVP. It could happen, but it isn’t necessarily likely.
If the Broncos do surprise and make the playoffs with Surtain posting huge numbers, it is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t be betting on it.
– Rolfe
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (+2000)
It’s only a matter of time until we change the labeling of this award to the MVQB: 16 of the past 17 winners have been signal callers, including a current run of 11 straight. Taking snaps is the first unofficial qualifier for this honor, and not far behind is team success, as only once since 2003 has the MVP gone to a quarterback leading a team that lost more than four games during the regular season.
In that vein, I labeled my betting pool as the quarterbacks on the top-10 teams in terms of implied win totals. The QBs who have hoisted the trophy have been heavily relied upon, rarely sharing a backfield with a heavily involved traditional back. In fact, over the past decade, the lead running back playing alongside the MVP averaged 949.2 rushing yards for the season.
It’s time to start eliminating names. Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers all checked the implied wins box, but all have a star RB whose rushing yardage total is posted at or above 975.
With six names remaining on my list, I elected to look at how these quarterbacks have produced their video game numbers.
MVP winners
- 2014-19: 9.0 average depth of target (aDOT)
- 2020-23: 7.8 average depth of target
This trend helps me eliminate four more names. We need volume statistics, and these short passes have proven to be the best way of doing that.
Gone is C.J. Stroud (aDOT rose by 21% in the second half of his season, and Year 2 QBs have posted a higher aDOT than Year 1 QBs over the past decade). The award’s favorite, Patrick Mahomes, has a downward-trending aDOT, but the construction of this roster hints that we could see that change in 2024.
The general perception of the Buffalo Bills after Joe Brady took over was one of conservative nature, but Josh Allen’s aDOT actually rose by 8.3% after the change in OC (not to mention that James Cook averaged 16.7 carries per game over that stretch and is someone I’d bet to clear that 950 rushing yard threshold from earlier).
Dak Prescott saw his aDOT increase last season and posted the highest deep ball completion percentage of his career. With the Cowboys allowing pressure at the fifth-lowest rate, the time to throw those passes makes him a good bet to produce similar numbers this season.
That’s right, this is a Joe Burrow vs. Jared Goff situation for me. I think Burrow is the greater talent, but there is certainly more health risk in his profile. Beyond that, 35.3% of NFL games are played within your own division.
AFC North Defensive EPA Ranks
- Browns: 1st
- Ravens: 3rd
- Steelers: 7th
NFC North Defensive EPA Ranks
- Bears: 14th
- Vikings: 20th
- Packers: 23rd
AFC North opponents allowed 66.3% of yards to come through the air compared to 68.4% by the NFC North. This isn’t directly a fantasy football-based award, though eye-popping statistics certainly help. With divisional games backloaded, Goff could separate himself down the stretch much like Jackson did last season.
– Soppe
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (+1400)
Jordan Love jumped out of the shadow of Aaron Rodgers with an impressive 2023 season, his first as a starter. Love finished with 32 touchdowns and 4,159 yards as the Green Bay Packers ended the year with a 9-8 record. That performance in his first season has meant that Love heads into the 2024 season with the fifth-shortest odds of any MVP candidate.
For that to become a reality, we need to see further growth from Love and the Packers’ offense, as they finished in the middle of the pack in a number of offensive categories last year. One area that they could easily improve is their red-zone efficiency.
Per TruMedia, the Packers ranked 19th in the league with a 51.6% conversion rate of red-zone opportunities to touchdowns, despite having a 95% conversion rate on goal-to-go opportunities. If Love and the Packers can get into the top 10 in red-zone efficiency, they will put themselves in the conversations with the elite offenses and put Love firmly in the MVP discussion.
– Rolfe
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (+850)
After winning Offensive Rookie of the Year last season and receiving mention as a potential MVP candidate, it is no surprise to see C.J. Stroud among the favorites for the MVP award heading into the 2024 season. A lot changed for the Houston Texans last year, but Stroud was the on-field face of the changes in the offense.
When you compare the 2023 offense to the 2022 offense, the contrast is stark. An increase of 4.8 points per game alongside a nearly 60-yard increase in yards per game are fantastic numbers. However, the beauty is that there is more room to grow, leaving Stroud an opportunity to put together an even better second act.
Last year, the Texans ranked 12th in yards per game (342.4) and 15th in offensive points per game (20.9). When you look at the underlying stats, they were 16th in red-zone efficiency (54.7%), 14th in goal-line efficiency (72.4%), and 19th in third-down conversion percentage (37.9%). Improving those to be among the top-10 numbers in the league could make the Texans one of the most potent offenses in the league and deliver Stroud an MVP award.
– Rolfe
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson (+3000)
For many of these teams, the player most likely to win the MVP award doesn’t actually have any realistic chance. I actually think Anthony Richardson at +3000 is the single best longshot pick to win the award.
It seems impossible right now. What has Richardson done? He played all of four games as a rookie, two of which he left early. But Richardson is the perfect candidate to have a surprise 2018 Lamar Jackson-like season.
His combination of rushing and passing is best compared to Cam Newton, who won MVP in 2015. Richardson is like a souped-up Newton who, in theory, should be a better passer.
What if Richardson throws for 30 touchdowns while running for another 10? The Colts win 12+ games and the division. It’s not that improbable. At +3000, I want to take a shot on Richardson.
– Katz
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (+3000)
Trevor Lawrence enters 2024 with the security of a new contract, but with a lot still to prove. He was somewhat given a pass for the debacle of the Urban Meyer-led season as a rookie, and in some ways, you could look at it that his pro career is really only two years old. People often talk about QBs taking that leap in their third season, and Lawrence is arguably entering that season now.
The step up from 2021 to 2022 was impressive, and Lawrence finished seventh in the MVP voting, thanks in large part to the Jacksonville Jaguars finishing strong to snatch the AFC South title.
Narratives are often a big part of the MVP award, and that is shown in last year’s case. The Jaguars finished with the same 9-8 record as in 2022 but went 1-6 down the stretch as opposed to 6-1 the previous season.
If Lawrence can take that next step in his development by crossing the 30 touchdown mark, while cutting down on the mistakes, he will undoubtedly be in the MVP conversation. It is pretty well accepted that the fortunes of a team are tied to their QB, and we can see that in last year’s numbers.
In games the Jaguars won, Lawrence’s stats were a 70.5% completion rate, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and a 2.8 touchdown to interception ratio with just four 0.5 interceptions per game. In contrast, in losses, his stats were a 63% completion rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a 1.1 touchdown to interception ratio with 1.25 interceptions per game.
If Lawrence can tidy up his game in 2024, the Jaguars should finish with double-digit wins, and essentially, as a result, he will be firmly in the discussion for the MVP award.
– Rolfe
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (+475)
As a two-time NFL MVP in the last six seasons, it does not take much extrapolating to see how Patrick Mahomes can win the award for a third time. We can simply compare what he did in 2018 and 2022 to the years he missed out on the award to see what kind of statistical numbers Mahomes has to put up in 2024.
In the two seasons he won the MVP, Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns with 50 and 41, respectively. Those two seasons were not his best in terms of protecting the ball, demonstrating that the positive plays are a bigger element in Mahomes’ candidacy than the negative. In 2018 and 2022, Mahomes also led the league in ESPN’s QBR.
The team outcome is not a major part of Mahomes’ MVP candidacy because the Chiefs finished 14-2 in 2020, and he finished third in the voting.
The bigger element is avoiding poor performances in primetime or spotlight games, as we saw on Christmas Day last year. In a national game, Mahomes seemingly melted down at home and largely dropped out of the MVP conversation in that moment.
The path to Mahomes’s MVP award win is easy, but the value at +475 leaves little room for error. If you want to back Mahomes, you are better off waiting until he has a rough game and looking for longer odds. It is not a guarantee that he will have a bad game, but I believe we will see odds longer than +500 at some point this year.
– Rolfe
Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams (+40000)
When the quarterback position lacks star power, it opens an opportunity for other positions to shine as the best player on the team from an MVP candidacy perspective. In Las Vegas, that candidate is Davante Adams, but the path to Adams winning MVP is not an easy one to figure out.
Entering the 2022 season, Adams was set to benefit personally from being out of Aaron Rodgers’s shadow. In 2020, Adams scored 18 touchdowns, but not only did he not get a single MVP vote, he did not even get a single Offensive Player of the Year vote.
However, in his first year in Las Vegas in 2022, Adams led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns but still was not considered for the MVP or OPOY award. It is not like the Las Vegas Raiders were ignored, with Josh Jacobs finishing fifth in OPOY voting, it was just Adams did not get the votes.
Therefore, Adams has to be looking at needing to post close to 2,000 receiving yards or 20+ receiving touchdowns to receive serious MVP consideration. A relative lack of competition at the WR position will help, but with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell throwing him the ball, posting those gaudy numbers is a tough ask for a 31-year-old receiver.
– Rolfe
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert (+2200)
Selecting Justin Herbert here was not actually as clear-cut as it could have been. While Herbert is undoubtedly a star, the combination of a preseason injury and the change of coaching staff could hurt his chances.
Jim Harbaugh’s last spell in the NFL saw him lean heavily on a power run game, which could take away from the big number Herbert would need to post to win MVP.
While Herbert can move around and make plays with his legs, he is not known as a mobile quarterback. Therefore, it is not like he can make his MVP case by being a dual-threat quarterback.
If the offensive style of Harbaugh and Greg Roman take the ball out of Herbert’s hands more than previously, he may lack the opportunity to stake an MVP claim.
The problem is that there is no other obvious candidate on the roster to step into the breach. Gus Edwards is not a Christian McCaffrey-style player, and J.K. Dobbins may be limited as he returns from injury. Similarly, at WR, there is no Tyreek Hill-style player who could dominate the headlines and put themselves in the frame.
That leaves Herbert as the top option. But at his current odds, he is a player I am avoiding when considering betting on the MVP award.
– Rolfe
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (+20000)
When you look at the MVP betting odds, it is Matthew Stafford getting the most respect among the Los Angeles Rams players. While I understand it, recent history suggests that is not the right call here. In the last two years, Stafford has missed 10 games, and his play has been less than stellar when he has been on the field.
Maybe having both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp together all season could change that, but I am not banking on it.
Similarly, I cannot make the case for either Kupp or Nacua to be the MVP simply because I believe they will take from each other too much. If someone in the passing game wins the MVP award, it will likely be Stafford, which leaves me looking to the run game.
Kyren Williams broke out in a big way last season, with 1,144 rushing yards, 206 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns. Yes, he also missed time through injury, and that is always a risk with a running back. But Williams has that McCaffrey profile you look for in a non-QB MVP candidate.
If he can average around 20 carries per game and increase his targets per game to five or more, Williams could be the star of this Rams offense. It is rightly a long shot, but if you were betting on a non-McCaffrey RB to win the award, Williams would be my pick.
– Rolfe
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (+2500)
Tyreek Hill is the two-time defending team MVP.
But the only Dolphins player with a realistic chance of winning it at the league level is Miami’s new $212 million man: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who at +2500 has the NFL’s 13th-shortest odds to take home the hardware.
Those odds certainly reflect some doubt about Tagovailoa’s ability to stay healthy (he’s only played a full season once in his career) and his ability to beat the NFL’s best (he went 1-6 against playoff teams in 2023).
But those odds also are dragged down by betting ambivalence about the Dolphins’ chances as a team.
They’re +2200 to win the Super Bowl and just 10-to-1 to capture the AFC’s 1 seed. If the Dolphins can meaningfully surpass their 9.5 wins total line, Tagovailoa has a real chance to become the first Miami player to win MVP in four decades
– Adam Beasley, Miami Dolphins Beat Writer
Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson (+13000)
Trends are made to be broken, and if the Vikings win the NFC North, we have a decent chance of getting the first receiver to earn MVP honors.
Justin Jefferson has done everything and more than you could ask for through four seasons, setting records every step of the way. If he can drag this team to the postseason with a journeyman or rookie under center, a star tight end on the shelf to start the season, and his WR2 in legal hot water — he’d be well deserving of the MVP.
Outside of Jefferson, what is Minnesota’s path to success in 2024?
– Soppe
New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson (+50000)
A defensive player hasn’t won MVP since 1986, and a receiver has never won the award. The Patriots don’t have anyone who could buck those trends, especially with Christian Barmore potentially facing a lost season due to blood clots.
As for quarterback, Drake Maye could be a decent pick, but he would likely need to play a full season to have a shot. Through a week of Patriots training camp, he looks more likely to redshirt the season than compete for any award.
So, the pick here is Rhamondre Stevenson, arguably the best offensive player on the team. He racked up 1,461 all-purpose yards in six total TDs in 2022 before injuries limited his production in 2023. If he can stay healthy, he has the ability to put up a monster campaign for an offense that will heavily rely on the running game.
– Dakota Randall, New England Patriots Beat Writer
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (+40000)
I find it hard to envision Derek Carr standing on the stage at NFL Honors in February, holding the NFL MVP award. His profile as a signal-caller does not fit that mold, and that means I am looking elsewhere for my MVP candidate from the New Orleans Saints.
A couple of years ago, Taysom Hill might have been that thought, simply because of the X-factor potential, but those days have now passed.
That leaves us with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave as the two main options. Kamara certainly has the McCaffrey prototype we would look for, but I doubt his ability to stay healthy for 17 games, which is what he would need.
That leads me to Olave, who will officially become the Saints’ center of attention following Michael Thomas’s departure this offseason. Olave has flashed his potential through two seasons with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and a fourth-placed finish in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2022.
The biggest improvement would need to come in his ability to find the end zone. With just nine touchdowns in two seasons, that career number would likely need to double in 2024, combined with more than 1,500 receiving yards.
– Rolfe
New York Giants: Daniel Jones (+15000)
Daniel Jones may well be one of the most confounding QBs to play the game in recent years. Sometimes he looks incredible, a match-winner that can turn games with his arm or legs, and put the team on his back. At other times he looks like a player in his rookie season, making bizarre mistakes and being chewed out by his coach on the sideline.
However, his X-factor potential gives him the New York Giants’ best chance of winning the MVP award this season.
In 2022, Jones found the end zone seven times with his legs while rushing for 708 yards. If he can combine that with a performance akin to his rookie season in terms of passing the ball (24 touchdowns and 232.8 passing yards per game), then he will be somewhere close to the conversation.
I am not saying Jones is anywhere near as talented as Lamar Jackson, but it is the Jackson model of MVP that we have to look at with Jones. Jackson’s MVP awards have come without him throwing for 40+ touchdowns or for 4,000 yards. Last year he finished with numbers of 3,678 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns. He didn’t even rush for 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns. He was just efficient.
A realistic stat line for Jones to win MVP would be 3.500+ passing yards, 25-30 passing touchdowns, 800+ rushing yards, and 8-10 rushing touchdowns, while also avoiding costly mistakes. He would also need to lead his team to a 12- or 13-win season, which is unlikely.
I am not saying anyone should bet on Jones for MVP, but there is a path for the ultimate comeback story for the Giants’ much-maligned QB.
– Rolfe
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers (+1600)
Like the Falcons, albeit in a much more high-profile situation, votes for the Jets are likely to follow the “what has changed” narrative.
Garrett Wilson might well take a massive step forward, and Breece Hall’s duality might actually be the most valuable component of this offense. But should this team develop into a Super Bowl contender in Aaron Rodgers’ first true season at the helm, he’ll be the one given the credit.
I’m not sure this team is structured to allow Rodgers to put up the needed numbers to earn his fifth MVP, but the wins could pile up, and that puts him in the mix to tie Peyton Manning’s record for times honored with this award.
– Soppe
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (+1500)
After an MVP-worthy performance in 2022, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts took a step back last season. Yet, following the hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Hurts is due for a bounce-back year in 2024.
Hurts is surrounded by a plethora of offensive weapons, including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. Moore could prove to be Philadelphia’s most notable offseason addition, though.
Moore’s offensive scheme excels in several areas where Hurts struggled last season, especially against the blitz. If Hurts embraces Moore’s system and takes a step forward, the 25-year-old quarterback should be an MVP candidate in 2024.
– Anthony DiBona, Pro Football Network NFL Writer
Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Fields (+12000)
The Pittsburgh Steelers do not have an obvious MVP candidate anywhere on their roster. However, you could argue for four players: Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, T.J. Watt, and George Pickens. We know what Watt brings to the table, but we also know that a 22.5-sack season in 2021 could not even get a look in when it comes to MVP voting.
Pickens is likely the only skill-position player with a shot because of the committee situation at RB, but he would need to post massive numbers while playing with two different QBs for him to get the credit. If he posts monster numbers with either Wilson or Fields under center for the entire season, they will get the credit.
That brings us to the QBs, and of the two, Fields is the player with the profile to win MVP. It would require him to start at least 14 games, which is not a given, but if he does, his dual-threat ability makes it possible. Essentially, you would be looking at a Lamar Jackson-style stat line for Fields, where he puts together a solid passing profile supplemented with strong rushing numbers.
The case for Fields is essentially the one I made for Jones a little bit above. Pass for 3,500+ passing yards with somewhere close to 30 passing touchdowns, minimize the mistakes, and rush for 8-10 touchdowns and 800-1,000 rushing yards. That still might not be enough, but it would get him in the discussion.
– Rolfe
San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (+4000)
Brock Purdy had a top-10 season in terms of efficiency in 2023 — the top-10 in the history of the sport, not just in the scope of last season — and guess what? He finished second on his own team in the MVP voting.
Like it or not, the voters made it known last season that they view Christian McCaffrey as the reason this offense is so productive, and I have a hard time seeing that change. It’s rare that a running back is the betting favorite from a playoff team to win this award, and the sportsbooks actually give Purdy better odds.
However, that may actually make McCaffrey a solid value, given how the voters viewed the McCaffrey-Purdy split in terms of importance to the team last year.
Can McCaffrey score 20+ touchdowns again? Amazingly, it is hard to say definitely that he will not. Both Purdy and McCaffrey and solid MVP options, but while both play well, neither may actually be able to win the award.
– Soppe
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith (+12000)
The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams where no one stands out as an obvious MVP candidate. Geno Smith would need a remarkable year to take home the award because we saw that a 30-touchdown season with over 4,250 passing yards was only good enough for ninth in 2022.
Counting against him that season was likely that the Seahawks finished 9-8, so a similar statistical profile with a 12-5 finish might get him close to the top five.
It is a big question whether Smith can do that with a new coaching staff after Pete Carroll’s departure this offseason. We already saw Smith take a slight step back when Dave Canales departed ahead of 2023, but will this latest change reinvigorate him or further that downward movement?
However, Smith is the clear favorite among the Seahawks to be an MVP candidate. Kenneth Walker III is very good, but is likely to share his role too much to take home a trophy. Similarly, at WR, they have three very talented WRs, but the presence of three high-quality WRs means that it is unlikely any of them could stand out enough to win the MVP award.
– Rolfe
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (+7500)
We just discussed Canales’ impact on Smith’s statistics, and the story is somewhat similar for Baker Mayfield.
The veteran QB had a career year as the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Canales as his offensive coordinator, but now he has to adapt to a different coach, and that is a major concern.
In what was a relatively weak MVP field last year, 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns did not even put Mayfield in the picture for votes. Sure, he got consideration for Comeback Player of the Year, but the statistical bar is much lower for that award.
Therefore, we would need to see Mayfield post a 35+ touchdown season, and probably add 500+ passing yards. Doing so would change the narrative of Mayfield’s career entirely.
Mayfield is the clear favorite to be the leading Buccaneers’ player in the MVP voting, mainly because there is no other stand-out candidate. However, it would require him to add around 10-15% on top of what were already career-high numbers in 2023.
– Rolfe
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis (+15000)
Trying to pinpoint a Tennessee Titans player who could be an MVP candidate was extremely tough. Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins will likely take too much from each other for consideration, and the same could be said for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The defense lacks a star with 20+ sacks, and while you could theoretically make a case for L’Jarius Sneed, it would be highly unlikely.
That takes us to Will Levis, who the Titans selected 33rd overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. After a rough year in 2023, Levis is an extreme long shot to win MVP because it is not even a guarantee he will be the Titans’ starter all season.
Even looking back on Levis’ college career does not give much insight into how he could win an MVP award. He had just 33 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in his two years at Kentucky. Additionally, he did not provide much-added value with his legs, which is what that passing profile would need.
– Rolfe
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (+12000)
It’s certainly not likely, but there’s a world in which Jayden Daniels, if fully unleashed, produces numbers that look something like Lamar Jackson’s from 2023 (3,678 passing yards, 821 rushing yards, and 29 total touchdowns).
Of course, he’d need the Commanders to win every close game and earn a spot in the playoffs to even appear on the ballot, but if we’re talking pie-in-the-sky situations in which that happens, their rookie quarterback is going to be at the center of it and would be the second rookie in the league’s history to earn MVP honors (Jim Brown in 1957).
– Soppe