AFC East Odds 2024: Dolphins, Jets, and Bills Set To Battle It Out for Supremacy

The AFC East odds for 2024 indicate that it is set to be an extremely tight race for the top between three teams. That could make for a lot of fun later in the season as the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins battle for supremacy and a home playoff game.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the AFC East division crown and our betting expert’s top picks across the four teams in the division.

What Are the AFC East Odds to Win the Division?

• Buffalo Bills +180
• New York Jets +180
• Miami Dolphins +200
• New England Patriots +2500

Top Picks in the AFC East

This is one of the toughest divisions to call this season. The Bills are justifiably the favorite, but it’s marginal. Based on the lines, the New England Patriots have no chance (which is true), but any of the other three can win.

My guess is the Jets will be the most popular pick. After all, this team won seven games last year with Zach Wilson at quarterback. If there were no concerns about Aaron Rodgers’ health, age, or potentially declining ability, the Jets would be favored. That appears to make them the optimal choice, given the odds. However, I’m going in a different direction.

The Bills still have Josh Allen, the best quarterback in the division. They may have lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but Buffalo was able to rattle off five consecutive wins to take the division last season without utilizing Diggs much at all. They’ve won the AFC East for four consecutive years. These are the longest odds we’ve had them at during the Josh Allen era.

Pick: Bills +170

– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

The Patriots are a bad football team, and that’s not a secret. I thought the public nature of their struggles would make it difficult to find a bet I was passionate about.

I was wrong.

Early Betting Lines

• Week 3 at NYJ: 7.5-point underdog
• Week 5 vs. MIA: 4-point underdog
• Week 8 vs. NYJ: 3.5-point underdog
• Week 12 at MIA: 6.5-point underdog
• Week 16 at BUF: 7.5-point underdog
• Week 18 vs. BUF: 3.5-point underdog

Forget being favored; the opening lines had New England getting more than a field goal in all six of their divisional games. Over the past five seasons, teams that are an underdog by more than three points win outright just 28.1% of the time. If we reduce that sample to only divisional games, the win rate drops to 24.9%.

Entering the season, I’d say a winless season within the division (something two teams did last season) is more likely than the Patriots pulling off a pair of upsets.

Pick: Patriots under 1.5 divisional wins (+110 at DraftKings)

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

For whatever reason, I’ve made a habit of betting on the exact order of how the AFC East would finish. I nailed it two years ago, thanks to the Jets’ late-season collapse, and I had it last year until the Dolphins did Dolphins January things and blew the division.

So we’re going right back to an exact finish prop this year. I am in the minority, but I see the Bills taking a step back this season and giving up the throne. They lost too many defensive players and then traded the unhappy Diggs away.

MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor

Yes, Allen might be the second-best QB in the league, but this is the same team that was on the outside looking in before beating Miami late in the season. Plus, their roster is not as good as last season.

Additionally, the Jets, should Rodgers stay healthy, should be better and have shored up the offensive line a bit. I don’t think they win the division just yet, so I will stay with Miami, who had a three-game AFC East lead with five games left a year ago.

As for the team in New England… well… they aren’t good.

Pick: Exact division order of finish — Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Patriots (+600)

– David Bearman, Chief Content Officer