The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is one of the more intriguing in terms of the field. In the past 10 years, we have seen three RBs, three WRs, and four QBs take home the award. The only thing you can be virtually certain of is that a tight end or an offensive lineman is highly unlikely to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
For a long time, the award was dominated by the RB position, but since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, QBs have had more success, and WRs have started to be more regular winners in the past decade than ever before. With at least two rookie QBs set to start in 2024, can anyone else spoil their party, or is this a straight race between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels?
Let’s examine the current OROY odds and who our betting analysts see as the most likely candidates to win the award next February.
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award?
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of August 2. Any player not listed has odds longer than +5000.
- Caleb Williams +135
- Jayden Daniels +550
- Marvin Harrison Jr. +650
- Malik Nabers +1400
- Bo Nix +1600
- J.J. McCarthy +2000
- Drake Maye +2500
- Xavier Worthy +2500
- Keon Coleman +2500
- Ladd McConkey +3500
- Brock Bowers +4000
- Rome Odunze +4500
- Adonai Mitchell +5000
- Jonathon Brooks +5000
- Brian Thomas Jr. +5000
- Trey Benson +5000
Top Picks To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year
In my head, I believe this award is between Williams and Daniels. Williams has perhaps the best supporting cast ever given to a rookie quarterback, and Daniels is the kind of electric playmaker who could win this award on his own, so to speak. However, just picking one of the two favorites is boring, and my heart will not let me be boring.
Therefore, I am looking at a long-shot bet, and what better place to look than the player who is paired with Patrick Mahomes? We have already seen the hype videos coming out of the Chiefs’ camp of Mahomes and Xavier Worthy, and I have bought that hype. Mahomes produced some magic last year with Rashee Rice, and Worthy might well be more electric than Rice.
With uncertainty over Rice’s playing time this year, and Travis Kelce showing signs of aging, could Worthy be the Tyreek Hill-type option for this offense? If he can demonstrate even close to that speed, this award could be in his pocket. If you are looking for a longshot flutter alongside the QBs, I like Worthy as the player with the best opportunity.
Pick: Xavier Worthy (+2500)
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting
Marvin Harrison Jr. has my attention given the odds and that we’ve seen generation prospects take home this award at the WR position (Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Odell Beckham Jr. over the past decade), but I have to lean with the chalk here.
Puka Nacua put together a historic rookie season in a year he entered with very tempered expectations, yet C.J. Stroud received 48 of 50 first-place votes. This award isn’t like the MVP in terms of QB leans, but with Caleb Williams stepping into a perfect situation, OROY honors seem to be his to lose.
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While Harrison will share some of the credit should this Arizona offense overachieve, Williams will be the primary beneficiary should Chicago post their first winning season since 2018.
The Bears’ win expectation is two greater than that of Daniels’ Washington Commanders and four higher than Bo Nix’s Denver Broncos, the other two quarterbacks who are most likely to open their careers as starters.
Pick: Caleb Williams (+135)
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
The worst years to bet on awards are when there are obvious favorites. Williams is walking into what is indisputably the best offensive situation a No. 1 overall pick has ever enjoyed. He’s likely to win it for a reason. I threw down a few bucks on him at +225 on Bet365 purely because those odds were an outlier. At +135, I can’t endorse that. So, we look elsewhere.
I wish I could get more creative with this, but if it’s not Williams, I have to put my money on the generational prospect at WR. Harrison is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. He walks into the perfect situation where he’s the clear WR1 with minimal target competition playing with a good quarterback in Kyler Murray.
There’s a world where Harrison sees 180 targets as a rookie. He won’t need that many to contend for offensive rookie of the year.
If Williams struggles a bit, while Harrison catches 100 passes for 1,300+ yards, he will have a good chance to win it.
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. +650
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
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