The Best Bet for All 32 NFL Teams Entering the 2024 Season: Bijan Robinson, Caleb Williams, and Others

The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, and it is time to get those futures down ahead of the start of Week 1. We decided to take a slightly different approach in this article and try to pick the best bet we liked for each of the 32 teams. Some of them were relatively straightforward, while other teams had a lack of value in their odds. However, we got there with an explanation of why we liked each of these bets.

So, without further ado, here are our best bets for each of the 32 teams entering the 2024 NFL season from Pro Football Network‘s NFL betting team.

What Is the Best Bet for Each of the 32 NFL Teams?

Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals to score a TD in every game (+220 at DraftKings)

Ten teams pulled this off in 2023, and while Arizona was not one of them, it found paydirt in 15 of its games, including multiple times on 13 occasions.

That’s not a bad result considering that Kyler Murray missed nine games. The two failed games last season saw Clayton Tune start in Cleveland against arguably the best defense in the league, and the other featured Josh Dobbs taking on Aaron Donald and Company.

Not ideal.

The Cardinals have scored a touchdown in 16 straight games in which Murray has started, oftentimes taking care of business in the first half (TD in the first half of 12 of those contests). Arizona drafted a pair of very talented rookies (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson) and brought in Zay Jones to improve its depth.

This was the fourth-worst yards-per-play defense in the league a season ago. The need to score will be there, and the talent upgrades will make it hard to slow them down for an entire 60-minute game.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Bijan Robinson to lead the league in rushing yards (+1800 at Caesars)

I bet this a couple of months ago on Caesars. I just didn’t understand why the odds were so long. It’s very difficult for most backs to contend for the rushing title because 300-carry backs are mostly a thing of the past.

Last season, Christian McCaffrey led the league with 1,459 rushing yards. Bijan Robinson averaged 4.6 yards per carry while playing with Desmond Ridder at quarterback and for one of the worst head coaches in NFL history.

The Falcons’ offense will be much improved with Raheem Morris as head coach, Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator, and, most importantly, Kirk Cousins as quarterback. They’ve made it abundantly clear they plan to feature Bijan Robinson heavily.

Robinson has the talent to average over 5.0 yards per carry. If he can get to around 5.5 while also handling 270+ carries, he will be in the conversation.

I only see six or seven running backs who have the talent and the volume potential to contend for a rushing title. Somehow, Robinson’s odds are the longest. Yes, please.

– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Derrick Henry to have over 925.5 rushing yards (-112 on FanDuel)

Am I taking crazy pills? In what world is Derrick Henry not getting to 1,000 yards unless he gets hurt this season?

Of course, injury plays a factor. At 30 years old, Henry’s risk of injury is greater than it was when he was younger. But Henry is built differently. Outside of breaking his foot midway through the 2021 season, Henry has never been injured. And that season, he almost got to 1,000 yards on the ground in just eight games.

Henry’s yards-per-carry average has dipped in the past couple of seasons. Some may say he’s declining. I don’t really see that on the field. I see a guy playing on an offense without a quarterback or other weapons the opposing team has to respect.

On the Ravens, the threat of Lamar Jackson should help open things up for Henry. I can see him returning to 5.0 yards per carry (ypc). If he doesn’t get hurt, he wouldn’t even need 200 carries to go over 925.5 rushing yards. Even at 4.0 ypc, he could get there with about 230. The only way I see this bet losing is injury.

– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills to score a TD in every game (+100 at DraftKings)

Since the start of the 2021 season, the Bills have failed to score a touchdown in just one game, but they have scored a touchdown in every game for the past two regular seasons. Per TruMedia, Buffalo scored 63.1% of its red-zone opportunities last year (sixth) and had an 81.8% goal-line efficiency. Both of those numbers give me a high level of confidence that the Bills should be able to score a touchdown in every game.

If we go back to 2019 when Josh Allen became the full-time starter, the Bills have scored in every game but three (Week 17, 2019; Week 7, 2020; and Week 9, 2021). One of those was a Week 17 game when Allen played minimal snaps, but two of the three have been against the Jets, so that will be the team to watch them against in terms of finding the end zone.

If you want to be a little braver, then you can get the Bills to score a passing touchdown at +700. They have narrowly failed in the endeavor in each of the last two years but have only failed to score a passing touchdown in two of the 34 games they have played across those two seasons.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Carolina Panthers

Pick: Bryce Young to pass for over 3,200.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)

If there’s anything we can agree upon, it’s that the Panthers are going to be playing from behind. Last season, of the 35 quarterbacks that threw 200 passes, Young led the way with 84.1% of his fantasy football production coming when his team was trailing.

Fantasy points, of course, aren’t only yards, but the idea that only two other QBs had even 69% of their production come in such spots points to how advantageous of a spot Young is in to check the volume box.

MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor

In any “over” bet, ideally, you want volume and efficiency. I can’t promise the latter, but a Year 2 jump is common among quarterbacks, and the odds of him making a leap are far greater with Dave Canales at the controls. He was the offensive mind behind the only 4,000-yard seasons for both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, magic that we need just 80% of to cash this ticket.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Chicago Bears

Pick: Caleb Williams to lead rookies in passing yards (+100 at DraftKings)

This market is priced differently depending on the book you use, but anything under -140 has my attention. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are the other two rookies most likely to assume control of their respective offenses from the jump, making this something of a three-man race.

J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye have the potential to make a splash, but if we are talking a 4-6 game head start, I have a hard time thinking they factor into this wager.

Forget the advanced analysis for a minute — how many reliable NFL pass catchers does Williams have access to?

We can’t include a rookie in the answer, but I’d say that he has more proven commodities (four) than Daniels and Nix together (two?). Williams owns an athletic profile, but no one is going to argue that a higher percentage of his offensive output will come on the ground than Daniels’, thus opening us up for cheap passing yards instead of designed QB runs.

Even if you think this is tight down the stretch — I don’t think it finishes that way. Rookies tend to improve with time, so the fact that Williams closes his season with seven of eight games against below-average pass defenses from a season ago in terms of yards per attempt gives me confidence that he can push down the gas in December to win us this bet.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Joe Burrow to lead the league in TD passes (+1100 at DraftKings)

There are 11 QBs priced +1600 or better, and I think 10 of them are on a team that has a realistic chance to see a player run for 10+ touchdowns.

Burrow is the exception.

Dan Pitcher has been promoted to the coordinator of this offense after Brian Callahan left for Tennessee — not a major concern for me because he’s been in Cincinnati’s quarterback room since 2016. The Bengals have finished each of the past two seasons second in pass rate over expectation, a stretch that included Burrow leading the league in touchdown passes from Weeks 3-16 in 2022.

Jermaine Burton was brought in during the third round in April, replacing Tyler Boyd and adding more big play upside (18.0 yards per catch during his collegiate career) in the process. Toss in the fact that this was the worst yards-per-play defense in the league last season, and the stage is set for Burrow to set a new high-water mark for his career.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Cleveland Browns

Pick: Browns to win under 2.5 divisional games (+155 at DraftKings)

I think this is going to be an ultra-competitive division, but the schedule doesn’t do the Browns any favors. We know that games played on short rest ramp up the variance — well, the two divisional games in which the point spread will give them the greatest chance to win (both Pittsburgh games) are on less-than-normal rest.

If they fail to sweep the Black and Gold, going over this total is an uphill battle. The two Bengals games don’t come in great spots (one after playing in five different cities over the course of five weeks; the other on the road in a three-day work week), and they’ve lost 12 of their past 17 against the Ravens.

With Deshaun Watson a wild card and Nick Chubb’s health a question coming into the season, this is a team in a division with a pair of MVP candidate QBs that need to win with their defense. In certain matchups, the muck-it-up style can win, but in 2024, that’s a tough way to make a living against the elite signal-callers.

At the end of the day, I think it’s more likely that Cleveland loses at least three of its Baltimore/Cincinnati games than it is that it wins both Pittsburgh matchups.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Dallas Cowboys

Pick Jake Ferguson to catch over 5.5 TD receptions (+125 at DraftKings)

I could make this complicated, but the premise is really quite simple. The Cowboys threw 67 passes to the end zone last season, the most in the NFL and the highest single-season total over the past decade.

Jake Ferguson saw nine of them (T-second most at the position), and that came with Brandin Cooks earning 16 of them (fifth most in the NFL). CeeDee Lamb is going to continue earning looks at an elite rate, but while Ferguson’s star rises, Cooks’ is set to fall. He averaged a career-low 1.25 yards per route in 2023 — it’s only a matter of time until that regression spills over to his ability to generate scoring looks.

Without a WR3 that I trust on this roster and a backfield that is also underwhelming, Dallas’ volume in close is going to be both impressive and concentrated. Look for Ferguson (five TDs in 2023) to be used something closer to the second half of his sophomore season (seven touchdowns in his final 12 games, including the playoff hat trick against the Packers) and for him to clear this number without a late season sweat.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Denver Broncos

Pick: Broncos to score under 330.5 total points (-115 on DraftKings)

After releasing Russell Wilson, drafting Nix, and adding both Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in the offseason, the Denver Broncos’ offense is a big question mark. They also traded away their second-best pass catcher, Jerry Jeudy, so the offense should be set to take a pretty big step back this season.

Last season, the Broncos scored 357 points, with their offense and defense ranking 22nd and 21st in terms of yards per attempt, respectively. However, when it came to passing touchdowns, the Broncos were eighth offensively with 28, which is a number we expect to reduce considerably after the quarterback change. While Wilson was by no means an elite quarterback last year, he did a good job scoring touchdowns relative to the rest of the Broncos’ offensive performance.

A reduction of 30 points is essentially just five fewer touchdowns in 2024, and that very much feels in play for what could be the lowest-scoring offense in the league.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions to win the division, with either the Packers (+320) or Bears (+450) to finish second.

Much like the AFC East, this division features three teams that figure to push for a postseason berth. For me, the excitement surrounding the Packers and Bears comes with the hope that they can be what the Lions already are. Detroit knows exactly who it is — this was a three-win team just three seasons ago before winning nine games in 2022 and 12 a season ago.

The Lions should come out of the gates strong (favored by an average of 4.8 points through September) and finish their season with a home game against the Vikings. I have them labeled as the class of this division, and while you could bet them to win the North (+135), I feel just as strongly about Minnesota being the worst team in this division.

By placing a pair of bets, I’m leveraging my two strongest takes in this division to get more bang for my buck than simply betting my confidence in Detroit.

Give me the Lions to win the division and either the Packers (+320) or Bears (+450) to finish second.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Green Bay Packers

Pick: Jordan Love to throw for over 27.5 TD passes (-110 at DraftKings)

This number does not make much sense, given that Jordan Love had 32 passing touchdowns last season. The expectation is that the Green Bay Packers will be a better team than they were last season. Their over/under is set at 9.5 wins, which is 0.5 more than they achieved last year.

Therefore, it does not seem logical that Love would not progress at QB, let alone drop off by five passing touchdowns this season. Per TruMedia, Love achieved those 32 passing touchdowns despite the Packers having a below-average 51.6% conversion rate inside the red zone.

I expect Love to take a step forward in his second full season, and he should be capable of achieving close to the 5.5% touchdown rate he achieved in 2023.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Houston Texans

Pick: Texans to win the AFC South (+105 on DraftKings)

Interestingly, I think the wrong team is the second favorite to win this. If not the Texans, my bet would be on the Colts.

Nevertheless, these odds don’t accurately reflect how good the Texans are; C.J. Stroud is already a top-five quarterback. Perhaps there’s some expectation they take a step back after severely overperforming in his rookie season. I think the opposite.

As great as Stroud was, he’s still getting better, and this team is getting better. I’m in the camp that Stefon Diggs isn’t that good anymore, but he’s still capable of catching passes and being a reliable underneath option. He will make this team better, as will Joe Mixon.

Trevor Lawrence has to be one of the most overrated players in the history of the NFL. The Jaguars are -155 to miss the playoffs for a reason. I bet that, too (albeit at -120), for what it’s worth.

I believe we are about to embark on a decade-long stretch of the Texans dominating the division. We will look back on +105 at the end of the year and for years to come and wonder how the odds were ever so good.

– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Anthony Richardson to score under 8.5 rushing TDs (-130 at Caesars)

If you’ve read some of my other stuff, you know I’m also on Anthony Richardson to win MVP as a long shot. I also like the Colts to go over 8.5 wins. How can all of these things make sense together? Well, betting is all about value and the odds.

As much as I believe in Richardson, asking him to get to nine rushing touchdowns is a lot. I view it as a bit of an overreaction to how frequently teams like the Bills and Eagles used their quarterbacks as goal-line options last season. That’s not the norm.

Richardson can definitely score 10+ times on the ground. But in his short career, he’s gotten hurt three separate times. You have to think the Colts will be as careful as they can with him.

Now, that doesn’t mean Richardson is never going to QB sneak it or have designed QB draws called for him inside the five. That will happen. But the first option near the goal line should be Jonathan Taylor.

Richardson can play a full season, perform incredibly, and still finish with fewer than 8.5 rushing touchdowns. And while I hope this isn’t what happens, the chance for an out for an injury is very strong. If Richardson gets hurt, then we just win.

– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. to catch over 4.5 TD receptions (-120 at DraftKings)

This looks like a round-peg-into-a-round-hole fit with Calvin Ridley out of town and Trevor Lawrence increasingly interested in stretching the field.

Lawrence’s percentage of passing fantasy points on deep passes by season:

• 2021: 24.2%
• 2022: 27.5%
• 2023: 39.2% (fourth most among qualifiers)

Brian Thomas Jr. scored on 18.9% of his collegiate receptions and averaged 17.3 yards per catch in 2023. Christian Kirk (aDOT down 19.8% in his two seasons with the Jags from his final two seasons with the Cardinals) and Evan Engram are more used in the short-passing games and thus not a threat to my angle that Thomas is going to thrive down the field from the jump.

Gabe Davis is a bit of a skill clone, but with NFL experience, defenses are more likely to shift his direction until BTJ proves himself worthy of the attention. Jacksonville ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation and has a QB it views as its franchise guy — volume isn’t a concern for me, and Thomas’ profile is that of an instant impact receiver.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Patrick Mahomes to throw over 9.5 interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes is as good as it gets as the position, but he does occasionally put the ball in harm’s way. Even with an aDOT that has declined or stayed level for five straight seasons, he’s thrown at least a dozen interceptions in three straight seasons.

It’s plenty reasonable to think that aDOT trends in the other direction this season, given the drafting of Xavier Worthy and the addition of Hollywood Brown (not to mention the legal hot water that YAC-man Rashee Rice is in). With that risk will come plenty of reward, but as you’d assume, those downfield throws come with much more risk.

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Over the past five seasons, passes thrown 15+ yards downfield have been intercepted at a rate that is 260% greater than all other passes. The last thing Kansas City wants to do is take the school-yard plays out of Mahomes’ bag, and that’s good news for our ticket.

Also working in our favor is the fact that he’s started 50 of a possible 51 games over the past three regular seasons. The volume of attempts is a near lock, and over the course of 17 games, we’ve found the only market in which I’m willing to bet against Mahomes.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Davante Adams to lead the division in receiving yards (+240)

Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the game and is a real threat to post a top-five target share, something he has done in both of his seasons with the Raiders. I’ll listen to the argument that an Antonio Pierce-led team could turn to a smash-mouth style, but with a lack of competition within this division, I still love the spot for Adams and am betting him at +240 to lead this division in receiving yards.

Kansas City is the natural direction to lean, but I don’t think they pose a serious threat, assuming Rice is handed a multi-game suspension at some point. Travis Kelce’s reps have been managed during the regular season, a strategy the team has no reason to pivot off. Brown and Worthy will have their big weeks, but the wide range of outcomes on a game-by-game basis is a risk I’m not willing to take on when trying to catch up to Adams.

We don’t know who will lead the Chargers in targets this season, so that crosses off everyone in Los Angeles. As for Denver, you’re betting on a rookie QB getting Courtland Sutton in the Adams range — good luck with that. Sutton has one season in his career with 830+ receiving yards, and any total in that vicinity isn’t going to cut it.

A bet like this requires health, and that is always scary. That said, Adams hasn’t missed a game since 2021, and with a centrally located bye week (Week 10), we have no real reason to fear his availability.

If he plays 17 games, I think he cashes this ticket with ease, and that’s a bet I’m willing to make at these odds.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Joshua Palmer to have under 700.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

The Los Angeles Chargers’ passing offense is tricky to judge for several reasons. Firstly, you have an injury to Justin Herbert, which makes the start of the season a question mark in Los Angeles. Then you have Joshua Palmer’s own injury woes, which saw him limited to just 10 games in 2023.

The final element is the shape of Jim Harbaugh’s offensive system. When Harbaugh was the 49ers’ head coach in his last run in the NFL, only one WR eclipsed 700 receiving yards per season. However, he also had Vernon Davis do it in three of the four years. The Chargers do not have a TE of Davis’ quality, but will those yards pass on to a receiver, or will they just be split among numerous tight ends?

Realistically, you would think that Palmer would have to play at least 14 games to hit 700 yards this season, and that is certainly not a given after his health issues last year. We also do not know who could be the featured receiver in this system. It could easily be Ladd McConkey or DJ Chark Jr. (assuming he can stay healthy). There is enough here for me to be down on Palmer and this total.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Matthew Stafford to throw under 3,900.5 passing yards (-110 at DraftKings)

The Rams are such a tough team to judge because I would take many of their bets on the “over” if you guaranteed me Matthew Stafford’s health for 17 weeks. However, that is the bit that has me most concerned. Stafford has not been a picture of health in the last few years. I struggle to see him playing more than 15 games in 2024.

Entering his age-36 season, that is not likely to get better, so the under for him personally comes into play. Sure, he missed two games last year and still topped 3,900 yards, but that was a matter of 65 yards over at an above-average yards per attempt for his career. With Kyren Williams looking like a star, I believe the Rams will take the ball out of Stafford’s hands more often in 2024 than in 2023.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Miami Dolphins

Pick: De’Von Achane to score under 7.5 rushing TDs (-145 at DraftKings)

De’Von Achane was the toast of the town last season — he was cashing optimistic bets left and right while leading savvy fantasy managers to championships. That’s fine, but the wise will build more scoring regression than the books have posted. Part of that is the nature of the public betting patterns (books attract a lot of “over” action, thus motivating the line to be an elevated one to entice “under” action to level their liability), but that’s not all.

Consider this: Achane ran for 10 fewer touchdowns than Raheem Mostert last season, yet the yardage accumulated in touchdown runs was 38 yards longer. His 195 yards gained on TD runs led the NFL and might be his least-stable stat from 2023.

For reference, Achane’s average rushing score gained 24.4 yards, nearly triple the league average at the position (8.7). With Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright in the mix, the volume concerns figure to remain. He’s not the short-yardage back in this offense, and there have been reports of this offense trying to leverage its explosive backs more in the passing game — that’s not going to hurt us in this bet.

Tua Tagovailoa was the second highest-rated passer when inside the opponent’s 40-yard line in 2023; as long as he remains proficient in those scoring spots, Achane will not repeat his rushing success from last season, even if you pencil in an increase in his role.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Vikings to win under 2.5 division games (-135 at DraftKings)

The Minnesota Vikings are playing in one of the toughest divisions in 2024. The Packers and Lions were playoff teams last year and are expected to improve. The Bears are on an upward trajectory. Meanwhile, the Vikings are not. They are relying on a mix of Sam Darnold and McCarthy to lead them in 2024, and that terrifies me.

I can see the Vikings taking a game or two off the Lions, Packers, and Bears, but going 3-3 within the division seems unlikely. Minnesota is the underdog in all six of its division games this season, which shows the enormity of its task to get to a .500 divisional record. This almost feels too easy …

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

New England Patriots

Pick: Patriots to win under 1.5 divisional games (+110 on DraftKings)

The Patriots are a bad football team, and that isn’t a secret. I thought the public nature of their struggles would make it difficult to find a bet I was passionate about.

I was wrong.

Early Betting Lines:

• Week 3 at NYJ: 7.5-point underdog
• Week 5 vs. MIA: 4-point underdog
• Week 8 vs. NYJ: 3.5-point underdog
• Week 12 at MIA: 6.5-point underdog
• Week 16 at BUF: 7.5-point underdog
• Week 18 vs. BUF: 3.5-point underdog

Forget being favored; the opening lines had New England getting more than a field goal in all six divisional games. Over the past five seasons, teams that are an underdog by more than three points win outright just 28.1% of the time.

If we reduce that sample to only divisional games, the win rate drops to 24.9%. Entering the season, I’d say a winless season within the division (something two teams did last season) is more likely than them pulling off a pair of upsets.

I’m taking them to go under 1.5 divisional wins at +110 on DraftKings.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

New Orleans Saints

Pick: Alvin Kamara to have over 625.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Someone is going to have to explain this line to me. Assuming Alvin Kamara makes the roster for the Saints, 625.5 rushing yards seems too low of a line. He has topped that mark in every season of his career despite missing games in every season. Since his rookie season, Kamara has averaged over 50 rushing yards per game in every season. Based on that, he needs to play 13 games in 2024 to ensure he hits this mark.

When I look at the Saints’ depth chart, I do not see where the competition is coming from. Jamaal Williams did not provide a threat last year, and Kendre Miller does not seem to be a major concern. To get to 625.5 yards at a conservative 3.7 yards per attempt, Kamara needs 170 carries. He has not fallen below that since that rookie season.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

New York Giants

Pick: Malik Nabers to have under 71.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)

Fading a player getting this much preseason hype doesn’t come without concerns, but it also could land us a more favorable line as time passes, so I’m waiting before locking in this wager.

Last season, 10 times did a non-Darren Waller, non-Saquon Barkley Giant catch more than four passes in a game, and that is what Nabers will have to average over a full rookie season to get there. I do not doubt his role as the primary target in New York; it’s all about how valuable that role will prove to be.

Few rookies enter the NFL with the level of defensive attention that will be sent Nabers’ way on Day 1, and without a quarterback that has shown the ability to throw his weapons open, I worry that the bust weeks are more impactful to this total than the boom weeks.

Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, Ridley, and DeVonta Smith are among the many rookie receivers who fell short of 72 receptions during their first seasons. Heck, both Jayden Reed and Jordan Addison produced over expectations last season but came up shy of this number. Nabers can have a productive season and cash this ticket; both things very much can be true.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

New York Jets

Pick: Breece Hall to have 1,000+ rushing yards and 500+ receiving yards (+275 at DraftKings)

Coming back off a major knee injury last season, the New York Jets were somewhat conservative with Breece Hall, and still, he hit 994 rushing yards and 591 receiving yards. Add that it came with Wilson and a band of mediocre quarterbacks under center, and the optimism should rise even higher.

Aaron Rodgers being under center should open up the offense more this year. Hall should be in line for upwards of 225 carries, while a more effective passing game should give him lighter boxes to run into. Hall essentially just needs to match what he did in 2023 with six more rushing yards and this prop will hit.

The beauty of this bet is that I think it is also somewhat Rodgers-independent. Most of the Jets’ bets are tied to their quarterback’s health, but Hall proved last year that he can get close to these milestones without a star under center.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Cowboys-Eagles to finish in the top two of the NFC East (-160 at DraftKings)

There are some bets you take even at negative odds up to a certain point, and this very much feels like one of them. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders feel a long way behind the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles in 2024. Daniels could surprise us as a rookie, and Daniel Jones could flash that high-level potential we have seen, but neither is likely.

The Cowboys and Eagles have dominated this division for the past three years and should be positioned to do so again. The beauty here is that both teams have built superior rosters to their division rivals, so even an injury to Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott does not ruin this bet. I do not love tying up money for the entire season at -160, but this bet is one I feel pretty comfortable with.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Steelers to win over 2.5 division games (+100 at DraftKings)

Do you remember the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers went under three wins in their own division? No? That’s good because, off the top of my head, neither did I, and that is because it has not happened since 2009. Despite wading their way through mediocre quarterback play in recent years, the Steelers have remained competitive within the division. It is one of Mike Tomlin’s special gifts.

There is no doubt that the Steelers are huge underdogs in the AFC North in 2024. But entering 2023, they were, and they went 5-1 in the division. They just have this knack for beating their division rivals, including seven of their last eight against the Ravens, four of their last six against the Browns, and three of their last four against the Bengals.

All three other starting quarterbacks in their division have injury concerns, which also helps. I will take Tomlin keeping another streak alive against the odds.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

San Francisco 49ers

Pick: 49ers to win over 4.5 division games (+105 on DraftKings)

Over the last two years, the San Francisco 49ers have gone 11-1 in the division without really breaking a sweat. Last year, their only division loss came in a Week 18 game against the Los Angeles Rams, which had no bearing on the 49ers. That is perhaps the biggest risk for 2024, with the Arizona Cardinals as their Week 18 opponents.

The Rams are a good team, but they are not the force they were a few years back. Before that Week 18 game last year, the 49ers were on a nine-game winning streak in the regular season. The Cardinals have not beaten the 49ers in the last four games, and the Seahawks have gone five straight without a win over San Francisco.

With all three teams in slight rebuild/retool phases, the 49ers are in a win-now mode. Getting plus-odds on something that has happened two years running is solid enough for me. The rest of the market for the 49ers is pretty bland, so this is my favorite pick.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Seattle Seahawks

Pick: DK Metcalf to have under 1,000.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

The Seattle Seahawks have a very crowded wide receiver room in 2024, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role is only likely to grow. The big question for fantasy managers and sports bettors is whether it will be DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett whom he takes a chunk out of with that growth. The correct answer is probably a little of both.

Metcalf broke 1,000 receiving yards for the third time in his career last season, but he needed a career-high in efficiency to do so. His 16.9 yards per reception was a full two yards per reception over his career average. That was despite his average depth of target being right in line with his career norms.

MORE: 2024 NFL Offense Rankings

That does not seem sustainable, and if that drops back to closer to 14.3 yards per reception, combined with a drop in targets compared to last year, it is a huge red flag. Sure, it appears his role was different last year, but how sustainable is a 55.5% catch rate with 16.9 yards per reception? It seems risky to me.

Additionally, Metcalf had a lot of injury scares last season. He ultimately only missed one game, but there seems to be more injury scares every year with him. Put all of this together and I am willing to take the under on his season-long total.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Rachaad White to score under 5.5 rushing TDs (-115 at DraftKings)

Does Rachaad White impress you as a short-yardage grinder?

Yea, me neither. Five of his six rushing scores last season came from inside three yards, a fortunate happening that is more than something I’m comfortable projecting.

White ranked 38th of 44 qualified running backs in yards per carry after contact. Again, he doesn’t fit the profile of an RB who racks up short touchdowns. However, he fell into them last season, impacting his projected total for 2024.

I’m not here to say that fourth-round pick Bucky Irving will soak up a ton of usage, but Mayfield ranked second on this team in rush attempts a season ago. White’s value to the Buccaneers comes as a pass catcher, not a runner.

Maybe they ramp up their play-calling (15th in pass rate over expectation last season), Maybe they look to see if Irving can give them more juice between the tackles and go with two-RB sets as they get closer to the end zone.

Either of those situations is fine by me. White averages 3.7 yards per carry for his career and has scored once every 57.3 carries in his two seasons. If the Bucs opt for creativity, we are sitting pretty, but this ticket could cash without it (he went five straight games without a rushing score early last season and finished with one score in his final five).

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Tennessee Titans

Pick: Titans to be the last winless team (+800 at DraftKings)

I really did not love any of the Titans’ props, so I decided to go big on this one. The Titans start with a pretty big gauntlet of the Bears, Jets, Packers, Dolphins, Colts, Bills, and Lions. That is legitimately seven games they could lose to open the season. The schedule softens at that point, but this bet may have already been cashed by then.

Of course, this bet relies on teams like the Patriots (+500) and Broncos (+1100) to win games, which is certainly not a given. The Patriots also have a tough schedule to open up, and you could talk me into taking them and the Titans to be the last winless teams.

A potentially safer way to bet against the Titans would be to look at their record after five games. I can see at most two wins and, more likely, one or zero wins in the first five. Therefore, you could take the Titans to win one of their first five at +160 and insure your zero-win bet at +500. That is not a bad double for this team, either.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Washington Commanders

Pick: Terry McLaurin to have over 900.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

The Commanders ranked 20th in time of possession, 24th in third down conversion rate, and 25th in offensive EPA in 2023. In a nutshell, that’s how you earn the second overall pick.

Daniels was that pick, and while his mobility has fantasy football managers salivating, let’s not act as if he didn’t complete over 70% of his passes during his two seasons at LSU.

Yes, this offense won’t be as wide-open as last season, but I’m more interested in their ability to sustain drives, taking a quality-over-quantity approach.

There is no real target competition for Terry McLaurin, an ace receiver who has cleared 900 receiving yards in all five of his seasons. He’s also been targeted on over 20% of his routes in each of those seasons, giving us proof of concept in terms of his ability to earn opportunities from a variety of quarterbacks.

A bet on McLaurin is a bet on Daniels, and a bet on Daniels requires some confidence. In September, the Commanders play nothing but opponents who ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt and defensive EPA last season. I don’t know if Washington will win a ton of games, but I expect Daniels to be productive from the jump, and that means his WR1 is getting fed.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst