The NFL Defensive Player of the Year award has been dominated in recent seasons by defensive linemen. Between three awards for Aaron Donald, two for J.J. Watt, Khalil Mack in 2016, Nick Bosa in 2022, and Myles Garrett in 2023, a defensive tackle or defensive end has won eight of the last 10 awards.
In that time, we’ve had one cornerback (Stephon Gilmore) and one linebacker (T.J. Watt) take home the honors. And you’d have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last safety to win the award.
That would suggest the smart money is on the guys who will directly impact the quarterback at the line of scrimmage, and the odds reflect that. Kyle Hamilton, at +3500, is the first non-pass rusher to appear in DraftKings’ odds.
Let’s take a look at the odds for Defensive Player of the Year and who our betting experts believe are the best value picks this season.
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award?
The odds listed below are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Aug. 7. Any players not listed have odds of +5500 or greater.
- T.J. Watt +550
- Micah Parsons +550
- Nick Bosa +700
- Maxx Crosby +700
- Myles Garrett +800
- Aidan Hutchinson +1000
- Will Anderson Jr. +2000
- Danielle Hunter +2500
- Josh Hines-Allen +2500
- Chris Jones +3000
- Montez Sweat +3000
- Kyle Hamilton +3500
- Fred Warner +4000
- Rashan Gary +5000
- Haason Reddick +5000
- Trey Hendrickson +5000
- Joey Bosa +5000
Top Picks To Win Defensive Player of the Year
The NFL clearly has a type for Defensive Player of the Year. The top 11 “favorites” to win the award this year are all pass rushers. Since 2014, Gilmore in 2016 is the only defensive back to win it.
The past three winners have been Garrett, Bosa, and T.J. Watt. They also happen to be three of the five shortest odds to win this year. Voters have been more willing to give the award to players who have won it before in this category, but I still think our best bet is to go with someone new.
It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Micah Parsons wins it, but at +550, there’s not much value. Instead, I’m going with Aidan Hutchinson.
After a really strong rookie year that saw him finish second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, Hutchinson was even better in his sophomore season. He recorded 11.5 sacks and 33 QB hits.
If he can turn a few more of those hits into sacks, Hutchinson would become one of the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year. At +1000, he’s worth a shot.
Pick: Aidan Hutchinson +1000
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
There are six players that grade out above the field in terms of the betting odds, and I think that’s a sharp move by the books. This is a fluid market that can swing with an injury, so they’ve limited their projected exposure by lumping all of the Tier 1 options within a similar price tag.
In differentiating at the top of the board, I couldn’t overcome the quarterback run out for Parsons. Within the division, he has to face an elite signal-caller in Jalen Hurts, but don’t forget that the Eagles’ offense is getting overhauled with Kellen Moore coming to the team. (Hurts: “The majority of it, probably 95% of it being new — and so it’s just been that process”.)
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The Commanders are working in a rookie quarterback, and the Giants are still trying to make Daniel Jones happen. Those are four games in which Parsons could pop, three of which come after Thanksgiving. Also coming in December are meetings with the Panthers and Buccaneers, two additional matchups where he can overwhelm.
Parsons has played 50 of 51 possible games during his three seasons and has 40.5 career sacks. He’s a game-wrecker at the highest level and would be my pick to go on an Aaron Donald type of run in this market if you told me that an elite defender was going to sustain dominance for the next handful of seasons.
Pick: Micah Parsons +550
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst