Last season, Kevin Stefanski took home the Coach of the Year award as he guided his Cleveland Browns to an 11-6 record and a playoff berth despite an injury-hit season at the quarterback position. That was Stefanski’s second award in four years, and in that time, we’ve seemingly seen a slight shift in how the award is decided upon.
If we go back a decade to Bruce Arians winning COTY with the Arizona Cardinals in 2014, it was very much a case of looking at teams that could exceed their projected win-loss record by three or more wins. From 2014 to 2019, the average gain on projected win-loss by the Coach of the Year recipient was five wins.
However, that shift is quite apparent as we look at the last four years when no Coach of the Year recipient has led their team to more than a 2.5-win increase over their projected win-loss from the sportsbooks. In that time, the average gain is 2.4 wins, suggesting that more nuance is now involved in deciding on the award.
With several new head coaches in place for 2024, let’s examine the odds for the NFL Coach of the Year award and who our betting experts consider their favorite picks.
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL Coach of the Year Award?
- Matt Eberflus +500
- Jim Harbaugh +600
- Robert Saleh +1200
- Matt LaFleur +1200
- Raheem Morris +1300
- DeMeco Ryans +1300
- Shane Steichen +1600
- Jonathan Gannon +1600
- Dan Campbell +1600
- Dave Canales +1800
- Dan Quinn +1800
- Kevin O’Connell +2000
- Brian Callahan +2000
- Antonio Pierce +2000
- Sean McVay +2200
- Mike Macdonald +2200
- Mike Tomlin +2500
- Mike McDaniel +2500
- Jerod Mayo +2500
- Sean Payton +3000
- Zac Taylor +3000
- Kyle Shanahan +3500
- Doug Pederson +3500
- Sean McDermott +4000
- Nick Sirianni +4500
- John Harbaugh +4500
- Brian Daboll +5000
- Andy Reid +5000
- Todd Bowles +6000
- Mike McCarthy +6500
- Dennis Allen +6500
- Kevin Stefanski +7500
Top Picks To Win NFL Coach of the Year
Isn’t the Coach of the Year award ridiculous? Andy Reid is +5000. Despite being considered the best coach in the NFL, the sportsbooks’ odds suggest he has little chance of winning the award.
Typically, this award goes to the head coach of a team that outperforms expectations the most. Given the Chicago Bears’ major improvements to the offense, that’s why we have Matt Eberflus as the favorite.
There are a couple of candidates I like, but my favorite, based on the odds, is DeMeco Ryans.
The Houston Texans were supposed to be a four- to five-win team last season. Instead, due almost entirely to C.J. Stroud’s brilliance as a rookie, the Texans won their division and a playoff game. Yet, Ryans didn’t win Coach of the Year.
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The stage is set for Stroud and the Texans to take another step forward this season. If they can win 12-13 games, while Stroud pushes 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, Ryans will get a ton of credit for this juggernaut of a team.
Given that Ryans is incredibly well-liked and has never won the award before, the odds are very much worth taking a chance on him to do so this season.
Pick: DeMeco Ryans +1300
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
- Kansas City Chiefs
- San Francisco 49ers
- Atlanta Falcons
Oh, don’t mind me; I’m just listing the three NFL teams that opened with minus-money betting odds to win their division this season.
Expectations are high in Atlanta, and given how Arthur Smith rubbed everyone covering the NFL the wrong way last season, it’s not hard to imagine the Falcons’ success if it comes to fruition, being accredited to the change at head coach.
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I don’t mind Katz’s call of Ryans, but did he miss his chance last season? Eberflus is the right option to be favored, but if Chicago is great, might it be Caleb Williams who gets credit for delivering?
If the Falcons excel, I like Raheem Morris to get credit for properly using a talented roster. Kirk Cousins is a major upgrade at the quarterback position, and if this team takes the next step, I’m willing to gamble that the coaching change gets played up, making Morris an interesting pick down the board.
Pick: Raheem Morris +1300
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
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