In recent years, the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award has morphed unofficially into the award for the best non-quarterback. Over the past seven seasons, three running backs and three wide receivers have won the award, compared to just one quarterback (Patrick Mahomes in 2018). With the MVP award now being dominated by quarterbacks, OPOY has almost become the non-QB MVP award.
Last year, Christian McCaffrey won the award, thanks to a 2,023-yard scrimmage season in which he scored 21 touchdowns, both of which led the league. He narrowly edged out the current favorite for 2024, Tyreek Hill, who led the league in receiving yards (1,799) and receiving touchdowns (13).
Given the role both of those players have in their offenses, it makes sense that they are the favorites for 2024. However, the queue of talent just behind them is mouth-watering, including a slew of quarterbacks with longshot odds of +4500 or +5000.
Let’s examine the odds for Offensive Player of the Year this season and see who our betting experts have as their top picks
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award?
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Aug. 5. Any player not listed as odds greater than +6500.
- Tyreek Hill +700
- Christian McCaffrey +750
- CeeDee Lamb +900
- Ja’Marr Chase +1200
- Breece Hall +1500
- Justin Jefferson +1500
- Saquon Barkley +1600
- Bijan Robinson +2000
- Amon-Ra St. Brown +2200
- Garrett Wilson +2800
- Jonathan Taylor +2800
- Jahmyr Gibbs +2800
- Puka Nacua +3000
- Kyren Williams +3500
- A.J. Brown +4000
- Josh Allen +4500
- Joe Burrow +4500
- Lamar Jackson +4500
- Patrick Mahomes +4500
- Jalen Hurts +4500
- Anthony Richardson +4500
Top Picks To Win Offensive Player of the Year
The Offensive Player of the Year award might be the most difficult award to call because there is so much playmaking talent in the league right now. If you go down that entire list of the top players in the betting market, you could make a case for everyone. At the same time, you can also make a case for why someone else on their team could stop them from winning it.
The two players I am looking at most closely are Garrett Wilson and Jonathan Taylor. Wilson could spend the entire season with Aaron Rodgers at QB, and we know the upside that presents for a WR. The counterpoint is that we saw Davante Adams have superb seasons when partnered with Rodgers in Green Bay, and he’s never won the award. Could the noise around Rodgers drown out the praise for Wilson?
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When you look at the Jets’ receivers, Wilson is the clear standout. If someone is going to be Rodgers’ star performer, it’s him. Then again, does that mean we could see him double-teamed out of games if Mike Williams cannot get fit? Additionally, could New York throw the house at acquiring Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders, potentially relegating Wilson to WR2?
Taylor is intriguing because we saw what he could do when he returned last season, scoring eight touchdowns on just 188 touches. When you consider that all of this came without the threat of Anthony Richardson next to him at quarterback and Zack Moss stealing touches, there’s a high ceiling for Taylor in 2024. There is little competition for consistent touches on the Indianapolis Colts’ depth chart, and Taylor could profit.
The problem could be if Richardson dominates goal-line carries in a similar way to Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Can Taylor win the award if he scores 10-12 touchdowns and Richardson posts a similar total while someone like CMC finds the end zone 18-20 times?
While both Wilson and Taylor have question marks, I’m quite happy splitting my OPOY pick across the two. The odds are long enough that I like the value of both, and they have clear paths to standing on that NFL Honors stage in February 2025.
Pick: Garret Wilson +2800 and Jonathan Taylor +2800
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
I would never even suggest betting on a position other than quarterback for MVP. But Offensive Player of the Year? Historically, that’s been more of the “best non-QB” award.
Since 2017, we’ve only seen one quarterback win OPOY: Mahomes after his incredible 2018 season. Even Lamar Jackson didn’t win it in 2019. As a result, I feel comfortable recommending a WR or an RB.
There are a handful of wide receivers who have the potential for the season necessary to win it. However, I only see three running backs capable. One of them, McCaffrey, won it last year. And we know these awards are weird in the sense that voters are reluctant to give it to the same guy two years in a row. The last player to win it twice, let alone twice in a row, was 2007 and 2008 Tom Brady.
That brings me to the two non-McCaffrey running backs who project for three-down roles and also have the talent to put up 2,000 yards and potentially 20 touchdowns: Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson.
With the latter at +2000, give me the Falcons’ starting RB, who is set to enjoy a massive coaching and quarterback upgrade.
Pick: Bijan Robinson +2000
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst