PFSN's NFL Football Playoff Meter (FPM) simulates the remaining NFL schedule 100,000 times in order to calculate the outcome of every team in the 2025-26 season. The NFL FPM uses our proprietary metrics to rank every team, which is then used to fuel our simulation engine.
Our FPM produces data points on the expected number of wins for each team, their chances of winning their division, making the playoffs, and their percentage chance of getting each of the seven playoff seeds. Additionally, our FPM looks at the other end of the table to give percentage chances of teams getting the top pick, a top two pick, a top three pick, a top five pick, or a top 10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Select | Team Name↕ | Conference↕ | Division↕ | Record↕ | Current Win%↕ | Avg Proj Wins↕ | Division Win%↕ | Make Playoff%↕ | #1 Seed%↕ | #2 Seed%↕ | #3 Seed%↕ | #4 Seed%↕ | #5 Seed%↕ | #6 Seed%↕ | #7 Seed%↕ | Make Div Round%↕ | Make Conf Champ%↕ | Make Super Bowl%↕ | Win Super Bowl%↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC | NFC South | 6-4 | 60.0% (12) | 9.9 (10) | 73.0% (5) | 78.9% (9) | 1.7% (10) | 5.9% (9) | 17.2% (4) | 48.2% (1) | 0.6% (17) | 1.7% (19) | 3.5% (17) | 37.8% (9) | 17.1% (9) | 7.4% (10) | 3.4% (10) | ||
| AFC | AFC South | 8-2 | 80.0% (3) | 11.7 (5) | 77.0% (3) | 94.5% (5) | 22.1% (5) | 22.9% (5) | 23.7% (1) | 8.3% (6) | 6.3% (8) | 6.7% (12) | 4.5% (14) | 61.6% (5) | 32.6% (4) | 17.1% (4) | 8.7% (5) | ||
| AFC | AFC North | 6-4 | 60.0% (12) | 9.6 (14) | 56.3% (7) | 65.6% (11) | 1.4% (13) | 3.8% (14) | 10.2% (9) | 40.8% (2) | 1.2% (15) | 3.1% (16) | 5.0% (12) | 32.7% (12) | 15.2% (12) | 6.9% (12) | 3.1% (12) | ||
| AFC | AFC East | 7-3 | 70.0% (6) | 11.0 (7) | 23.4% (14) | 89.0% (7) | 6.3% (7) | 8.8% (8) | 7.0% (10) | 1.3% (15) | 36.2% (1) | 18.9% (3) | 10.5% (10) | 49.5% (7) | 25.9% (7) | 13.2% (7) | 6.5% (7) | ||
| NFC | NFC North | 6-3-1 | 65.0% (9) | 9.7 (13) | 35.3% (9) | 64.6% (12) | 1.3% (14) | 5.1% (11) | 18.5% (3) | 10.4% (5) | 3.6% (14) | 10.2% (10) | 15.4% (7) | 33.4% (11) | 16.5% (11) | 7.9% (9) | 4.0% (8) | ||
| NFC | NFC North | 6-4 | 60.0% (12) | 9.9 (10) | 28.5% (11) | 64.0% (14) | 1.6% (12) | 5.6% (10) | 17.1% (5) | 4.2% (9) | 5.4% (11) | 12.8% (7) | 17.3% (3) | 33.7% (10) | 16.7% (10) | 8.1% (8) | 4.0% (8) | ||
| NFC | NFC West | 7-3 | 70.0% (6) | 11.3 (6) | 26.3% (12) | 90.8% (6) | 10.0% (6) | 11.0% (6) | 4.1% (17) | 1.1% (17) | 33.6% (2) | 20.1% (2) | 10.7% (9) | 56.2% (6) | 31.4% (5) | 17.0% (5) | 9.3% (4) | ||
| NFC | NFC West | 8-2 | 80.0% (3) | 12.3 (3) | 62.5% (6) | 97.7% (4) | 30.4% (4) | 24.2% (4) | 6.5% (12) | 1.4% (14) | 23.3% (4) | 8.3% (11) | 3.7% (16) | 70.1% (3) | 39.4% (2) | 22.2% (1) | 12.5% (1) | ||
| AFC | AFC West | 9-2 | 81.8% (1) | 12.6 (1) | 86.7% (2) | 98.7% (2) | 32.7% (3) | 29.6% (2) | 21.1% (2) | 3.4% (11) | 5.1% (12) | 4.4% (14) | 2.4% (18) | 70.5% (2) | 39.3% (3) | 22.0% (2) | 11.7% (2) | ||
| AFC | AFC East | 9-2 | 81.8% (1) | 12.4 (2) | 76.6% (4) | 98.6% (3) | 34.1% (2) | 24.4% (3) | 14.3% (7) | 3.7% (10) | 14.3% (6) | 5.6% (13) | 2.2% (19) | 65.9% (4) | 31.2% (6) | 14.8% (6) | 6.8% (6) | ||
| NFC | NFC East | 8-2 | 80.0% (3) | 12.3 (3) | 99.5% (1) | 99.7% (1) | 47.3% (1) | 33.3% (1) | 14.4% (6) | 4.5% (8) | 0.0% (23) | 0.1% (23) | 0.1% (26) | 77.1% (1) | 40.4% (1) | 21.8% (3) | 11.6% (3) | ||
| AFC | AFC West | 5-5 | 50.0% (17) | 9.1 (16) | 3.1% (19) | 38.2% (17) | 0.2% (17) | 1.1% (18) | 1.4% (19) | 0.4% (22) | 5.1% (12) | 11.9% (8) | 18.1% (2) | 19.9% (17) | 10.3% (17) | 5.4% (14) | 2.8% (13) | ||
| AFC | AFC South | 6-4 | 60.0% (12) | 9.6 (14) | 15.5% (15) | 60.5% (15) | 1.7% (10) | 3.9% (13) | 6.9% (11) | 3.0% (12) | 10.7% (7) | 17.2% (5) | 17.0% (5) | 27.4% (15) | 12.1% (14) | 5.2% (16) | 2.2% (16) | ||
| AFC | AFC West | 7-4 | 63.6% (10) | 9.8 (12) | 10.1% (17) | 64.3% (13) | 1.1% (15) | 2.9% (15) | 5.2% (14) | 0.9% (19) | 15.1% (5) | 18.4% (4) | 20.8% (1) | 28.1% (14) | 12.1% (14) | 5.2% (16) | 2.2% (16) | ||
| NFC | NFC West | 7-4 | 63.6% (10) | 10.2 (8) | 11.2% (16) | 80.6% (8) | 3.7% (9) | 4.4% (12) | 2.3% (18) | 0.9% (19) | 25.7% (3) | 26.6% (1) | 17.1% (4) | 39.1% (8) | 17.3% (8) | 7.3% (11) | 3.2% (11) | ||
| NFC | NFC South | 3-7 | 30.0% (23) | 6.4 (23) | 0.7% (22) | 1.9% (23) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.7% (21) | 0.1% (20) | 0.2% (22) | 0.9% (22) | 0.7% (23) | 0.3% (23) | 0.1% (23) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| NFC | NFC North | 4-6 | 40.0% (20) | 7.2 (20) | 2.1% (20) | 9.4% (20) | 0.0% (20) | 0.1% (20) | 1.0% (20) | 1.0% (18) | 0.4% (18) | 2.1% (17) | 4.8% (13) | 3.9% (20) | 1.6% (20) | 0.7% (20) | 0.3% (20) | ||
| NFC | NFC East | 3-8 | 27.3% (26) | 5.6 (26) | 0.1% (25) | 0.2% (27) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.1% (25) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.1% (26) | 0.1% (26) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| NFC | NFC North | 7-3 | 70.0% (6) | 10.2 (8) | 34.1% (10) | 70.0% (10) | 3.8% (8) | 9.1% (7) | 13.4% (8) | 7.8% (7) | 6.0% (9) | 13.5% (6) | 16.4% (6) | 31.9% (13) | 13.3% (13) | 5.4% (14) | 2.3% (15) | ||
| AFC | AFC South | 5-5 | 50.0% (17) | 8.7 (18) | 7.5% (18) | 37.5% (19) | 0.2% (17) | 1.0% (19) | 4.8% (16) | 1.5% (13) | 5.6% (10) | 11.1% (9) | 13.3% (8) | 18.2% (18) | 8.9% (18) | 4.4% (18) | 2.1% (18) | ||
| NFC | NFC South | 6-5 | 54.5% (16) | 8.5 (19) | 25.9% (13) | 38.1% (18) | 0.2% (17) | 1.2% (17) | 5.2% (14) | 19.2% (4) | 1.2% (15) | 3.6% (15) | 7.4% (11) | 14.7% (19) | 5.4% (19) | 1.9% (19) | 0.7% (19) | ||
| NFC | NFC West | 3-7 | 30.0% (23) | 5.9 (24) | 0.0% (26) | 0.5% (25) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (23) | 0.1% (23) | 0.4% (23) | 0.2% (25) | 0.1% (25) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| NFC | NFC East | 3-5-1 | 38.9% (21) | 6.6 (22) | 0.5% (23) | 3.4% (21) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.1% (21) | 0.3% (24) | 0.1% (20) | 0.7% (20) | 2.1% (20) | 1.2% (21) | 0.4% (21) | 0.2% (21) | 0.1% (21) | ||
| AFC | AFC North | 3-7 | 30.0% (23) | 5.8 (25) | 1.3% (21) | 1.9% (23) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 1.2% (16) | 0.0% (23) | 0.1% (23) | 0.4% (23) | 0.7% (23) | 0.2% (24) | 0.1% (23) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| NFC | NFC East | 2-9 | 18.2% (31) | 4.6 (31) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (31) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| AFC | AFC West | 2-7 | 22.2% (27) | 5.2 (27) | 0.0% (26) | 0.2% (27) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.2% (25) | 0.1% (26) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| AFC | AFC North | 5-5 | 50.0% (17) | 8.9 (17) | 42.4% (8) | 48.4% (16) | 0.3% (16) | 1.3% (16) | 5.4% (13) | 35.4% (3) | 0.3% (19) | 1.9% (18) | 3.8% (15) | 24.5% (16) | 11.6% (16) | 5.5% (13) | 2.6% (14) | ||
| AFC | AFC East | 4-7 | 36.4% (22) | 7.0 (21) | 0.0% (26) | 2.4% (22) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.1% (20) | 0.7% (20) | 1.6% (21) | 1.0% (22) | 0.4% (21) | 0.2% (21) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| NFC | NFC South | 2-8 | 20.0% (28) | 5.0 (29) | 0.4% (24) | 0.4% (26) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.4% (22) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (29) | 0.1% (26) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| AFC | AFC North | 2-8 | 20.0% (28) | 5.1 (28) | 0.0% (26) | 0.1% (29) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| AFC | AFC South | 1-9 | 10.0% (32) | 3.7 (32) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (31) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) | ||
| AFC | AFC East | 2-8 | 20.0% (28) | 5.0 (29) | 0.0% (26) | 0.1% (29) | 0.0% (20) | 0.0% (21) | 0.0% (22) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (23) | 0.0% (26) | 0.1% (26) | 0.0% (29) | 0.0% (26) | 0.0% (25) | 0.0% (22) |
Last updated: 11/17/2025, 4:24 PM