PFSN wants to set you up to be a smarter fan this Conference Championship Weekend. Whether you’re rooting for your team or placing bets, here are the most important stats, trends, notes, and insights for every NFL playoff matchup. We know gathering all the information can be time-consuming, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to.
Conference Championship Game Notes
- The four teams playing in the conference championship games are a combined 54-14. The Denver Broncos’ 14-point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars was the only loss by the teams that wasn’t a one-score game.
- Excluding the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks’ two close matchups, which were decided by a combined three points, the four teams posted a 26-11 record in one-score games during the regular season.
- Among the four teams, the Broncos had an 11-2 record in one-score games this season and a point differential of +90, seventh-highest overall. The Seahawks (+191), Rams (+172), and the New England Patriots (+170) ranked first, second, and third in point differential, respectively.
- Los Angeles had a +11 turnover margin, while New England was +3, and Seattle and Denver finished with -3.
- This is the first time since the 1999 season that all four Conference Championship teams forced at least three turnovers in the Divisional Round.
- Head Coaches Conference Championship Game Appearances
- Sean Payton: 4th (1-2); Fifth head coach to make it with multiple teams
- Sean McVay: 2nd (1-0)
- Mike Vrabel: 2nd (0-1; 4-2 as a player)
- Mike Macdonald: 1st
AFC Championship Game
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
PFSN Analytics: Patriots: 67.9% win rate, Broncos: 32.1% win rate
Power Ranking
- NE: 7th (77.3)
- DEN: 3rd (79.2)
Offense
- NE: 2nd (86.6 B) in PFSN’s Offense Impact (OFFi)
- Drake Maye: 2nd (91.1 A-) in PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi)
- Offensive Line: 12th (74.5 C) in PFSN’s Offensive Line Impact (OLi)
- DEN: 15th (75.9 C) in PFSN’s Defense Impact (DEFi)
- Stidham: Four qualified QBi games in his career. Best score: 81.4 (B-) with the Raiders vs the 49ers in 2022. His lowest score was a 72.7 (C-) in 2022.
- Offensive Line: 5th (80.9 B-)
Defense
- NE: 12th (78.2 C+)
- DEN: 1st (90.1 A-)
Special Teams
- NE: 20th (73.9 C)
- DEN: 22nd (70.9 C-)
Preview Notes
- Drake Maye has six fumbles, including three lost, in two postseason games after having eight with three lost in 17 regular-season games.
- The Broncos and Patriots have met in the postseason five times, with the home team winning each time. This will be the fifth time they play in Denver.
- Denver’s defense allowed an NFL-best 2.1 yards per play in the red zone. In contrast, New England’s red zone offense averaged 2.9 yards per play, ranking last in the league.
- On offense, the Broncos averaged 3.4 yards per red-zone play, ranking third in the NFL. Defensively, the Patriots allowed an average of 3.8 yards per red-zone play, ranking last.
- Denver’s fourth-quarter point differential was +64, second-best in the NFL for the regular season. The Patriots’ fourth-quarter point differential was -12, putting them at 19th overall.
- New England would be the ninth team to make a Super Bowl the year after losing at least ten games.
- New England is 9-4 in AFC Championship Games since the 2001 season.
A win gives the Patriots their 40th all-time postseason win, breaking a tie with the San Francisco 49ers. - Denver is 8-2 all-time in AFC Championship games, including 6-1 at home.
- A win would clinch Denver’s ninth Super Bowl appearance, breaking a tie with the Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, and San Francisco 49ers for the second most. New England’s 11 is the most in NFL history.
NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
PFSN Analytics: Rams: 46.6% win rate, Seahawks: 53.4% win rate
Power Ranking
- LAR: 2nd (81.9)
- SEA: 1st (83.9)
Offense
- LAR: 1st (92.3 A-)
- Matthew Stafford: 6th (84.4 B)
- Offensive Line: 1st (90.0 A-)
- SEA: 9th (79.8 C+)
- Sam Darnold: 13th (78.7 C+)
- Offensive Line: 17th (72.0 C)
Defense
- LAR: 5th (85.5 B)
- SEA: 3rd (88.4 B+)
Special Teams
- LAR: 31st (61.7 D-)
- SEA: 2nd (90.9 A-)
Here’s a look at how the first two meetings played out.
Week 11 Matchup
The Rams defeated the Seahawks, 21-19, in Los Angeles.
- Jason Myers: Missed a 61-yard field goal attempt as time expired
- Sam Darold: Four interceptions
- Kyren Williams: 12 rushes for 91 yards and a touchdown
- OFFi – LAR: 72.1 (C-) Â Â SEA: 72.2 (C-)
- QBi – LAR: Stafford: 66.3 (D) Â Â SEA: Darnold: 72.9 (C-)
- PFSN’s Running Back Impact (RBi) – LAR: Kyren Williams: 71.9 (C-)   SEA: Kenneth Walker III: 73.2 (C)  Zach Charbonnet: 70.2 (C-)
- PFSN’s Wide Receiver Impact (WRi) – LAR: Puka Nacua: 79.2 (C+)   SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 80.3 (B-), Cooper Kupp: 72.1 (C-), Rashid Shaheed: 71.2 (C-)
- Team OLi – LAR: 69.6 (D+) Â Â SEA: 85.9 (B)
- DEFi – LAR – 79.0 (C+) Â Â SEA: 77.6 (C+)
- Special Teams Impact – SEA: 84.3 (B) Â Â LAR: 76.8 (C)
Week 16 Matchup
The Seahawks defeated the Rams 38-37 in overtime in Seattle.
- The Rams took a 30-14 lead with 13:34 left in the fourth quarter.
- Seattle scored 16 points in 100 seconds to tie the game at 30 with 6:23 left.
- Matthew Stafford, who finished with 457 passing yards and 3 TD, connected with Puka Nacua for a 41-yard touchdown on the first possession of overtime. Nacua had 12 receptions for 224 yards with two touchdowns.
- After Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s touchdown reception, the Seahawks won the game with a two-point conversion.
- Â OFFi – LAR: 76.3 (C) Â Â SEA: 74.2 (C-)
- QBi – Stafford: 80.2 (B-) Â Â Darnold: 69.3 (D+)
- RBi – LAR: Kyren Williams:Â 71.6 (C-), Blake Corum: 71.1 (C-) Â Â SEA: Kenneth Walker III: 76.6 (C), Zach Charbonnet: 71.2 (C-)
- WRi – LAR: Puka Nacua: 94.8 (A)   SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 80.7 (B-), Cooper Kupp: 73.3 (C)
- Team OLi – LAR: 83.6 (B) Â Â Seahawks: 71.8 (C-)
- DEFi – LAR: 78.2 (C+) Â Â SEA: 71.9 (C-)
- Special Teams Impact – SEA: 88.6 (B+) Â Â LAR: 71.0 (C-)
- The Rams are seeking their sixth Super Bowl appearance, while the Seahawks are a win away from their fourth.
- The Rams under Sean McVay are 6-1 in the playoffs against teams they played in the regular season. The only loss was last season to the Eagles, who also beat the Rams earlier in the season. Four of the six wins came against a team that defeated Los Angeles in the regular season.
- Sean McVay’s ten playoff wins are tied with Don Shula for the most by any coach in NFL history under 45. McVay, 39, has taken the Rams to the postseason seven times in nine years.
- Rams cornerback Cobie Durant has four career postseason interceptions, tying him with Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell for the most by any active player. Both Durant and Mitchell have played in five playoff games. For context, Ed Reed, Ronnie Lott, and Charlie Waters hold the all-time postseason record with nine interceptions each.
- Sam Darnold’s team has 28 wins in the last two seasons when he’s started. That’s tied with Tom Brady for most wins by a quarterback in consecutive seasons.
- Seattle is 11-2 in postseason games played at Lumen Field. Both losses have come against the Rams. In the 2004 season, the St. Louis Rams won 27-20, and after moving back to Los Angeles, the Rams won 30-20 in the 2020 season, when no fans attended the game.
- Kenneth Walker III rushed for 116 yards and three touchdowns last week against the 49ers. His 81.6 (B-) RBi was the best score in the league during the Divisional Round.
