The 2023 NFL Draft is imminent, and with it comes all the attendant surprises that are inevitable when a secretive process is first revealed to the public. No one knows how team boards are constructed or how NFL teams end up valuing the players in the draft. But with the help of draft experts, we can get a good idea of who the top players are.
In fact, the Industry Consensus Big Board is more accurate over a five-year span than any individual board is at predicting individual draft slot. Not only that, it’s consistent throughout the draft at predicting where players will go.
A study by Pro Football Focus found that the consensus big board and the NFL Draft coincide on 80% of players. Essentially, they answer the question, “For a given number X, what percentage of players drafted in the top X was also ranked in the top X of the big board,” with an 80% answer in the second round just as easily as in the seventh round.
Not only that, PFF found that the consensus board tracks closely with the NFL in predicting player performance, outperforming it between the midpoint of the first round and the fourth round, with the NFL pulling ahead at the top and bottom of the draft.
That makes the draft somewhat predictable. But the players that surprise us are often players who we hear about late in the process, ones we haven’t had time to get used to, learn the stories of, or get a handle on their complete skill set.
Those late risers are perhaps the most interesting. Let’s take a look at the players who jumped up draft boards near the end of the draft process.
April Risers in the 2023 NFL Draft
None of the quarterbacks made significant enough moves between the end of March and the end of April to make either list. All of the movement we’ve seen for players like C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson have shown in mock drafts, as rumors have changed their trajectory.
But analysts haven’t waivered on their thoughts on the class, which makes sense — those are the first players that people nail down in their evaluations. Instead, late pro days and underrepresented positions dominate the results.
Chandler Zavala, G, NC State
We already highlighted Chandler Zavala in our piece on the most polarizing players in the draft, and it very much seems like the NFL has picked up on some steam that analysts weren’t aware of.
Zavala had a very late pro day, so he may not have registered on boards without confirmation of his workouts. His workouts were good for a 316-pound lineman, with a 4.70-second short shuttle and a 32-inch vertical.
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Part of the reason it took so long for him to come onto draft radars is because he didn’t get much exposure. Injured early into the 2023 season, Zavala didn’t push his way into the conversation until his workouts gave people a reason to go back and look at the film. After moving up from No. 289 overall to 112, it’s safe to say people were impressed.
Cory Trice, CB, Purdue
Cory Trice had a stellar set of workouts, though his late arrival on the scene has nothing to do with a late pro day. The fact is that there are so many excellent cornerbacks in the draft that it’s difficult to sift through all the talent to properly value this year’s DB group.
But with a 6’3” frame, 32-inch arms, a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, and an 11-foot broad jump, it’s not surprising Trice received attention from analysts. An early March pro day with 6.70-second and 4.06-second agility scores catapulted him to the top of the athlete lists at cornerback.
When analysts caught up, they gave Trice his due. He rose from 214th overall to 122.
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Another entrant on the polarizing player list, Darnell Wright’s late rise seems like it may have as much to do with NFL chatter as anything else. There’s been significant movement to link Wright to a number of teams in the first round, and he may leapfrog other tackles, like Anton Harrison, Dawand Jones, or even Broderick Jones.
Wright’s inconsistency has made him a difficult evaluation, but that defines the draft class. There’s a production gap this year, NFL personnel told Bob McGinn of Go Long. As a result, traits matter. The fact that Wright, though inconsistent, did well against his two best opponents goes a long way, too.
Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
It’s been difficult to find receivers in this year’s draft well suited to playing on the outside. Finding a player like Jonathan Mingo, who measures in above 6’1” and 220 pounds with good workouts, is a bit of a boon for those looking to find late-round value.
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But the secret is out on Mingo, who missed out on a few preseason watchlists because of a midseason injury in 2021. He has the chops to become a starting outside receiver and has risen from 128th overall in late March to No. 80 overall.
YaYa Diaby, EDGE, Louisville
After an excellent Combine workout, analysts were waiting on YaYa Diaby’s pro day to get agility numbers. He never ran the short shuttle or three-cone drills, but the total athletic package is still tantalizing.
Given the relative lack of edge rushers in this year’s draft, it’s no surprise that analysts took a second look at the Louisville prospect and liked what they saw. Diaby rose from 163rd to 107th overall.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
After months of shuffling between WR2 and WR3 in most draft boards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba settled as the top receiver on the board. There’s been much discussion on what separates the three receivers at the top, and that conversation has seemingly moved Smith-Njigba to the top, particularly after his excellent Combine and pro day performances. Now, he’s almost universally considered the top receiver in the draft and has risen from 18th to 12th.
April Fallers in the 2023 NFL Draft
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Quentin Johnston is still considered a top-level receiver talent, but he experienced a drop from analysts as his pro day barely improved upon his disappointing NFL Scouting Combine performance. As more advanced data has been released on the prospects, questions about Johnston’s college route diversity and the translatability of his game have dropped him from 12th overall to 19.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Kelee Ringo’s athletic profile is impressive, but it did confirm several worries that analysts had about the lack of fluidity in his game. Ringo was briefly considered a top-10 pick by analysts, but reviews have dropped him to the late first-round/early second-round range. Over the last month, he’s moved from 27 to 38.
Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
For a while, it seemed as if the need for better linebackers in the draft pushed players like Trenton Simpson up draft boards. But the lack of talent isn’t enough to push the top players into Round 1, and Simpson’s value has settled. He was 29th overall at the end of March but has dropped to 39.
Anthony Johnson, CB, Virginia
Outside of first-round fallers, there have been players who have seen their late pro day performances do little to help them. Anthony Johnson’s agility scores were a bit worrisome, and his projected role as an NFL cornerback has been put into question.
After running a 4.63-second 40-yard dash at the Combine and standing on those numbers, some analysts have pushed Johnson to safety, which has diminished his value. He dropped from No. 194 overall to 256.
Dontay Demus Jr., WR, Maryland
Given his 6’3” frame, Dontay Demus Jr. really should have been able to benefit from an unusually small receiver class. Yet, a disappointing Combine kept Demus out of mid-round consideration for a few analysts.
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Many waited on his late pro day to see if there were better results, but Demus stood on his Combine performances. Without a strong history of production at Maryland, there are only so many people willing to invest in a player like Demus without seeing more — especially given how important speed was to his game in 2021 before his injury. He dropped from No. 159 overall to 221.
Brenton Cox Jr., EDGE, Florida
Off-field concerns dominate the discussion surrounding Brenton Cox Jr. The nature of those concerns has coalesced into a lower final grade for Cox than the more optimistic outlook that people had early in the spring.
He’s a talented player that should’ve seen his overall profile bring him inside the top 100, but the behavioral concerns have moved Cox around boards. After an abysmal pro day late in the cycle, it was hard to keep him in the top 100 for many analysts, and he even fell out of a number of top 200 lists. In late March, Cox ranked 176th, but now, he ranks at 227.
Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame
After starting out his career as a promising college defensive back, transfers and inconsistency have dropped Brandon Joseph’s stock. A disappointing Combine performance didn’t help, and Joseph needed a better performance at his pro day to really raise his stock.
While Joseph improved in his agilities, he ran a worse 40-yard dash. Given that his primary weakness is consistency, it didn’t do much to help his stock. Right now, Joseph ranks 159th after ranking 116th in March.
