An under-the-radar, exciting game — especially for a boring Week 10 slate — is this matchup featuring the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers. These are two high-powered offenses featuring a bunch of talent at the skill positions, giving us a lot of options for player prop bets. But which player props in this game should you be targeting?
Top Lions vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets To Target
Jared Goff Player Props
- Passing Yards: 265.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Pass Completions: 22.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Pass Attempts: 33.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +124/Under -160)
Soppe: For the season, 84.6% of Goff’s rushing yards came on a single carry and he has one whole rushing yard since the beginning of October.
The Chargers are a bottom-five team in terms of preventing yardage per pass and a large part of that is that they don’t get home (bottom-five in QB contact rate).
I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know: Goff has zero interest in running the ball. I like the Lions to win this game and that brings kneel downs into the picture, something that could bail us out should Goff pick up a few yards on a QB sneak or some other fluky play.
Pick: Jared Goff under 1.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 83.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 6.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Longest Reception: 25.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +100
- First Touchdown Scorer: +650
Katz: Sticking with the passing theme of this game, I’m expecting a heavy target load for Amon-Ra St. Brown. While he’s only gone over this number three times, this is a great spot for a fourth.
The Lions are coming off their bye week. In their final game before the bye, St. Brown came up just short, catching six of nine targets. In the two games before that, though, he saw target counts of 19 and 15. That’s more the type of volume I’m expecting against a Chargers defense that is also a pass funnel.
Shout out to MonotoneFootball on Twitter for this great nugget: the Chargers run the second-most Cover 2 in the NFL, while allowing the highest completion percentage when running that defense. ARSB feasts in the middle of the field. He will feast on Sunday.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions (-125 at Caesars)
Sam LaPorta Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
- Longest Reception: 19.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +150
- First Touchdown Scorer: +900
Blewis: The Chargers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, but this number is greatly inflated by Travis Kelce’s 179-yard performance against them a few weeks ago. The only other notable tight end they have faced this season is T.J. Hockenson, who had a solid day himself, with eight catches for 78 yards on 11 targets.
MORE: Brian Blewis’ NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread To Tail
Sam LaPorta has consistently been Jared Goff’s second-favorite target this season behind St. Brown. Considering he has surpassed this total in all but three games this season, and this Chargers pass defense allows the third-most passing yards per game, it almost seems too obvious that the best LaPorta prop bet is the over on his receiving yards.
Pick: Sam LaPorta over 50.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Justin Herbert Player Props
- Passing Yards: 265.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Completions: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Attempts: 35.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Rolfe: This game has the feeling of a shootout between two offenses loaded with exciting pieces. The Lions have been superb this year, and it has reflected in their opponent’s usage stats. Only one team is giving up more pass completions per game than the Lions at 35.3. Now they face a QB who generally has no issues throwing it all over the field in tight games.
Herbert’s attempts and completions per game have come down this year as the offense has looked to be more balanced and a finger injury has hampered things. That finger injury is well on the way to being healed now, and he should be able to find success against this Lions defense.
Picks: Justin Herbert over 23.5 pass completions (-115 DraftKings)
Austin Ekeler Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Rush Attempts: 12.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Receiving Yards: 35.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -145
- First Touchdown Scorer: +550
Katz: Normally, when I see a line that jumps out at me, I have to bet it right away because it will move against me. This line opened at 48.5, and I had a feeling if I waited, I could get a better number — Austin Ekeler is a household name, after all. I was correct, as this moved to 51.5. If it ends up higher, I’m okay with that because I like it at this number. I liked it at 48.5, too.
Ekeler low key has been terrible as a runner this season. At 28 years old, it is entirely possible he is declining, but it’s being masked because he remains an excellent receiver. That is not uncommon. We’ve seen many great running backs decline on the ground, while their ability to excel as receivers ages better.
Ekeler has not run for 50 yards in a game since Week 1. Since returning from his three-game absence, he’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense. They allow just 3.7 ypc and a mere 57 rushing yards per game to running backs.
I’m expecting the Chargers to go with a pass-heavy script this week, utilizing designed screens to Ekeler in lieu of carries. And when they do run, Ekeler is unlikely to be effective, keeping him well short of this number.
Pick: Austin Ekeler under 51.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Keenan Allen Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 79.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 6.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
- Longest Reception: 23.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +135
- First Touchdown Scorer: +850
Broyles: The Lions’ defensive front seven will neutralize the Chargers’ rushing attack, forcing Los Angeles to be one-dimensional. No Mike Williams. No Josh Palmer. Keenan Allen is the last man standing, and QB Justin Herbert has no choice but to lean on the veteran receiver for four quarters.
Pick: Keenan Allen over 79.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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