2024 NFL Defense Rankings: Data Analysis Sees the Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, and New Orleans Saints Rise

Week 1 is now over, and everyone around the NFL, regardless of their area of expertise, is trying to avoid overreacting to a single set of games. That is the same with our 2024 NFL defense rankings as we digest what we saw in the first regular-season game action for all 32 rosters.

Therefore, do not expect to see comprehensive changes in our rankings from last week. There will be some slight tweaks based on what we saw on the field in 2024 after an offseason of hypothesizing what we might expect to see.

2024 NFL Defense Rankings

Stats referenced are from TruMedia unless stated.

1) Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 1)

Statistically, it was a tough week for the Baltimore Ravens. They allowed 7.1 yards per play, the second-highest number of the week, while posting a 57.1% defensive success rate, which was slightly below average. It’s hard to find a number for Week 1 that screams top-ranked defense in the NFL, and Baltimore is formally on notice here.

If the Ravens had their statistical performance from Week 1 against pretty much anyone other than the Kansas City Chiefs, we would probably be talking about them dropping in these rankings. If they don’t post top-tier numbers against the Las Vegas Raiders this week, we could have a new No. 1 in a week.

2) Cleveland Browns (LW: 3)

When you look at the box score, Week 1 was not pretty for the Cleveland Browns. But when we isolate their advanced defensive metrics, it was largely not the fault of this defense that they gave up 33 points.

When dealing with an offensive performance that dreadful, it’s impressive to rank inside the top 10 in a number of advanced metrics. Cleveland allowed only 4.4 yards per play (eighth), had a 67.7% success rate (sixth), and allowed just a 28.6% third-down conversion rate (11th).

3) New York Jets (LW: 2)

The one thing we thought we could count on with the New York Jets was their defense. Week 1 told a very different story, as they ranked in the bottom half in yards per play, defensive success rate, and third-down conversion percentage.

Sure, the offense was messy, but the concern here is that the defense was not top 10 in anything. They may bounce back in a big way against the Tennessee Titans next week, but our eyes will firmly be on the Jets the next time they face a top-tier offense.

T4) San Francisco 49ers (LW: 4)

It was a very impressive showing from the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, but we have no context as to whether Aaron Rodgers’ Jets are a good offense. San Francisco impressed but did not dominate, which is why the gap has closed with the Dallas Cowboys in a tie for fourth.

San Francisco was great against the run but merely average against the passing game, which is where the hesitation comes from. Some of that is garbage-time stat padding for the Jets, but it isn’t like the 49ers completely let off the gas. They finished the week 18th in terms of yards per play (5.4) and 19th in defensive success rate (57.1%). Those numbers need to improve this week.

T4) Dallas Cowboys (LW: 5)

In contrast to the 49ers, the Cowboys’ defense just dominated a bad Browns offense. Dallas was ranked second in yards per play (3.3), defensive success rate (74.4%), and third-down conversion rate (13.3%). If this performance had been against a team we know to have a functioning offense, they very well might have made it into our top three.

6) Pittsburgh Steelers (LW: 6)

No matter what happens in the NFL, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense is usually a unit we can trust, and they demonstrated that in Week 1. Thrown a curveball in the shape of Justin Fields under center instead of Russell Wilson, and the defense needed to be at its best, which was very much the case.

The only thing stopping Pittsburgh from moving up is that none of the defensive metrics we look for were elite in Week 1. Therefore, we need to see them do it again because there is uncertainty over how ready Kirk Cousins was to play in Week 1.

7) Kansas City Chiefs (LW: 7)

It was very tempting to drop the Chiefs a little bit this week because their defensive performance as the game wore on left much to be desired. Ultimately, it wasn’t their brilliance that kept the win intact; it was the Ravens’ misfires.

This week gives us a direct comparison as Kansas City faces the offense that the team directly below them shut down impressively last week. If they struggle, it will be hard to keep them above New England because the defensive metrics from their Week 1 performance were nothing to get excited over.

8) New England Patriots (LW: 8)

The New England Patriots’ defense will have to be on fire if the team is to win games in 2024. They did an excellent job controlling the scoreboard in Week 1, but the defensive metrics were not so slam-dunk that they had to move up from this spot.

The Patriots played bend-but-don’t-break style defense, and it worked, but it wasn’t a true defensive masterclass. They allowed the Bengals to convert 36.4% of their third downs, which was simply league average, while their defensive success rate was well inside the bottom half.

9) Houston Texans (LW: 9)

Judging any defense against Anthony Richardson will be tough this year because his style is so raw. The Texans did a fine job for the most part but gave up some big plays that really hurt them and kept this game close. The biggest red flags are the deep passes and a 50% third-down conversion rate, which Houston will need to fix going forward.

10) Chicago Bears (LW: 10)

If you argue that we should have bumped the Chicago Bears’ defense up a little more here, I won’t argue with you too hard. Their defensive metrics were excellent, with top 10 numbers in yards per play, defensive success rate, and third-down conversions.

If Chicago had done it against a better offense than Tennessee’s, we would be talking about a move up here.

11) Seattle Seahawks (LW: 13)

The Seattle Seahawks were probably one of the hardest teams to judge coming out of Week 1 because their opponent was really bad. Seattle ranked in the top five in yards per play, defensive success rate, and third-down restriction — all fantastic numbers. The problem is that this is what they should have done against Denver.

The only reason Seattle moved up is that the grouping here was so tight coming into Week 1 that a slight improvement was enough to jump them up the tier. The Seahawks need to be equally as good against another mediocre offense in New England this week or they will likely fall straight back down.

12) Philadelphia Eagles (LW: 11)

It took much restraint not to move the Philadelphia Eagles down this week because a lot about Friday was not all that pretty. They were last in the league in terms of yards per play and were gashed by the run on numerous occasions.

However, Philadelphia’s third-down conversion rate (27.3%; ninth) and defensive success rate (61.2%; 12th) showed they did some good things.

13) Miami Dolphins (LW: 12)

The Miami Dolphins’ defense outshone the offense this week and deserves a lot of credit. They were excellent at restricting third-down conversions (20%), which, when you have an offense like theirs, is always likely to pay off eventually. However, the rest of the numbers were pretty mediocre, and we have no clue if the Jacksonville Jaguars are actually good or not.

14) Buffalo Bills (LW: 14)

The Buffalo Bills defense is weird in that the scoreboard says they didn’t do a great job against an Arizona Cardinals offense that we didn’t expect to cause a major problem. However, the advanced numbers say they did a fine job.

Buffalo’s run defense is certainly a red flag, but they did a solid job against the pass and finished with a 4.5 yards-per-play allowed number, which ranked ninth. The overall defensive success rate was 63.3%, but the points allowed were concerning, even if their special teams didn’t help.

15) Detroit Lions (LW: 15)

The Detroit Lions’ Week 1 performance was the opposite of the Bills’. They impressed on the scoreboard but not in terms of their advanced metrics. Nothing about the Lions’ stats stands out as particularly impressive, so having them stay around average is the right move.

Holding the Los Angeles Rams to 20 points is something they can be very proud of, but the metrics behind it don’t paint the same picture. It will be intriguing to see if Detroit has similar scoreboard success against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that was impressive last week.

16) Green Bay Packers (LW: 16)

The Green Bay Packers defense gets a pass this week because the Eagles’ offense is a tough one to shut down. However, there are red flags blinking over both their pass and run defense, which could have pushed them down a few spots.

This unit has a chance to show what it can do because the Packers’ offense could be pretty sluggish with Malik Willis stepping in for Jordan Love. They’ll need to be better than a 20th-ranked yards-per-play performance (5.5) and a 25th-ranked defensive success rate (53.8%). If not, we could see this unit falling and Green Bay losing games.

17) New Orleans Saints (LW: 18)

The New Orleans Saints get a small boost because they did a great job in Week 1, but the context of how poor their opponents were has to temper that excitement. Pick an advanced stat, and the Saints were either top five or top 10 in it, which is a nice start.

If they produce similar numbers against the Cowboys, we may see this unit enter the top 10 of our rankings. However, a competent offense could also bring them back down to the league-average region we see them in.

18) Minnesota Vikings (LW: 19)

Take everything I said for the Saints and paste it here for the Minnesota Vikings. Pick an advanced metric, and they did a great job delivering. However, they cannot get any more credit for shutting down Daniel Jones. Do it this week against the 49ers and we can talk top-10 potential.

19) Cincinnati Bengals (LW: 17)

It’s hard for any casual onlooker to separate the Bengals’ offense and defense. However, when you look at the numbers, Cincinnati did a fine job. We expect the Patriots’ offense to be in the 13-20 point region for most of the year, and that’s what the Bengals held them to.

The advanced stats are fine, but we would have expected a little more than fine against New England’s offense. The Bengals only really moved down here because the Saints and Vikings were truly exceptional against bad offenses while they were mediocre.

20) Jacksonville Jaguars (LW: 20)

For a long time, the Jaguars’ defense did a great job against the Dolphins, but when you watch the tape and examine the numbers, it’s more about Miami misfiring than Jacksonville excelling.

They gave up an 80-yard touchdown, which contributed to a 6.2 yards-per-play number that ranks 28th. One play doesn’t get you dinged, especially when Tyreek Hill is doing it to you, but it also means you’re not getting moved up too quickly.

Overall, the numbers for the Jaguars were fine. However, a 60.3% defensive success rate (14th) is not enough to push you up when considering other contexts.

21) Las Vegas Raiders (LW: 21)

The Las Vegas Raiders posted the third-best defensive success rate of the week (71.7%) and were top 10 in third-down conversions (26.7%). The trouble is that they were opened up by the run game, which proved to be the difference in the game. Overall, this was a mostly positive game for a defense that will have to carry this team.

22) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (LW: 22)

The Buccaneers’ Week 1 success largely comes down to the offense, and we can see that in their numbers. Other than a seventh-ranked third-down conversion rate (25.0%), there’s not much to get excited about. Tampa Bay’s 51.7% defensive success rate ranked 29th in the league, and most of their other numbers were around the league average.

23) Indianapolis Colts (LW: 23)

The Colts’ Week 1 performance was largely what we would have expected from a 23rd-ranked defense. They finished in the bottom half of the league in most statistics and gave up close to 30 points. You don’t get punished for struggling against the Texans, but they will if they cannot shut down Willis and the Packers in Week 2.

24) New York Giants (LW: 24)

The Giants’ defense had no chance with their inefficient and laughable offense. Making Sam Darnold look like a star in the first part of the game is a blot on the copybook, but there were positives as well.

New York finished 13th in third-down conversion rate and defensive success rate, which is enough to keep them at 24th despite the other concerns.

25) Los Angeles Rams (LW: 25)

The Rams’ defense will feel they did a solid job against a good offense for the majority of Week 1. They ran out of steam in overtime, but holding the Lions to 20 points in four quarters is impressive. Their defensive EPA of -8.78 ranked 27th, and their defensive success rate of 47.6% was last.

Despite the promising scoreboard number, however, there is much to be concerned about here.

26) Tennessee Titans (LW: 27)

The Titans’ defense is on our radar as a candidate for a big rise in the next few weeks if they continue to perform as they did in Week 1. They allowed 2.8 yards per play, which was the best in the league, and had a 17.01 defensive EPA (seventh). The only thing stopping Tennessee from jumping up is that we don’t know if Chicago’s offense is good.

Repeat the trick in Week 2 against the Jets, and we could see a big rise after two weeks.

27) Atlanta Falcons (LW: 26)

The Falcons’ defense did everything that was asked of them and finished with top 10 numbers in yards per play, defensive success rate, and defensive EPA. The problem is that it was a Justin Fields-led offense opposite them, and we didn’t expect much. Therefore, just being good doesn’t get you credit — we needed exceptional.

It might be harsh that the Falcons moved down after Week 1, but the Titans’ defense showed such promise against what we expect to be a better offense.

28) Los Angeles Chargers (LW: 28)

The Chargers were good but not great, and against the Raiders, we were looking for at least great. The EPA numbers were good, the defensive success rate was just inside the top 10 (65.0%), and the yards per play allowed (5.0) was 13th. It’s a nice start, but not the elite numbers against a meh offense that we hoped for.

29) Denver Broncos (LW: 31)

We have to move up a team that had two safeties in Week 1. Denver’s advanced numbers were much better than a 31st-ranked defense, but some of it was Seattle looking a little incompetent. This unit could certainly climb after finishing in the top half of the league in EPA, yards per play, and right around average defensive success rate.

If this unit wants to continue its upward trend, we expect a repeat performance against the Steelers as a minimum.

30) Washington Commanders (LW: 29)

The Commanders made Baker Mayfield look like a top-five NFL quarterback, and for that, we could have dropped them further. Yet, the two teams below them weren’t very good either.

Washington basically showed us they were who we thought they were: an overall bad defense that was fine against a run game with question marks.

31) Carolina Panthers (LW: 30)

Carolina’s offense was diabolical, but the defense wasn’t good either. The Saints had their way with the Panthers’ defense through the air and on the ground. It’s hard to identify any particular metric that was bad because they were all fairly awful. It could be a long season in Carolina once again.

32) Arizona Cardinals (LW: 32)

Early on in the game, this ranking looked very unfair on Arizona, and then they kind of fell apart. The Cardinals ultimately finished 31st in defensive success rate and 24th in yards per play, which are concerns. Finishing with a -11.04 EPA and a -15.33 against the pass is the reason that despite the Panthers’ struggles, the Cardinals stay rooted to the bottom.