While the running back class of the 2021 NFL Draft is somewhat underwhelming as a whole, there are potential gems to be found. With a third-round draft projection, Ohio State RB Trey Sermon could be a starter at the next level sooner than some might think.
Trey Sermon’s 2021 NFL Draft projection
Heading into the 2020 season, Sermon was a name most people did not have on their radar. If you only looked at stats without context, it’s easy to understand why. Between an injury-shortened 2019, transferring schools, and a pandemic shortened 2020 season, it took Sermon quite a while to put his talent on display.
However, in those games, he was special. Sermon exploded down the stretch last season with three straight 100-yard rushing games, including a 331-yard performance against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game.
Sermon was likely dealing with lingering effects of his LCL injury, and therefore, the team felt comfortable with Master Teague, given the tumultuous nature of the offseason. What is undeniable is Sermon’s power, vision, short-area quickness, and contact balance. Those traits alone make him an intriguing mid-round steal for a team that focuses on the run.
With Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, and Travis Etienne dominating the conversation, Sermon has been largely forgotten. According to PFN’s Chief Draft Analyst and NFL Insider Tony Pauline’s big board, Sermon is the RB5 of the class and the No. 89 overall prospect with a third-round draft projection.
Best landing spots for Sermon
With Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, and Travis Etienne dominating the conversation, Sermon has been largely forgotten. According to PFN’s Chief Draft Analyst and NFL Insider Tony Pauline’s big board, Sermon is the RB5 of the class and the No. 86 overall prospect with a third-round draft projection.
Atlanta Falcons
If I could handpick the landing spot for Sermon, the Falcons would be the No. 1 option. Under Dan Quinn, the Falcons were one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. Last season, they ran a passing play on 62.1% of their offensive snaps.
With Arthur Smith now as the head coach, I expect this to flip in 2021 and beyond. Smith was a critical part of the Tennessee Titans’ run-based philosophy. Although, it does help when you have someone like Derrick Henry.
Obviously, Sermon is not Henry, but there are some similar traits Smith may covet. Sermon could handle a sizeable number of touches between his contact balance, size (6’0″, 215 pounds), physicality, and vision. Mike Davis was brought in during free agency on a two-year deal, but Sermon could take over the backfield if given the opportunity. With several other needs to address, he could be a fantastic target in Round 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner’s signing with Arizona signified the Steelers were going to address the RB position in the draft — it is just a matter of how early. According to Pauline, the Steelers would likely select Harris if available at pick No. 24. However, what if he is already off the board? Who would be the fallback option? In Pauline’s NFL Draft rumors and buzz article, PFN’s Chief Draft Analyst reported that the Steelers love Sermon and think he is a perfect fit for their system.
The Steelers need an RB who can withstand a large workload and deal with the physicality of the AFC North. Sermon surely fits the bill. There is no question the Steelers have multiple needs. Usually, RB is considered a luxury position and is scoffed at in the first round. With that being said, the Steelers desperately need to find balance on offense after finishing 2020 with the worst rushing attack in the NFL. Unlike other landing spots, Sermon would be RB1 in Pittsburgh come Week 1.
Los Angeles Chargers
What about Austin Ekeler? No, I have not forgotten about him, and by no means am I saying the Los Angeles Chargers have, either. Still, the mere idea of Sermon being the “thunder” to Ekeler’s “lightning” should strike fear in opposing defenses. We had seen this on full display before when Ekeler shared the backfield with Melvin Gordon.
The Chargers exited free agency as one of the most improved teams, and they did a great job upgrading the offensive line. Justin Herbert is a superstar, and throwing Sermon into the mix makes them a threat to compete in the AFC West and the playoffs. The Chargers are not typically a team you see in draft projections selecting an RB, but Sermon may be the exception.
Buffalo Bills
You would be hard-pressed to find anyone who has complete confidence in Devin Singletary or Zack Moss. The Buffalo Bills already own one of the scariest offenses in the NFL. The one spot on the Bills depth chart that could use a boost, however, is at running back. Adding Sermon into the mix would shift that narrative.
Although he does not have homerun speed, he has enough juice to find success. Where his value would be felt the most is inside the red zone. Josh Allen has served as the de-facto goal-line back due to the RBs’ inability to punch it in. That wouldn’t be an issue with Sermon. The Bills could take Sermon at pick No. 61 if they don’t believe he will be around at No. 93.
New York Jets
A critical component of the Shanahan-style offense is a reliable rushing attack. Currently, the New York Jets lack this in their offense. Following the Sam Darnold trade, they are assuredly selecting a quarterback, presumably Zach Wilson.
Having a rushing game to fall back on is pivotal in a young signal-caller’s development, as it takes time to reach the NFL speed and understand the playbook. The Jets have the makings of a solid team under Robert Saleh with a focus on the offensive line. Sermon’s one-cut rushing style would transition perfectly into the NFL game, and thus, fill a gaping need for the Jets.
[su_button url=”https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-first-round-nfl-mock-draft-six-offensive-tackles-on-day-1/” style=”flat” background=”#540008″ color=”#ffffff” size=”5″ wide=”yes” center=”yes” text_shadow=”0px 0px 0px #000000″]Keep Reading! 2021 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Six OTs on Day 1[/su_button]
Want more 2021 NFL Draft prospect news? Want to do your own mock draft?
Dive into PFN’s Free NFL Mock Draft Simulator and test your own drafting acumen. Continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis. Also, be sure to follow us on Twitter (@PFN365) to stay in the loop on all things college football and the NFL Draft landscape.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.
