Thanksgiving is right around the corner. Before three pivotal games, which could end up deciding the playoff bracket in its entirety in both conferences, kick off, we are taking a look back at how the season has unfolded through the first 12 weeks.
With some teams exceeding all expectations, while others turning in largely underwhelming years, let’s break down what the biggest X-factor is for each team moving forward, both in the short and the long term.
1) Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr.
The fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the hope was that the Arizona Cardinals found their WR1 for the foreseeable future. But so far, Harrison has been solid, while others from his class, like Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Brock Bowers, have far surpassed him in production and impact.
Currently ranked at 46 on PFSN’s WR Impact, he has improved from 62 last season, but with others leading near the top of the league, it will be interesting to see if he can find the form that made him such a no-brainer selection.
2) Atlanta Falcons
The Michael Penix Jr. Decision
The Atlanta Falcons chose to go with Michael Penix Jr. as their starting quarterback near the end of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according to plan this year, with the sophomore ranking 26th on PFSN’s QB Impact.
With his third ACL injury, in addition to two separate shoulder problems and lingering knee issues, the risk to his body is getting very high. With a recovery timeline extending deep into the 2026 season, the Falcons need to decide if they want to continue with Penix in the long term.
3) Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson’s Health
On its face, the idea of Lamar Jackson being an X-factor is absurd. But, after an electric start to the campaign, he hasn’t looked like the same player since Week 4. Missing time with a hamstring injury, he’s also dealt with ankle and knee injuries since returning.
Lamar Jackson is locked in pic.twitter.com/lfrRF6EeJ6
— JacksonMuse (@Jackson_muse) November 27, 2025
It’s reflected in his numbers: he’s finished 22nd and 24th in consecutive weeks on QBi. Most notably, he’s been a non-factor on the ground, averaging less than 18 rushing yards per game. If one of his most dynamic traits is compromised, it could severely limit the ceiling for this Baltimore Ravens roster.
4) Buffalo Bills
The Josh Allen Rollercoaster
What seemed like an anomaly after Josh Allen fixed his turnover issues en route to an MVP in 2024 has reared its ugly head this season. With four separate games with multiple turnovers, he’s directly led the Buffalo Bills to some brutal losses, including to the C.J. Stroud-less Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins.
As a result, they’ve lost their stranglehold on the AFC East, which could ultimately affect their playoff chances if they enter the postseason as a wild-card team.
5) Carolina Panthers
The Quarterback Position
Typically, a team with a quarterback as bad as Bryce Young has been in his third season after being drafted first overall in the draft looks for a new quarterback. But the 6-6 Carolina Panthers might be a little too good for their own good.
In all but two games this season, he’s failed to eclipse 200 passing yards, with the defense and Rico Dowdle doing a bunch of heavy lifting for the roster. As a result, the team has to decide whether to continue the experiment another season or try to find a steal late in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.
6) Chicago Bears
Can the Defense Turn it Around?
Injuries have ravaged the Chicago Bears’ entire defensive unit, with their best player, Jaylon Johnson, barely playing all season. The results are apparent, as they rank 25th on PFSN’s Defense Impact.
In a special Black Friday game against the Philadelphia Eagles, as the “alliance” comes to an end, they’re getting some of their personnel back, with more help expected to arrive. It will be interesting to see if those additions to the roster are enough to turn this defense back into its best self.
7) Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals, at 3-8, still have some hope in the AFC North, thanks to the absolutely abysmal state of the division this season. But with a defense that ranks dead last in DEFi, it might be a climb a bit too steep.
Joe Burrow set to make his return from a Grade 3 turf toe injury that sidelined him for 9 games in Baltimore tonight #Bengals pic.twitter.com/tw9n4UMTeM
— Kelsey Conway (@KelseyLConway) November 27, 2025
Joe Burrow, playing his best, led the Bengals to a 9-8 record with this defense. Unfortunately, a similar situation would improve their record. But, it could be all for naught, as the team misses the chance to add some legitimate help in the draft.
8) Cleveland Browns
The Future
Mason Graham was an excellent addition to the defensive line, as he’s ranked 22nd on PFSN’s DT Impact. But, he isn’t the only one. Carson Schwesinger has slotted right into a stifling Browns defense, which has carried the organization to three wins this season.
Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., their two additions to the offense, have been nothing short of excellent. The former, after a delayed start to the year, has come into his own, with 667 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, ranking him No. 28 on RBi.
The latter, while not as prolific in his production for a piss-poor offense, has shown immense potential as a long-term piece. Ranked 23rd on PFSN’s TE Impact, he is leading the team with 462 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Finally, Shedeur Sanders has been better than almost any quarterback the Browns have had since Joe Flacco in 2023, and he has played one complete game as a starter. If he can somehow develop into a fifth-round steal, the future might be bright in Cleveland.
9) Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb
It should have been an absurd statement when the belief arose that George Pickens had been the best wide receiver on the Dallas Cowboys this season. But that is the reality of the situation, even without considering the injury that kept CeeDee Lamb out of the lineup for a stretch.
He’s currently at number 20 on WRi, while Pickens sits in the top three. Moreover, his work in the games has left a lot to be desired, including an absurd eight drops that have severely hampered the Cowboys at various points in the season.
10) Denver Broncos
Bo Nix
For as good as the Denver Broncos are, they are severely held back by the play of Bo Nix. A defense that is far and away the best in the league on DEFi and has drawn comparisons to the 1980s Bears shouldn’t be worrying about fourth-quarter comebacks.
But on a down-to-down basis, Nix has been a rough watch throughout the season, with a passer rating under 90 in seven out of 11 games, including three performances below 70.
11) Detroit Lions
The Offensive Line
The Achilles’ heel of the Detroit Lions’ offense in recent years has been putting pressure on Jared Goff. Unfortunately, with the offensive line deteriorating, that has directly led to inconsistency plaguing the team, forcing Dan Campbell to take back play-calling duties.
Savage: Micah Parsons sacks Jared Goff and tells the Lions fans to “Shut Up” 😭😭
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 27, 2025
After a 15-2 season, they’ve fallen out of the playoff bracket as things currently stand, and the losses on the offensive line might be the biggest reason for their downfall.
12) Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
The lows for Jordan Love have been dangerously flawed this season. In more than half of their games this season, he has finished with fewer than 200 passing yards, while totaling just 15 touchdowns.
The defense has been stellar since adding Micah Parsons, but they’ll need more from Love in the stretch run to cement their chances of a Super Bowl appearance.
13) Houston Texans
Woody Marks
As the weeks go by, it looks more and more likely that the Houston Texans are going to play spoiler in the playoffs, and they’re going to have to do it without Joe Mixon. In his absence, they’ve found a gem in Woody Marks, who’s been performing spectacularly for them, given the struggles of the offense as a whole.
It allowed them to keep a 3-0 record without C.J. Stroud and entrench themselves in the thick of the playoff race. With 422 rushing yards in 11 games, despite getting barely any carries in four games with Nick Chubb in the lineup, he has been a revelation for the Texans.
14) Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones
The team is ready to believe in him, and so far this season, Daniel Jones has given very little reason to doubt him. But the uncertainty remains about hitching their wagon to a player waived by the New York Giants, after being benched in favor of Tommy DeVito.
Add in a fractured fibula that could limit him in the end stretch of the 2025 season, and the problems for the Colts could magnify in a significant way. They’ve started 8-3, but their final six is a brutal gauntlet, and they don’t have their next two first-round picks. All their hopes hinge squarely on Jones.
15) Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr.
From ranking 4th in 2024 to 73rd in 2025 on WRi, Brian Thomas Jr.’s drop has been incomprehensibly bad. Some of the blame is surely on Trevor Lawrence, who hasn’t shown much improvement even under a new head coach.
But the drops are a significant problem for BTJ, who led the league before his injury. Unless he can get it rolling, a turnover-hungry defense might not be enough for the Jacksonville Jaguars to be major players in the playoff race.
16) Kansas City Chiefs
Clutch Games
After going undefeated last season in one-score games, the Kansas City Chiefs started off 0-5 in such scenarios this season. A victory over the Indianapolis Colts could prove to be a swing point on that track, but they’ll need to string together consecutive excellent games to get back in the playoff bracket.
With Rashee Rice finally looking like the WR1 Chiefs fans were anticipating, they have to hope he can stay turned on that corner to drive the wagon forward to close out the season.
17) Las Vegas Raiders
Pete Carroll
Hiring Pete Carroll as the head coach was among the first changes that the new ownership group of the Las Vegas Raiders made to improve their chances of turning the franchise around after a long stretch of mediocrity.
Unfortunately, despite some hefty promises in the offseason, it hasn’t worked out well for the team: it’s won just two games this year, and the defense is ranked 23rd in DEFi. With the possibility of change already apparent with the firings of the special teams coordinator and offensive coordinator, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Carroll be the next name to fall.
18) Los Angeles Chargers
The Offensive Line Injuries
The injury to Rashawn Slater was always going to be a major detraction for the Los Angeles Chargers. But Joe Alt also suffered a season-ending injury, derailing their hopes significantly, and the offensive line fell apart at the seams.
Ranked as the third-worst unit on PFSN’s Offensive Line Impact, it has resulted in constant pressure on Justin Herbert, leading to an injury that forced him to check out of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are another playoff contender that blew out.
19) Los Angeles Rams
Field Goals
An MVP candidate, an all-guns-blazing offense, and a defense that is top-three in the league by virtually every metric make it hard to find flaws with the Los Angeles Rams. But the one question mark throughout the season has been their ability to convert points.
While Stafford leads the league in touchdowns, the same cannot be said for their propensity for field goals. Jake Karty knocked down just 10 of 15 attempts in eight games, while missing three extra-point attempts in 26 kicks as well.
Harrison Mevis has been better on a technicality, converting both of his field goals and all 13 of his extra point attempts in three games. Unless he turns out to be the answer, the Rams need to make sure they’re putting points on the board apart from touchdowns as well.
20) Miami Dolphins
The Record
This season seemed like a wash for the Miami Dolphins when they were blown out by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. Since then, they’ve done nothing but reinforce that notion, while barely scraping by to four victories.
General manager Chris Grier is already out, while other moves might not be too far behind. However, four wins are already a lot, as it could screw up their chances of landing a high-end first-round draft pick. Now, it will be interesting to see what the focus is as we close out the season.
21) Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy
Given the brutality of the NFC North, this season might be over for the Minnesota Vikings from a playoff perspective. Unfortunately, a lot of the blame lies with the quarterback Kevin O’Connell hand-picked for the role multiple times, J.J. McCarthy.
Ranked as the third-worst player on QBi, he has four more interceptions (10) than passing touchdowns (6), while recording less than 150 passing yards in half of his games. Unless Minnesota can find some reason to stick by him, a change under center might come sooner than most fans anticipated.
22) New England Patriots
Youth
Some of the most significant contributors, including quarterback Drake Maye, aren’t long-tenured NFL players or haven’t had much success at the highest level. As a result, it is uncertain how the team will fare in the postseason, where a berth seems all but guaranteed for the New England Patriots.
Their propensity for turnovers seems like a direct result of that inexperience, with one of two losses coming in a game in which they gave the ball away five times. Fixing those mistakes could be the difference between a flash in the pan and a deep playoff run for the Patriots.
23) New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough
Giving their second-round pick the starting job midway through the season seems like the perfect way to get a lay of his talent level and how he would fare as the franchise quarterback for the New Orleans Saints.
With an abysmal record, they have every chance to add a difference maker in the 2026 NFL Draft. It is on Tyler Shough, though, to decide for the organization between choosing that jump at quarterback or in the players around him.
24) New York Giants
The Next Head Coach
It’s been a long time since the New York Giants had a stable head coach who could carry the organization for an extended period. With Cam Skattebo, Abdul Carter, DeMarcus Lawrence, Malik Nabers, and Jaxson Dart, they have a roster brimming with talent that might only get better moving forward.
But they need the right voice in the locker room and on the sidelines to nurture that group and make them a legitimate threat in the NFC. Ultimately, this could be the biggest decision the Giants have made since choosing between Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones.
25) New York Jets
The 2026 Quarterback Class
The new era of New York Jets football under Aaron Glenn will be hard to start without a stable name at quarterback. Justin Fields has repeatedly proven that he’s not that guy, and after being benched in favor of Tyrod Taylor, it’s clear that the Jets don’t see him as such either.
Instead, as they remain in the race for the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, their focus can shift to names like Fernando Mendoza and LaNorris Sellers to alter the course of the franchise as a whole.
26) Philadelphia Eagles
Kevin Patullo
It doesn’t matter who the problem’s source is. But an offense featuring one of the best offensive lines in the league, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and reigning Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts shouldn’t be this mediocre.
Among the two worst teams in the league in drives ending with a 3-and-out, Philadelphia has no offensive consistency whatsoever. The noise from the outside, and even the inside, is getting louder by the minute. It might not be all his fault, but new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo has the responsibility to fix it.
27) Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin
One of the most celebrated head coaches in NFL history being an X-factor should be asinine. But the Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in a decade, the defense is the highest-paid in the league, and they are still unable to stay above average on that side of the football.
Aaron Rodgers has been fine since joining the black and yellow. Still, they need more out of the defense to not squander a golden opportunity in the AFC North with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow both missing extended periods of time.
28) San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
This answer could have been drastically different before their Week 12 MNF encounter. On the season, Brock Purdy has eight touchdowns against seven interceptions. That has been a microcosm of the hit-and-miss season he’s had throughout.
Add in the injury concerns that are starting to mount with the turf toe serving as his third significant injury in four seasons as a starter, and the five-year $265 million contract might suddenly be looking like a disastrous deal for John Lynch, unless the former Mr. Irrelevant can turn it around.
29) Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold
At some point, you can break through your prior reputation. But after melting down in the final two games of the 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings, Sam Darnold has been excellent for a new organization and system, ranking sixth on QBi.
However, facing a Los Angeles Rams team that ended his season in the playoffs last year, he reverted to his worst self, with zero touchdowns and four interceptions. At this point, with two straight excellent seasons under his belt, Darnold deserves the benefit of the doubt.
But he has to prove he can get it done on the biggest stage to solidify his placement in the NFL hierarchy.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Return Timelines
We are in deep waters as far as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are concerned. Starting 3-0, they have fallen to 6-5 with the division in jeopardy behind a frisky Carolina Panthers team. It is easy to pinpoint the injuries as the reason for their failure.
But at some point, they need to start getting healthier to have any chance of making it, and then going on a deep run in the playoffs. Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Calijah Kancey, Haason Reddick, and Ben Bredeson remain out of the lineup, with Baker Mayfield close to joining them as well.
Baker Mayfield was warming up at practice today 👀
Haason Reddick, Ben Bredeson, Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison all look fine. Anthony Nelson is back from an illness as well, per @NFLSTROUD.
🎥: @NFLSTROUD
— SleeperBucs (@SleeperTBBUCS) November 27, 2025
If they can’t get the right pieces back in time, a season that seemed so optimistic at the start could fall to shambles in the blink of an eye.
31) Tennessee Titans
The Right Head Coach
The Tennessee Titans are in a very similar position to the New York Giants when it comes to their hopes for the future. The game tape has shown some excellent work from Cam Ward, despite his offensive line consistently letting him down.
Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike have two weapons who have shown immense potential to pair with Ward, with the latter even emerging as an excellent kick returner. The bones are there, but the right head coach is what the Titans need after a disastrous run by Brian Callahan.
32) Washington Commanders
The Jayden Daniels Call
Yes, Jayden Daniels had the best rookie season for a quarterback in NFL history. But the injury concerns, which were already high given his stature, have only grown multifold during his time in the league.
A rib injury, hamstring issue, knee injury, and a dislocated elbow have already severely hampered him in the first 25 games of his career. If injuries could be turned off like in Madden, then he is the unquestioned answer for the franchise.
But in reality, the organization needs to take a call on how they wanna handle the Daniels business.