The perennially underrated Kirk Cousins is now with his third NFL team. The Atlanta Falcons were able to pry the veteran QB away from the Minnesota Vikings for four years and $180 million, according to Tom Pelissero. This is easily the most impactful signing for fantasy football. Just how good is this for Drake London and Kyle Pitts?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Kirk Cousins Signing With the Atlanta Falcons?
Ironically, the player least impacted by Cousins going to the Falcons is…Kirk Cousins. Whether in Washington or Minnesota, Cousins has always been the same guy. He’ll give you around 18-20 fantasy points per game and by right on the QB1/2 border.
Cousins has been the guy who makes the offenses better. He’s got similarly talented weapons to work with in Atlanta as he did in Minnesota. The real story is what Cousins means for everyone else.
Drake London’s Price is Going Up
Obviously, fantasy ADP in March is meaningless. Nevertheless, wherever London was going in early drafts is not where he will be going in August and September.
After a solid rookie season, London was a popular breakout candidate last year. Unfortunately, he was held back by one of the worst combinations of coaching and quarterback play you will ever encounter.
There will undoubtedly be fantasy managers out there too jaded from getting burned by London last year to risk it happening again. As annoying as it was to be heavily invested in London last season, it would be even more annoying if I abandoned ship now, only to watch London become the guy I thought he would be. That’s right. We are going right back to the well with London.
London has finished outside the top 36 wide receivers each of his first two seasons. Fantasy managers paid for the breakout in advance last season and it never came. We will be doing it again this year.
The difference this year, at least for me, is I really don’t think London will become too expensive. If you, like me, believe London is extremely talented, then what’s the difference between London and someone like Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins, both of whom I expect to maintain higher ADPs than London?
We paid for a Wilson breakout last season but didn’t get it because Aaron Rodgers got hurt. Meanwhile, Collins completely smashed almost entirely due to a massive QB upgrade.
By no means is Cousins an elite QB. However, you will be hard-pressed to find a larger upgrade than going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins.
With Cousins at the helm and Zac Robinson running a Sean McVay offense, I genuinely believe London has a top-12 upside. He’s not going to cost a top-12 pick at the position. London is without question the biggest winner of the Cousins signing.
Kyle Pitts Gets a Bump As Well
Most of the great things that apply to London also go for Pitts. There’s a bit of added concern about Pitts, as he’s burned fantasy managers longer than London. However, we saw Cousins take T.J. Hockenson to the next level during their short time together in Minnesota.
Whether you buy into this being the year for Pitts boils down to how much you attribute his disastrous 2023 season to him recovering from a 2022 knee injury. If Pitts truly wasn’t healthy, that’s actually good news for his 2024 fantasy value.
Pitts was once considered the greatest tight-end prospect of all time. He had over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. With Cousins, Pitts has a legitimate shot to finish as the overall TE1. I know that may sound like hyperbole, but if the talent is there, Cousins is the key to unlocking it.
It’s Wheels Up for Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson was viewed as a disappointment last year purely because of expectations. As a first-round pick in fantasy drafts, Robinson’s 14.5 fantasy points per game wasn’t enough. But it’s not like Robinson was bad. The kid made several spectacular plays throughout the year. The problem was mostly volume.
Robinson saw just a 47.3% carry share. That’s unacceptable for a guy this talented who was taken in the first round.
Robinson still managed 1,463 yards from scrimmage in a “down” year. Things were already looking up for him when the team brought in Zac Robinson as the offensive coordinator. Coming from the Sean McVay coaching tree, Robinson has a history of feeding one running back. Now, Robinson has the quarterback that can unlock his 20-touchdown upside.
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Few running backs can do it all like Robinson. We saw the explosive plays. The touchdown upside is now there. And with a stationary quarterback, the receiving upside remains intact.
Robinson saw a 17.2% target share last season, third in the league. That should drop a bit this year, as Cousins is far more capable of getting the ball to actual wide receivers. Even so, Robinson should more than make up for it with efficiency.
Fantasy managers who made Robinson the third running back off the board last season were disappointed. I’ve still got Christian McCaffrey No. 1, and Breece Hall No. 2, but Robinson sure looks poised to take that No. 3 spot once again.
What’s Great For the Falcons is Awful For the Vikings
It’s all sunshine and rainbows for the Falcons offense. Cousins is the rising tide that lifts all ships. Back in Minnesota, things aren’t as fun.
If Cousins’ Achilles tear has any silver lining, it’s that we got to see what this offense looks like without a capable QB. Justin Jefferson will be just fine, but I can’t help wondering if losing Cousins takes him out of the running for overall WR1 this season.
The biggest loser is going to be Jordan Addison. I really like the talented sophomore receiver, but he struggled last season after Cousins went down.
KEEP READING: NFL Free Agency Tracker 2024
In eight games with Cousins, Addison averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. For context, 16.0 points per game is roughly the threshold for WR1 production. In nine games with quarterbacks not named Kirk Cousins, notably Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall, Addison averaged 10.5 fantasy ppg, making him mostly unstartable.
The Vikings’ 2024 starting quarterback is likely going to be Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, or a rookie. We’ve only ever seen Fields support one quality wide receiver — DJ Moore. Darnold has never been effective in any capacity. And historically, rookie QBs can’t support more than one top-36 wide receiver (unless they’re named C.J. Stroud).
It sure looks as though the Vikings offense is going to be one to avoid this season.
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