Efficiency has been an issue for Saquon Barkley of late (under 4.0 yards per carry in two of his past three seasons), but that, in my humble opinion, was more of a New York Giants problem than a Barkley one. His move to the Philadelphia Eagles could easily change that narrative and boost his fantasy football value to a new level.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Saquon Barkley Signing With the Philadelphia Eagles?
For me, entering free agency, the top tier of running back was a list of four (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs).
Kyren Williams and Jonathan Taylor were knocking on the door of consideration with Barkley and Travis Etienne Jr. sitting in the back of that second tier. With this signing, Barkley has leapfrogged those three and now sits at the top of my second tier. Could he enter that top tier?
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It’s certainly possible. Jason Kelce’s retirement could greatly impact Philadelphia’s play-calling inside the 10-yard line, something that could have Barkley in position to set a career-high in touchdowns (he scored 15 times as a rookie).
Of course, the removal of a steadying force on the offensive line could also result in fewer running lanes, so I’m not projecting him for a score per game.
The floor is what had my attention in the first round. The Eagles showed no hesitation in committing to D’Andre Swift last season despite him never handling a bell-cow role, and I’d expect them to count on Barkley in a significant way from the jump.
2024 Redraft: Soppe First Round
- Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
- Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
- Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
- Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
- Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
- Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
- Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
In 2023, the G-men boasted the 29th-ranked offense in yardage and 30th in scoring, marks that make it difficult for any fantasy player. Despite the ineptitude around him, Barkley has punched in 20 scores in his 30 games over the past two seasons. And now he joins an offense that ranks seventh in red-zone trips over the past three seasons and is in win-now mode.
I’m expecting a bounce back in efficiency (somewhere in the range of the 4.8 yards per carry he averaged through his first two seasons and the 4.6 Swift averaged in this offense last season), with his career average of 3.9 catches per game serving as a low-end of where my projection will fall.
I’m not sure there is a clear path to Barkley pacing the position in fantasy points, barring an injury at the top of the rankings. But he could return Tier 1 value at a little bit of a pick discount on draft day, making him a phenomenal piece to build around.
As for the rankings of his new teammates in 2024, I don’t think it does much for the receivers. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith come with their ups and downs week-over-week, but another season where they combine for 2,500-ish receiving yards and 15-ish touchdowns is something I’m comfortable in forecasting.
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Jalen Hurts is the interesting case, as a team isn’t likely to hand out a $37.75 million deal to a running back if their plan of attack is to have their franchise QB pick up the tough yards on the ground.
Barkley should only help his development as a passer, but if he’s not close to repeating the 15 rushing scores he had from a season ago, he’s going to struggle to remain in my top tier at the position. He’s obviously still an asset, but a decline is more likely than an improvement.
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
If you’re grabbing Barkley at the end of the first round of your draft and pairing him with an elite target earner at the WR position, I think you’re well on your way to big things!