Soppe’s Week 3 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at NE)

At this point in his career, Aaron Rodgers is going to need everything to align just right for him to even be in the mix for me in standard-sized leagues.

To say that’s not the case for this matchup is an understatement of epic proportions.

The Steelers, through two weeks, have the most low-octane offense in the league. They don’t have explosive plays coming out of the backfield, and Rodgers owns the lowest aDOT in the league.

We saw him dismantle his former employer with the dink-and-dunk routine, but the Patriots are the eighth-best after-the-catch pass defense in the league since the beginning of last season, and that makes this very much a dud spot for the future Hall of Famer.

Maybe the fact that Rodgers lit up the Pats for 514 yards and four scores in two meetings last season will bring with it some DFS punt interest?

We can only hope. I’m much more likely to roster the Patriots defense with Drake Maye, hope that New England can score, and thus put Rodgers in the type of aggression spot that he’s actively avoiding at this point in his career.

Baker Mayfield | TB (vs NYJ)

I don’t know how you walk away from Monday Night Football without being super impressed with Baker Mayfield.

Sure, the game-saving scramble was nice, and the clutch throws, but how about him largely taking what was given to him? Sans a few forced throws to Mike Evans, Mayfield was responsibly aggressive.

I’m not sure I’ve ever used those words together, but it fits. He completed 11-of-12 passes when he targeted Bucky Irvin, Rachaad White, or Cade Otton against the Texans. That “take your medicine” approach figures to play well in this spot against the third-best blitzing defense in the league.

The catch with New York is that when they don’t bring the blitz, they are nothing more than ordinary in terms of pressure rate. Mayfield can pick apart their blitz with the high-percentage passes we saw him eat up last week, and if they decide to sit back in coverage, I’m not sure anyone can deal with both Evans and Emeka Egbuka down the field.

Oh, yeah, and this game is being played at home, where the Bucs have leaned into their QB dictating their fate even more.

Opportunities per game, 2024

• Home: 39.7 per game
• Road: 34.1 per game

I’ve got Mayfield comfortably inside my top 10 this week and feel good about the floor he comes preloaded with, even in a seemingly difficult matchup.

Bo Nix | DEN (at LAC)

Of 34 qualifiers, Bo Nix ranks 33rd in average depth of target and 22nd in yards per non-blitzed pass attempt. He’s spreading the ball around and relying on his teammates to make plays in space, which is not a bad way to approach most matchups, but it’s not the optimal strategy against the Chargers.

Through two weeks, the Bolts blitz at the fourth-lowest rate, and part of that is because they are more than comfortable to sit back in coverage and tackle (third-fewest yards after the catch per reception allowed since the beginning of last season).

Nix hasn’t surpassed 20 rushing yards in either game this season, and that makes it hard to see him doing enough to crack starting lineups this week.

Could that all change? In theory, backward-looking analysts could lead you down that path. Nix ran for 86 yards across the two Charger games last season and was potent in the short passing game (passes thrown less than 10 yards in those games: 39-of-54, 72.2%).

I’ll take the other side. This is a swarming Los Angeles defense that can minimize the impact of those dumpoffs. Nix was just 1-for-6 when throwing deep against them last season, and if the field shrinks on him this week, it’s going to be a long day.

I’m still pro-Nix for the season, just not on Sunday.

Brock Purdy | SF (vs ARI)

The results for Brock Purdy in Week 1’s win over the Seahawks were mixed. On one hand, he threw multiple touchdown passes and ran five times. On the other, he matched his September 2024 interception total and ranked 17th by way of our true accuracy metric.

For the first game without Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk, I was cautiously optimistic, but a foot injury cost him last week, and his status is up in the air at the moment.

It shouldn’t matter to you.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Tool

Purdy is in the starting QB mix when at full strength, but he’s not the type that I’m jamming into a lineup at less than full strength. Consider that this was a matchup that resulted in his second-lowest completion percentage (54.3%) and one of his three multi-interception games in 2024: this isn’t a situation you need to worry about.

Hold Purdy if you’d like, but the schedule isn’t overly appealing outside of a Panthers matchup in Week 12, and a late bye (Week 14) has him sitting outside of my starting tier at the position in my rest-of-season rankings.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs ATL)

I’ll go ahead and let other DFS players chase the ghost.

Bryce Young’s best game last season came in Week 18 against these Falcons (36.4 fantasy points, 25-of-34 for 251 yards, and three scores to complement 24 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground), and the thought process easily could be that he has a better WR1 this time around.

Great. I don’t see it.

Young is averaging 5.4 yards per pass this season and had more sacks than rushing yards in Week 2. He had the crazy fourth quarter (169 yards and two touchdowns), but that was the product of overt aggression and some awfully fortunate bounces.

Maybe he hits the fantasy lottery in consecutive weeks: I’m OK with being on the side that bets against that happening.

No one is counting on Young in one-QB leagues, and I’m not tempted to go this direction in any DFS format.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (at JAX)

Talk about a gotta-have-it game. In a perfect world, this is a 41-37 type of game, and both offenses flex the upside we believe they have.

More likely, that doesn’t happen. C.J. Stroud has just one touchdown toss on 51 attempts this season, and it took Nico Collins summoning every athletic bone in his body to make it happen.

He’s quietly rushed for 24+ yards in both games this season, but that’s been more the product of running for his life than anything by design.

His career numbers against the Jaguars are strong (20+ fantasy points in three of four with seven scores and zero interceptions), and if this Houston line can hold up against the 28th-ranked pressure defense, I think we could see some glimpses of rookie Stroud.

I’m leaving the light on for him in terms of a single-bullet DFS lineup where I lean fully into this game, understanding that this is a risky situation given the lack of form from this unit thus far.

Caleb Williams | CHI (vs DAL)

As a rookie, four of Caleb Williams’ five best fantasy performances came at home, and he could add to that total on Sunday after the Cowboys allowed Russell Wilson to have a career day.

Williams has a 30-yard or more completion and a 10-yard or more run in both divisional games this season, showcasing the versatility that gives him the potential to be a QB1 in any given week.

The Dallas defense doesn’t scare me, and their offensive structure almost mirrors the 2024 Bengals. The Cowboys were involved in the game of the week last weekend, and there’s a non-zero chance it happens twice in a row.

I’m a little worried that Williams hasn’t cleared 210 passing yards in six of his past seven games, but I’m hanging my hat on his versatility and have him as my QB11 for this week.

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs IND)

I’m a big “numbers never lie” guy, but I will say that I don’t think they tell the whole story with Cam Ward.

Through two starts, I’ve been encouraged enough to think that Tennessee has its guy. He’s shown the type of patience and self-preservation instincts that can win at this level, a win for an organization that could use one at this position.

For fantasy, the 11-second play that ended with a Hail Mary of sorts to Elic Ayomanor last week was fun. Maybe we get more of that with time, and his ability to distribute the ball (six throws to six different players to open Week 2) is something few rookies have.

There’s something in this profile, but not for Week 3 and probably not for 2025.

Carson Wentz | MIN (vs CIN)

Carson Wentz is going to get a few starts for the Vikings as J.J. McCarthy nurses a high ankle sprain. The journeyman will be taking snaps for his sixth franchise in as many seasons, and the hope is that he can execute the Kevin O’Connell system at a high enough level to stay competitive.

• Week 3 vs. Bengals
• Week 4 vs. Steelers (in Dublin)
• Week 5 vs. Browns (in London)

Wentz himself is not deserving of your attention, but his ability to fill up the target bucket for Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and, eventually, Jordan Addison is what fantasy managers will be eager to learn.

Dak Prescott | DAL (at CHI)

I think there’s a good chance that, by year’s end, we look back at the weekly results and notice that the NFC North served as fantasy steroids.

Either you’re trying to keep up with Green Bay/Detroit, you’re picking apart the Bears, or you’re getting caught in a fast-paced game with the Vikings due to their blitz rate.

All of those teams look different, but all come with a reasonably clear path to fantasy points galore, and that’s a comfort zone for the 2025 Cowboys.

Dak Prescott had seven passing yards in the first quarter last week before leading his team all the way back, so try to hang tough, even if things don’t look great early.

In that win over the Giants, 28 of his 38 completions came on balls thrown no more than 10 yards downfield: keep the chains moving and applying pressure. I love that approach for teams that I’m invested in, and I think we see it on full display again on Sunday.

There is a little Jared Goff when it comes to Prescott, and I view it as my job to inform you of potential pitfalls:

Career splits, fantasy PPG

• Home games: 21.1 PPG, 8.4 aDOT
• Road games: 16.2 PPG, 7.8 aDOT

He didn’t get to face the Bears for all of those games, and not all of them came in clean weather spots. I’m starting Prescott (and four of his teammates) with confidence this week.

Daniel Jones | IND (at TEN)

Three rushing touchdowns, 71.4% completion rate, no turnovers.

Other than that, Daniel Jones hasn’t done anything special.

The former Giant was QB3 in Week 1 against the Dolphins, a performance that we all pushed aside due to the matchup. But when he hung a QB5 finish on the Broncos last weekend, we had no choice but to take notice.

So what do we do now?

I think you have to consider playing him. He’s my QB12, ranking ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Bo Nix, to name a few. Since the beginning of last season, five times a QB has reached the 20-point plateau against Tennessee, and four of them (Jayden Daniels, Malik Willias, Josh Allen, and Anthony Richardson) were serious risks with their legs.

Asking Jones to get to 20 points is about what I’m looking for (20.2 points would have been QB12 on the nose last week). I like his odds to throw for 300 yards more than I do for him to pile up the rushing points due to the low-pressure/blitz metrics behind the Titans’ approach, but it doesn’t really matter how he gets there.

Sign me up for 250 passing yards, two scores, and 20 rushing yards.

That’ll work!

Drake Maye | NE (vs PIT)

Drake Maye showcased his upside last week in Miami by completing 82.6% of his passes and rushing 10 times (31 yards, TD). How exceptional was that showing? Jayden Daniels was the only QB to have a game like that last season.

If I knew we were going to get that version of him consistently, he’d be a top-10 option moving forward, but I need more than a single data point against perhaps the worst defense in the league before I project it.

That said, this is a unique week. Given the number of injuries at the position and other players in this range in tough spots (Bo Nix and Justin Herbert facing each other, for example), Maye sneaks into my top 10 at the position.

I’m hopeful that Maye carries over the momentum from last week and that we are off to the races with the Panthers up next and a trip to New Orleans in the near future. If Maye is going to establish himself as a weekly option and potential league winner, we will see major signs of it this weekend.

Geno Smith | LV (at WAS)

Geno Smith was a mess on Monday night, and I have a hard time thinking that the Commanders are the cure on a short work week.

Against the Chargers last week, Smith completed just 48.6% of his non-blitzed dropbacks with zero touchdowns and three picks. Since the beginning of last season, Washington ranks as the sixth-best team at generating pressure without having to bring an extra defender, a skill that projects to give this very limited offense all sorts of fits.

Geno Smith’s rushing is less of a weapon these days and cannot be counted on to bail you out. There’s no reason to look this deeply at the position in any one-QB format, and, to be honest, I wouldn’t be thrilled about making this call in a superflex setting.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs CIN)

A high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up on Sunday night against the Falcons.

I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs at the moment.

Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.

This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2025.

The Vikings will turn to 32-year-old Carson Wentz to steady the ship for the short term, something that fantasy managers are right to be wary of.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs LAR)

Jalen Hurts is QB14 through two weeks, and the man hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass yet.

He’s got at least one rushing TD in 15 of his past 19 games (playoffs included). We get something of an unstoppable force/immovable object situation with the Rams ranking third in red zone defense since the beginning of last season. Still, until I see someone stop this Eagles machine in close, I’ll bet against it.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer 

You don’t have to rank Hurts as your QB1, but the floor that comes with how this offense is structured locks him in across all formats without a second thought.

Jared Goff | DET (at BAL)

Jared Goff has one great week and one poor one for fantasy purposes, but when you consider that he’s completed 80.6% across the two starts, he’s still the efficient passer that he was under Ben Johnson.

My hunch is that most defenses are going to be better than the Bears (11.9 yards per pass with as many touchdowns as incompletions) and worse than the Packers (5.8 yards per pass with an interception and four sacks), leaving us without much new information around the value of Goff in 2025.

Last season, Goff averaged 17.2 fantasy points in road games, not a bad showing, but more than 3.5 points fewer than what he put on the board at home and consistent with what we’ve seen over the past 2+ seasons (29.2% fewer fantasy points per game on the road).

Josh Allen picked apart this Ravens defense for a quarter of Week 1, but they grade out much closer to the Packers than the Bears. While the game has the potential to shoot out, I’m having zero issues in benching Goff on the heels of a near-perfect performance in front of his home fans over the weekend.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs LV)

If you told me that, through two weeks, Jayden Daniels had an 11-carry game and a 42-pass game, I think you’d take that.

Usage isn’t the problem right now. In fact, I’m not the least bit worried. Daniels is still the dynamic athlete you drafted as a part of the top tier at the position, and his connection with Deebo Samuel thus far (14 completions) is better than most assumed it ever would be.

He’s played a Giants team with a nasty front and a Packers defense that, with Micah Parsons trending close to full strength, has an argument to be the best unit in the league.

Relax.

The Packers had a straightforward plan on Thursday night, and because of their elite talent, they were able to execute it: not every defense can do that. They held Daniels in the pocket for 92.9% of his passes in Week 2, and as good as he can be with his arm, if his legs aren’t weaponized, he’s going to struggle to return anything close to value.

If there is going to be a buy-low window (there likely won’t be), it figures to close this weekend, at home, as a favorite, on a long work week. The more likely outcome is playing a little bit of chess while your league mates play checkers.

• Week 12 bye
• Week 13 vs. Broncos
• Week 14 at Vikings
• Week 15 at Giants
• Week 16 vs. Eagles

Daniels is great, but we’ve seen two talented defenses keep him contained, and we could see more of that over the final month of the fantasy regular season and into the playoffs.

Keep Daniels. Play Daniels when he’s active.

But if we get a big performance the next time he takes the field, I’m not going to call you crazy if you consider cashing in that chip.

Joe Burrow | CIN (at MIN)

We spent all offseason wondering aloud if Joe Burrow was the top quarterback in the second tier or if his elite passing numbers were enough to put him in the class of the athletic marvels at the position.

They were fun conversations to have, but they don’t matter now. Burrow (turf toe) is going to be out until December at the very least, and that means he’s going to be cut loose in all leagues that don’t have enough IR room for him. And even then, we aren’t sure the Bengals will be in a position to compete when Burrow returns to the practice field.

I want to use this brutal injury as a launching point. Football is as physically taxing a team sport as there is. That’s obviously more true for some positions than others, but it’s a gladiator sport where everyone on the field isn’t far from a significant injury.

READ MORE: Bengals HC Zac Taylor Hints Joe Burrow Could Return During 2025 NFL Season

The four quarterbacks drafted ahead of Burrow this summer are much more athletic, and their ability to run often gets tied to an increase in injury risk. I understand the train of thought: they invite contact when they are on the move.

That’s accurate.

But what doesn’t get looked at enough is the other side of the coin: that quarterback is also capable of escaping trouble spots at a higher rate than average. No one is catching Jayden Daniels from behind, so while he is at risk of taking punishment, it’s usually coming head-on, and in those spots, he has the opportunity to make a business decision.

I’m not arguing that Burrow is MORE likely to get hurt than the Daniels’ of the world, though it is worth noting that he missed six games in 2020 and seven more in 2023. I’m arguing against the assumption that athletic quarterbacks are reckless investments.

Are they risky? Yes. Because they play football. Josh Allen’s propensity to take hits is worrisome to the eye, but he’s been huge and taking hits his entire life. There’s something to be said for knowing how to do it, and that’s a big reason why I’ll never shy away from that prototype.

Joe Flacco | CLE (vs GB)

The Browns’ offense is built to have fantasy spike weeks. This isn’t an ultra-competitive team that poses vertical threats in the passing game and lacks efficient options on the ground.

Joe Flacco has thrown 45 passes in both games this season (the first QB to open a season with two games like that since Matthew Stafford in 2018), but he still has just two touchdowns on his 2022 ledger, and he’s fortunate to have that many.

Instead of having a second straight multi-pick game, Flacco had an off-target pass played into a Cedric Tillman TD on Sunday. The Flacco profile would have been much more valuable 10 years ago when dual-threat QBs were less prevalent and deep passing was more efficient, but here we are, in the year 2022, where this skill set is nothing more than run-of-the-mill.

That’ll be my take with the crafty veteran in a perfect matchup, something that this clearly isn’t. The Packers appear to have a Super Bowl-level defense, and giving them extra time to prepare for a simplistic offense is a recipe for disaster.

If you can get away with not counting on a single Brown this week, you improve the outlook for your weekend mental stability by at least 25%.

You can trust me, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Jordan Love | GB (at CLE)

This is when you know you’ve been playing fantasy football for a long time.

Instead of enjoying all the good that has come from Jordan Love during Green Bay’s impressive 2-0 start (multiple touchdown passes in both games with the aggression dial turned all the way up), I’m worried about when the shoe is going to drop.

Love threw for multiple scores in five straight games to open last season, but his last game with 230 passing yards came on Thanksgiving, and he managed to throw just five touchdown passes over the final four weeks of the fantasy season.

Some wounds take time to heal.

That said, this does look different. Matthew Golladay hasn’t been productive yet, but the drafting of him was a signal of aggression from this organization and has been executed through two weeks, with Love’s aDOT sitting at 12.5 yards (2023: 8.8 yards).

How the Jayden Reed injury factors into everything requires guesswork from all of us, but it does open up opportunities for their more explosive playmakers, something that could help sustain the stock of Love.

Of course, with talent like that, you run into the variance monster. The aggression side has two coins, and we saw the Browns bottle up the Bengals in Week 1.

Could this be a 30-carry Jacobs game where Love throws 23 passes and leads the Packers to a win, but fantasy managers to a loss? I certainly think that’s in play and that’s why he’s a fringe QB1 for me this week, but worry not, it won’t last long.

The Packers get the Cowboys, Bengals, and Cardinals over their next three games, weeks when I anticipate Love cracking my top-8 at the position (he also gets a birthday game a few weeks later against the Panthers).

Love is going to be more valuable to Green Bay than to fantasy managers, but if his growth patterns stick, there’s no reason he can’t finish this season as a QB1, even if this is an offense that prefers to bloody your nose on the ground.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs MIA)

If you’ve come to the Josh Allen section of this article, you’re either down bad and looking for a pick-me-up, or you just have a lot of time to kill.

You get access to the most unstoppable quarterback in our game playing a defense that Daniel Jones and Drake Maye have victimized. All signs point to you starting Week 3 with a bang, and few things are better than walking into the office on a Friday after getting 33 points from your QB.

That, of course, is no lock. He didn’t account for a single score last week against the Jets, but he does average 27 fantasy PPG for his career against the Dolphins, reaching that 33-point number on five occasions.

Could Keon Colemon get loose? Does Khalil Shakir rack up the receptions? How Allen gets to an impressive point total is up for debate, but it’s very likely that if you roster the reigning MVP, you’re loving life when your head touches the pillow on Thursday night.

Justin Fields | NYJ (at TB)

Justin Fields was put into concussion protocol after exiting Week 2’s blowout loss to the Bills late, and his status is cloudy at best.

If he’s active, he has top-10 potential in a game that could go up and down, but it’s wise to plan for a replacement and pivot should all tests come back clear before kickoff.

RELATED: Jets QB Depth Chart: Who Will Start for New York With Justin Fields Out in Week 3?

Tyrod Taylor is the next man up for the Jets, but not for you. The best rushing days are behind the 36-year-old, and with a career completion percentage under 62%, he doesn’t have many paths to success, even if you aren’t buying the Bucs as a tough matchup.

Rest up, Mr. Fields. We will be using you in a major way against the Dolphins and Cowboys in the coming weeks.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs DEN)

Justin Herbert has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight and, more importantly, has been fully empowered by his head coach.

Want to check off a play? Do it.

Want to chew up yardage with your legs? Go for it.

Want to be aggressive, understanding that your leash is unlimited? Please!

Justin Herbert has averaged a tick under 13 fantasy points in his last five games against the Broncos with just five touchdowns on 176 attempts, but that’s the past. We are all about looking forward these days, and with this system custom-built to let Herbert thrive, I’m not running away from this matchup.

I’m not running at it for DFS purposes, but he’s a QB1 for me this week, even in a seemingly tough spot.

Kyler Murray | ARI (at SF)

I’ve got Kyle Murray ranked as my QB8 this week, buying into the 70/7 club.

It’s only two weeks, but Murray is completing over 70% of his passes while averaging seven rush attempts per game, a skill set designed for this game of ours.

We saw him light up these 49ers in Week 18 last season (four touchdown passes), but his recent production against San Francisco has been more reliant on James Conner than anything.

Murray has completed 73.3% of his passes when faking the run in his past three matchups with the divisional rival, a massive step up from his 64.9% otherwise.

I’m looking forward to this game, one that I actually has sneaky shootout appeal. If the route growth from Marvin Harrison Jr. is here to stay, Murray is going to be locked into the top eight in my QB ranks every single week thanks to his ability to produce in a variety of ways.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs DET)

Lamar Jackson was special last week when the defense absolutely sold out to stop the run, something he’s proven over and over again that he can do.

He’s failed to complete 20 passes in a game this season, and that would be a red flag in most situations, but Jackson is an exception to almost every rule in the book (six of his 33 completions have resulted in touchdowns).

The fact that he’s connecting vertically with DeAndre Hopkins is a terrifying thought. This is, for my money, the best team in the sport and in a good spot to impress again under the bright lights.

Jackson is my QB1 this week, QB2 for the rest of the season.

Mac Jones | SF (vs ARI)

Brock Purdy appears to be on the wrong side of questionable, and that has Mac Jones penciled in for another start. He was good for 21.8 fantasy points in New Orleans last week, and while this matchup will be tougher to navigate, I’m confident in him as a streamer if you lost your starter.

Jones was clearly comfortable in this system last week, and that’s the first box I need checked from a backup option. In the first half, he fed five different players at least three targets, a sign that he is seeing the entire field and thoughtfully going through his reads.

We saw him thrive for fantasy purposes down the stretch of last season, and he is giving us 16.8 fantasy PPG over his past four starts. That should be viewed as something of a floor against a Cardinals defense that has allowed at least 17 points to a QB in five of their past eight (five of their past seven if you want to dismiss Spencer Rattler as a viable NFL QB in Week 1).

Arizona owns the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT since the beginning of last season, and Jones was more than happy to take those easy-button completions by way of Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings a week ago.

Jones is hovering around QB15 this week and is a must-add for those without their typical starter.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (at PHI)

I’m convinced that Matthew Stafford will be an efficient NFL quarterback until the day that I die.

The 37-year-old is averaging a cool 8.8 yards per pass through two weeks and is doing what you’d expect a crafty veteran to do: feature his elite playmakers.

Despite all of the volume he’s giving to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Stafford is QB27 through two weeks. Without access to any production on the ground, he needs almost literally to be flawless to be useful, and I don’t think that’s in the cards against the reigning Super Bowl champion.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at CAR)

It’s easy to look back to Week 18 last season, a fantasy circus that featured Michael Penix getting into a shootout with Bryce Young, a sentence none of us were ready to utter at the time.

In that game, he threw for 312 yards and two scores while adding one with his legs. I don’t think we get that level of production this week, but he’s a top 15 play for me because I don’t think Carolina can make him sweat.

Or anyone for that matter.

They rank dead last in pressure rate over the past 20 weeks (25% of opponent dropbacks, NFL average: 33.9%), and Penix picked apart the Vikings when they didn’t move him off his spot (11 completions on 14 attempts).

I thought Darnell Mooney looked healthy in his season debut last week, and that gives Penix access to four playmakers that can help carry him to a viable day.

I have him one spot ahead of Mac Jones if you’re looking for a fill-in for Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Fields, or Daniels this week.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (at NYG)

Patrick Mahomes has fallen outside of my top 12 this week, and that’s saying something given the carnage at the position.

Kansas City went three-and-out to open Week 2, and what did Andy Reid scheme up? There were passes to both Noah Gray and Braxton Smith on that possession.

This is a dynastic team in limbo at the moment. They’ve had the same identity for so long, and they still might by the time the leaves change colors, but for now, this is a situation I don’t want to impact my fantasy fate.

If you’re starting Mahomes, it’s either based purely on vibes or a thought that he can do what Dak Prescott did to this defense last week. In theory, that sounds fine, but this Kansas City offense isn’t built to function like that.

Not with the players they currently have playing extended roles, at least.

I’m not picking against Mahomes in this game, I’m just not sure that his putting up massive numbers is part of their game plan until they get something close to a full roster to support him.

Russell Wilson | NYG (vs KC)

Adam Schefter reported last Saturday that the Giants weren’t feeling any pressure to move on from Russell Wilson in favor of Jaxson Dart.

I can’t imagine that sentiment changed after the future Hall of Famer lit up the Cowboys for a career-high 450 yards through the air.

We did get some weird platooning spots, and Wilson did throw an interception in overtime that ultimately doomed the G-Men, but there is still some gas left in the tank in the right spots for the artist formerly known as Mr. Unlimited.

Not every matchup is the Cowboys, however, and with a low implied total, I’ve got no problem in ranking Wilson outside of the top 20 at the position after his historic week.

Remember, this is a weekly game. Wilson was fun last week, but not a single one of those moonballs is going to be reflected in your Week 3 boxscore. That concept seems simple, but it’s lost by many who want to chase what they missed.

You’re better than that.

Sam Darnold | SEA (vs NO)

Sam Darnold is playing within himself and weighing Jaxon Smith-Njigba down with targets, both of which are good things for Seattle, but I’m not sold on the fantasy ceiling being anything close to what it was 12 months ago.

He’s completed at least two-thirds of his passes with a 40-yard gain in both weeks, and yet, he’s QB28 in total fantasy points.

Darnold is still a liability when under pressure and has had two rushing attempts this year. He’s doing enough to elevate JSN and showed signs of reviving Cooper Kupp last week, but if this team is going to have success, it will be via the ground game.

Darnold is nothing more than a low-end QB2 for superflex leagues, even in a plus-spot.

Spencer Rattler | NO (at SEA)

Spencer Rattler had 50 opportunities in Week 1 and finished as QB21. In this era of football, I’d typically argue that any quarterback can luckbox into a top 15 performance, but I really am not sure how Rattler would pull it off.

The three touchdown passes against the 49ers last week were nice to see, but I don’t think they will sustain. He’s averaging 8.1 yards per completion this season, a rate that is going to make a pocket-oriented QB useless most weeks.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs HOU)

Maybe it’s a Florida thing that Baker Mayfield is somehow immune to?

The Dolphins are in disarray these days, and the Jaguars aren’t looking much better. Trevor Lawrence has failed to complete even 62% of his passes in both weeks this season, and with 16 rushing yards, he really only has one avenue to fantasy success.

Develop a connection with Brian Thomas Jr.

In the preseason, I wouldn’t have thought that would be a tough ask, but 14 of 19 targets to his WR1 have hit the ground this season. That rules out the deep ball, and while Lawrence was able to finish with three scores against the Bengals last weekend, those passes traveled a total of zero yards past the line of scrimmage.

Liam Coen has his work cut out for him, and I’m going to need to see multiple signs of growth before even entertaining the idea of going this direction in the deepest of leagues.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at BUF)

It’s supposed to be a beautiful evening in Upstate New York, so there’s that.

I tried.

I can’t imagine that you don’t have access to a better option this week than Tua Tagovailoa, on a short week, against one of the favorites to win the AFC.

He impressed last week against the Patriots, and I was encouraged with 71.9% of his targets going to his big three playmakers (DeVon Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle). For a player with some injury concerns, you’d be inclined to worry about a short week. But Tagovailoa has balled out in his last two such spots: 65 completions on 82 attempts with five touchdowns and no interceptions (opponents: Packers and Raiders).

That’s the good.

The bad is that we are still seeing far too many missed opportunities and zero rushing upside to balance the inconsistencies in the passing game. Heck, even the big completion to Hill last week was a stroke of luck against a defense missing their top corner.

The Bills’ defense isn’t one I actively fade, and with their offense’s ability to force tempo, I bet I end up with more Buffalo opponent exposure than most this season.

Not this week. At best, I think two of their top three skill guys come through in this spot. This is lining up for an ugly showing, and backup quarterbacks are starting this week that I’d rather roll the dice with.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (vs CIN)

We saw what was at risk from Aaron Jones Sr. taking almost a 2024 Jaylen Warren role to Jordan Mason’s Najee Harris in Week 2, so given that the former Packer is on injured reserve for at least four weeks, it saved you from yourself.

It’s human nature.

When we spend something meaningful, we take an overly optimistic view of it when asked to evaluate. Jones cost you a sixth-round pick this summer and, therefore, you were naturally more likely to look at his Week 1 usage as optimistic, citing the downfield routes as a path to rare upside.

In theory, those routes do offer something that few running backs have access to, but if not complemented by the stuff that every running back has access to, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.

Jones is a 30-year-old back with north of 1,700 touches on his NFL resume. The truth of the matter is that an injury was a real risk, and with a fading role, he may never return to my RB2 range this season.

You’re holding tight, but that’s more because you really don’t have a choice. He wasn’t involved much before the injury, and that tanked any trade value he could have had.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at SEA)

The trade window remains open.

Alvin Kamara got there with a touchdown in Week 1 and a 24% reception share in Week 2. He’s been an RB2 both weeks, and that’s fine if you played him, but this Saints offense looks as bad as advertised, and that has me running away from this investment if I can.

We are nearing 1,100 days since Kamara’s last 25-yard carry. If you, like me, believe that scoring opportunities are going to be sparse at best, you’re putting a lot of faith in this collection of below-average quarterbacks to get him the volume he needs through the air.

I think it’s more likely that Kamara finishes outside of the top 20 at the position than inside the top 10, and I’m guessing that if you sell before this game, you’ll get a pretty solid return for that profile.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (at WAS)

Ashton Jeanty has either run into the MonStars from Space Jam or his teammates are letting him down.

The data says the ladder, but if you have proof of the former and some skill extraction tool, I’m all ears.

We saw Jeanty truck a safety on Monday night, but everything has been so difficult for the rookie to open his career and this bottom-10 offensive line doesn’t offer much in the way of hope moving forward.

Highest percentage of rush yards coming after contact, Weeks 1-2

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 104.3%
• Jeanty: 103.7%
• Dylan Sampson: 97.4%
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 97.3%
• Zach Charbonnet: 96.6%

He was only on the field for one-third of Vegas’ third-down snaps against the Chargers, and that shows a lack of understanding of the prospect in my eyes.

Jeanty was used as an elite player in the pass game in 2023. That wasn’t the case in 2024 because handing him the ball was simply easier to do. But we need role expansion before we get anything close to a meaningful return on this investment.

I’m still playing Jeanty this week, in part because I think there’s a decent chance this game stays close, but I can’t deny that I’m nervous, mainly for everything surrounding Jeanty.

Austin Ekeler | WAS (vs LV)

Austin Ekeler’s season ended on Thursday night by way of a torn Achilles at Lambeau, a brutal break for a 30-year-old who was once the apple of the eye of fantasy managers.

It goes without saying that you can cut ties; there’s no reason to tie up even an IR slot in redraft leagues, as this injury would require significant missed time for any player, never mind a running back with north of 1,500 career touches on his resume.

Bill Croskey-Merrritt will get every opportunity to thrive in a two-down role. At the same time, Jeremy McNichols figures to get the first crack at an Ekeler role that is much more important to the Commanders than to fantasy managers.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (vs HOU)

There were whispers this preseason about the readiness of Bhayshul Tuten, and Adam Schefter reported Sunday that his expectation was for the rookie to be given extended run sooner rather than later.

Sure enough, he saw valuable snaps on Sunday and found the end zone on a screen pass. After scoring that touchdown, he and Travis Etienne had split 10 touches. While the starter distanced himself as the game wore on, there’s no denying that Liam Coen is interested in the immediate impact that the fourth-rounder can have.

No, he’s not a flex-worthy option right now, but he should be rostered in far more leagues than he is.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at CAR)

These teams played a crazy game in Week 18 last season. It was after your fantasy season ended, so if you don’t recall, all Bijan Robinson did was rack up 173 yards and two touchdowns in a contest best known for Bryce Young’s heroics.

Robinson is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 4.5 catches per game. I’m not saying that he’s on a Christian McCaffrey-like trajectory this season, but he was my top-ranked overall player entering the year, and I feel even better about it now.

Before the game last week, ESPN ran a Saquon Barkley interview in which he gushed over the cuts that Robinson, and no one else, can make. If you can impress a player coming off a 2,000-yard season, who am I to fight it?

Robinson is well-positioned to win the Offensive Player of the Year award and would be my top overall player if we were drafting today for the 2026 season.

Braelon Allen | NYJ (at TB)

Entering the season, we were worried that the Jets would view Braelon Allen and Breece Hall as two very similar backs, thus leading to a full-blown committee and headaches for all involved.

The good news is that they’ve made it clear, through two weeks at least, that they believe one is superior to the other.

The bad news is that, if you’re reading this section, your guy is on the wrong side of things.

Allen has just eight touches (all carries) through two weeks, and even with Fields’ status cloudy, the path to double-digit touches isn’t clear, never mind the run-stuffing ability of this Tampa Bay defense.

Allen is a fine hold at this point because he’s an injury away from being awfully interesting, but he’s going to need that injury to matter, something that wasn’t clear entering the season.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at TB)

Breece Hall came storming out of the gates in Week 1’s loss to the Steelers (145 yards on 21 touches), but running room was a little tough to come by (10 carries for 29 yards against the Bills).

Hall’s true value is going to sit somewhere in the middle of those two performances, though I do worry that we are looking closer to the latter than the former with New York a seven-point underdog.

The Fields situation looms, and if the dual-threat QB sits as expected, Hall will fall a bit in my rankings. Tyrod Taylor holds a similar skill set to Fields, but the backup is now 36 years of age and wouldn’t open up the same running lanes.

It would appear that the threat of Braelon Allen isn’t something we need to sweat right now, and with this role in hand, Hall won’t fall outside of my top 20 at the position this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. | SF (vs ARI)

Before the trade, the fantasy industry was telling us what they thought of Brian Robinson Jr. Despite having a clear path to a lead role for a top 10 offense, he was viewed as a middle-round pick with limited upside.

With the 49ers, he’s reinforced as much, turning his 18 opportunities (rushes plus targets) into just 7.6 PPR points.

So why not just trade him to the Christian McCaffrey manager and be on your way?

Nobody was excited about him in a lead role when he had it, so where would he rank if CMC were to miss time?

My guess is in the low-end RB2 range, and that’s of limited appeal to me. You know that he holds more value to the team, sweating every McCaffrey touch, so why not try to throw a dart on a Matthew Godon type that could come through on unrealized upside in his situation as it stands?

Or, even better, make a move for a buy-low player with Robinson as a tie-breaking piece to convince that CMC manager that he/she is wise to be better safe than sorry.

At the end of the day, I don’t think Robinson holds the type of contingent value that McCaffrey handcuffs of years past have.

Bucky Irving | TB (vs NYJ)

I don’t want to set the bar too high, but when I watch Bucky Irving play, I really do see 90% of Bijan Robinson, and considering that I have the Falcons star as my offensive player of the year bet, that’s saying something.

Irving glides in the open field and always seems to make a two-yard gain four yards. That may sound like peanuts, but add it up 15-20 times a game and/or around the end zone.

Buy low.

Buy low and use this stat to do so (unless they read this article, in which case they are wise to the wool you’re trying to pull over their eyes): through two weeks, 74 players had a carry gaining more than 10 yards, and Irving is not one of them (Mac Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Troy Franklin are, though!).

That’s a fun and quirky stat that is true for now. I don’t think it’ll last beyond this week, so I’d try to make a move in short order. The Jets’ matchup is tough on paper, but I believe that Irving’s abilities can transcend a tough spot.

The Bucs get the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins to end the fantasy season: you’re not going to care what you paid in Week 3 to get Irving when he’s busy winning you a championship around the holiday season.

Cam Skattebo | NYG (vs KC)

Cam Skattebo plays football the same way Russell Westbrook plays basketball: one speed at all times. That is obviously hard for defenses to deal with, but it’s also hard on the human skeleton over time.

The rookie saw three touches in the first quarter over the weekend and finished the instant classic against the Cowboys with 59 yards from scrimmage and a score. He’s tough as nails, and the Giants clearly trust him, giving us a more “when” not “if” situation for him to assume control of this backfield.

It’s never that easy.

Tyrone Tracy is just 25 years old and cleared 1,100 total yards as a rookie. This isn’t a Falcons situation where Atlanta spent huge on Bijan Robinson with the intention for him to take over Tyler Allgeier’s bellcow role. This feels more like a “we are building a committee to grow alongside our franchise QB” sort of situation.

Not ideal for fantasy managers.

Both are fluid pass catchers, and I think the “right” answer as to which one is most valuable down the stretch this season will largely depend on who the quarterback is.

Assuming neither outperforms the other by a wide margin, I suspect New York will opt for the RB with a little more NFL seasoning in Tracy when they make the inevitable shift to Jaxson Dart.

That could change in short order, but that would be my guess, and that’s why I still give Tracy the slightest of edges moving forward. This, however, is not the type of backfield that can sustain multiple RBs, so in the short term, I have no intention of playing either in a redraft setting.

Chase Brown | CIN (at MIN)

Projecting the Cincinnati offense in a post-Joe Burrow world isn’t an exact science, but there are some things we feel good about.

The pass rate over expectation is likely to dip, and the time from snap to pass is likely to decline by 10-15%.

Sign me up!

Chase Brown has the backfield all to himself, and while the implied point totals are going to be lower with Jake Browning under center, I expect their RB1 to be plenty busy.

Over his past 10 games, Brown is touching the ball 23 times per contest (4.2 receptions), an elite figure by any measure. No Burrow could mean fewer overall plays, but even if you’re (in my opinion) overly aggressive in your reduction and lop off 25% of Brown’s touches, we are still looking at 17-18 opportunities, and that’s plenty to be considered as a fine RB2 in all formats.

Add in the fact that Minnesota is the most blitz-heavy defense since the beginning of 2022 and could be looking to jump-start their new look offense with even more aggression, and it could be a high catch total for Brown that translates nicely into DFS tournaments.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs LV)

Chris Rodriguez Jr. was a healthy scratch last week in Lambeau, and while I don’t expect that to be the case as the season wears on, it speaks to how the team views him.

Following the Brian Robinson trade, there was speculation that Rodriguez, a 25-year-old who has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on his 86 attempts as a pro, could work his way into a competition with Bill Corsky-Merritt for the two-down role.

That’s pretty clearly something we don’t have to sweat right now, and that means C-Rod doesn’t need to be rostered in any format.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs ARI)

What’s understood doesn’t need to be explained.

Christian McCaffrey is on pace for 425 touches this season, and no one is thinking twice about it. He’s cleared 50 rushing and receiving yards in both contests despite not having a touch pick up more than 25 yards.

The 49ers are 2-0 despite all the injuries, and CMC is their cheat code. He’s got the highest fantasy floor when healthy of any player in professional sports, and I’m not even sure who else you’d put on that tier.

The Cardinals have good-looking defensive metrics up to this point, but sorry if I need to see more than impressive showings against the Saints and Panthers to sell me on a turnaround.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs ATL)

Chuba Hubbard entered this season with two touchdown receptions on his professional resume, a total that he has doubled in just two weeks.

Hubbard caught 43 passes in 15 games last season, a sign of skill development from the previous year (39 in 17 games) and a promising indicator, given the low win projection for the Panthers in 2022.

With 34 touches and three gains of at least 14 yards through two weeks, Hubbard has a pretty ironclad case when it comes to his weekly status. The offensive environment will come with limitations, but with an elevated floor like this, Hubbard can be a very valuable weekly asset on a successful fantasy team.

The Panthers and Falcons played a crazy game to conclude last season, and with the increased versatility shown by Hubbard over the years (five or more targets in both games this season), there’s not a game type that would scare me.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs DAL)

Without a bail-out three-yard score in the fourth quarter to cut Detroit’s lead to 24, D’Andre Swift managers would be complaining about consecutive finishes outside of the top 30 at the position.

To be honest, I’m not too worried about the value of Chicago’s lead back. He’s got a firm hold of this backfield, and he’s caught three passes in both losses: regardless of what you think of Swift’s talent, 15 carries and 3-5 targets is enough to land you in the flex conversation at the very least.

The Cowboys’ defense was vulnerable deep downfield last week against the Giants, and if they overcorrect in that regard, I think Swift is a solid bet for his standard work. Thus, a top 25 finish at the position with some upside should this offense bounce back after a rough Week 2 and keep this game tight.

David Montgomery | DET (at BAL)

David Montgomery cashed in a dive in the blowout win over the Bears, and his 11 carries picked up 57 yards, a much more satisfactory result than the 25 yards his 11 totes gained in Week 1 against the Packers.

His role in the pass game may depend on the script (four targets in the loss to open the season, but only one on Sunday), but he still appears to carry enough scoring equity to carry weekly RB2 status in most matchups.

In this one, however, he falls a tick below that and is more of a flex option for me. Since the beginning of last season, the Ravens have been the best post-contact rush defense in the league, and with their ball-control style of offense, the floor for Montgomery in this spot, if he’s held out of the end zone, is troubling.

I’m not looking to bench Detroit’s RB2 for a flier receiver, but if you feel good about 6-8 targets or 15+ touches from a similarly ranked option on your bench, I’d lean that option for this week.

De’Von Achane | MIA (at BUF)

The Dolphins went three-and-out to open up Week 2, and their playcalling was ultra creative: two De’Von Achane carries and one target.

His role is as favorable as any back in the league this side of Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor. While I trust his raw talent to pay off more often than not, you at least have to weigh the potential for a Miami implosion when looking at the long term.

I don’t like this matchup, but Achane is matchup-proof, so there’s no analysis needed on that front. By no means do you have to sell, but with him finding the end zone in each of the first two weeks, could you move off of him for Bucky Irving?

I would in a heartbeat.

What about a slightly lower running back and George Pickens or something along those lines?

Again, it’s not a must-do, but it’s worth considering.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs DET)

A team would have to slow down the Ravens as a whole for me to say that the league has found a blueprint.

The fact that Derrick Henry carried the ball 11 times for 23 yards against the Browns last week is odd (27 of those 23 yards came after contact), but it’s not as if Cleveland solved this Todd Monken system; they gave up 41 points!

Henry differs from the Tier 1 backs in that he is likely to have games like this. It happens every year.

Know why, if you weren’t a Henry manager, you are blind to these occurrences?

Because he erases all memory of them with a historic game sooner or later, Baltimore relies on Henry, and no one knows how to slow this offense.

My math degree tells me that, by the transitive property, no one knows how to stop Henry.

He’s my RB3 this week.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (vs GB)

The eight-catch performance from Week 1 feels like a long time ago now after Quinshon Judkins made his debut on Sunday in Baltimore and played the lead role in this backfield.

Sampson still got some work on the first drive, so he’s not being completely scripted out by the Browns, nor do I expect him to be, but this is a situation trending away from him, and that means you can’t possibly consider starting him in what might be the toughest matchup in football.

I’d keep Sampson on my roster as a way to have a cheap investment in what has been the most pass-heavy offense in the league through two weeks, but if you told me that you had to move on from Sampson in two weeks when byes start to become an issue, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.

Isaac Guerendo | SF (vs ARI)

Isaac Guerendo missed time in August with a shoulder injury, but he returned to practice in the middle of the month, shortly before the team traded for Brian Robinson Jr.

Guerendo didn’t see the field for a single snap in Week 1 despite the pregame concerns surrounding Christian McCaffrey, a clear indicator that he’s more of a Robinson handcuff than a McCaffrey handcuff. In fact, he’s yet to get on the field for a single offensive snap in 2025.

There are too many options with single-play upside on most waiver wires to waste an active roster spot on Guerendo right now. If McCaffrey were to go down, he’d be worthy of an add, but you don’t need to get ahead of a very specific situation.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at NYG)

I guess we can look at the glass 59.6% full in the case of Isiah Pacheco. That was his snap share last week, up from 48.3% in the season opener, a step in the right direction, but still a long way away from what it’ll take to get him back into fantasy lineups.

Andy Reid always runs a high pass rate over expectation offense, and I would too if I had Patrick Mahomes, but what I didn’t see coming was the willingness to have Mahomes move the chains himself.

We normally see #15 peak in an athletic sense when the games mean more in the winter, but as the Chiefs search for answers, he’s going that route with regularity, and it’s leaving the running backs without much work.

Pacheco doesn’t yet have a gain of more than 10 yards this season and only has 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) through two weeks.

I still think this offense functions better with Pacheco’s profile than it does with Kareem Hunt’s. Still, neither deserves to be anywhere near your lineup until Kansas City stabilizes its usage patterns.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (at LAC)

There’s nothing you can do besides play out the string.

J.K. Dobbins is the 14th highest scoring RB through two weeks despite a 49.6% snap share, and there’s nothing you can realistically do about it.

Does it feel sustainable?

Only if you overlook the health track record, and that he’s in the 10th percentile when it comes to the percentage of carries that are above average in terms of yards after contact. He’s been held to single-digit receiving yards in both games, and without two chunk runs, he’s averaging under 3.5 yards per carry.

Can you trade him?

I doubt it. Most are aware that Bo Nix is the type of athlete who can take away opportunities from his back, and that Sean Payton invested in a running back during the draft.

There is no real expectation that Dobbins is a locked-in RB2 moving forward, so you just have to ride this out for as long as you can.

I don’t love this matchup, but at least the Chargers are on a short week. Dobbins is my RB25 for Week 3 and outside of my top 30 at the position for the rest of the season.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (vs LV)

We might get to the point where you just throw out any data against the Packers.

Bill Croskey-Merritt got his hands on the ball just four times in a game where the Commanders were behind for the vast majority of their offensive snaps and forced to throw 3.5 passes for every running back handoff.

On the bright side, Croskey-Merritt has gained yardage on 13-of-14 carries during his rookie season. That’s nice to see and is something he needs to sustain if he wants to remain a viable fantasy starter.

Through two games, he has one splash carry and zero catches. A two-down role with a mobile quarterback comes with a thin production line if your name isn’t Derrick Henry, and that’s what we are looking at here.

Austin Ekeler (Achilles) is done for the season, but I don’t think his usage will simply be transferred to Croskey-Merritt. We didn’t see him featured in a meaningful way in the pass game in any of his college stops, so while the injury raises his floor, I’m not sure the per-touch ceiling moves in a major way.

If I have access to a player with more upside, I’m likely to lean that way. That said, the elevated floor for a featured back on a talented offense with an extended prep week who is favored isn’t a tough sell.

Croskey-Merritt is my RB23 for Week 3.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at BAL)

I’m still hammering out the open space rankings, but I know Jahmyr Gibbs gliding and reckless Baker Mayfield are two of my five favorite viewing experiences when they have green grass in front of them.

We saw that on Sunday from Gibbs with a 42-yard run, a boost of confidence after he totaled just 50 yards in the Week 1 loss at Lambeau. We are looking at one of the premier dual threats in the sport, and while this offense looks a bit different sans Ben Johnson, maximizing Gibbs is pretty clearly high up on the to-do list.

Jahmyr Gibbs is easily the best RB in the league pic.twitter.com/7alMlBvMLG

— ًًً (@GibbsWrld) September 14, 2025

I expect a conservative Lions game plan in this spot, and that’s more of a boost for David Montgomery than Gibbs, but that’s only a concern if you’re playing DFS Showdown.

In redraft, you’re feeling privileged to get the honor of starting #0.

James Conner | ARI (at SF)

I’m not so much worried about Trey Benson taking work away from James Conner as I am about the Cardinals just refusing to run the ball traditionally.

Despite a 2-0 record and two very favorable matchups, Arizona ranks 26th in running back rush attempts with 34. I’m comfortable in Conner’s role, but if the carry count for the backfield as a whole is going to underwhelm, there’s not much room for error.

Conner has scored in both weeks (a catch in Week 1 and a plunge in Week 2), and that’s good to see. I don’t doubt that he flirts with double-digit TDs this season if he can stay on the field, but if we are looking at under 15 carries per game, the weekly floor is concerning at best and potentially alarming.

I’m not acting on these concerns just yet, as I have Conner ranked as a top 15 RB this week, but I do think he deserves to be watched closely. The health history here is iffy (he has never played a full NFL season), and if the volume is as well, there’s more risk than reward in continuing to bank on the 30-year-old.

James Cook | BUF (vs MIA)

James Cook just can’t stop scoring touchdowns these days, and there’s no real reason to think that his RB1-level production falls off a cliff any time soon.

He’s getting the high-leverage touches (of which there are many, thanks to his quarterback’s superpowers), the pass work, and everything in between. Defenses are so terrified of what Allen can do to them that they’d happily give Cook room to run if it means that Allen isn’t carving them up down the field.

Cook owns one of the better floor/ceiling combinations at the position, and I expect to see another top 10 showing at home in this island game.

Javonte Williams | DAL (at CHI)

There’s a certain level of running that needs to be mentioned for a player like Javonte Williams, who has produced top-5 numbers at the position in consecutive weeks.

The season opener came against an Eagles team that lost Jalen Carter before a single snap, and last week came in the funkiest game of the year. I’m not writing them off, but I’m saying let’s maybe take a step back and not crown Williams just yet.

His 87.9% gain rate is a nice foundational piece to the puzzle, but even with things working out in his favor, he ranks in the 25th percentile in terms of percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards.

I remain steadfast in the belief that the Dallas offense is more likely to win through the air than on the ground, and thus, I think we are awfully close to peak value for Williams. In theory, that means trading him, but your league mates are going to be wise to your plan, and that complicates matters a bit.

What if you pulled the old carnival trick?

You know, distract your trade partner with a shiny name (maybe a Tyreek Hill or Alvin Kamara) while you price gouge them on Williams.

I’m thinking a two-for-two deal where you include a veteran with name recognition that you’re not enamored with (the two names mentioned above fit that bill for me) with Williams for a rookie who has yet to do it (TreVeyon Henderson), and some help filling your flex in an upgraded way over the veteran.

I like Henderson over Williams for the second half of this season outright, but that’s not going to be reflected in a deal like this, and then you get to upgrade a boring veteran for an upgrade.

It’s worth a shot.

Jaydon Blue | DAL (at CHI)

Jaydon Blue has been a healthy scratch for both games this year, but it realistically shouldn’t change anything. You were playing the long game when you drafted him, and there was no real world in which you were going to consider playing him during this first month with all 32 teams in play.

Lines were instantly drawn to Achane being a healthy scratch 24 months ago and owning elite upside by… well, Week 3 (233 yards and four scores against the Broncos). It’s probably a touch optimistic to think we are going to get that, but the larger point remains – you’re not wrong for drafting Blue.

At least not yet. You might be. But isn’t that what your bench is for? The idea of stashing Blue is just as strategically sound today as it was seven or 14 days ago.

Stay the course and see where this ride goes if you have the roster flexibility. If injuries are already eating away at your options, you can move on: Blue’s theoretical upside this winter won’t mean much if your team is eliminated from contention.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at NE)

How many players do you think have a 10+ yard run in an NFL game that counted (I’m not going to hold the preseason against him) since the last time that Jaylen Warren did?

As a reminder, there are 32 teams in the NFL.

If you doubled the career number of Kevin Hart movie credits, you’d be in the right range.

The number is 114 and includes names like Dane Belton, Steven Sims, and D’Ernest Johnson.

In theory, Warren is the only running back we care about in Pittsburgh, but should we? This is maybe the most conservative offense in the league, and I’m not at all confident that things open up, given the people involved in the decision-making.

I’m being too hard on Warren. He’s paid off both weeks with 10+ PPR points in the pass game, and maybe that sticks in this Aaron Rodgers system. That said, if you had told me that Kaleb Johnson wouldn’t be a factor in the slightest, I would have had far more shares of Warren.

Right now, I’m glad I don’t.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs LV)

There’s no denying that Jeremy McNichols’ role increased with the injury to Austin Ekeler, as he was the only running back to play in the fourth quarter on Thursday night with the Commanders playing catch-up against the Packers.

But how much upside is there realistically to chase?

I don’t want to speak for you, but last week didn’t color my opinion of Washington: I still think this is a solid team. If that assumption is correct, getting to double-digit touches will likely be an uphill battle.

The 29-year-old has played for six teams during his NFL career and has never reached 70 touches in a season. There will be a week or two this season when the game script works in his favor, and maybe he delivers a seven-catch effort that returns PPR value, but I’m not sold we’ll see it coming.

With this spread flirting with a full touchdown, this profiles as a Bill Croskey-Merritt game, and if that happens, McNichols is unlikely to finish inside the top 40 at the position.

Joe Mixon | HOU (at JAX)

Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has north of 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that their starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.

The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.

Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in their schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Week 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at TEN)

Jonathan Taylor has the most locked-in role in fantasy right now (100% snap share in the first half of Week 1 before that game got out of hand and 93.9% in Week 2), and that has him riding higher with the Colts being the surprise offense of the first two weeks.

This Indianapolis house of cards could come crumbling down with some regression from Daniel Jones, but I think JT is regression-proof in that regard. He’s picking up 5.5 yards per carry, has caught multiple passes in both games, and is at the peak of his powers in terms of the age curve.

There’s nothing to be worried about here, regardless of what you think the future holds for this offense. Taylor has put his name on the list of RBs that can lead the position in scoring this season, an outcome I didn’t once consider during the summer.

Jordan Mason | MIN (vs CIN)

The door is open to a role that may have already been Jordan Mason’s. Aaron Jones is likely out for at least the next month with a bulky hamstring, and it comes at the perfect time for Mason truthers:

“vs Bengals”.

Since the beginning of last season, 72.8% of RB rush yards against Cincinnati have come after first contact (league average: 69.2%).

That may seem like a slight edge, but given how Mason runs, that sort of flaw could undo a defense that struggles to tackle, and that’s especially true if you think the Jake Browning version of that offense isn’t going to put the pressure on Minnesota’s offense to abandon the run.

Mason may not be the most versatile option, and that’s going to cap his ceiling, but he has a great chance to finish top 10 for the week in total carries, and that has him firmly in the middle of my RB2 tier, even in PPR formats.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at CLE)

From elusive rating to versatility, Josh Jacobs’ profile through two weeks doesn’t look as impressive as it did a year ago, but the raw volume (42 carries) is pretty hard to ignore, and the 10-game scoring streak isn’t an accident.

As long as you think Green Bay is as good as they’ve looked through two weeks, Jacobs is a high-floor RB1. He ran for 15 touchdowns a season ago, and if Jordan Love is going to continue threatening defenses down the field (aDOT up 42% from 2024), that might be on the low end of expectations.

Could the Jayden Reed (collarbone) injury open up two to three targets for Jacobs per game over the next two months? He doesn’t need it to return value on your investment, but it gives him a path to top-5 production moving forward.

Kaleb Johnson | PIT (at NE)

It’s been a fun ride.

That’s a lie. This Johnson evaluation process hasn’t been brutal. Initially, we assumed that he’d be Najee Harris 2.0 and were excited. We assumed that Warren would be Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, the old couch in the corner of the offense that you can count on, but doesn’t really impact your aesthetic.

Everything lined up cleanly until negative reports about the rookie surfaced in early August.

And mid-August.

By late August, we had come full circle: we, as an industry, went from expecting big things to wondering if he’d be used at all.

It was a ride, and while I’m often patient with rookies, the butchered kickoff last week removes any hope of a role expansion.

You can move on. He might well have a moment this season. I hope he does. This has to be worse for him than for us. But the number of hurdles he has to overcome to get a chance is too many for us to ignore.

This is Warren’s backfield, and I’m not even sure he’ll be a weekly lock.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at NYG)

Pacheco’s value seems to bounce all over the place, but Hunt is what he is.

• Week 1: 39.7% snap share, seven touches
• Week 2: 38.6% snap share, nine touches

That’s not enough to be of value to us in the best of circumstances, let alone for a team that has scored just 38 points through two weeks.

Pacheco isn’t running well right now, but as long as he’s active, Hunt is completely off the flex/DFS radar. He’s a middle-of-the-road handcuff option, holding value because of his prowess in the passing game and the play-calling tendencies during the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs NO)

You’ll want to venture over to the Zach Chabonnet portion of the program for the full-blown analogy, but this is a committee situation that is going to mean wild swings like what we’ve seen through two weeks for Kenneth Walker III.

In Week 1 against the 49ers, half of his carries failed to gain yardage, the worst mark for the week among qualifiers (for reference, the average RB that week posted a 23.3% failure rate).

In Week 2, he got into space, posted the highest chunk play rate of his career, and finished with more carries than Charbonnet had rushing yards.

Week 1 snaps

• Charbonnet: 29 (10 routes, 0 targets)
• Walker: 20 (9 routes, 3 targets)

Week 2 snaps

• Charbonnet: 35 (12 routes, 0 targets)
• Walker: 23 (6 routes, 1 target)

His role is clear, and the skill set is something we’ve known him to have. In the past, however, he’s been allowed to work through his consistency issues with volume.

That’s not lining up to be the case in 2022, which puts us in a position to make bold claims about him every week. With him running well last week, I think he gets the first chance to exploit this Saints defense. The first chance to do damage when favored is all we can ask for, and that’s why I have him ranked as the top back in Seattle as my RB18 for Week 3.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at PHI)

I’m sorry, but you’re not going to be able to sell me on Kyren Williams as a profitable pick this season, given what he costs.

Blake Corum scored on a late drive last week with the game in hand, but that’s not why I’ve soured on Williams.

Williams is the reason I’ve soured on Williams.

Week 12 was the last time he had a 20-yard carry, and with just 13 targets earned over his past nine games, there just aren’t that many paths to fantasy glory.

We saw the Rams load up Davante Adams with a career-high five end-zone targets last week, and that was always the concern: he’s one of this generation’s best at converting short passes into scores, the exact area that Williams has to excel to live up to expectations.

The Rams opened with a sub-21 implied point total, and if scores are going to be hard to come by, another 8-12 PPR point game seems likely.

It’ll be tough to sell after a down week, but Williams has built up enough equity to recoup some value with one strong performance. When that happens, I’ll move him to the highest bidder and cut my losses.

Miles Sanders | DAL (at CHI)

Miles Sanders has multiple red zone touches and has been on the field for over 77% of Dallas’ offensive snaps in both games this season.

He looked good on the big run in Week 1, but he fumbled later on that drive. He cashed in the short carry against the Giants on Sunday, but his seven touches netted just 19 yards.

That’s the yin-and-yang that takes place with Sanders. One step forward, one step back.

If he were getting bellcow levels of work, he could get away with that at some level, but he’s not. Javonte Williams has done nothing to cede touches, but at the same time, Jaydon Blue has yet to be on a gameday roster.

The Cowboys seem to want to function with a lead back, and that’s actually good news for those holding Sanders. He’s never going to project for enough work with a healthy Williams to tempt you, but should he move to the top of this depth chart, we are looking at a low-end RB2.

He’s not exciting, but he is a good piece to hold for depth purposes.

Najee Harris | LAC (vs DEN)

Najee Harris put a real dent into Omarion Hampton’s role on Monday night, almost as if he was recovering from a serious injury when the season kicked off, and is now trending towards full health.

Imagine that.

Harris isn’t fun, but he’s capable, and if this offense is going to truly transition to an aerial-oriented one, maybe that’s all they need.

Los Angeles ranking 30th in running back yards gained before contact is a real flaw, and if that doesn’t get ironed out, our debates about who should be RB1 in this offense won’t matter.

Harris cleared 1,000 rushing yards during all four seasons in Pittsburgh, not because he was some Bijan Robinson-level talent, but because he did what was asked, and that kept him on the field.

He’s going to continue to do that, and that means he’ll have a role unless Hampton’s raw abilities flash and demand more usage.

Nick Chubb | HOU (at JAX)

The final stat line for Nick Chubb looks good because of the late 25-yard touchdown, but it was a slog for the most part (11 carries for 18 yards before the score).

Christian Kirk is expected to return this weekend, which may help the passing game get going a bit. However, until that happens, I’m not sure how you can start Chubb with any sort of confidence.

Through two weeks, he’s the second-worst post-contact back in the league, and when you’re playing behind a bottom-10 offensive line, that seems like an issue.

Woody Marks looked spry on his four touches, and while I don’t think he’s a real threat to make this a committee situation, any change in touch distribution layers in more risk to a Chubb profile that I’d already rather avoid.

I see Chubb in a similar way as I see Pacheco right now in that both are lead backs for their respective teams that I’d much prefer to fade than to roll the dice on.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (at BUF)

Miami was much more competitive on Sunday than they were in the opener against the Colts, and thus, they relied on De’Von Achane even more. Ollie Gordon II received plenty of hype late in the draft process this summer, with the thought being that Achane wasn’t physically built for a Christian McCaffrey-esque role, but that seems to have been misguided intel.

Seriously misguided.

Achane’s usage is as impressive through two weeks as anyone in the league, and Gordon’s snap share cratered to 11.5% as a result in Week 2.

I don’t have a problem with rostering the bulldozing rookie, but you’re looking at contingent value (ala Ray Davis behind James Cook or Brian Robinson behind McCaffrey) and nothing else.

Omarion Hampton | LAC (vs DEN)

Through two weeks, Hampton is RB45 and has accumulated just 51.1% of his expected points. The Chargers rank third in dropback rate this season when the game is within one score, a drastic change from their 15th ranking a season ago and a potential cap on how much ground work their star rookie RB has access to.

We thought Hampton would be the lead dog in a run-centric offense, but instead, Najee Harris is taking food off his plate, and this is now a wide-open offense.

My short-term optimism was fading a bit, and then the rookie put the ball on the ground in the fourth quarter on Monday night with the Bolts trying to run out the clock.

It ended up meaning nothing in terms of the game, but for an old-school coach like Jim Harbaugh, I can’t help but think that the memory lasts.

This is a tough matchup, and there is role risk to consider. I still have Hampton ranked as the lead back in Los Angeles, but he’s more of a fantasy flex than anything else this week, a pretty significant fall from where his stock stood a month ago.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs GB)

Last week, Jerome Ford essentially doubled Quinshon Judkins’ snaps and tripled his routes, but those numbers became out of line given the game state, with the Ravens dominating for much of the afternoon.

The Browns opened up with a pair of pass plays before their first handoff, but that first designed run was Judkins’, and I expect him to be the lead in this low-volume backfield moving forward.

Not only did he get the first shot at ground production, he got six of the first nine in his NFL debut. I was surprised at just how heavily they leaned on him, and while it didn’t matter in a massive way (the 31-yard run was nice), it was encouraging for his stock moving forward.

Judkins is the only back in Cleveland I’m rostering these days. He shouldn’t be trusted in any format against a Packers defense that is on a mission and rested. Still, I expect him to be a viable flex option on multiple occasions before Cleveland goes on bye in Week 9.

Rachaad White | TB (vs NYJ)

I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but have we ever seen Rachaad White run as hard as he did on Monday night in Houston?

He carried 10 times for 65 yards, and every inch was hard-fought. The knock on White up to this point in his career has been his willingness to do the dirty work, and while he’s no real threat to usurp Bucky Irving, this performance very much forced me to raise him in the handcuff running back rankings.

I don’t see this offense sustaining two viable running backs on any sort of consistent basis, so I’d caution against reacting too much to this impressive showing. White is a nice piece to have rostered as cheap exposure to an explosive offense, with the thought that should an injury occur, you’ll have yourself a top 20 player at the position.

The Bucs have as favorable a schedule during the fantasy playoffs as anyone, and that fact alone makes White roster depth worth acquiring in future weeks (keep an eye on the roster with him and pounce should they get in a desperate spot health/record-wise).

Ray Davis | BUF (vs MIA)

Ray Davis more than doubled his snap count in Week 2 (19) from Week 1 (eight), thanks to a wonky game script and a reconstruction of Josh Allen’s face at one point.

With James Cook running hard (5.2 YPC this season, not to mention a 100% catch rate), there just isn’t a reason to give Davis a chance. I think he’s up there in the backup running back power rankings, but his path to standalone value isn’t there as long as Cook is active.

He’s a strategic hold. I always save a spot on my bench for a player who has only contingent value, and if I hit big, I hit big. If not, no real harm. Davis is my most common player in that spot this season, and I’ll continue to hold as long as this Bills offense remains elite.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs PIT)

Before Sunday, that was the last time Rhamondre Stevenson had a 20-20 game, a contest with both a 20-yard run and a 20-yard reception.

The 27-year-old is running like he has a high-pedigree prospect chasing him and looks good in doing so.

Thus far.

TreVeyon Henderson has shown glimpses of his upside, and I expect the Patriots to seize that hope in time, but not until Stevenson gives them a reason to. The veteran is averaging under four yards per carry over the past 2+ seasons, and while he is checking the right boxes now, I’m not giving him much of a chance to hold off Henderson for another three and a half months.

If I could move Stevenson for a Croskey-Merritt middling RB with safe volume moving forward, I think I would make that deal.

RJ Harvey | DEN (at LAC)

We saw J.K. Dobbins light the world on fire last September before wearing down to some degree, and I still believe that’s the most likely outcome in Denver this season.

The exact “when” is impossible to predict, but I don’t think you’re playing the game right if you’re fretting over limited usage (13 touches) at this point in the season. Harvey was brought in to be Mr. Right, not Mr. Right now, and I think that plan remains in place.

The Broncos’ offense hasn’t exactly been clicking thus far, and a shift in backfield responsibilities could help jump-start them. They had a good first half in Indy last week, but for 75% of the two weeks, they’ve largely underperformed.

Harvey was out-snapped 25-17 by Dobbins on Sunday (Week 1: 37-22) and has edged out the oft-injured veteran in carries in both games. This should still be his show when you need it most, and the weather begins to turn.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs LAR)

Saquon Barkley doesn’t yet have a touchdown, but gaining more than 16 yards is a surprise; with a rush TD in both games and 46 touches, there’s nothing to worry about here.

The Eagles’ offense runs through their All-Pro RB, and their funneling seven targets to him through two weeks is a step in the right direction (2.7 targets per game last season).

Eagles vs Chiefs: CHIEFS KINGDOM SUPER BOWL REVENGE GAME EDITION as heard on Chiefs radio

🧵

1. SAQUON BARKLEY TOUCHDOWN! pic.twitter.com/7T5wrUJDsZ

— Nick Piccone (@_piccone) September 15, 2025

The big runs will come, that much we know. I’m happy that he’s been a top-12 RB in both weeks without the spike plays, solidifying his place in the top tier at the position for the remainder of the season.

Tank Bigsby | PHI (vs LAR)

Tank Bigsby was active for the Super Bowl rematch on Sunday because Will Shipley wasn’t, but “active” for him just meant that he didn’t have to pay for a really good seat to the most anticipated game of the week.

Week 2 offensive snaps

• Saquon Barkley: 49 (13 routes run)
• AJ Dillon: 9 (2 routes run)
• Bigsby: 0

You drafted Bigsby because you thought he had the inside track for the lead role in Jacksonville. Don’t be ashamed, I did the same thing. But that’s obviously no longer in the cards, and I’m not even sure he’s the proper handcuff to Barkley.

There are about a dozen handcuff running backs who project for a fantasy viable role should the man ahead of them get dinged up, and Bigsby isn’t on that list.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs IND)

Three running backs have played more snaps than Tony Pollard through two weeks.

30 running backs have scored more PPR points than Tony Pollard through two weeks.

He’s very good at falling forward (89.5% gain rate, third highest among the volume backs), but that’s about it. The hope was that he’d be efficient enough on the ground to make life easier on Cam Ward, but that’s not happening.

Opponents are worried about a breakaway run (38 carries and 10 yards is as far as a Pollard carry has gone this year), and that’s made navigating the line of scrimmage difficult.

He’s getting the work and really putting our “volume is king” narrative to the test. Pollard had success in this spot a season ago (128 yards on 25 carries along with seven targets across those two contests), but that seems like a ceiling outcome.

He’s a flex play that you pencil in and immediately try to talk yourself out of. On a range of outcomes basis, he’s a better play than most dart-throw receivers, but if you’re an underdog, it wouldn’t take much arm-twisting to get me to tell you to fire up Cooper Kupp or Cedric Tillman types instead.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs HOU)

On Sunday, Travis Etienne Jr. became the fifth running back over the past eight seasons to break off a 30+ yard run in each of the first two weeks of the season, continuing his impressive start to dominating a backfield that was viewed as a mess less than a month ago (the others: J.K. Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and D’Andre Swift).

He turned a red zone screen pass into a touchdown, something Bhaysal Tuten also did, a nod to just how impressive this offensive line play has been through two weeks.

The Tuten factor is certainly something to watch, but the lead role is Etienne’s to lose, and this is set up for him to keep it. Through these two weeks, he’s RB9 in total points and leads all featured backs in percentage of carries above league average in terms of yards gained before contact (70%).

Etienne was a fantasy factor earlier in his career, and with this bellcow role, it’s hard to consider him anything besides a lineup lock in all formats.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs PIT)

TreVeon Henderson has finished at least 20 snaps behind Rhamondre Stevenson in both games this year and has trailed him in routes run, solidifying the idea that he’s not really all that close to picking up enough of a role to be in our starting lineups.

We drafted the rookie with confidence this summer because we assumed he’d control the passing work and weasel his way into more and more of the traditional RB work after showcasing what he could do in space.

That was a good thought, but things are working in the opposite direction to such a degree that Mike Vrabel told us that Stevenson’s 55-yard catch via a wheel route on Sunday was a play from the preseason that they had designed for Henderson to execute.

That’s a problem, and that indicates that we are multiple weeks away from Henderson being even worthy of a look in most leagues. Stevenson has caught seven of eight targets this season and had a 21-yard rush against the Dolphins last week: we had hoped that the plus-matchup would be a gateway to the Henderson breakout, but it instead buried him a bit.

Don’t overreact.

Henderson is still the dynamic athlete he was when you drafted him, and I’d still bet on him being the more valuable asset when it matters most for us. I thought we would have that decided by Halloween, but Thanksgiving might be the new timeline.

Stay the course and keep him. For Week 3 and until otherwise noted, however, look elsewhere for a steady producer in your flex.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs IND)

Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here. What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Tony Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.

I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.

If you have room on your bench/IR, stashing Spears is the play, understanding that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t be. Tony Pollard is handling a ton of work (38 rushes through two weeks) and not showing much upside (long run: 10 yards).

Spears offers cheap exposure to the Cam Ward experience that you can ditch at a moment’s notice if the roster space becomes more valuable and is used differently.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at CAR)

The Vikings had no answer for Atlanta’s run game, and that was why Tyler Allgeier gave your bench 15 PPR points.

That’s going to happen a handful of times per season, especially if this Falcons defense is better than we thought, and it could well be the case on Sunday in Carolina.

But at what cost?

If the Panthers keep this game close and it’s the Bijan Robinson show, we are at risk of a sub-three-point day from Allgeier, similar to Week 1 against the Buccaneers. If the Panthers can’t stop the ground attack, but Allgeier isn’t fortunate enough to get a goal-line carry, reaching double figures is going to be a stretch.

If this game were to be played in a month, flexing Allgeier because you have a handful of players out of action would pass the sniff test, but that’s not the case this week, and I encourage you not to overthink it.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs KC)

The casualty of a 77-point overtime thriller is going to be the run game more often than not, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. only recorded five carries on Sunday in Dallas as a result.

I’m encouraged by the fact that he’s seen five targets in both games this season, especially heading into a matchup with a winless Chiefs team that could have New York in another pass-centric script.

That said, 15 carries for 39 yards isn’t going to hold off Cam Skattebo for very long.

Tracy is five spots higher than his rookie “backup” for me in Week 3, a brutal matchup that I’m actively looking to avoid if possible (flex receivers I’d play over him include Matthew Gollayne and Darnell Mooney).

Woody Marks | HOU (at JAX)

Wood Marks nearly doubled his snap count from Week 1 (seven) to Week 2 (13) and showcased a little bit of pizzazz that the Houston backfield has been lacking.

On Monday night, he carried three times for 14 yards against the Bucs while adding a 37-yard gain on his lone target.

I don’t think there’s anything actionable to do in more situations today, but if you have a deep roster, the rookie is worth a look as a bet against Nick Chubb.

Of course, even if you win that bet, you have a dreadful offensive line to worry about, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. Keep an eye on Marks in standard leagues; there’s no need to pounce just yet in most situations.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs NO)

This is a complicated backfield, and if you’ve read my writing for any length of time, that means a complicated analogy is coming.

Zach Charbonnet is boyfriend material that you can bring home to dad and not worry about the reaction. He’s going to say the right things, compliment the cooking, and lose multiple yards on only 4.4% of his carries (since joining forces with Walker in 2023).

Is he “the one”? Probably not. His interests don’t align in the same way, his family lives 3.5 hours away, and he picks up 15+ yards on only 3.7% of attempts.

Walker is marriage material. We all want our partner to have a bullet-proof profile, but that doesn’t exist. Walker is going to show up late to your parents’ house, make a stray political comment, and lose multiple yards 7.1% of the time.

But marriage is a process (and no, I have no idea when I transitioned into an old man, but the transformation is underway, if not in full swing). You’re signing up for a lifetime with this person and are thus willing to overlook the flaws because of how much you value the good times.

So you tell Walker a time that is different from the actual meeting time. You head off specific conversations before they venture into dangerous waters, all because you want his humor on full display. If you can mute his flaws long enough for everyone else in the room to see that he gains 15+ yards on 4.8% of his attempts and has seen his targets per route rate increase every year you’ve known him, they too will fall in love.

So that’s the question: do you want a boyfriend to prove to your parents you can sustain a relationship and pick a viable partner? Or have you built up enough equity with them that you can roll the dice with the motorcycle-riding, leather-jacket-wearing heart throb?

I can’t answer that question for you. What I can tell you is that Charbonnet was one of two RBs (minimum of 10 carries) to gain at least five yards on half of his carries, and that the Saints are the third-worst pre-contact defense in the league since the beginning of last season.

He’s going to show up on time and turn 13 carries into 63 yards. As a favorite, he carries more scoring equity than usual, though his lack of involvement in the pass game is always going to make expecting a touchdown something I’m not willing to do.

That was an ultra-efficient way for me to say that Charbonnet is my RB29 this week, a safe flex that you can build a winner around, but probably not a life-changing DFS lineup.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs LAR)

I’m not sure if we are encouraged by the fact that A.J. Brown earned eight targets last week in Kansas City or disappointed that improved usage got us just 7.7 PPR points.

Regardless of how you feel about Week 2, I feel better about staying the course on Brown than I do other struggling stars like Brian Thomas Jr. or Nico Collins. In those other two situations, the offense is in flux, there are line concerns, and quarterback question marks.

None of that is really true in Philadelphia.

Brown’s 35 yards on 57 routes is obviously less than ideal, but he did have a handful of dud games last season, too; they just didn’t come back-to-back.

I’m not here to tell you that Brown will produce with Nacua levels of consistency, but I still think him finishing the season with a top 20 stat line at the position is very possible, even after giving most of the field a two-week head start.

Adam Thielen | MIN (vs CIN)

If you want to build an old guy narrative, be my guest. There’s a decent chance that the QB play for the Vikings is better this week than the previous two with Carson Wentz stepping in for J.J. Vigorously, but even if that pans out, I don’t see Adam Thielen (four targets on 43 routes this season) being the big winner.

Jordan Addison’s suspension will be paid in full at the conclusion of this weekend, and once we get confirmation that the third-year WR is back at practice, you’re free to move on from the place-holding Thielen.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at BAL)

The 2024 Lions weren’t shy about embarrassing you, and it’s good to see that the gas-down mindset didn’t leave town with Ben Johnson.

Detroit beat Chicago by 31 points over the weekend in a game that wasn’t even that close. Amon-Ra St. Brown was having a strong afternoon at the office before adding two short fourth-quarter scores, but none of us with him rostered are complaining about the cherry on top.

Amon-Ra St Brown gets his 3rd Touchdown!!

pic.twitter.com/jlwlDuLbGJ

— SportsCastProductions (@SportsCastProd) September 14, 2025

St. Brown picked up 34 yards on a crosser for the first play of the game and reached triple digits in receiving yardage before halftime. The argument could certainly be made that St. Brown’s floor/ceiling profile is as strong as any WR in the game, and while this is a tough matchup being played outdoors, I don’t see how you rank Detroit’s WR1 as anything but a Tier 1 option at the position.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (vs ARI)

The 49ers are hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?

I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel!

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs HOU)

We aren’t far away from full-blown panic, and with a less-than-favorable stretch extended into the Week 9 bye, you might have to carve out some time this time next week to digest what will be a true deep dive on this situation.

Thomas career splits by starting QB

• Mac Jones: 19.3 PPG, 68.6% catch rate, 10.1-yard aDOT
• Trevor Lawrence: 13.9 PPG, 61.9% catch rate, 14.0-yard aDOT

He had a bad drop in the fourth quarter last week in the collapse against the Bengals and has managed to pull down just five of 19 targets.

Five of 19.

Since 2000, 318 times a player has earned 19+ targets in the first two weeks of a season, and this is the first in which that player didn’t catch at least six of them. In fact, the only other instances where the player in question didn’t reach eight receptions were Santonio Holmes for the Jets in 2012 and Kenbrell Thompkins for the Patriots in 2013.

Thomas did show well for himself in this matchup a year ago, and that’s all I have to hang my hat on with him at this point. He had a short touchdown in addition to a 30-yard catch in both games against the Texans in 2021, and right now, I’d happily take either or.

I’m starting him because I’m stubborn with my priors here. If you told me you were playing Jakobi Meyers over Thomas this week, I wouldn’t blame you even a little bit.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs IND)

I’ve been as encouraged as anyone with the glimpses of promises shown by Cam Ward through two career starts (his first career touchdown pass will be on highlight tapes for the next 50 years), but fantasy and reality are two different things.

Do I think the Titans have their guy to build around?

I think so, yes.

Do I trust him to support a player in my fantasy lineup?

Nope.

He’s completed just 50.8% of his passes thus far, and while he’s played two tough opponents (Broncos and Rams), we have no visual proof that he’s ready to put it all together for 60 minutes.

Calvin Ridley is the top receiver in this offense without much question and had a pair of 20-yard grabs in the first half against Los Angeles, but his production stalled, and I think we are destined to see a lot of that this season.

The efficiency is never going to project well, and if Elic Ayomane truly becomes a threat, we begin to split a small pie into pieces, and that’s good for no one.

I’m on the direction of the Titans, and I actually enjoy watching them without being personally invested in their immediate success in any way.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs GB)

Cedric Tillman is moving up my ranks on a weekly basis, but even his positive vibes can’t get him into my top 30 at the position against a rolling Packers defense that has had an extra few days of prep.

Some will be fearful that Tillman’s aDOT is down 22.8% from last season, but I view that as a floor elevator. Given that I’m comfortable with the upside, I think this new role is a net positive.

Sunday’s touchdown was the result of the fantasy gods smiling down on us, and while that’s not sustainable, the high-end volume seems to be here to stay unless the Browns can figure out how to run the ball (3.6 yards per carry).

Tillman has scored over 16 PPR points in four of his past six games when playing at least three-quarters of the snaps, and I don’t see his snap share dipping below that any time soon.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at CHI)

CeeDee Lamb is my WR1 for the rest of the season, and he might be in a tier of his own.

I’m not sold that Dallas will have long-term success running the ball, and the NFL as a whole has yet to prove they have anything close to a solution for Lamb.

In both weeks this season, he’s racked up a 30-yard reception among his 7+ catches, and those games came against divisional opponents that see him twice a year, thus giving them a theoretical edge in scheming.

I’m bullish on George Pickens the rest of the way, and even I don’t see him cutting into what their WR1 does. For the season, Lamb has three more targets than any other Cowboy WR has and has been responsible for 40.4% of the team’s receiving yards.

It’s early, but teams that opened their draft with Lamb in the first round are positioned well to turn a profit this season.

Chris Godwin | TB (vs NYJ)

The Bucs activated Chris Godwin off the PUP list on August 21 (Week 7, fractured ankle), but it wasn’t until last Thursday that he returned to practice. The middle of October remains the current estimation for his return to action, but this is a situation that should be monitored weekly, if not daily.

This, of course, was baked into the draft day price tag on the 29-year-old. Unless something changes drastically, this will be the sixth time in seven years that Godwin has missed multiple games. But there is hope that the cautious rehab approach will result in him peaking at the right time for both the Bucs and his loyal fantasy managers.

Tampa Bay has a well-positioned Week 9 bye, which could allow Godwin to test his body to its limits in the second month of the season, knowing that an off week isn’t too far off.

In any event, you drafted him with the hope that he’d be a 1,000-yard pace player for a seventh straight season with consistent volume for you when he hits the field, and we have no real reason to think he won’t be.

His lack of touchdowns was a concern heading into last season, but five of his 50 catches in 2021 resulted in scores, giving us hope that we are looking at a WR2 down the stretch. The Bucs close the season with about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, giving him an even better chance to impact your fantasy season massively, even if he’s not doing that in the first month.

• Week 13 vs. Cardinals
• Week 14 vs. Saints
• Week 15 vs. Falcons
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins
• Week 18 vs. Panthers

Chris Olave | NO (at SEA)

I’m a Chris Olave fan, and I continue to believe the talent is there to be a difference-maker at this level, but I’m done standing in the way of the limitations of this offense.

Olave has earned double-digit targets in both contests, and yet, his next 15-yard grab will be his first of the season. He’s Garrett Wilson, his OSU teammate, who was drafted one pick after in 2022, with more volume and more volatility under center. But the overall profile is the same: a strong talent in a crippling situation.

Odd situations like this demand an unusual statistical chart, so let’s create one. Here are all the occurrences since 2000 when a receiver caught at least 13 passes through the first two weeks of the season and failed to reach 110 receiving yards in the process:

• Jarvis Landry (2017, just one game played): 78 yards
• Wes Welker (2010): 102
• Miles Austin (2013): 103
• Olave (2022): 108

Olave’s average depth of target is more than that of the other three names combined, and that further highlights how brutal a situation this is.

You’re not cutting Olave, but I’d certainly rather gamble on the quarterback situations in Tennessee for Calvin Ridley, San Francisco for both of their primary options, or any of the pieces in Buffalo that feel shaky.

This is a game of talent, opportunity, and efficiency. In a perfect world, when two of those boxes are checked, you can survive, but that’s not the case in New Orleans these days.

Christian Kirk | HOU (at JAX)

A strained hamstring has resulted in Christian Kirk missing the first two weeks of this season, and the team has expressed a desire to be cautious with a receiver who missed nine games last season. Nico Collins was on the shelf for over a month with a similar diagnosis last season, and that is likely to serve as a guiding light this time around (Houston has their bye in Week 6).

That shouldn’t significantly impact your fantasy roster. Kirk wasn’t drafted as a starter in most formats, and with bye weeks not a thing in September, the odds were slim that you were going to start him in the short term, even if at full strength.

If you have the luxury of an IR slot or deep benches, I’m still moderately bullish on Kirk being able to carve out a niche in an offense that I expect to prioritize the pass. But I understand that not everyone is in a league structured like that, and the fact of the matter is that Kirk is likely to be dead weight this month.

The “active but limited” designation is always in play with injuries like this, and that creates a headache that is greater than the potential reward. If one of these rookie receivers establishes himself, Kirk’s ceiling lowers in a significant way, so that’s how I’m treating this situation if I don’t have an IR spot available.

Are you bullish on either Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins? If so, cut ties with Kirk and look for upside elsewhere. Until that’s the case, I’d sit tight.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs NO)

Baby steps, but we saw some juice in the veteran legs of Cooper Kupp last week. Not only did he catch seven passes against the (vulnerable?) Steelers, but he earned a look downfield and was thrown to on 32.1% of his routes.

Not vintage Kupp, but not the semi-retired version we saw to wrap last season and in Week 1 this year (15 yards on two catches).

This is a pretty straightforward situation: keep Kupp on your bench and hope. The Seahawks could use a reliable WR2 next to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kupp will be given every opportunity to earn that role.

Should he run away from Tory Horton for that role, we can have the flex discussion in favorable matchups as fantasy managers navigate byes and injuries (a Week 9 Sunday nighter in Washington with Seattle fresh off their bye could be a spot).

I’m encouraged, but watching from a distance for now. Even in what is clearly a good spot, Kupp sits outside the flex discussion, even in deeper leagues, for me.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at LAC)

I think we’ve got a problem brewing in Denver.

Not for the Broncos, but for fantasy managers.

Last season, it was all Courtland Sutton, all the time. For better or worse, we pretty much knew where Bo Nix was going with the ball, and it worked. Sutton thrived in a season where he posted a 29.8% third-down target share and had enough volume to fall into successful games, even on days where the per-target production lagged.

That’s not the case anymore.

Marvin Mims hasn’t yet taken the step forward that we had hoped, and Evan Engram is hobbling around, and yet, Sutton caught one of four targets for six yards in the disappointing loss to the Colts over the weekend.

That’s not good.

The third-down stuff I like to look at, not because fantasy leagues reward more points for those looks, but because they speak to the mindset of the QB and playcaller.

Who can we trust when we need to move the sticks?

Sutton leads the way with four targets, but Tyler Badie, Mims, and Troy Franklin all have three. His 22.2% share is obviously a big step back, and I think that’s at risk of getting worse with a healthy Engram and any development of the rookie skill guys that Sean Payton spent the summer gushing over.

We aren’t in full-blown panic mode, but in a tough spot. Sutton ranks as more of a middling flex for me this week with an arrow that’s firmly pointing in the wrong direction.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs KC)

Darius Slayton had a 52-yard catch last week, but in a game where Russell Wilson was handing out targets like candy, I’m more concerned by the low usage than impressed by his ability to do the one thing we know he can do.

Three targets in a game where Wilson throws 41 passes is a bad sign, and if he didn’t sniff lineup viability in a game where Wilson produced maybe one of the top-10 stat lines of the season at the position, when is going to be the right time to play Slayton?

This just isn’t the type of player I have many shares of. My bench will have one boom/bust profile, but it’s almost always attached to an offense I trust more than I currently trust the Giants (Alec Pierce at this point checks that box, and Darnell Mooney at a higher level of this profile).

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at CAR)

Darnell Mooney from taking the field in Week 1, but after a few limited practice sessions ahead of Week 2, he was left off the final injury report altogether, giving managers hope that maybe he can work himself into viable flex value as fall creeps up and bye weeks become an issue.

Two catches for 20 yards last week may not move the needle for you, and it shouldn’t. Last week was a low-volume game, and if you took the cautious approach with Mooney, you were rewarded.

That said, he was on the field for 85.7% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps and earned a pair of off-target end zone looks.

Uncontested end zone looks are kind of like getting paid in compliments: they feel good, but don’t help the bottom line.

Mooney is a player I think can work his way into the flex conversation with time, but he’s not there yet for me. Over his last three games against the Panthers, his 14 targets have netted just 88 scoreless yards, and this very much profiles as a game where their big stars do all of the heavy lifting.

Davante Adams | LAR (at PHI)

With 21 targets, the Rams are trying to make Davante Adams (two-year, $44,000,000 contract) happen.

Matthew Stafford funneled seven of his first 13 targets toward the veteran and got him not one, not two, not three, not four, but five end zone targets, the last of which finally paid off in fantasy points.

The downward-pointing efficiency metrics show signs of Father Time looming, but if the usage is going to be anything close to what we saw, Adams is going to be a staple in lineups. He’s on the back end of my WR2 tier this weekend because of a tough matchup, but the downgrade isn’t nearly enough to move him to my bench.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs DET)

We love to see a name from yesteryear produce, and maybe DeAndre Hopkins has enough gas left in the tank to make a real impact on a Super Bowl run for the Ravens, but I’d be surprised if he continues to matter in our game the way he has through two weeks.

This season, D-Hop has scored in both games, but he’s also been on the field for just 25.2% of the offensive snaps in this run-centric offense. The limited usage he does get is with a direct purpose (his non-touchdown catch last week was initially ruled a score but overturned via replay). But he’s basically the receiver version of a touchdown vulture and you’re not considering that profile for your flex unless you’re awfully desperate.

I’m letting my leaguemates chase the name value here.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (vs LV)

One.

That’s the number of players who have 7+ catches and a touchdown in each of the first two weeks this season. Not a bad start for a player we feared was in danger of aging quickly.

Samuel’s usage may not be the same as it was in San Francisco, but his 4.7-yard aDOT tells me that Washington is sold on him having plenty of YAC gas left in the tank (79.1% of his receiving yards have come after the catch through two weeks).

With Austin Ekeler (Achilles) out for the season, short targets are Samuel’s to earn and that makes him a solid PPR flex until otherwise noted. Bill Crosby-Merritt has yet to record a catch on his 16 routes this season, putting Samuel in position to monopolize the horizontal attack that stands to be awfully efficient due to the athletic abilities of Jayden Daniels.

We did see his production trail off in the middle-to-end of last season and that deserves monitoring with time. For now, however, I think you’re feeling good about playing him and embracing a reasonable floor that stands to grow before it regresses.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs PIT)

Six receiving yards on eight targets.

DeMario Douglas scored in Week 1 (64.7% snap share), but if you were rostering him, it was supposed to be with the understanding that there was a usage floor to bank on (Week 2: 23.6% snap share). That his catch rate would be elevated due to his route type and that there was PPR upside to count on.

It’s not and I’m not sure that’s going to change any time soon. The Patriots are using their running backs (TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson had combined for 15 catches already) in that role and that figures to sustain given how explosive the rookie can be.

The way this roster has taken shape, Douglas has been boxed out of his “pencil me in for five catches and be on your way” role. Without that, we are looking at an undersized receiver as a part of an inconsistent pass game.

I’m not cutting him just for the sake of doing it, but I would rather roll the dice on the Packers’ WR depth chart if we are talking about players that could step into a meaningful role in a strong offensive environment.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs LAR)

It was always going to be like this.

The Eagles won a Super Bowl last season and didn’t need much volume through the passing game to do it, so why would we assume any change?

Jalen Hurts has thrown as many passes this season as Joe Flacco has each week. That’s an extreme example to prove a point, but the fact that no Eagle has 10 targets or 70 receiving yards right now shouldn’t be as surprising as it’s being played up to be.

I was encouraged about the big boy play that DeVonta Smith made last week (28-yard contested grab), but again, that catch has accounted for 40.6% of his yardage this season.

Better times are ahead, but don’t confuse “better” with “consistent”.

You drafted Smith and in doing so, you committed to him during the good times and the bad. This is simply part of the process. It’s irritating to open the season in underwhelming fashion, but I encourage you to go through the thought exercise of timing.

If these two duds happened in Weeks 10-11, would you bat an eye?

You’re angry because you’re 0-2 because of him, and I get it. Roll with the punches. I still think the stat line at the end of the season gets to roughly where you’d expect.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs DAL)

The Bears are dividing up slot duties, which is taking usage away from DJ Moore and distributing it to nearly everyone else.

We saw Ben Johnson call three handoffs to his presumed WR1 in Week 1, but that dried up last week against the Lions (five catches for 46 yards).

Caleb Williams has yet to show much development when not throwing to Rome Odunze, and that’s concerning for a player like Moore, who makes his bones in the volume metrics, with touchdowns serving as icing on the cake.

At this pace, he’s going to have to run hot in the scoring department to satisfy fantasy managers, and we don’t have signs of that coming.

Now, the Cowboys are coming off a disastrous defensive showing, and the Bears are expected to improve a little bit every week. It wouldn’t shock me if Moore put up 15 PPR points in this matchup, but with Odunze establishing himself as the top man in Chicago, I need to see proof of concept before I plug him in.

Moore is my WR32 this week, ranking behind players like Jakobi Meyers and Jauan Jennings, receivers that I trust to offer the type of floor that I assumed Moore would give us.

DK Metcalf | PIT (at NE)

The DK Metcalf situation is a tough one to handicap.

It appears that Aaron Rodgers trusts him, and that’s a significant hurdle to clear. We can’t overlook that. Metcalf made good on a designed jump ball in the end zone against the Seahawks, and I’m sure that won’t be the last time we see something like that.

But we are also looking at a physically imposing receiver who has yet to see a deep target (153 players have seen a deep target through two weeks). He has a 5.5-yard aDOT, a mark that ranks behind Parker Washington and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Make it make sense.

Maybe we see Rodgers cut it loose this weekend (Christian Gonzalez has yet to make his season debut due to a hamstring injury), but the Arthur Smith system doesn’t traditionally encourage splash plays.

Metcalf is still a starter in all formats, but my antenna is up. If this role is the one that Metcalf assumes for the entire season, his gifts aren’t being maximized and a top-20 season is going to be an uphill battle.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at CLE)

Dontayvion Wicks leads all Packer receivers in receptions through two weeks.

Romeo Doubs has half of the WR end zone targets.

Jayden Reed nearly scored in both games.

Matthew Golden has the type of draft capital that traditionally demands more usage over time.

So yeah, this team is great, but the lack of clarity they’ve given us at the receiver position is beyond frustrating.

Reed’s collarbone injury is going to keep him out for more than a month, thus giving us fewer mouths to feed, but don’t confuse “fewer” with “not many”. Tucker Kraft looked like a budding star in the domination of the Commanders on Thursday night and, for good measure, Malik Heath made the play of the night.

Wicks is deserving of a roster spot because of the fact at the top of this section, but he’s ranked outside of my flex tier against a Browns defense that can make things difficult for the most talented receiver rooms in the league (see Week 1, Bengals).

Wicks might be the right answer by season’s end as to who the most valuable Packers receiver was, but every week, that’s not something I want to invest in. Not now at least. Let’s see what this offense looks like sans Reed on Sunday and reevaluate.

Drake London | ATL (at CAR)

When you run for 218 yards and pound a team into submission like the Falcons did over the weekend to the Vikings, you don’t really need to extend your top receiver in a major way (three catches for a team-high 49 yards on just four targets).

Before the dud in Week 2, Drake London had seen at least 13 targets in three straight games, one of which happened to come against these Panthers (Week 18: 10-187-2 stat line with 271 air yards, the most by a player in a single game for the entire season).

If the way defenses plan to slow London is by letting this ground game thrive, we might have a problem, but I don’t imagine that will be the case consistently. The Michael Penix/Drake London/Bijan Robinson triple stack could prove to be a unique way to roster three individually popular pieces in DFS this week, and yes, I’m more concerned with my DFS darts than advising you on what to do with London.

You play him — every week. Penix has made it clear that his first, and second at times, read is to the big man out of USC.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (vs NYJ)

These ultra-talented receivers are taking essentially no time to assert their dominance at the professional level. Think about the WR1 in New York (Giants), Seattle, Los Angeles (both!), Carolina, Atlanta, and Chicago, to name a few.

There appears to be essentially no learning curve for how these kids are entering the pros, and Emeka Egbuka might end up being the cream of the crop.

Players in the 2000s with 3 TD receptions in their first two career games:

• Martavis Bryant (2014)
• Jahan Dotson (2022)
• Emeka Egbuka (2025)

Pace: 68 catches and double-digit TD receptions. WRs in the 2000s to do that as a rookie:

• Brian Thomas Jr. (2024)
• Jordan Addison (2023)
• Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
• Mike Evans (2014)
• Odell Beckham (2014)

Baker Mayfield isn’t shy about featuring his top playmakers, and while Mike Evans is still getting plenty of looks, a veteran like that is at risk of seeing his usage taper off with time. At the same time, Egbuka’s role might continue to grow for the next two seasons.

He seemed to be dealing with a nagging injury on Monday night, and that deserves monitoring, but with three impressive scores and crisp route running, he’s the rookie in this class, not Ashton Jeanty, that is a stone-cold lineup lock.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at TB)

If I told you a week ago that Garrett Wilson would score nine PPR points, you would have been underwhelmed, and that would have been the right emotion.

If I told you a week ago that the Jets would complete 10 passes over the course of four quarters against the Bills, you would have been thrilled to know that Wilson managed nine PPR points.

He’s a great player, but we don’t play in a points-per-ounce-of-talent league.

Fields was never going to sustain what he did in Week 1 against the Steelers, but he’s nowhere near this bad either. Wilson is a player whose range of outcomes is wide every week, and I’m not sure that the matchup is overly predictive of what sort of day it’s going to be.

On paper, I like this matchup. The Bucs’ defense can be had, and having one fewer day to prepare should only help. That said, Fields’ inconsistencies through the air can never be ignored, and if Baker Mayfield turns this into a shootout, Tampa Bay could be putting pressure on a weak spot for this offense.

Taking all of that into account, Wilson is a low-end WR2 for me who is a good bet to reach double figures on Sunday, but unlikely to swing your matchup with a 20+ point performance.

Through two weeks, you’ve experienced the full Wilson experience. Buckle up for another 15 weeks of it.

George Pickens | DAL (at CHI)

Getting in at the best price is lovely, but getting in is the important part.

If you spent a seventh-round pick on George Pickens this summer, this PSA isn’t for you. You’re sitting pretty.

For everyone else, I’d be buying high-ish.

Pickens found the end zone last week in the goofy game of the season to date, but if you extend his two-game totals for a full 17-game season, we are looking at 68 catches for 833 yards and 8.5 touchdowns, numbers that I don’t think will be in the same zip code as where he finishes.

The Cowboys are using him to punish defenses opposite CeeDee Lamb, and it’s working. We just haven’t seen the box score explode just yet.

Pickens has drawn a defensive pass interference of 20+ yards in both games, setting up Dallas for scores without getting any fantasy credit. Be patient. This is a pass-heavy offense, and Dak Prescott clearly trusts him, making it only a matter of time, in my estimation, before Pickens turns into a weekly WR2 that you play without a second thought.

Average depth of end zone target

• 2022: 10.5 yards
• 2023: 16.6 yards
• 2024: 11.8 yards
• 2025: 16.6 yards

When Pickens hits, he’s going to hit big, and I want all PFSN readers to be in on the fun. He’s averaging two and a half end zone targets per game this season (and remember, DPI penalties don’t get logged as targets), up from his 0.49 per game rate for his career in Pittsburgh.

That number isn’t going to last, but it’s a signal of how Dallas wants to use him. They want him to pay the fantasy bills, and I’m willing to listen.

Pickens is a top 30 receiver for me this week, and I’m bullish on what the future holds.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at MIN)

Is the Joe Burrow injury ideal?

Of course not, but if you’re holding a Ja’Marr Chase bag, relax, things will be different, but fine.

After Jake Browning took over last week, Chase brought in 10 of 11 targets for 128 yards. He had more first-down catches than all of his teammates combined from the backup QB and was heavily featured from the first snap he took.

Second-half script with Jake Browning:

• Chase Brown, 6-yard run
• Ja’Marr Chase, 25-yard catch
• Brown, 3-yard run
• Chase, 12-yard catch
• Chase, 12-yard catch

They say that blind people can hear better than most. When one sense weakens, another picks up the slack. That’s the dynamic I expect to take place here: a Burrow-less offense can pile up targets to their WR1 better than most.

He fell from WR2 this week to WR7 following this news for me, as I think the ceiling is lower, given the type of targets Chase will see in this offense. But the volume projection remains elite, and that keeps him as a WR1 across all formats until otherwise noted.

Jakobi Meyers | LV (at WAS)

Geno Smith was a mess on Monday night, throwing three interceptions, a few additional poor decisions, and even more missed opportunities.

The Raiders couldn’t move the ball on the ground (RBs: 13 carries for 41 yards).

The Raiders picked up 218 total yards of offense and scored just nine points.

That run out should have had a player like Jakobi Meyers sinking your week, but instead, he was WR33 in PPR formats and just keeps producing.

Jakobi Meyers might be your favorite receiver’s favorite receiver.

His average PPR finish over his past 12 games is WR27:

• 39 targets from Aidan O’Connell
• 33 from Gardner Minshew
• 22 from Geno Smith
• 21 from Desmond Ridder

He simply churns out profitable fantasy weeks for you, and no one wants to confess their love for the stability he provides.

He’s not one of the two most talented offensive weapons on his own team and, in a vacuum, I don’t think he’s the most gifted receiver in this game, but I do have him ranked a spot ahead of Terry McLaurin in my Week 3 rankings, and I’m not really sweating it.

It could go sideways, but from a process standpoint of betting on an elevated floor in a game that could be played at a higher tempo than what we saw last night, I feel good about the production I’ll get from Meyers’ 8-10 targets.

This class of receiver (and fantasy asset in general) is often underappreciated. We focus on the elite of the elite of the tragically disappointing. Put some respect on the names of those who grind every single week to keep your team competitive.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs ATL)

I was excited about Jalen Coker early in the draft process this summer, thinking that the second-year receiver had a real chance to earn meaningful targets in a developing offense. That optimism grew after the Adam Thielen trade, but a day later, a “significant quad injury” landed him on IR.

That means Coker will miss at least the next three games, and all reporting out of Carolina has a mid-October return as the most optimistic. I still believe there’s something in this profile, but Xavier Legette will have every chance to earn more work. That leaves Coker as a drop in all formats — unless you can stash him in a free IR slot. Even then, the odds are strong that a player with a clearer path to production will go down this month.

I’m not selling all of my Coker stock because Carolina gets New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16, but you can buy back in after Halloween and likely not experience any loss in value.

Jalen McMillan | TB (vs NYJ)

Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard average depth of target on those touchdowns.

There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason (currently on IR with an absence that extends beyond the required four games, viewed as the most likely outcome).

There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I do not expect the route/target count to be high enough to garner our interest. If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust. But for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.

You’re not going this direction unless you have an IR spot burning a hole in your pocket.

Jameson Williams | DET (at BAL)

I suppose you want me to come here and say that everything is fixed. That the panic after Week 1 was overblown and that Jameson Williams’ trajectory as a strong weekly option is back.

I can’t do that, I’m sorry.

His first two targets of the second half on Sunday went for 108 yards and a touchdown. The 64-yard catch-and-run felt like a touchdown left on the field, and his 44-yard score on the next drive was exactly what you drafted him hoping for.

Splash plays are certainly a part of his profile, but outside of those two targets in short order, he was held without a catch, this coming after he turned five targets into 23 yards during the opener in Lambeau.

He’s going to be involved in this offense, and after the Amon-Ra St. Brown explosion in Week 2, the odds are good that he sees less attention over the top this week than last. I still think the season-end numbers will look fine. But the narrative entering this season was that he was capable of providing a reasonable floor to complement the single-play upside, and I’m not buying it until I see it.

The defensive strategy across the NFL over the past five seasons has been to limit the chunk plays, and the Ravens are prioritizing that at a high level. Since Week 11 of last season, this is a top-5 unit in both deep ball YPA and touchdown rate. If they can continue that trend, Williams could let you down in a similar way as Week 1.

He’s my WR32 this week, ranking behind Jauan Jennings and George Pickens, two receivers I often see ranked behind him, but two that project to be more stable this week for me.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs ARI)

It was only one game, but I was much more encouraged by what I saw from Jauan Jennings than Ricky Pearsall in the Mac Jones version of this offense.

WR details, Week 2:

• Jennings: 19.9 PPR points (+23.7% relative to expectation), 10.0 aDOT, 9.6 YAC
• Pearsall: 9.2 PPR points (-10.6% relative to expectation), 15.3 aDOT, 0.0 YAC

You could sell me on the big play upside tilting toward Pearsall, but through two weeks, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth fewest deep completions on the fifth lowest completion percentage.

Now, that’s obviously a stat that is propped up by sub-par competition (Saints and Panthers), but this Arizona defense is trending in the right direction, and the desire to take away those chunk plays is a league-wide trend.

The shoulder seemed to be a non-issue for Jennings last week, and as long as we avoid the “his body is struggling to recover” reports as this week wears on, I have Jennings 10 spots higher than his teammate in my WR ranks and squarely in the flex conversation.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs NO)

Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Those are the three WRs who have finished top-15 at the position in each of the first two weeks this season, and it’s hard to say JSN’s name doesn’t belong in that tier.

I don’t think any of us doubted the potential in this profile, but I’m sure I’m not the only one who feared a bit of a learning curve in a new role with a new QB.

Last season, Smith-Njigba was hyper-efficient (100 catches on 137 targets), operating mainly as a slot threat next to DK Metcalf. With that support gone and Cooper Kupp in, it was natural to think that he’d kick outside more, a naturally less efficient spot on the field.

Well, that’s been true. The first part. He spent 77.4% of his routes in the slot last season and is at 26.3% through two weeks this year. As for his efficiency numbers? They are nearly identical to his marks in 2021, and that’s something only the elite can pull off.

I’m not sure he can sustain that for 17 games, but he’s off to a great start and was always going to be a lineup lock.

Could he turn out to be the sleeper key that was needed at drafts this summer?

Jayden Higgins | HOU (at JAX)

This Texans team is having trouble funneling targets to a proven monster in Nico Collins, so there aren’t really enough scraps to go around for the surrounding parties.

Jayden Higgins is an interesting prospect that might have fantasy upside one day, but that day isn’t likely to be Week 3.

Or Week 4.

Or Week 5.

They have a Week 6 bye; otherwise, I’d keep going. Right now, he ranks fourth among receivers in routes run for this team, and while he seems to be the rookie WR they trust the most, that’s a low bar to clear with Jaylin Noel being more of a special teamer.

This summer, Higgins was a cheap way to bet on a C.J. Stroud bounce-back season. Process-wise, I think that made sense, but as new information presents itself, we are allowed to pivot.

I’m dumping the big-play rookie and looking for anyone with a more impactful role to add to my bench instead (a Troy Franklin type in Denver or even Tory Horton in Seattle).

Jayden Reed | GB (at CLE)

Fantasy football can be cruel at times.

For a brief moment in time on Thursday night, Jayden Reed managers were thrilled. It looked like he hauled in a beautiful 39-yard touchdown on Green Bay’s first drive against Washington, not just a 10.9-point play, but some signal that his three deep targets in the season opener weren’t a fluke.

Those vibes didn’t last long.

He crashed to the ground at the end of the play, and you could see the yellow flag graphic pop up on the broadcast.

Offensive holding, 10-yard penalty, no play.

That hurt us, but Reed was hurting too. He was holding his right shoulder in a way that communicated that everything was not OK.

Here is the play on which Packers WR Jayden Reed broke his collarbone. pic.twitter.com/8PnRMA9IRk

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 12, 2025

He never returned to the game, and even then, we optimistic Reed managers were convincing ourselves that it was as much the game situation (Green Bay largely controlled things from start to finish) and depth at the position. That the Packers were taking it easy with their presumptive WR1.

Nope.

Matt LaFleur gave us the broken collarbone diagnosis in the post-game news conference, and the current timeline is Halloween-ish.

That’s brutal.

Green Bay does have its bye during that stretch (Week 5), so that’s a positive, but for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, it’s hard to imagine them being very aggressive with Reed’s return to play, not to mention his return to peak performance.

Obviously, you IR him if you can, and I think you hold him at the end of your bench if you can’t. He’s part of a WR committee in Green Bay, and that’s annoying, but his early-season usage patterns suggested some skill growth, and there are targets begging to be earned in this offense.

The end-of-season schedule for the Packers is brutal, as they face the Broncos and Ravens during the fantasy playoffs, but the version of Reed that we’ve seen for one game and one drive this season would still be a flex option in those spots.

For those keeping track at home, Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs tied for the WR lead in routes run for Green Bay after Reed left the game on Thursday night.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at BUF)

The 18-yard touchdown was great to see in the second quarter last week, as it was a good reminder that Jaylen Waddle is a multi-faceted WR capable of special things at all three levels.

There are concerns left, right, and center in Miami these days, and a short rest game in Buffalo probably isn’t the cure to fixing them, even if there were some positive signs last week against the Patriots.

As long as Tua Tagovailoa is under center, there is upside to chase, and that’s why both Waddle and Tyreek Hill remain flex options for me this week. If you go that direction, however, you must understand the range of outcomes that are in play.

• Week 1 at IND: 7.0 PPR points (9.1 expected points)
• Week 2 vs. NE: 17.8 PPR points (9.9 expected points)

Waddle had a nearly identical end-of-game expectation in each of the first two weeks, but obviously two very different results. His aDOT in Week 1 was just 4.4 yards, but it shot up to 17.7 in Week 2.

If the Dolphins don’t know how they want to use him, how are we supposed to operate with confidence?

Jaylin Noel | HOU (at JAX)

The 53-yard punt return late in Monday night’s game against the Bucs was impactful and put his speed on display, but he’s not a part of this passing game on a regular basis and this rotation will only get more difficult to crack when Christian Kirk returns.

I don’t think he’ll ever be the 80-1,194-8 player he was during his final season at Iowa State, but he is a name I’m interested in long-term if this offense can develop.

In redraft leagues, no thank you. In a buy-low dynasty deal? I’ll co-sign it.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs GB)

Am I allowed to be disappointed in a player who has a 25+ yard grab and eight targets in both games this season?

This is my article, and I make the rules, so yes, I am allowed to be mad, and I am!

Jeudy hasn’t been a top-30 receiver in either of the first two weeks this season despite the Browns leading the world in pass attempts. I thought that in getting Joe Flacco under center, we’d not only pick up some volume, but also some efficiency.

Hasn’t been the case.

Jeudy posted a 62.1% catch rate last season despite the Cleveland team cycling through various quarterbacks, and this season so far?

56.3%

We are being asked to determine if the volume is more stable or the efficiency more concerning, and to be honest with you, I lean towards the latter.

No team in the NFL is going to average 46.5 passes per game for four months, so banking on that is statistically silly. I’d love to pencil in some regression in the right direction in terms of catch rate, though I’m not sure I can.

His slot rate has been more than chopped in half from where it stood a year ago, and his aDOT is ticking up. Neither of those is great when considering projected efficiency, and given that we aren’t sure how this quarterback situation will play out over time, this feels like an awfully risky stock to buy.

I think I just talked myself into it. If you want to gamble on a player like Calvin Ridley in an offense with more upside at the QB position, I’m in. If you really want to get ahead of the curve, what about Jeudy and your RB2 for Matthew Golladay and a top 10-ish running back?

Hit up our Trade Analyzer with your best ideas, but from a strategic perspective, I’m in favor of both options.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs CIN)

Jordan Addison has one more week of suspension caused by a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. He’s proven himself plenty worthy of waiting on, but he is a major regression candidate (TD on 8.2% of his career targets) and is missing out on a favorable run to open the season.

Even with concerns about consistency, there’s no denying the pedigree at play here and the system bump he gets from being tied to Kevin O’Connell. Remember that, like Rashee Rice, we are not talking about an injury situation where a ramp-up period needs to be penciled in.

If you liked Addison before his injury, you should like him even more after. I was a touch more skeptical than the field during draft season, and that’s why I won’t rank him as a flex option next week against the Steelers in Dublin, but I’m open to the idea of him working himself into that conversation sooner than later.

Josh Downs | IND (at TEN)

I’m never going to turn my nose up at six catches for 51 yards, but Josh Downs has totaled just eight grabs on 11 targets for 63 yards and zero scores during this Daniel Jones heater.

I have a hard time thinking we aren’t in the midst of the best ball this offense is going to give us this season (I’ll stop short of labeling them the 2024 Saints, but you get the idea), and they’ve been able to do it without much help from their receiver room.

Uh-oh.

What happens when the scoring dries up? When, not if. This team isn’t going to average 31 points per game, but they also aren’t going to be taking usage away from Jonathan Taylor or Tyler Warren anytime soon.

For my friends who play in AFC South-only leagues, it’s Downs over Michael Pittman this week for me. But outside of that, I’m not interested in playing any Indy receiver until we see them prioritized in a manner that they haven’t been during this surprisingly hot start.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (vs MIA)

I feel like this entire division is made up of receivers that you could talk yourself into when forced, but would never look to do it when your roster is reasonably full.

The Bills spent the offseason talking up Joshua Palmer, and he’s delivered a 32-yard catch in both wins this season. He’s an athletic 6’1″ 25-year-old who is attached to Josh Allen: it’s not hard to see some weekly upside.

That said, the target earning is something I have to see from him. He was never really given the chance to do so during his final two seasons with the Chargers, thus making it a skill I’m doubting until proven otherwise.

That part also concerns me. It concerns me that the Chargers, knowing that they were going to embrace a high PROE this season, elected to move on from Palmer. They spent a third-round pick on him in 2021 and know him better than anyone.

They didn’t mind letting him walk, and it’s not as if the Bills have excelled at adding big-time receivers to this Allen-led juggernaut in the past (i.e., Amari Cooper).

I’m skeptical. Roster him if you want a piece of this offense. I can’t blame you there, I’d just do it with measured expectations.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs CIN)

Does it feel to anyone else like Justin Jefferson just has the difficult level on football life turned up to All Madden?

He’s had a revolving door at the quarterback position year-over-year lately, and now, it’s week to week. McCarthy is going to miss 2-4 weeks (2-3 games), and that means Carson Wentz gets to add his name to the list of QBs to be responsible for getting Jefferson the ball.

I think you’re okay here.

It’s been a minute since we’ve seen Wentz in a real role, but in 2021, with the Colts. His WR1 averaged nearly twice as many PPG as his WR2 and was targeted on 24.2% of his routes. Michael Pittman is obviously no Jefferson, so I’d expect Minnesota’s All-Pro to earn even more volume and do more with it.

Jefferson falls from a high-end WR1 to a low-end WR1, something that shouldn’t impact your decision-making in a redraft environment.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs PIT)

Kayshon Boutee earned eight targets on 44 routes in Week 1, but just one on 22 in Week 2.

Yeah, he’s one of “those” players.

This offense lacks a true difference maker at the pass catcher positions, and that opens the door for a player like Boutee to make an impact (his one target was a 16-yard touchdown on New England’s second drive last weekend against the Dolphins), but asking him to sustain it for stretches of time isn’t wise.

This is exactly the type of player I like having on my bench.

With Drake Maye positioned to develop on the fly, you could sell yourself on the upside of his receivers whenever you’re in a pinch. It’s not as if you’re having to squint to see the potential: this team was expected to be a playoff team this season.

Low-volume weeks are going to happen, especially if the Pats’ run game can remain productive. That said, this is an offense that can hang 30 points in the right spot, and that’s enticing if you’re in a roster pinch.

The Steelers defense might be terrible, but I’m not jumping to that conclusion just yet. Boutee won’t be ranked as a viable flex option for me until we get into bye weeks (they start in Week 5, which will impact the number of reliable options at my disposal).

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs DEN)

I don’t want to say that Father Time is on his heels, but in the battle that the 33-year-old Keenan Allen is fighting this season, the veteran receiver has certainly thrown the first punch.

This is the first time in his storied career that he has caught a touchdown pass in each of the first two weeks of a season. The score on Monday night was a nice non-verbal communication moment with a QB he clearly trusts, Justin Herbert.

I think the production is here to stay.

The touchdowns have helped Allen finish as a top 20 PPR receiver in each of the first two weeks this season, and while I don’t think he scores every week, the 8.5 targets he’s averaging appear sticky with how this offense is functioning right now.

Quentin Johnston is going to make some big plays, and Ladd McConkey is going to lead this team in targets, but there’s very much a niche, chain-moving role available, and Allen is as good as anyone in those spots.

He’s unlikely to see much (if any) of Patrick Surtain this week, and that’s huge. Sign me up for another 5+ catches and 60+ yards, production that lands him inside of my top 30 at the position in Week 3.

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs MIA)

I’m not sure we’ve learned a damn thing about Buffalo’s passing game through two weeks.

The season opener was that bonkers game against the Ravens, where they came back from the dead with a Derrick Henry fumble and deflected touchdown passes.

Not sustainable.

Week 2 in New York was a systematic demotion of the Jets that saw Josh Allen get his face bashed in and the Bills run the ball 43 times.

I had Keon Coleman as a preseason sleeper, and I stand by that, but asking for consistent production is probably a bit much. He’s been productive for one quarter this season (22.5 PPR points in the fourth quarter of Week 1), but he really didn’t have many opportunities last week to show us signs of growth.

This is a great matchup, obviously, but it carries the same game script concern that Coleman fell victim to last week. I have both primary Buffalo receivers ranked in the WR30-40 range, a tier where I’m comfortable flexing them if needed, but don’t feel obligated to play them.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs MIA)

In what felt like a good spot against the Jets (Sauce Gardner presumably on Keon Coleman and thus leaving vacated space), Khalil Shakir was held without a catch in the first half last week and finished with just a single reception on two targets.

What gives?

This is an interesting two-game sample. I’m buying into Shakir being the consistent threat he’s proven to be over time, because his slot usage has remained in the same range as it always has.

But …

It’s only an 11-target sample, so do what you will with it, but Shakir’s aDOT is 10.3 yards thus far (2024: 5.6). I don’t think that’s sticky, especially if Coleman takes the step forward that we expect, but it’s at least worth tracking.

I still think Shakir is a rich man’s Wan’Dale Robinson, and I realize how insane that could sound after the Giants’ slot machine broke the Week 2 slate.

If I could acquire Shakir for Robinson today, I’d do it without thinking twice.

This Miami matchup is going to be a get-right for plenty of players this season, and I think there’s a chance we see that come to fruition for Shakir. I have him ranked just ahead of DJ Moore in my WR3 tier for Week 3.

Kyle Williams | NE (vs PIT)

Kyle Williams may have dominated at Washington State last season (70-1,198-14), but it’s clear that the Patriots don’t think the third-round pick is ready for the bright lights of the NFL.

New England laid an egg in Week 1 but got back on track last week and has playoff aspirations. For me, that means they are less likely to push through a developmental curve, which is why there are eight routes (one target) for Williams thus far.

If this season were to go sideways, Williams could see his opportunity count spike, but by the time that’s the case, he’s burned a hole in your roster for multiple months.

You took a shot at your draft on an unknown, and that’s fine. It’s also fine to think differently now that we have more information.

Williams should be a free agent in all redraft formats.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs DEN)

Ladd McConkey probably needs to play more than 18 games as a professional before I toss around the word “inevitable”, but it certainly feels that way.

For his career, all he’s done is haul in 88-of-121 targets and offer weekly consistency at a level well beyond his years. After catching all five of his targets on Monday night, he’s up to nine straight games with at least five receptions, and that’s good for the three longest active streak in the league.

To open the game, Justin Herbert completed 5-of-10 passes. He was 3-of-3 when throwing to his WR1 and 2-of-7 when making the poor decision of looking elsewhere.

The graceful aging of Keenan Allen and the spike plays of Quentin Johnston would have scared me in 2024, but with Jim Harbaugh opening up this offense, I’m not the least bit concerned.

McConkey is going to be a top 20 receiver for me every week, and this week is no different despite a tough matchup on paper.

Luther Burden III | CHI (vs DAL)

Luther Burden has turned 14 routes into two receiving yards through two weeks and is clearly not in Ben Johnson’s immediate plans.

I’m open to the idea that things change over time, but we will get signals of that well ahead of time. Right now, this is a shaky offense with five pass catchers running well ahead of him.

I don’t care what you think of Burden as a prospect, this role isn’t worth our time. Use this roster spot on a player with a cleaner path to work in an offense with a higher floor. Not all rookies hit the ground running, and Burden is the latest example.

Malik Nabers | NYG (vs KC)

Malik Nabers is coming off the best game of his young career (37.7 PPR points) and has established himself as one of the greatest forces of nature in the league.

Tough matchup? Don’t care.

Shaky QB projections? Not worried.

Nabers is a highlight waiting to happen and will get every chance to showcase his talent. He’s seen at least 10 targets in 12 of 17 career games, and it feels like they aren’t throwing his way enough.

Multiple 165+ receiving yard games within their first 17 NFL contests (active players):

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Justin Jefferson
• Malik Nabers

That’s the tier Nabers has put himself in, and if Russell Wilson can deliver league-average play every week, we are looking at a real threat to lead the position in scoring.

If the G-Men end up making a change under center, I’ll have to move some things around, but the impact wouldn’t change my expectations for their alpha receiver in a meaningful way.

Whatever you paid for Nabers this summer is going to feel like a bargain entering the 2026 season.

Marquise Brown | KC (at NYG)

What do you mean Hollywood Brown isn’t going to set the single-season targets record?

After seeing 16 looks in the season-opening loss to the Chargers, Brown was one of four Chiefs to see 5-6 targets. He filled in one-for-one for Xavier Worthy in that first game, but with a week to adjust, Andy Reid opted for a flatter target distribution.

The Giants just allowed four Cowboys pass catchers to clear 14.5 PPR points last week, and while I don’t think that’s going to happen again this week, I do think attacking New York through the air will be a common approach.

If Worthy plays, there’s not a discussion to be had here, as Brown will rank as a WR4 for me. Should the speedster sit again, a double-digit PPR showing is very possible, and Brown would threaten WR3 territory in my ranks.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at SF)

Football is a funny game. Isn’t it?

Harrison Jr. runs hot on six targets in Week 1, scores 18.1 PPR points, and gets excited about a second-year prospect.

In Week 2, he draws a 38-yard pass interference penalty and sees a short end zone fade deflected late.

If he isn’t grabbed on the bomb and converts the 50/50 ball, he finishes with 65 yards and a touchdown, nearly identical to his Week 1 showing in New Orleans (71 yards and a TD).

The 49ers aren’t as bad on the defensive end as they were last season, but this isn’t an elite unit either. I expect the Cardinals to have success in this spot, and that has their top receiver sitting as a top 15 option for me this week and a reasonable DFS target.

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at LAC)

Troy Franklin had a big Week 2. Outside of him, five Broncos have four to seven catches through two weeks, and Marvin Mims Jr. is a part of that mess.

After some spike plays in 2024, our collective hope was that Sean Payton would go out of his way to scheme up favorable spots for a specific skill set, but that’s pretty clearly not the case.

All is not lost, however. His 23-yard touchdown last week came on the first drive and was all air yards, a sign that maybe he’s worked his way into the scripted set of plays. I still think the target hierarchy in Denver is TBD, and that gives me hope that Mims can develop into a flex option as the season progresses.

I’m not expecting big things in this divisional matchup, but I’m not selling my shares.

Matthew Golden | GB (at CLE)

I can’t say this with 100% certainty, but I don’t remember a rookie receiver having as many carries as catches through two weeks that I’ve remained more optimistic about than Matthew Golden.

The raw numbers are … well, underwhelming. Despite running a route on 63.2% of Love dropbacks this season (third on the team, second among receivers), Golden has two catches for 16 yards.

But hear me out.

He had a 33-yard end zone target on fourth down during Green Bay’s first drive on Thursday night, and while a good play from the defender broke it up, we are talking about taking a high-impact shot to a rookie in an effort to set the tone for the game.

You have my attention.

Love has been more aggressive through two weeks than we’ve seen at any point in his career, and that was apparent with another bomb directed Golden’s way later in the first half.

Incomplete.

The production hasn’t been there, but the shot plays have been, and with them handing him the rock twice against the Commanders, they clearly want the 23rd overall pick to be a factor sooner than later.

The urgency received a bump post-game when we got confirmation that Reed had broken his collarbone and could miss up to two months. By no means does that make Golden a must-start, but if the Packers want him to be involved and the depth chart is now cooperating, this is the time to acquire the speed demon at a reasonable price (17.0 yards per catch last season at Texas).

Packer routes run following the Reed injury:

• Tucker Kraft: 26
• Romeo Doubs: 22
• Golden: 22
• Dontayvion Wicks: 19
• Malik Heath: 7

The trade pitch is easy: two catches in two games and a bye coming up. The odds of you playing Golden in the short term aren’t great, so if you’re dealing with a 0-2 team, you can lean into their desperation.

Do it quickly. The Browns are a tough matchup this week, but after that, they get the Cowboys, Bengals, and Cardinals, with the Week 5 bye thrown in for good measure. Golden might never be a player you’re flexing with high levels of confidence because I’m not sure what the ceiling is when it comes to targets per game, but an upside player in a good offensive environment with an elite pedigree?

That profile has a way of being useful over the course of a long season.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at TEN)

Josh Downs has assumed the slot duties among Colt receivers as this group looks to work around the immediate excellence of Tyler Lauletta.

If you told me that entering the season, I would have been running away from Michael Pittman Jr., but he’s caught 9-of-12 targets for 114 yards and a score when lined up outside of the slot.

Betting on Daniel Jones continuing to play at this high a level is dangerous, but Mr. Dimes earning himself an extended leash is great for all of the Indy pass catchers. Pittman is unlikely to crack my top 35 at the position until we get into bye weeks and/or injuries factor in more, but he’s not sitting far outside of that and has the type of stable role that I like to load my bench with.

I feel good about penciling him in for 10-12 points in any given week with Jones playing QB, and that’ll settle in the WR40 range more often than not.

Mike Evans | TB (vs NYJ)

We are nearing a “get off while the gettin’ is good” situation with Mike Evans.

The 32-year-old can obviously still play; you don’t earn 19 targets through two weeks if you can’t, but Emeka Egbuka certainly looks like the better option, and when Chris Godwin returns, I can’t help but think that Evans’ target share could be at risk.

He’s caught five balls in both games this season, but his longest gain is 22 yards. Egbuka is the more dangerous downfield option and is being featured in scoring situations, something that drove Evans’ value for years (NFL leader in end zone targets from 2023-24).

It is worth noting that he’s essentially been shadowed by a strong corner in both weeks thus far, and Sauce Gardner could make it three weeks in a row.

By “worth noting,” I mean “worth noting to your trade partner during negotiations.” Those matchups could allow you to explain away a bumpy start, especially if a big game happens in the near future. Should that occur, we are looking at a sell candidate that you can get out of before any real loss occurs.

Stay tuned.

Nico Collins | HOU (at JAX)

We got the first target of the game thrown to Nico Collins and an early touchdown that was a work of art against the Bucs on Monday night.

Off to the races after a down Week 1, right? Right?!?

Wrong.

Houston simply cannot protect C.J. Stroud for long enough to make the breakout Collins season a realistic outcome. He was tackled on the one-yard line on a red zone slant, and while the effort was there with end zone targets galore in an effort to finish that position, no luck.

Collins is a locked-in fantasy starter who has seen 35 targets over his last three meetings with the Jaguars (27 catches across those contests, all of which saw him reach triple figures in terms of receiving yards), but the upside is lacking.

There’s not much you can do. Trading him would be selling low, and I certainly don’t recommend that.

I take that back, there is something you can do.

Divine intervention.

Join me in the pre-bedtime ritual of looking to the sky and wishing time to throw into existence for Stroud. If we get that this weekend, or any weekend, I think he’s a threat to lead the position in scoring.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at LAC)

Pat Bryant came to Denver and was immediately expected to do big things, given Sean Payton’s success with that general profile in the past.

Our expectations weren’t fair, and we’ve been reminded of that with the kid running just 10 routes through two weeks.

Payton knows he has a win-now team on his hands, and that has him taking a slow approach with his rookie class. I’m more confident that RJ Harvey will work himself into a role that means something to us over time than Bryant, especially after Troy Franklin essentially looked like the player we wanted Bryant to be last weekend.

You can safely cut ties here. If things begin to tick up as time passes, there will be plenty of chances to get ahead of the curve: he’s not playing enough to have the type of spike week that would make him a waiver priority.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at PHI)

The Rams know how they want to use Nacua.

Opponents know how the Rams want to use Nacua.

It doesn’t matter.

His aDOT and target metrics through two weeks this season are nearly identical to what they were last season, and there’s nothing anyone can scheme up to stop him (18 catches on 20 targets up to this point).

Puka Nacua is ridiculous pic.twitter.com/EpKevtK8Lg

— ThatsGoodSports (@BrandonPerna) September 14, 2025

Oh, and they continue to work on creative ways to get their best player in space. His slot usage is up with Cooper Kupp now in Seattle, and he’s carried the rock 10 times in his past seven regular season games (45-yard TD on Sunday).

Watching Nacua play can be a nerve-racking experience because his body always seems to be in harm’s way, but at the end of the day, every day, he’s putting up 15+ PPR points with slate-breaking upside.

Rashee Rice | KC (at NYG)

Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and with a Week 10 bye, you’re looking at a fantasy star that needs to hit the ground running in a month when you get him back.

Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.

READ MORE: What Happened to Rashee Rice? Breaking Down Why the Chiefs WR Isn’t Playing in Week 1 vs. the Chargers

With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.

If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term. I’m told this is what parenting is like, but I cannot confirm.

If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:

Week 12 vs. Colts

Stat to track: Second-highest short pass passer rating allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse).

Week 13 at Cowboys

Stat to track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%).

Week 14 vs. Texans

Stat to track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3).

Week 15 vs. Chargers

Stat to track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate prior vs LAC: 65.4%).

Week 16 at Titans

Stat to track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes.

Week 17 vs. Broncos

Stat to track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest.

Rashid Shaheed | NO (at SEA)

Rashid Shaheed saw plenty of volume in Week 1 (nine targets against the Cardinals) and scored, by his standards, a unique touchdown on Sunday against the 49ers.

Some would call that making the most of a bad situation; I see it as keeping your selling window open.

Shaheed TD reception lengths for his career before this:

• 19
• 34
• 39
• 43
• 45
• 53
• 58
• 59
• 68
• 70

The tough part of this is that I think Shaheed is a talented player with a bright future. I just don’t think that future really starts in 2025.

Spencer Rattler finished with good counting numbers in Week 2 (73.5% complete with three touchdowns), but, per our QBi metric, he didn’t approach one of the 15 best performances of the week.

Last week felt like a best-case scenario, and I’m more than willing to trade away any beneficiaries. His current production dwarfs that of Darnell Mooney and Matthew Golden, but those are two receivers I’d personally take in a one-for-one deal.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs DET)

Rashod Bateman’s “thing” in his breakout 2024 was that he was Baltimore’s Rashid Shaheed: a big play waiting to happen that could rack up double-digit points on a single target.

It worked last season (16.8 yards per catch with nine scores), and if you benefited from it, more power to you.

It’s not happening this season, and that shouldn’t be overly surprising, considering that he was largely a fantasy afterthought for the first three years of his career. The field stretch is averaging just 0.57 yards per route this season and has cashed in just 49.7% of his expected points.

And the Ravens have scored 81 points.

They don’t need Bateman to put points on the board, and he seems to be at more risk of losing usage (Isaiah Likely will eventually return, and Devonté Walker or Tylan Wallace could build on what they did Sunday) than gaining it.

We have an extended sample of Bateman being a below-average target earner at the professional level: there’s no statistical reason to burn a roster spot in this fashion.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs ARI)

There’s a lot to like in the profile of Ricky Pearsall, but under Mac Jones last week, Jauan Jennings appeared to be the one receiver worthy of our trust.

Jennings held a 5-4 edge in receptions over Pearsall, but he was +4 in the targets department and projects better due to the quality of the opportunities.

Against the Saints, half of Pearsall’s targets came 15+ yards downfield and didn’t gain any ground after the catch (Jennings: 9.6 yards per catch after the reception). In the right spot, that can be valuable; I’m just not sure this is one of those situations, as opponents have averaged under seven air yards per throw against Arizona since the start of last season (fifth-lowest).

I’ve got Jennings in the top half of my 30s at the position while Pearsall settles in toward the back end of the 30s at the position, alongside names like Stefon Diggs and Week 2 star Wan’Dale Robinson.

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs DAL)

Is Rome Odunze the best receiver in Chicago?

Is Rome Odunze the third-best receiver in the offensively loaded NFC North?

I think both are destined to be true this season if they aren’t already. Through two weeks, Odunze is the only Bear with a touchdown reception (three), leads the team in receiving yards by 51, and has more catches than any of his teammates have targets.

The touchdown he scored on Chicago’s final possession of the first half was symbolic of everything we wanted to be true. The Bears took Caleb Williams and Odunze both inside the top 10 of the 2024 draft, the dream being that they’d help facilitate the development of each other and form a feared tandem for years to come.

Odunze is the only player (barring Keenan Allen) with six grabs and a touchdown reception in both weeks this season. I don’t just rank him as the best receiver in this offense; I have him as my WR21, ahead of names like Tee Higgins and Mike Evans, whom you drafted a handful of rounds ahead of him.

You may have missed the big Odunze game in Week 2 because you were too stubborn to move off of your priors. I wouldn’t make that error again.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at CLE)

Romeo Doubs leads the Green Bay receivers in route share (he’s run a route on 75.4% of Jordan Love dropbacks through two weeks), and while he’s not yet at 100 yards for the season, he’s made impactful plays in both of their victories.

In Week 1 against the Lions, he had a pair of 20+ yard grabs (including a 48-yarder), and on Thursday night, he scored his first touchdown of the season, a play where the Packers cleared out his side and bet on him to win on a slant route inside the five-yard line.

We saw glimpses of his potential in 2022 (eight touchdowns), showing that his Nevada numbers (TD on 11.6% of his collegiate receptions) weren’t just the product of lower-level competition, and it’s very clear that the Packers trust him.

But should you?

First half stat lines, Week 2:

• Tucker Kraft: 3 catches for 89 yards
• Malik Heath: 1 catch for 37 yards
• Dontayvion Wicks: 3 catches for 33 yards
• Doubs: 3 catches for 28 yards, TD
• Chris Brooks: 3 catches for 27 yards

The Jayden Reed injury (out 6-8 weeks with a broken collarbone) opens up usage, and Doubs has as good a shot as anyone to pick up the slack. That said, we are still in the part of the schedule where all 32 teams are in action, and while the Browns franchise might be in disarray, their defense can still hang.

Doubs ranks outside of my flex range for this week, but if he can earn targets at a reasonable rate, I could see that changing when the Packers travel to Dallas next Sunday night.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs PIT)

Stefon Diggs has 10 catches for 82 yards this season, production that hasn’t really moved the needle during this uneven start for the Patriots.

Kayshon Boutte has been the attention grabber, but Diggs actually holds the end in expected PPR points through two weeks, and his high catch rate (83.3%) is likely to be stable as long as his aDOT stays below eight yards (currently: 7.6).

This season, we’ve seen 11 of Diggs’ 12 targets come when Drake Maye sets up in the ‘gun, a play structure that typically leans into Diggs’ route running more than anything.

I don’t think we’ll see many spike weeks from the 31-year-old, but could he consistently flirt with 10 PPR points and serve as reasonable lineup depth as injuries pile up?

I think it’s possible.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at MIN)

Tee Higgins’ first chunk play of the season came last week as he turned in a 42-yard touchdown where he turned an on-point Jake Browning pass into success. It was a vintage effort where he survived a three-man collision and walked into the end zone, reminding us of the good times he had in 2023 with QB2 under center.

2023 metrics from Browning:

• Higgins: 11.0 PPR PPG, 2.6 points per target, 16.6 aDOT
• Ja’Marr Chase: 10.1 PPR PPG, 1.9 points per target, 9.0 aDOT

In this specific matchup, I fear that we are looking at a WR7 or WR37 finish from Higgins. The overly aggressive Vikings make running deep routes difficult, but they also leave open advantageous spots on those splash plays if they can’t get to the quarterback.

I lean towards the latter.

We saw a very focused Bengals offense with Browning under center in Week 2, speeding up the process and asking him to get the ball out more quickly than Burrow typically does.

That type of scheme can beat Minnesota, so I think there’s some potential for a Cincinnati offense that may be overlooked with Burrow on the bench. That said, history suggests that those looks are on the way out, much like Chase’s, thus causing Higgins to slip outside of my top 20 at the position for the first time this season.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs LV)

Terry McLaurin was a fourth-round pick this summer, but he doesn’t yet have 50 yards, a touchdown, or a 15-yard grab in 2022.

That’s not great, but I’m not really concerned at all and still view him as a weekly starter in all formats.

In watching the Commanders, Jayden Daniels still clearly trusts McLaurin. I’m willing to write off the slow start due to some poor variance (his average depth of target is more than a yard higher than last season, likely a result of the Deebo Samuel acquisition) and an offensive environment that has yet to look nearly as potent as they were a season ago (39 points scored through two weeks).

Percentage of targets coming on third down this season:

• McLaurin: 53.8%
• Ertz: 38.5%
• Samuel: 22.2%

Better times are ahead. McLaurin is actually ahead of where he was this time a year ago, a season in which his stock took off in a favorable Week 3 spot.

Will history repeat itself?

You’re getting too cute if you sit McLaurin for a flavor-of-the-week type this week.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs ATL)

The Panthers may not have a fully functional offense yet, but they appear motivated to showcase Tetairoa McMillan and put the league on notice for years to come.

He has more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined and has 59.4% of their WR receiving yards while earning 35.2% of the WR targets. This feels an awful lot like 2024 Brian Thomas Jr.: a solo act in a tepid offense that hopes to develop its franchise quarterback overnight by way of drafting an alpha receiver.

Only time will tell if that plan works (I’m not sure Jaguar fans are supporting it today), but for our sake, this structure allows McMillan to thrive weekly despite playing in an offense that appears destined to have more downs than ups in 2025.

The rookie has yet to score or see an end zone target, but that’s the price of doing business here. You’re going to sacrifice absolute ceiling for a rock-solid volume floor, and I think you take that trade-off every time from your WR2.

The Falcons’ defense has looked sharper this year than last, but if 5-68-0 is the floor (his Week 1 performance), I have no problem labeling him a top 20 player at the position.

Travis Hunter | JAX (vs HOU)

Liam Coen mentioned in the offseason that Travis Hunter would be used more as a receiver than anything. In Week 1, that was 100% true, but he backpedaled a bit after the win against the Panthers, telling us that his role on the defensive end would “increase”. Vague, yes, but enough to scare us after his word was proven gold just a week earlier.

As it turns out, he was again telling the truth, and we simply had a meltdown for no reason. He said what he said. He didn’t say that offensive usage would come off his plate, simply that the defensive involvement would increase.

• Week 1 vs. CAR: 39 offensive snaps (27 routes) and 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2 at CIN: 42 offensive snaps (27 routes) and 39 defensive snaps

What worried me a touch was the 5-57-1 stat line that Dyami Brown put forward in Cincinnati last week.

He’s not going to overtake Hunter as the WR2 in this offense, but if Trevor Lawrence can develop a connection with him, there’s a world in which the Jags look for ways to keep him on the field more often.

Combine that with the fact that Hunter appeared to get shaken up a bit at one point during this game, and we have a path to where this experiment could go south.

We aren’t there. Hunter has earned 14 targets through two weeks and is very clearly a player they are trying to get involved with the easy button targets (aDOT: 6.5 yards). This offense as a whole is a bit broken right now, and that’s subtracting from everyone’s bottom line, but I’m OK holding tight on this unicorn.

Hunter checks in as a mediocre flex for me this week against a stingy defense. If Derek Stingley Jr. ends up focusing on Brian Thomas, we could see the creativity of Coen shine through in ways to feature Hunter, unlike what we’ve seen thus far.

He’s not a must-start by any means right now, but he is a must “sit tight and be patient” player, a sentiment I have for most humans when trying to do something that most view as impossible.

Tyquan Thornton | KC (at NYG)

Tyquan Thornton is a one-trick pony, but that one trick happens to be disproportionately valuable to us.

He was put on this Earth to take the top off defenses. Playing in an offense with a generational quarterback gives a skill set like that hope of getting home a few times a season.

He almost cashed in a deep look in Week 1, and in Week 2, after Patrick Mahomes missed him on what should have been a 75-yard score, he hauled in a 49-yard touchdown to keep the Chiefs alive against the Eagles.

The problem is simple: Thornton’s role stands to regress as the season progresses. When this receiver room is full, I’m not sure we’ll see more than a handful of vertical routes from him, and that would make him unplayable.

In the short term, however, he’s playing three-quarters of the snaps and filling an important role: healthy and active pass catcher.

Thornton doesn’t profile as a big target earner, and that’s going to keep him out of my top 50 most weeks. We just saw the Giants get lit up by Dak Prescott, and they appear to be the type of defense where opponents prefer to attack through the air.

Until we see a healthy version of Worthy, Thornton is a viable roster stash in redraft formats, but starting him is a step I’m not willing to take. If you have that feeling in your gut that a big play is coming, consider him in a DFS Showdown tournament.

Players like this are fun, but we often get caught up in chasing the huge day, forgetting that it may cost us two, three, or four weeks of dead space to get any return on that investment.

Tyreek Hill | MIA (at BUF)

The 47-yard catch for Tyreek Hill against the Patriots was little more than an arm punt that found its way into his arms.

I’m not asking him to give it back, but if not for that play, he would have nine catches for 102 yards and zero touchdowns this season.

Miami was able to score 27 points last week against a New England defense missing Christian Gonzalez. While the Bills’ defense isn’t healthy, they’ve proven the ability to keep plays in front of them at a high level (eighth-lowest opponent aDOT since the beginning of last season).

Hill reached triple figures in the receiving yardage department last week, and that may result in the regaining of trust for some. I’m not there yet.

Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that the ‘Fins aren’t interested in dealing their WR1 this season, and that has me thinking that this could be an opportunity for you to sell. Point to the big play as a sign of things to come and maybe get out of the Miami business while the getting is good.

It’s risky, but given his current market cost, I think you have more to gain than lose by exploring those options.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs KC)

Like we’ve said for years, play Wan’Dale Robinson when you need upside and big plays.

40% of Wan’Dale Robinson’s career 30+ yard catches have come today

Sunday’s explosion was a good reminder that, as my friend Matthew Berry says, “this is a funny game played with an oblong ball. Goofy stuff happens”.

If you told me Robinson was lining up in a college game this weekend, I’m not sure I would give you an 8-142-1 projection, but that’s what he did in the craziest game of Week 2 in Dallas. Heck, we weren’t even 100% sure he was healthy entering this game after an ankle injury cost him reps during the week.

The important thing here is not to overreact. Entering this season, Robinson was a floor elevator that was good as a flex option when you felt good about the rest of your roster and just wanted your ship to be steady.

That’s what he was entering last week, and that’s what he’ll be entering next week. The Cowboys were missing Daron Bland last week and have an offense geared to get into those types of shootouts. The Chiefs are healthy on defense and show no interest in a track meet.

Robinson was good for six catches and 55 yards in Week 1 against the Commanders, a stat line that is much more likely to be what we get on Sunday than the outlier of outlier games he’s fresh off of.

Xavier Legette | CAR (vs ATL)

I think we can be done here in standard-sized leagues.

Xavier Legette was a first-round pick in 2024, but struggled with consistency as a rookie and hasn’t really shown signs of growth through two weeks this season.

Of course, there’s a quarterback component to everything receiver-related, but even when Bryce Young was playing the best football of his life (late last season or in the fourth quarter on Sunday), Legette hasn’t come along for the ride.

His only game with 60 receiving yards last season came against the vulnerable Bengals in September, and as Carolina nearly pulled off the comeback of the season on Sunday, Legette turned eight targets into negative-2 yards.

That’s close to unbelievable when you consider that his teammates turned 45 targets into 330 yards. Tetairoa McMillan led the way in his second game as a pro, Hunter Renfrow was on his couch a month ago and scored twice, and Brycen Tremayne, he of the 75-catch four-year college career, totaled 48 yards and one splash play.

If not in that exact spot (trailing big against a shaky defense with Coker out), when?

If you were rostering Legette and hoping for upside, you can move on. He was a dart throw on draft day, and it’s clear that he’s not viewed as a 2025 difference-maker by a team that is grasping for hope for the upcoming seasons.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at NYG)

It took until Friday, but the Chiefs ruled out Xavier Worthy for Week 2 with a shoulder injury that cost him all but three snaps in the season opener.

His ability to get on the practice field at all last week puts him in a position to return this week, something that didn’t seem likely given the optics of the injury.

So, can you trust him in this spot?

The Chiefs did get him two opportunities (one rush and one target) before the injury, and the fact that his replacement went on to see 16 targets against the Chargers points pretty strongly to how this team plans to use their talented receiver in his second season while Rashee Rice serves his suspension.

There is, of course, plenty of risk in betting on a loose shoulder, as it could impact how he plays and how Andy Reid deploys him. I have him ranked as more of an “if you need upside” flex play than a surefire option, but this is a pass-centric offense playing against a defense that can shut down the run.

You’re likely playing him if you have him, but don’t be afraid to consider other options if you feel like you’re already favored in your Week 3 matchup.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs DET)

Zay Flowers has five career games with 7+ catches while posting 75+ air yards, and two have come this season.

I expressed tremendous optimism in this space last week about Flowers showing signs of developing into an alpha target earner. Although this is a low-volume offense, I continue to be impressed.

We know that Todd Monken is a tactical genius, so it’s not lost on me that Flowers was in a position to be targeted on four of Lamar Jackson’s first six throws over the weekend.

It would appear that Father Time is catching up with Mark Andrews, and that only furthers my confidence in my Flowers position. He’s the only Raven right now with 100 receiving yards (he has 218). Heck, he’s the only Raven with 5+ receptions.

The way this offense is constructed, it doesn’t need to have a WR who is on fantasy radars. But when a player produces at this level and is a perfect schematic fix, who are we to argue?

Flowers has moved to a top 20 receiver for me the rest of the way and a top 15 guy in what could be a very exciting conclusion to the third week of the season.

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange | JAX (vs HOU)

The Jaguars seem to be a very theoretical team these days.

In theory, banking on Trevor Lawrence, given the pedigree, mobility, and offensive system, is a good idea. In theory, an athletic weapon like Travis Hunter can solve a lot of problems. In theory, Brenton Strange being on the field for 90% of the offensive snaps in a game that featured 58 points should net more than 4.7 PPR points.

Theory can turn into reality at a moment’s notice, but we aren’t there right now. Mighty Jake Browning took down the Jags on Sunday, and Lawrence again underwhelmed.

Sure, the three touchdowns look nice at a glance, but multiple interceptions and a 57.1% completion rate leave plenty of room to be desired.

This isn’t a Lawrence conversation until it is. Both running backs were productive on their screen passes, the area that Lawrence seems most comfortable in, and it’s safe to bank on Thomas and Hunter soaking up 40-50% of the targets most weeks.

So, where does Strange win?

I think he’s a good chain-moving option, but Jacksonville is telling us that those short passes are the only spot on the field they trust their “franchise” QB (six total air yards on his four touchdowns this season, with 65.7% of his pass attempts failing to travel 10 yards in the air).

If that’s going to continue to be the case, Strange is fighting with considerably more talented teammates for the same role, and that’s a fantasy disaster.

He’s going to stay on the field, but as we learned from Cade Otton in this Liam Coen system just 12 months ago, “on the field” and “productive” are nowhere near the same thing. Strange isn’t a must-roster player and is part of a streaming tier that seems to get longer by the week.

Brock Bowers | LV (at WAS)

The knee injury was a discussion point all week long, but Brock Bowers suited up on Monday night and earned eight targets because that’s what he was put on this planet to do.

He posted a 75.4% snap share (50% in Week 1, and that was what sent the fantasy industry into a tailspin) with 81.6% of those snaps being routes.

I understand that last week was unpleasant, having to stress his status every time you checked on your lineup, but the injury appears to be in the past. His 8.8 PPR points against the Chargers weren’t up to par, but there are no decisions to be made here.

Keep Bowers. Start Bowers. Think of a creative team name around Bowers.

He’s as good as it gets at the position and is good for eight or more looks per week.

Cade Otton | TB (vs NYJ)

If you’ve been reading this piece for the past year or two, my thoughts on Cade Otton are clear and simple.

Useless.

I’m sure he’s a nice person, but for our game, I couldn’t be less interested. His route count always gets mentioned when we get into bye weeks, and you need a filler.

“He’ll be on the field, and that’s a good start.”

Conceptually, yes, that tracks. But when the man is averaging 0.34 yards per route this season, does it matter? The loss of Chris Godwin up to this point hasn’t pointed Baker Mayfield in Otton’s direction any more this year than last, and I expect that to continue.

If you start typing a “Do I play Otton or ___” question to me on Twitter (at KyleSoppPFN), you can save yourself the time.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs IND)

I’ve probably said it half a dozen times already in this piece, but while the foundation that Cam Ward is laying is reason for optimism in Tennessee, we are talking about a process more than a quick fix.

Chig Okonkwo has hauled in seven of 10 targets this season, and I love seeing that level of efficiency with a rookie under center. Still, his 54 yards aren’t cutting it, and considering that the Titans have managed just 31 points up to this point, I don’t expect a sudden surge in touchdown equity to tip the scales in his favor.

The Titans host the Saints in Week 17, and if you told me that Ward was in the middle of a 2024 Bryce Young-type of finish, we might be having a “do I stream him for my championship” conversation. But that’s a talk to have around Christmas, not six weeks before Halloween.

If you drafted Okonkwo, you’re in the streaming boat with probably a quarter of your league mates. He’s not a top-15 play for me at the position this week or for the remainder of the season.

Cole Kmet | CHI (vs DAL)

Cole Kmet is currently winning the race to the top of the TE depth chart in Chicago, but if you’re asking questions about who the tight end is for the Bears, well, you’re asking the wrong questions.
Through two weeks, he’s played 43 more snaps and run 20 more routes than Colston Loveland, turning the surprising splits into nine fantasy points.

Total.

This is about as good as I see his role getting this season, and he’s done next to nothing with it, so I see no reason why you should be the least bit interested moving forward, regardless of format.

Colston Loveland | CHI (vs DAL)

Neither tight end in the Windy City has been busy enough to justify starting, and if it weren’t for the draft pedigree, I’m not sure Colston Loveland would be on any roster in a standard setting.

With Rome Odunze amidst a breakout, DJ Moore still earning volume, and an offense that has some growing pains to work through, there’s simply not enough production for the talented rookie to soak up.

Loveland has earned three targets through two games and can be dropped in all redraft formats given his position. If he were a rookie receiver struggling out of the gates (i.e., Matthew Golden in Green Bay), I’d have more patience. But at a one-off position, there’s no time to operate with caution.

We can revisit his value if he proves himself worthy of such a discussion, but we are currently a long way away from that.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs LAR)

A knee sprain had been bugging Dallas Goedert for much of last week, and it became apparent that he wasn’t going to be able to suit up for the Super Bowl rematch on Sunday.

He was very involved in the Week 1 win over the Cowboys (11.4 PPR points and a 35% target share), but the fact that the 30-year-old was unable to shake off this injury during an extended work week is worrisome.

Not only did the Eagles not really need the pass game, let alone the tight end position, on Sunday (two positional targets), but Goedert is one DNP from missing multiple games for a sixth consecutive season. We are talking about an essential piece to a real-life winner, but one that you can likely do better than in a fantasy sense.

You can hold for now to see how this week of practice goes, and maybe you have room to roster two tight ends, given the construction of your league. But I’m not sold that, as bye weeks approach and injuries inevitably ramp up, that Goedert will be a must-roster player in a month.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs MIA)

Dalton Kincaid is an involved third-year player on a potent offense that lacks high-end targets to compete with.

On paper, I love it.

In reality, less so.

We’ve cleared 600 days without a 55-yard game from the 2023 first-round pick, and given how effective this team is running the ball inside the 10-yard line, there’s not as much touchdown equity as you’d want to assume, given the raw scoring numbers of this offense.

Against the Jets on Sunday, he led the Bills in targets (six) and catches (four): we got 37 yards from him.

If you’re treating the tight end position like your D/ST and simply playing the matchup game, I could see going this direction on a short week against a porous Dolphins bunch. That’s fine, but attaching yourself to him as anything more than a week-to-week option is something I won’t endorse.

David Njoku | CLE (vs GB)

David Njoku has cleared an 80% snap share and seen at least five passes thrown his way in both games this season, usage metrics that sound stronger than they are.

The playing time is great to see, don’t get me wrong, but 11 targets on 80 routes isn’t great, and with Harold Fant Jr. outproducing him in both games on fewer snaps, the arrow isn’t exactly pointing up.

That said, there is some roster safety here. Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman are Cleveland’s two receivers, and then you have these two tight ends: that’s essentially the entire rotation of pass catchers.

The running backs will be involved, but in terms of depth on this team, there really isn’t much, which leads me to believe that these two-TE sets are here to stay.

If a quarterback change happens, all bets are off because I think the raw volume dips in a major way (90 passes thrown through two weeks). Until then, though, I think both Njoku and Fant are low-end viable options, especially in a spot like this where Cleveland projects to be playing from behind.

Evan Engram | DEN (at LAC)

We can give Evan Engram credit for playing through a calf injury, but unless I’m missing something and his points are multiplied by a grittiness factor, Week 2 was a tough showing.
While he ran 10 more routes than Adam Trautman, he earned one fewer target and wasn’t an option in the red zone. I’d blame the injury, but he wasn’t holding a full-time role pre-injury in Week 1, and that has me seriously worried about my pro-Engram stances this offseason.

Is Bo Nix in danger of a C.J. Stroud-like sophomore season? He’s played well for one of four halves this season, and if he is, Engram is going to struggle to return startable value at the position.

I’m holding for now, potentially out of stubbornness. The tight end position isn’t pretty as you move down the ranks, and with the Chargers on a shortened week this week and then an extra day to prepare for the Bengals on Monday night, Engram has two more chances to show me something before I file for divorce.

George Kittle | SF (vs ARI)

George Kittle was doing George Kittle things until he decided to do less fun George Kittle things in the Week 1 win over the Seahawks.

Early on, he caught all four of his targets and scored on an extension play to the pylon, where he flexed his athleticism and awareness. When he’s right, he’s as good as it gets at the position.

The problem is that we almost always have to navigate injuries, and that is already the case in 2024.

Kittle has played the full slate of games just once in his eight-year career and is now nursing a hamstring injury that landed him on IR ahead of Week 2, ruling him out through Week 5 at the very least.

What causes Kittle to miss time is the same mindset that makes him an elite option when active. I’m banking on him returning to take on the Buccaneers in Week 6 (for those keeping track at home, this would give him two weeks to work his way into form before National Tight End Day) and offer the type of strong production we’ve come to know and love.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (vs GB)

The rookie is impressing, and the Browns are clearly interested in embracing it.

Harold Fannin Jr. is leading David Njoku in all categories and has hauled in 12 of his 14 targets through two weeks. The volume numbers in Cleveland as a whole appear unsustainable at first glance, but unless you believe this team will be competitive moving forward, I’m not sure how out of line things are.

Njoku saw the first target of Week 2 (six-yard gain), and Fannin was there for the second. This is a two-TE system that provides a pair of streaming options with promising upside.

The concern is simple: these two tight ends have combined for two targets inside the opponent’s 30-yard line. The limitations on valuable looks will make it hard for either of these two to move into the lineup lock tier.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs DET)

Isaiah Likely underwent surgery in July on a broken foot bone, resulting in no real ramping-up period for the season. At this moment, his status for Week 3 is unclear after missing the season opener, but with all 32 teams in action this week, why would you roll the dice on a player whose role isn’t 100% clear even when 100% healthy?

A player like Likely is the difference between shallow and deep leagues. I have no patience for an injured asset entering the season unless you have access to an IR slot for him. If that’s the case, you have nothing to lose. If not, what do you have to gain?

In deep leagues, however, Likely is close to a must-stash. He posted a 39.5% snap share in 2022, earned a promotion to 43.9% in 2023, and saw it spike to 60.3% in Year 3. He’s an impactful talent in an explosive offense, and that’s a profile that I don’t mind stashing over a WR7 type that I see so many deeper league rosters sit on.

If your WR7 is hitting your lineup, your ship has already sunk. At the tight end position, a player like Likely can bust into the TE1 conversation without outlier production, and that is why I want exposure to him.

That said, he’s reached double-digit PPR points just twice in his career when not playing at least half of the offensive snaps. There’s more risk than reward for a profile like that on a team that has an eye on the big picture at all times (68 wins since the beginning of 2019, the third most in the league), but there is also long-term appeal to a young player whose talent is obvious.

Stash if you have the room, and if you don’t have the space right now, don’t be shy about pouncing when we see signs of full health.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs ATL)

I was hellbent on identifying the second most trusted target in Carolina this offseason and came up empty for the most part.

Coker had my interest, but then he went down. Xavier Legette’s profile was appealing, but he hardly did anything down the stretch of last season when Bryce Young was at the peak of his powers.

That resulted in me bumping Ja’Tavion Sanders up my ranks above the industry norm, thinking that targets might fall into his lap and that his athletic profile could capitalize on them.

We saw signs of life last week in a frantic game with the Cardinals as Sanders ended with seven catches on nine targets for 54 yards. Not an overwhelming stat line, but suitable.
He currently ranks sixth at the position in average depth of target, and I think that’s how you play this situation. Sanders doesn’t need to be rostered right now, but when we get into the flow of bye weeks and you feel like you can absorb some risk in replacing your mediocre tight end, look this way.

Carolina is going to be crawling from behind more often than not, and that puts a player like Sanders in a position to deliver a spike week. They play the Bills, Packers, and Falcons in four weeks during the middle of the season, all spots where Young could be asked to throw the ball 35+ times.

Don’t add him, there’s no need. Just check back when your starter is on bye.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (at CHI)

I can’t prove this, but I’m going to call Jake Ferguson’s 9-78-0 showing on Sunday against the Giants the quietest 12-target game in recent memory.

The stat line is great, but I watched the majority of that game and never once thought he was having an elite afternoon.

The chaotic nature of that game, not to mention overtime, indeed resulted in the ballooning of some stat lines, and Ferguson is no exception. That said, he was Dallas’ top target man and has out-earned George Pickens in both games to open this season.

The upside isn’t there (13 of his 18 targets this season have come on his own half of the field), but this is an offense that is a good bet to rank among the PPOE leaders, thus keeping his volume-based game stable.

I’ve got him as my TE10 for Week 3, and I’ll have him within a few spots of that mark every week regardless of his matchup.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (at NE)

The tight end position is a pain to discuss, and RBBC is a headache to sort through, so what fantasy manager is signing up for the hybrid of those two situations?

I’m not.

Jonnu Smith is ranked ahead of Pat Freiermuth for me because I believe him to have more YAC potential, and that schemed-up touchdown in Week 1 still sticks with me, but Freiermuth has the trust of this staff and has caught six of seven passes thrown his way this season.

No Rodgers offense is going to operate with tempo, and with Metcalf profiling as the unquestioned top target, there’s no room for a tight end committee.

As a matchup, the Patriots don’t scare me. But if you’re telling me I have to split six to eight targets amongst two tight ends, I’m telling you that I’d rather take my chances on a higher volume situation (i.e., Cleveland) or a single TE room (i.e., Buffalo and New England).

Juwan Johnson | NO (at SEA)

Did we waste too much time this summer arguing about which receiver in New Orleans would be able to overcome the QB situation and not enough evaluating a one-size position that naturally comes with a lower bar to clear in terms of impacting fantasy lineups?

Juwan Johnson had a few concentration drops early on Sunday, but Spencer Rattler kept going his way and trusted him with a contested target in the end zone.

Touchdown.

Since 2010, a TE has opened a season with 9+ targets in consecutive games while playing for a 0-2 team six times. Johnson and Jimmy Graham (2012 and 2014) account for half of those instances (the others: 2013 Brandon Myers, 2019 Greg Olsen, and 2021 TJ Hockenson).

Maybe it’s the voodoo of the Saints?

I really don’t care what it is. Until we see usage come off of his plate, I’m comfortable in assuming it’ll be there, and that means top-10 status in PPR leagues. Johnson and Trey McBride are currently tied atop the TE leaderboard for longest active 5+ catch streak (four,) and that level of volume is impossible to find at the position.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (at CAR)

Kyle Pitts came through on his leg of the primetime SGP (sign up for the PFSN Betting Newsletter that hits your inbox every gameday morning: profootballnetwork.com/nfl), and I think the volume sticks given his usage in this Michael Penix-led system.

For the first time in recent memory, Pitts is being used as a … wait for it … a tight end. Atlanta has spent so much energy trying to convince us that he’s a Jimmy Graham hybrid type that they’ve forgotten why they drafted him in the first place.

To do tight end things!

Pitts’ athletic profile isn’t as unique for a receiver as it is for a tight end. His agility at his size makes him a tough cover in short-yardage situations, but the further you move him from the wall (a la, WR usage), the less you lean into that strength.

Through two weeks, eight of Pitts’ 11 receptions have come no more than five yards down the field, and as long as the Falcons stick to that plan, I think we are looking at a plus athlete with a high floor.

There will be a game here and there where he does something special with the ball in his hands and reminds us of what is possible given his profile. Until that happens, this role is perfect for both Atlanta and fantasy managers alike: move the chains and rack up cheap PPR points.

Pitts is a top-10 tight end for Week 3 for me, and he holds that same status when looking at the rest of 2025.

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs DET)

This is getting ugly in a hurry, and the closer we get to an Isaiah Likely season debut, the more skeptical I get about Andrews being a fantasy starter past Halloween.

Much like the Eagles, these potent but low-volume offenses aren’t ideal for us. The problem? They are great for the NFL team deploying them, so why change?

Andrews had more targets than yards against the Browns last week and has gained 22.2% of his yards this season on the ground. He had a chance to calm our nerves for at least a week had he held onto a six-yard touchdown on Sunday, but he had it punched out and left us with another sub-2-point performance despite playing 79.2% of the offensive snaps (26 routes run).

The Ravens have scored 40+ points in both games this season, and Andrews has been a ghost: what happens when moving the ball gets difficult?

Likely is the more explosive player when at full strength, and I suspect we see that sooner than later. Lamar Jackson is a great player, but it’s pretty clear that he trusts one player right now (Zay Flowers: 42.6% target share) and in a run-centric system, that is enough to render everyone else useless.

The Browns are on the opposite side of that spectrum, as they have a quantity of attempts on their side, not quality. I’d rather speculate on either of their tight ends right now than hope for a return of the good old days from Andrews.

Mike Gesicki | CIN (at MIN)

Mike Gesicki is used like a receiver in that he’s not used as a blocker. That’s important to note because we tend to view the “used like a receiver” label to mean he’s worth our time.

Gesicki has just four scores over the past 2+ seasons (36 games played) and 32 yards on his 2022 ledger. This offense is going to look different under Jake Browning, that goes without saying, and I think it’s fringe pieces like this (or maybe Chase Brown’s target share) that suffer most.

The Cincinnati attack is centered around their two star receivers, and while those looks might look different, I don’t think they get distributed differently. Gesicki is off my streaming radar and isn’t even the type I’m looking at in a punt-TE DFS build for tournament play.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at NE)

Pat Freiermuth narrowed the snap gap with Jonnu Smith in Week 2 and actually ran more routes than the former Dolphin, but he’s recorded fewer receptions in both games. He is looking at the negative aspects of a committee in a democratic offense.

In Week 2’s loss to the Seahawks, six different Steelers earned 4-6 targets, and it’s clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts both Smith and DK Metcalf in scoring situations over Friermuth.

He’s a reliable target that will remain on the field in this trust-based scheme, but his impact in our game is more of an annoyance to Smith managers than anything else. If this TE committee were to shrink to a one-man show for any reason, you’d be able to sell me on that player as a top-12 option at the position, but without that, neither is getting inside of my top 15.

Sam LaPorta | DET (at BAL)

The Lions got their brains beaten in by the Packers in Week 1 and took their disappointment out against the Bears over the weekend. We are two games into this new offensive era in Detroit, but I’m not sure how much we’ve learned due to two wonky game scripts.

I don’t think the Ravens do to the Lions what the Packers did, but I expect this game to be a tight one that teaches us exactly who this offense is. LaPorta was featured in the loss (6-79-0) and muted in the win (3-24-0), netting out okay numbers thus far, albeit in a maddening fashion.

I’m still bullish on LaPorta and, given the production at the position up to this point, view him as a pretty comfortable weekly asset. Jameson Williams’ target earning remains hit-and-miss, but the gravity he provides helps open up LaPorta for what I expect to be, with time, a high-floor, low-ceiling type of role.

He’s averaging four point five catches and fifty-two point five yards through two weeks, and while I’d lean slightly over both of those numbers in this spot, I think that’s probably a reasonable baseline to start at most weeks.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs CIN)

I’m willing to acknowledge that we know nothing about this Minnesota passing game, but that’s not going to stop me from feeling some sort of way about Jalen Nailor having more targets and yards through two weeks than T.J. Hockenson.

Week 1 was J.J. McCarthy’s NFL debut, and last weekend was a game on short rest after becoming a father for the young QB, so yeah, it’s been an emotional start for a position that rewards poise and calmness.

Things will get better, but this was a serious spot for Hockenson to establish himself as McCarthy’s favorite non-Justin Jefferson target with Jordan Addison suspended, and that clearly hasn’t happened.

His aDOT (4.6 yards) is 54% of what it was last season and, long-term, I think that’s a win. Those shorter targets increase the efficiency projections, and that’s gold when working with a new quarterback.

It may limit his upside a bit, but after this week, defenses are going to have to deal with Jefferson and Addison threatening them vertically, and that should make life easier in the middle of the field for Hockenson.

It’s been an ugly start, but there is nothing actionable to do ahead of this plus-matchup: you’re starting him and not tying up a second roster spot with another TE.

Travis Kelce | KC (at NYG)

The offense as a whole is struggling in Kansas City, and Travis Kelce certainly didn’t help things in the Super Bowl rematch with a drop that turned into a pick.

That single play is getting all of the attention, but he and Patrick Mahomes missed on a red zone play in Week 1 that they connect on in their sleep. Something is just a tick off with Kansas City right now, and given the lack of versatility on the offensive side of the ball, it really shouldn’t be that surprising.

Mahomes is great, and he’s kept them in two games against very strong competition with little help from his teammates on the field (the defense is doing its job, but no one on offense is playing to their baseline).

I’ve been out on Kelce for years under the premise that when I need him most, the Chiefs need him the least. That was the stance I took again this preseason, but with them sitting at 0-2, the odds of any December coasting are vanishing in short order.

Kelce is healthy and playing plenty. Mahomes is healthy and operating a high pass-rate over expectation offense as usual. I actually fall on the buy-the-dip side of the Kelce argument, but more for the second half of the season.

I have him ranked as a fringe TE1 this week, and if you want to slow-play your acquisition for him, I’m good with that. This offense will look different once Rashee Rice returns (Week 7), and a moderately healthy Xavier Worthy wouldn’t hurt either.

The Chiefs have built up a lot of goodwill over the years, but if the Kelce manager is frustrated and winless, why not turn on the charm and see where the conversation goes?

Trey McBride | ARI (at SF)

While the tight end position crumbles around him, Trey McBride just continues to churn out value.

He’s now caught at least six passes in four straight games (and eight of nine) and appears poised to do something even the great Travis Kelce never has: record consecutive 100-catch seasons.

We’d love for him to score more often (yet to see an end zone target in 2022, but he did earn nine last season, something that gets overlooked quite a bit), but that’s like saying you want Brad Pitt to score a 1550 on the SATs.

We can ask for everything, but we can also be thrilled with what we have, and what we have in McBride is a head start essentially every week. The Cards close the fantasy season with the Falcons and Bengals, so if there ever was a time for him to access his production ceiling, it might well come at the perfect time!

Tucker Kraft | GB (at CLE)

Well, that was impressive!

Tucker Kraft stole the show on Thursday night, posting the first 100-yard game of his career and looking the part of a difference maker throughout Green Bay’s win over Washington.

Tucker Kraft is giving off the Young George Kittle vibes tonight.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 12, 2025

High praise, but is he wrong?

Kraft leads this team in routes, has moved the chains on 75% of his catches, and has a 33.3% red zone target share through two weeks.

Yes, of course, we are only two weeks in, but with Jayden Reed (collarbone) potentially out for the next two months, what is standing in the way of Kraft posting top-5 numbers at the position?

Jordan Love is playing with as much confidence as he has at any point in his career, and Kraft is his most reliable pass catcher. You can overthink the target distribution all you want, I’m not. Kraft is a top-5 player at the position for the remainder of the season for me, and that means you get elite value in selecting him around pick number 100 this summer.

Tyler Warren | IND (at TEN)

Most people experience a change in their level of work as it increases.

You go to college, and your day-to-day changes. You’re living life on your schedule and have to adjust.

You get a promotion at work, and you’re looked at differently. Your sleep schedule may change due to a change in responsibilities.

You have kids, and your idea of a fun Saturday completely changes.

Big-time life events typically require you to change.

Unless you’re Tyler Warren. If you’re Tyler Warren, you treat the professional game the same way you did the collegiate one and simply impose your will upon the defense.

Warren impressed with a 7-76-0 debut against the Dolphins, but we were cautious because #Dolphins. But what happens when he leads the team in receiving yards and targets against a Broncos defense that we universally label as elite?

He’s earning looks at an elite rate, and Indy has even handed him the ball in both games. Who knows where this Daniel Jones heater goes, but who are we to say that Warren isn’t situation-proof? The jump from Penn State to the Colts hasn’t affected him. Why would some QB inconsistencies kill his vibes?

I don’t think they would.

He’s a top-5 tight end for me this week, this season, and probably for the remainder of the 2020s. His physical approach, along with attention to detail, is hard to find, and without an alpha pass catcher otherwise on this roster to demand looks, I see no reason to regress this role moving forward.

After decades of next to nothing coming from rookie tight ends, we’ve seen a game-breaker emerge in three straight seasons.

Zach Ertz | WAS (vs LV)

Zach Ertz’s skill set is far from exciting (we are more than three seasons removed from his last 40-yard catch), but his old man game just continues to impact fantasy box scores.

He’s scored in both games this year, four straight regular season games, and has found pay dirt eight times in his past nine games. We all want to get exposure to this offense, and we all believe in the long-term trajectory of Jayden Daniels, so what is stopping us from locking in Ertz until further notice?

Entering the week, he was roughly 50% available across the industry. That needs to change, especially given the health issues we’ve had at the position to open the season.

I’m not suggesting he’s a league winner, but I do think the floor is elevated and his role is reasonably matchup-proof. There are a variety of intriguing late-season matchups for Washington, but at the very least, assuming health, won’t you be assuming top-10 production against the Cowboys on Christmas Day when your fantasy championship is being decided?

Older players are typically considered bad until proven good, which is how I approach things. Ertz has done enough to get the benefit of the doubt moving forward — more than enough.