Chargers RB Fantasy Outlook: Should You Draft Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Kimani Vidal

The Los Angeles Chargers are entering a new era for the franchise under head coach Jim Harbaugh, bringing about a makeover in the running back room as well.

Austin Ekeler is gone, and both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins left Baltimore to join the Chargers. They’ll be backed up by rookie running back Kimani Vidal.

This is a difficult season to predict for the team as a whole, so fantasy football managers will need to decide if anyone from this backfield is worth adding to their roster.

Let’s examine the fantasy outlook for Edwards, Dobbins, and Vidal in 2024.

Gus Edwards’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 178.6 (171.6 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 953.9
• Rushing Touchdowns: 10.9
• Receptions: 7.0
• Receiving Yards: 105.5
• Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1

Technically, Edwards is coming off the best season of his career, averaging a career-high 11.0 fantasy points per game. However, it was largely predicated on volume. Edwards ran the ball 198 times for 810 yards, both career-highs, but his 4.1 yards per carry marked the first year of his career below 5.0.

The sole reason Edwards finished inside the top 36 running backs was because of touchdowns. From the start of his career in 2018 through the conclusion of the 2022 season, Edwards scored 13 touchdowns. In 2023 alone, Edwards scored 13 touchdowns. Other than that, Edwards was the same player he’s always been.

Edwards doesn’t make defenders miss, as evidenced by his evaded-tackles-per-touch rate outside the top 50. His 2.95 yards created per touch were 45th in the league. It’s a bit hard to understand how Edwards even performed as well as he did, as the Ravens’ offensive line provided him with a mere 1.6 yards before contact.

Edwards is the exact type of back head coach Jim Harbaugh wants. Harbaugh’s offenses have always been effective at running the ball. According to NBC Sports’ Denny Carter, Harbaugh’s 49ers teams ranked 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th in pass attempts, respectively, from 2011-2014. His last two Michigan teams ranked 117th and 121st, respectively, out of 130 teams in pass rate.

It’s hard to see a ton of upside with Edwards, as he does not catch passes. Last season, his target share was a whopping 2.8%. His 12 receptions last season actually marked a career-high tally.

It’s unclear who the Chargers’ passing down back will be, but rest assured it won’t be Edwards. Nevertheless, there is potential for him to outperform his RB37 ADP, No. 112 overall.

– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst

J.K. Dobbins’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 135.1 (117.3 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 538.0
• Rushing Touchdowns: 7.7
• Receptions: 17.8
• Receiving Yards: 125.2
• Receiving Touchdowns: 0.8

It is perfectly reasonable to blindly fade Dobbins. He’s been available for under 36% of the possible regular season games during his career and is now part of a backfield that may lack star power but also has two other capable options that could easily out-touch him when everyone is active.

Understanding the risk, isn’t this exactly the type of risk we should be taking in the second half of drafts? A talented player with youth on his side (25 years old) and a legitimate opportunity to earn an increase in his role on the field as opposed to requiring an injury to ascend up the depth chart?

From a pure strategy point of view, that profile, at the very least, should come off the board before all D/STs, but that’s not currently the case. That profile should be taken before backups at the onesie positions, but that’s not currently the case.

The expectation is for this offense to run through the ground game. Jim Harbaugh showed us conservative offensive tendencies during his time in Michigan and all of their movement this offseason (moving on from Keenan Allen/Mike Williams and drafting Joe Alt over the high-pedigree receivers that were available) indicates more of the same is to come in his return to the NFL.

Last season, of the six running backs that ran for at least a dozen touchdowns, half of them (Raheem Mostert, David Montgomery, and Derrick Henry) had a teammate who was also, at the very least, on our radars. Edwards deserves to be penciled in as the short-yardage back on this offense, but due to his limitations and decline in efficiency last season, that doesn’t exclude Vidal or Dobbins from being roster-worthy.

– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst

Kimani Vidal’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 115.7 (101.1 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 629.9
• Rushing Touchdowns: 3.5
• Receptions: 14.6
• Receiving Yards: 146.3
• Receiving Touchdowns: 0.4

Vidal plays with an exceptionally low center of gravity and has great synergy between his feet and hips, which helps him weave through traffic with crisp, efficient jump cuts and work through contact. He has excellent patience and flashes of good vision, reliable pass-catching chops, and is a willing combatant in pass protection.

During Vidal’s final year at Troy, he produced 1,661 rushing yards in his senior year, which was good for second among all FBS running backs. The Trojans’ offense ran through Vidal, and he consistently delivered the goods.

Yet Vidal’s Day 3 draft capital doesn’t exactly scream that he was a highly coveted back entering the NFL.

Fortunately, Vidal fell into a great spot from both a competition and scheme fit standpoint.

Vidal will have to make a positive impression on the staff to make the roster, but if he manages to flash when given opportunities early in his rookie year, it is not outside the range of outcomes for him to see an expanded role as the season progresses.

Vidal’s ADP at No. 152 overall in the 13th round as the RB60 overall makes sense for a Day 3 rookie back who hasn’t shown us very much through camp. For some additional context, he is going in the same range as Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Khalil Herbert, and Braelon Allen.

– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst