For his entire career, Los Angeles Chargers RB Gus Edwards has been a solid, reliable back who gets what’s blocked. If he continues to do so as the lead back in Jim Harbaugh’s RB-friendly system, could Edwards end up being a nice value in 2024 fantasy football drafts?
Gus Edwards’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s a bit alarming how many lead running backs are 28+ years old this season. Perhaps the most surprising one is Edwards.
While Edwards has always been a useful running back, becoming a clear lead back at the age of 29 wasn’t exactly what anyone expected. Yet, here we are.
Technically, Edwards is coming off the best season of his career, averaging a career-high 11.0 fantasy points per game. However, it was largely predicated on volume. Edwards ran the ball 198 times for 810 yards, both career-highs, but his 4.1 yards per carry marked the first year of his career below 5.0.
The sole reason Edwards finished inside the top 36 running backs was because of touchdowns. From the start of his career in 2018 through the conclusion of the 2022 season, Edwards scored 13 touchdowns. In 2023, alone, Edwards scored 13 touchdowns. Other than that, Edwards was the same player he’s always been.
Edwards doesn’t make defenders miss, as evidenced by his evaded-tackles-per-touch rate outside the top 50. His 2.95 yards created per touch were 45th in the league. It’s a bit hard to understand how Edwards even performed as well as he did, as the Ravens’ offensive line provided him with a mere 1.6 yards before contact.
Edwards is the exact type of back head coach Jim Harbaugh wants. Harbaugh’s offenses have always been effective at running the ball. According to NBC Sports’ Denny Carter, Harbaugh’s 49ers teams ranked 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th in pass attempts, respectively, from 2011-2014. His last two Michigan teams ranked 117th and 121st, respectively, out of 130 teams in pass rate.
It’s hard to see a ton of upside with Edwards, as he does not catch passes. Last season, his target share was a whopping 2.8%. His 12 receptions last season actually marked a career-high tally.
It’s unclear who the Chargers’ passing down back will be, but rest assured it won’t be Edwards. Nevertheless, there is potential for him to outperform his RB37 ADP, No. 112 overall.
Edwards averaged 11.6 carries per game last season. That number may very well be 14-15 this season. Furthermore, it’s not unreasonable to think he can perform similarly in the touchdown department. That would be enough to at least make Edwards worth his cost in fantasy drafts.
The real issue with Edwards is there’s no real path to him being a difference-maker unless he has a Raheem Mostert-like 20-touchdown season.
I have Edwards ranked as my RB35, right in line with consensus. In situations where I need a warm body at running back who won’t get me zero, Edwards is a fine pick. But, in general, we want to chase the upside, especially later in drafts. Fantasy managers should view Edwards as a guy to draft if he falls to you in the right spot but not necessarily someone to aggressively pursue.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Analysis for Gus Edwards
Edwards’ current ADP at No. 116 overall in the 10th round as the RB38 off the board is certainly a very reasonable price for a player who likely has the inside track to a leading role in a Chargers offense that has been productive in the Herbert era and wants to run the ball in 2024.
Unfortunately, his lack of explosiveness and limitations as a pass-catching threat could make him vulnerable to either losing a significant amount of work or losing his leading role this season.
The upside is certainly present at the current price point, but I wouldn’t want to enter the year relying on RB2 production from Edwards in 2024.