Los Angeles Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins impressed during his rookie season as a second-round pick out of Ohio State (925 total yards with nine touchdowns in 15 games for the Baltimore Ravens), but it’s been a battle to stay on the field ever since.
From 2021-23, he’s appeared in just nine games and enters 2024 coming off of a torn Achilles, a career-ender for many professional athletes. That said, offseason reports have positioned him as healthy, and without a bona fide star leading this Chargers backfield, is Dobbins worth a late flier (11th round) of fantasy football drafts?
J.K. Dobbins’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It is perfectly reasonable to blindly fade Dobbins. He’s been available for under 36% of the possible regular season games during his career and is now part of a backfield that may lack star power but also has two other capable options that could easily out-touch him when everyone is active (Gus Edwards and rookie Kimani Vidal).
JK Dobbins with the leap into the end zone pic.twitter.com/G9jAWmFX4n
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) September 10, 2023
Understanding the risk, isn’t this exactly the type of risk we should be taking in the second half of drafts? A talented player with youth on his side (25 years old) and a legitimate opportunity to earn an increase in his role on the field as opposed to requiring an injury to ascend up the depth chart?
From a pure strategy point of view, that profile, at the very least, should come off the board before all D/STs, but that’s not currently the case. That profile should be taken before backups at the onesie positions, but that’s not currently the case.
The expectation is for this offense to run through the ground game. Jim Harbaugh showed us conservative offensive tendencies during his time in Michigan and all of their movement this offseason (moving on from Keenan Allen/Mike Williams and drafting Joe Alt over the high-pedigree receivers that were available) indicates more of the same is to come in his return to the NFL.
Last season, of the six running backs that ran for at least a dozen touchdowns, half of them (Raheem Mostert, David Montgomery, and Derrick Henry) had a teammate who was also, at the very least, on our radars. Edwards deserves to be penciled in as the short-yardage back on this offense, but due to his limitations and decline in efficiency last season, that doesn’t exclude Vidal or Dobbins from being roster-worthy.
If I had to pick a back in this backfield, it would be Vidal. At Troy last season, he proved plenty capable of handling bell-cow work (315 touches), a role that he could certainly earn when it matters most for fantasy managers.
Pro Football Network Analyst Derek Tate highlighted these as a few of the encouraging strengths in the rookie’s profile:
- Plays with an exceptionally low center of gravity; strings together multiple quick jump cuts with ease.
- Contact balance is top tier; regularly sheds or dismisses the first defender with strong leg drive and play strength to maximize yards after contact.
- Hip fluidity and balance are evident when forced to bend at awkward angles with his lower half after contact.
- Physical runner who isn’t afraid to initiate contact with oncoming defenders.
- Patience as a runner is a plus; willing to let the play develop in front of him while he reads the leverage of defenders and presses the hole before shooting through small openings in traffic.
- Efficient footwork helps him maintain a strong base and reactive quickness.
While I like Vidal, the fact that I can’t say with confidence where the lead role is going in Los Angeles makes all three of these backs roster-worthy. This isn’t one of those situations where I’m drafting multiple RBs in hopes of cashing in (something I’d do for the Cincinnati Bengals backfield, for example), but it is one that I want exposure to.
I expect the Chargers to be a work in progress under Harbaugh, and that’s fine. Barring an injury, we aren’t entering the season with the expectation that any of these running backs will be in our starting lineups. The Bolts have consecutive home games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos in Weeks 15-16 — that stretch alone makes a lottery ticket worth purchasing in this backfield.
This is the optimal roll of the dice to take — a low-risk, high-reward move. This time last season, Edwards wasn’t consistently being drafted while both Miami Dolphins running backs were selected outside of the top 110 overall players.
Knowing what you don’t know is important in fantasy drafts and, the truth is, we don’t really know how the touch distribution in Los Angeles is going to look in Week 1, let alone when all the chips are in the middle of the table this winter.
We know that Dobbins has talent and if he has health, it’s not a hard case to make at this ADP. I’m not saying with my chest that he needs to be rostered, but I do feel strongly about taking a shot in some fashion on this run-centric offense as part of a cost-analysis play.
Derek Tate’s Dobbins Fantasy Outlook
Dobbins’ ADP at No. 130 overall in the 11th round (RB42) feels criminal in some regards, given the flashes of talent we’ve seen.
For some additional context, he’s currently being drafted after players like Blake Corum, Jerome Ford, and Chase Brown. No offense to those other players, but they are firmly behind a bell-cow back in their respective situations.
Even more surprising is that Dobbins is going five rounds later than Edwards and a full three rounds later than Vidal in fantasy drafts right now. The durability concerns are valid, but this Chargers’ backfield situation feels pretty wide open heading into the 2024 season.
If Dobbins can manage to stay healthy ( a big if), there’s an argument to be made he’s the most dynamic option Harbaugh has to spearhead this rushing attack. At this price point, he feels like one of the best lottery tickets in fantasy drafts.