The Group of Five playoff rankings have been completely shaken up, and we now have a much clearer picture with many teams knocking themselves out of contention. Using PFSN’s very own College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we determined the probability of making the playoffs for the top teams in the Group of Five. The American Conference still remains the conference to beat.
8) UNLV Rebels
- PFSN FPM Probability: 2.1%
If we were going purely based on Week 0 and Week 1, I would think that the UNLV Rebels would have no business being on this list. They were in an absolute dogfight with an FCS team in Idaho and have had more than their fair share of quarterback troubles this season. However, heading into Week 7 at 5-0, Dan Mullen’s team has overcome expectations and a roster overhaul to emerge as the favorite to win the Mountain West (28.9%).
The luck finally ran out as the UNLV Rebels were killed in the second half against Boise State. The Rebels allowed Boise to go on a 21-0 run to open the third quarter, which effectively ended their chances of making the playoffs, given how much they have struggled with close games against inferior opponents. These things matter when the margins are thin.
7) Boise State Broncos
- PFSN FPM Probability: 4.9%
As predicted, a Boise State Broncos’ loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 6 has impacted their College Football Playoff potential, with the PFSN FPM now only giving the preseason favorite to reach the postseason tournament just a 5.0% chance of repeating their feat from last fall. Spencer Danielson’s team has had issues on both sides of the ball, failing to replicate the magic of 2024 despite a talented roster.
Even after a convincing win over the Rebels, the Broncos still only remain at just 4.9%. They would need to win out which is definitely doable with a 108th-ranked remaining strength of schedule according to our impact metrics.
6) Memphis Tigers
- PFSN FPM Probability: 5.0%
After cruising to a 6-0 start and becoming the first team to be bowl eligible in the 2025 college football season, the Memphis Tigers have completely blown things in a game they were expected to and probably should have won. After an injury to quarterback Brendon Lewis, the Tigers now have a tiny chance of making the playoffs.
The expected challenges on their schedule were supposed to come later in the season, so a loss to UAB completely derails the journey. Even still, their remaining strength of schedule is 71st in the FBS, which suggests it’s not entirely over yet.
5) North Texas Mean Green
- PFSN FPM Probability: 7.5%
North Texas is similar to Memphis in that it has everything set out in front of it. A win over the South Florida Bulls with the nation watching was a surefire way to put them in a favorable spot with the committee while also having little else left to play on their schedule.
Unfortunately, that dream is now over after an absolute shellacking. They were able to bounce back with a 55-17 win over UTSA, but the vibes just aren’t the same. The Mean Green would need a lot of things to roll their way if they want to go dancing.
RELATED: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
4) James Madison
- PFSN FPM Probability: 13.4%
The James Madison Dukes were one of my favorite sleeper picks for the playoffs entering the season. According to TruMedia, the Dukes rank third in field position margin thanks to a defense that ranks 19th in our Impact score with a B+ on the season. The Dukes’ offense has had some ugly games that resulted in them completely relying on the defense to keep them afloat, but they are still alive.
Better yet, their dominating performance over Old Dominion, 63-27, really looks good on the resume, considering how the Monarchs had been playing up until that point. Their defense gives them a high ceiling in our projections, with their national championship appearance chances at a very respectable 19% (38th of 136 FBS teams).
3) Navy Midshipmen
- PFSN FPM Probability: 17.8%
Anchored by quarterback Blake Horvath, the Navy Midshipmen have PFSN’s 14th-ranked offense, and that should earn them some style points when it comes to the College Football Playoff rankings eye test. Their path to the playoffs will likely hinge (assuming everything else goes right) on how close they can keep it against Notre Dame.
I don’t think Navy wins by any means, but even a one or two possession game should keep them alive. If it results in a blowout like last season, I think it’s pretty much over for the Midshipmen.
2) Tulane Green Wave
- PFSN FPM Probability: 24.3%
Despite a lopsided loss to Ole Miss, the Tulane Green Wave still has a marquee win over Duke this season, which will bode well for them down the road. Not only this, but Tulane’s remaining strength of schedule lends itself to success, with a 10.3% chance of winning out that ranks highly within their conference.
With Memphis as the only team expected to put up a fight against the Green Wave, it’s not all that crazy to think a conference championship matchup with the red-hot South Florida Bulls will decide who gets into the playoffs.
1) South Florida Bulls
- PFSN FPM Probability: 24.3%
“If the season were to end right now, the South Florida Bulls would be the most likely Group of Five team to make the playoffs based on their strength of resume.” This statement from an earlier article I wrote still rings true a couple of weeks later, with an emphatic slam dunk win over North Texas serving as yet another statement win for the Bulls.
The Bulls have a quarterback in Byrum Brown with enough juice to keep them in games with some of the Power Four teams that might lack a pass rush. If South Florida gets the 12-seed in the playoffs, whoever is displeased with getting the five seed will need to treat this as a proper trap game.
