Indiana just finished one of the most improbable championship runs in college football history. Paul Finebaum is already telling the Hoosiers not to expect an encore.
The ESPN analyst praised Curt Cignetti during Tuesday’s “First Take,” even calling him the best coach in college football. Finebaum nevertheless said Indiana’s tougher 2026 schedule and quarterback change leave him convinced the defending champions will not repeat.
Paul Finebaum Says Indiana Will Not Repeat
Finebaum’s argument started with Indiana’s place inside its own conference. The Hoosiers are No. 6 in the preseason AP poll, behind Big Ten rivals Ohio State at No. 1 and Oregon at No. 2.
“They are the third best team in their own conference,” Finebaum said in the First Take clip. “And I know that sounds like a slam, but it’s not. It’s a reality.”
His bigger concern is the schedule. Indiana opens with North Texas, Howard, and Western Kentucky before Big Ten play, but October becomes substantially less forgiving.
The official schedule sends the Hoosiers to Nebraska on Oct. 10, brings Ohio State to Bloomington on Oct. 17, and sends Indiana to Michigan on Oct. 24.
Finebaum called that stretch a “three game gauntlet” Indiana did not face last season. He also pointed to a home date with USC and a November trip to Washington as potential problems. Even so, he stopped short of calling Indiana a one-hit wonder and predicted 10 wins and 2 losses at worst.
“Cignetti’s the best coach in college football,” Finebaum said. “I think they’re still a playoff team.”
His conclusion was considerably less flattering.
“Slow down a little bit, okay, IU?” Finebaum said. “You’ve had your day. You’ll have some fun, but you’re not winning the national championship this year.”
“Slow down a little bit. … You had your day, you’ll have some fun, but you’re not winning the National Championship this year.”
@finebaum sees NO chance in Indiana winning the National Championship 😳 pic.twitter.com/NfZqVdhXJ2— First Take (@FirstTake) August 18, 2026
Josh Hoover Faces Fernando Mendoza Sized Expectations
Indiana has earned more benefit of the doubt than most programs would receive after losing a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 NFL Draft pick.
Cignetti is 27-2 through two seasons in Bloomington. Indiana went 11-2 and reached the College Football Playoff in 2024 before exploding to 16-0 last season, beating Miami 27-21 for the program’s first national championship.
The next quarterback is Josh Hoover, whose transfer from TCU gives Cignetti another experienced passer. Hoover threw for 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 2025. His 86.0 PFSN CFB QB Impact score ranked 21st nationally.
Finebaum does not expect Hoover to replicate Mendoza, saying, “He is not going to be Fernando Mendoza. I think everybody can bank on that.”
That is a high bar. Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns, won the Heisman Trophy, and became the first overall pick of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Indiana does not need Hoover to become Mendoza overnight. Finebaum’s point is that the schedule leaves far less room for adjustment this time. Cignetti has spent two years turning doubt into fuel, and Finebaum just delivered another tankful.
