PFSN’s DEFi grades are heavily correlated with success in college football. When people say that defense wins championships, the data support the claim. Using all data since 2019, PFSN’s Defensive Impact grades have an R-Squared percentage of 65.2% in relation to points per game allowed and 38.6% with winning percentage.
How Top Defensive Impact Teams Consistently Convert Metrics Into Wins
For context, that win percentage falls in line with the best-of-the-best metrics-wise. Even though this uses a slightly different measure (margin of victory), NFELO showed that even EPA (expected points added) sits around 40%. Now imagine what our correlations would look like with overall team grades and our CFB Playoff Meter (FPM) included.
Teams with a higher defensive impact grade win more often, and there is much less variance. Now that you fully grasp the power of these rankings, here are the defenses that fell into the top two categories on this chart and gave their team a much higher chance of winning.
10) South Alabama Jaguars
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 86.0 (B)
Huge shoutout to my brother, Payton Stolte, who is currently a freshman at the University of South Alabama. He and many other fans were in for a treat in Week 12, as the Jaguars played tough defense to beat Louisiana-Monroe by two scores. According to TruMedia, the Warhawks were held to just 82 yards passing on 19 attempts. The Jaguars are one of 62 teams this season to hold an opponent below 85 passing yards.
9) Fresno State Bulldogs
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 86.1 (B)
Fresno State finishes as the No. 9 team in Week 12 defensive rankings after joining South Alabama in being one of the 62 teams to hold an opposing offense to under 85 yards passing. The Bulldogs held Wyoming to three points, their lowest total of the season. They also forced them into their second-worst passing EPA and lowest total yardage in a game this season.
8) UTSA Roadrunners
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 86.4 (B)
UTSA’s defense becomes the fifth defense this season to place in the top 25 in our weekly rankings after facing Charlotte’s offense. Yet, as bad as Charlotte is, only the North Texas defense ranked in the top 10 that week, and its grade of 83.2 is significantly lower than the Roadrunners’.
This hasn’t been a world-beating season for UTSA defensively, with a No. 74 ranking in our season-long DEFi grades. This dominant performance over Charlotte should boost morale heading into the season finale and maybe allow the Roadrunners to become bowl eligible.
7) Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 87.0 (B+)
After much scrutiny in the past few weeks, the Miami Hurricanes have finally righted the ship in large part due to a suffocating pass-rush. Miami is No. 4 in the FBS in pressure rate, getting pressure on 41.6% of opposing passes. The win over NC State was no different, as they finished with a 44.1% pressure rate and got home on one of them.
NC State may have recovered Akeem Mesidor’s strip-sack, but it was just a microcosm of what the Miami defense on the whole was able to do to an offense that had just recently hung 48 on Georgia Tech.
6) James Madison Dukes
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 87.8 (B+)
DJ Barksdale has two interceptions and five pass break-ups this season, on top of a 70.1 passer rating allowed when targeted. The James Madison defense ranks No. 7 this year with an 88.4 impact grade, and this week was no different as Barksdale nabbed an interception on AJ Swann early in the first quarter to give JMU the ball back after a punt and an interception of their own on the first two drives of the game.
If the Dukes want to make it to the College Football Playoffs, it’s the defense that will take them to the promised land.
5) Toledo Rockets
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 88.0 (B+)
Toledo terrorized Miami (OH) in Week 12, picking off the quarterback three times while also sacking him six times. His 10.3 passer rating in that game was just the fourth of its kind this season. The other three teams to finish with that low of a passer rating faced Oregon’s defense (twice) and Iowa — elite company for the Rockets.
4) Indiana Hoosiers
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 88.2 (B+)
The Indiana Hoosiers are a mainstay in these rankings. Add this to the long line of absolutely incredible achievements for Curt Cignetti and the boys, who continue to prove that they aren’t some flash in the pan. The Hoosiers have tied San Diego State for the 10th-most top 10 appearances in our defensive rankings since 2019.
Even crazier, Indiana has already tied Georgia in 2021 and Clemson in 2019 with seven top-10 rankings in a season. Looking at just the top five placements, the Hoosiers dominate everyone, with Week 12 being the sixth one of the season.
3) Penn State Nittany Lions
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 88.3 (B+)
Penn State might not have gotten everything they had hoped for out of this season, but at least they still play with pride. After a gut-wrenching loss to the Hoosiers despite having them on the ropes, the Nittany Lions followed up with an outstanding performance against Michigan State.
The team as a whole finished with five sacks, while Dani Dennis Sutton accumulated two of those on his own. The Spartans finished with 4.6 yards on the ground and 4.7 through the air. Quite impressive for the Penn State defense to hold an offense to equal gains on passes as they did runs.
2) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 89.7 (B+)
Notre Dame is one of the hottest teams in the nation right now, and its defense is playing light-years better than they were at the beginning of the season. Using an exponentially weighted moving average, Notre Dame has the best defense entering Week 13, with a grade of 87.3.
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They also have the second-highest improvement in their weighted score compared to their simple average, indicating significant overall improvement. Out of the top 10 teams in this metric, only the Fighting Irish are the only ones with a legitimate shot at the playoffs — a very dangerous team heading into December football.
1) Old Dominion Monarchs
Week 12 PFSN College DEFi Grade: 92.5 (A-)
The only team to finish with an A- or better in Week 12 was Old Dominion. Their total domination of the Troy offense in the shutout victory had shades of Greek as Troy hasn’t been this overwhelmed since the 12th or 13th century BCE. Perhaps if Troy’s defense back then were as rock solid as Old Dominion’s in Week 12 of the 2025 season, the event would have ended a little differently.
