On Tuesday, we find out who is in the playoffs in the second week of the CFP Committee rankings. As we inch closer to the end of the season, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 12 spots in this playoff, and our College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is here to help guide you towards which teams have the best shot.
Here are the 25 highest-ranked teams according to PFSN
25) Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati’s Week 1 loss to Nebraska was an afterthought once they started putting up consistently good tape. The Bearcats were stacking solid offensive play and winning against solid opponents until week 10. Then they ran into a buzzsaw of a defense in the Utah Utes, who are currently one of the more underrated teams in the nation.
The playoff chances for Cincinnati are drawing slim, with just a 28.8% chance of making the conference championship and only a 3.0% chance of an at-large bid. According to TruMedia, the Cincinnati defense ranks 73rd in points allowed per drive. They would need to step it up big time down the stretch, even to have an outside shot at the playoffs.
24) Iowa Hawkeyes
The Iowa Hawkeyes have been one of the more underrated teams of this season, but they aren’t quite playoff worthy yet. They showed grit and resilience against both Oregon and Indiana this season, but when it mattered most, they came up short. Playoff teams either get remarkably lucky or they find a way to win these games. If it weren’t for the Iowa State loss, the Hawkeyes would have a significantly higher shot at the playoffs, but three losses will effectively eliminate you.
23) USF Bulls
The USF Bulls are among some of the Group of Five teams that should absolutely be cheering for the Duke Blue Devils to win the ACC. A four-loss ACC champion would hopefully ensure two Group of Five teams make the playoffs. With San Diego State pissing down their leg, that leaves South Florida and James Madison as the top candidates.
Who wouldn’t love a Byrum Brown playoff appearance against an elite Texas Tech pass rush, or a dangerous Notre Dame secondary?
22) Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners have an elimination game in Tuscaloosa in week 11. A win over Alabama significantly improves their chances of making the playoffs, while a loss all but guarantees they are out. Who knows how this season would have gone had John Mateer not played hurt against Texas? However, the fact of the matter is they have some extremely tough and unfavorable matchups that are likely impeding their shot at the playoffs.
21) Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has dropped all the way down to 21 in our rankings after a disastrous week 10. With only one loss that didn’t even count as a conference loss, the Cavaliers were in prime shape to take the ACC and make the playoffs. Now, they will need outside help while still having to go up against a volatile Duke squad.
20) SMU Mustangs
SMU has finally garnered some attention after following up its shocking overtime win over Miami with a 45-13 beatdown of Boston College. SMU ranks 101st in our OFFi scores, which suggests they would need to rely on the defense if they wanted to make a swing at a second-straight playoff appearance.
19) North Texas Mean Green
While I believe USF and James Madison have the best shot at being the Group of Five representatives, our FPM believes North Texas should be in that conversation. With South Florida holding the tie, North Texas would need a rematch in the conference title game or for the Bulls to lose before that.
The main reason for the Mean Green being ranked higher than South Florida is the remaining strength of schedule for both teams. North Texas has the 14th-easiest remaining strength of schedule while South Florida has the 43rd-easiest, according to our metrics.
18) Pittsburgh Panthers
The Pittsburgh Panthers are one of the hottest teams in college football, who absolutely control their own destiny. Despite Pat Narduzzi’s absurd comments, the game against Notre Dame is crucial.
NEW: Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi on whether Notre Dame game is a ‘must-win’:
“Absolutely not, It is not an ACC game. I’m glad you brought that up. It’s not an ACC game. I’d gladly get beat 103 or 110-10 in that game. They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two… pic.twitter.com/7mA3xmxMrM
– On3 (@On3sports) November 10, 2025
A win over Notre Dame should enable the Panthers to not only make the playoffs through a conference championship but also through an at-large bid. Because Notre Dame ranks sixth in our power rankings, Pittsburgh’s chances of an at-large bid are just 1.0%. Luckily, they have a 19.5% chance to win their conference.
17) Texas Longhorns
Out of the teams ranked in the mid-teens, the Texas Longhorns have the highest potential ceiling, in my opinion. Arch Manning has consistently improved throughout the season, continuing to hit those home-run balls while also working on the short, simple stuff. Manning ranks 70th in EPA (expected points added) per drop-back with a time to throw of less than 2.5 seconds, and 51st on plays longer than that.
Steve Sarkisian’s continuously improving play-calling is finally enabling these talented receivers to gain the yards after catch we have been waiting for. The Longhorns will be a very tough out for both the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas A&M Aggies.
16) Tulane Green Wave
Tulane’s slip-up against UTSA made things infinitely more complicated in the Group of Five race to the playoffs. With a win over Duke and a quality loss (thanks, SEC, for creating this idea) to Ole Miss, the Green Wave still have a shot at the playoffs so long as they win the AAC.
If I were a committee member, the only way a Duke gets in over the AAC champion is if the AAC champion drops one along the way.
15) BYU Cougars
The BYU Cougars showed us in week 10 that they emphatically don’t belong in the playoff conversation. I understand that teams have bad games, but you cannot lose in that manner this late in the season and expect people to give you a pass. Texas Tech dominated from start to finish, especially in the trenches. This is a dangerous sign, considering how tough the trench play becomes as you move up the ladder of elite teams.
With that being said, they have played well enough in the rest of the season to give them a somewhat decent chance at making it. PFSN has them at an 11% chance to make the playoffs as an at-large bid, but that wouldn’t matter if they can enact revenge on Texas Tech in a Big 12 championship.
14) James Madison Dukes
The top-rated Group of Five team is James Madison. The Dukes get the pleasure of playing in the Sun Belt, which means they avoid the frenzy that is the AAC right now. With their only loss being to Louisville, the Dukes have a separate ACC rooting interest than their Group of Five counterparts.
A Louisville ACC champion would likely mean only one Group of Five team gets in, which I would expect to be James Madison, in a season where they finish undefeated in conference and only one loss on the season to a fellow playoff team.
13) Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt’s loss to Texas significantly hurt its chances of making the playoffs, given the severity of the defeat and the committee’s view of Texas. Although the box score indicates a one-score game, Texas was up 24-3 at one point and finished the half up 24-10. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter, when Texas let off the gas at 34-16, that the Commodores made it look like a competitive game.
Regardless of that result, Vanderbilt still has a clear shot at the playoffs with a ranking that should be in striking distance of the final at-large bid as well as an opportunity to bolster that resume with a win over the Tennessee Volunteers.
12) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Like just about every other ACC team on this list, Georgia Tech lost a game it shouldn’t have, which has hampered its playoff chances. Luckily, Tech was able to regain control of its destiny after both Louisville and Virginia had meltdowns in week 10. The game against Georgia essentially ensures the Yellow Jackets (3.3% at-large chance) need to win the ACC to make it, but this is still a possibility.
Georgia Tech’s weakness lies on defense, suggesting the Pittsburgh game should be a shootout, with the team that retains possession having the opportunity to play for a playoff spot.
11) Michigan Wolverines
The key to Michigan’s playoff spot is simple. Do what they did last year and shell-shock a much more talented and better (on paper) team in Ohio State. Led by true freshman Bryce Underwood, I don’t see it this year. Ohio State’s defense is too skilled, flies around the ball, and ranks 14th in defensive rushing success rate and fifth in defensive rushing EPA.
This doesn’t bode well for a Michigan team that plays better when it isn’t expected to pass. The glaring difference for the Michigan defense this year is that they don’t have two first-round defensive tackles to anchor the middle of the defense and keep the Buckeyes from gushing them.
10) USC Trojans
USC has had an up-and-down 2025 season. At the same time, the Notre Dame loss could turn out to be respectable if the Irish win out; there is no justification for the loss to Illinois. If USC wants to make the playoffs, it will need to win out, which will be difficult given that Iowa and Oregon are still on the schedule.
Unfortunately for the Trojans, both Oregon and Iowa boast a pair of cornerbacks that can at least make it difficult for the talented wide receiver core. In particular, Brandon Finney Jr., a true freshman corner for the Ducks, ranks 39th on the season with an 86.5 CBi.
9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
As much as people may want to criticize the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, I absolutely support their ranking and think it makes intuitive sense. When people look at their schedule, they point to the losses against Miami and Texas A&M as the end-all, be-all that suggests they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.
Never mind the fact that they have a convincing win over another ranked team in USC; they dominated an Arkansas team that has been in a one-possession game with pretty much every elite SEC team they have faced, and they boat-raced an NC State team that handily beat Georgia Tech.
Throw in the fact that the only reason they actually lost to an undefeated Texas A&M is because of a botched hold on an extra point, plus the most outrageous no-call on a precise hold. There is no way you can convince me to punish a team for losing in Hard Rock in their quarterback’s first-ever start by three and then losing to a top-three team in football by a single point because of special teams.
8) Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of my favorite dark horses to go deep into the playoffs. They rank seventh in pressure rate this season, a common trait among successful playoff teams of the past. In fact, 36 teams (excluding 2025) have finished a season with a pressure rate above 40% since 2019. Of these 36 teams, two were national champions, and the average win percentage was 69.4%.
As long as Texas Tech takes care of business, even a conference championship loss ensures they are in the playoffs. The rest of this season is about securing a home game and finding a healthy path to the playoffs.
7) Oregon Ducks
It wasn’t pretty against Iowa, but the Oregon Ducks got it done in true Big 10 fashion. This win actually increased my confidence in the team, despite the ugliness of the win. It showed that they are a different Oregon than that of the past and have the big bodies to compete in the trenches. They might not be as talented as last year’s team, but I fully expect them to be much more competitive in the playoffs.
6) Georgia Bulldogs
In my opinion, the Georgia Bulldogs this season are a house of cards just waiting to fall. In several games this season (Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee), the Bulldogs were down and had to rally to win by a single score.
They didn’t possess the lead in the Tennessee game until there were 7:19 left in the third quarter. Against Ole Miss, it wasn’t until 12:56 in the fourth quarter that their defense forced a punt, enabling them to win the game. Finally, against Florida, they took the game-winning lead with just 4:18 left in the fourth quarter. It’s tough to win a lot of close games, especially when your defense is the one letting you down.
In a game against a red-hot Texas offense that also has one of the top defenses in the nation, Georgia cannot afford to get off to a slow start. This will ring even more true in the playoffs against the nation’s top offenses.
5) Ole Miss Rebels
All of the things I said about Georgia also apply to the University of Mississippi. The offense is great, but the defense has faltered numerous times this season, forcing them to play with razor-thin margins. Luckily for the Rebels, their most formidable opponents are behind them, and even missing out on the conference championship should have them in the playoffs with relative ease.
All things considered, making the playoffs with your pre-season backup quarterback has to be a nice feeling for Lane Kiffin and his squad. Take care of business, miss the SEC conference championship haymaker game, and come into the first round of the playoffs rested and ready to put up a fight.
4) Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama started the year with a loss to Florida State, but has since rattled off eight straight wins and appears to be one of the best teams in the country. It’s hard to point to a better resume than the Crimson Tide’s, with wins over Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. Even with the loss, Alabama has proven to be one of the top teams in the nation after just one down year.
What scares me the most about this team is that all their parts are clicking at the right time, and they have a quarterback reminiscent of their recent history: a talented thrower with immense processing skills and a lot of poise. Ty Simpson has (almost as good) accuracy like Tua Tagovailoa, pocket presence, and processing better than all of them, and the poise of Alabama’s version of Bryce Young.
3) Ohio State Buckeyes
For being undefeated and not really having been challenged all year, the reigning champs should take it as an insult to be ranked third in our playoff rankings. Of course, we are splitting hairs at the top, but the Buckeyes look pretty much unstoppable. I have been touting this defense as one of the greatest of all time for quite some time now, and I cannot wait for their Big Ten championship matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers.
That game right there will decidedly declare whether Ohio State is primed for a repeat title or if there is still work to be done. I think what’s scariest about this team is that Julian Sayin has only gotten better and is becoming increasingly more confident. Sayin has gone from an air yards per attempt of 5.5, 8.6, 8.9, and 4.4 in his first four games to 11.0, 8.3, 8.8, 9.3, and 9.3 in his last five.
Even scarier, it hasn’t come with a drop in production as he continues to make significant decisions and rarely turns the ball over. Sayin ranks ninth in the least amount of EPA lost to sacks and 36th in the least amount of EPA lost to interceptions this year.
2) Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M still has some demons to overcome if it wants to make it to the playoffs as a team with a bye week. If they can get past Texas, win or lose in the SEC Championship, it pretty much locks up that bye week. A loss to Texas could mean they have to play in the first round, which would drastically change their situation.
All in all, this Aggies team has all the makings of a national title contender. They’ve got insane weapons offensively, Marcel Reed has played well, and the defense has done just enough to get the job done — hats off to Mike Elko and crew for what they have established in College Station.
1) Indiana Hoosiers
Ranking the Indiana Hoosiers as the number one team in any college football playoff ranking two years ago would have been one of the most asinine things you could have done. However, no matter how you try to spin Curt Cignetti’s success in Bloomington, it will likely still undersell it.
In one of the most demanding environments against a team that has nothing to lose, with all things going wrong… Fernando Mendoza put together one of the clutchest drives of the season to keep the undefeated train rolling. It featured some unreal catches, including one of the best in my lifetime, as well as some great processing from Mendoza to stay on time with blitzers in his face. The Hoosiers are legit.
