The ACC just got infinitely more interesting with multiple top teams falling this week and a reminder that an early in the season scheduling quirk has had an enormous effect on the top of the standing to this point and likely will down the stretch.
Who’s in? Who’s out? What does the path to the ACC Championship Game look like as the remaining games unfold?
ACC Championship Game Probabilities
Entering week 11 of the season, just eight teams have not been mathematically eliminated from the ACC Championship game according to our PFSN College Football Playoff Meter. Six of those eight have greater than a 20% chance which means things are still very much alive.
- Virginia: 55.4%
- Georgia Tech: 40.5%
- Louisville: 32.8%
- Pittsburgh: 27.6%
- SMU: 21.7%
- Duke: 20.2%
- Miami (FL): 1.9%
- NC State: 0.02%
ACC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Virginia: 27.6%
- Georgia Tech: 22.0%
- Louisville: 17.8%
- Pittsburgh: 14.6%
- SMU: 9.7%
- Duke: 7.6%
- Miami (FL): 0.9%
Putting the Miami Hurricanes at just under a 2% chance of making the ACC Championship game would have been an incomprehensible and irresponsible take before Week 8 of the season. That just goes to show you how amazing and unpredictable the great game of college football can be and why anything is possible going forward.
Latest ACC Standings
1) Virginia Cavaliers 8-1 (5-0)
2) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 8-1 (5-1)
3) Pittsburgh Panthers 7-2 (5-1)
4) Louisville Cardinals 7-1 (4-1)
5) SMU Mustangs 6-3 (4-1)
6) Duke Blue Devils 5-3 (4-1)
7) Miami Hurricanes 6-2 (2-2)
8) NC State Wolfpack 5-4 (2-3)
9) Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-3 (2-3)
10) Virginia Tech Hokies 3-6 (2-3)
11) California Golden Bears 5-4 (2-3)
12) Clemson Tigers 3-5 (2-4)
13) Stanford Cardinal 3-6 (2-4)
14) North Carolina Tar Heels 3-5 (1-3)
15) Florida State Seminoles 4-4 (1-4)
16) Syracuse Orange 3-6 (1-5)
17) Boston College Eagles 1-8 (0-5)
Virginia’s ACC Championship Road Map
The Virginia loss to NC State, 35-31, on Sept. 6, was not actually a conference game because the ACC forced its hand, as discussed in our article. This means that Virginia actually remains undefeated in conference play and will only play one of the top six teams to finish the season.
This suggests the Cavaliers have an obvious opportunity to not only win the conference but make the playoff as well (27.6% according to PFSN’s FPM).
Taking care of business is all it will take.
- vs. Wake Forest
- at Duke
- vs. Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship Road Map
After a tough loss to the Wolfpack, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets no longer hold the top spot in the ACC. With Duke and Louisville playing each other, the best Georgia Tech can do is a multi-team tie for first, in which a win over Pittsburgh should likely get them into the ACC Championship Game.
In terms of broader playoff hopes, it would require an upset on a neutral field over the Georgia Bulldogs to get an at-large bid. Just an absolutely brutal result for a team that was unblemished up until this point.
- at Boston College
- vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Road Map
Pittsburgh’s remaining opponents are a combined 20-5, and they are really banged up right now. Despite the Notre Dame game not being a conference game, Pitt still has both Georgia Tech and Miami coming up if they want to reach the playoff.
While it isn’t likely they make it, true freshman Mason Heintschel has the Panthers looking different. Since Heintschel took over as the starting quarterback, Pittsburgh’s offensive impact score has gone from 74.9 to 78.4. For context, that’s the difference between the 76th-ranked offense and the 48th-ranked offense.
- at Georgia Tech
- vs. Miami
Louisville’s ACC Championship Road Map
Louisville ranks third in probability to make the ACC Championship game, which makes sense when looking at its schedule. According to TruMedia, Louisville ranks second in the FBS in pressure rate, pressuring quarterbacks on 44.1% of their dropbacks. This should help them significantly against the 128th, 59th, and 64th-ranked offensive lines according to PFSN.
- vs. California
- vs. Clemson
- at SMU
SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map
After an overtime upset over Miami, SMU now has a significantly increased chance at making it to the ACC Championship game. Assuming they win against the teams they should (big assumption!!), the home game versus Louisville will be monumental. Kevin Jennings and this offense need to bring their A-game against this pass rush.
Thus far, SMU has proven to be just fine against pressure, ranking 29th in passing EPA (expected points added) under pressure. The question will be whether Jennings and the offense can stay consistent in true drop-back situations.
- at Boston College
- vs. Louisville
- at California
Duke’s ACC Championship Road Map
Duke is the last of the remaining ACC teams with a non-miracle chance of making the ACC Championship game. None of this matters for Duke, however, if they can’t defeat Virginia next week. A win there will muddy the standings in the ACC yet again and give the Blue Devils a larger but still outside chance of winning the conference.
With Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh set to play as well as Louisville and SMU, a Duke win over Virginia would mean a three-way tie, assuming wins for everyone in other games. In that situation, the Blue Devils would prefer Pittsburgh to be the victor over Georgia Tech, considering Tech has a win over the Blue Devils already.
- vs. Virginia
- at North Carolina
- vs. Wake Forest