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    Kyle Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Outlooks for De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, Stefon Diggs, and Others

    Have questions? Every single player on your radar is covered in this Week 11 preview of the 2023 fantasy football season!

    We have officially entered the grind of the fantasy football season. This is the time of year when managers separate themselves from the pack — use the 10 weeks of data that we have and thrive.

    If you’re not ready for the sprint to the finish line, you’ll get left behind. If you’re ready, I would like to cordially invite you to a trip through the Week 11 slate with me — free of charge. Statistically based analysis for every player, hot takes, and, if you’re lucky, maybe some very dated pop culture references.

    You in?

    Bye Weeks: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints

    Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

    • Spread: Ravens -4
    • Total: 46
    • Bengals implied points: 21
    • Ravens implied points: 25


    Joe Burrow: Last week wasn’t a masterclass in quarterbacking (two interceptions and four sacks), but Burrow continues to move toward the form of a fantasy difference-maker that we thought he’d be back in August.

    He has now posted a passer rating north of 88.0 in five straight games (multiple TD passes in all five contests), a threshold he hit exactly zero times in four games to open the season. Burrow easily cleared 300 yards for a second consecutive game, this time without Tee Higgins in the mix, and his aggression is what should have you excited.

    In those past two games, his aDOT has jumped 25.9% from where it stood through eight weeks. His willingness to push the ball down the field is what can make him an elite option coming down the stretch of the fantasy season, especially when he has a full set of healthy receivers.

    Is this a tough matchup? Obviously, but he’s still a top-10 play with relative ease. He dropped back 43 times in that game, and if that is the case again on Thursday night, I’ll trust it. The Ravens made it a point to take away Ja’Marr Chase in that game (31 yards on eight targets), and that allowed Higgins to get loose for 89 yards and two scores.

    With Chase rounding into form, it’ll be interesting to see if the Ravens can execute a similar plan (assuming Higgins is back). With five Tanner Hudson targets on the first drive last week, Burrow showed the type of patience we need to see in addition to the increase in aggression. Joe Cool is my QB6 this week and my top-ranked fantasy QB in this game.

    Lamar Jackson: As good as the Ravens as a team have looked, Jackson has not finished any of the past three weeks as a QB1 (two total TD passes over that stretch despite Baltimore putting 99 points on the board).

    That’s a problem in a few ways. First, the ability for a team to thrive without your fantasy piece succeeding is a red flag. It shows that they aren’t motivated to keep your fantasy team afloat. That may sound goofy, but think about it.

    MORE: Fantasy QB Week 11 Trade Targets — Buy Low, Sell High Players Include Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott

    The Eagles, the Bills … heck, the Texans at this point. Those are teams who need their QB to produce fantasy numbers for them to succeed, and because they win at a high level, their quarterbacks come with a preloaded floor that is usable.

    The Dolphins, the 49ers, and yes, the Ravens, don’t (always) need statistically impactful play from their QB to succeed. That creates a low floor that we have to acknowledge but can’t do much about.

    Jackson is great, and I have no issue with labeling him a lineup lock every single week. But droughts like what his fantasy managers are currently going through shouldn’t be shocking — this is a really good team capable of winning in a variety of ways.

    You’re starting Jackson (he was QB9 in this matchup two months ago), but you need to be aware that while Baltimore’s range of outcomes is reasonably narrow and positive, the same does not apply to their QB.

    Running Backs

    Joe Mixon: It’s rarely exciting, but Mixon has been no worse than an RB2 in all three games since the Week 7 bye and is providing consistent production as this offense finds its footing.

    The high-end rushing production might be a thing of the past (yet to hit 90 yards on the ground, and he has five games with under 60 yards), but with a touchdown in three straight and multiple receptions in five in a row, Mixon is a safe weekly play that carries limited risk.

    Back in Week 2, he totaled 95 yards on 17 touches against these stingy Ravens, and that landed him as RB20. I think a similar fantasy point total (11.5) is a reasonable expectation in this spot, and with the running back landscape decimated from what it was in September, that lands him a spot in my top 15 at the position.

    Gus Edwards: If you want to talk about a fragile fantasy profile, this is it. Edwards is a one-dimensional back (seven catches this season, and anytime a veteran running back has more years on this planet than career receptions, it’s not a great sign) without significant volume (two games north of 15 carries this season).

    If you gave me that profile with no other context, I’d tell you that he’s not rosterable. He has just two splash plays all season long (gains over 20 yards), so this isn’t a Saquon Barkley type of runner where one run can make up for a dozen ordinary ones. Nothing Edwards does is fantasy-friendly until he gets inside the 10-yard line, and he just so happens to play for an offense that does that as much as anyone in the game.

    With seven touchdowns over the past month, I can’t blame you for riding the Gus Bus until the wheels fall off. He’s the inverse of Jackson right now. The Ravens don’t need him to put up fantasy numbers in order for them to be successful; he just happens to be doing it right now. If the scoring dries up, Edwards is a Flex play more than anything.

    That’s the range in which I have him ranked. I have him behind players I trust to get more touches (James Conner and James Cook types) and behind players I identify as having a higher Week 11 ceiling despite lower touch ceilings (Jahmyr Gibbs and Raheem Mostert types).

    Edwards and Brian Robinson are the Spider-Man meme in terms of what they bring to the table, and I am treading very lightly around them moving forward — both are great sell options as your trade deadline approaches!

    Justice Hill: I think we can be done here. He was on the field for half the snaps of Edwards and only one more than the explosive Keaton Mitchell, positioning him to be meaningless for our purposes.

    Yes, he had a touchdown called back last week, and his box score looks different if that counts, but if I’m going to be worried about the usage of the lead back, I can’t get behind holding onto the RB3 in this offense.

    Keaton Mitchell: Two more explosive plays for the rookie, and his 15 touches this season have gained a modest 209 yards (two touchdowns). On four touches against one of the best defenses in the league last week, Mitchell provided solid RB2 production.

    I can already hear you guys complaining.

    “Kyle preached this ‘outlier production’ narrative when De’Von Achane burst onto the scene and was dead wrong. Why would I listen to him in a similar situation again?”

    Fair point. But these outlier performances are outliers for a reason. Betting against undersized receivers is a good bet over time, but it doesn’t mean that players like Tyreek Hill don’t exist. The same train of thought applies here. This is a great start to his career, but let’s pump the breaks just a touch.

    He was undrafted out of East Carolina for a reason. He made his season debut (once healthy) on special teams for a reason. He got four touches last week for a reason. I’m not at all suggesting that what he has done up to this point isn’t impressive; I am suggesting that he’s probably not averaging 13.9 yards per touch for much longer.

    In this offense that can hurt you in a variety of ways, Mitchell is an option but not the option. He’s outside of my top 30 at the position and still isn’t someone I’m seriously considering starting.

    Wide Receivers

    Ja’Marr Chase: Was the back injury limiting his usage early on? It was, but the big play is part of the profile here, and his 64-yard TD made all concerns go right out the window!

    Chase finished with five catches for 124 yards and that touchdown against the Texans, continuing a strong run of production. I have zero concerns about Higgins eating into his target share when he returns, and I think the attention Higgins demands (assuming reasonable health) is actually a good thing for Chase’s production floor.

    With Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin producing last week, it is clear that Burrow doesn’t feel obligated to force the ball to his alpha. Again, I think this is a good thing; it shows that his QB is operating at a high level. Call me crazy, but when rostering a receiver, I’m generally on board with the idea of my QB finding his groove and seeing the game slow down for him.

    Chase is in the WR1 overall conversation for the remainder of the season.

    Tee Higgins: A nagging hamstring injury kept Higgins sidelined last week, and that can make it easy to forget how productive he was in the two games immediately following the bye: 13 catches on 15 targets for 179 yards. Not a bad sign for a receiver that went 8-89-2 in the Week 2 meeting against these Ravens.

    He was the 14th WR off of boards this summer, and he’s not yet that high in my rankings (especially in this spot). He’s certainly trending in the right direction if he gets a clean bill of health pre-game.

    Baltimore has largely excelled at limiting top receiving options, thus opening the door for Higgins to have the success that he did back in September. Here are some of the players to lead their team in receiving yards against the Ravens:

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    Trey McBride
    Tyjae Spears
    David Njoku

    Tyler Boyd: You could argue that Boyd’s best game of the season (eight catches on 12 targets for 117 yards) was the direct result of Higgins sitting out or that the early birthday vibes were strong (turned 30 on Wednesday). But how would you explain this being his third top-25 performance over a four-game stretch?

    Now, I don’t expect Boyd to be a WR2 moving forward, but for the right fantasy team, he’s a viable Flex option. His role is stable (6.8 targets per game), and that’s great for his floor with Burrow playing well.

    Yet, the lack of yardage upside (aside from Sunday) is a concern. He didn’t have a 15-yard catch until Week 8, and there have been six games in which he has failed to clear 40 receiving yards.

    Boyd’s Week 10 gem should have been even better, as he dropped a go-ahead 13-yard score down the stretch. He looked great, and yet, the thing that his ROS ranked most for me last week was what Trenton Irwin did…

    Trenton Irwin: In the previous game that Higgins sat, Irwin’s snap share was ahead of Boyd, and he proved plenty capable with a 32-yard score on the first possession against the Texans.

    For the game, he was on the field for 81.3% of the snaps and boasted an 80.9% route participation rate. Those are meaningful metrics that make Irwin a DFS option if the Bengals are missing one of their three primary pieces.

    Once Higgins returns, however, Irwin should be on waiver wires. I’m not interested in rostering a WR4, I’ll spend FAAB or a waiver priority should another injury occur.

    As for the Boyd thing, Irwin and Tanner Hudson combined to see 28.2% of the Week 10 targets. To me, that hints that this offense has the bandwidth to support three viable pass catchers.

    I’m putting it on your radar now, just as something to keep stashed in the back of your mind: the Bengals get the Chiefs in Week 17. That will be a game with a high total, and Kansas City has proven capable of shutting down primary threats lately. There could be some high-floor upside at the perfect time.

    Week 9 vs. MIA: Tyreek Hill — 6.2 yards per target
    Week 8 at DEN: Courtland Sutton — 29 yards
    Week 7 vs. LAC: Keenan Allen — 6.1 yards per target

    Zay Flowers: So close! Jackson missed the rookie on what should have been a 41-yard touchdown, and if that play connects, the discourse is completely different.

    As it is, Flowers turned in his second-best game since September (five catches for 73 yards). The inconsistencies of Jackson give Flowers a low floor, no matter how good you think he is, and that’s terrifying for an offense that prefers to run the ball.

    I have Flowers outside of my top 35 due in large part to his lack of upside in a low-octane offense. He was not one of the three Ravens with a 30-yard catch last week, has gone three straight without a 20-yard grab, and hasn’t scored in the United States this season (anyone else having Kyle Pitts flashbacks?).

    He needs to be rostered in all formats, but I’d rather roll the dice on an upside play like Jahan Dotson or play the matchup card with Calvin Ridley (vs. Titans).

    Odell Beckham Jr.: That’s consecutive games with a touchdown for the veteran, and on Sunday, he showed the catch-and-run potential that we’ve seen in the past when he took a slant 40 yards to the house.

    The single-play upside is good to see, and the potency of this offense fuels his potential, but I’m not sold. He has two games this season with 5+ targets, and that’s because he’s just not on the field enough (ran a route on 40% of Jackson’s dropbacks last week).

    Rashod Bateman was on the field twice as often as OBJ last week, so I’m not even sure that Beckham would be the dart I’d throw on this offense if I was hellbent on doing so.

    But I’m not. I’m not rostering a Ravens pass catcher not named Mark Andrews or Zay Flowers.

    Tight Ends

    Mark Andrews: For the fourth time in five games, Andrews failed to earn more than six targets last week, and it resulted in a season-low 5.4 fantasy points.

    There’s nothing actionable to do here. My preseason rankings at the TE position were Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Andrews, and that is the exact order I have them in moving forward.

    The floor performance wasn’t fun to sit through, but he had a TD or 10 targets in five of his six games prior, a usage that will give you the edge over the majority of your league at the position.

    Andrews led the Ravens in catches (five) and targets (eight), and he scored in the Week 1 meeting with the Bengals — a stat line I think he can repeat tonight.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

    • Spread: Browns -4
    • Total: 36
    • Steelers implied points: 16
    • Browns implied points: 20


    Kenny Pickett: After completing 31 passes in the season opener, Pickett hasn’t fed his teammates 20 passes a single time. With just a single touchdown pass over the past month, we are looking at a player who is worth benching in Superflex leagues for a WR3 or running back who projects for 15 touches.

    Yes, it’s that bad.

    Running Backs

    Najee Harris: Have you ever taken time off of work and come back rejuvenated? Maybe it’s because you love your job and just missed the grind. Maybe it’s because you spent the off time with your inlaws, and work is a welcomed return to normalcy. Whatever the case may be, we’ve all had it happen — that’s why you take time off.

    Harris is one of us! He looked cooked earlier this season, but since the bye, he’s produced RB1 numbers in three of four games. This Steelers team continues to achieve above expectations, and they surely aren’t going to opt to bank on Pickett winning them games.

    Remember the case I made against Lamar Jackson? That the team didn’t need him to produce to succeed? Pittsburgh is the opposite, and we saw this down the season as he scored in four of his final five games.

    I have some sustainability concerns (dead even split in snaps, and it’s unlikely that he sees four targets on nine routes as he did against the Packers), but the touch floor demands he is ranked as a fantasy starter, even in this difficult matchup.

    Jaylen Warren: With 223 total yards (7.3 yards per carry) over the past weeks, Warren is showing us that what we thought was possible is, in fact, possible. Sadly for Warren managers, his peak performance coincides with strong Harris production, and thus, his standing in this backfield hasn’t expanded in a major way.

    With multiple catches in eight of nine games, Warren’s skill set is that of a stable Flex option. Don’t lose sight of the fact that he didn’t have 10 carries in a game prior to this recent run — the touch count is far from a lock.

    Both Steelers backs are inside of my top 30 at the position, something I didn’t anticipate back in August.

    Jerome Ford: There is no denying who “the guy” is in Cleveland these days. Ford out-snapped Hunt 50-28 and held a 26-11 edge in routes, making him the clear-cut feature back in an offense that aims to control the tempo and grind out games.

    That role resulted in him clearing 100 rushing yards in Baltimore, but he was again vultured in close by Hunt. Despite the solid workload, Ford has had one touchdown on his ledger since September ended, and that has capped his upside in a significant way (one top-15 finish over that stretch).

    In this instance, I’m a slave to the process. I have Ford ranked as a low-end RB2, just ahead of the touchdown-reliant backs in Gus Edwards and Brian Robinson. Basic thought: A player with volume is more likely to score than a touchdown-dependent RB is to suddenly earn volume.

    Kareem Hunt: He’s not really making a run at the lead back in Cleveland (yet to have 15 carries in a game this season), and he’s not even doing the thing we thought he’d specialize in (one catch over the past month). Yet, with a score in five straight games, he’s returned starting value every week since the bye:

    Week 6 vs. SF: RB10
    Week 7 at IND: RB11
    Week 8 at SEA: RB16
    Week 9 vs. ARI: RB20
    Week 10 at BAL: RB29

    As you can see, his weekly finishes are trending in the wrong direction, and if the touchdown luck flips, he’s really in trouble. We all know that the sportsbooks are smarter than most, and Hunt’s rushing prop came through last week (32 yards, over his projected total of 26.5). The risk is far greater than the potential of him continuing to rack up scores at this unsustainable rate.

    Hunt is outside of my top 35 at the position, and I think there’s a better chance he finishes outside of the top 45 running backs than inside the top 25.

    Wide Receivers

    Diontae Johnson: Well, that was disappointing. After posting an average finish of WR17 in his first three games back from injury, Johnson caught just one of four targets (he did have an end-zone target, so that’s a start) against the Packers for a whopping 17 yards.

    He’s half a dozen spots lower in my ranks this week than last, but most of that is matchup/schedule-driven. I’m still in. Last week, the Steelers had 13 more rush attempts than passes and were never forced to pass in a significant way — so they didn’t.

    I don’t see that being the case this week (or next, for that matter, in Cincinnati), and that has me penciling Johnson back into all my lineups. The 33.3% target share that he posted in Weeks 8-9 wasn’t a mistake, and if the passing pie is larger, I’m trusting Johnson to return value (prefer him to Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, and Tank Dell this weekend).

    George Pickens: As mentioned above, the lack of volume in this passing game left every Steeler without much in the way of opportunities. Pickens saw the same four targets that Johnson did — he just turned them into three catches and 45 yards.

    I’m tossing out Week 10 and approaching Week 11 the same way I did last week — Johnson is the elite target earner who possesses the much more appealing floor/ceiling combination.

    In Weeks 8-9, Pickens turned 10 targets in 21 yards, a lack of efficiency that is terrifying if the volume isn’t a given. Pickens is firmly in the all-or-nothing tier with Gabe Davis and Jahan Dotson, landing him just inside of my top 40 at the position.

    Amari Cooper: Despite some very questionable quarterback play, Cooper has been a top-30 receiver in three straight and four of five games since Cleveland’s Week 5 bye. In fact, he has reached 89 receiving yards in each of his past three games — the first time in his career he has had a run like that.

    2023 season

    Cooper: 715 receiving yards
    Next two leaders on the Browns combined: 691 receiving yards

    With Deshaun Watson ruled out for the remainder of the season, any hopes of sustained QB play that emerged from the second half of Week 10 are now gone. I have no worries about Cooper’s role as the primary target earner, but the value of said targets is a major concern (P.J. Walker has completed 49% of his passes this season with one touchdown and five interceptions).

    As a result of the QB news for this week specifically, Cooper falls 10 spots in my WR rankings and now resides outside of my top 30. He carries more risk than reward in this matchup, and I’m treating him in a similar vein to Jakobi Meyers. The role and talent put them on our radar, but the situation is too much to overlook when it comes to locking in lineups.

    Elijah Moore: The touchdown last week resulted in Moore’s first usable week of the season, but he has yet to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this year and carries a floor that is more detrimental than his ceiling is helpful.

    I was hopeful that Moore’s role in the slot would provide access to a reasonable floor, but those hopes were dashed when Watson decided to go under the knife. Moore is no longer a player that needs to remain rostered.

    Quick note: Cedric Tillman ran a route on 90.9% of Watson’s dropbacks last week. I don’t trust the volume in this passing game to make him roster-worthy in redraft leagues, but it’s a DFS name to remember if you’re in a punt situation.

    Tight Ends

    David Njoku: Through seven weeks, Njoku wasn’t roster-worthy. He didn’t have a single top-15 performance over that stretch and lacked upside in an offense that was struggling.

    Recently, however, not only have we seen signs of life, but we’ve also seen enough to make him a top-12 option until otherwise noted. With nine targets or a score in four straight games, Njoku has returned top-12 value at the position for a month straight, and the next month schedule-wise, isn’t all that daunting.

    With Watson out for the rest of 2023, Njoku’s path to a weekly spot in my top 10 has vanished. However, I think he can stay atop the TE blob and thus be a usable (even if underwhelming at times) piece at the position for fantasy managers.

    Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

    • Spread: Lions -9.5
    • Total: 47
    • Bears implied points: 18.8
    • Lions implied points: 28.3


    Justin Fields: There was hope last week that Fields would be able to return from his dislocated thumb, but we were again without the star QB. That was a shame in a week with three locked-in fantasy QB starters on bye — that’s three more than we have on bye this week.

    Fields is in the starting conversation in what figures to be a spot where the Bears will have to score to keep up, but there’s obvious risk involved. The next time he throws for 210 yards against the Lions will be his first time doing so, and the throwing hand injury certainly doesn’t increase the odds of him doing that.

    Sure, he ran for 132 yards the last time he saw these Lions (Week 16 of last season), and that is what makes him an option. I can’t justify playing him over healthy higher-floor QBs, even in tough matchups (Joe Burrow in Baltimore and Josh Allen against the Jets, for example).

    I have him ranked in the same tier as Jared Goff (vs. CHI) and C.J. Stroud (vs. AZ). I think you can do better on a per-dollar basis in the DFS streets, but for season-long purposes, he’s better than the streamers that you’ve been replacing him with.

    Jared Goff: Consecutive home games for Goff — you know the drill.

    I don’t think I need to sell you on Goff as a top-10 option this week against the Bears. After lighting up the Chargers for 333 yards and a pair of scores, it’s time to have a slightly bigger conversation.

    Goff isn’t going anywhere.

    The Lions have one game left on their schedule that profiles as a potential weather concern, and it’s at Chicago in Week 14. I don’t care what the weather is that week. Are you worried about that matchup at all?

    I talked about Goff as a top-10 QB the rest of the way on Tuesday’s trade targets podcast, and I feel good about it. Maybe a healthy run game cuts into his production a bit, but I’d argue the efficiency we saw last week (76.4 QBR, his second-highest of the season) can be sustained and at least nullifies any volume loss to the ground game. I’m in on Juggernaut Jared the rest of the way!

    Running Backs

    Khalil Herbert: The ankle injury he suffered back in Week 5 against Washington remained enough of an issue last week to hold him out of Thursday Night Football despite being eligible to come off of IR prior to the game.

    His status needs to be monitored this week, though it is worth noting that Chicago has its bye in Week 13 — could the Bears wait one more week to activate him and then give him an extra week to recover from his return to action?

    Herbert totaled 198 yards and a touchdown in the two games we last saw him in, but he will be facing increased carry competition as a result of D’Onta Foreman rushing for 80+ yards in consecutive games, not to mention Fields potentially working his way back into action. Due to the lingering nature of this injury, both Herbert and Foreman will rank as low-end Flex options against a strong Lions run defense.

    D’Onta Foreman: The efficiency hasn’t been anything special over the past three weeks for Foreman despite some plus matchups (3.9 YPC against the Chargers, Saints, and Panthers), but with 43 touches over the past two weeks, it’s clear that the team has identified him as their primary back with Herbert out.

    How Herbert will be eased back into action is anyone’s guess, but could this be a committee with Foreman at the front?

    The Bears aren’t going anywhere this season, and Herbert is on the books for another season while Foreman will be a UFA at season’s end — logic could point them to handling Herbert cautiously and leaning on Foreman with 2024 in mind.

    Roschon Johnson: The rookie was competitive in snap count (39-30 in favor of Foreman) and ran 19 routes to Foreman’s 11, but it’s clear that the Bears aren’t comfortable with Johnson as much more than a complementary option right now. The four catches and six targets are good to see, but he hasn’t hit double figures in the touch department since September, and that doesn’t seem likely to change anytime soon.

    I still think there is an interesting dynasty profile here, but for 2023 redraft leagues, Johnson isn’t a must-roster player.

    Jahmyr Gibbs: Well, what do we have here??

    The rookie held a 38-25 edge over David Montgomery in snaps (21-11 in routes) last week and was even used inside the 10-yard line consistently. I have both of these backs ranked as RB2s this week in a plus matchup (the Lions ran for 265 yards and two scores in Week 16 against these Bears last season) and still slightly prefer Montgomery, but Gibbs’ talent is starting to shine.

    With another productive week and similar usage, I’ll make the move to go Gibbs over Montgomery the rest of the way. The veteran was productive enough early in the season to get demoted in my ranks after a productive return to action, but if it’s Gibbs leading this backfield again, he’ll move into my top 15 for the remainder of the season.

    David Montgomery: After missing nearly a month, Montgomery returned to action in style (12 carries for 116 yards and a 75-yard TD) against the Chargers. As mentioned, Gibbs was used as the lead back, and that’s moderately concerning, but this offense might be the rare unit that can sustain two viable running backs.

    The next healthy game that Montgomery plays this season without scoring will be his first. And until he loses that role, he deserves to be started in formats.

    This is the backfield I will be watching closest this weekend when it comes to rest-of-season ranks, but regardless of how the usage plays out, I have a hard time thinking that you’re benching whichever Lions back you roster anytime soon.

    Also … revenge game! Monty wasn’t shy about slinging mud at his former employer this summer:

    “It got to a point where it sucked the fun out of the game for me.”

    Wide Receivers

    DJ Moore: Last week in a revenge spot, it was a vintage performance from Moore — earning targets that carry limited fantasy upside. He saw north of 28% of the looks in this pass game and led the team in catches and yards on his way to a robust 8.3 fantasy points.

    He is the clear-cut top option in this passing game, but he needs Fields back under center for that to be of interest to us. That’s not to say a QB change elevates Moore to elite status, but it does at least give him access to a ceiling, even if it’s sporadic. Here are his yardage totals this season in Fields’ starts:

    Week 1 vs. GB: 25 yards
    Week 2 at TB: 104 yards
    Week 3 at KC: 41 yards
    Week 4 vs. DEN: 131 yards
    Week 5 at WAS: 230 yards
    Week 6 vs. MIN: 51 yards

    Darnell Mooney: He scored Chicago’s first touchdown of the season and has largely been shut out since. Not just from the end zone, but from basically anything of meaning to fantasy managers (Weeks 2-10: 18 catches for 268 yards and 0 TDs).

    He might make a splash play or two over the final two months if Fields is under center, but by no means is that enough to justify rostering him. It’s like I always say: “There are plenty of Mooneys in the sea.”

    Amon-Ra St. Brown: Last week in Los Angeles, the Lions went off for 41 points and 533 yards in what was the game of the week. In a spot like that against one of the five worst pass defenses in the NFL, surely more than one pass catcher returned value for Detroit, right? Right??

    Wrong. Dead wrong. St. Brown dominated as per usual (eight catches for 156 yards and a touchdown), easily extending his season-long streak of games with 100 yards or a touchdown by doing both. But after him? Nadda.

    Kalif Raymond was next on Detroit in receiving yards (46), and five different players saw 3-5 targets. The trade for Donovan Peoples-Jones gives this team more threats downfield in real life, but it means nothing for fantasy. There isn’t a WR2 on this team that deserves to be remotely close to your roster.

    Tight Ends

    Cole Kmet: That’s now 25 targets (21 catches) over the past three weeks for Kmet, the only player who has seen a stable production floor with Fields on the shelf. The move to a dink-and-dunk pass game has suited him well and put him on the TE streaming radar.

    Heck, last week, the Bears even trusted him with a Tush Push snap! Things are trending in the right direction for Kmet, and I have him ranked as a viable option this week.

    The impending return of Fields hurts his target equity a touch in my opinion, but the overall scoring potential upgrade (he did catch a TD pass against the Lions in Week 16 of last season) in that instance more than makes up for a minor dip in opportunities.

    Sam LaPorta: The down Week 10 was obviously a buzzkill for the star tight end, but there are zero reasons to worry. Even in a game in which his usage was below expectations, guess where Goff looked with the game on the line?

    MORE: Yates’ Fantasy Football Updated TE Rest-of-Season Rankings Week 11

    LaPorta’s catch on 4th-and-2 helped ice the game, and that’s not a mistake. This offense needs him to produce, given their lack of reliable WR depth, and fantasy managers should feel very comfortable in locking him into lineups across the board.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers

    • Spread: Chargers -3
    • Total: 44.5
    • Chargers implied points: 20.8
    • Packers implied points: 23.8


    Justin Herbert: Herbert completed 27 passes against the Lions last week, the fourth time this season he has hit that total, giving him access to elite upside.

    The Packers blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the league, which is a layup for Kellen Moore’s offense to exploit. Jaire Alexander (shoulder) sat out last week, and if Green Bay is missing their top defender again, my ranking of Herbert at QB6 might not be high enough. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was the highest-scoring player at the position on the DFS main slate.

    Jordan Love: With a pair of touchdowns against the Steelers, Love posted his best fantasy day since September. But it shouldn’t matter to anyone.

    He couldn’t go through four quarters without flashing the flaws in his decision-making (52.5% complete with two interceptions), confirming that his floor is way too low to consider him roster-worthy in any single QB format.

    This matchup against the second-worst per-pass defense makes Love a low-end QB2 that I would play in Superflex settings, but that’s as optimistic as I can be.

    Running Backs

    Austin Ekeler: The all-world fantasy RB has scored five times in six games this season and set a season-high 19 carries last week against Detroit. He was stopped three times at the 1-yard line, meaning his productive night could have been even better.

    Ekeler has seen 22 targets over the past three weeks and should be considered as valuable as any player in fantasy outside of Christian McCaffrey moving forward.

    Aaron Jones: He was unable to build on a strong Week 9 performance, and now we’re back to worrying about the floor. On the bright side, this is a plus matchup, and Jones was targeted six times on 21 routes last week.

    Jones is a versatile back, which profiles him as a strong RB2 in this spot, but understand that he is far from safe.

    AJ Dillon: Big plays are rare when Green Bay has the ball, so Dillon’s 40-yard run last week against the Steelers (his first rush of more than 15 yards this season) was good to see. Of course, he averaged under 4.0 yards per carry on his other attempts and pulled in just one of his three targets.

    Dillon’s size and Jones’ lack of health were supposed to make the former a back that you could Flex when you’re stuck, with the thought being that a TD plunge could salvage his day. With one score on 115 touches this season, I’m here to tell you that if you think you’re chasing TD equity by holding onto Dillon, you’ve misread the situation.

    I’m holding onto Dillon in most situations, but if you play in a shallow league and need every spot on your bench to hold weekly upside, I could see cutting ties with him.

    Wide Receivers

    Keenan Allen: Week 10’s star racked up 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 11 catches against the Lions, reminding us just how dominant he can be (this was his first 100-yard game since September).

    The Packers have limited WR1s in consecutive weeks — Diontae Johnson and Cooper Kupp totaled just three catches and 65 yards on 11 targets — but that’s not nearly enough to scare me in the least. Allen is my WR6 this week.

    Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton: In a shootout against the Lions, both Johnston and Guyton played 35 snaps, caught four passes, and scored. Not ideal.

    All we ask for in Los Angeles is separation when it comes to the WR2 role behind Allen (sans Joshua Palmer), and, if anything, that role is getting more cloudy, not clearer.

    MORE: Jalen Guyton Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 11

    Both of these receivers deserve to be rostered. Neither of them deserves to be played.

    Stacking your bench with exposure to offenses with upside is a sharp play, but don’t get carried away — neither owns a stable role that we can count on.

    Christian Watson: You, me, and Watson — we all have the same number of games with 40+ receiving yards over the past month. If Watson is currently a part of your process when it comes to determining your Flex position, you’re holding onto your priors too long.

    We are through 10 weeks, and Watson has made one play of note…one.

    Romeo Doubs: The second-year WR has now scored in each of Green Bay’s past three losses. We saw Doubs earn targets at a high rate as September came to a close, but that’s a thing of the past with a handful of mouths for an underwhelming Love to feed (no more than five targets in four of his past five games).

    Doubs is my highest-ranked PacKer receiver this week, but he’s still on the outside looking in at my top 40.

    Jayden Reed: In Week 10, Reed scored on a pass intended for him for the first time since Week 2 and continues to show promise. He has caught 15 of 18 targets over the past month, the rare efficient piece in this otherwise depressing offense.

    If Reed had a path to targets, I’d be interested in considering his raw talent as a Flex option, but he doesn’t. Last week, eight different Packers saw 3-7 targets. With a lack of quality and quantity for all members of this passing game, none of them are worth your mental energy — even in a plus matchup.

    If you have a good read on this pass-catching corps, bet the props or build a top-heavy DFS lineup. I’m not going there in a season-long setting where a loss this time of year can cost you a playoff berth.

    Tight Ends

    Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr.: The tough part here is that, by themselves, the Everett or Parham profile would interest me. But together on a team that also gave 14 routes to the vaunted tandem of Stone Smartt/Nick Vannett, makes it impossible to go this route with any sort of conviction.

    Parham held the edge over Everett in snaps last week (32-24), but it was the latter with a 17-15 advantage in routes.

    The TE position is difficult enough when you have one low-volume option to deal with (see Musgrave, Luke), and when that tiny pie is split into pieces, you’re often left wanting more.

    I prefer Everett to Parham if you’re going down this road in a DFS setting, but neither is of much interest to me in redraft.

    Luke Musgrave: We are looking at the definition of a blob tight end. There are some athletic tools to buy into with the rookie, and they’ve allowed him to make three splash plays over the past two weeks. However, over the course of four quarters, he is consistently handicapped by poor QB play and inexperience.

    We’ve seen Musgrave make plays, which is enough to keep him on your radar as a player to keep tabs on if you’re in the streaming game. But until we see consistent usage or efficiency, he’s going to rank outside of my top 15 at the position.

    Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

    • Spread: Dolphins -12.5
    • Total: 46.5
    • Raiders implied points: 17
    • Dolphins implied points: 29.5


    Tua Tagovailoa: As good as the Dolphins offense has been, it may surprise you that Tagovailoa has as many weeks this season finishing outside of the top 15 as inside the top nine (three apiece). There are some red flags to consider for fantasy purposes:

    • Under 10 rush yards in every game this season
    • Under 35 pass attempts in four of his past five games

    I’m raising the points as a way to caution you for the future, not the present. Coming off of a bye and facing a leaky Raiders defense, I have zero Week 11 concerns. That said, the Dolphins get the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens (in Baltimore) from Weeks 15-17, a potentially fatal flaw during the fantasy postseason.

    On Monday morning, you might have the opportunity to sell Tagovailoa as a QB who is past his bye, has elite playmakers, and is coming off of a huge week. That’s a tempting package for a manager looking for a short-term spurt to make the playoffs.

    Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have not yet had their byes — a window could open for you to get creative to acquire either of them in a deal with Tagovailoa and another piece in the right situation. Keep an eye on it.

    Running Backs

    Josh Jacobs: This season has been disappointing from Jacobs after what he gave us last season, and, to be honest, I’m not sure it gets better in a significant way for the stretch run.

    His 53 carries over the past two weeks need to be taken with a grain of salt — they came against the dumpster fire New York franchises where the Raiders were operating in a favorable script. Even then, remove a single run from those two games, and Jacobs averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

    MORE: Josh Jacobs Fantasy Value Week 11

    The role is safe, and the ability to find paydirt is a skill we know he has, so don’t take this as me saying that Jacobs is in any danger of being benched in fantasy lineups. He’s not. But I do think the floor is worth mentioning as leagues begin to approach their trade deadline.

    With just seven catches over the past five games after grabbing 23 passes in his first five, the versatility seems to be fading, which just adds another path to failure.

    I’m starting Jacobs if I have him; I’m just shorting his stock the rest of the way if I have the opportunity to do so.

    De’Von Achane: All reports suggest that the explosive rookie has been setback-free during his rehab (knee) and should be all systems go for this week after a stay on injured reserve.

    I’m not sure I have to sell you on what Achane is capable of: Three straight 100-yard games and 12.1 yards per carry this season. Yes, that’s quite good. #analysis

    Now, those games did come against the Broncos, Bills, and Giants. Those defenses scare exactly no one, but the production is still off-the-charts impressive. The production isn’t sticky, but his 11.5 touches in his last two games might be, given the output of Raheem Mostert and the presence of Jeff Wilson Jr.

    This matchup very much looks like those three that Achane exploited, making this a tough spot to sell you on extreme regression.

    I have Achane ranked as an RB2 and a starter in all formats. The range of outcomes is wide due to the combination of big-play upside and touch downside. I’m off of him for projected chalk reasons in DFS, but you’re locking him in for your season-long formats without much of a second thought.

    Raheem Mostert: Through 10 weeks, Mostert is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has scored 13 times. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal in posting seven top-20 finishes and a trio of top-3 finishes.

    In the midst of ALL of that production, he has two games with more than 13 carries and just two games with more than three targets. Achane is coming back this week to muddy this backfield against a defense that rarely creates pressure and can be systematically picked apart through the air (bottom 10 in opponent CMP%).

    There are a lot of paths to failure here. Of course, a Miami blowout win is also a possibility, and that would allow both Achane and Mostert to produce in a significant way. With my rankings, I’m sitting on the fence a bit — Achane is a high-end RB2, while Mostert checks in as a low-end RB2, both carrying a reasonably wide range of outcomes due to a lower touch projection.

    Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed: With Achane back, I don’t believe either of these backs is worth rostering long-term. Maybe you want to hold onto Wilson through this week, wanting Achane to prove his health, and that’s fine. But if you need roster flexibility this week, I have zero concerns about cutting ties with either of these backs ahead of Week 11.

    Wide Receivers

    Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers: Over the past three games, Adams hasn’t been overly productive (6.2 points per game), but he has out-targeted Meyers 27-8 and seems to have reestablished himself as the top option in this very limited passing game.

    I’m treating Adams the same way I treated Olave when we saw a return to elite target counts without much production in Weeks 6-8 — grin and bear it.

    These targets are empty calories right now, and they may continue to be as much. But you drafted Adams with the thought that his talent could overcome QB question marks, and I’m okay with doubling down on that bet and viewing him as a mid-range WR2.

    The math on Meyers is a little less optimistic. The quality of targets in Vegas these days is obviously low, which makes his sudden dip in quantity all the more concerning. Over his past three games, 42.8% of Meyers’ fantasy production came on a single run that resulted in a score. Outside of that, he’s been useless, and I’m worried that this is the start of a struggle that is prolonged.

    I have Meyers ranked as a very low-end Flex option this week, next to another impossible-to-trust receiver who has enough talent to keep him on the fringes of relevance in Calvin Ridley.

    Tyreek Hill: By no means am I sweating the dud in Germany to open Week 9 (his third finish outside of the top 25 this season). He caught at least eight passes for the third straight game, and I’ll trust that volume with Hill’s skill set every single time.

    Hill has yet to be held under 110 receiving yards in consecutive games this season, a trend I think he can extend through this week against a Raiders defense that rarely makes opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.

    Jaylen Waddle: You didn’t pay up for Waddle this summer with the thought that, through 10 weeks, he’d have five finishes as WR30 or worse and only one finish better than WR12.

    It’s worth noting that Waddle suffered a knee injury in Germany, though all signs point to him being a full-go in this spot. The volume has been acceptable (6+ targets in five straight games, 8.6 targets per game over that run), and with his aDOT down 19.2% from last season, I think his bump in reception rate is here to stay, if not improve further.

    MORE: Why Jaylen Waddle Is the Miami Dolphins’ Most Important Player in Season’s Second Half

    I’m of the belief that Waddle’s second half of the season looks better than the first half, and that starts on Sunday – he’s a strong WR2 for me!

    Tight Ends

    Michael Mayer: The touchdown was a thing of beauty last week and showed some of the physical profile that this rookie holds as he develops. I’m excited to watch Mayer grow with time… that time just isn’t right now.

    That score was Mayer’s first of the season, and it’s been more than a month since the last time he reached 20 receiving yards. He doesn’t matter in redraft leagues, and I have a hard time seeing that change anytime soon.

    New York Giants at Washington Commanders

    • Spread: Commanders -9.5
    • Total: 37.5
    • Giants implied points: 14
    • Commanders implied points: 23.5


    Sam Howell: Some players are placed in perfect spots for our game and others are Bijan Robinson. Howell has cleared 40 pass attempts in six of his past seven games and has posted five top 10s in his past six.

    In addition to cruising past 300 passing yards in each of his past three games, Howell’s on pace for nearly 300 yards on the ground.

    At price, he’s a great DFS buy against the fourth-worst pass defense in terms of yards per attempt. It’s difficult to rank his mean outcome better than QB12 this week, but that’s more a product of plus-matchups for this range of quarterbacks.

    Here’s how I have the back end of the QB1 tier stacking up this week:

    9) Jared Goff vs. CHI
    10) C.J. Stroud vs. ARI
    11) Kyler Murray at HOU
    12) Sam Howell vs. Giants
    13) Brock Purdy vs. TB
    14) Trevor Lawrence vs. TEN

    Running Backs

    Saquon Barkley: The star running back is coming off his worst week of the season (RB36), but the one-sided nature of that game certainly factored in.

    The Giants’ offense pretty clearly caps Barkley’s upside, but they weren’t exactly elevating talent in the month prior to the Week 10 dud, and his average positional finish over that stretch was RB14.

    Barkley racked up 118 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with the Commanders, a game in which he and Darren Waller combined for 56.1% of the Giants’ offensive yardage back in Week 7. Now with Waller out, Barkley’s usage rate alone makes him a usable fantasy piece.

    Thanks to his one-play potential, Barkley comes in as a strong RB2 for me.

    Brian Robinson Jr.: I’m running away if I can. I don’t want to say that Robinson’s stock is destined to experience a GameStop-like stock drop, but I’m not not saying that is an outcome that I’m considering. How worried am I?

    Through 10 weeks, Robinson is scoring once every 17.6 touches. That number might not be shocking without context, but allow me to help.

    Robinson, 2022: TD once every 71.3 touches
    Barry Sanders, 1991: TD once every 22.5 touches

    Yes. This season, Robinson’s per-touch scoring rate is 22% greater than Sanders’ highest-scoring season of his Hall of Fame career. That’s a real stat.

    Robinson is a fine player. He’s also the lead back (barely last week, 31-29 snap edge over Antonio Gibson) in an aggressive offense. Understood. But what he is doing is so far beyond unsustainable.

    Robinson has one game with more than 10 carries since Week 4, and yet, he’s finished as a viable fantasy starter in every game over that stretch thanks to crossing the goal line.

    When (not if) the TD luck dries up, there are major floor concerns. Due to committees and tough matchups, Robinson still finds himself inside of my top 25 (barely), but there isn’t a player in the sport I’m more aggressively shopping.

    Antonio Gibson: Three straight games with five receptions and a snap count trending in the right direction have Gibson back on PPR rosters, and I understand it.

    Last week, he held a 23-20 advantage over Robinson in routes run and has caught 17 of 18 targets over the past month-plus.

    If I have a powerhouse PPR team, I’m throwing Gibson at the end of my bench. I’m not expecting to play him, but in that situation, his floor is palatable for an offense that ranks top five in pass rate above expectation.

    Wide Receivers

    NYG WR: There’s no reason to roster any of these receivers. At all.

    Tight end Daniel Bellinger led the G-Men in receiving yards last week with two catches for 34 yards. Why would we expect anything to improve?

    If you want to buy the dip on Jalin Hyatt in dynasty, by all means, go for it. Otherwise, this WR room requires zero of your brain cells.

    Terry McLaurin: Process over results. McLaurin has seen at least eight targets in five straight games (a total he hit just once in his first five games), and that seems unlikely to change anytime soon with Washington operating at a top-five rate in terms of pass rate above expectation.

    McLaurin earned 25% of the targets when these teams met in Week 7, and that has his floor projecting well for me this week. He caught six passes for 90 yards in that game, one in which Howell played well below expectations (his second-lowest QBR of the season).

    McLaurin’s a fine Flex play if Howell were to struggle again, but I think him accessing his ceiling is far more likely. He’s yet to finish inside the top 15 at the position this season, but I think that changes on Sunday.

    Jahan Dotson: Washington’s second-year WR flopped in a major way last week in Seattle — zero catches on two targets — after earning 26 targets over his previous three games. Can he regain that usage level and move past the dud of Week 10?

    I think so. That spike in targets started with eight opportunities against these Giants in Week 7. He only managed to turn those looks into five catches and 43 yards, but if you’re telling me that I get eight targets, I’d happily roll the dice on a skill set like Dotson’s.

    He ran a route on 93.6% of Howell’s dropbacks last week, and with us expecting big things out of this pass game, Dotson should be viewed as a Flex play with a wide range of outcomes. For reference, I prefer him to Jordan Addison (potential Pat Surtain matchup) and Gabe Davis.

    Curtis Samuel: In his return to action, Samuel turned six targets into six yards in a reminder to us all that he needs to not be rostered. The creativity in getting him the ball is long gone, and the per-target production is nowhere near fantasy-friendly in any format.

    Tight Ends

    Logan Thomas: You’ve made it this far in the Book of Soppe, Week 11 edition, so I’ll throw you a changeup here. Drop the beat!

    They call him LT, but he’s no Lawrence Taylor
    Rostering Thomas isn’t exciting, but it’s not a failure
    A handful of points is all you need, it’s a near lock
    Six finishes as TE13 or better is something of a shock
    I’m not here to tell you he’s great or a game-breaker
    But a high floor is part of the recipe, call me the fantasy baker
    Here to get you a W in Week 11, pick your team off the deck
    Plug in the Commander of the field, playing at FedEx

    Maybe you liked that. Probably not. Either way, it kept my editors entertained, and I’m just here to spread the smiles as best I can!

    Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

    • Spread: Cowboys -10.5
    • Total: 42.5
    • Cowboys implied points: 26.5
    • Panthers implied points: 16


    Dak Prescott: Fresh off of one of the greatest lyrical runs in the history of history in that Logan Thomas preview, I’ll leave the Prescott breakdown to a less accomplished wordsmith in Lil’ Wayne:

    “What’s understood ain’t gotta be explained.
    So for those who understand, meet Rayne.”

    OK, so I took a little creative liberty with that last word, but Rayne Dakota Prescott has been nothing short of special in the three weeks since the bye (1,082 passing yards with 11 TDs), and now he gets the third-worst scoring defense in the league.

    Prescott is my QB5 this week, and the only excuse I can see for not playing him would be “too chalky” in a DFS situation.

    Bryce Young: Just a reminder that not all development is linear. Young is still a dynasty option, even if he has three times as many games with multiple interceptions as he does multiple touchdowns.

    As far as 2023 is concerned, Young can be benched for running backs with a high touch floor or receivers with 100+ air-yard projection in Superflex situations.

    Running Backs

    Tony Pollard: *BREAKING NEWS*

    By the power vested in me by the brain trust here at PFN, I now pronounce “rostering Tony Pollard” the 10th circle of hell.

    There’s simply nothing you can do at this point. Pollard has one top-25 finish at the position since September (RB38 last week) but continues to get work for a strong offense. In Week 10, Pollard was …

    • Not one of the three Cowboys with a rushing score
    • Not one of the four Cowboys with a 20+ yard touch

    He has touched the ball 151 times since he last scored. That includes three instances in which the Cowboys scored at least 38 points.

    The process of starting Pollard remains solid, if for no other reason than it’s hard to find this sort of usage (18.2 touches per game) as you travel down the rankings.

    I’m not strong enough mentally to bench his role, let alone in a good matchup like this. There’s no way I’d consider selling Pollard for pennies on the dollar. There’s also no way that I’m comfortable starting him in a must-win situation.

    That, friends, is why those of us with Pollard are living in the 10th circle of hell. I can provide one glimmer of hope — Dante and Virgil did end up escaping from hell. There was the intentional mentioning of stars at the very end, a medieval symbol for divine wisdom.

    So could it be that we are being tested, and those of us who chose to stick it out will be rewarded with time? Am I way overthinking this because I’m up to my eyeballs in Pollard shares?

    He’s dropping down my ranks, but Pollard is still an RB2 for me in all formats.

    Chuba Hubbard: It’s clear that Hubbard is offensive play-caller Thomas Brown’s preferred running back. It’s also clear that this team isn’t built to support a running back.

    Game script is always going to be an issue (this week is no different), and without absolutely elite volume, it’s hard to start Hubbard with any level of confidence.

    Over the past three weeks, Hubbard has netted 109 yards on 40 carries. That’s a whopping 2.7 ypc for a team that needs a GPS to find the red zone (41 points total in those three games).

    Hubbard should remain rostered because he’s a starting RB, but he’s in danger of being ranked behind multiple backs in Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Chicago.

    Miles Sanders: He played 23 snaps to Hubbard’s 30 on Thursday night, closing the gap in a meaningless development for fantasy managers. Sanders is a highly-paid specialist; he ran a route on 82.6% of his snaps last week and my under 21.5 rushing yards bet was never a sweat (two carries for -5 yards).

    MORE: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 11

    Sanders is rostered in a ton of leagues. He doesn’t need to be. Use his roster space for a player with a more clear path to any semblance of upside.

    CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is great, we know that. On Sunday, he became the first player in the Super Bowl era to have back-to-back-to-back games with at least 10 catches and 150 yards. He has been handed the ball in two of those games and has four touchdowns over this run — elite.

    You’re playing him. That’s easy.

    I want to give the Cowboys a round of applause for knowing that this very niche record was within reach and force-feeding Lamb a pair of targets to open the fourth quarter of a 42-7 game to get him there. Some underappreciated intern or someone along those lines was likely responsible for bringing this opportunity to light, and I want him/her to get a mention!

    Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks: Both of these secondary receivers scored in the blowout win over the Giants, but they’re headed in very different directions.

    Cooks’ volume is a general concern (the 10 targets on Sunday came on the heels of 4.1 targets per game), but with a score in three of his past four games, there’s something there.

    MORE: How ‘One Play’ Could Be the Game-Changer for Cowboys’ WR Michael Gallup

    On the flip side, Gallup simply made the most of two targets. He has eight targets in total during this Prescott hot streak, a level of usage that isn’t near fantasy-relevant.

    Jalen Tolbert held a six-snap edge over Gallup through three quarters last week, hinting that Gallup is closer to the WR4 than the WR2 role in Dallas. Cooks ranks outside of my top 40 at the position and isn’t a receiver I’m currently comfortable flexing.

    Adam Thielen: We were spoiled early in the season, and that set an unfair expectation. Thielen’s average position finish from Weeks 2-6 was WR11, but since returning from the break, he’s 0 for 3 when it comes to posting top 30 weeks.

    That’s life with a rookie quarterback. Thielen’s early-season production isn’t likely to come back, but things should be better than they’ve been. He posted a 29.4% target share in the disappointing effort last week, usage that is comforting.

    Thielen is a middling WR2 for me this week in a tough matchup, with the hope being that game script helps him bounce back from these recent struggles.

    Tight Ends

    Jake Ferguson: The Prescott heater has translated well to Ferguson, as he has posted three straight top-10 finishes. He scored in all three of those games and has totaled 21 targets in the process, firmly separating himself from the vaunted TE blob.

    Would I love to see him with more than two 50-yard games on his résumé? Of course, but such is life at the tight end position. I’m comfortable in labeling Ferguson as a top-10 option at the position both this week and moving forward.

    Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

    • Spread: Jaguars -6.5
    • Total: 39.5
    • Titans implied points: 16.5
    • Jaguars implied points: 23


    Will Levis: The Jaguars were lit up by Brock Purdy last week, and with that fresh in our mind, I understand the temptation to roll the dice on a talented rookie facing them. I’ll pass.

    After throwing four touchdowns in his NFL debut, Levis hasn’t found the end zone on 78 pass attempts and looks how you’d expect a rookie to look: sporadic and inconsistent. On the plus side, 39 pass attempts is enough volume to hold meaningful upside.

    This looks like a Derrick Henry spot, and with that, Levis’ floor is too scary to flirt with given his wide range of outcomes on a per-pass basis.

    Trevor Lawrence: This is a great matchup. The Jaguars’ WR room might finally be healthy, and Travis Etienne Jr. is running hard and demanding attention.

    If you had given me that profile back in August, I’d tell you that I’d have Lawrence as a top-five QB with ease. Heck, if August Kyle was feeling spicy, he may have even told you that Lawrence would lead the position in scoring in that spot.

    Life comes at you fast, though. Lawrence has thrown multiple TD passes against one opponent this season (Colts) and has thrown for 300 yards just once. He’s struggling in every respect this season and hasn’t been getting any help from his friends (5.3% drop rate).

    Like Pollard, I think it’s very possible that Lawrence peaks during the fantasy playoffs — Buccaneers and Panthers in Weeks 16-17 — and rewards those with an absurd level of loyalty. That fading hope is why I’m still rostering Lawrence, but as my QB14 in Week 11, I’m not starting him until he gives me a reason to.

    Running Backs

    Derrick Henry: The King is coming off of a 20-yard, 12-touch lineup-killing performance in Tampa Bay. This right after he worked his way back into our good graces with three straight games north of 100 scrimmage yards.

    I’m not expecting one bad game to turn into a slump. He’s racked up at least 109 rushing yards and a touchdown in four straight against the Jags. That stretch includes a pair of games with multiple rushing touchdowns. You can count on Henry in all formats.

    No. I don’t care that Jacksonville kept Christian McCaffrey out of the end zone. Henry is my RB6 this week and is a true threat to top the position in fantasy points this week.

    Tyjae Spears: If Henry’s snap-to-carry count wasn’t historically high, Spears’ athleticism and snap share would have had him on Flex radars a month ago.

    In Week 10, he handled a direct snap for Tennessee’s first rush attempt of the game, and yet, it was another game with no more than 11 touches, just like every other week this season.

    Spears is exactly the type of RB struggling dynasty managers should be trading for this time of year. It’s clear that his impact this season will be minimal at best, but it’s equally as clear that he is poised for big things sooner than later.

    Go ahead and offer an older back with a stable role this season to the highly competitive team that is stashing Spears. They improve their win expectancy in 2023, and you breathe life into your forward-looking squad.

    Travis Etienne Jr.: Feel free to write off his 44-yard performance in a 31-point loss to the 49ers last week. Etienne was averaging 22.3 touches per game prior to Week 10 and had scored seven times in his previous four games.

    Jacksonville’s passing game is broken right now, which puts Etienne in a great spot when it comes to safe volume. Should the pass game correct itself, his tough count may decline, but the scoring equity and quality of carries would increase by more than enough to offset any concerns.

    Etienne is easily an RB1 the rest of the way and could prove to be a league-winner with Jacksonville fighting for the division.

    Wide Receivers

    DeAndre Hopkins: The future Hall of Famer scored 32.8 fantasy points on six targets from Will Levis back in Week 8, but in the two games since, his 19 targets have resulted in just 12.2 points.

    The usage remains strong. That’s here to stay, given the lack of other options in this offense. An aggressive Jaguars defense could eliminate the big play from Hopkins, but it could just as easily result in a high catch count.

    There is a wide range of outcomes for Nuk this week, given that the game script could go in any direction. If Henry is rolling, this could be one of those 25 pass-attempt games, which means Hopkins would have a tough time returning a profit on my strong WR2 ranking of him.

    On the flip side, if Lawrence finally heats up and the Titans are playing catch up, this could be Hopkins’ most involved game of the season. I’m embracing his variance in DFS, where I expect Henry to garner much of the Titans-related ownership, and starting him in season-long spots where, ideally, I have “safe” options around him.

    Christian Kirk: Even with Lawrence playing a few notches below expectation, Kirk continues to get it done. Last week against the Niners, he totaled 104 yards and earned 35.5% of the targets. He is the clear-cut WR1 in this offense, and while that will be impacted to a degree whenever Zay Jones returns, we have to assume that he’s “the guy” until proven otherwise.

    Kirk’s role in the slot has him flirting with a 70% catch rate, which he’s done while maintaining his per-catch upside (29+ yard catch in six straight games). If you wanted to label Kirk as a fantasy WR1 this week, I wouldn’t blame you. At the very worst, he’s a strong WR2 who deserves to be locked into all starting lineups.

    Calvin Ridley: Those preseason highlight videos feel like decades ago at this point. Week 10 was the third time in four games in which Ridley failed to clear 30 receiving yards, and by earning just three targets, there really was no upside in the role he played against San Francisco.

    When the coaching staff was asked about getting their presumed WR1 more looks, the response focused on the penalties he has drawn and the value that hidden notes like that provide.

    MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

    That, in theory, makes sense, but if penalties suggest that the defense is having a hard time guarding him, why not keep pressing that button?

    Maybe this is a get-right spot in a plus matchup, but I’ve typed that before. At least three other times.

    Ridley has fallen outside of my top 30 this week. Yes, I’m treating him like a little child. I’m sending him to his room to let him think about what he has done. When I go up to check on him in a week, there are only two potential outcomes:

    1. He felt remorse, cleaned his room, and is allowed back into my lineups.
    2. He snuck out late at night, went to a concert, and has forced me to put adoption on the table.

    Can you tell I’m not a parent in real life? I care about my fantasy teams like I would a family, and Pop Sop runs a tight ship. Shape up or ship out Mr. Ridley!

    Zay Jones: This season from Jones is exactly why leagues need to have an IR slot, if not multiple. He caught five balls on seven targets in an encouraging season opener, but this knee injury has limited him to three grabs on 11 targets ever since.

    I maintain that he is a roster-worthy player when active and maybe a risk/reward Flex play if this team can start moving in the right direction. That said, given the extended absence this injury has caused, there’s a 0% chance I’m playing Jones in any capacity when he finally returns to the field.

    Tight Ends

    Evan Engram: Last week against San Fran was just the second time this season that Engram finished outside the top 14 tight ends, a level of stability that has him heading my third tier at the position with LaPorta.

    Engram lit up the Titans for 11 catches, 162 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 14 last season. While that sort of outburst isn’t likely this time around, I’m very comfortable with his floor and think he has a real shot at his best finish of the season this week.

    Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

    • Spread: Texans -4
    • Total: 47.5
    • Cardinals implied points: 21.8
    • Texans implied points: 25.8


    Kyler Murray: We got the whole Murray experience in his return to action, and frankly, I missed it. Some iffy moments with his arm, a chaotic scramble to save the game, a rushing TD vulture by Clayton Tune, and a big play late to set up the game-winning field goal.

    Murray managers experienced every emotion last week, and that’s what I think we can expect moving forward.

    This team lacks the supporting cast to make Murray a consistent fantasy option, but his athletic gifts are too much to ignore in what could easily be a back-and-forth game. I expect the passing game to improve exponentially as he works in with the young talent. That could make him a very interesting option in a key week in most fantasy leagues (Week 16 at Bears).

    We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it, but for Week 11, Murray is my QB11, one spot behind the Rookie of the Year favorite that he will be sharing the field with on Sunday.

    C.J. Stroud: The encore performance from his historic Week 9 against the Bucs was a ho-hum 356-yard outing without his WR1 against a good Bengals defense.

    The game did feature a bad interception that served as a reminder that Stroud still has under 200 completions on his NFL résumé, but as long as those blips don’t turn into bad halves and games, fantasy managers should be all systems go!

    He’s making decisions with conviction and clearly has the trust of the coaching staff behind him. Combine that with an underrated pass-catching corps and a run game that (prior to last week) struggles in a significant way, Stroud checks almost every box you could possibly ask him to.

    There are a few tough tests left on his rookie exam (Jets in Week 14 and Browns in Week 16), but with the Titans twice over the final month of the season, Stroud might not only be the reason for your late-season surge to the playoffs, he could be the reason you win the whole thing!

    Running Backs

    James Conner: If you watched last week’s game, you know what I’m about to say. If not, feel free to be happy with what Conner gave you in his return to action.

    With under a minute left, the Falcons (up by one point) were begging Conner to waltz into the end zone and give their offense the ball back with a chance to win. Conner, however. elected to pull up short.

    It ended up being the right decision because Arizona converted the game-winning chip shot field goal, but I’m not so sure it was the right play — and not just because I have a few shares of Conner.

    In a tie game, I’d 100% back the move. But in a trailing situation and turning down the opportunity to take the lead by more than a field goal with under a minute left and Desmond Ridder on the other sideline felt… well, it felt like playing with fire.

    No harm, no foul in the end for the Cardinals, but that coin-flip decision ended up being a 6.3-point swing for Conner managers, which could loom large.

    In any event, Conner held a decisive 41-14 snap edge over Keaontay Ingram in his return, an advantage I expect to grow with time. He didn’t see a single target last week, which is worth monitoring, but his bell-cow role lands him in starting lineups across the board.

    Dameon Pierce: A bulky ankle cost Pierce a second straight game, and Devin Singletary went bonkers (161 yards and a touchdown on 31 touches). The Texans scored 69 points in those two Pierce DNPs, 17 more than they scored in their last three with him healthy.

    I’m not saying those two things are correlated, but there’s no denying that more has been put on Stroud’s plate with Pierce banged up, and that he’s made the most of it.

    If Pierce returns to action this week, I’d give him the slight edge over Singletary in carry count and a slight disadvantage in terms of routes. In that event, I’d have Singletary ranked higher by a few spots, but neither would crack my top 25 at the position.

    Devin Singletary: One week after letting down the fantasy community, Singletary dominated the Bengals, likely turning this into a true committee when Pierce returns to action.

    MORE: Week 11 RB Waiver Wire Targets — Top Players To Add Include Devin Singletary, Ty Chandler, and Keaton Mitchell

    Should this be his backfield alone again this week, he’d elevate to a low-end RB2 against a below-average defense in both yards per carry and red-zone TD rate.

    Wide Receivers

    Marquise Brown: We spent all week talking ourselves into the Murray/Brown connection and … one catch on four targets for 28 yards.

    Hollywood hasn’t reached 50 yards in over a month, and while I still think there is potential here, I want to see more from Murray through the air (19/32 with zero TDs) before putting Brown into my starting lineup.

    Brown sits just outside of my top 30 — give me the scoring savant that is Courtland Sutton or Tank Dell in this game over him.

    Michael Wilson: The 6’2” rookie saw six targets in Murray’s debut and had a 15-yard touchdown called back (ruled down inches short after review), a reasonable showing for a player with upside in his profile.

    In a perfect world, you’re not counting on any member of this passing game in a significant way. That said, I do think Wilson is worth stashing in deeper leagues. He posted a 91.7% route participation rate, and the Cardinals have motivation to feed him opportunities in an otherwise lost season.

    Wilson is more of an option in the DFS streets than anything as we come down the stretch. I don’t love him in this spot, but next week against a Rams defense that ranks bottom 10 in pressure rate and has the sixth-highest average depth of opponent throw? (Sorry not sorry about giving you an early DFS lean for Week 12.)

    Rondale Moore: I’m slightly interested in Moore, having led the WR room in targets during Murray’s season debut, but those eight targets netted just 43 yards, and he wasn’t handed the ball for the first time since Week 4.

    I understand wanting to have a cheap bet on Murray’s impact on this offense — I don’t understand doing it by way of Moore. He’s never going to be near my starting lineup, so why roster him?

    Nico Collins: The presumed top receiver in Houston got a relatively small piece of the pie in Stroud’s explosion in Week 9 (three catches for 54 yards and a touchdown) and was then unable to play last week (calf).

    While I believe Collins is the top threat in this burgeoning passing game when fully healthy, there is no denying the risk that he carries. True alpha pass catchers in pass-heavy offenses (think Stefon Diggs or Travis Kelce types) are able to produce strong fantasy numbers even when they don’t find the end zone.

    That’s not in Collins’ profile right now — his fantasy point totals in his past four games without a score:

    Week 8 at CAR: 5.0 fantasy points (WR70)
    Week 6 vs. NO: 10.0 (WR32)
    Week 5 at ATL: 5.4 (WR52)
    Week 3 at JAX: 4.4 (WR75)

    That sort of floor is scary, especially when building in health concerns after missing a game. I still have Collins ranked as a WR2 thanks to how this offense is functioning and a plus-matchup, but I can’t lie to you — there’s a wide range of outcomes to take into consideration.

    Tank Dell: I’m very confident that Dell’s 32.5% target share from the past two weeks isn’t going to prove sticky (Robert Woods missed Week 9 and Collins last week), but his ability to earn targets is certainly ahead of where I thought we’d be at any point in his rookie season, let alone before Thanksgiving.

    Dell has proven to be a legitimate deep threat (15.0 yards per catch this season, drew a 42-yard pass interference last week), and with Stroud’s aDOT up 42.5% over the past two weeks, that’s a skill set that will carry significant fantasy appeal.

    Keep an eye on the health of this pass-catcher room as a whole. If a receiver sits, Dell will move inside my top 30 at the position.

    Right now, with that not expected to be the case, I have him outside of that tier, understanding that a dip in target share combined with a matchup against a defense that has allowed one completion of more than 31 yards over their past four games is a dangerous mix (below average opponent aDOT for the season).

    Noah Brown: I understand that we’ve had a DJ Moore spurt, a historic run from A.J. Brown, and amazing consistency from Stefon Diggs/Amon-Ra St. Brown, but I’d argue that all things considered, this two-game run from Brown — 13 catches on 14 targets for 325 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 9 and 10 — is as impressive as anything we’ve seen this season.

    Maybe it’s his size compared to cornerbacks or possibly sharing a huddle with Dell, but whatever the case is, Brown (6’2”, 215 pounds) looks the part of a consistent fantasy option. Of course, prior to this run, he had eight catches for 114 yards in three games, so let’s not go overboard.

    My concern for Brown is similar to what I voiced about Dell: What does his role look like when everyone is healthy?

    That said, he did run seven more routes and earn five more targets than Woods last week, a sign that points to him as the team’s preferred option as the WR3.

    He is certainly worthy of a roster spot, but I’m proceeding with caution in a week where many of the viable receivers are in action. Brown checks in outside of my top 35 at the position — ranking in the same tier as receivers like Gabe Davis and Zay Flowers that play for potent offenses but also carry a wide range of outcomes.

    Tight Ends

    Trey McBride: I don’t care who you are or what position you play, any three-week stretch where you are constantly on the field and being targeted on one of every three routes is a thing of beauty.

    That’s what this super sophomore has pulled off, and it put a bow on the impressive run by setting up the game-winning field goal last week against the Falcons with a 33-yard grab (eight catches for 131 yards).

    Arizona is in need of stability when it comes to pass catchers, and with Murray back under center, that role sees a massive uptick in fantasy potential.

    For those keeping track at home, McBride, for this week at the very least, has moved himself out of the tight end blob and onto the “I feel good about playing this guy” tier at the position. He certainly looks the part, and the Cardinals haven’t been shy about scheming things in his direction.

    Dalton Schultz: I know Brown has been getting the love of late and that Dell looks like a real receiver, but Stroud’s growth has had the greatest fantasy impact on Schultz.

    After opening the season with three straight finishes outside of the top 25 at the position, Schultz has finished five of his past six games inside the top 10. Let me say that again, five out of six inside the top 10.

    The list of TEs to do that isn’t a list. It’s a single name, and that name is Dalton Schultz. He has elevated into the second tier at the position, which locks him into lineups across all formats with confidence.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

    • Spread: 49ers -11.5
    • Total: 41.5
    • Buccaneers implied points: 15
    • 49ers implied points: 26.5


    Baker Mayfield: Don’t look now, but Mayfield has been a QB1 in four straight games after posting just one such finish in his first five games this season. His connection with Mike Evans elevates his ceiling in a significant way, though his reliance on a big-play option like that is what creates a low floor that we could see in this brutal matchup.

    Mayfield is well off the radar in standard-sized leagues this week, but this is the last matchup he has that I truly fear for the next 1.5 months. Don’t write him off completely as someone who could matter for deeper leagues.

    Brock Purdy: Remember the three straight losses for the 49ers prior to the bye that had the general public panicking? Purdy put those fears to rest with a 19 for 26 showing in Jacksonville that saw him rack up 296 yards and three scores against a rested Jaguars defense.

    The QB6 finish was his highwater mark for the season, and while that sort of production is a little much to project moving forward, Purdy has four finishes this season in the 10-13 range, something I could see him consistently offering down the stretch.

    This is obviously a good matchup (seventh-most yards per pass attempt allowed), and with a healthy supporting cast, Purdy’s weekly floor is stronger than any other option in this tier of fantasy signal-callers.

    Starting a few players that won’t lose you your matchup holds value, and that’s exactly what you can count on from Purdy both this week and for the remainder of the 2023 season.

    Running Backs

    Rachaad White: I don’t like to throw around the “S” word very often, but White has earned it. He has posted four straight finishes inside of the top 20 at the position, producing over 6.5 fantasy points as a pass catcher in each of those contests.

    Over that stretch, he’s averaging 20.3 touches per game and gets home a different way every week:

    Week 10: 43-yard TD catch
    Week 9: Two one-yard TD runs
    Week 8: 28% reception share with a 100% catch rate

    Critics will point to the fact that White has 132 carries this season and is still searching for his first 20-yard gain. I say, imagine the fantasy upside if he accesses the big play on the ground!

    I’ll say it. White has been nothing short of special. At a position with crazy swings in role and production, White has been there for you every step of the way. He’s left us no choice but to rank him as a high-end RB2 who could be an RB1 over the final month (Panthers – Falcons – Packers – Jaguars – Saints).

    Christian McCaffrey: Imagine a world in which a running back averages 5.9 yards per carry, commands 37% of the targets, and — fantasy managers are complaining.

    “Complaining” might be a little strong, but I’m on more than a few group chats that were disgruntled about CMC failing to reach the end zone last week.

    McCaffrey is the best player in fantasy, and I promise you that he’ll be in the end zone sooner than later.

    Wide Receivers

    Mike Evans: He has seven fewer targets now than he had total receptions last season, and yet, he’s already matched his touchdown total (TD catch in three of his past four games).

    Evans’ scoring equity is as strong as any receiver in the league right now, which drives his weekly top-15 ranking. Ranking him highly, however, doesn’t make him a perfect player.

    Did you know that we are nearing a 13-month stretch in which Evans has one game with more than six receptions? How about that the one exception to that rule was a Week 17 game in which the Bucs were force-feeding him targets in an effort to get him past 1,000 yards for the season?

    That means that, within the flow of their “normal” offense, Evans holds a catch ceiling of six. That’s a small nit to pick, but it’s my job to keep you aware of both ceiling and floor cases.

    It’s been smooth sailing for the majority of this season. Just be careful in assuming that he’s on the list of the game’s safest options at the position.

    Chris Godwin: We entered the season expecting Godwin to be the consistent Buccaneers receiver, and he’s been that. It’s just been in a consistently underwhelming manner.

    The veteran has finished outside of the top 25 wide receivers in seven of nine games this season and has just one score on his ledger.

    The floor has been acceptable (Week 3 was the last time he finished outside the top 40), but in an era of wide-open offenses that encourage big plays from WRs, the lack of a ceiling is concerning.

    The 49ers are a top-six team in terms of time of possession and limiting opponent yards per pass attempt. This is a dangerous spot for a receiver who lacks one-play upside.

    Godwin is just inside of my top 35 receivers this week, ranking behind most of the others with consistent volume and ahead of the Gabe Davis’ of the world who rely on one play.

    Brandon Aiyuk: After scoring on the first drive on a jump ball of sorts, Aiyuk was hardly heard from last week in Jacksonville as the team welcomed Deebo Samuel back from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for a pair of games. For the game as a whole, Aiyuk earned a discouraging 11.1% target share.

    I’ve said it all season, and I’ll continue to say it: This is exactly what you signed up for.

    It’s going to be hard for an offense that relies on efficiency more so than volume to support an elite running back and three pass catchers. The lack of looks last season is a minor red flag, but nothing that I’m overreacting to.

    For DFS purposes and for betting, this receiver room requires a good amount of homework on a weekly basis to make your final decision. The process is easier in annual leagues — you play all your 49ers every week.

    Deebo Samuel: I think it’s cliche, but in this case, I think it’s true, so I’m going to use it.

    “Samuel means more to the 49ers than he does to fantasy teams.”


    That first set of numbers are the point totals for the 49ers when Samuel is active this season, and the second grouping represents the two games he missed.

    It’s a tiny sample, but there’s no denying that his versatility has a very Steph Curry feel to it in that the gravity of him makes life easier for everyone around him.

    Samuel ran for a score in his return from a shoulder injury. While that’s great, six of his seven touches didn’t gain more than nine yards.

    His one game with high-end receiving numbers this season came with Aiyuk banged up, something that is no longer the case. You’re playing a dangerous game in counting on any San Francisco pass catcher (games like last week where they all score don’t happen very often) in a one-week situation.

    The Bucs are a rare high-blitz, high-opponent-aDOT defense, and on a spreadsheet, that profiles as more of an Aiyuk spot than a Samuel one. You signed up for risk when you drafted Samuel, so you’re playing him every week and banking on the good weeks to outweigh the poor ones.

    Tight Ends

    Cade Otton: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If you want to talk yourself into Otton being a viable fantasy TE, you cite the one metric that all viable options share: playing time.

    As it turns out, you have to be on the field to score fantasy points, and with Week 10’s rates (95.4% of snaps and 85.7% route participation) in line with what Otton does every week, he certainly checks that important box.

    That’s a good place to start, but the optimism runs out in a hurry.

    Otton has been held under 30 yards six times this season, which means he needs to score to matter. Generally speaking, I don’t mind that profile in the right spot at the TE position, but as the fourth option in a Mayfield-led offense, you can do better.

    George Kittle: The 66-yard TD strike was perfect execution. Get a plus athlete moving vertically in single coverage and take your chances.

    The big play resulted in a strong fantasy week for Kittle, but he saw just three other targets. For the season, he has seen fewer than five targets in the majority of games, putting his floor well below that of the TEs he shares a tier with (Engram and Schultz).

    Much like his receiver teammates, Kittle’s range of outcomes is wide. Unlike his teammates, though, the down weeks aren’t lethal due to the position he plays. Plug in Kittle every single week and hope that the high-end performances come when your team needs them most.

    New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

    • Spread: Bills -7
    • Total: 40
    • Jets implied points: 16.5
    • Bills implied points: 23.5


    Josh Allen: As much as this team feels as if it is in flux with poor play and a change in the coaching staff, Allen’s fantasy value really isn’t in trouble. He hasn’t finished worse than QB15 since the season opener (yes, that was against these Jets) and has seven top-eight finishes, so far.

    The firing of OC Ken Dorsey is likely to have some sort of impact on Allen, but it’s difficult to project too much until we have some data to work with. Even if the change negatively impacts Allen, his stock isn’t going to drop to the point where you realistically have to make a decision.

    He’s still going to be a handful to tackle near the goal line, and his big arm is still a threat to rack up 275-plus yards through the air. Even if the moving pieces and matchup scare you, Allen isn’t going to fall lower than QB6 in my rankings and should still be started across the board in my opinion.

    Running Backs

    Breece Hall: We knew that finding running lanes would be tough for Hall the second Aaron Rodgers went down, but did you think it would be this tough?

    Hall doesn’t have a rush of more than 10 yards in over a month, and during that stretch, he’s picking up just 2.5 yards per carry. That could, however, all change on Sunday against the 29th-ranked yards-per-carry run defense.

    The hope of rushing upside is promising and is all I need to put Hall comfortably inside of my top 10 at the position this week. He has at least three catches in six straight games and 21 targets over his past four – a role that is supporting a stable floor.

    Lock and load Hall for this week. He might swing your matchup in the late slate of games.

    James Cook: After losing a fumble on his first carry of the game, Cook was sat down for a few possessions. I’m not sure that I buy that the benching lit a fire under him, but he did finish Week 10 with 109 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos and looked as good as the numbers suggest.

    MORE: Is It Time To Trade James Cook in Fantasy Football?

    The fact that he has one rushing score on 120 carries and is generally not used in the same zip code as the red zone is obviously a concern. That usage pattern prevents him from moving up my ranks, but it doesn’t stop him from being a weekly lineup lock – even in a tough matchup like this.

    Cook’s average finish has been in the low-end RB2 range this season, and that’s where I expect him to land this weekend.

    Latavius Murray: He ran for 68 yards and a score as he filled in for Cook during the short-term benching, but he wasn’t as involved when the starter returned.

    Murray is a roster-worthy player whose primary service to your team is that of a handcuff. Could you plug him in if you’re in a tough spot and pray for a touchdown? It’s possible, and that makes him more useful than a Tennessee Titans backup RB Tyjae Spears type, but barring serious roster issues, you should be aiming for a greater role from your Flex spot.

    Wide Receivers

    Garrett Wilson: I’m not sure how impressive Wilson continuing to return viable fantasy numbers, despite a dumpster fire of an offensive situation, gets talked about enough. He’s not having an overall monster season, but four-straight top-25 finishes in an offense like this is astounding.

    He caught all five of his targets and scored when these teams met back in September – in a game where Rodgers was lost for the season, and the Bills were reasonably healthy on the defensive side of the ball. I expect him to improve upon his WR22 finish from that week in this matchup and am comfortable starting him in all spots, including DFS.

    Stefon Diggs: If you’re worried about Diggs after a down week against the Broncos and Patrick Surtain, you’re new to this. It’s hard to go through an entire season without a dud, especially with a sporadic passer like Allen responsible for putting you in a position to succeed. Don’t worry about it.

    Prior to Week 10, Diggs had a touchdown or a dozen targets in seven straight games, and I believe he has every chance to start a new streak along those lines on Sunday. In the first game of the season, he accomplished both of those feats in defeat, catching 10 of 13 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.

    There’s no decision to be made here, you play Diggs, and you enjoy having the privilege to do so.

    Gabe Davis: Are we nearing “stop trying to make Gabe Davis happen” territory? He has failed to catch more than three passes in four of five games following a weird streak of consistency that saw him find paydirt in a career-best four straight games.

    He’s a situational play at best. I don’t mind rostering players like that, but you have to be confident in your evaluation process.

    He’s a great player to start when you’re facing that powerhouse team in your league that has the edge on you in almost every spot. He has the potential to double his projected output in the right matchups thanks to his game-breaking ability.

    Those big games, however, usually don’t come in tough matchups. He has overachieved against the Bucs, Jags, and Raiders this season. The Jets aren’t that.

    Naturally, Davis is always one play away from a big day, but at this point, I prefer Dotson (vs. NYG) in a similar role. Davis is my WR37 as we sit here today.

    Tight Ends

    Tyler Conklin: There is nothing exciting about Conklin, but on his way to clearing 55 yards for the fourth time in six games last week, he ran a route on 65.2% of Wilson’s dropbacks.

    Conklin’s going to win you a week, but there’s a decent chance he holds service at the position. And if your team is strong elsewhere, that skill set holds value.

    He’s not much different than Logan Thomas and is a viable streaming option if you’re stuck.

    Dalton Kincaid: We were right this summer in falling in love with the secondary option in this pass game; we just thought it would be Davis. Right zip code, wrong house when it comes to our analysis.

    Kincaid has at least a handful of catches in four straight games and owns a season catch rate north of 88%. As hit and miss as Allen can be, it’s clear that his rookie TE has earned his trust, which means Kincaid is firmly a starting tight end in all fantasy leagues for the remainder of the season.

    Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

    • Spread: Seahawks -1
    • Total: 46
    • Seahawks implied points: 23.5
    • Rams implied points: 22.5


    Geno Smith: I understand that Smith is coming off of a productive week against the Washington Commanders, but not all good games demand your reaction.

    I’m moderately encouraged by the fact that he funneled 52.4% of his throws to WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett last week. I’m also moderately encouraged by the fact that he has thrown multiple TD passes in three of his past four.

    That said, he still isn’t running like he did last season (under 15 yards in seven of nine games), and the Rams held him in check in the season opener with 112 yards on 26 passes.

    Neither QB in this game is a top-20 play for me this week.

    Matthew Stafford: All signs point to the veteran signal-caller returning to action following the bye, and that means a lot to his receivers.

    Stafford, himself, doesn’t need to be on your radar in single QB formats. His upside (best finish this season: QB14) doesn’t warrant you playing the matchup game with him, and the fact that he managed to throw for 334 yards without a touchdown in the first meeting hints as much.

    If we assume his health in order, Stafford is an average QB2 in SuperFlex formats and nothing more.

    Running Backs

    Kenneth Walker III: Walker’s carry count rebounded last week against the Commanders after a pair of single-digit carry efforts, and that was as good to see as the open field upside was in his 64-yard touchdown catch.

    The Rams held him to 16 touches for 67 yards in Week 1, a production level that reflects the lone end of what I expect this week. He is my RB16 this week, and while there is some risk involved, I have him looking at 15-17 touches – a role that is too valuable to bench.

    Zach Charbonnet: The rookie has out-snapped Walker in three-straight games and held an eye-popping 30-13 edge over the “starter” in routes run last week. It’s clear that the ‘Hawks trust Charbonnet in the two-minute drill and third downs. Walker was on the field for exactly zero snaps in either situation.

    While that’s important for Seattle’s offense, it means very little for us. He’s yet to clear 10 touches.

    Charbonnet’s nothing more than roster depth. I have him ranked as RB38 and would rather Flex low-volume receivers with high per-target potential.

    Darrell Henderson: I’ve been anything but impressed with Henderson during his three games (2.8 yards per carry), but his lead role, along with being the preferred RB in the pass game, gives him enough outs to be a viable Flex option against a Seahawks defense that is below average in most metrics.

    Henderson is ranked behind the running backs whose volume I feel good about and is just ahead of the secondary backs with a lower touch expectation.

    Royce Freeman: Committee situations are difficult as is, and I tend to penalize RBs in such situations that lack versatility in a significant way.

    Freeman has just one target this season and has been out-carried in two of three games by Henderson. Not only does that make him the second-most impactful running back on this roster, but it excludes him from my comfort zone when it comes to Flex ranks.

    He deserves to be rostered due to his role, but I’m looking for reasons to not play him – the Rams totaled just 92 yards on 40 carries in the Week 1 meeting.

    Wide Receivers

    DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett: These two stars had combined for two top-20 finishes in Weeks 1-9, but both showed out last week against the Washington Commanders and posted top-20 finishes at the position. Metcalf caught seven passes for 98 yards, while Lockett caught eight passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

    I don’t think all previous struggles can be forgiven after a single strong game, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction. This passing game was locked down in the Week 1 meeting — the two receivers combined for 57 yards on nine targets.

    The Rams rank below average in QB hurry rate this season, and that has me slightly preferring Metcalf to Lockett. The Ole Miss product’s aDOT advantage has grown this year from last, and with Smith having time to read downfield coverage schemes, I’d rather bet on Metcalf in DFS formats.

    That said, I have both ranked as fantasy starters (Metcalf as a WR2 and Lockett as a Flex) in all formats.

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie has shown some strong target-earning skills this season, and his 68.8% catch rate is impressive. That said, those metrics have yet to return much in the way of yardage upside. He has yet to reach 65 yards in a game.

    Smith-Njigba ran a route on 67.3% of Smith dropbacks last weekend and is in no danger of losing his WR3 role to Jake Bobo, but he is outside of my comfort zone when it comes to looking for a Flex.

    Could that change when Seattle faces Tennessee during the fantasy semifinals in Week 16? Maybe, but I need to see more per-catch upside before I consider him for my starting lineup.

    Cooper Kupp: Rostering Kupp this season has been no different than your high school/college experience — let me explain.

    Kupp started the season on IR, and that was you in high school. It was a safe space. You were sheltered from decision-making, simply waiting for the time to come when you were going to have to make difficult calls and venture into the “real world.”

    He then returned, and that was you leaving for college. In his first two games, he caught 15 passes on 21 targets for 266 yards.

    All systems go! You’re locked into your studies to make your parents proud. You’re going hard on the weekends to ensure that you make the most of your newfound freedom. You’re thriving — the bubble you were in during high school was worth it for this experience.

    Then came the second year of college. The courses get more difficult, and the honeymoon stage of living on your own is over. The upside of that first year didn’t go anywhere, but you begin to realize that not everything is sunshine and roses.

    In QB Matthew Stafford’s last two starts, Kupp recorded six catches on 17 targets for 50 yards.

    So, what does the future hold? Will Kupp managers be the kid that masters the balance of college and truly makes it the best four years of life? Or will managers be the kid that flames out due to a lack of support and decision-making?

    I choose to believe the former because this “Kupp manager” persona that I have created was a high-achieving high school student. This person has a track record of success, and the hope is that the potential shines through after a bump in the road. This Kupp persona is me.

    Did you need all of that to say you should feel good about playing Kupp? Probably not. But if it helps one person to stay motivated during the tough times, it is 100% worth it. College made me a person that I am proud of today.

    If it wasn’t for those who believed in me when I hit rock bottom, I have no idea where I’d be today. With Thanksgiving coming up, this is as good of an excuse as ever to thank those people. Thank them for believing in me when I had no interest in doing so.

    Support those you believe in — it costs you nothing, and I promise you, the impact can be so much greater than the effort it takes. So yeah, this is a long article about fake football. And yes, I’m making a very loose life comparison between personal struggles that we all go through and my confidence in Kupp turning things around.

    But the moral of the story here is to have people in your corner — people who care. I found support when I needed it most and currently work for people who reinforce that on a daily basis. I’m lucky, and I want that for you.

    Start Kupp.

    Puka Nacua: Nacua’s career started with a bang against these Seahawks (10 catches for 119 yards on 15 targets), but Kupp was a spectator for that game. If we are to assume that Kupp is the superior target earner — that’s not a knock on Nacua — there is more risk than reward in counting on Nauca.

    In Week 6 against the Arizona Cardinals, Nacua caught four catches on seven targets for 26 yards. In Week 8 in Dallas against the Cowboys, he caught three passes on the same amount of targets for 43 yards.

    Those are the last two games in which Kupp earned more targets than Nacua in a game started by Stafford. Of course, that’s a small sample, but it is a concerning data point that at least needs to be considered. Assuming that Stafford is “all systems go” as expected, Nacua checks in with Metcalf and Lockett toward the bottom of my WR2 rankings for Week 11.

    Tutu Atwell: With Kupp out and Nacua debuting, Atwell piled up 119 yards on six catches in the Week 1 meeting against the ‘Hawks, but the situation is far different this time around.

    Since that big season opener, Atwell is averaging just 31.9 receiving yards per game, and that’s more in line with what I expect against an above-average defense in terms of limiting yards per pass attempt.

    Tight Ends

    Tyler Higbee: Higbee has been held without a touchdown since last Christmas and is pacing for just 541 yards this season. His name is one you know, thanks to some production last season, but make no mistake about it – he belongs on waiver wires in all formats.

    Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos

    • Spread: Broncos -2
    • Total: 43.5
    • Vikings implied points: 20.5
    • Broncos implied points: 23


    Joshua Dobbs: Two top-five finishes at the position, multiple viral moments on social media, and a pair of victories — the “Passtronaut” is having himself a hell of November.

    Dobbs has at least 10 rushing points in both of his games with Minnesota and has seen his completion percentage rise by 4.4 percentage points from his time in Arizona despite not having his top receiver.

    That’s likely to change this week, with Justin Jefferson trending in the right direction. It’s impossible not to be impressed with what Dobbs has been able to do, but it’s just as hard to rank him as a fantasy starter this week, even in a good spot. Here’s why:

    • Bye week QBs: Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, and Derek Carr
    • Brock Purdy (vs. TB) and Trevor Lawrence (vs. TEN) face pass funnels
    • Sam Howell (vs. NYG) is in a great spot
    • Kyler Murray is back, and Justin Fields is expected to be

    So, how high can you realistically rank Dobbs? I just mentioned three fringe QBs in great spots and two unique talents with ceilings that are tough to quantify. At the bare minimum, we have eight locked-in QB starters (Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Tagovailoa, Prescott, Burrow, Jackson, and Herbert), and I’d argue that list should be 10 deep (Goff and Stroud).

    Yes, I like Dobbs. And yes, I’m more of a believer than I was 14 days ago … and seven days ago. That doesn’t make ranking him as a fantasy starter any easier of an exercise. The tier of QB that Dobbs is in right now (for fantasy) is a crowded one, and if the excitement around him results in inflated value, move him!

    There might be a desperate manager in your league looking at this matchup and next week (vs. Bears) and salivating. The odds are good that you at least have a QB in the same tier as Dobbs, so if you can flip him into a strong Flex piece right now, I would. The Week 13 bye dings his ROS value, and matchups with the Bengals and Lions (Weeks 15-16) aren’t overly friendly when you need his production the most.

    Russell Wilson: With five straight games of over 20 rushing yards and six multi-touchdown pass games on his 2023 resume, Wilson is atoning for his struggles a year ago in a nice way.

    While the production has been reasonably consistent, it’s really not enough to be counted on weekly. The Vikings’ defense is a unit on the up-and-up, and with the Broncos ranking 23rd in time of possession, I’m not sure there is enough quality or quantity for Wilson to crack the top-15 at the position in this spot.

    Running Backs

    Alexander Mattison: Is a lack of efficiency finally resulting in a change of role in Minnesota’s backfield? For a third game in a row (40-carry sample size), Mattison failed to produce a run of longer than 10 yards, and his touchdown-less carry count for the season is up to 130.

    His struggles resulted in Ty Chandler nipping at his heels (33-32 Mattison edge in snaps and 19-13 in routes run in Week 10), and while the 2022 fifth-rounder wasn’t any more efficient with his opportunities (15 carries for 45 yards), he did punch in a touchdown off of a direct snap.

    MORE: Ty Chandler Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 11 

    This is a matchup against a leaky run defense that is operating on a short week — the only way a team fails to offer a viable fantasy RB in that spot is due to a dead-even committee. Sadly, that might be the situation here.

    I still lean Mattison and have him as a viable Flex play, but the gap between the two is only 10 spots in my ranks. Chandler needs to be rostered, even if he doesn’t have a direct path to your starting lineup.

    Minnesota has playoff dreams, a backup QB, and a late bye (Week 13). That makes for an interesting recipe coming down the fantasy stretch where its run game could well be featured in a meaningful way:

    • Week 14 at Raiders: Plus matchup
    • Week 15 at Bengals: Need to stay on the field
    • Week 16 vs. Lions: Need to stay on the field
    • Week 17 vs Packers: Plus matchup

    I’m not saying that Chandler emerges as “the guy,” but it’s certainly within the range of outcomes. It didn’t cost them much, but it’s worth remembering that the Vikes did trade for Cam Akers in a move to take some work off of Mattison’s plate. My eyebrow is raised, and that makes Chandler a great depth option for competitive fantasy teams (and a viable Flex play should Mattison be ruled out).

    Javonte Williams: Minnesota ranking as the fifth-best per-carry run defense makes starting a running back against them inherently dangerous, but with over 20 carries in consecutive games and 3-plus catches in three straight, Williams owns a role that you can trust.

    He’s in no danger of losing work on the ground, and with Russell Wilson opting for the short pass game, his three-to-four targets feel safe. Go ahead and lock in Williams as a strong RB2 every week moving forward. Trust the talent and the role to prove productive over the course of the game.

    Wide Receivers

    Justin Jefferson: The All-Pro was back on the practice field last week after being designated to return from IR (hamstring), but he was unable to progress enough to feel comfortable in taking the field against the Saints. He stated on multiple occasions that he wouldn’t return until he was 100%, something we, as fantasy managers, very much appreciate.

    Of course, being 100% healthy pre-game is no assurance that he makes it through the entire contest. Combine re-injury with a new QB and a matchup with Patrick Surtain — there’s more risk in Jefferson’s portfolio than usual. Understanding that, he’s still a top-15 play for me and one that you’re not benching.

    Minnesota has a long week after this (MNF vs.. CHI in Week 12) and then its bye, something that gives me more confidence in his role this weekend. With an extra day to recover for the next game followed by a week off, the Vikings can, theoretically, be aggressive with their star this week and see how his body reacts.

    Jordan Addison: The more things change, the more they stay the same.

    Target share over the past two weeks (Dobbs’s debut): 20.9%
    Target share in his four games prior (starting with Jefferson’s injury): 20.9%

    The usage seems reasonably safe (between five and eight targets in seven of 10 games) regardless of who is under center or who is healthy among his pass-catching teammates. Naturally, the combination of Dobbs and Jefferson both being on the field is something we’ve yet to see and leads to some fragility when it comes to projecting Addison.

    I would take the “under” on seven targets for Addison when Jefferson returns, and that makes him a little more big-play-dependent than I am comfortable with. He ranks in the same tier as Courtland Sutton (in this game) and Jahan Dotson — all three are receivers with a path to Flex production but also a clear risk of not producing top-50 numbers.

    K.J. Osborn: After a scary hit in Week 9’s win in Atlanta, Osborn was able to navigate protocol, but the team did elect to hold him out (concussion) last week. Brandon Powell earned five targets in Week 10, though it was something of a committee behind Addison with Osborn sidelined. All signs point to Osborn being healthy enough to return this week, but fantasy managers need not worry.

    Osborn has one game with 50+ receiving yards this season, and his usage is likely to decline with Jefferson set to return. Osborn can be sent to waiver wires in most formats.

    Courtland Sutton: I called him Sutton the “Brian Robinson of the WR position” last week, and guess what? He scored another touchdown – a thing of beauty that had a 3.2% expected completion percentage per NextGenStats. That’s now four-straight games with a score and a TD in seven of nine games this season.

    Like Robinson, the floor if/when the scoring regression monster appears is worrisome, but the 37.9% target share against Buffalo last week gives me some hope that he can survive that mathematical likelihood.

    Sutton is well ahead of teammate and fellow WR Jerry Jeudy these days, and he grades out as a Flex play for me in this spot against an improving defense.

    Jerry Jeudy: In games in which the Broncos don’t allow 70 points, Jeudy has yet to reach 65 receiving yards in a game this season. Without much in the way of yardage upside, Jeudy needs scoring chances to pay off your trust. Those opportunities are almost exclusively going to Sutton.

    The Alabama product is on the fringe of my top 40 at the position in this increasingly difficult matchup, and I’m not sure I’m low enough.

    Tight Ends

    T.J. Hockenson: After last week, it is pretty clear that fantasy managers and the Minnesota Vikings evaluate “key situations” pretty similarly. Reports came out on Sunday morning that Hockenson (ribs) would play but that the team would be careful in how they used him.

    Man, just imagine if they unleashed him.

    All he did against the Saints was see 46.9% of the targets, take hard hit after hard hit, and finish with 24.9 fantasy points. Hockenson is to be viewed as nothing short of elite, and that isn’t going to change with Jefferson coming back.

    The volume creates a nice floor that is rare for the position and puts him in the conversation with Travis Kelce when it comes to a true difference-making TE.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs

    • Spread: Chiefs -2.5
    • Total: 45.5
    • Eagles implied points: 21.5
    • Chiefs implied points: 24


    Jalen Hurts: The most reliable quarterback in fantasy has rattled off five straight top-five finishes and eight straight top-10s. Those streaks are likely to end at some point, but not this week.

    The Eagles may have lost the Super Bowl matchup with the Chiefs, but they executed their game plan (nearly 36 minutes of possession), and that proved as friendly to Hurts’ production as you could hope (304 pass yards, 70 rush yards, four total TDs).

    I have my eyebrow raised at the fact that Hurts has a 15-yard carry in just two of nine games this season, but with his elite role near the goal line, that is the most minor of nits to pick.

    Patrick Mahomes: It’s way too early to say that teams are using a blueprint to defend Mahomes, but with under 7.0 yards per attempt in four of his past six games and just 425 yards through the air over his past two games (both seemingly good spots against Denver and Miami), Mahomes’ upside needs to be watched.

    Philadelphia limited his per-pass yardage upside in the Super Bowl (21 for 27 and 182 yards), though the Chiefs were able to scheme open Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney for touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.

    As was the case with Hurts, this is minor. Could it make a difference in the fantasy playoffs if your advantage gained at the position isn’t as great? Maybe, and we will address that when the time comes, but there’s no actionable concern here — you’re starting him and enjoying the show. Mahomes has run for 20+ yards in eight of nine games this season, accessing his fantasy ceiling in a different way.

    Running Backs

    D’Andre Swift: That Week 1 game where he was an afterthought feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, he hasn’t finished worse than RB25, thanks in large part to him posting over 4.0 fantasy points as a pass catcher in five of his past six games.

    The Brotherly Shove can be a bummer (unless they fake it like they did in Week 8), but there’s nothing to complain about there, given that Swift has 18+ touches in each of his past six games. The Chiefs cough up 4.5 yards per carry — you’ll have to navigate endless “Swift/Kelce” corny jokes and wordplay this week, but if that’s your biggest problem, you’re in fine shape.

    Isiah Pacheco: Kansas City’s balance in the Super Bowl last season (27 pass attempts and 26 rush attempts) was impressive, considering that they didn’t lead for a single second of the first three quarters. If they do something similar in this spot, Pacheco’s role (88.9% of the RB carries in Week 9) makes him a top-15 RB, even in a tough matchup.

    Given the opponent and the time of possession concerns, Pacheco’s ceiling is lower this week than most (-3 receiving yards over the past two weeks doesn’t help), but don’t take that to mean that he should be on your bench. You’re playing him and chasing a touchdown.

    Wide Receivers

    A.J. Brown: He has been a top-10 receiver in four straight games and a top-15 receiver for seven in a row, looking unstoppable in the process.

    Week 2: WR71
    Weeks 3-10: The sum of his finishes at the position – 45

    He had a weird game in the Super Bowl, but it all worked out from a statistical point of view. He found paydirt from 45 yards out, and that’s great, but his other five catches resulted in “just” 51 yards. The Chiefs haven’t played many alpha WRs this season, but in the recent instances that they have, they’ve limited efficiency in a significant way:

    Tyreek Hill (Week 9): 62 yards on 10 targets (down 46.8% from all other games)
    Keenan Allen (Week 7): 55 yards on nine targets (down 32%)

    That’s obviously a small sample, but I thought it was interesting. You’re playing Brown, and I have some concerns about DeVonta Smith — the volume floor for Brown’s role makes failing simply tough to do.

    DeVonta Smith: Finally! Smith entered the bye week with a pair of WR1 finishes after having just one through the first seven weeks (including three straight finishes outside of the top 40 before this streak). He has flashed efficiency over his past three games (14 catches on 15 targets), but the number of looks is still all over the place on a week-to-week basis.

    This season, the Chiefs are blitzing 33.7% of the time, up from 24.3% last season. That worries me for Smith’s ability to repeat anything close to what he did in the Super Bowl (seven catches for 100 yards on nine targets).

    This season, Smith’s aDOT is up 26.4% from last. In theory, that helps his upside, but if Hurts is feeling the pressure in a hurry with his knee at less than full strength, those deep targets figure to be few and far between. I have him ranked as a WR2, so I’m not forecasting a dud to the level that we saw earlier this season (under 50 yards in five different games this season), but I’m putting the risk on your radar.

    Rashee Rice: It feels like we are dangerously close to a full breakout. He scored on the first drive in Germany against the Dolphins, and I was ready. I had tweets drafted, I alerted my family members, I was looking at Rice jersey prices and continuing to workshop nickname options — it was all systems go to celebrate the moment that we’d been waiting a month for.

    He caught one pass the rest of the day. Sad Kyle.

    The floor has been strong (top 35 in four of his past five games), but can we PLEASE get a breakout on national TV in a Super Bowl rematch? Pretty please?

    Speaking of that matchup to end last season, JuJu Smith-Schuster earned 36% of the targets. We’ve seen what he is this season, so the fact that he was able to find space in the short passing game against a version of this pass defense that was better than what the Eagles currently own is noteworthy.

    I’m Flexing Rice. Again. Let’s end Week 11 with a bang!

    Marquez Valdes-Scantling: The profile of a deep threat who is constantly on the field in a Mahomes-led offense makes all the sense in the world from a process standpoint. I’m generally a process analyst who will die on hills like that, but I’m done with rostering MVS, and you should be, too.

    You’ve been rostering him in hopes that you can plug him in as an upside option during a tough week. Well, give or take, only a half-dozen fantasy regulars at the WR position have yet to go on bye, and injuries don’t rack up the way there as they do at running back.

    Valdes-Scantling has finished better than WR55 just once this season, and with most of the impactful byes in the rearview, you’re unlikely to be desperate at the position.

    Tight Ends

    Dallas Goedert: We are awaiting further news when it comes to a return timetable for Goedert following his forearm fracture. At the moment, I’m holding. There aren’t enough options at the TE position, so the idea that you have an advantage on half of your league holds value.

    Managers without an IR slot in a shallow bench situation may have to make a decision on Goedert sooner than later, but I’d sit tight for now and burn a roster spot on him.

    Travis Kelce: After a top-five tight end finish in five of six games, Kelce has been TE15 and TE29 over his past two. Relax. You got two months of glory at the position; you can suffer like the rest of us with spotty TE play.

    Kelce will be elite for the remainder of the season, and that should start on Monday night against a team that he burned for 81 yards and a score in Super Bowl LVII. Zero concerns over him stubbing his toe recently — Kelce is a cheat code at the toughest position to fill.

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