Strategy is the lifeblood of DFS. When building your fantasy football lineup, you must not only consider the players you want to build around but also the opportunity cost associated with every single decision you make.
In paying up for one position, you’re taking money away from another. Every decision you make impacts the rest of your lineup, and you must also consider what your competition will be doing — how can you separate yourself from the pack?
Everyone plays DFS with different goals in mind. We all want to win, of course, but the path to success varies greatly based on game type. Below, I run through my thought process behind building a lineup for cash games and smaller tournaments.
I prefer to play in contests with entry limitations, thus ensuring that I am putting my lineup against carefully selected single entries as opposed to an optimizer that spits out the 150 best options given my inputs.
Let’s have a big Week 3!
DFS Fantasy Football Lineup Construction
Stacked Attack: C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins (at Vikings)
I don’t think this tandem is going to be unique by any means, but I also am not worried about it being overly chalky due to the presence of that Detroit Lions/Arizona Cardinals game in the late window. That contest projects to be fantasy-friendly and should be the top stack as the bring-back options are much more favorable than what Houston Texans stackers have to work with.
Are we sure, 100% sure, that this isn’t the most potent tandem in the league? I’m not talking about just this week, I’m talking across the entire NFL. Collins was a top-three receiver in just about any efficiency metric you could have charted last season, and with him turning 18 targets into 14 catches, 252 yards, and a touchdown during Houston’s 2-0 start, I think it’s fair to say that the NFL still doesn’t have an answer for him.
I’m never going to talk you out of this stack, but some weeks I will make this tandem a priority, and this is one of them. The Vikings are as aggressive as any defense in the league, but if a defense blitzes a ton and never gets home, are they really aggressive?
Since the beginning of last season, Minnesota has been the fourth-worst defense at generating pressure when bringing the heat, leaving them very vulnerable to any quarterback. Spoiler alert: Stroud isn’t “any” quarterback.
Over the course of his short career, the former Ohio State Buckeye has punished defenses in a major way in such spots (blitzing without pressure):
- 140.3 passer rating
- 10.4 yards per pass attempt
- 11.7% touchdown rate
Stroud averages 33.4 passes per game for his career, and if a high percentage of them are coming in a spot like this, he’s a threat to break this slate.
The idea behind stacking a pass catcher is quite simple — if my quarterback is going to put up points, I want to get additional exposure to the fun. Well, guess what Collins has done when Stroud is blitzed but left unaffected?
- 21 targets
- 19 catches
- 255 yards
- Three touchdowns
Sign. Me. Up.
Mini Game Stack: Jahmyr Gibbs and Michael Wilson
This is where we get creative. Fully fading this game, given the projected total and the number of high level play-makers on both sides, is dangerous, but I do think we can try to cherry pick a bit.
The Lions enter this game as a reasonable-sized favorite, and that has tied in nicely when evaluating Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs’ last 5 games as a favorite:
- 14.4% production over expectation
- 4.6 red-zone touches per game
- +8.7% fantasy points per target over his career norm
We are obviously early in the process, but David Montgomery’s snap rate is down from last season; outside of the overtime period against an exhausted Los Angeles Rams defense in Week 1, what has the veteran shown us (23 carries for 81 yards)?
If we are to believe that Detroit dictates the flow of this game, Arizona is going to be forced to the air, something that probably won’t take much convincing after Kyler Murray posted the best QB performance of the season last week.
Entering this season, who were viewed as the primary threats in the air for the Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers? It was Puka Nacua and Mike Evans without much question, and that is how the Lions elected to defend those two offenses.
- Nacua (first half, given his Week 1 injury): Targeted on 26.7% of routes
- Cooper Kupp (first half): Targeted on 33.3% of routes
- Evans: Targeted on 25% of routes
- Chris Godwin: Targeted on 34.8% of routes
Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the clear top threats in this Cardinals passing attack — what if Detroit continues to prioritize limiting the looks for top options?
Wilson doesn’t need to do much to pay off this price tag, especially when you consider that he is essentially a full-time player (48 routes run this season, the same number as McBride and only five fewer than Harrison). If you want extra insights, we can dig deeper.
Wilson can line up anywhere, but this coaching staff has been putting him out wide and on the ride side with some level of regularity. Well, that happens to be a sore spot for the Lions:
Throws out wide to the right since 2023 vs. DET
- 118.0 passer rating (seventh highest)
- 8.5% touchdown rate (third highest)
This is the key game. I like the Houston stack plenty, but if we can squeeze value out of this game by way of two pieces that won’t be among the most common clicks, we stand to gain on our competition in a meaningful way down the stretch as this main slate is wrapping up.
Mini Game Stack 2.0: Jordan Mason and Colby Parkinson
I don’t expect either of these pieces to be different, but you don’t have to be different across the board to win, and I think we’ve made enough subtle tweaks to swallow some chalk.
This game lines up as a get-right spot for the San Francisco 49ers, and given the injuries to Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian McCaffrey, both Mason and George Kittle are going to be popular plays. Mason has my interest more, however, as I expect the 49ers to be operating with a lead more often than not, allowing them to churn out the yardage on the ground.
Mason happens to have every single running back rushing yard for San Francisco this season. That’s not me playing fast and loose with the numbers or rounding in my favor — he literally has every single one as he has taken on the full McCaffrey role when it comes to running the ball.
The third year pro has run into a stacked box on 58.3% of his carries this season and yet he’s still managed to post the fourth-best PFN Elusive Rating through two weeks (a blend of high-level success before and after contact). It’s plenty fair to question how long he can hold up with this obscene role, but another 60 minutes isn’t too much to ask, and that’s the beauty of DFS over season-long.
As for the bring-back, if I’m right on the 49ers leading, Matthew Stafford is going to be throwing the rock with consistency. This Rams offense entered the season as a very concentrated attack, and that’s fine, that is, until both of your elite target earners get banged up.
Without Kupp or Nacua active, Stafford is going to have to get creative. He’s a savvy veteran who has proven plenty capable of elevating the talent around him, and if I’m going to make a bet on him doing that this week, why not target the player we know is going to be on the field?
Parkinson may not boast an elite profile, but he’s cleared an 80% snap rate in both games. He owns a career aDOT of 7.3 yards and a catch rate of nearly 73%, giving him a good chance at paying off this price tag at a position that offers little stability on this slate (we are without Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid, and Evan Engram, who play on Monday night).
Sleeping Giant: Amari Cooper (vs. Giants)
Betting on Deshaun Watson might not be the most comfortable click, but if you’re ever going to give it a spin, this looks like the week. It’s no secret that the New York Giants are a mess, and their struggles extend downfield — they are the only defense in the league to have allowed at least four deep completions in both games this season.
They’ve played Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels.
Opponents have excelled all over the place against New York, but it’s worth noting that they’ve completed 87% of their passes (20 of 23) when throwing to the perimeter against the G-Men, a rate that is borderline hard to comprehend. That is where Cooper lives, as he has seen 70.8% of his targets when split out wide this season (72.2% since joining Cleveland).
Cleveland’s WR1 has seen at least eight passes thrown his way in both games this season, and if that streak extends to three straight, he could well prove to be a skeleton key for this slate.
Difference-Making D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Broncos)
I’m as guilty as anyone of overthinking the D/ST position. On a weekly basis, you can find me deep down spreadsheet rabbit holes, trying to uncover a weakness of an offense or a strength of a defense that my competition is unaware of.
Fortunately, DraftKings has saved me that time this week by mispricing the Buccaneers. Let’s be clear about something: I don’t think this is a good defense. Heck, I’m not positive they are average when looking at the overall profile, but they check every box I want for DFS purposes.
Tampa Bay is a 6.5-point favorite this week and that’s roughly where they checked in by my numbers as well, so let’s assume that is an accurate handicap. Over the past decade, opponents throw 22.8% more often when trailing than otherwise, and those throws go, on average, 6.4% further down the field.
Is there a quarterback in the league you’d rather have throwing your defense deep passes than Bo Nix? Is there a human on planet Earth you’d rather have doing it? Of qualified QBs this season, these are Nix’s ranks when throwing passes more than five yards down field:
- 30.6% complete (lowest)
- Zero touchdowns (tied for the fewest)
- Four interceptions (tied for the most)
- 12.5 passer rating (lowest)
The Broncos have allowed pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season when not blitzed (42.6% of the time) this season, putting Nix in a near-impossible spot should his team fall behind.
Missing Piece: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. Dolphins)
At this point I’ve walked you through nearly an entire lineup, but if you’re following along on DraftKings, I still have my Flex spot to settle. This is a PPR setting, and that lands me on a receiver in this spot more often than not as I’d rather bank on my ability to project usage through the air than pray for a touchdown from a cheap, low-usage back on the ground.
Smith-Njigba, a 2023 first round pick, was a popular pick to make a Year 2 jump this season, and while his 16 targets last week in New England caught the eyes of casual box score watchers, I was more intrigued by the type of opportunity he earned in that win than the sheer volume.
Per my Week 3 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em piece:
- Week 2: 172 air yards
- First four career games in September: 38 air yards
We have an extended sample of Smith-Njigba being able to win near the line of scrimmage (6.1 aDOT last season with a 71% catch rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards down field), and that single skill, if you assume that he has passed Tyler Lockett as the WR2 in this offense, is enough to justify his current price tag.
Some very promising signs on #Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba:
1. Has run 69 routes on 76 Geno dropbacks this season. That's more than Tyler Lockett (62).
2. Still getting a lot of short-area targets, but now mixing in deeper routes. Average depth of target yesterday was 10.6… pic.twitter.com/45PT8IlzFM
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024
But what if Week 2’s outburst was the start of something? He’s not undersized (6′, 197 pounds), and it’s not as if we’ve never seen him make splash plays (15.4 yards per catch during his time at Ohio State). He earned more targets deep down field last week (six) than he had since Thanksgiving (four), adding a level of upside that I don’t believe is fully accounted for at his current cost.
As for the matchup, what’s not to like? The Seattle Seahawks’ backfield is banged up, and with Skylar Thompson for the home team, it’s easy to like Seattle from a possession and pass-attempt standpoint.
The Miami Dolphins, since the beginning of last season, have allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage on short passes (under 10 air yards) and, when not giving up completions underneath, are often challenged downfield (ninth-highest opponent aDOT over that stretch).
JSN doesn’t come without risk, but if I win by rostering him, I want to win big, something this matchup presents: seven of the eight receivers to reach 90 receiving yards against the Dolphins since the start of last season also found the end zone.
I’m closing out this lineup with Smith-Njigba and loving where I sit. This roster is filled with correlation, and by leaving $400 on the table, I feel good about being reasonably unique despite no real off-the-radar plays
Soppe’s Week 3 DFS Lineup
- QB: C.J. Stroud at MIN
- RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs at ARI
- RB2: Jordan Mason at LAR
- WR1: Nico Collins at MIN
- WR2: Amari Cooper vs. NYG
- WR3: Michael Wilson vs. DET
- TE: Colby Parkinson vs. SF
- FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. MIA
- D/ST: Buccaneers vs. DEN