Soppe’s Week 3 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try – @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready – this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns Start/Sit

• Spread: Browns -6
• Total: 38.5
• Giants implied points: 16.3
• Browns implied points: 22.3

Daniel Jones Fantasy Outlook

The two touchdown passes last week reinforced the idea that just about anyone can have success against the Commanders. It did not pique my interest in Jones moving forward in the slightest. The athleticism will allow him to backdoor his way into some top-15 finishes at the position this season, as will the presence of a true WR1 in Malik Nabers, but not on anything close to a consistent basis.

He’s thrown 70 passes this season against two vulnerable defenses, but he’s yet to clear 190 yards in a game and has a total of two passing touchdowns. Jones gets the Commanders again in Week 9, a week that only Justin Fields and Brock Purdy go on bye. I’d be shocked if Jones was started once this season in anything but the deepest of formats.

Deshaun Watson Fantasy Outlook

Seeing Watson run for a score last week was nice, but until he puts anything resembling consistency on tape, I don’t see how you can go this route, no matter your levels of desperation.

If you want to get cute in DFS, the next month would be the time to try it with Watson (Giants-Raiders-Commanders-Eagles-Bengals), but that’s a cost-based investment where you’re gaining value based on his price. That’s not the case in season-long leagues where all we care about is production at the end of the day, and one passing score on 79 attempts isn’t cutting it.

Devin Singletary Fantasy Outlook

With five targets in Week 1 and a touchdown in Week 2, Singletary has sustained marginal value up to this point. He finished the 21-18 loss in Washington last week as an RB2, thanks in large part to a game script that never got out of hand. I’m not banking on that being the case often for the Giants and as a near-touchdown underdog in a game with a low total, there’s not much to like in this profile — he’s my lowest-ranked running back that I project to get 15+ touches this week.

Jerome Ford Fantasy Outlook

Ford piled up the fantasy points in garbage time during the Week 1 blowout loss to the Cowboys, but when the “gimme” looks in the passing game dried up in a competitive contest with the Jaguars, he was left without much value at all.

Ford is a boom-or-bust running back, a profile I’m more willing to start in an offense with some level of stability – the Browns aren’t that. For the season, I’m very out on 2023’s worst running back in terms of gain rate, but for Week 3, he slides into RB2 status against a Giants defense that allows the most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season (4.83).

D’Onta Foreman Fantasy Outlook

Foreman had the first two carries last week for the Browns, suggesting that we have a full-blown committee on our hands. Foreman recovered his own fumble on the goal line in Week 2, and without ball security, he’s not a true threat to pick up significant work.

Foreman’s value isn’t as an asset himself but as a drain to Ford.

Malik Nabers Fantasy Outlook

Marvin Harrison Jr. broke out last week, but I’d argue Nabers’ ability to earn 18 targets (66.7% target share), even against the Commanders, was as impressive as anything in Week 2. He put the ball on the turf in a big spot, but Jones was locked in on him, and that was the bet we made this summer in paying up for Nabers.

The rookie saw his aDOT spike by 65.1% from Week 1 to Week 2, and that is why I’m buying him as a top-24 play this week, even in a tough matchup. The value of individual targets from Jones is questionable at best, but if he is earning looks at all three levels, sheer volume justifies playing him.

Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Those are two of the best in the game. Those are also the only two receivers in the sport with more targets right now than Nabers. I don’t think his status as the third-highest-scoring WR in fantasy is here to stay, but the Giants are motivated to give him every opportunity to develop, and that’s all we can ask for.

Wan’Dale Robinson Fantasy Outlook

After a heavily involved Week 1, Robinson’s target rate dried up; if that’s going to be the case moving forward, he really doesn’t have a path to mattering in standard fantasy league leagues (his next 35-yard catch as a pro will be his first).

Opponents have completed just 12 of 27 passes to the slot against the Browns this season (44.4%, the lowest rate in the league), a further drain on his fantasy standing in this spot. Robinson has finished each of the first two weeks this season as a top-35 receiver – I’m not buying it. Not even close. He’s my WR60.

Amari Cooper Fantasy Outlook

The Giants are the only defense in the league that has allowed at least four deep completions in both games this season. While the Watson/Cooper tandem has yet to bear much fruit (five catches on 17 targets), this lines up as a get-right spot.

Opponents have completed 87% of passes (20 of 23) when throwing to the perimeter against the G-men, a rate that is borderline hard to comprehend, That is where Cooper lives as he has seen 70.8% of his targets when split out wide this season (72.2% since joining Cleveland).

It’s been a mess up to this point, but Watson did look a little better last week; that, along with this matchup, is enough for Cooper to hold onto my trust for one more week. With a month of strong matchups ahead, one big game on Sunday could lead to him assuming lineup-lock status for an extended stretch – he’s on my list for the five players with the most to prove in Week 3.

Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Outlook

We all thought Jeudy was the man in Denver last season, and it ended up being Courtland Sutton. Could Jeudy be to Cooper what Sutton was to Jeudy last season?

I’m not yet going that far, and there’s a world in which it doesn’t matter if Watson can’t give this offense even league-average play, but it’s within the range of outcomes. Jeudy scored in Week 1 and turned six targets into five catches for 73 yards against the Jaguars last weekend.

Jeudy has been in the slot for 38% of his routes this season, giving him a viable outlook in the short passing game against the high-blitzing Giants. He has my attention in DFS settings and is closing the gap with Cooper, though he still slots behind him and outside of my top 35 at the position.

David Njoku Fantasy Outlook

With the high ankle sprain limiting Njoku and this offense showing no signs of life (or a secondary pass catcher), there’s no reason to go this direction until we get proof of concept when it comes to his health. That said, I think there is some value in holding if you have that luxury:

Week 4 at Las Vegas Raiders
Week 5 at Washington Commanders
Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

We know the physical tools are there. We also know that this offense is awfully limited. But at a position that is next to impossible to feel good about these days, Njoku is worth keeping around — at least until we hit the bye weeks and your bench spots become more valuable.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans Start/Sit

• Spread: Titans -3
• Total: 36.5
• Packers implied points: 16.8
• Titans implied points: 19.8

Malik Willis Fantasy Outlook

The win last week may have bought the Packers an additional week in terms of the Jordan Love recovery process. While that’s good news for the team, it’s bad news for fantasy managers.

Willis’ first drive last week (six rush attempts, two penalties, and one pass) was a sign of things to come, a conservative approach that the Packers were able to stick with given the game script. I don’t think that’s a sustainable way to play football in 2024, but against a Titans team looking to avoid a third straight loss by an identical score (24-17 for those “exact score” bettors out there), it’s feasible that this week could be a lot like the snoozefest that was Week 2.

Willis has some rushing ability in his profile, but not nearly enough to matter. The Packers have elite receiver depth, but not nearly enough for Willis to matter. There’s no reason to go down this path, even in a Superflex or two-QB setting.

Will Levis Fantasy Outlook

I think he offers the most fantasy upside at the position in this game, that has to count for something, right? Levis’ first two games this season have looked like raw Josh Allen but with less talent and that’s… entertaining — but it’s nowhere near useful for us.

It wouldn’t shock me if someone cashed a big DFS paycheck in December (Commanders-Jaguars-Bengals-Colts-Jaguars) courtesy of everything falling into place for a reckless player like this, but there’s no need to look this way in a game I expect to have a limited possession count.

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook

I was as out as anyone on Jacobs this summer, and while I stand by the logic that got me to that take, any script that features 53 runs against 14 passes like what Green Bay bludgeoned Indianapolis with last week is going to allow their RB1 to return value.

You’re starting Jacobs in this spot as a sheer volume play at the very least until Love returns, but I’m still treading lightly. MarShawn Lloyd made his NFL debut last week and was handed the ball on the first drive, as was Emanuel Wilson — that’s not ideal. Nor is the fact that he has been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on 37.5% of his carries this season. Or the fact that he fumbled on the goal line last week.

Red flags galore in this profile. You’ve been warned.

Tony Pollard Fantasy Outlook

We were sold this offseason that Pollard’s struggles last season had as much to do with limited health as anything and, through two weeks at least, I’m tempted to believe it.

Not only has Pollard finished as a top 20 player at the position in both games this season, but he’s shown flashes of the versatility that we fell in love with initially. In Week 1 against a stingy Bears team, he picked up 5.1 yards per carry. In the loss to the Jets last weekend, he earned six targets.

With 41 touches on his résumé up to this point and a 20+ yard gain in both contests, Pollard is a Flex-worthy player, even with Spears eating away at his touch upside. My primary concern in this game is possession count, but given that the Packers have already allowed eight RB carries for 10+ yards (second most), I’m OK with betting on Pollard being efficient with the work he gets. Maybe this is a bit spicy, but I’m playing him over Rhamondre Stevenson on Thursday night, one of the breakout players up to this point.

Tyjae Spears Fantasy Outlook

*Spears is likely to play through an ankle injury

Spears has exactly eight touches in both games this season and has yet to rip off a 12+ yard gain. Up to this point, and I’ll admit that it’s still very early, he looks like a poor man’s version of what Pollard was early in his career to Ezekiel Elliott – a low-touch back that needs efficiency to pay off. What’s the hitch? This offense doesn’t have much hope of being efficient, and that keeps Spears well off of fantasy radars until otherwise noted.

Jayden Reed Fantasy Outlook

We got the dreaded triple-single from the Packers’ receiver room last week under Willis.

• Reed led the WRs in touches
• Dontayvion Wicks led the WRs in targets and scores
• Romeo Doubs led the WRs in yards

The Titans are allowing just 19.4 yards per drive through two weeks (third fewest), and while I’m not sold on this defense as anything other than ordinary, I’m happy to use that stat as an excuse to bench all Packer pass catchers again this weekend.

Christian Watson Fantasy Outlook

Watson doesn’t profile as a strong play in a perfect situation, and I think we can agree that a Willis-led offense is far from optimal.

Watson ranked third among the Packers’ receivers in routes run last week, and in this low-octane offense, he is a skill mismatch that has very few paths to fantasy excellence as long as Love is shelved.

Calvin Ridley Fantasy Outlook

With DeAndre Hopkins opening this season limited, Ridley has assumed the clear WR1 role, and it paid off in a big way against the Jets (87 yards and a pair of touchdowns). He rolled into the end zone after making an acrobatic catch on a bomb and found paydirt with a 10-yard run, two individual plays that speak to the upside that comes with Ridley’s athletic profile.

Ridley leads all players in air yards this season, a role that is going to come with crazy swings in production. He’s very much a matchup play, and while the Packers can be had vertically (though you wouldn’t know it if you bet on Anthony Richardson last weekend), this projects as a low-possession game, thus putting more value on every single play.

Efficiency isn’t exactly a strength of Levis’, and that has me out on all Titans pass catchers in this spot. Ridley is sitting as my WR38, in the exact same spot as Reed and in a no-fly zone if you have any depth at the position.

DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy Outlook

Hopkins showed enough juice last season for me to not completely write him off this season once he proves his health, he just hasn’t done that yet. Everything needs to go just right for a receiver in a Levis-led offense to crack fantasy lineups, something that Ridley proved possible last week. However, with just 27 routes on Hopkins’ 2024 ledger, it’s clear that he is operating at less than full strength.

I’m happy to be a week late rather than a week early when it comes to below-average offenses like this – Hopkins is keeping my bench warm until we get a highlight that proves he is both at full strength and Levis’ first read on a consistent basis.

Tucker Kraft Fantasy Outlook

He’s the tight end to roster in Green Bay, but if I’m not comfortable playing a single receiver, I’m not tempting fate, even at the TE position where any signs of efficiency (one catch every 10 routes run this season for Kraft) are worthy of consideration.

I’m cautiously optimistic that Kraft will flirt with TE1 status when Jordan Love returns (17+ yard catches in both games this season and 12.2 yards per grab during his collegiate career), but leave him on your wire until we have clarity on that front.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts Start/Sit

• Spread: Colts -1
• Total: 43.5
• Bears implied points: 21.3
• Colts implied points: 22.3

Caleb Williams Fantasy Outlook

Williams entered the league with a prospect profile that mirrored some of the best in recent memory. On that list was Andrew Luck, and while Indy’s former franchise centerpiece struggled in his debut, he corrected to elite form in short order.

Andrew Luck’s first month in the NFL:

• Start No. 1: QB26, 9.3 FP
• Start No. 2: QB10, 19.1 FP
• Start No. 3: QB8, 23.5 FP
• Start No. 4: QB2, 28.9 FP

We are two weeks into Williams’ career and have two duds to show for it. Under no circumstance should his introduction to the pro game diminish what you think of him in the long term, but it is safe to say that Williams isn’t a fantasy asset right now.

Of course, that could change with time. Pedigree players like this, especially with a plus supporting cast, have a way of working out, but not all growth is linear. I’ll be keeping an eye on Williams, but it’ll be from a distance in one-QB leagues.

Anthony Richardson Fantasy Outlook

It’s easy to fall in love with the upside of Richardson, especially after he turns nine completions in Week 1 into a QB4 finish. What we saw against the Packers last weekend was a reminder that a player who is essentially a rookie is going to have dramatic peaks and valleys.

This Bears’ defense is certainly trending in the right direction (ninth-best per-play unit since Week 9), but Richardson’s physical tools are something that can overcome just about any matchup. Of course, his youth is also something that introduces a downside in any matchup as well.

Since the beginning of last season, opponents have completed 47.4% of end-zone targets against the Bears, the highest rate in the league (for context, the NFL average typically hovers around 34%). That has me going back to the Richardson well without much of a second thought (QB7), understanding that defenses are going to continue to adapt.

Richardson’s rushing rates:

• 2023: One rush for every 3.4 pass attempts
• Week 1: One rush for every 3.2 pass attempts
• Week 2: One rush for every 8.5 pass attempts

Will the Colts be able to adjust? I tend to believe so.

D’Andre Swift Fantasy Outlook

The very stoppable force meets the very movable object in Indy when one of the least efficient backs in the sport matches up with a defense that has been offensive.

Let’s start with Swift – his 24 carries have gained 48 yards this season. As if that stat line isn’t depressing enough, how about the fact that 20 of those yards came on a single carry?

The Bears are tied with the Panthers for the fewest red-zone trips this season, something that essentially rules out Swift finding pay dirt and saving your bacon that way. Under normal circumstances, Chicago’s lead back would be a sure-fire bench, but facing the Colts’ run defense doesn’t qualify as “normal circumstances.”

This porous run unit has allowed opposing running backs to pile up 350 rushing yards. Not only does that lead the league, but it’s more than the Ravens, Texans, Patriots, and Saints have allowed. Combined.

Swift has accounted for 77.4% of running back carries in Chicago, positioning him to be the primary beneficiary of this perfect matchup. With nothing in his 2024 statistical makeup suggesting optimism, I have Swift penciled in as a fringe RB2 based on the advantageous matchup.

Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook

After being on the field for 95.3% of the snaps in Week 1, Taylor piled up 135 yards against the Packers in Week 2, finding his rhythm as the game wore on. He was off the field down the stretch, but the fact that he earned four targets after being a zero in the passing game during the Week 1 loss was encouraging.

Taylor doesn’t have a clear path to being the top-scoring back in fantasy, but I’ll match his floor up against almost anyone; as Richardson evolves, Taylor should only gain value with time. The Bears have been solid defensively since the midway point last season and are a unit to be feared – but so is Taylor, and I’ll usually take a solid running back to succeed in any matchup, especially when the game script is likely to work in his favor.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen Fantasy Outlook

Reports seem to have an optimistic spin to them regarding Allen’s Week 3 status after he missed last week with a heel injury, but I’m nervous. It’s rare for athletes to get healthier with time and considering that Allen missed four games last season and seven in 2022, I fear that we might not be fully out of the woods in terms of physical limitations.

Allen did earn 11 targets in Williams’ debut, good for a 37.9% share, an encouraging start. That said, any time where your target count is higher than the yardage gained on your longest reception, your fantasy upside is going to be limited.

I think he has a good shot at exceeding the 6.9 PPR points he scored against the Titans, but my confidence isn’t high enough to rank him as a top-30 receiver. I’d rather gamble on the upside of a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr. or bank on Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s huge Week 2 carrying over to this week.

DJ Moore Fantasy Outlook

The veteran receiver doesn’t have a 20-yard catch yet despite seeing 18 targets, learning the hard way about the limitations of playing with a developing quarterback.

Moore earned 29.4% of the targets last week with Allen out, and his 11.3 PPR PPG up to this point should be viewed as a win. He’s my top-ranked receiver in this game, and that lands him as a low-end WR2 against the fourth-worst third-down defense in the league. My hope is that the Bears can finally sustain some offensive rhythm, and that is why I’d slot him in ahead of Jaylen Waddle in the Skylar Thompson-led offense.

Rome Odunze Fantasy Outlook

For much of last week, we assumed that Odunze would miss Sunday Night Football, but the rookie gutted it out and managed to earn five targets. He pulled down a 27-yard pass, showing us a glimpse of his promise, but betting on him in any capacity right now is a two-leg parlay that offers much more risk than reward.

Rookies can be tough to nail down, and when you need two to align to give you the production you’re looking for, you’re walking a thin line. There might be a point later this season where a Williams/Odunze stack pays off, but we don’t appear to be close to that at the moment.

Keep Odunze rostered for the raw talent, though acknowledge that getting the chance to play him with any level of confidence in the short-term is a very long shot.

Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Of all my preseason takes, Pittman thriving in this offense is the one I am most worried about. With just 52 yards to show for himself, it’s become very clear that we are looking at a mismatch of skill sets.

Pittman wants to win quickly and earn lots of volume in the short pass game without much touchdown equity to show for his time in the NFL.

Richardson wants to extend plays and shorten drives via the chunk play.

See what I mean? I like peanut butter, and I like chicken, but together they are no good. It’s beginning to feel like that could be the situation for Pittman – he’s fine by himself, but in this specific situation, his one-time high-floor skill set isn’t of much value to us.

I’m stubborn and not yet tossing in the towel from a season-long perspective, hoping that Richardson’s game develops with time, but I have no choice but to tank Pittman in my rankings until we see signs of that.

Instead of pushing for a WR1 ranking as I had hoped less than a month ago, Pittman (with a return of Josh Downs only further complicating this projection) is hanging on for dear life to WR2 status, ranking behind Xavier Worthy’s upside and in the same range as receivers like Jaylen Waddle and Amari Cooper who also need their talent to overcome their situations.

Alec Pierce Fantasy Outlook

The NFL leader in aDOT (25.3 yards — for reference, only two others are north of 18 yards) has scored in both games this season, racking up the points for your bench in the process.

Be careful in chasing those points.

Pierce did lead this team in catches, yards, and targets in the upset loss to the Packers last week, but we have a very limited sample of him being a viable target earner. Since the start of last season, the Bears rank 22nd in blitz rate and are pretty clearly buying into the limit-the-chunk-play fad that is sweeping the nation.

I don’t have much confidence Richardson will land a haymaker through the air this week, and that’s why I can’t get Pierce inside my top 40 at the position. A player like Khalil Shakir offers a much less visually appealing skill set and route tree, but I find fantasy points attractive. In that sense, I expect Buffalo’s slot specialist to be the better option when compared to an all-or-nothing option like Pierce this week.

Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Outlook

The rookie has the right skill set for this offense, but there are too many mouths to feed from this small pie. Mitchell was never projected as a high Year 1 target earner, meaning he’d have to be very efficient to grace fantasy lineups.

That’s not a rare profile for a first-year receiver, it’s just a tough sell for an offense led by a sporadic QB. Mitchell is a DFS punt play and a player who will probably pay off his best ball price tag when he inevitably connects with Richardson on a splash play (he was close in Week 1), but trying to guess right in a season-long format isn’t something I’m interested in.

This is exactly the type of player I see managers struggling to cut ties with. I’m not saying you have to, but how many things would have to happen for you to start him with confidence? I’m not sure it’s possible with Richardson under center, and he can be a roster casualty as rosters tighten in the middle of the season for that reason.

Cole Kmet Fantasy Outlook

He was more involved on Sunday night against the Texans (five targets after seeing just one in the opener), but even with an 80% catch rate, he managed just 6.7 PPR fantasy points.

With the injuries at the receiver position, there is the potential for Kmet to repeat his target count from Week 2 this week (Gerald Everett remained a factor with three targets). But given the struggles of Williams up to this point, there’s no reason to think those opportunities are valuable enough to land the tight end inside the top 15 at the position.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings Start/Sit

• Spread: Texans -2.5
• Total: 46
• Texans implied points: 24.3
• Vikings implied points: 21.8

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Outlook

We were collectively impressed with Stroud’s poise versus the blitz as a rookie (114.4 passer rating, fourth best among qualifiers), and guess what? He’s getting better!

Stroud is 15-of-17 for 161 yards and a touchdown in such spots this season (125.7 passer rating), leaving defenses in a ca n’t-win situation. Do you bring the head and get exposed by maybe the most NFL-ready prospect we’ve seen of late? Or do you lay back in coverage and let this three-headed receiving monster pick you apart if Joe Mixon doesn’t do that via the traditional ground game?

I’m not sure what defenses are supposed to do. Stroud’s aDOT is down 13.3% this season from last, meaning there is room for significant fantasy growth with time (remember, he said he wanted to stretch the field more this season than last).

You drafted Stroud as a potential game-breaker, and while the raw counting numbers don’t put him there just yet, the avalanches are coming — this might well be the first taste we get of it in 2024.

Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook

I’m willing to admit that I underestimated Darnold this offseason, but I still don’t think he’s a QB we can rank in the top 15 at the position. Yes, he’s thrown for multiple scores in both games, and yes, he has the best receiver in the game elevating the value of his passes. However, I can’t help but think that he has run extremely hot to open this season and natural regression will pull him down to the mid-range QB2 tier.

The Texans are an above-average defense in terms of generating pressure without bringing an extra defender into the box, something that will allow them to bracket Justin Jefferson. If they can quiet Darnold’s WR1, asking him to hit his season averages (238 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns) is a lot.

If Houston gets their way and has their offense on the field with regularity, Darnold is going to have to punch above his weight in terms of efficiency to earn a starting grade this week – roster him if you’d like, but I don’t think he approaches what he did last week.

Joe Mixon Fantasy Outlook

Bobby Slowik said, entering Week 2, that “we’ll give Joe the ball as many times as necessary,” and that sounded great coming off of a 30-159-1 gashing of the Colts.

It, however, sounded less good when the 28-year-old got his ankle rolled up on against the Bears on Sunday night and had to exit. Mixon has over 2,000 touches on his NFL résumé, and it stands to reason that the team is going to operate with a little more caution than they let on after the strong season debut.

My worries surrounding Mixon entering this season centered around what I assumed would be a fleeting role in the passing game, but with three catches in both contests thus far, he’s been able to keep that part of his profile despite the number of weapons available for Stroud.

Only the Chargers and Steelers have allowed fewer points per drive this season than the Vikings, a start to the season that has my interest. We will see if it sticks against the high-powered Texans – Mixon is a fine RB2 in all formats this weekend if active. If not …

Cam Akers Fantasy Outlook

The Texans ranked 19th in pass rate over expectation last season as Stroud broke out and are up to 11th through two weeks this season.

It’s difficult to see that changing if Mixon sits, thus leaving Akers as a low-end flex play at best, even if he assumes the lead role.

He looked healthy this preseason and that is enough to put him in the conversation, but with a few of the running backs that I’m usually lower than the industry on having plus matchups (Jerome Ford takes on the Giants and Zamir White the Panthers), Akers isn’t a top-30 play for me.

Dare Ogunbowale Fantasy Outlook

Over the course of his career, Ogunbowale has nearly as many targets (123) as rush attempts (138) and I’d expect him to handle the majority of the route running duties out of this backfield should Mixon sit.

There’s a chance he is an interesting DFS punt play in this scenario, as a five-target day would likely pay off his price tag and allow you to pay up elsewhere, but there’s no reason to dig this deep in a season-long setting, especially with the expectation being that Houston is playing with a lead throughout this game.

Aaron Jones Fantasy Outlook

A fumble at the goal line and an in-game injury aren’t exactly what Jones’ managers were looking for after his impressive team debut against the Giants in Week 1 (109 yards and a touchdown). To make matters worse, Ty Chandler proved himself more than capable in the extended work, leading me to believe that this backfield is trending close to a timeshare.

I still prefer Jones given the investment they made this offseason and the strong returns in the pass game up to this point (seven catches on eight targets for 51 yards), but he’s fallen out of my RB2 tier. For this week specifically, I’d rather take my chances on David Montgomery finding the end zone against the Cardinals or Tony Pollard ripping off chunk plays against the Packers.

Ty Chandler Fantasy Outlook

The Texans have proven to be a tough run defense thus far, allowing a league-low 1.9 yards per carry after contact to running backs, and that is why I can’t yet justify moving Chandler onto the Flex radar (assuming Jones’ health, of course).

He did pick up 82 yards on his 10 totes last week, not bad for a player with “sleeper” written all over him at his cost this summer.

READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football RB Sleepers

A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.

For reference, here’s what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:

7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%

Chandler isn’t going away. He might work his way into stand-alone value, but at the very least, he’s more than capable of cratering Jones’ value.

Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook

Andre Johnson averaged 4.6 catches per game through three seasons before establishing himself as an alpha target in Year 4 (6.4 catches per game, a 39.3% increase). Collins averaged 3.8 catches per game through three seasons – he’s hauled in 14 passes through two weeks (252 yards and one touchdown).

He’s not Johnson – because Johnson never had a double-digit touchdown season, a box I believe Collins checks this year. Yeah, you could say I’m a believer in Houston’s alpha receiver.

Tank Dell Fantasy Outlook

After an impressive rookie season, I didn’t think we’d be two weeks into Year 2 and 48.6% of Dell’s yards from scrimmage would be courtesy of the rush. The box score isn’t pretty, but he did short-arm a deep pass last week that, due to his creativity with the ball in his hands, had a shot at turning into a 70-yard score if hauled in.

I think that’s what we are looking at in 2024 for Dell: the need for him to produce when given the opportunity. Collins is going to see enough looks to overcome a bad week in terms of catch rate, and we saw in Week 1 that Stefon Diggs’ veteran savvy puts him in a position to win around the goal line.

That’s a dangerous profile that will cause headaches. Dr. Soppe prescribes you plenty of rest and one tablet of sell-high … after next week. The Texans get the Jaguars in Week 4, a defense that ranks 24th in yards per deep pass attempt and 30th in deep pass touchdown rate.

As far as this week is concerned, Dell is hovering around WR30, and I wouldn’t fault you for playing him over “better” receivers that have backups under center (Jaylen Waddle and Jayden Reed) or QBs that are playing like backups (Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen). That’s more the product of those specific situations than anything – Dell comes preloaded with a wide range of outcomes this weekend, and that can be appealing if your roster lacks upside.

Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook

The former Minnesota Viking has seen six targets in both of his games as a member of the Texans, though it is worth noting that he satisfied a different role in each of those contests.

• Week 1: nine air yards
• Week 2: 59 air yards

Diggs saw three deep targets last week, and while that raises the potential value of his opportunities, I think it’s a net negative for his projection moving forward. We know that Collins can win on all three levels and that Dell is viewed more as a field stretcher – if Diggs’ aDOT rises, he runs into more target competition.

His former employer owns the seventh-lowest opponent aDOT since the beginning of last season, making this a “show me” game of sorts. If Diggs is earning targets less than 10 yards down the field, I’ll move him back into my low-end WR2 tier. For the time being, I’m labeling him as the WR3 in this offense, and that has me sitting him if I have reasonable depth on my roster.

Right now, he occupies the same spot in my rankings as former teammate Khalil Shakir and just about every receiver in the Packers/Titans game. The name inspires more confidence than I have in Diggs (70 receiving yards this season) right now.

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Outlook

*Jefferson has stated that he will be active this week but the status of Jordan Addison remains up in the air

The debate as to who the best receiver is in football might be nearing a consensus. Jefferson has scored in both games this season, including a 97-yarder last week (50 air yards), proving himself to be a quarterback elevator as opposed to someone in danger of falling off a cliff with a change under center.

Jefferson has failed to catch five passes in both games this season, matching his total from 2023. The Vikings rank third in pass rate over expectation thus far, leaving little room for improvement moving forward. The Texans aren’t a pass defense I’m picking on (second-lowest end-zone completion percentage since the beginning of last season), but that’s more of a damning note for everyone else on this roster – Jefferson is inevitable.

Jalen Nailor Fantasy Outlook

With Jordan Addison banged up and Nailor scoring in both games to open this season, I understand why his name is popping up on waiver wire reports, He was a big play threat during his four seasons at Michigan State (16.9 yards per catch), but he caught just 86 passes in those four seasons.

As good as Sam Darnold has been this season, he’s thrown 50 passes. This isn’t a high-volume offense, and with the Texans ranking as a top-10 defense in pressure rate when blitzing since the start of last season, this feels a lot like a high first-read game. Nailor simply isn’t going to fill that role.

Jordan Addison Fantasy Outlook

After playing every game during his productive rookie season, Addison hasn’t been able to stay out of harm’s way in 2024. He sat out last week due to an ankle injury, and while his status is currently up in the air, there’s no reason to sweat this situation.

Addison found the end zone 10 times last season and that was great. Was. The second Kirk Cousins left town, any sort of repeat performance for the USC product went with him, if for no other reason than the receiving pie in Minnesota shrunk.

Career splits:

• Games with 6+ catches: 15.2 PPR PPG
• Games without 6+ catches: 7.6 PPR PPG

You can hold Addison if you feel that your waiver wire is thin but don’t feel obligated to do so if you spot some volume upside in free agency as we inch closer to bye weeks coming into play.

Dalton Schultz Fantasy Outlook

The Texans have yet to look the way of their tight end with consistency (five catches on six targets for 37 yards thus far). In theory, that should remove him from your radar, but with production so limited at the position in the early going this season, investing in an offense with upside is a viable idea.

The Vikings have allowed opponents to complete 97 of 124 TE targets since the start of last season (a league-high 78.2%). Schultz is a tough sell in season-long leagues, but as a cheap DFS option in a PPR setting, you could do worse.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints Start/Sit

• Spread: Saints -2.5
• Total: 49.5
• Eagles implied points: 23.5
• Saints implied points: 26

Jalen Hurts Fantasy Outlook

I was impressed with Hurts on Monday night. Sure, they ended up losing the game, but I thought he looked agile and confident in a game against a fine defense and without his star receiver.

Late in the fourth quarter, he orchestrated a vintage Eagles drive – 17 plays with him running for four first downs, the last of which resulted in six points. If Saquon Barkley holds onto a dump-off pass, Hurts would have been viewed as the hero of the game. Instead, his strong performance was a bit overshadowed.

Hurts is a threat to lead the position in fantasy points in any given week, and with this potentially being a shootout, you’re firing him up with the utmost confidence.

Derek Carr Fantasy Outlook

The owner of the longest multi-pass TD streak in the NFL has this offense clicking at levels we didn’t think possible. His Saints have posted the third-highest EPA per play (0.30) through Week 2 of any team in the past decade, not bad for an offense that few labeled as anything more than average this offseason.

The Eagles’ defense was systematically picked apart by Kirk Cousins in the fourth-quarter two-minute drill that was nearly too efficient, and it will face a much tougher task, on short rest, in New Orleans.

The QB position is loaded with upside — yet, Carr, with virtually no running potential and a top target that doesn’t yet have 100 yards, cracks my top 12 this week. To answer your questions – yes, I’d play him ahead of Dak Prescott (vs. BAL) and the smoking-hot Baker Mayfield (vs. DEN).

Saquon Barkley Fantasy Outlook

It looked like Barkley was about to put on a clinic against the Falcons on Monday night as his first four carries all gained at least nine yards. Of course, we all know how the game ended, but if he holds onto that pass and/or doesn’t have a short touchdown overturned (and eventually punched in via the tush push), I’d be fielding questions about whether Barkley can finish this season as the RB1.

I still think that potential is there, and if he is going to make a serious run at the crown, he’s going to have to overcome tough matchups like this one. The Saints are one of three defenses yet to allow a running back to gain 9+ yards on a carry (32 attempts) and figure to stack the box with Brown not an option on the perimeter for Philadelphia’s passing game.

You’re starting Barkley with the utmost confidence this week and every week, but you’re watching with a close eye in this matchup – if he excels, you might have a league winner on your hands.

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Outlook

Fantasy’s top running back through two weeks (13.5 points ahead of the field) has picked up yardage on an insane 95% of his rushing attempts this season, a nice trend to take into a contest against the worst run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed before contact (118% above league average).

I was worried about Kamara wearing down and a lack of explosive play potential. Those concerns are still rattling around in the back of my head (his last 20+ yard rush came in Week 18 of 2022), but when it comes to right now, you’re counting on him to continue to carry your squad.

A.J. Brown Fantasy Outlook

Entering last weekend, we weren’t sure if Brown (hamstring) would be active for Monday night and now, the Eagles star receiver is expected to miss this game and potentially more.

Last week was Brown’s first missed game since joining the Eagles, and it’s worth noting that the team does have an early bye this season (Week 5). Fantasy managers would be wise to see if this alpha is available at any sort of discount in the trade market – Philadelphia is more focused on winter success than fall victories, positioning them to make sure Brown is at full strength for the stretch run.

And, more importantly, for the fantasy postseason.

In December, the Eagles have games against the Panthers and Commanders, not to mention a home game against a Cowboys defense that didn’t put up much of a fight last week against the Saints. If you’re playing your league to win, you’re just as high now on Brown as you were entering the season.

DeVonta Smith Fantasy Outlook

Smith has opened a season with consecutive games of 12+ PPR fantasy points for the first time in his career. It’s clear that Hurts is comfortable looking his way, something that I believe gets reinforced this weekend and for as long as Brown is sidelined.

Smith saw multiple end-zone targets on Monday night, something he had done just once in his 19 games before. If we are looking at a previously limited receiver coming into his own, this could be the type of player that pops up as one of the most common on championship rosters this winter.

The Eagles are tied with the Lions for most trips to the red zone through two weeks (11), and that has allowed Smith to post consecutive top-20 finishes at the position. Brown’s absence makes optimism around Smith an easy case, but I don’t think this breakout goes off the rails when Brown returns.

Britain Covey Fantasy Outlook

The third-year pro out of Utah was on your television plenty against the Falcons on Monday. I thought he showed well for himself, but there’s a massive gap between that and mattering for standard-sized fantasy leagues.

Week 2 was probably pretty close to the peak usage in Covey’s profile and it still wasn’t enough to move the fantasy needle.

Chris Olave Fantasy Outlook

If you had told me that the Saints would be chasing historic offensive efficiency marks after a 2-0 start, I would have bet the house on Olave’s Year 3 breakout being well underway.

Instead, we have more questions than answers. His aDOT is down 22.3% from a season ago — a trend I’d accept if he was excelling out of the slot and getting those easy button targets. But he’s not … not at all.

In 2023, Olave ran 38% of his routes out of the slot and, despite a decline in depth of target, that rate has tanked to 10.2% through two games this season. The Week 2 beatdown of the Cowboys was a step in the right direction, but there is no denying that this is a rough start for Olave if we are to assume that this is the peak of New Orleans’ offensive powers (they have 91 points and he has just 92 receiving yards).

We are seeing a Rashid Shaheed-like receiver breakout in Detroit with Jameson Williams similarly stretching the field. It took a week, but Amon-Ra St. Brown’s value rebounded from a one-week struggle and is now exactly where I had it entering the season. Will that be the case for Olave? Though Shaheed’s skill set is more similar to his than St. Brown’s is to Williams’, I’m holding firm with Olave as a lineup lock.

Producing under 60 yards in five of six games during an early run last season, we’ve seen dry spells in this profile before; I’m hoping that when Olave comes out of this minor funk, he does so in a big way.

Rashid Shaheed Fantasy Outlook

Is there a player more feared down the field right now? Tyreek Hill typically holds that role, but with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined, the fear he strikes in the hearts of defenses takes a hit. Ja’Marr Chase and DK Metcalf have seen their depth of target drop in a major way, likely removing them from this equation.

Shaheed’s rankings:

• Fantasy Points: WR9
• Expected Fantasy Points: WR52

I really don’t care who you view as the most feared vertical threat, the point is that Shaheed is on the list with Carr playing the way he is right now. The fact that the Saints fed him three rush attempts last week was great to see – they clearly value his skill set and are looking to maximize what he does well in an offense that is clicking on all cylinders.

There is one player that I think is feared on those deep passes more, and it’s Jameson Williams. While both speedsters hold similar skill sets, I have Williams just inside of my top 20 at the position while Shaheed sits just outside of my top 30. It’s a numbers game – neither of these receivers profile as an elite target earner, so I’m going to lean on the player who plays alongside a WR1 that mirrors less what he does.

Olave could swallow up Shaheed’s targets in short order while I view Williams’ vertical role as more stable next to Amon-Ra St. Brown. I don’t think that necessarily happens, but that risk is why I have these two breakout players separated by 10-ish spots in my Week 3 rankings.

Dallas Goedert Fantasy Outlook

I was hopeful that Goedert would see more opportunities with A.J. Brown sidelined, but that didn’t come to fruition. The Eagles committed to the ground game and went with a pass-catcher committee behind DeVonta Smith.

Without much in the way of reliable volume, you’re chasing a touchdown if you’re playing Goedert. That’s the case for about a dozen tight ends these days. Considering that Philadelphia is as run-heavy in scoring position as any team in the league — coupled with the fact that opponents have yet to complete an end-zone pass against the Saints on eight attempts — there are better options at tight end.

Taysom Hill Fantasy Outlook

I don’t blame you if you want to get exposure to this Saints offense wherever you can find it, though the tight end position is murky at best. Hill offers the most upside due to his versatility, even if taking Carr off the field at this moment in time would require crazy pills, but he was taken to the hospital with a chest injury after the win against the Cowboys.

All reports suggest that the injury is nothing serious, giving Hill a chance to avoid missing time. Should he sit, fantasy managers will still be put between a rock and a hard place, as Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson have both scored this season. That said, Hill did practice on Thursday and should be viewed as more likely than not to suit up this week — for the Saints, not necessarily for you unless you’re stuck in a tough spot (very possible given the state of the tight end position).

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers Start/Sit

• Spread: Steelers -1.5
• Total: 35.5
• Chargers implied points: 17
• Steelers implied points: 18.5

Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook

The Bolts stayed on the East Coast for the week, something that hopefully prevents them from a slugging start. The problem with Herbert isn’t Herbert, it’s the opportunity count. This team doesn’t want to unleash him, and as long as they are having success, why would they?

For the season, Herbert has 274 passing yards on 46 attempts and has been held without a 30-yard completion. If the Chargers are going to be successful this year, their passing game isn’t going to matter in our game.

Justin Fields Fantasy Outlook

There are four players with a passer rating north of 90 in each of their past four games – Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, C.J. Stroud, and Fields. He’s simply doing everything that this coaching staff is asking of him; while that may not mean gaudy fantasy numbers, it keeps him on the field as the leader of yet another overachieving Mike Tomlin team.

He’s not a fantasy starter right now, but if you have a spot for a luxury stash, he’s on the shortlist. We know the skill set is fantasy-friendly, and if deployed correctly, he could give value to a fantasy team that is lacking a rock-solid option under center (Giants in Week 8, Commanders in Week 10, Bengals in Week 13).

J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Outlook

We can argue all day about whether Dobbins is a good sell for the rest of the season, but how about we put that on hold and just enjoy the ride?

Everyone in your league is well aware of the injury profile and the unsustainable nature of some of these big runs. So, instead of selling him for pennies on the dollar, ride this out. Dobbins is the first player to open a season with consecutive 130-yard performances since Warrick Dunn for the Falcons in 2006, and he’s looked remarkable in doing so.

He’s a fantasy starter in all formats, and while banking on him to be the fourth-highest scorer at the position (his current standing) is a bit optimistic, he’s still a top-20 option despite a difficult matchup.

Gus Edwards Fantasy Outlook

We knew Edwards was a regression candidate after a storybook 2023 campaign, but his stock is crashing with seemingly every carry.

In contrast to what Dobbins is doing, Edwards has managed just 85 yards on 29 carries this season. We know he’s a zero in the passing game – in this era of committee backs, you can do better than a one-dimensional option that plays in a below-average scoring offense.

Najee Harris Fantasy Outlook

For the season, Harris has played 53.2% of the snaps, an underwhelming rate when you consider that Pittsburgh has been pretty upfront about the health, or lack thereof, of Warren (36.3% snap share).

Harris’ profile is nothing new. Volume, volume, volume. He is one of just four running backs with at least 17 carries in both weeks (Rhamondre Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, and Jordan Mason the others), a role that projects as sustainable until we get proof that Warren is at full strength.

Harris isn’t exciting, and I don’t expect this game to be highlighted on “NFL RedZone” very often, but that doesn’t mean he can’t provide RB2 value, something he’s been doing for years.

Jaylen Warren Fantasy Outlook

With only 15 touches this season, it’s easy to be discouraged with Warren’s start, but he’s getting healthier, and his nine carries for 42 yards last week in Denver were good to see.

The Chargers have allowed a league-high 147 running back targets since the beginning of last season, making this a potential breakout spot. Warren, despite the aforementioned snap disadvantage, is dead even with Harris in routes run (20 apiece), giving him an avenue to post a decent stat line.

I’m not Flexing him this week if you have receivers that offer a strong profile, but in this matchup, this could be a turning-point situation.

Ladd McConkey Fantasy Outlook

If forced to pick a receiver on this roster to produce the most Flex-worthy weeks, I choose the Georgia product. I don’t think the weekly ceiling is all that high, but with the lowest aDOT among these receivers and the clear top slot role, an elevated floor is more in his profile than it is for his teammates.

That said, no Charger pass catcher has cleared 51 receiving yards in a game this season, and I’m not sure that changes as long as Jim Harbaugh has his way. McConkey is my WR39 this week, and I’d label it as a long shot for a receiver on this roster to ever crack my top 30.

Quentin Johnston Fantasy Outlook

The 21st overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft has been the punchline of most jokes, but he’s caught eight of 11 targets this season and is coming off of a multi-score game against the lowly Panthers.

The pedigree makes Johnston at least interesting, but given how this offense wants to run, he’s really going to have to separate himself from his teammates to work his way into my Flex rankings.

Last September, Herbert averaged 30 completions per game – through two weeks, he has 31 completions. It works in the favor of these receivers that the running backs aren’t a big threat as pass catchers, and that has me watching with a careful eye, it’s just a careful eye while they ride the pine for my team.

Joshua Palmer Fantasy Outlook

It’s too early to say that any receiver has played himself out of this committee situation, but Palmer is on the outside looking in right now.

Chargers WRs’ snap shares/PPR fantasy points:

• Johnston: 68.1% / 28.9
• Palmer: 58.8% / 7.4
• McConkey: 56.3% / 19.5

Palmer is a talented young player and I’m not ordering these receivers with the utmost confidence, but it’s clear who ranks third as we stand here entering Week 3. I’m not playing any of them, but I am holding across the board, at least until bye weeks force my hand.

George Pickens Fantasy Outlook

Pittsburgh’s lone receiver on our radar might have more fantasy points wiped off the board via penalty than actual points produced. That’s obviously a problem, but it’s not the type of thing we’d expect to sustain over time.

In terms of plays that have counted, 38.5% of Pickens’ yardage this season has come from a single reception (Week 1 at Falcons). The big-play potential is there and given the locked-in role, betting on this upside still makes sense over the course of the entire season.

In the scope of Week 3, I’m not too interested. Both of these offenses rank among the five slowest in terms of pace, leaving us in a spot where quality and quantity of snaps are unlikely to help you. Pickens is my favorite receiver in this game, but that’s damning with faint praise.

Pat Freiermuth Fantasy Outlook

The Steelers are 2-0. They’ve also scored just 31 points. This team is succeeding while managers holding any of their assets are struggling to stay afloat, and I’m not sure we see that change any time soon.

• Week 1 at ATL: four targets, 27 yards, zero TDs
• Week 2 at DEN: four targets, 39 yards, zero TDs

Underwhelming, right? With those numbers, Freiermuth has been a top-13 tight end both weeks. The state of the position is nothing short of ugly, and while that puts a player like Patty Football on the streaming radar, why not aim a little higher in terms of risk/reward while understanding that a low floor is less damning at a position where so few points are expected?

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Start/Sit

• Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
• Total: 39.5
• Broncos implied points: 16.5
• Buccaneers implied points: 23

Bo Nix Fantasy Outlook

The fact that Nix has 25+ rushing yards in both games this season is encouraging, but with no touchdowns (and four interceptions) on his 77 pass attempts, Nix is well off of fantasy radars, even against a pass-funnel defense.

Baker Mayfield Fantasy Outlook

Mayfield is checking every box. In Week 1, he got Mike Evans multiple touchdowns; in Week 2, he heavily featured Chris Godwin. For the season he has 55 rushing yards, a nice boost to his fantasy stock that is well ahead of where it was a month ago.

Do I think he can sustain the 9.7 yards he is averaging per pass? Of course not, but we can address regression another time. The Broncos lead the league in pressure rate this season (48.1% thanks to a 51.9% blitz rate), and a confident Mayfield should have no issue in picking apart this defense with quick reads.

Mayfield is very much a starting option for those who drafted Caleb Williams as their preseason option or are worried about Dak Prescott facing the Ravens.

Javonte Williams Fantasy Outlook

Williams is the lead back in Denver (62.5% snap share last week), I’m just not sure it really matters. He is averaging just 2.1 yards per carry (19 attempts for 40 yards), saving your Week 2 loyalty on the back of five receptions.

After two weeks, it has become clear that this is a flawed Broncos offense, which means that all of their roster-able pieces need to show me that they belong in the Flex conversation before I blindly put them there.

Jaleel McLaughlin Fantasy Outlook

The explosive nature of his game is encouraging, but the opportunity simply hasn’t been there (sub-35% snap share in both games). He’s very much worthy of holding onto, but my fear is that we are chasing his role changing much the way we’ve done for Jaylen Warren for years.

Rachaad White Fantasy Outlook

White has been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on 40% of his rush attempts this season, and it really doesn’t matter given his role in this pass-centric offense.

I’ll listen to the idea of him losing snaps with time, but I’m not projecting it until we see it (68.9% snap share in Week 1 and 70.2% in Week 2). The Broncos’ defense has the third-highest rush success rate this season (73.2%), a matchup note that will mean more in other matchups – look for White to continue to produce stable PPR numbers in a very untraditional way.

Bucky Irving Fantasy Outlook

The rookie is one of the top five handcuffs in the league, especially if you believe this offense is going to look like a top-10 unit. That said, his path to stand-alone value isn’t clear because the man ahead of him on the depth chart carries a low floor.

This offense isn’t built on a traditional run game, and with the primary two receivers accounting for 63.9% of Tampa Bay’s receptions this season, a reliance on the passing game is a problem.

Irving could well work ahead of White with time, and that potential requires you to hold tight. Patience is a trait of successful fantasy managers – this Bucs schedule opens up late, setting the stage for Irving’s stock to peak.

Week 12 at New York Giants
Week 13 at Carolina Panthers
Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers

Courtland Sutton Fantasy Outlook

I find quarterbacks like Bryce Young (when he was starting) much easier to deal with than the Bo Nixes and Will Levises of the world. With Young, it became obvious in a hurry that he wasn’t going to support much in the way of fantasy production, making pulling the plug on Diontae Johnson rather painless.

In the cases of Nix and Levis, we see a few plays weekly that draw us in. They are the personification of golf – you hit one good shot and you sign up for 18 more holes next weekend. Nix and Levis make just enough plays and flash just enough potential for us to hold out hope. For every game where their receivers do nothing, there is a Calvin Ridley performance from Week 2 that sucks you back in.

Sutton is going to have one of those moments, maybe multiple, and I could not be more sure that I will miss it. This season, he’s turned 16 targets into just five catches and 64 yards. Nothing about what we have seen through eight quarters suggests that this passing game is close to clicking; yet, there will be a game sometime soon that features a Sutton bomb and a top-20 finish.

Maybe that happens against the pass-funnel Buccaneers. But wouldn’t that be far too logical? I never hit a good iron shot from the fairway, it always seems to be from the woods, under a tree, and through the rough. So maybe next week in New York against the Jets?

Sutton isn’t a top-35 receiver for me this week, and I don’t think he ever will be. He’s ranked right alongside Ridley, both profiling as teasing DFS options at their cost that have potential.

Mike Evans Fantasy Outlook

Good quarterbacks can put points on the board in today’s NFL while great ones can do it in a variety of ways. I’ve been as impressed as anyone with Mayfield’s start to this season, but we know by now that he is, at best, “good” and not “great.”

Just look at last season. For the first three months of the season, Evans was doing Evans things, but the second Mayfield established a connection with Godwin, Evans’ usage dipped and he relied even more than usual on finding the end zone. This season has started how 2023 ended, and while Tampa’s WR1 paid you off in Week 1 with a pair of scores, he’s seen just 12 targets through two weeks and has been held without a 25-yard gain.

None of that is to say that you should panic. Yet. It is worth noting that Mayfield’s aDOT is down 30.2% from last season — if that sustains, we could have a problem. Patrick Surtain II is more likely to match up with Evans than Godwin, and that served as my tie-break in terms of who to rank higher this week, but both are safely inside my top 20 and deserve to be played, even if betting on both is dangerous.

Chris Godwin Fantasy Outlook

The pride of Penn State has certainly been making fantasy managers smile lately, as he and Mayfield have picked up right where they left off last season, pushing the veteran into the strong WR2 tier in PPR leagues.

Godwin has hauled in at least six passes in five of his past six regular season games, and if you project that stretch throughout a full 17-game season, we are talking about fantasy’s MVP given his draft-day cost.

Godwin’s pace (when extending his past six games):

• 113 catches
• 1,600 receiving yards
• 8.5 touchdowns

You don’t have to be a math major to understand that reaching any of those thresholds is unlikely, but he is the top-scoring fantasy receiver to date (1.8 PPR points clear of Nico Collins) and is the only player at the position to finish top 12 both weeks.

At this point, a fifth straight 1,000-yard season feels inevitable. The question fantasy managers will have is about his scoring rate – entering this season, he saw his touchdown catch total decline in back-to-back-to-back seasons.

Labeling him as a “sell high” is only helpful if there is a buyer in your league. I think we just saw the best two-game run from Godwin this season, but I don’t think he’s a sell-before-this-house-of-cards-crashes type of option.

Jalen McMillan Fantasy Outlook

Generally speaking, I’m not a believer in receiver handcuffs, but if you’re going to go that direction, it may as well be in a concentrated offense that struggles to run the ball. The Buccaneers rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season, an offensive philosophy that is unlikely to change given the personnel at their disposal.

The rookie scored on 10.4% of his collegiate catches and profiles as a big-play threat if given the opportunity, but with just five targets up to this point, he’s nowhere near lineups sans an injury to Evans or Godwin (I prefer him as an Evans replacement, but just getting onto the field would elevate him into the Flex conversation).

Cade Otton Fantasy Outlook

Given the volume of snaps he plays, Cardio Cade posting a negative point total is an accomplishment worth noting in this space.

He’s not a viable option in your league. Or a two-TE league. Maybe not in an NFC-only league, either.

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders Start/Sit

• Spread: Raiders -5.5
• Total: 41
• Panthers implied points: 17.8
• Raiders implied points: 23.3

Andy Dalton Fantasy Outlook

The Panthers remain committed to Bryce Young long-term, but it was announced before Week 2 ended that Dalton would be taking over this offense.

It should go without saying that things can’t get much worse, but “better” and “meaningful for fantasy” are not mutually exclusive. Dalton has been held under 13.5 fantasy points in five of his most recent six road starts – the best case here is that Dalton gives a single Panthers skill player a chance to sneak onto Flex radars in deep leagues, not that he himself would hold any value.

Gardner Minshew II Fantasy Outlook

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “Minshew to lead the league in completion percentage (77.5%)” wasn’t on your bingo card for what we would see through two weeks.

Even with the highly efficient play, Minshew has finished outside of the top 15 producers at the position in both weeks. The Mustache himself doesn’t move the needle for us, but his commitment to his stars is something worth tracking, as he doesn’t have a ton of job security.

Minshew through two weeks:

• 51.5% of targets have gone to Davante Adams or Brock Bowers
• 52.7% of completions have gone to Adams or Bowers

His willingness to pepper his two primary pass catchers with targets has allowed them to both put up numbers that satisfy us. Can he continue to do that? What if this team moves on to Aidan O’Connell? Those are questions to consider for your Raider pieces moving forward, and by “moving forward,” I mean after they take advantage of the JV roster that the Panthers will put up against them this weekend.

Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders Fantasy Outlook

Running backs on bad teams face an uphill battle, and that profile holds even less value when stuck in a committee situation. Maybe the move to Dalton under center adds some life to this offense and Hubbard (four catches on five targets last week) can return viable numbers, but you can’t in good faith, this early in the season, rely on either of these backs.

Zamir White Fantasy Outlook

Vegas’ coaching staff was quick to blame the lack of running room for White’s lack of success thus far (3.1 yards per carry), providing managers some hope that their projected bell cow can hold onto enough volume to justify starting, but this is a very fluid situation.

In the upset win of the Ravens, White played 65% of the snaps to Alexander Mattison’s 21.7%. In theory, that should inspire confidence, and it does. At least for this week, that is.

The game script isn’t going to favor the Raiders consistently, though I do expect that to be the case in this spot, and that is why you can get away with Flexing him … for now.

Alexander Mattison Fantasy Outlook

Mattison finished off a drive last week with a one-yard touchdown after Bowers did the heavy lifting to get to that point. We saw enough of him in Minnesota to feel comfortable evaluating him as a below-average option in terms of efficiency, but if he is getting valuable carries, he is rosterable at the very least.

To be honest, I’m not excited about either of these Raiders backs, and I don’t think either is going to be worth your while long-term if the carries get split.

Diontae Johnson Fantasy Outlook

The veteran has seen exactly six targets in both games this season, a number that is on the low end of acceptable for a receiver on an average offense and not enough for a member of what could prove to be one of the worst units in recent memory.

Johnson has shown the ability to get open at the NFL level, but his talents have proven no match for the overall ineptitude of this offense – those 12 targets have picked up just 34 yards. I think it’s more likely than not that the efficiency improves with time, regardless of who is under center, but I have a hard time seeing the scoring equity ever rising to the point where Johnson is a weekly option.

Adam Thielen Fantasy Outlook

The veteran receiver had his moment in the sun early last season, but since then, he’s been Bryce Younged into oblivion. Now, Dalton taking over this offense for the short term is a change that can only help (Thielen has reached 50 receiving yards just once since Thanksgiving). Still, you really have to be in a bind for this to help in a meaningful way.

Having said that, I’m of the belief that fringe pieces are worth stashing when a change under center occurs. I’m not optimistic that Thielen is fantasy-relevant under Dalton or even that Dalton starts more than a few games for this team, but we are introducing a new factor into the mix – if Thielen is sitting on your wire, what do you have to lose?

Davante Adams Fantasy Outlook

There were concerns this offseason that the Raiders would go to a ground-and-pound offense from the 1950s, thus bringing volume downside into Adams’ equation if the QB play is sporadic.

I still don’t think Las Vegas is going to be competitive long-term, but their structure isn’t likely to impact Adams’ status as a locked-in fantasy asset. His 26-yard score last week was a nice reminder that he is among the best in the game and more than capable of overcoming limitations around him.

It’s possible that the former Packer draws some DFS attention this week if for no other reason than any player facing the Panthers is going to generate optimism. Adams has been held under 60 receiving yards in five of his past six games when favored, an odd trend that I thought I’d share.

Jakobi Meyers Fantasy Outlook

Bowers’ immediate success makes Meyers barely worth a roster spot, especially if you’re building in regression from Minshew. Through two games, 36.7% of his receiving yards have come on a single catch, a rate that is awfully dangerous to bet on in a conservative offense.

The Panthers are, of course, one of the most vulnerable defenses in the game (bottom three in both third-down and red-zone conversion rates), so if you wanted to extend a DFS lifeline, I wouldn’t blame you. That said, I’d rather save that bullet for if/when O’Connell takes over this offense.

If there isn’t a must-add on your wire, I’m holding onto Meyers and hoping that we get a look at an offensive change before I’m forced to make a roster decision.

Brock Bowers Fantasy Outlook

It’s hard to be as wrong as fast as the redraft industry was on Bowers, your humble narrator included. The thought process was sound, or so I thought. Betting against a rookie tight end in an iffy passing offense with an alpha WR1 already in town seemed like the percentage play, but as it turns out, playing the percentages doesn’t matter when discussing an outlier talent.

The Raiders showed us this preseason that they valued Bowers’ versatility, and they’ve continued to beat us over the head with it during the regular season. He’s caught 15 of 17 targets this season and was inches away from finding pay dirt and having an even better week.

Most receiving yards by a TE since 2000, first two career games:

• Bowers: 156
• Will Dissly: 147
• Aaron Hernandez: 146
• T.J. Hockenson: 138

Bowers has more catches in those games than Hernandez and Hockenson combined. He’s posted consecutive TE3 finishes (PPR) and has yet to play 70% of the snaps in a game. At this point, it’s fair to consider Bowers for the top tier at the position, and if you were bold enough to bet on his talent this summer, you’ve set yourself up to win consistently at the hardest position to project.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks Start/Sit

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5
• Total: 41.5
• Dolphins implied points: 18.3
• Seahawks implied points: 22.8

Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Outlook

Miami’s signal-caller has been placed on IR and will miss at least the next four games. I think you can cut ties with him, assuming you don’t have an injured reserve spot in which to stash him, as the skill set isn’t special enough to tie up a roster spot for the next month (and potentially much longer).

Skylar Thomspon is poised to take over for now, and he’s worthy of being added in two-QB formats simply because of the weapons at his disposal and the thirst for the position in those leagues.

My expectations are low to say the least, even against a defense that I don’t really fear.

Geno Smith Fantasy Outlook

The Dolphins have seen their opponents’ aDOT rise 7.5% in the early going this season compared to their last, and that should fit into the Ryan Grubb system.

Smith is one of five QBs to post two straight top-12 finishes to open this season, though the Week 1 stat line was impacted by a flukey touchdown run. He’s a top-20 quarterback for me, but I can’t get too much higher than that due to the depth at the position and Smith relying on extreme efficiency just to get on the fringe of playable.

De’Von Achane Fantasy Outlook

Talk about a complicated profile. Achane is clearly a special talent and it would appear that the Dolphins have committed to him as “the guy”, but there are a lot of risks now with the flow of this offense in flux.

Let’s start with the good. Achane has opened this season with a pair of 10+ carry and 7+ catch performances. Since 2011, only four times has a running back had a longer such streak (Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson, and Saquon Barkley). Over that stretch, those four are responsible for eight of the 12 RB seasons of 350+ PPR points.

• McCaffrey (2019): 471.2 points
• Johnson (2016): 407.8 points
• McCaffrey (2023): 391.3 points
• Barkley (2018): 385.8 points
• McCaffrey (2018): 385.5 points
• Kamara (2020): 377.8 points
• McCaffrey (2022): 356.4 points
• Kamara (2018): 354.2 points

That’s royalty, and that is the company Achane is trending toward through 13 career games. His 7.2 yards-per-touch rate isn’t going to be sustained throughout his entire career, but his status as one of the most talented in the game doesn’t seem likely to go anywhere anytime soon.

The ‘Fins are as good as anyone at getting their talents in advantageous spots (Achane this season: Targeted on 31.1% of routes this season, up from 21.9% as a rookie, thanks to a -1.3-yard aDOT – they are scheming up pseudo-punt-return spots within the flow of their offense), and the NFL as a whole has yet to prove capable of slowing him for 60 consecutive minutes.

OK, now for the hard conversations. Tua Tagovailoa was only an average quarterback by our custom Week 1 QB Rankings, and that might be the best-case scenario when it comes to evaluating the signal-caller situation in Miami moving forward.

Through two weeks, 31.3% of Achane’s carries have failed to gain yardage, more than double his rate from a season ago and something that is largely the result of marginal, at best, quarterback play. Barkley’s name appeared on that list above and is among the names that come to mind when watching Achane play – he was stuck in a QB-needy situation last season, and, despite all of the talent in the world along with elite usage, failed to finish inside the top 30 at the position in 38.5% of his games during the fantasy season.

Achane is a fantasy starter, but I think it’s possible we’ve seen his only streak of 20+ point games of the season. There is no denying that there is risk involved in betting against a rare talent like this, but if you wanted to float out Achane’s name in trade offers, I wouldn’t be against moving on from him.

Raheem Mostert Fantasy Outlook

It’s almost like a 32-year-old running back coming off a career-high touch count that has gone through exactly one season without missing a game (2019) is a flight risk.

News broke a day in advance of the game last week that Mostert would miss Week 2, and the fact that those reports were followed by “the chest injury will not land him on injured reserve” doesn’t exactly paint a positive short-term picture. It is worth noting that the Dolphins have an early bye this season (Week 6), making a ramp-up recovery period ahead of that very possible.

Simply put, you can’t play a secondary RB in this offense right now. I don’t think we can have confidence in Mostert in the short term, even if active. Miami elected to give Achane 81.5% of the running back carries last week against the Bills, a remarkable rate considering the Dolphins really weren’t competitive for the entirety of the second half.

Jaylen Wright (Week 2: five carries for four yards) deserves to remain rostered for now given his explosive skill set and proximity to a role, but with bye weeks quickly approaching, he could be on the chopping block sooner than later should this offense prove inept.

Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Outlook

An oblique injury sidelined Walker last week and is likely to hold him out for at least one more game, making this the third straight season with multiple missed games.

His star shined bright in the Week 1 win over the Broncos (22 touches for 106 yards and a score), a level of production I’d expect to continue when he returns to action.

You’re holding him now if you have him, and if the team currently with him is in panic mode, go ahead and float a low-ball trade offer.

Zach Charbonnet Fantasy Outlook

Charbonnet posted a 95.5% snap share in Week 2, the highest mark by a running back this season as he assumed Walker’s role in its entirety.

In the spot start, Charbonnet posted his second NFL game with 30+ rushing yards, 30+ receiving yards, and a rushing score. All other Seattle RBs since 2020 have two such games (Walker and Alex Collins), an ode to the skill set that is in his profile.

In a game in which Seattle is expected to win, I have Charbonnet labeled as a starting option in all formats. He’s a nice matchup play, ranking in the same range as D’Andre Swift (at IND) and Jerome Ford (vs. NYG).

Tyreek Hill Fantasy Outlook

The Dolphins are 1-1, but it’s been pretty underwhelming (they’ve been tied or leading for 29 offensive snaps this season – they averaged 39.8 such snaps per game in 2023) and it might not get better, given the state of the quarterback position.

Through two games, Hill has one touchdown. That score has accounted for 5.6% of his targets – and 46% of his fantasy production. That’s a rate that is far from stable in an offense with no moving pieces, let alone one set to see below-average quarterback play for the foreseeable future.

Percentage of routes earning a target:

• 2024: 16.1%
• 2023: 25.5%
• 2022: 22.4%

Hill has 14 end-zone targets over his past 25 regular-season games, but four of them came in a single contest. Outside of that game, we are looking at essentially one end-zone opportunity for every 9.5 quarters of action, and if the big plays dry up due to the decline of quarterback production, the lack of usage in close is likely to result in some ugly weeks.

You’re stuck. Nobody in your league is going to pay a reasonable price for Hill with the Tagovailoa situation being what it is, putting you between a rock and a hard place. His raw talent lands him as a starter in my rankings and I suspect that to be the case moving forward, though his path to returning anything close to a profit based on your investment this summer is, without question, off the table.

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Outlook

The volume of looks has tanked thus far, but where he is on the field had me considering him a fine buy option prior to the Tagovailoa injury.

Waddle’s usage patterns:

• 2024: 22.8% of routes in slot
• 2023: 18.3% of routes in slot
• Career: 77.4% slot catch rate, 69.5% elsewhere

I’m not exactly breaking news when saying that his value is in trouble, though I do think, based on expectations, he could lose less value than Hill. That said, he’s far from a safe start. I’m treating him with how I have Jayden Reed labeled, an explosive athlete in an offense with serious quality-of-throw concerns.

DK Metcalf Fantasy Outlook

What a difference a week makes. Metcalf had a 16% target share in Week 1 against the Broncos and easily finished as Seattle’s WR3 in terms of fantasy production.

I don’t think anyone truly pivoted off of him as a result of the season opener, but it was good to see him rebound to dismantle the Patriots to the tune of a 10-129-1 stat line. The big performance was highlighted by a 56-yard touchdown (32 air yards) on his first target courtesy of a broken coverage, a nice reminder that he is always one play away from breaking the slate.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s pending breakout isn’t something Metcalf’s managers should be sweating as long as Tyler Lockett’s downside coincides with it. JSN is going to continue to see the majority of his usage come near the line of scrimmage, thus leaving the door open for these big plays to continue.

That said, it is worth noting that, outside of the touchdown last week, Metcalf’s aDOT checked in at 9.4. His career number is 13.2 yards, and I’m projecting him to trend in that direction under Ryan Grubb, but the shorter targets have my attention in a good way – if I have shares of Metcalf, I’m happy to give up some ceiling potential to raise his projectable floor.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Outlook

Usually a season breakout requires a few breadcrumbs. We are teased with potential and whiff a few times before, eventually, seeing our loyalty be rewarded.

Not here. The pride of Ohio State put himself on the weekly starter radar with on single game and did it against a strong defense that shut down the Bengals in Week 1.

• Week 2: 172 air yards
• First four career games in September: 38 air yards

Smith-Njigba was clearly worked into the script in a significant way (three of the first four targets and seven of the first 12) and his versatility was on full display, something the Seahawks had been hesitant to showcase before.

JSN was drafted as the WR2 in this offense and not only is that clearly the case, I have him considerably closer to WR1 than WR3. Miami ranks below the league average on short passes in terms of completion and touchdown percentage – these are the types of matchups where Smith-Njigba owns a nice floor. If the vertical routes we saw last week are here to stay, a top-15 upside is in his profile.

Tyler Lockett Fantasy Outlook

The veteran will have his moments this season, and if you want to get cute with him in a DFS lineup, maybe you can capitalize. That said, he’s never going to be ranked as a fantasy starter for me in redraft and this isn’t the spot where I’m throwing a dart at him in daily contests.

Since the beginning of last season, Lockett averages 24.2% more yards per route when Smith is blitzed – the Dolphins ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in blitz rate last season and are trending in that direction again in 2024.

If you’re trying to take a positive look at Lockett, he has hauled in eight of nine targets this season and drew a pass interference penalty in the end zone in New England. That’s a start, but I think you’re trying too hard – Lockett was a great fantasy asset for years, but none of that production is going to help you win in 2024.

Jonnu Smith Fantasy Outlook

The veteran tight end has been targeted on 19.6% of routes this season, a tick up from his surprisingly effective 2023 season (18.7%). If we were to get optimistic news surrounding Tagovailoa, there is streamer appeal in this profile, but there’s no reason to jump on the wagon ahead of time right now.

Noah Fant Fantasy Outlook

There was some thought this preseason that Fant, a 2019 first-round pick, would play a consistent role in this offense, but as JSN trends toward a breakout, it’s becoming clear that there just isn’t enough meat on this bone.

Fant did run 34 routes and isn’t being pushed at the position. If you’re a Geno Smith believer, maybe his TE can prove worthy of streaming consideration as bye weeks approach, but there’s no need to get ahead of that right now.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Start/Sit

• Spread: Ravens -1.5
• Total: 48.5
• Ravens implied points: 25
• Cowboys implied points: 23.5

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Outlook

The Ravens as a whole underwhelmed against the Raiders last weekend, but there’s no real reason to worry about the reigning MVP. In the loss, Jackson extended his streak to eight consecutive games with a 45+ yard completion or a 20+ yard rush, a fantasy-friendly skill set that is going nowhere.

I suspect this offense will hit its stride with time. This is a different structure with Derrick Henry leading the backfield and Isaiah Likely developing – it should be expected that these changes require reps to get down to a science.

That said, Jackson has fed Zay Flowers double-digit targets in both games and that provides me with optimism this week and moving forward that he deserves to be considered a Tier 1 option at the position.

Dak Prescott Fantasy Outlook

Prescott has yet to post top-15 numbers at the position in a game this season, and this generally isn’t the type of spot where I call his number if I have a better option.

Splits last season, by opponent:

• Against playoff teams: 17.7 FP PPG, 0.48 FP per pass, 8.6 aDOT
• Against non-playoff teams: 21.9 FP PPG, 0.54 FP per pass, 7.7 aDOT

The Ravens have the potential to bleed clock given their running game and the ability to win with short passes, increasing the importance of efficiency for Prescott. Is he up for the challenge?

I’m not so sure. He completed just 59.4% of his passes against a stingy Browns defense in Week 1, and if that is the version of him we get on Sunday, he’s going to have a hard time keeping up with the streaking Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield, the two QBs who round out my starting tier at the position.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook

Too many people waste brain power on a player like Henry. You drafted him as a starter, he has scored both weeks, and he touched the ball 19 times last week despite the loss.

You can nitpick his first two games, but at the end of the day, there’s no action to take. I’m aware that his production has been heavily impacted by two scoring drives, but that’s part of the math when it comes to investing in Henry.

This season, five times has an offense been in a goal-to-go situation against the Cowboys – they’ve walked away with five touchdowns. Isn’t that what you want?

Todd Monken showed some creativity last week in having Henry take a wildcat snap, sending Jackson out to the perimeter. As this offense evolves, I don’t think you’re going to be left unsatisfied with your Henry shares.

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Outlook

You’re chasing a touchdown if you’re playing Elliott, and this isn’t the best matchup to do it as the Ravens are allowing a league-low 0.31 yards per carry to running backs before contact, a category they ranked 30th in a year ago.

If you’re trying to talk yourself into Elliott as a Flex option, you’re hoping that these two teams that crack the top 10 in pace generate a high possession count and that you get multiple cracks at a short touchdown, That’s too thin of a profile to rank inside my top 25 at the position, and I’d rather go with a high-volume receiver in my Flex spot if afforded the opportunity.

Rico Dowdle Fantasy Outlook

The four catches for Dowdle last week were nice to see, but that was more the result of a one-sided game script than anything. Elliott hasn’t separated himself in a meaningful way through two weeks (16 carries for 56 yards with his longest rush going for nine yards). While he would still be my pick to lead this backfield in fantasy points because of his scoring equity, his grasp on the leading role is tenuous.

Better times are ahead for everyone on this offense (two non-competitive games thus far), but I’m not sure it will happen this week. Dowdle is roster-worthy, even if he is nowhere close to lineup consideration right now.

Zay Flowers Fantasy Outlook

Over the past four seasons, four receivers have seen 10+ targets in each of the first two weeks of a season as a rookie or in Year 2. That may be a mouthful of a stat, but the point is straightforward – four recent receivers have earned targets out of the gate in an elite way. Those names:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (2022)
• Puka Nacua (2023)
• Chris Olave (2023)
• Flowers (2024)

Nacua is banged up and Olave is about the only Saint not putting up video game numbers at the moment, but we all entered this season with those three ranked well ahead of Flowers, and I’m not so sure that will prove right by the time this season ends.

Flowers held a 40.9% target share in the first half last week against the Raiders (six catches for 83 yards), proving that he is being scripted into the plan. Or, maybe more accurately, he is the plan.

The tight ends in this offense will have their moments, but Flowers doesn’t have to worry about competition from the running back or receiver position – Jackson has been accurate under the tutelage of Todd Monken, and with my confidence in the sustainability of the volume, Flowers is trending toward WR1 status.

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Outlook

Deep pass, hit the breaks, accelerate to the end zone. Lamb’s 65-yard touchdown last week against the Saints was so simple, so smooth, and so effortless. Of course, Dallas went on to get beat down, but their star receiver is rarely quiet for 60 minutes; Week 2 was no exception.

The Ravens coughed up a stat line of 7-103-0 to Rashee Rice in the season opener, and Davante Adams turned 12 targets into 9-110-1 last weekend. I’m not at all worried about this defense returning to the elite form that it showcased last season, though I do think it’s fair to question its ability to take away top options.

Brandin Cooks Fantasy Outlook

Cooks scored 9.1 PPR points in Week 1 when Cleveland brought an all-out blitz and he took advantage. That play counts, but the fact that he has just 9.0 fantasy points outside of that grab this season is concerning for a veteran who showed signs of age last season by posting the lowest yards-per-route-run rate of his strong career.

One play is just that, a single data point. That said, Jalen Tolbert adjusted to a poorly thrown Prescott third-down bomb last week (39-yard gain) with Lamb seeing double coverage. If we continue to see splash plays like that from the 25-year-old, Cooks’ fantasy stock could be in major danger.

I was lower than most on Cooks coming into the season and have him sitting comfortably outside of my top 40 at the position for Week 3 (stashing Tolbert is a move to consider, though I don’t think it’s a high-priority add right now).

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely Fantasy Outlook

What did we learn from Week 2 after Likely’s Week 1 explosion?

Ravens’ TE snap shares:

• Week 1: Andrews (71.6%), Likely (70.3%)
• Week 2: Andrews (65.1%), Likely (49.2%)

So … essentially nothing. I’m viewing Flowers as the clear top target earner in this offense with this duo being second and third in whatever order you want to assign them. Remember last season when we’d routinely get two of Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle produce but rarely all three? That’s what we are looking at in Baltimore, but for a team with a lower pass rate over expectation, thus leaving the door open for two of three to underachieve.

Moving forward, I don’t think either Ravens TE will ever be a bad play or a must-start. That’s not comfortable, but if you roster one, I’d suggest starting him every single week and simply swallowing the variance.

Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook

Dallas’ vice president Stephen Jones said on Monday that Ferguson (MCL sprain) was close to suiting up in Week 2 and is a good bet to return to action this week. Given my lack of confidence in this receiver room, I’m higher than the industry on Ferguson and will be locking him into lineups with confidence whenever he is active in this pass-centric offense.

I was encouraged by two of Ferguson’s five Week 1 targets coming deep downfield, a usage that points to route growth from his strong 2023 campaign. If you can buy low on Dallas’ TE1, I’d pull the trigger.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Start/Sit

• Spread: 49ers -7
• Total: 43
• 49ers implied points: 25
• Rams implied points: 18

Brock Purdy Fantasy Outlook

If you’re wondering why we number crunchers have a problem with Purdy’s profile, look no further than last week in Minnesota:

• 8.9 yards per attempt
• 77.8% completion percentage
• 50% of his targets went to Deebo Samuel Sr. or George Kittle

In theory, those notes should put Purdy inside the top 10 at the position and keep you afloat in your matchup. But with very little rushing upside and no real upside on a per-pass basis (only one of those 36 attempts resulted in a score), that wasn’t the case. He threw an interception and was sacked six times.

A player like Purdy has to run so purely in today’s game to return value, and while he did that for the majority of 2023, it’s still a thin skill set that is difficult to count on.

Purdy’s fantasy points per opportunity are down 41% from a season ago, and even in a good matchup, he was on the outside looking in at QB1 status. With news that Samuel will miss the rest of September at minimum, Purdy has fallen outside of my top 15 at quarterback.

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Outlook

With the injuries piling up, there’s no real justification to rolling the dice on Stafford this week or moving forward. Is there a world where this team treads water, gets their receivers back, and schemes around their offensive line’s shortcomings?

I guess, but betting on that is awfully thin. Stafford’s 27 passes on Sunday, against a bad Cardinals secondary, netted just 216 yards. That’s simply not going to get it done in any matchup, let alone with two tough ones coming up (Chicago next week).

The Rams get the 49ers and the Jets in Weeks 15-16 as you prepare for your league’s Super Bowl. You can’t feel good about starting Stafford in the short- or long-term, so why hold on? There is more than enough talent at the quarterback position. Look elsewhere in single QB leagues of any depth; you can do better than this profile.

Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Outlook

There was very little to be encouraged about when combing through the reports of McCaffrey’s injury last week. He missed the season opener against the Jets and we saw “Achilles” added to the injury sheet before that contest.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Kyle Shanahan called last Thursday’s practice McCaffrey’s “worst day” health-wise. At the very least, the team did decide to put its All-Pro on Injured Reserve on Saturday, buying optimistic fantasy managers a week; had they waited until after Week 2, Sunday’s game in Minnesota would not have counted as one of the four he now has to miss.

That said, this doesn’t sound like a short-term situation, and I’d very much caution against assuming that your first-round pick will be a must-start in Week 7 (at Seattle) when he is eligible to return to the field.

Sadly, there is no course of action to take here. Not yet. If your season begins to slip away, you may have to consider cutting your losses and trading him for pennies on the dollar to save your year. I don’t care if you’re 0-2 thus far with a negative-100-point differential right now — you’re not pulling the plug on McCaffrey just yet.

I’m waiting through September before making any sort of season-altering decision. Having said that, it’s worth noting that the 49ers go on a bye in Week 9, making Nov. 10 potentially a more realistic forecast as to when he can return to your starting lineup.

Jordan Mason Fantasy Outlook

Just like we thought — a single running back would have every single rushing yard at the position for the 49ers and would be on the field for north of 80% of the snaps. Like we thought, said running back would have a 20+ yard tote and a touchdown in every game, driving an offense that is featuring him in a significant way.

The name on the back of the jersey, however, is the part we missed.

Mason has been nothing short of special in the stead of Christian McCaffrey (256 yards through two weeks). Although I have my concerns about his ability to handle 25 touches per game for months at a time, I have zero reservations about Mason’s ability to gash a Rams defense that owns the worst rush EPA in the NFL through two weeks.

The 49ers are a touchdown road favorite, pointing to a positive game script that should land Mason plenty of opportunities for splash plays against a Los Angeles team that is flailing apart at the seams (3.4 points allowed per drive; NFL average: 1.9).

Deebo Samuel Sr. is really the only player on this roster who I worry about in terms of stealing valuable fantasy opportunities. But we learned that he is set to miss time, leaving Mason as a locked-in RB1 in all formats.

Could Mason be a sell-high with time? It could happen as we gather intel on McCaffrey’s recovery, but until then, you’re plugging in Mason with as much confidence as any player on your roster.

Kyren Williams Fantasy Outlook

One of the big stories from last season has bailed you out with a touchdown in both games this season, but he’s otherwise been a disaster. Twice last season Williams went through an entire game without a touch gaining more than 10 yards. He’s already matched that total this season, and there’s no real reason to see that changing anytime soon.

Yards per carry before contact:

• 2023: 1.68
• Week 1: 0.44
• Week 2: -0.08

Simply put, Williams has zero chance to succeed in this spot, no matter how much you like him. The Rams are going to continue to pound him, and the 49ers were gashed by Ty Chandler in their upset loss to the Vikings last week (10 carries for 82 yards). That’s enough to justify starting Los Angeles’ bell cow, but the expectations very much need to be managed, and we aren’t far from having to have a serious conversation.

Deebo Samuel Sr. Fantasy Outlook

News surfaced this week that a calf injury will cost Samuel some time, something that savvy fantasy managers had considered prior to drafting him this summer (multiple missed games in three of his past four seasons, and this year will make it four of five).

You’re going to have to burn a roster spot here to hold if you don’t have an IR slot available. I was down on Samuel coming into the season, but McCaffrey’s injury changed everything.

When Samuel is healthy and CMC is out, he will be locked into my top 15 at the position — you’re making alternative plans for the next few weeks, but you have no choice other than sitting on Samuel as he recovers.

Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy Outlook

We wondered all off-season if Aiyuk would excel as a bonafide WR1 under the assumption that he would dealt, and now we’re getting the chance to see that play out. On the plus side, he’s getting the chance to excel in an efficient offense as opposed to being traded into a situation without much hope (à la Diontae Johnson).

Even with a slow start to 2024 (six catches on 10 targets for 71 yards and zero touchdowns), Aiyuk remains firmly in the must-start tier at the position. Purdy has yet to rediscover his form from last season, though he’s still averaging 8.5 yards per pass and will be directing more of his throws the way of his clear-cut WR1.

Jameson Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. have both broken out against this Rams secondary this season, and Aiyuk could make it 3-for-3.

Jauan Jennings Fantasy Outlook

Despite injuries happening left and right around him, Jennings’ role has remained stable (8.5 expected PPR points in Week 1 and 8.4 last week). I’d expect more of the same on Sunday but with more downside than upside due to the projected game script.

If you want a punt play in the late window for your DFS contest, Jennings is a live option. Outside of that, he’s nothing more than optional lineup depth in season-long formats.

Cooper Kupp Fantasy Outlook

The 31-year-old was expected to see a 2021 level target share after Puka Nacua was placed on IR, but Kupp will now miss “extended time” due to an ankle injury. This is brutal news for fantasy managers who thought they had tremendous value, but this Rams offense is now one to target when streaming D/STs more than anything.

Kupp missed five games last season and eight in 2022. Without a definitive timeline, he needs to remain rostered in all formats. However, reporting out of Los Angeles doesn’t sound good, which could put him on the chopping block over the next month.

The Rams could enter their bye with a 0-5 record, and that would likely dictate how aggressive the team is with both of its star receivers.

Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington, and Tutu Atwell Fantasy Outlook

If any of these receivers are the answer to what you’re asking … well, you’re asking the wrong question.

The Rams’ offensive line is struggling to keep defenders in front of them, and if they can’t extend drives, chasing an unknown and underwhelming target hierarchy is a fool’s errand.

Week 2 routes at Arizona:

• Robinson: 28
• Johnson: 25
• Whittington: 13
• Atwell: 10

Robinson led the group in field time and aDOT, making him my highest-ranked of this quartet for the week — a title someone has to hold, that’s just how rankings work.

George Kittle Fantasy Outlook

The best ability is availability, and alongside Aiyuk, Kittle has passed that test up to this point. He has caught 84.6% of his targets, showcasing efficiency that we haven’t seen him sustain with Purdy under center in seasons past.

San Francisco’s reception hierarchy, 2024:

• Kittle + Samuel: 24
• All other 49ers: 23

Kittle played 91.4% of the snaps in San Francisco’s lone win this season, and I’d expect him to be fully unleashed as an offensive weapon in the short term. He’s locked into top-five status at the position for me until Samuel returns to action, with the thought being that we might finally get the consistency we’ve yearned for from him.

Colby Parkinson Fantasy Outlook

Bad teams need love too! This is the mash-unit game of the week, and Parkinson is the greatest beneficiary. The former fourth-round pick hasn’t developed into a reliable fantasy option up to this point in his career, but he’s been on the field for over 80% of the snaps in both games this season, which is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Opponents have completed seven of 10 passes in the red zone against the 49ers, and as you chase a score from a big pass catcher in a game as a significant underdog, Parkinson checks all the boxes you’re looking for when searching the waiver wire for a bail-out option.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Start/Sit

• Spread: Lions -2.5
• Total: 52.5
• Lions implied points: 27.5
• Cardinals implied points: 25

Jared Goff Fantasy Outlook

The Lions fully committed to the passing game last week (six more completions against the Bucs than he had attempted in the Week 1 overtime victory), and I think we could see something similar in a potential shootout this week.

No team has blitzed at a lower rate since the beginning of last season than the Cardinals, a defensive strategy that isn’t likely to hold up against a Lions offense that is stretching the field at a much more effective rate than they did last season.

I have Goff penciled in as my QB8 and have no reservations about starting him, even if the Week 2 performance was less than inspiring.

Kyler Murray Fantasy Outlook

Mr. Perfect has completed 73.1% of his passes this season, and if you put a fantasy manager into a lab, Murray’s profile is what you’d likely get returned to you.

Not only does he have 5+ carries in both games, and not only does he have a 25+ yard rush in both games, but he’s also thrown half of his passes to his two elite pass catchers who figure to only get better with time.

Aidan Hutchinson is a threat to ruin any game in which he plays, but if he pressures Murray and forces him to relocate, that might be the best-case scenario. We aren’t going to get back-to-back perfect passer ratings, but with this total being what it is, I think those with Murray on their roster will be more than satisfied with the returns.

He’s my QB6 this week, and I might not be high enough.

Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Outlook

You’re starting Gibbs, and just about everyone in this game, without a second thought. The explosive back has cleared seven PPR fantasy points as a pass catcher in both games this season, a trend I anticipate continuing through this game.

The Bucs have a strong run defense – Gibbs gashed them for 84 yards on 13 carries last week. He’s a strong RB1 this week and more often than not as we move forward.

David Montgomery Fantasy Outlook

Your confidence in Montgomery, week to week, will rely some on how you think the game plays out. If Detroit is playing with a lead this week, their bruising back is going to finish as a top-15 option. If not, a finish outside of the top 25 is in play.

My ranking for him (RB22) falls in the middle. He bailed you out with a touchdown last week, something I worry has the potential to not happen this time around. The Cardinals have tackled opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage a league-high nine times this season, and if they elect to attack the box when Montgomery is in the game like Tampa Bay did last week (11 carries for 35 yards), the floor worries me.

You’re playing him, but you need to at least be aware of the risk involved. He’s a DFS fade for me unless you’re trying to be different in what promises to be the most popular game of the main slate.

James Conner Fantasy Outlook

I’ll believe he’s slowing down when I see it and not a moment earlier. Conner was among the most impressive advanced analytic RBs a season ago and has opened 2024 with 19+ touches and a score in both games. Do I worry that the Lions have improved their run defense (sixth-fewest yards per carry after contact allowed to running backs)?

A little, but not nearly enough to matter. Conner has been a top-eight running back in both games this season, and I have him sitting as my RB13. I’ll be watching his involvement in the passing game – he was heavily involved in Week 1 with Marvin Harrison Jr. struggling and hardly used last week. If we can split the difference on a weekly basis, he’s again going to produce nice results for his ADP.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Outlook

It was easy to panic after Week 1’s dud performance (three catches for 13 yards) as Jameson Williams dominated. The thought was never that JaMo would assume the WR1 role in this offense, but it was fair to question how his continued development would impact St. Brown’s status as one of the highest floor options in our game.

Relax, everything is going to be just fine. St. Brown soaked up 19 targets in the Week 2 loss against the Bucs, and while the volume isn’t going to be at that level on a consistent basis, he remains the most reliable option on what we think is a top-five offense in the league.

There’s no reason to worry here — St. Brown is positioned to pay off his preseason price tag and then some.

Jameson Williams Fantasy Outlook

Fantasy’s WR7 through two weeks projects favorably moving forward. That might not sound like a ground-breaking analysis, and it’s not. That said, any time we see an explosive receiver like this produce in consecutive weeks, the “sell high” narrative is inevitable.

Don’t fall into that temptation. I beg of you, don’t do it.

The splash plays are the highlight of Williams’ profile, and that’s no secret. The Goff bombs in weatherproof games are going to continue to be there, and when they hit, we’re looking at a game-breaker. When they don’t? I’m still not worried.

Williams has as many end-zone targets this season as last, and he’s been handed the ball in both games this season. He got tangled up in coverage early in Week 2 and Goff threw a pick, but instead of looking elsewhere on the coming drives, Detroit’s veteran QB showed confidence in his emerging burner.

I’d be more likely to buy high than try to move on from Williams — this is just the beginning.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Outlook

After a dud debut, Harrison flashed last week, highlighted by a pair of 20+ yard first-quarter touchdowns. He’s the first player with two such grabs in a first quarter since Tyreek Hill (Week 12, 2020 at Bucs).

Maybe that was me overextending to get the rookie’s name in the same sentence as one of the very best in our game, but that’s the type of profile we’re looking at if Murray is truly going to be an MVP candidate.

Amari Cooper was also the No. 4 overall pick, like Harrison, and he might prove to be the Year 1 template. In his debut, Cooper averaged just 5.2 yards per target (better than MHJ, but still underwhelming based on the lofty expectations that come with that draft investment). He followed it up with a 7-109-1 stat line the next week, the first of three straight games with over 14.5 fantasy points.

Harrison is exactly who we thought he was. He earned a target on one-third of his routes last week, and there is plenty of room for growth (15.5% slot participation). Buckle up!

Michael Wilson Fantasy Outlook

He scored on the first drive of the season and has largely done nothing since (2-31-0 against the Rams on Sunday).

We, myself included, get seduced by the Texans and Bears, two offenses that have three viable pieces that we believe can return value in any given week. The truth of the matter is that not all offenses are built like that, especially when the QB is capable of taking over drives on the ground.

I’m not giving up on Wilson if I don’t have to, but my stubbornness when it comes to holding onto him is fading and may be completely gone by the time bye weeks factor into our weekly decision-making.

Sam LaPorta Fantasy Outlook

Friends don’t let friends sell LaPorta right now. That’s not to say that you can’t be interested in trading him after an underwhelming start; this is simply a game of timing, and this isn’t the time.

• 2023, per game: 5.1 catches for 52.3 yards and 0.6 TDs
• 2024, total: six catches for 58 yards and zero TDs

LaPorta is coming off a game in which he posted a 5.7% target share despite being on the field for 86.7% of the snaps. He’s not Cade Otton, but that’s a Cardio Cade stat line if I’ve ever seen one.

It’s plenty fair to be concerned as the receiver position in Detroit is certainly going to eat up targets in this offense that also has to field a pair of running backs, but moving on now is malpractice. Not only are you selling low, but you’re also selling at a time when the position as a whole is struggling. No tight end is bulletproof, it just so happens that LaPorta’s struggles have come early.

Now, more than ever, I’m comfortable blindly betting on offensive firepower and hoping that the tight end production follows. That’s why I’m holding my Dalton Kincaid stock. That’s why I’m holding a banged-up Jake Ferguson. That’s why I still have a top tier at the position that includes …

Trey McBride Fantasy Outlook

Week 2 wasn’t a huge game, but a 100% catch rate along with a 21-yard reception gave us glimpses of what we thought this Arizona offense could be in a perfect scenario.

LaPorta’s value took off last season alongside a star WR1 who was the top priority of every defense, and that is how I think McBride produces a top-three final stat line at the position this season.

We saw McBride used in a more chain-moving way last week (5.2 aDOT), with Harrison exploding down the field after posting an 8.4 aDOT in Week 2. His versatility is rare and, over time, will win out more often than not.

There may be some bumps in the road. Not every game is going to feature perfection from Murray, but I expect McBride to be a top producer at the position with regularity and one who could end this season in style like he did last year.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Start/Sit

• Spread: Chiefs -3.5
• Total: 46.5
• Chiefs implied points: 25
• Falcons implied points: 21.5

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook

I understand that Mahomes has as many interceptions as touchdown tosses in both games this season and now in six of his past seven regular season games. I’m also well aware that the Falcons have allowed a touchdown on just 10.5% of their drives this season (fifth-best rate).

I’m not worried. The pass rate over expectation figures to spike with Isiah Pacheco sidelined, and that is really all I need to pen Mahomes into my top five at the position.

Add in the fact that he gets to play on a fast track against a team on short rest and you’ve got yourself a great situation to get a vintage Mahomes effort.

Kirk Cousins Fantasy Outlook

We will see if the game-winning drive against the Eagles on Monday unlocks this offense, something that Cousins hinted at following the contest.

I think it very well could, but that doesn’t mean that a pocket-locked Cousins is worth our while. If Philadelphia closes down that game, Cousins fails to produce top-15 numbers, and no one is tempted to play him this week.

Don’t be a prisoner of the moment. Cousins is a fringe top-20 QB this week. If you want to rank him ahead of Matthew Stafford and/or Trevor Lawrence, be my guest, but getting him into the top 15 requires more number-bending than I am comfortable doing.

I was encouraged by Monday night, but Cousins isn’t yet a must-roster player in one-QB leagues.

Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Outlook

The star back will be sidelined through October with a fibula injury, adding to the complications for an offense that made a point of it to add skill-player depth this summer.

Pacheco’s lead role in a high-powered offense means he should remain rostered if at all possible — finding his replacement requires a little creativity.

Carson Steele, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Samaje Perine, and Kareem Hunt Fantasy Outlook

Kansas City brought in old friend Kareem Hunt for a visit on Tuesday, further muddying the waters.

Steele (undrafted rookie out of UCLA) pretty clearly has the attention of this coaching staff, as he has gotten valuable work through the first two weeks, but expecting him to handle stepping into Pacheco’s voluminous role is overly optimistic.

Perine spent much of this summer with the Broncos, but it stands to reason that, with time, he’ll carve out a niche in this offense due to his reliability on third down. Edwards-Helaire is on injured reserve and will miss at least two more games, though his NFL experience at least makes him worthy of a stash now if he was cut loose.

Of course, you know what you’re getting with CEH if you go down that road. Of the 64 qualified RBs since 2022, he ranks 62nd in percentage of carries that have gained 10+ yards (6.4%, ahead of only AJ Dillon and Ezekiel Elliott).

And then there is Hunt, a 29-year-old coming off of a season in which he averaged just 3.0 yards per carry for the Browns. Should he sign with Kansas City, his familiarity with the system makes him a speculative add. However, I’d guess that, in the short term, he’d be more of a drain on the options already in place than a true threat to have fantasy value himself.

The moral of the story — we have several moving pieces that are close to a valuable role, but not of whom project favorably should they earn it. There’s been a lot of carnage at the Flex positions throughout the league up to this point, which makes all of these RBs worthy of your attention, even if the projectable ceilings aren’t anywhere close to the value that Pacheco was as the RB1 in K.C.’s offense.

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Outlook

Some players just pop off the screen, and Robinson is certainly one of them. It’s a treat to watch him in space, and I expect we see more of that as this offensive unit gels.

He carried the rock 14 times for 97 yards against the Eagles, pulling in four of five targets (25 yards) for good measure. He had a few chances to score and couldn’t get across the line, something that I expect to correct itself with time.

Robinson is deserving of the Tier 1 price tag you paid this summer, and if the Falcons are going to keep this hype, it’s because he has done something special.

Tyler Allgeier Fantasy Outlook

Allgeier got 10 touches against the Eagles on Monday, but part of that was the result of being on the field when Atlanta got into a situation where they didn’t want Philadelphia to sub.

I expect that to be something of a high-water mark moving forward, and that’s going to make stand-alone value almost impossible. I like Allgeier as one of the top five handcuff options in the league, and that demands he be rostered in all formats, but expecting him to work his way into your Flex decisions while Robinson is healthy is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.

Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook

I mentioned loving what I saw from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Rice is a similar case, but on steroids given his proven talent and the presence of No. 15 under center.

Mahomes found Rice streaking down the left sideline for a 44-yard touchdown against the Bengals, a moment that had me thinking we could be looking at a top-five receiver in dynasty formats. I’ll leave that debate for another day, but the fact that the same receiver can play two different roles in as many weeks, it’s impossible to be too high on his upside.

• Week 1: 47.4% in the slot, 5.3 aDOT, 37.5% target share
• Week 2: 35.4% in the slot, 7.5 aDOT, 23.1% target share

Kansas City brought in Hollywood Brown to satisfy a versatile role alongside Rice and Xavier Worthy. Kansas City wanted a pounding back in Isiah Pacheco to keep defenses honest.

Both are done for the foreseeable future, and that has me giddy over how Andy Reid is going to use Rice, a weapon that I truly believe can be even better than what we’ve seen up to this point.

You stole him at your draft and you now have a chance to compete at a high level; it’s up to you to take advantage.

Xavier Worthy Fantasy Outlook

Adam Schefter reported last Saturday that Hollywood Brown is expected to miss the entire regular season, a development that opens the door for fantasy managers to profit in a major way with their Worthy investment.

Now, it’s important to remember that not all “profits” look the same. Worthy has earned just seven targets on 48 routes this season. I don’t care. In fact, I’m encouraged.

The reps are all I want in the first half of the season, and with Brown out, Worthy is assured the ability to learn on the fly. The Falcons’ defense has been stout this season and looked good on Monday night, but if A.J. Terrell Jr. is on Rice duty, we could get single coverage situations on a fast track for the fastest player ever to lace ’em up.

In the worst-case scenario, your Worthy stock takes time to mature and gives you elite upside during your playoffs. That’s not a bad outcome at all, and I’m expecting a handful of spike weeks between now and then. He’s flirting with my top 25 this week, grading ahead of more established assets like Jaylen Waddle and Amari Cooper.

I’ll take it one step further: Worthy is my WR2 in this game.

Drake London Fantasy Outlook

Did any 65-second stretch of Week 2 impact our view of an offense more than Atlanta’s final real drive of their upset of the Eagles on Monday night?

It was clean. It was efficient. It was everything we didn’t see in Week 1 from this Cousins-led offense. London scored the game-winning touchdown on an ankle-breaking route in the end zone, giving us a glimpse of the potential in his prospect profile.

The fantasy upside isn’t as high as someone like a Garrett Wilson (who is also the lead target in an offense with improved QB play), but London is a fantasy starter without much question.

London’s aDOT is down 32.5% from last season, a ceiling-lowering development if sustained but a role that should lock in his weekly floor to rank among the best 20 at the position.

Zay Flowers earned 10 targets against the Chiefs in Week 1 and that is the type of involvement I’m expecting from London under the bright lights.

Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook

The future Hall of Famer has seven targets (four catches for 39 yards and zero touchdowns) this season despite being on the field for at least 88% of the snaps in both games this season (over 84.2% of the snaps just three times last regular season). Is it time to panic?

It’s not because, with each passing week, the 2024 Chiefs are looking more like the 2023 team that had a limited number of reliable skill players on the field. I feel good about Kelce not being the top-scoring tight end moving forward, but this team no longer has the luxury of truly managing the veteran’s reps, and that has me penciling a production floor that slots him in around TE5 moving forward.

Kyle Pitts Fantasy Outlook

Much like London, Pitts’ aDOT has tanked early in the Cousins era (6.3 this season, down from 12.0 a year ago), but he is already halfway to his end-zone target count from last season and showed some growth last week (15.4% target share, up from 10.7% in Week 1).

There was speculation this offseason that Pitts had a path to the overall TE1 honor this year. I don’t think that outcome is in play if he is going to see the majority of his targets come around the line of scrimmage, but I do think this will be the most consistent season of his career to date, and that holds tremendous value at this position.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills Start/Sit

• Spread: Bills -5
• Total: 45.5
• Jaguars implied points: 19.8
• Bills implied points: 25.3

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook

There have been some sparks from Lawrence, but with just 26 completions (one touchdown) through two games, there’s no reason to be looking this far down the rankings board against a strong Bills defense that has had an extra long week to prepare after kicking off Week 2 on Thursday night.

Lawrence’s arm talent can give us one if not two valuable pass catchers on a weekly basis, but that doesn’t mean he himself deserves a look.

Josh Allen Fantasy Outlook

Allen has thrown just 42 passes through two weeks, not giving fantasy managers the volume through the air that they’d love to have as a result of Buffalo largely operating from a position of power to open the season.

That’ll change with time. The 73.8% completion percentage is encouraging considering the change in receivers at his disposal, and the lack of rushing production on Thursday night in Miami (two yards) isn’t here to stay. Allen is deserving of an elite fantasy grade given his versatility, and if James Cook is truly ready to level up, I think it only helps the value of his QB.

No matter how good Cook proves to be, Allen will remain the betting favorite to get the valuable rush attempts as a part of this Joe Brady offense, stabilizing his value. As long as he is getting those attempts, he’s a Tier 1 option. Cook has turned four targets into 49 yards and a touchdown this season – if he proves to be a true threat in that regard, Allen’s floor remains elite without much question at all.

Travis Etienne Jr. Fantasy Outlook

It hasn’t been a work of art, but Etienne is one of just four players with a rushing touchdown and 3+ targets in both games this year (Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, and Kyren Williams being the others). We saw him give away work to Tank Bigsby during the season opener, but his backup was injured (shoulder) on a kick return last week and his status is in question after he put in a limited effort on Thursday.

We’ve seen Etienne showcase versatility over the course of his first two seasons, and I think he’s going to need it in this spot. Look for him to post solid RB2 numbers, potentially thriving in the traditional ground game against a Bills team that rarely packs the line of scrimmage.

James Cook Fantasy Outlook

I’m old enough to remember when we thought Cook wasn’t a reliable fantasy option because he couldn’t score touchdowns.

Oh wait, that was a week ago. In Week 1, he cleared 100 scrimmage yards and still wasn’t a top-20 producer at the position. On Thursday night, he ran for a pair of touchdowns (matching his most in a season for his career) and took a fourth-down pass to the house as a part of the second-best game of his career (28.5 PPR points).

Wheels up! The touchdowns finally piled up, but this is more the highlighting moment of a positive trend than it is some crazy performance. Cook now has multiple red-zone touches in six straight games and in nine of his past 10 (nine multi-red-zone-touch games in first 25 career games).

I’m not reading too far into his one-yard touchdown against the Dolphins, nor am I projecting him for a score per week moving forward, but Cook is trending in a strong enough direction to be considered a non-liability on the TD front.

It’s simple: We are looking at a versatile option in an offense we trust. We can debate Cook’s exact spot in the ranks, especially against a defense that has talent, but you’re starting him without much thought and loving the value you got in the third round this summer.

Ray Davis Fantasy Outlook

The thought process in stashing Davis this summer was sound – we weren’t sold on Cook as a threat inside the 10-yard line, and with an offseason to gameplan, maybe Brady would look to scheme his QB away from contact.

Nope and nope.

Davis carried nine times on Thursday night, but six came in the fourth quarter with the outcome no longer in doubt. You drafted him with the hope that he could hold a goal-line role, and maybe, even with everyone healthy, bail you out with a score if you were pressed in a tough spot due to injuries/bye weeks.

I’d say that dream is a thing of the past. If you have the space for a pure handcuff in a strong offense, Davis should remain rostered, but the likelihood of having that luxury is going to lessen as the season progresses. Hold tight for now, but don’t get too attached.

Christian Kirk Fantasy Outlook

It’s been a brutal start for Kirk (two catches on seven targets for 29 yards, negative points last week against the Browns for you non-PPR players out there), but the profile doesn’t look too dissimilar from what we’ve seen in the past.

• 2023: 66.5% slot usage and 11.7 expected PPR fantasy points per game
• 2024: 74.7% slot usage and 11.1 expected PPR fantasy points per game

I expect a return to basics in this spot against a Bills team that rarely blitzes. Kirk’s few targets have come deep downfield (aDOT: 17.7), something that Buffalo aims to take away (just ask those who started Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 1).

Kirk’s splits, 2023:

• Yards per route run when the defense blitzes: 1.81
• Yards per route run when the defense doesn’t blitz: 2.15

That may not seem like a huge difference, but it works opposite the trend of the other Jaguars receivers last year – Brian Thomas Jr. gives this offense a different look, but still. I’m sticking it out with Kirk and plugging him in over struggling bigger names like Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper.

Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Thomas’ first two targets of his career totaled six air yards – his next six have come 125 yards downfield. He’s not a one-trick pony, but it is pretty clear that the Jags have identified where their star rookie holds the most value.

I love their commitment to giving him chances, I just don’t love it this week. The Bills have allowed opponents to complete just two of 17 deep passes this season after being the second-most vulnerable downfield defense last season in terms of completion percentage (53.8%; NFL average: 43.4%). Like the rest of the NFL, Buffalo is encouraging you to beat them via paper cuts, and that isn’t the path for Thomas to crack your weekly lineup.

I’ll have Thomas over Kirk most weeks, but that’s not the case here. The kid is still an upside Flex play, but one that carries a wide range of outcomes that has me ranking him behind the emerging Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook

Efficiency can be difficult to sustain, but it might be possible that Shakir is an exception. He has hauled in all eight of his targets this season, putting his career rate at a cartoonish 88.7%. For reference, Gabe Davis had two fewer catches on 28 more targets as a member of the Bills.

If I have to pick a receiver in Buffalo to approach the PPR Flex conversation, it remains Shakir. He’s not there yet, but could this be a breakout performance? The Jaguars blitz at an above-average rate, and as a result, own one of the 10 lowest opponent average depths of target since the beginning of last season.

Shakir isn’t ranked as a starter for me, but he has my attention and I’ll be invested as his prop markets become available.

Keon Coleman Fantasy Outlook

The rookie has led the Buffalo receiver room in routes run in both games this season, and while the numbers haven’t been there (4-51-0 after being shut out against the Dolphins), being on the field next to Allen is enough to keep him on rosters.

The odds of Coleman never being considered a starter for you are higher than him assuming a Flex role on a consistent basis, but I want my roster depth tethered to talent and that is the situation here.

Curtis Samuel Fantasy Outlook

The preseason optimism around Samuel was rooted in the idea that Joe Brady orchestrated his 2020 breakout season and that the duo could recreate that magic in a more talented offensive room.

Well, as it turns out, a veteran receiver who missed time late in camp (turf toe) playing in an offense with younger options that do similar things, isn’t the safest of best. Through two weeks, 75% of Samuel’s routes have come in the slot – that’s where he is at his best, but it’s also the role he is most likely to surrender to Shakir.

At best, Samuel is a fringe stash that you’re holding simply because there is nothing better on the waiver wire. That might well be the case, but I’d be open to the idea of cutting ties at the drop of a hat should an upside become available.

Evan Engram Fantasy Outlook

After a disappointing opener against the Dolphins (five yards on four targets), Engram was a late scratch last week due to a hamstring injury suffered during warmups — not exactly a banner start for a tight end coming off of the second-best season in the history of the position in terms of reception count.

Assuming he clears all health hurdles this week and through warmups, I think you’re fine to plug in Engram as you normally would. He displayed an elite connection with Lawrence a season ago, and with the Bills ranking ninth in zone rate (both this season and since the beginning of last), a nice PPR afternoon seems almost inevitable with the Jaguars’ TE serving as a safety valve.

It’s also important to remember that beggars can’t be choosers at the tight end position right now.

We are two weeks into the #FantasyFootball season

21 tight ends have a top-12 PPR finish

Twenty. One.

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 17, 2024

Engram has a stable role in an offense that we project to get above-average quarterback play on a consistent basis. In 2024, that locks him into lineups whenever he’s active.

Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Outlook

It’s early, but the Bills have scored 65 points through two weeks and Kincaid managers have been left out in the cold. His current stat line (5-44-0) reads more like a down single-game performance than it does eight quarters of action, but here we are.

Be patient, the time will come. Kincaid was targeted with Allen’s first two passes on Thursday night and that’s a good sign when it comes to getting an idea of what game plan Joe Brady enters the contest with.

For me, the interesting development, up to this point, isn’t the lack of production, it’s the opportunities that have been funneled his way. Kincaid has only seen six targets, so I’d caution against making any definitive claims, but a negative-1.2-yard aDOT is certainly noteworthy (2023: 5.9 yards).

Is this the result of no Diggs/Davis and the desire to design highly efficient targets for the player who, for my money, should be their top target earner? Is this a way to get Allen into a rhythm before stretching the field later, should the game script require it? Does this coaching staff view Kincaid as more of a YAC option than a developed route runner?

There’s a lot to learn over the next month or so when it comes to the role of the tight end position in this offense, but for now, I’m holding firm. Kincaid isn’t really at risk of losing reps at the position, and no receiver has established himself enough to make me pivot off of my preseason priors around the value of the Year 2 TE in this offense.

And yes, I’ll be betting his “over” 4.5 catches for a third straight week as I try to get ahead of the breakout both in the fantasy and betting markets.

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals Start/Sit

• Spread: Bengals -7.5
• Total: 48.5
• Commanders implied points: 20.5
• Bengals implied points: 28

Jayden Daniels Fantasy Outlook

You’re welcome to nitpick Daniels’ game based on NFL expectations all you want, but I’m happy to take him to the bank for fantasy purposes. The rushing is something we knew would translate, but I’m encouraged by Washington’s scheming around him.

By no means is this a loaded offense and that often puts rookie QBs in a tough spot. Heck, Caleb Williams is struggling, and we talked all summer about him walking into the greatest supporting cast ever for a rookie. The Commanders have implemented a conservative game plan when it comes to airing the ball out, and Daniels is executing.

He’s completed over 70% of his passes with 10+ runs in both games, making him one of four quarterbacks to post a streak like that since 2000 (minimum 20 pass attempts). The others included fantasy royalty like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Cam Newton.

Daniels is a ways from being considered in the same stratosphere as that trio, but there is no denying that how he plays and how our game is scored is a perfect fit. He, again, sits inside my top 10 at the position, and I’d play him over a proven option in his opposing number.

Joe Burrow Fantasy Outlook

Things have to get better, right?

Burrow showed some form last week at Kansas City (23-for-36 for 258 yards and a pair of touchdowns), but we’ve yet to see his true upside this season. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup to get right and get his Bengals into the win column, but he has come up a little short in these situations of late.

In his last nine games as a favorite, Burrow has averaged just 14.1 fantasy points per game, a number that would have checked in as QB23 on a per-game basis last season. He’s my QB10 this week, and if you have him, you’re starting him. The question for me is not if he can produce in this game but what can we expect from him after two tough matchups and one easy one.

Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Simply put, this isn’t a committee situation. Robinson scored and caught three passes in Week 1 and then ran all over the Giants last week (133 yards on 17 carries), proving himself as a game-script independent option.

He’s going to need to produce in a variety of game settings as a part of a Washington team with little win equity, but this offense is at least moving the ball. Sure, they went 0-for-6 in the red zone last week, but the fact that only the Eagles and Lions have frequented their opponents’ 20-yard line more often than the Commanders is impressive.

Robinson is my RB15 this week, a range where I’ll likely have him ranked on a consistent basis.

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Outlook

The one-time fantasy god has taken a pretty clear backseat to Robinson through two weeks, but there are some signals that point to Ekeler remaining roster-worthy despite totaling just 17 touches and zero touchdowns up to this point.

On the bright side, Ekeler has caught all seven of his targets and has an explosive reception (20+ yards) in both games of the Daniels era. He was on the field for just 28.6% of red-zone snaps in the season opener, a rate that rose to 44.4% against the Giants.

This offense is going to be clunky as they look to maximize Daniels, and the process requires us to stay patient with that unknown.

Of course, Ekeler has yet to clear a 50% snap share and shouldn’t be considered a true threat to assume the lead role in Washington’s offense. His days as a locked-in asset are long gone, though, outright dismissing isn’t wise either.

Zack Moss Fantasy Outlook

For a player on a 0-2 team without 110 scrimmage yards this season, I’m oddly optimistic about Moss’ outlook moving forward. He has tripled the the carry count of Chase Brown in both games this season and earned four targets in the season-opening loss to the Patriots.

Moss’ snap share:

• Week 1: 64.6%
• Week 2: 82%

With the Commanders on the slate to round out this week and a date with the Panthers next Sunday, your opportunity to invest in Moss is likely running short. He’s an average RB2 for me who I’m playing over a featured back in a similarly positive matchup like Jerome Ford.

Chase Brown Fantasy Outlook

We entered the season with the knowledge that Moss would likely handle the valuable fantasy role, but that Brown would have a path not only to touches but potentially lead this backfield in total opportunities.

Two weeks in, it feels fair to punt on that idea. Brown has seven carries on his 2024 résumé and wasn’t targeted a single time in the last-second loss to the Chiefs.

If you have the roster space to hold, I would, simply because the waiver wire options are limited, but there’s no reason to spin Brown’s profile in an optimistic manner based on what we’ve seen thus far.

Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook

Yikes. The idea of drafting McLaurin this summer was that he was the alpha receiver in an offense set to improve in a significant way. But maybe we were blinded by Daniels’ upside and overlooked the learning curve in the process.

Through two weeks, McLaurin has just eight grabs for 39 yards. The average depth of targets and target share are statistics that are typically inversely correlated, but both are trending toward a career low for Washington’s WR1. The box scores up to this point are very discouraging, but let’s not lose track of the fact that McLaurin still has as many catches as any of his teammates have targets and that this offense is going to develop with time.

Could some of that development from Daniels take place this week? Cincinnati owns the second-lowest blitz rate this season, potentially putting the rookie in a spot to execute the passing-game plan as opposed to defaulting to his athleticism to save the day.

I want to see it before committing to McLaurin as a top-25 option for the position, but he’s swimming in those waters for me. I have him ranked as a viable Flex option in a similar vein as Christian Kirk and Stefon Diggs.

Ja’Marr Chase Fantasy Outlook

There is a fine line between worrying and making actionable changes. I remain stubborn that we are not at the latter with Chase, but we are certainly at the former. Over his last three starts with Burrow, Chase has turned 11 catches into just 21.7 fantasy points. Here are his numbers with Burrow throwing the ball in those three games compared to his statistical profile beforehand:

Last three games with Burrow:

• Receptions per route: 12.9%
• PPR fantasy points per target: 1.45
• Target share: 17.6%
• Average depth of target: 6.9 yards

Career previously with Burrow:

• Receptions per route: 16.7%
• PPR fantasy points per target: 2.04
• Target share: 25.2%
• Average depth of target: 11.1 yards

In theory, this is a buy-low opportunity. Burrow and Tee Higgins will be healthier with time, and that should increase Chase’s metrics across the board. “Theories,” however, don’t put fantasy points on the board – matchups against the Commanders do.

This is a hinge spot of sorts. A monster game and we will forgive him for the recent struggles and lock him in as a WR1 moving forward. Another underwhelming showing and the alarm will officially sound.

Tee Higgins Fantasy Outlook

We got an optimistic update in the middle of last week from Zac Taylor, as the head coach mentioned that Higgins (hamstring) was making progress. That matches up with the Bengals refusing to rule him out too far in advance in either of the first two games this season.

He’s getting close, which puts us as fantasy managers in a very interesting spot.

First is the scheduling component. Much like the A.J. Brown situation of Week 2, a banged-up MNF receiver is a pain to deal with because you have to factor in a zero-point floor.

That’s where the similarities end.

Brown is a bonafide WR1 and was involved in a game where adding a safety blanket wasn’t much of an option (maybe Darnell Mooney was available in your league, if not, it was likely Jahan Dotson on your radar). Higgins isn’t Brown, and I like the profile of the secondary options (pick a Commanders pass catcher not named McLaurin, and the Bengals have some options, including Mike Gesicki) more than what was available last week for this spot.

So you plug in Higgins, add a backup, and be on your way, right? The matchup is sublime, and we’ve seen him put up big numbers with Burrow under center.

You haven’t played fantasy sports long enough if you think it’s that easy.

This is Higgins’ fifth season since coming out of Clemson. Here are his cumulative numbers from the first game he’s played in those first four seasons:

• PPR fantasy points: 27.0 (6.8 per game)
• Receptions: nine
• Targets: 21 (42.9% catch rate)
• Receptions per route: 7.6%

That looks bad, and it doesn’t get any better when I provide context.

Tutu Atwell, 2023:

• PPR fantasy PPG: 7.0
• Catch rate: 58.2%
• Receptions per route: 9.7%

I have Higgins ranked as a player that I’m waiting on, but I wouldn’t blame you for treading lightly. If you’re fully committed to the Sunday routine of locking in for 11 straight hours, you have a slightly different option.

Why not pencil him in, roster a backup option, and see where your matchup stands as the first wave of games come to a close? With five games in the second window, the odds are decent that you have a player on your bench that is better than your Higgins MNF insurance — read and react.

Rashod Bateman and Michael Wilson play later. The Rams are filling the Puka Nacua role for at least another three games, so there’s opportunities up for grabs there. Heck, take it a step further and stash your favorite for the WR3 role in Kansas City (Sunday Night Football).

This strategy allows you to make a more informed decision. If you’re trailing, do options like this offer a higher ceiling than your MNF plan? What about a floor if you’re leading and worried about Hggins’ role/production?

This situation is a pain, but you have options at your disposal, and as the week goes on, I’m happy to offer my insights on your specific situation @KyleSoppePFN on X.

Mike Gesicki Fantasy Outlook

It’s easy to assume that Burrow is at less than full strength, and while there are plenty of players suffering as a result, the tight end position is one that thrived last week and could continue to do so.

As a position ground, Cincinnati tight ends caught 14 of 16 targets in Kansas City last week with Gesicki (7-91-0) leading the way. The fact that he’s a member of a three-man rotation and, thus, saw his snap rate spike in a big way up to 47.5% (Week 1: 35.4%) keeps him off of the must-roster tier at the position. But given how little most offenses are currently getting from their tight ends, he’s worth a flier if you’re streaming.

Higgins’ return figures to eat into the TE target share as a whole, but I’m of the belief that Gesicki will remain the featured option at the position and, thus, be able to survive the return of the star receiver.

New England Patriots at New York Jets Start/Sit

• Spread: Jets -6
• Total: 38.5
• Patriots implied points: 16.3
• Jets implied points: 22.3

Jacoby Brissett Fantasy Outlook

The Patriots have punched above their weight through two weeks this season (+3 point differential for a team most, myself included, had checking in with under five victories this season). But the more successful this team is, the less of a chance their passing game has to return any value whatsoever.

This is the fifth-run-heaviest team in the league (57.7%), and Brissett’s season passing line (270 yards and one touchdown) reflects a single game rather than half a month. Drake Maye’s skill set is more fantasy-friendly, but until they make that move — and they have no real reason to right now given their competitive start — you can ignore the position in New England, even in 2QB formats.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Outlook

I thought Rodgers looked better on Sunday than he did in Week 1, a trend I suspect to continue as the season wears on. That said, he’s still a ways away from being viable in 1QB formats.

In both games this season, the future Hall of Famer has come up short of 180 passing yards and failed to complete even 62% of his passes.

The Patriots have allowed a league-high 27 slot completions this season (81.8% completion rate when targeting that area on the field), giving me confidence that Rodgers might find more layup completions in this game than he has up to this point. However, with the Jets running just 105 plays thus far (tied for fourth-fewest), the sheer volume is also working against him, in addition to the natural rust/learning curve that we all expected Rodgers to go through.

Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Outlook

If you gave me 25 guesses a month ago, I’m not sure I would have landed on Stevenson as the name on the RB8 line through two weeks, but here we are. One player last season had consecutive games with 20+ carries, 2+ catches, and a rushing touchdown. His name: Christian McCaffrey. Stevenson has opened the season doing just that (the last Patriot RB to do it was Dion Lewis in 2017) and yet, I remain skeptical.

Very skeptical.

Not only has he turned his eight targets into just 15 receiving yards, but he is the sole focal point of opposing defenses. The Patriots have pounded him into a loaded box (eight-plus defenders) on 45.7% of his carries this season, the sixth-highest rate and a trend I don’t see reversing given the lack of upside this offense has access to through the air.

Stevenson is a good story through two weeks and will be a better one for you if you can flip him for a reliable RB2 moving forward. The game script has largely worked in his favor, something I’m not sure we see a ton of for the remainder of the season, especially down the stretch when your playoff life is at stake.

Week 14: Bye
Week 15: at Cardinals
Week 16: at Bills

This week, I expect a low-possession game and for the Jets to control the scoreboard. Stevenson, despite his success up to this point, is not a top-20 option at the position for me.

Breece Hall Fantasy Outlook

If Hall is getting 21 touches for 114 yards and a touchdown, I’m not really worried about the role. Yes, I understand that Braelon Allen looked good (56 yards and a pair of touchdowns on nine touches). That just reinforced my opinion that he – with Jordan Mason now the starter in San Francisco – sits atop the handcuff rankings, not that he is ready to truly take food off the plate of Hall.

RODGERS TO BREECE HALL. @nyjets take the lead!

📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/9YO7lGki4Y

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

The touchdown catch was not only a thing of beauty, but it speaks to something that Hall’s raw talent couldn’t assure us of entering this season – the blind trust of his quarterback.

Now that we know that, Hall is a threat to lead all Flex players in fantasy points this season.

His score came on the heels of a 30-yard run after a slow first half. He is never far away from breaking open a drive and that potential – combined with what likely will be an improving offensive environment with each passing week – makes him a difference-maker who could lead you to the promised land this winter.

New England’s WR1 Fantasy Outlook

Even a below-average passing game can produce a viable receiver at times (just look at the Jets during Garrett Wilson’s career up to this point), but the Patriots shouldn’t be viewed as such. Yardage isn’t everything, but where do you think New England’s leading receiver ranks at the position league-wide through two weeks in terms of receiving yards?

88th.

There are 87 receivers in a 32-team league, which features as much versatility at the RB/TE positions as ever, who have more receiving yards than K.J. Osborn this season. Ja’Lynn Polk scored last week and generated some sleeper hype in August. He’s the “best” player in this receiving room, but that doesn’t mean a thing to fantasy managers playing in anything outside of AFC East-only leagues.

Garrett Wilson Fantasy Outlook

Impatient fantasy managers are looking for more from Wilson in short order, and while I understand that sentiment, the breadcrumbs for an explosion have been laid.

2023: 25.6% below fantasy expectations
2024: 23.9% below fantasy expectations

In both games this season, Rodgers has hooked up with Wilson on a high-communication play that typically takes more than a single (disjointed) offseason to develop. He’s turned 17 targets into just 21.7 PPR points up to this point, but you drafted Wilson as your WR1 with the hopes that he would be a top-10 producer in December, not September.

This may not be a get-right spot (albeit in vastly different situations, Wilson has just 94 receiving yards total over his past three games against the Pats), though benching him is outright irresponsible due to the concentration of this offense and your belief in his talent.

Target share for the Wilson/Hall tandem:

• Week 1: 58.6%
• Week 2: 48.3%

A pair of Jets were drafted as elite fantasy options this summer and through two weeks, I have no issue in maintaining my belief that a pair of Jets will finish the 2024 season as elite fantasy options.

Allen Lazard Fantasy Outlook

I’m old enough to remember when Lazard had a big game and was a popular add by fantasy managers chasing that production.

The 6-89-2 stat line in Week 1 was cute, but his 2-11-0 disaster against the Titans on Sunday is probably a little more predictive as to what we can expect moving forward. I mentioned the Hall/Wilson target share that I don’t believe is going to fade and Mike Williams saw his snap share increase from 18.4% in Week 1 to 64.3% last week.

This is a slow offense that is going to rely on efficiency over volume. Counting on a second pass catcher in this offense scares me – and I don’t think Lazard is merely that moving forward.

Mike Williams Fantasy Outlook

I stand by my preseason prior that there will be a time and a place for Williams to slide into your Flex spot (deeper formats), but we aren’t there yet. He was on a very specific snap count restriction to open the season and, true to reporting, the Jets are lengthening his leash much the way they did with Hall off of the ACL last season.

Williams isn’t a Flex option this week, and I don’t think he is a must-roster until this offense finds its groove (though I’m still stashing in leagues with deeper benches). Through two weeks, they are actually averaging fewer red-zone trips this season (2.0) than they did during the mess that was 2024 (2.2).

I think you’re going to want this scoring equity down the stretch (Dolphins-Jaguars-Rams-Bills to close the fantasy season).

Hunter Henry Fantasy Outlook

Through two weeks, the Patriots have one (1) player with more than 36 receiving yards and don’t have a receiver with more than 28. Henry has more receptions (10) than any of his teammates has targets. If there is a player in this passing game to have on your radar, it’s Henry, though that is a big “if.”

Henry (four straight games against the Jets with under 25 receiving yards) checks in as TE17 for me this week, behind the likes of Mike Gesicki and Colby Parkinson.

Tyler Conklin Fantasy Outlook

I thought he could be a reasonable floor option in this offense, a role he filled about as well as could realistically be expected last season.

I no longer think that.

Conklin has four targets and 16 yards on his 2024 résumé. Live and learn. If you’re streaming the position, you can do better.