With the 2020 NFL Draft right around the corner, I thought it would be an excellent time to put together one last mock draft. I used an amalgamation of my personal rankings with some of our draft experts like Brad Kelly and Neal Driscoll. Instead of merely listing the prospects and where they will land, I also included some of the Against the Spread team’s favorite player props. Some have little value left, but they still represent what degree of confidence I have in that pick. Draft night can be unpredictable, but based on team needs and reading an excessive number of mocks, this is how I see the board falling in round one Thursday night.
Before moving forward, this mock does not include trades. Unfortunately, trades are too difficult to predict, especially with the circumstances surrounding this year’s draft. I am sure there is going to be more than one come Thursday night, but that shouldn’t impact the way the board falls too much.
Ryan Gosling’s 2020 NFL mock draft with player props
1) Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
Finding a prop bet that still holds value for this pick is nearly impossible. Besides a short period where Miami was rumored to try and trade up, Burrow has been penciled into this spot to the Bengals for months. This is obvious in the number, with most sportsbooks having Burrow listed as a -2500 to -10000 favorite to be heading to Cincinnati.
Burrow probably had the greatest passing season ever for a college quarterback. His numbers were out of this world, with 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns to only six interceptions. The Bengals are in need of a franchise QB, and the Ohio-born star will fall right into their laps.
Prop Bet: You could invest in the huge number if you have the bankroll for it; if not, I would suggest leaving it alone.
2) Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE Ohio State
It might not be a very exciting start to the draft, but the first and second pick are basically locks at this point. Washington needs a player like Young on their defense. If the team decides to move forward with second-year QB Dwayne Haskins, defense is the pick here.
Washington has several question marks, but getting Young is a no brainer. Even though there were rumors of the team potentially trading out to a QB needy team for more draft capital, Snyder has all but squashed those rumors. It was even reported last month by a source familiar with the team’s thinking that Snyder is “infatuated” with the Ohio State pass rusher.
Prop Bet: Again, there isn’t much value left here. However, if you want to lay a significant number, you can still bet a top-two exacta of Burrow then Young at -500. As I said, it is a significant number, but I cannot see how it doesn’t hit at this point.
3) Detroit Lions: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
As my co-host Chris Smith said on the podcast this past week, the draft starts here with the Detroit Lions. This pick is entirely up in the air at this point. For the longest time, I was convinced that the Lions were going to be drafting Okudah to try and replace All-Pro Darius Slay at the cornerback position.
However, the team did bring in Desmond Trufant to play that same role to a certain extent. Another hole that Detroit has is the defensive line. Detroit’s defense had the least threatening pass rush in the league last season with the fewest amount of sacks and worst pass-rush win rate.
Brown is an immediate impact player. The 22-year-old measured in at 6-foot-5, 326 pounds at the combine. He put up 54 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, and forced two fumbles in his last season at Auburn.
Not only is he a beast of a man, but he also has a connection with the Lions defensive line coach Bo Davis. Davis recruited him coming out of high school, and Brown admitted that they have a good relationship.
Prop Bets: If you think Brown ends up in Detroit like Chris and I do, you can still make some impressive money on his prop bets.
Bet #1: First three players drafted trifecta: Burrow, Young, Brown +2200 (0.5 unit)
Bet#2: Brown to be drafted under 8.5 -145 (1 unit)
4) New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson
There is a lot of talk about Gettleman taking one of the big tackles (Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills Jr, and Mekhi Becton) in this spot. I cannot see it happening. As much as they need a tackle, Simmons is a swiss army knife that will help their defense in more than one way.
Think about it, the Giants’ defense has finished in the bottom third of the league in each of the last three seasons. They need someone who can have an immediate, and behind Young, Simmons is that next guy.
Prop Bet: Take Simmons under 6.5 at -145 (1 unit). Even if the Giants decide to go elsewhere, with all the Tua injury talk, he could easily go fifth to Miami. 6.5 is way too high.
5) Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
The Tua to Miami talk has been prevalent since the middle of last year’s college football season. Yes, recent reports have made it seem like his extensive injury history might have caused the Dolphins to sour a bit. I cannot see it. Similiar with the smokescreen surrounding Kyler Murray going to Arizona last year, I think all of this is just the team trying to convince others that they might surprise us.
There isn’t going to be a surprise. Miami will get a franchise QB, and Tua will bring happiness to Dolphin fans around the world.
Prop Bets: There are a number of ways to make some money off Tua landing in Miami.
Bet #1: Tua to be drafted fifth overall +225 (1 unit)
Bet #2: Tua drafted over 4.5 -225 (2 units)
Bet #3: Tua drafted to Miami +110 (1 unit)
6) Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
If you were to believe recent reports regarding Justin Herbert, you could have two mentalities right now. Either you think he is a terrible prospect who could become the next Paxton Lynch, or you believe that both Miami and Los Angeles are heavily pursuing him.
I personally believe he is more Lynch than he is Tua, but I do think that his positive traits enamor the Chargers. As a senior, he completed 66.8% of his passes for 3,471 yards and 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions in 14 games.
He is a good prospect and will do well sitting behind Tyrod Taylor for a year in Los Angeles. I don’t think he will be the kind of prospect that he is being hyped as, but I could look back in a year and have been completely wrong as well.
Prop Bets: Herbert as the third QB off the board -120 (1 unit)
7) Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
The fact that Okudah will fall to Matt Rhule and the Carolina Panthers will make fans of the team ecstatic. Okudah is the closest thing to a lock-down corner available in the draft. The Panthers lost top cornerback James Bradberry in free agency after he signed a three-year deal with the New York Giants for $43.5 million. Okudah will be a welcomed addition to the team.
Bet #1: Okudah to Carolina +300 (0.5 unit)
Bet#2: Okudah over 4.5 +100 (1 unit)
8) Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama
Arizona needs a starting caliber right tackle to protect second-year quarterback Kyler Murray, and Wills is going to be that guy. There is a lot of buzz building around Wills the close we get to the NFL Draft, and there is a possibility he goes as high as four to the Giants.
However, for the reasons listed above, I think he falls to Arizona, where they are able to bring in a dominant player. Wills showed well during the NFL combine with a 5.05 time in the 40-yard dash and 34.5 vertical jump. He is a solid pass protector, which will come in hand when protecting Murray.
Bet#1: Take Wills under 8.5 at +105 (1.5 units)
Bet #2: Take Wills to be the first offensive lineman drafted at -105 (1 unit)
9) Jacksonville Jaguars: C.J. Henderson, CB Florida
The Jacksonville Jaguars need to bring in CB help now that they lost both Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Henderson can make an immediate impact and provide the team with a defensive weapon. Plus, the Jaguars have a history of drafting Gators. They’ve taken 11 in the 25 years the franchise has existed.
Henderson has the size to handle big receivers and the speed to stick with small ones. If you compare their physical profiles, he has almost the same build as Ramsey with a similar skill set as a lock-down corner in both zone and man coverage.
Prop Bet: Take Henderson under his current prop of 12.5 +110 (1 unit)
10) Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
Even though Wirfs is still available, I see the Cleveland Browns bringing in Andrew Thomas. With the Browns, Thomas could play his natural position at left tackle, unlike Wirfs, who would need to move over from the right.
At 5-foot-9, 203 pounds, Thomas is as ready to make the jump to NFL starting left tackle as anybody in the draft. He allowed just 37 quarterback pressures over his three years at Georgia, and just nine last season.
Prop Bet: Take Thomas to be drafted under his current number of 11.5 -125 (1 unit)
11) New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
The debate between whether or not the New York Jets will decide to either protect Darnold or give him a weapon continues. I am on the side of them giving him a weapon. They lost Robby Anderson to the Panthers in free agency and are left with Jamison Crowder and recently signed free agent Breshad Perriman.
Wirfs is still available here, but being able to get arguably the best WR in this draft will be too enticing to pass up. Last season, Lamb had 62 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is a high-upside prospect at the position with incredible ball skills.
Bet #1: Take Lamb under 13.5 -125 (1 unit)
Bet #2: The Jets take a WR with their first pick +120 (1 unit)
Bet #3: Lamb first WR to be drafted +105 (1 unit)
12) Las Vegas Raiders: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
The Jets will kick off a run on wide receivers. The Las Vegas Raiders still have questions at the quarterback position, with Jon Gruden bringing in Marcus Mariota to compete with current starter Derek Carr. However, one this is sure, the offense can use another weapon. They will get one in the excellent route-runner Jerry Jeudy.
Prop Bet: Take Jeudy to the Raiders +225 (1 unit)
13) San Francisco 49ers: Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
Can you imagine combining Henry Ruggs and his speed alongside Deebo Samuel? Well, that is exactly what the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan are going to do.
The team needs to add depth at the WR position. Marquise Goodwin, arguably one of the fastest players in the league, ended the 2019 season on injured reserve with chronic knee and foot issues. Dante Pettis has had a disappointing career, to say the least, with 38 catches for 576 yards in two NFL seasons. Plus, they also lost Emmanuel Sanders to the Saints during the offseason.
They need to bring in someone else, and Ruggs will be the perfect player to make this offense even more dangerous.
Prop Bet: There isn’t one that I really like here. If interested, 49ers to draft an offensive player is -168 at most books.
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa
The Buccaneers were able to land the most prominent free agency prize available this season in Tom Brady. Now, they are going to need to protect him. They already have the weapons necessary to help Brady return to greatness, but the offensive line needs help.
Donovan Smith is locked in at the left tackle spot for at least one more season, but it doesn’t look like long-time starter Demar Dotson will be returning on the right side this season.
Wirfs has been projected to go higher, but with the top-level talent available at other positions before 14, a slide is very possible. The OTs are all very close in my rankings, so they could swap spots come draft day, but the Buccs get a steal this time around.
Prop Bet: The only prop that I might put some action on is Wirfs over 8.5 at +110. However, these prospects are too close for me to make a confident play here.
15) Denver Broncos: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
Jefferson’s draft stock has done nothing but rise since the end of the college football season. At the combine, he blew away expectations with a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and 37.5-inch vertical and 126-inch broad jumps.
This could be a little bit high for Jefferson, but I think that his talent is enough to justify him being taken this high. The Bronco’s need a WR, and with receiving ability flying off the board, they are better to grab one now then wait. Pairing Jefferson with Drew Lock will make this Bronco’s offense a bit more dangerous.
Prop Bet: Take Jefferson’s under at 21.5 -120 (2 units). I am doubling down on this one because I really think that the number is off. Even if Jefferson does fall, he won’t fall past the Eagles at 21.
16) Atlanta Falcons: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
The Falcons need to get cornerback help. They lost their top cornerback Desmond Trufant in free agency. As of right now, they would be starting Isaiah Oliver, Kendall Sheffield, and Jordan Miller. Not being able to land Henderson is going to be tough for them, he was the guy that they have been eyeing since the beginning of the draft process. Unless they trade up, I don’t see him being available at 16.
Over the past two seasons, he has been one of the most imposing corners in college football, allowing a completion rate of just 43.2% and only 6.1 yards per target. In 2019, he led the position with 20 forced incompletions.
Prop Bet: If you think Fulton will go here to Atlanta, his over/under prop is 25.5 -102 (1 unit). I like the under here.