There are some intriguing candidates among the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year betting odds, even in what many considered to be a relatively weak draft class this year. This award is somewhat different from some of the others in that it’s hard to drill down which position could take it home. In the last six years, we’ve seen two running backs, two quarterbacks, and two wide receivers win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
In the article below, we will look at the current odds for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, as well as who our betting analysts believe will hold the trophy this year and who could be intriguing longshots.
In this article, our analysts are PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, Betting and Fantasy Analysts Jason Katz and Kyle Soppe, and FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica.
All the NFL betting odds at a moment’s notice — visit our Betting Lines page, bookmark now, and always get the best line and bang for your buck. Our FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process!
Live NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Place your bet on this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year on the widget below!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-futures/topic:ap-offensive-rookie-of-the-year/variant:2?id=2a3132a9-33d9-4a3f-b540-e7b590bedfe1″]
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
Wingo: Obviously, the skill set Bijan Robinson (+300 at FanDuel) brings to the NFL is eclectic. And with a less-than-certain situation at QB, head coach Arthur Smith is going to find plenty of ways to use his rookie RB. Remember, Smith was a highly touted OC in Tennessee before getting the job in Atlanta.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Bryce Young (+500 at FanDuel) was the most pro-ready QB in the draft because of his ability to process and make decisions quickly. Now he will start for a team that is in a poor division and has some things to work with on offense.
He also faces some bad defenses right off the bat, which should allow him to have a smoother transition. It’s not a sexy pick, but I think it’s the smartest one.
Bearman: Fallica made all the good points about why Young is the smart pick. However, there are going to be growing pains in Carolina, and I’m not sold that he was the best QB in the draft to begin with. Young very well may win the award because he plays all 17 games and has the best season of any rookie QB.
However, Bijan Robinson (+300) is where I am going to put my money. Smith is a run-first guy and should use Bijan as a three-down back. He has the same easy schedule that Young has, but I think Robinson has a better chance to succeed.
Katz: It would be a dereliction of duty to recommend anything other than Bijan Robinson (+300). While Anthony Richardson is interesting, it’s difficult to see any of the quarterbacks winning it without taking their teams to the playoffs.
Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. He’s got a three-down skill set and is joining the most run-heavy offense in the league. He’s certainly not a great value, but he’s the most likely to win it.
Blewis: I’m counting on Bijan Robinson (+300) to have a monster season in Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta. Smith’s offensive scheme brings the most out of their running backs, as the Falcons had the fourth-most efficient rushing offense last season in EPA per play.
Atlanta has plenty of RB depth, including last year’s stellar rookie in Tyler Allgeier, but they just invested a top-10 pick in Robinson, so I’m counting on him being heavily featured in their offense.
Soppe: How am I the only one intrigued by Anthony Richardson (+800 at FanDuel)? I don’t think any of us believe that the rookie QBs in this class are going to win a ton of games, but the league as a whole is pretty set on the “running backs don’t matter” storyline.
If you’re of the belief that a quarterback will win this award like I am and that none of them are going to flirt with a 10-win season, then this becomes a fantasy football award.
If that’s the case, this is Richardson’s award to lose. We know the athletic profile is nothing short of special, allowing him to produce in a way that the competition at the QB position simply cannot.
With a skill set like that, his ceiling is exciting at the very least, and given the drama this preseason around Jonathan Taylor, any success this team is going to have rides on Richardson.
Robinson is the favorite, but he’s going to have to overwhelm to overcome the RB sitgma. Not to mention the fact that a fifth-round rookie put up nearly 1,200 yards in this offense last season.
Don’t miss out on these sportsbook promos this NFL season!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/dynamic/sportsbooks:1,2,11,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/promos:1?id=33e46e56-63b9-4eea-8c5a-3302869d251e”]
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: Keep your eye on two WRs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1500 at DraftKings) and Quentin Johnston (+2500 at DraftKings). Smith goes to a WR corps in Seattle, where he won’t be the main focus, which should create great opportunities for him.
Johnston has one of the best QBs in the game who is looking to get his new WR action soon in a group of aging LA pass catchers. Add in the ground presence of Austin Ekeler, and Johnston should shine.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Quentin Johnston (+2500) fell into a great spot with the Chargers. He’s got one of the best QBs in the league, and fellow WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen can’t stay on the field on a consistent basis. Johnston’s going to get plenty of looks in this offense, and if a WR again wins OROY, this is the one I’d back.
Bearman: This is going to be a shot in the dark, but that’s really the exercise, right?
I love the weapons in Detroit, and should something happen to Jared Goff, former Vol Hendon Hooker (+3000 at DraftKings) would step into a great situation. No, I’m not rooting for an injury or expecting one, but that would be one great offense for him to step into. And until he got hurt, I loved everything I saw from Hooker last season.
Katz: If you really want a longshot pick, the only one with even a remotely plausible path is Zach Charbonnet (+2500 at DraftKings). Similar to how Kenneth Walker III gave the 2022 OROY award a run after Rashaad Penny went down, if Walker goes down, Charbonnet would see an increased workload.
If things break right, he could do something similar, except he won’t have a Garrett Wilson to compete with at wide receiver.
Blewis: I’m all in on the Baltimore Ravens’ much-improved passing offense this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken with a healthy Lamar Jackson. They also have a deeper WR corps than ever, with any one of them potentially emerging as the WR1 this season.
So why not Zay Flowers? The 2023 first-round pick has been getting glowing reviews so far in training camp, and each of the other wide receivers he’s competing with for targets has their own question marks. Wide receivers have won this award two years in a row now, and I really like Flowers as a longshot pick (+3000 at DraftKings).
Soppe: If we are moving down the board a bit, sign me up for Zay Flowers (+3000). I’m not going to tell you that his skill-set is superior to the other receivers in this loaded class, but I don’t think anyone will argue against his path to consistent volume being certainly more clear.
For just the second time in NFL history, we’ve seen a receiver win this award in consecutive seasons (Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 and Garrett Wilson last year), and if Lamar Jackson is going to have an MVP season that I believe he will, there’s a good chance that Flowers’ development is ahead of pace and that he is the go-to receiver sooner than later in this Todd Monken offense.
Recent Risers and Fallers
No rookie saw their odds improve more than Zay Flowers, who is now +1800 after entering the preseason at +3000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at DraftKings. Flowers looked impressive in limited preseason snaps, and he has a legitimate chance of being Lamar Jackson’s favorite target in this Baltimore Ravens offense after Mark Andrews.
Jaxon Smith-Nijgba underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his wrist that he injured in Week 2 of the NFL preseason. The injury puts JSN’s status for the very beginning of the season up in the air, and as a result, his odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year moved from +1500 to +2000 at DraftKings.
Who Is the Favorite To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Bijan Robinson has been installed as the clear favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +300. Although he is joining a backfield where Tyler Allgeier ran for over 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson should see a featured role right away in this Atlanta Falcons offense.
MORE: 2023 Win-Total Projections for All 32 Teams
Each of the three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft has been named their team’s starter. None of Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Anthony Richardson, however, play on teams projected to make the playoffs this season, which is a big reason why they’re behind Robinson in odds despite this award generally going to quarterbacks.