The NFL MVP betting odds do not make for surprising reading, with the QB position dominating the top of the board. Not only that, but the top four spots are occupied by quarterbacks of teams expected to be pushing for a Super Bowl berth. Given that 15 of the last 16 awards have been won by the position, and only once in that time has a QB of a team with less than 12 wins taken home the award, the top contenders make a ton of sense.
Let’s take a look at the current NFL MVP award odds, as well as both predictions and longshot selections from PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, our Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, Betting and Fantasy Analysts Jason Katz & Kyle Soppe, and FOX Sports Chris “The Bear” Fallica.
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NFL MVP Predictions
Wingo: Any conversations about MVP has to begin with Patrick Mahomes (+650, Caesars). He showed last year he can do more than anybody else with less than anybody else. Leading the league in passing yards and TDs and setting the single-season combined yardage record AFTER losing Tyreek Hill is where any discussion of MVP must begin.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: The biggest story of the offseason was Aaron Rodgers (+1600, FanDuel) being traded to the Jets. It will continue to be a huge story, and if the Jets, who won seven games last year with some of the worst QB play in the league out of Zach Wilson and Mike White, happen to improve on that win total and make the playoffs under Rodgers, well you know what the narrative is going to be.
Given the Jets start with Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and Kansas City, a good start will mean that number on Rodgers will plummet quickly, meaning the best number likely could come now.
Bearman: Mahomes is going to be the popular pick, and deservingly so. I’ll probably have a ticket on him as well, but for this exercise, I am going to go with Jalen Hurts (+800).
He was the favorite before hurting his shoulder last season and very well could’ve won it had he stayed healthy and didn’t miss Weeks 16 and 17. We saw what he could do in the Super Bowl on his own, and the Eagles have added even more pieces to a team that finished with the best record last year. If he stays healthy and plays all 17 games, the sky is the limit.
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Katz: Mahomes has been the league’s most valuable player since 2018. Much like LeBron James pretty much every year from 2005-2020, he should win the award. But voters seem to experience award fatigue.
Jalen Hurts was all set to capitalize on that before a shoulder injury cost him two games and the award. Hurts now has an even stronger supporting cast and has fully established himself as a top-five quarterback in the league. At +800, Hurts is the pick.
Blewis: If I’m not going to take Patrick Mahomes, how about Lamar Jackson (+1500 at DraftKings)? With Todd Monken replacing Greg Roman and the massive improvements made to their wide receiver group, we’ll finally have a modern-day passing offense in Baltimore this season.
With a more aggressive play-caller combined with the best playmakers of his career, I’m expecting a massive surge in passing production from Jackson this season. The rushing upside is still obviously there as well. The biggest question mark for him is if he will stay healthy this season.
Soppe: MVP is a quarterback award — 15 of the past 16 winners, including 10 straight — that often goes to a player on a winning team (once since 2003 has a QB lost more than four games when they won the MVP). Those are two boxes that Jackson should have no problem with in 2023.
I get the excitement around Monken directing this offensive show, but I’m old enough to remember when Jackson was producing monster numbers without the aid of an offensive guru. So are you…it was less than a year ago.
Over the first month of 2022, Jackson led the NFL in pass touchdown rate while ranking ninth in the NFL (not at the position, the entire league) in rushing yards.
In those first four games, Jackson was also trending for an uptick in deep completion percentage for the fourth consecutive season. And that, friends, is the skeleton key.
Jackson is more than capable of putting up video game numbers and winning games, but if Monken opts to stretch the field and leverage what Jackson is capable of, we could be looking at one of those special seasons.
The MVP award can be a narrative-driven one, and even that could work in the favor of Jackson. In the second half of November, Jackson will be going head-to-head with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, two QBs currently priced ahead of him in the market. I’m more than comfortable with Jackson holding my MVP money at +1500.
Blewis: Another MVP bet I’ve made is Trevor Lawrence (+1600 at BetMGM). When betting on this award, there is no value on putting money on anyone with odds shorter than +1000, but you also want to take a player who you think has a realistic shot at winning.
In year two under Doug Pederson, in a very weak AFC South, and with Calvin Ridley in the mix, Lawrence is in prime position to take a big leap this season. Lawrence, along with Lamar, are the two best values on the board in my opinion of the elite quarterbacks, and this is a quarterback award.
NFL MVP Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: Jared Goff (+4000, Caesars) and Russell Wilson (+4500, Caesars). This could be a transcendent year for the Detroit Lions, and Goff has the weapons around him to make an interesting run. And wouldn’t it be fascinating to see Russell Wilson enter the conversation after never even getting a single MVP vote all those years in Seattle, now that he’s got Sean Payton to rejuvenate him?
Fallica: With the 49ers unsettled at QB, the offense will run through Christian McCaffrey (+20000, FanDuel) and Deebo Samuel. It’s unlikely a running back will win the award, but McCaffrey is so dynamic, and we saw what he was capable of last year when healthy in San Francisco when he easily could have won Comeback Player of the Year. If the Niners survive without Brock Purdy early on, CMC will be a big reason why.
Bearman: It’s hard to find anyone outside the +2000 range that you’d love for MVP, but I am going to agree with Trey here. The Lions are set up to have a great season, and if they do, a big IF, Jared Goff (+4000, Caesars), would be in line to steal the award.
40-1 wins have been found with Lamar Jackson in 2019 and Mahomes in 2018 (before they were household names), so if the Lions don’t do Lions stuff and actually perform to their capability, +4000 would be a nice ticket.
Katz: For a true longshot to win this award, he would need to be capable of an outlier touchdown year, while his team wins more games than expected. There may be some residual reluctance amongst voters to give any sort of praise to Deshaun Watson, but we’ve seen him play at an MVP level before.
If he can return to that level and the Browns win 12+ games, Deshaun Watson (+3000) has as good of a shot as anyone. At those odds, he’s worth the stab.
Blewis: The best value in finding sleeper MVP candidates are young QBs that you expect to take a leap. With major improvements made to their offense, Justin Fields is the obvious candidate that comes to mind. However, he is far from a sleeper anymore. After opening at +4000, he has been bet all the way down to +2000 to win the award.
The public is very aware of this trend after Jalen Hurts nearly won MVP last season and Lamar Jackson took the award a few years ago as a second-year player. But when looking at the board, none of the really big longshots have that type of Hurts-like upside to me. So if I had to pick one player outside the top 10 in odds to win the award, I would go with Dak Prescott (+2500 at DraftKings).
This absolutely pains me to write as an Eagles fan, but Prescott gets underrated due to public perception from talking heads on national television and recent embarrassing playoff losses. When Prescott was healthy last season, the Cowboys’ offense was elite, as they were sixth in EPA per play for the rest of the season after he returned from injury.
There has been much publicity around his interceptions and his quote that he won’t throw 10 picks this season. I might be one of the few people buying it, or at least that he won’t throw as many as last season, with at least a couple of them being flukey (Jaguars game in OT, for example). Prescott is also in a weak NFC, with not much competition outside of Philadelphia and San Francisco to battle for the top seed, and this is an award generally given to a QB on an elite team.
Recent Risers and Fallers
The biggest change over the course of the past few months has been Justin Fields’ MVP odds. In early February, Fields was as high as +3000, but that has now roughly halved to +1400 on DraftKings. While most other players have fluctuated but stayed reasonably constant, Fields has seen consistent movement.
With the Bears’ moves in free agency, plus the addition of DJ Moore at wide receiver, Fields’ odds dropped into the +2000 region. A solid draft class has now seen those odds fall even further to make Fields the most substantial riser or faller of anyone in terms of recent MVP odds.
Who Is the Favorite To Win the MVP?
It’s no real surprise to see that Mahomes (+700) is the favorite to win the MVP award. Mahomes took home the award for the second time last season, and coming off a second Super Bowl winner, his stock could not be much higher right now. However, he’s by no means a run-away favorite, with Joe Burrow (+750), Hurts, and Josh Allen (both +800) all marginally behind him.