When it comes to the 2023 NFL win totals and betting odds, there aren’t a huge amount of surprising numbers that stand out. But that doesn’t mean there’s no potential value to be found; it’s just a case of identifying it. Let’s take a look at the current NFL win totals and odds, as well as which lines our analysts believe could present the best value.
Don’t miss up on these sign-up promos this NFL season!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/dynamic/sportsbooks:1,2,11,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/promos:1?id=cf077db8-ebd7-4e51-9669-47dd2b8971dc”]
Live NFL Win Totals and Odds
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Aug. 29.
NFL Win Totals Predictions
Wingo: Kansas City Chiefs over 11.5 wins (-145 on Caesars) and Cincinnati Bengals over 11.5 wins (+105 on Caesars)
When it comes to win totals, go with what you know. There’s a reason every year in the 2000s, the Patriots and Colts were always putting up double-digit wins — they had the best quarterbacks.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. So for me, the obvious choices are Kansas City and Cincinnati because, last time I checked, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are still employed by these two teams. Mahomes has led his team to host the AFC Championship Game every single year he’s been a starter. And every season Burrow has been healthy, the Bengals have been there as well.
Now some may ask why not Josh Allen or Justin Herbert or Aaron Rodgers then?
Well, Herbert plays for the Chargers…who would have to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs in that division. The AFC East suddenly might just be the toughest division in football, which means the Bills, Jets, AND Dolphins may be beating each other up all season. Go with what you know, and we know where Mahomes leads the Chiefs and where Burrow leads the Bengals.
Bearman: New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins (+114 on BetMGM)
Honestly didn’t think I’d end up on the Saints of all teams, but after seeing Chris Fallica’s write-up for Dennis Allen as a Coach of the Year pick, I gave the schedule a look.
Hear me out: New Orleans plays in one of the two worst divisions in football and are the +120 favorite to win the NFC South. A 4-2 record against the Falcons, Bucs, and Panthers is conservative, considering they’re favorites.
The Saints also play all four teams in the AFC South, arguably the worst division in football. Let’s give them another conservative 2-2 vs. the Jags, Titans, Colts, and Texans; 3-1 is quite possible.
MORE: Super Bowl 58 Odds
In the NFC, the Saints get the North and should be able to go 2-2. With a very conservative 8-6 there, they’d have to go 2-1 against the Giants, Rams, and Pats. All winnable.
Early game lines have the Saints favored in 11 of 17 games, a one-point dog in three more, and an underdog of no more than three points in any game. I did this exercise with the spread last year and deemed the 9.5 for Philly to be the strap. They won the first eight and 14 of 17. Just saying.
Blewis: New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins
I agree with Bearman here. I expect the Saints to be much better this season not only due to an upgrade at quarterback but also because of their easy schedule and expected positive regression in various luck categories.
The NFC South was the weakest division in football last season, and it perhaps got even weaker with Tom Brady retiring. That’s six very winnable games right off the bat, with New Orleans being favored in each game vs. their division rivals this season.
Just when you thought their schedule couldn’t get easier, wait until you find out they play the AFC South, the second-worst division in the NFL.
But wait, there’s more! In the Saints’ other seven games this upcoming season, only one is against a team projected to make the playoffs according to playoff odds: the Detroit Lions. So out of New Orleans’ 17 opponents this season, only two are against projected playoff teams (Lions, Jaguars).
Besides their schedule, the Saints are also due for some positive regression in turnover differential this season. They were tied for the second-fewest takeaways last season with 14, and this defense is way too talented and has too easy of a schedule of opposing QBs not to exceed that drastically in 2023.
Want to bet with Bearman and Blewis on the Saints’ over? Click on the widget below!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:regular-season-wins/topic:regular-season-wins-new-orleans-saints/variant:2?id=70dd9a63-2aa3-48f9-80c4-141265bcbcd1″]
Katz: Carolina Panthers under 7.5 wins (+100 on DraftKings)
I was very surprised to see this slightly juiced toward the over. Eight wins is nearly a .500 season. That is a mighty ask from a team largely devoid of talent starting a rookie quarterback. Even if we assume the Panthers win at home over the Texans, Colts, and Bucs, they have several road games almost certain to be losses.
Games against the Seahawks, Lions, Dolphins, Saints, and Jaguars will be tough to win. Carolina also has home dates against the Vikings and Packers. That’s seven projected losses right there. To go over this number, they’d have to win all but two of their remaining games. I just don’t see it happening.
Soppe: Jacksonville Jaguars over 9.5 wins (-140 on DraftKings)
Let’s be clear about something: “Counting” wins is crazy. I have no idea what version of this team will be available come November, nor do I have any idea of the status of any of their opponents.
That said, I do believe in trying to identify tough spots. Every team has a handful of them on the schedule, and those that go over their win total have a way of performing better in those spots than projected.
MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Lines — Preview, Odds, Spreads, Win Total
Again, all of this changes if Trevor Lawrence goes down in Week 2, but the way this schedule plays out is promising. There are five opponents that jump out on Jacksonville’s schedule, and the Jaguars have a nice advantage in each of them.
- Week 2 vs. KC: Early-season games in Florida are never a walk in the park for the opposition.
- Week 5 vs. BUF*: Jacksonville is no stranger to these London games. Plus, being across the pond the week prior allows them to eliminate any travel issues.
- Week 10 vs. SF: Playing at home off a bye is a good spot to be.
- Week 13 vs. CIN: Playing at home after a potentially stress-free game in Houston, facing a team coming off of consecutive bloody-your-nose AFC North battles.
- Week 15 vs. BAL: Playing at home against a team that plays four straight games in different cities.
So yeah, a travel advantage in the five games you’d most likely pencil in as losses isn’t a bad thing. Oh, and we’re talking about a southern team that has really just one weather concern from Weeks 9-17.
I expect Jacksonville’s offense to be bulletproof and, with that, a league-average defense (they ranked 18th in yards per play allowed last season). The Jaguars are a real threat to soar past this total.
Which NFL Team Could Be the Biggest Surprise in 2023?
Wingo: Atlanta Falcons over 8.5 wins (-130 on Caesars)
If you’re looking for a team to take a flyer on, why not Atlanta? The entire NFC South is in flux.
Whatever Desmond Ridder is going to be, we might see the best version of him this season. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and now rookie RB Bijan Robinson are at Ridder’s disposal.
Arthur Smith got the Falcons job after a great run at OC in Tennessee, and he finally has enough weapons on offense to be creative. Atlanta could really surprise some teams this season.
Bearman: Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 wins (+110 on FanDuel)
Listen, this team is too talented to be a five-win team like last year. Two years ago, the Rams won a Super Bowl. Yes, the team is different, but there’s still talent there in Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald — all of whom got injured in 2022.
If healthy, there are seven wins out there for Los Angeles. The Rams play the Cardinals twice, Giants, Commanders, Browns, Steelers, Saints, and Colts. With Sean McVay, Los Angeles can be a surprise team out there.
Katz: Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 wins
Call me crazy, but I’m kind of “in” on the Rams this season. After all, they’re just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Health is obviously a big concern, but by all accounts, Stafford and Kupp are healthy.
The Rams won 12 games in 2021. Although they do have a tough draw this year facing the NFC East and AFC North, at their best, they’re good enough to beat anyone. I’m not saying the Rams are a lock to bounce back, but out of all the teams with low projected win totals, L.A. has the best shot at beating theirs by multiple wins.
Bet with Bearman and Katz on the Rams’ over using the widget below!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:regular-season-wins/topic:regular-season-wins-los-angeles-rams/variant:2?id=3069ef5e-a99f-4e0a-89dd-d84c9ed247b4″]
Blewis: Denver Broncos Over 8.5 wins (-110 on DraftKings)
BRONCOS COUNTRY, LETS RIDE!
The coaching upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton is a big reason why I’m taking this over. I stand with Payton in that was one of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history last season, and now Denver has one of the best in all of football.
Coaching aside, I also like the upgrades the Broncos made to their offensive line, and I think Russell Wilson has more left in the tank than he showed last season. I expect the Broncos to use him more as a game manager and rely on their running game and stout defense to win football games. They should also have better injury luck in 2023, as they led the league in adjusted games lost to injury, according to Football Outsiders last season.
Which NFL Team Has the Highest Win Total?
Currently, at DraftKings, last year’s two Super Bowl teams — the Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles — have the highest win totals this season at 11.5. There is juice on each team to go in opposite directions of their win total, however, as the Chiefs are -140 to go over and the Eagles are -115 to hit the under.
Following them, there are a handful of teams with win totals over 10.5 — Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and San Francisco 49ers.
Which NFL Team Has the Lowest Win Total?
The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest win total for the 2023 season at 3.5 wins. Their win total dropped from 4.5 recently as the team looks poised to “win” the rights to draft USC QB Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.