We’re just a couple weeks away from the 2023 NFL regular season opener between the Detroit Lions and the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. Will the Chiefs become the first team to repeat since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots?
Our experts in PFN Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, and betting and fantasy analysts Jason Katz & Kyle Soppe break down the Super Bowl 58 betting odds, give our their predictions, their longshot picks, and more.
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Super Bowl 58 Predictions
Wingo: Sometimes we tend to overthink things, and we seem to do it every year with the Kansas City Chiefs (+600 at Caesars). Last season was going to be their “hard reset” season. Instead, it ended up with a second Super Bowl ring and a third appearance in the last four seasons.
The Chiefs are to the 2020s what the Patriots were to the 2000s and 2010s: You start with them and work your way down. As long as Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce are together, KC is the mountaintop and the easy choice.
In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers (+850 at Caesars) almost got to the Super Bowl without a QB. Barring another catastrophic injury run at the most important position in football, San Francisco seems poised to be the favorite to represent a rather bland NFC with the Eagles being their only real challengers.
Bearman: Yes, we all know about the Super Bowl hangover, when teams who lose in the Super Bowl don’t return. But the Bengals and Chiefs put that to rest the last two years, and so will the Philadelphia Eagles (+650 at DraftKings) this season.
Philly was one of the top teams, if not the top team, in the NFL most of last season. They only struggled in the two games Jalen Hurts was out and were a play or two on defense from winning the Super Bowl.
Since then, Philadelphia has added more Georgia Bulldogs on defense, D’Andre Swift in the backfield, and brought back a loaded offensive line. With Hurts again being an MVP candidate and A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert as offensive weapons, I don’t see a drop-off. This appears to be a good price while everyone else is betting on the Chiefs to repeat.
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Katz: I verily believe the Eagles (+650 at DraftKings) are winning the Super Bowl this season. They had a better team than the Chiefs last year, but Hurts wasn’t 100%, and, well, Mahomes is a wizard.
But now Philadelphia’s had a taste of what greatness looks like. They improved the roster by adding Swift and a premium first-round defender in Jalen Carter.
The Eagles also have the benefit of playing in a very weak NFC. When looking at the contenders, I have a very hard time finding anyone other than a healthy 49ers team that is truly a threat to the Eagles. Betting favorites on futures usually isn’t the best value, but Philadelphia is the clear favorite to reach the Super Bowl. At that point, they just need to win.
Blewis: I’m going to be a homer here and take my favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles (+650 at DraftKings).
The Eagles lost both of their coordinators and six starters from last season in free agency, yet they still have maybe the best team on paper in the NFL. Not to mention the competition in the NFC is noticeably weaker than in the AFC.
Two concerns with the Eagles would be 1) A Super Bowl hangover, and 2) not having the same injury luck as last season, as every starter was active for the postseason. But as David mentioned earlier, the Super Bowl hangover theory has become more of a myth in recent history.
With that being said, I will not actually be betting them to win the Super Bowl as there is very little value in picking one of the heavy favorites.
Soppe: We know what Josh Allen and this Buffalo Bills (+900 at DraftKings) offense offers. Heck, they might be even better this year than years past with the addition of Dalton Kincaid, the role expansion of James Cook, and the projected growth of Gabe Davis.
A full season from former All-Pro Tre’Davious White should allow this team to further punish opponents after their offense forces them into a one-dimensional attack. Last season, the Bills were a top-seven defense in interception percentage, third-down rate, and yards per pass. They might be even better in 2023, and that makes them my favorite to win it all.
Super Bowl 58 Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: The Baltimore Ravens (+2200 at Caesars) come to mind as perhaps the most intriguing sleeper. The Ravens resolved their QB issues, added WR help for Lamar Jackson, and can’t possibly be as injured as they have been the last two seasons.
Bearman: Sure, it might seem like a homer pick, and in the end, it might be. But anyone who saw the Miami Dolphins’ (+2200 at DraftKings) offense last year while Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, knows they have a shot if he stays on the field.
The Dolphins are stacked up and down the offense with skilled players and added Vic Fangio as the new DC to help a unit that was ranked in the top 10 in defense just two years ago. An already talented defense added All-Pro Jalen Ramsey and can keep the powerful AFC quarterbacks at bay. If injuries don’t bite this team, Miami has as good a chance as anyone in the loaded AFC.
Katz: The AFC is loaded. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence are all in the AFC. Plus, the conference gained Aaron Rodgers and could see bounce-back years from Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. As a result, a team like the Dolphins (+2200 at DraftKings) gets saddled with longer odds than their talent suggests they should have.
What would this look like if the Dolphins switched places with the Bucs, for example? They’d probably be around +1000. We’re getting longer odds because of the difficulty. But Miami doesn’t have to beat out every great AFC team. They just need to make the playoffs and win four games.
Lest we forget, this Dolphins team was 8-3 last season before Tua was lost for the season. With a loaded roster and a healthy quarterback, they can compete with anyone.
Blewis: While I like the Dolphins and Ravens as semi-long shots, I’m going to be a contrarian and go with the Seattle Seahawks (+3000 at DraftKings).
The Seahawks were a surprise playoff team last season thanks to Geno Smith’s breakout, and they should be even better in 2023. Seattle should have an even more explosive offense this season with the additions of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet in the draft, and I’m counting on Geno’s success to carry over from 2022.
Did I mention the NFC is also very weak? If I’m going to make a sleeper pick, I’m going to avoid picking one in the same conference as the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills.
Soppe: The NFC is the lesser conference, so if you’re going to roll the dice on a team to emerge, that’s where you need to start.
The Saints brought in Derek Carr to lead an offense that I very much think is headed in the right direction. Mix in some cleaning up around the edge (well below average in red zone offense and penalty rate) with an end of season schedule that should allow them to move up the standings (at LAR, at TB, and vs ATL to close) and we could be looking at a dome team with home playoff games in a weak conference.
Could that return Carr to Vegas this winter? If you want a lottery ticket, the Bills to beat the Saints (+13000 at DraftKings) in Super Bowl 58 has my attention.
Recent Risers and Fallers
No player has had a bigger impact on the Super Bowl odds this season than Aaron Rodgers. When the odds first opened back in February, the New York Jets were as high as +4000, and the Green Bay Packers were +3000. Right now at DraftKings, the Jets have seen their odds fall all the way down to +1600, and the Packers are +6500.
Since the start of training camp, there have been a couple of teams who have seen a shift in their odds to win the Super Bowl. The New Orleans Saints, for example, were +4000 back in July and are now +3000 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos’ odds moved from +4000 to +4500.
Who Is the Favorite To Win Super Bowl 58?
It’s no surprise that the Chiefs are Super Bowl 58 favorites. That has been the case dating back even before they won the Super Bowl last year. Kansas City has now been to three of the last four Super Bowls and won two of them. Narrowly behind them are the Eagles, Buffalo Bills, 49ers, and Bengals.