Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 11 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report for Week 11: Blustery Conditions for the Early Slate of Games
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 11 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 11 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Don’t get me wrong, I understand why the NFL moved the Bills game, but I can’t lie: I wish we could have watched that one play out. Instead, rather than playing in the snow, all we have to worry about whether-wise is wind due to changes in the Eastern jetstream.
It will look pleasant on camera, but the clear, sunny skies and 38-degree winds will feel closer to 26 thanks to 16 to 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25 to even 30 mph. We will see very similar conditions for the games in this general area of the country in the 1 p.m. ET portion of the slate for Week 11.
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Baker Mayfield is back under center, and that instantly has me worried for DJ Moore. Moore was sensational between Weeks 7 and 8, with 10.5 targets, 6.5 receptions, and 110.5 receiving yards per game with PJ Walker starting at QB, but Walker dropped off over the last two weeks, which led to the change. Moore has a 27.9% target share (12th) and 44.1% air yard share (second), which is elite.
But in games with Mayfield, Moore averaged 8.5 PPR with 3.17 receptions and 36.8 yards on 7.1 targets. Throw in the Ravens’ secondary and Mayfield’s inability to hit the deep ball reliably, and Moore is a WR3 for Week 11.
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5), O/U 38.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
East Rutherford will experience near identical conditions to those in Baltimore. Clear skies and 37-degree temperatures will feel closer to 27 thanks to wind speeds of 16 to 20 mph and gusts closing in on 30 mph at their peak. There is no threat of snow, so these teams only need to worry about the wind.
Teams are who they are schematically, and the winds won’t change how they operate. The Jets are middle of the pack pace-wise and sit 20th in neutral rush rate. Meanwhile, the Patriots take the air out of the ball, sitting 26th in neutral pace and eighth in rushing rate.
This game should feature the RBs, but even those have questions. Rhamondre Stevenson has been fantastic, including in the last two games (21 touches and 120.5 total yards per game), where he played with Damien Harris.
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However, Harris is far healthier now, and the Jets have one of the better run defenses in the league, sitting fourth in DVOA and eighth in points allowed to RBs. Stevenson is still a high-end RB2 for Week 11, whereas Harris is a touchdown-dependant RB3/4.
I don’t have the same optimism for Michael Carter. Over the last two weeks, Carter has averaged 12 touches and 73.5 total yards. Against the Bills, Carter rushed for a season-high 76 yards and his third touchdown of the season in Week 10, but I do expect James Robinson to be more involved coming out of the bye week.
Since Week 5, New England is seventh in yards allowed and third in DVOA. Carter is a mid-RB3, whereas Robinson is a mid-RB4.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3), O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Rinse and repeat. Highs in the low 30s with wind chills in the mid-20s with clear, sunny skies and 13 to 17 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 30 mph. It’s the same forecast as both previous locations.
2022 has not been fun for fantasy in New York, but if there is one highlight, it has been Saquon Barkley’s return to prominence. Barkley is the RB3 in fantasy while averaging 25.2 touches and 125.3 total yards.
The burst looks like it never left, and his decisiveness is that of an RB who has no hesitation. Throw in a 16% target share (sixth) and elite metrics across the board, and the only question left is: how many yards will Barkley run for on Sunday?
He’s in line for over 25 touches again and faces one of the best matchups possible. Detroit has allowed the sixth most points to the position and, since Week 5, sits 30th in yards per game allowed. Taking the higher on Barkley’s 98.5 rushing yards on Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems is one my my favorite plays of the week.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 11 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the rest of the Week 11 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5) O/U 41.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
This game is just ugly. I don’t want to touch this from a betting angle, and even fantasy is hit or miss. Russell Wilson and Derek Carr have been disappointments, and Denver will be without Jerry Jeudy this week.
Courtland Sutton has a great opportunity, but he has finished as the WR68, WR67, WR76, and WR32 over his last four games. He saw 11 targets (26.9%) but has done little to give managers any level of confidence in this passing attack.
Las Vegas is a bit more interesting. Josh Jacobs is the RB6 and is averaging 21.1 touches and 113.4 total yards, and the last time these teams played (Week 4), Jacobs had 175 total yards and two scores.
He’s looking to make it three in a row vs. DEN with 125+ rushing yards and has 719 scrimmage yards (119.8 per game) and nine rush TDs in six career games against the Broncos. However, last week, Denver held Derick Henry to sub-55 yards, only the second time this decade that someone has accomplished that feat. Still, Jacobs is a low-end RB1 this week.
As for the Week 11 weather forecast in Denver, expect sunny skies and 48-degree temperatures with 7 mph winds.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 40.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Last time out, Joe Mixon had a historic day. The former Sooner had 221 total scrimmage yards (153 rush and 58 receiving) and five touchdowns (four rush & one receiving) in Week 9, becoming the sixth player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ scrimmage yards and five TDs in a single game.
In his last three meetings with the Steelers, Mixon has 402 scrimmage yards (134 yards per game) and two rushing scores and aims to make it three in a row with 140+ scrimmage yards. He’s a top-five RB for Week 11 rankings.
The same can’t be said for Najee Harris. While Harris did have his best game of the season in Week 10, he’s yet to cross triple-digits on the ground and has watched his target volume fall by the wayside (9.3%).
He is reportedly dealing with some knee discomfort, and the increased role and efficiency of Jaylen Warren has me wanting to sit Harris, if at all possible, in Week 11. The matchup is great against the Bengals, but I am worried this offense can’t capitalize on it the way a good team should.
Pittsburgh’s Week 11 weather forecast should feature 28-degree temperatures that will feel closer to 18, sunny skies, and six to eight mph winds. There is a chance for 20 mph gusts, but they should clear by kickoff.
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 43.5 | 8:15 p.m. ET in Mexico City
We are just over 24 hours until kickoff, and we have no idea who will be playing QB for the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray missed last week’s game due to a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Backup QB Colt McCoy, who received the start last week, is finally off the injury report (knee), but the team has yet to make a public decision.
We also are not sure if Marquise Brown will return from IR in time for Monday Night Football. This is a long-winded way of saying you need to check the news as late as possible before making lineup decisions.
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One person we did see make his return recently was James Conner, who wasted no time getting into the action last week, accounting for 24 touches with 86 total yards and two scores on 94% of the snaps. Unfortunately, the 49ers are a matchup nightmare across the board and sit fourth in yards and 13th in EPA since Week 5. Conner is still a must-start when healthy.
As for the 49ers, start them. It’s really that simple. Jimmy Garoppolo is a high-end QB2, both Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell should have good days against the 30th-ranked rush DVOA defense, and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle should wrack up stats through the air. No need to overthink this one for fantasy purposes.
Expect 77-degree temperatures, six mph winds, and partly cloudy skies in Mexico City for Week 11.
Indoor Games in Week 11
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, it’ll be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
O/U 49.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
O/U 49.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans
O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
O/U 39.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
O/U 48.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET - Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 51.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Teams On a Bye in Week 11
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Miami Dolphins
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers