Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton, 30, is No. 32 in PFSN’s WR Impact Score. For reference, there are 96 starting caliber receivers in the NFL because most offenses play out of 11 personnel more than 50% of the time. Sutton, meanwhile, totals 45 receptions on 74 targets for 649 yards and four touchdowns. That said, he is averaging 59 yards per game. That’s below the 65-yard per-game clip that’ll get players to 1,100-plus scrimmage yards a season. More on that below.
How the Broncos Are Winning Without a No. 1 WR
A good game by a player is 65 scrimmage yards. In a 16-game season, that was 1,040 scrimmage yards. Elite players, though, total 75-plus scrimmage yards. That is 1,200-plus scrimmage yards. So, with an extra game, 1,000 scrimmage yards isn’t impressive. That’s roughly 60 yards per game. Enter Sutton. Circling back, he’s averaging 59 yards per game. That’s a pace of 1,003 yards in 17 games.
So, how are the Broncos on an eight-game winning streak? Enter slot WR Troy Franklin. Since Week 7 — the last five games — he has stepped up. This is in the fourth game of the eight-game winning streak as well. Franklin has 45 targets in that span, and Week 7 was his first double-digit target game. He paid off the opportunity with a 10-3-19-1 stat line. The second-half touchdown was the first domino to fall for Franklin’s Year 2 breakout.
In Week 8, he totaled an 8-6-89-2 stat line. That’s three touchdowns in two games. Franklin’s Week 9-11 stat lines are below.
Week 9: 10-4-27
Week 10: 9-5-40-1
Week 11: 8-4-84
For reference, that’s a 51.8 yards-per-game clip. That said, Franklin’s breakout started in the second half of Week 7 with a rickashay touchdown. In fact, he’s totaled 80-plus yards in two of the past five games, with four touchdowns in that span. So, basically, Franklin’s last five games end after the first half of Week 13. I wonder what he does this week. In other words, Franklin totaled over 80 yards in two of the past four full games, with three touchdowns. There’s still meat on the bone.
In the past four games, Franklin has averaged 60 yards per game. And still in Year 2, he’s still ascending. Buy low in fantasy football. Because of this five-game stretch, Franklin leads the Broncos in targets by seven with 81. In fact, he has one more reception than Sutton for a team-high 46, although the latter leads the team in receiving yards with 649. Franklin leads the team in touchdowns with five as well.
A rare explosive slot WR, Franklin leads the Broncos’ offense with 224 yards after catch. Franklin isn’t a No. 1 WR, but he’s how the Broncos are winning without one. In the same sample size, Sutton has 34 targets. He’s parlayed the opportunity into 18 receptions for 267 yards (53.4 yards per game) and a touchdown. The two wide receivers are working in tandem.
Franklin is No. 14 in ADOT with a 14.1 clip, while Sutton is No. 37 with a 12.3 clip. The former’s yards after catch is No. 17, while the latter’s is No. 36. So, Franklin is working deep in the middle of the field and getting yards after the catch. Most slot WRs don’t work as deep in the middle of the field as Franklin. For reference, within the AFC West division, slot WR Rashee Rice’s ADOT is 4.9. Tyler Lockett’s ADOT is 7.9. And Ladd McConkey’s ADOT is 8.9.
It remains to be seen if the Broncos acquire a wide receiver in the offseason, but it would be the perfect move. Franklin, in the slot, next to an explosive No. 1, lifts the ceiling of the offense. A rising tide lifts all ships. Then Sutton, in 11 personnel, would start at the boundary Z slot. Pat Bryant, and his 42% of the offensive snaps, would mix in as well. That said, Marvin Mims Jr. may be the odd man out.
So, Franklin and Sutton, working in tandem, in addition to the No. 10 rushing offense, are pairing nicely with the Broncos’ defense — No. 1 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score. For reference, Franklin is No. 35 in PFSN’s WR Impact Score.
Why is there still meat on the bone? The Broncos have subtly shifted to pass-first since Week 9, with 35-plus pass attempts in two of the past three games, regardless of game script. This was before running back J.K. Dobbins’ injury, which only doubles down on the shift.
The Broncos play the Washington Commanders in Week 13. All eyes will be on Franklin. With six games left in the regular season, he has time to eat the rest of the meat on the bone. In Franklin we trust.
