With a win against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, the Broncos have all but guaranteed winning the AFC title. For reference, PFSN Analytics has the Broncos favored in four of their last six games with at least 64% odds. The other two games are coin flips at under 60% odds, but the Broncos are favored in every game the rest of the season. The question becomes how deep Denver’s playoff run can be.
Looking at How Deep the Broncos’ Playoff Run Can Be
A conservative estimate is that the Broncos finish 13-4. That said, the Broncos have to fend off the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts for the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference. Both teams have two losses. To know how deep the Broncos’ playoff run can be, we have to know who they’ll open up the playoffs against. Sports Illustrated‘s Albert Breer, though, is bullish on the Broncos before knowing so.
“This looks like a team that’s very much on the precipice of a real run in the playoffs. And people are so focused on the quarterback, but there’s more to it than just that. It’s a defense that’s playing out of this world right now. And they’re doing it without (cornerback) Patrick Surtain, one of the best players in the league at any position. The young quarterback is performing well in the biggest moments. … Looks like they are trending towards winning the AFC West.”
Circling back to the Patriots, New England plays the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins to close out the season.
And the Colts, meanwhile, play the Chiefs, the Texans, the Jaguars, the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Jaguars, and the Texans to close out the season.
Realistically, though, the Patriots can lose to the Bills and the Ravens. That would put them at 13-4. The Colts, meanwhile, can lose to the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Jaguars. That would put them at 12-5. And if only the Broncos and Patriots tie at the end of the season, the Broncos would be the No. 1 seed.
For this exercise, let’s say the wildcard teams stay the same. So, that puts the Broncos vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second round of the playoffs.
The Steelers struggle against the pass, as they allow the most passing yards per game to opposing offenses. That said, Nix is coming off a 295-yard performance, and it looks like the Broncos are subtly shifting to a pass-first offense with 35-plus pass attempts in two of their past three games against stout defenses.
The Broncos, meanwhile, allow the fifth-fewest passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. Early indications are that the Broncos should be able to air it out against the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense is No. 13 in rushing yards per game allowed to offenses as well. That would put the Broncos against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.
The Patriots, meanwhile, allow the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, while the Broncos total the 11th-most rushing yards per game. It’s going to be strength on strength, although the Broncos are missing running back J.K. Dobbins. The Patriots, though, are No. 16 in passing yards per game allowed to opposing offenses.
So, the matchup between the Patriots is going to come down to the maturation of Nix before then. He has six regular-season games to find consistency before the playoffs begin. If so, the Broncos can get to the Super Bowl. But if not, it looks like an AFC Championship appearance is the worst the Broncos’ season will turn out. That’s a deep playoff run for a Year 2 quarterback.