Fresh off a bye, the Denver Broncos play the Washington Commanders in Week 13. The Broncos downed the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19 in Week 11. As of this writing, though, the Broncos are No. 15 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score, while the Commanders are No. 11. And the Broncos are No. 1 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score, while the Commanders are No. 30. Let’s look at the keys to the game.
The Broncos Win if Bo Nix Totals 200-Plus Yards and a 100-Plus Passer Rating
Speaking of the Commanders being No. 30 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score, Washington is allowing the second-most yards per game, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the sixth-most rushing yards per game. Nix won’t need to do much, though. But he can’t play with his food. A solid stat line of 200-plus passing yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions on 30-ish passing attempts should seal it.
Nix has come close to this feat three times this season. In Week 2, in Week 4, and in Week 8.
Week 2: 22-of-30 for 206 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a 111.2 passer rating.
Week 4: 29-of-42 for 326 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a 97.9 passer rating.
Week 8: 19-of-29 for 247 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a 117.4 passer rating.
The Broncos Lose if the Defense Doesn’t Contain the Run Game
The Broncos’ defense allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game, while the Commanders total the sixth-most rushing yards per game. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. In a passing league, though, offense beats defense. That said, a lot of this matchup hinges on the availability of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.
As of this writing, though, we are anticipating Daniels to get medically cleared. That’s why Nix can’t play with his food. If the Broncos’ defense shuts down the run game, the Commanders’ offense totals the ninth-fewest passing yards per game — and Pat Surtain II should be back.
The Broncos’ defense is No. 8 in run stop win rate, while the Commanders’ offense is No. 14 in run block win rate. Interior defensive linemen D.J. Jones may get more snaps than usual this week as well to help stop the run. He’s played on 44% of the defensive snaps this season. So, that means more 3-4 base personnel and penny in Week 13 as opposed to nickel and dime. The Broncos will have to look out for play-action out of 12 and 13 personnel, though.
Prediction: Broncos 30–19
