The NFL is one of, if not the most efficient markets in sports betting. That said, with such high levels of interest, sportsbooks offer a massive menu of markets in addition to traditional Week 4 lines, giving the detail-oriented bettor the ability to carve out value if they are willing to dig.
You might not be willing to do that leg work, but I am, and you can benefit. So … what are you waiting for?
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Props
This has the potential to be a very interesting game.
Or it might be predictable. Saquon Barkley is pacing for 2,290 yards of offense this season and, as a part of a banged-up offense, faces a once stout run defense that currently ranks 30th in rush EPA (expected points added) through three weeks. Would it surprise anyone if this is a 30-touch, low-possession Eagles domination?
That’s one way to put us in a good position with this bet, though it’s not what I’m banking on. What I am counting on is consistency.
Per the Week 4 start ‘em sit ‘em special, Cade Otton’s 91.5% snap share this season is the highest since … well, since Otton last year (96.3%). That sounds great until you look at his season box score and realize that eight catches for 52 yards is his running total, not a single game.
Otton simply isn’t a part of this offense when it comes to moving the ball. Even last week, when he was, it was more as a safety valve than an actual threat.
Of my three listed picks, this is the one that “feels” the most right, but let’s take a look at the metrics to avoid making a bet without numerical support.
For his career, Otton, in 36 games and 1,117 routes, has 16 catches gaining at least 14 yards. That figure by itself is alarming, and this specific matchup does him no favors.
PFN Insights: NFL Week 4 Matchup Overviews, Insights, and Information
Of those 16 grabs, 10 have come 11+ yards downfield. That’s not surprising, but what might catch you off guard is that only 2.7% of completions against the Eagles since the start of 2023 have been by tight ends 11+ yards down the field, the third lowest rate in the NFL.
Cade Otton's "big" play chart for his career.
Exciting stuff.
But it can be profitable if you spin it into a Week 4 #NFL bet … check back tomorrow for how I'm using this chart to make money! pic.twitter.com/oBZ1NwMoeR
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 28, 2024
As you can see, Otton’s 14+ yard gains have either come down the middle-ish of the field or on quick horizontal passes. Well, since 2023, the Eagles are an above-average defense at limiting tight ends in yards after the catch and rank sixth best in terms of opponent completion percentage between the hashes.
I mentioned off the top that Philadelphia could control this time of possession battle and thus bleed the number of opportunities Tampa Bay gets with the ball. The Bucs might opt to make this a low-possession affair, using their offense (fifth slowest through three weeks) as their best way to defend Jalen Hurts.
Any game has the potential to be a low-volume contest for Otton, and this one carries even more risk. We had the rare high-opportunity game for Tampa’s tight end last week — and this prop still would have cashed.
- Pick: Cade Otton longest reception under 13.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Props
Last season, when these teams squared off, chaos was the name of the game. It was a matchup of two of the six blitz-happiest defenses in the league.
That is unlikely to be the case this time around — Jeff Hafley has taken over this Packers defense ranking 24th in blitz rate. No such change has happened for the Vikings (second in blitz rate), and I doubt it does today with Jordan Love returning to action after consecutive DNPs.
Perfect!
Hang with me here. Since the beginning of last season, Justin Jefferson has seen one-third of the targets when his quarterback is blitzed (and forced into quick decision spots), a rate that falls to 24.4% when the defense doesn’t bring an additional defender.
If you want to shrink the sample only to include Sam Darnold’s run this season, we’re looking at a 41.7% on-field target share when his QB blitzed and 23.2% when not.
Interesting. Jordan Addison is back, and the Packers’ defense, under Hafley, ranks ninth in pass EPA this season (21st last year).
There are two sides to my prop bet, and the other carries just as much optimism, if not more. Since the beginning of last season, Jayden Reed has been targeted 26.3% of the time when Love is blitzed, a slight boost from his 24.6% otherwise.
Let’s keep digging.
The high blitz rate leaves the Vikes open for quick passes if the quarterback can make the proper reads. Those fast reads tend to go to the slot in catch-and-run spots — exactly what a Reed backer wants.
Minnesota vs. Slot Since 2023
- 77.6% complete (highest in the NFL)
- 6.7 aDOT (lowest in the NFL)
Reed has accounted for 39.4% of Love’s slot targets since the beginning of last season, averaging 11.1 yards per slot target (all other Packers: 8.8). Over that stretch, the Vikings allow the 10th-most yards after the catch per reception to receivers, putting a player like Reed in position to be a difference-maker.
This season, 51.6% of Jefferson’s yards have come on two plays, both on passes that traveled 35+ yards in the air. His other 79 yards have netted just 132 yards.
Those big plays count, but they might be tough to pencil in against a Packers defense that has twice as many interceptions (four) as completions allowed (two) on balls thrown 20+ yards down field this season.
- Pick: Jayden Reed (+30.5 yards, -115) over Justin Jefferson
Week 4 Target Game: Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers threw his first NFL pass on Oct. 9, 2005. On that day, Bo Nix was still 4.5 months away from celebrating his sixth birthday. It’s safe to say that these quarterbacks were raised in different eras, and their approach to the game reflects as much.
We know what Rodgers brings to the table, which makes his props difficult to find an edge on. Nix, however, offers the sort of volatility that is hard for sportsbooks to fully gauge, and that is why I spent time evaluating his markets.
The Jets are the second-best blitzing team in the NFL, creating pressure 55.6% of the time when bringing the heat — something I expect plenty of with the inconsistent Nix under center. If we can take a high-pressure rate as a given, there’s an angle to take here with confidence.
Through three games, Nix has shown the ability to make plays at times, but the processing speed isn’t quite there yet. Of 31 qualifiers, the rookie ranks 20th in quick pass rate. When he does commit to the fast release, it hasn’t exactly gone well (27th in yards per such attempt).
Supporting the thought that Nix’s processing speed is a tick slow thus far are his out-of-pocket numbers. For an athletic QB, you’d expect him to thrive in these spots, as the defense is in scramble mode and trying to limit the damage (Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Justin Fields are among the out-of-pocket YPA leaders this season).
Not so much.
Nix ranks 26th in completion percentage and 29th in YPA during these hair-on-fire situations. We already established that a high-pressure game is likely to be in store, and if Denver is playing catch up (something that is expected via an eight-point spread), isn’t it likely that Nix defaults to what has worked for him in spurts this season?
Nix averages 42.3 dropbacks per game this season (third most) and is live to lead the league in them this week with the two QBs ahead of him (Deshaun Watson and Caleb Williams) favored in their respective games. Nix is averaging six rush attempts per game up to this point, which is on the low end of my expectations in this specific spot.
- Pick: Bo Nix over 5.5 rush attempts (-110 at DraftKings)
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.