Soppe’s Week 4 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready. This piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Falcons -2
• Total: 42.5
• Saints implied points: 20.3
• Falcons implied points: 22.3

Derek Carr Fantasy Outlook

Carr was a top-five fantasy QB in the first two weeks this season, but he had no answer for the Eagles last week (142 pass yards with a touchdown and an interception) as the league’s longest multi-pass-touchdown streak came to a screeching halt.

The concerns around Carr are simple and predictable: he doesn’t run and relies on efficiency. He has just 44 completions this season and, more often than not, a lack of volume like that will come up short for an immobile option.

The Falcons rank 26th in defensive success rate (for reference, the Panthers rank ahead of them), and that has me thinking that Carr can bounce back despite not having a touchdown in any of his last 71 throws as the road team playing indoors.

Weird facts like that are made to be broken. Look for the Saints to rely on the pass against the ninth-best defense against the run in terms of yards per carry, putting Carr back in the QB1 range. I have him ranked above both quarterbacks in the Vikings/Packers game this week.

Kirk Cousins Fantasy Outlook

Slowly but surely. After a rough debut as a Falcon, Cousins has shown signs over the past two weeks that suggest he could be one of the few pocket passers on the QB1 radar with time.

The veteran has completed 69% of his passes in consecutive games, and the wrinkle that caught my eye most was the cadence of this offense. Through two weeks, Cousins had a 60.7% quick-pass rate (the regularity in which he releases the ball faster than the league average) – that number jumped to 75.9% against the Chiefs last week. Given the talents on this Atlanta offense, if that is a sustained trend, Cousins’ chances of offering a viable fantasy floor increase in a major way.

He’s locked to the pocket more than ever and that’s why he still sits outside of my top 15 at the end of the day. This season, just 7.1% of his pass attempts have come outside of the pocket, a low rate even by his standards (2023: 9.3%). The Saints are a slow offense (31st in pace) and a strong defense (sixth in success rate), making them about as bad of a matchup as you can get for a one-dimensional player like Cousins.

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Outlook

Seven points in the passing game save Kamara last week against the Eagles, a game in which his 26 carries picked up just 87 yards (3.3 yards per carry). I think we see more inefficient efforts like that as the season wears on, but if New Orleans is going to use him like a true workhorse, it may not matter (71 touches this season).

In Week 3, the Saints’ first drive featured eight Kamara touches. It’s him and Saquon Barkley when it comes to the running backs with 100 scrimmage yards in all three weeks this season – is his current form enough to overcome historical struggles in this spot?

Kamara has been held under 12 PPR fantasy points in three straight games against the Falcons (30.3% below expectation in those games). Atlanta’s success at slowing him down, and my underwhelming projection of his efficiency, has him ranked lower for me than most, but he remains a starter in all season-long formats (I’ll be fading in DFS).

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Outlook

Nothing to see here — Robinson is among the very elite at the position and should see his value rise as Cousins settles in.

He had no issues with the Saints last season, clearing 120 yards from scrimmage in both meetings, scoring three times, and earning 14 targets in the process. Robinson is matchup-proof and worthy of your DFS consideration every single time he steps onto a football field. He’s my RB2 this week and moving forward, trailing only Saquon Barkley.

Tyler Allgeier Fantasy Outlook

As this offense grows and develops, Allgeier’s role as a handcuff will remain, but it seems unlikely that he will ever hold stand-alone value barring an injury to Robinson. The six red-zone touches are nice, but with a sub-23% snap rate in all three contests this season, there simply isn’t a path to Flex value in even the deepest of leagues.

Chris Olave Fantasy Outlook

Week 3 was nice, and I’m tempted to think that it was the calm before the storm. He had a highlight-reel toe-drag touchdown in the fourth quarter, saving what should have been an incompletion. And as impressive as that was, it was third on my list of takeaways from Week 3 for him.

I loved the fact that he recorded New Orleans’ first two receptions against the Eagles and that he had three third-down receptions, two more than he had through two weeks. If Carr is going to treat him like the alpha I believe him to be, those are the first steps.

Olave has exactly nine targets in each of his past three games as a road, dome team, including a 7-114-0 line in the Georgia Dome in Week 12 of last season. In that contest, he posted a 29.2% reception share and totaled more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined.

Rashid Shaheed is a good player, and Kamara still has more juice in the tank than I gave him credit for, but Olave projects as the center of the offensive universe in New Orleans — I suspect we see that prove to be the case more often than not in rather short order.

Rashid Shaheed Fantasy Outlook

The NFL is a game of inches for everyone, but the tight-rope walk gets even harder with a player like Shaheed. Now, I do believe he has the potential to be more than a one-trick pony, but for now, his role is as a vertical specialist. That route tree, even for someone who possesses the physical tools to make it work, comes with weekly variance, something that we saw in full effect last week.

Five targets, zero receptions.

The goose egg likely destroyed your fantasy matchup, but he had an 11-point play on his chest that ended up hitting the turf.

A game of inches.

If he hauls that in, we continue to trip over ourselves in praising him and love this matchup on a fast track with Olave potentially being shadowed. Instead, the questions I’ve been getting around his lineup status fall in the Calvin Ridley/Brian Thomas Jr. range.

I prefer him to both of those options and have him ranked as a plenty viable Flex option across all formats, you just need to know that a wide range of outcomes is always in play for this sort of skill set.

Drake London Fantasy Outlook

Don’t look now, but that’s back-to-back top-20 finishes at the position for London, putting him one such performance away from matching his 2023 total. He’s the clear-cut WR1 in this offense, and I think the sneaky play of Darnell Mooney actually could pay major dividends long-term – Mooney isn’t a threat to earn targets at a high level but can draw defensive attention away from London if he continues to make big plays.

The Saints have allowed a 60+ yard completion in consecutive weeks, showing the propensity to miss tackles and miscommunicate at times. If they misstep this week, Cousins will hit his WR1 at least six times for a third straight week and land him as a rock-solid top-20 option in all scoring formats.

Darnell Mooney Fantasy Outlook

That’s back-to-back productive games for Mooney, a receiver we all dismissed after a pair of underwhelming seasons in Chicago that saw him total 71 catches and three scores over the course of 27 games.

I’m not confident that Mooney will offer consistent Flex value, but it is clear that he fits a niche in this offense that appears to have turned a bit of a corner after a rough first seven quarters to kick off the Kirk Cousins era.

Adam Thielen is a completely different receiver than Mooney, but he was the WR2 for Cousins’ final two healthy seasons in Minnesota – he averaged 48.1 yards per game with 16 scores in 30 games. Could Mooney be on a trajectory that looks something like that?

I’m not ranking him as a Flex option in this tough matchup, but if he can sustain this momentum, nothing over the next month scares me, and with byes weeks on the horizon, he figures to be in the mix for a starting spot in most leagues.

Week 5 vs. Buccaneers
Week 6 at Panthers
Week 7 vs. Seahawks
Week 8 at Buccaneers

I was too low on Mooney this preseason — there’s never a wrong time to do that right thing. His usage in the first three games of his tenure in Atlanta deserves our attention.

Taysom Hill Fantasy Outlook

The versatile weapon suffered a chest injury in Week 2 and was a weekend downgrade before ultimately sitting out last week. Entering this season, Hill was a popular late-round flier due to his ability to put defenses in a bind, but considering that this team put 91 points on the board in his two games, there really hasn’t been the need for extended creativity (10 touches for 55 yards and zero touchdowns).

That said, he’s been involved against the Falcons in the past. If he is in fact cleared, he will once again be on the streaming radar for those attempting to piece the position together.

Last four games vs. Atlanta

• 79 scrimmage yards (10 touches)
• 91 scrimmage yards (nine touches)
• 30 scrimmage yards (seven touches)
• 83 scrimmage yards, TD (five touches)

Kyle Pitts Fantasy Outlook

Just when you thought the curious case of Kyle Pitts couldn’t get any more Pitts-ian, we have three data points this season that point in opposing directions.

On one hand, Pitts’ snap rate is on the decline. He opened the season by playing 96% of the snaps against the Steelers, but that rate dipped to 72.4% in Week 2 and again in Week 3 to 67.9%. So, they are out on him, right?

Maybe. Maybe not. His on-field target share over those three weeks is trending up – 10.7% in Week 1, 15.4% in Week 2, and 18.5% last week in the loss to the Chiefs.

Are they simply trimming the fat and only putting him out there when they have their eyes on getting him involved? In theory, that’s fine, but without deception, I fear that defenses pick up on this (if a dumb researcher can, why can’t billion-dollar franchises).

The matchup isn’t confusing — it’s less than ideal. Pitts is just one of four players to see an end-zone target in all three weeks this season, something that would give him scoring equity in most spots, but New Orleans has been great at defending dangerous passes (they have as many red-zone catches from opposing quarterbacks as they’ve allowed).

For his career (five games), Pitts has been miserable against the Saints:

• 128 routes run
• 24 targets
• 11 catches
• 138 yards
• Zero touchdowns

He’s been held under 5.0 PPR points in each of his last four games against the divisional rival. Pitts sneaks into my top 10 at the position, but that’s more a damnation of the position than true optimism for the player himself.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

• Spread: Bears -3
• Total: 41
• Rams implied points: 19
• Bears implied points: 22

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Outlook

The day will come in which I create a stat that embodies grit, know-how, and discipline — it’ll be named after Stafford. He’s not putting up big numbers and is deserving off of fantasy radars, but if a coin flip goes differently, he could have this battered Rams team at 2-1 with wins over San Francisco and Detroit.

As usual, Stafford is making the most of what he has. Given the players at his disposal right now, that’s not enough to make it matter for us, but his experience gives the pieces tied to him a chance. This season, on balls thrown less than 10 yards, Stafford is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, his highest rate since 2015.

I’ll never get sick of watching Stafford, even if my fantasy team doesn’t benefit in any way.

Caleb Williams Fantasy Outlook

We can agree that the future is bright for Williams and that the future isn’t right now, right? The rookie has yet to earn a grade higher than a ‘D’ on our weekly ranking process, something that tracks if you’ve seen any of Chicago’s games.

If you’re scanning box scores, his 363 yards and two scores last week in Indy might stand out, but be careful. There were some very low-percentage passes completed in that game, led by a Hail Mary at the end of the first half that DJ Moore hauled in off of a deflection at the 1-yard line.

There will be moments in which Williams shines this season. Heck, I don’t doubt there will be moments this week against the second-worst defensive unit by EPA through three weeks. It just seems like the game is currently moving too fast for him, and I’m not taking on a head coach who, if nothing else, is a master planner.

Sean McVay has six career games against a rookie, first-round quarterback. He’s won five of those contests, and the opposing signal-caller has completed just 55.2% of his passes (5.8 yards per attempt) with a 74.7 passer rating.

It’s going to take a lot more than that to impact our fantasy sphere this weekend, and I don’t think this version of Williams is up to the challenge.

Kyren Williams Fantasy Outlook

Williams doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 15 yards this season. Yet, thanks to volume and a nose for the end zone, he’s been a top-20 running back all three weeks.

The Bears defense is one of the best in the league and could limit Williams’ efficiency, but that hasn’t been a problem for him up to this point. I’m more encouraged by his icing of <strong>Blake Corum</strong> with 21 touches per game than I am worried about his 3.0 yards per carry average.

Williams is a low-end RB1 for me in a game that I expect to be competitive, thus fueling another impressive touch count for Los Angeles’ RB1.

D’Andre Swift Fantasy Outlook

Swift has one of the lowest success rates in the league despite a low loaded-box rate, two metrics that are supposed to be inversely correlated. He’s yet to clear 30 rushing yards in a game this season and has been the worst fantasy option at the position among regular starters when it comes to living up to expectations.

By now, you’ve seen the viral clip with all of the Chicago linemen on the ground as Swift fights for his life – why would we expect that to change any time soon? The Rams’ run defense has been spotty at best this season, but they are an above-average unit at making contact in short order — that is where this Bears’ line struggles.

Just an incredible photo. Four linemen laying on the ground and the only one standing (and starting for first time) has already let their blocker by. pic.twitter.com/VHJaYq6onV

— Bears History (@ChiBearsHistory) September 23, 2024

I’d rather play Chuba Hubbard (vs. CIN) or Carson Steele (at LAC) this week if you have the opportunity.

Demarcus Robinson Fantasy Outlook

Robinson has seemingly distanced himself from the pack in Los Angeles, as he logged a 90% snap share in consecutive weeks. Of course, the value of that role is in question with Stafford determined to spread the ball around to keep defenses guessing.

If I had to take a chance on a receiver in this offense, it would be Robinson, but it’s simply a bet on playing time. I don’t have any confidence in this passing game in any matchup right now, let alone EPA’s third-best defense since the midway point of last season.

Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell Fantasy Outlooks

Atwell made the big play last week (50-yard gain) and has seven catches over the past two weeks after being a no-show in the season opener when this roster was near full strength; meanwhile, Johnson has a pair of end-zone looks and has more receptions (10) than Atwell has targets (nine) this season.

If you’re playing in an ultra-deep league, I want the more physically gifted Johnson (four-inch height edge). However, this game profiles as a Kyren Williams special. If that’s the case, it’s very possible that this offense doesn’t produce a top-35 receiver this weekend.

DJ Moore Fantasy Outlook

It’s awfully risky to label any Bear as a lineup lock these days, but I’m cautiously giving Moore that distinction in this spot.

I understand that the aforementioned Hail Mary inflated his stats last week, but the fact of the matter is that he’s been a top-35 performer at the position in all three weeks this season despite Williams’ inconsistencies.

When it comes to this specific matchup, it’s a spreadsheet special. Moore has caught 16 of 22 perimeter targets for 147 yards this season – all other Bears have turned 20 such targets into 12 catches for 147 yards. He’s carved out that role in this offense, and it’s been taking candy from a baby when throwing that way against the Rams.

No, even better. It’s taking candy from a vacated house on Halloween. You know one of those families that either has better things to do on Oct. 31 or is just far too trusting and leaves a basket of Reese’s (objectively the 1.01 in the candy power rankings) out on the stoop with a “Please Take One” sign.

Opponents have completed 28 of 41 passes out wide against Los Angeles for 531 yards and five scores, resulting in a near-perfect passer rating of 150.7.

Williams is far from perfect, but I trust him (and this coaching staff) enough to pick at this scab on a consistent basis and allow Moore to produce a third straight top-25 finish at the position.

Keenan Allen Fantasy Outlook

A heel ailment has sidelined Allen for consecutive games, and safe money would bet on him being very limited this week if not miss another contest. The 32-year-old now has 13 DNPs on his ledger since the beginning of 2022, and with Williams experiencing growing pains, I don’t really care if Allen is active or not – he’s not landing a spot inside of my top 40 at the position until I see some semblance of either offensive stability or full health.

If I see both, maybe there will be PPR value to extract here from a proven target earner, but I’d rather be late to this party than early.

Rome Odunze Fantasy Outlook

We saw some flickers last week from Odunze as he hauled in a 47-yard dime from Williams and made a pretty touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. He’s not on the level of Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr., but there is a lot in his prospect profile to like. I don’t think Week 3 will be the last time we catch glimpses of it.

That said, I have a hard time thinking he gives us anything close to reliable production in the short-term. If you want to get creative with a DFS lineup and Allen is ruled out ahead of time, be my guest, but from a season-long standpoint, I still need to see more from the rookie before considering him as a viable Flex option.

Colby Parkinson Fantasy Outlook

Parkinson has cleared an 80% snap share in all three games this season. While 12 earned targets is a starting point, 16 PPR fantasy points aren’t enough for me to feel great about streaming him against what is moving in the direction of a top-five defense.

The big tight end saw his slot usage move in the right direction last week (20.4% of snaps), and that’s his path to mattering as this team looks to iron out its target hierarchy … but not yet. I’m targeting offenses with a higher implied total if I’m piecing together the TE position this week.

Cole Kmet Fantasy Outlook

I mentioned how vulnerable the Rams are on the perimeter, and I think that is where Chicago schemes up its pass game. That adds upside to most of its weapons, but not Kmet – 60% of his receptions this season have come in the slot, an area in which Los Angeles is much more neutral.

The massive Week 3 (10-97-1) was great to see from Kmet, and it drove his ownership up in a significant way. I’m still not sold that he is better off this week (or moving forward) than any of the options currently sitting on your wire.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -2.5
• Total: 43.5
• Vikings implied points: 20.5
• Packers implied points: 23

Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook

Where do impressive and regression metrics intersect? We are getting close to finding out.

Darnold, when blitzed

• 2024: 83.3% completion, 15.8 yards per attempt, and 158.3 passer rating
• Career beforehand: 59.4% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt, and 75.3 passer rating

For me, that’s more of a story-telling stat than a predictive one, but it speaks to the comfort Darnold has in this system already, something you’d expect to only improve with time.

Speaking of that Kevin O’Connell gameplan, he had his starting QB once against the Packers last season. Kirk Cousins posted his best QBR of the season on the back of completing 23 of 31 passes for 274 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

This Packer defense, however, is different. I’m not sure they are much better, but they certainly are less aggressive. and that is troubling for those counting on Darnold. In 2023, Green Bay brought an extra defender on 31.5% of opponent dropbacks; with Jeff Hafley at the controls this season, that rate is down to 21.2%.

Both quarterbacks in this game rank in that fringe-QB1 tier, alongside the athletically gifted but otherwise flawed signal callers in the Colts/Steelers contest.

Jordan Love Fantasy Outlook

It was no secret that Love (knee) was a long shot to play last week, and while he took the field to warm up pre-game, he was ultimately ruled inactive with the team being given a little leeway thanks to its Week 2 upset of the Colts.

There are still boxes to check, but the tea leaves last week seemed to be pointing toward a Week 4 return for this divisional showdown. Of course, his status remains deserving of attention, but entering this week with the expectation to have your QB1 back is plenty reasonable.

Love sits just outside of my top 12 at the position this week, but that’s more the result of some plus-matchups for the signal callers in his vicinity (namely Joe Burrow in Carolina and Jayden Daniels in Arizona). Love picked apart this Vikings defense on the road in Week 17 last season by completing 24 of 33 passes for 256 yards and three scores, a ceiling that is certainly there in his return to action.

In that performance, Love had no issue with Minnesota’s high-pressure defense, as he completed 13 of 19 passes against the blitz, racking up 135 yards and a touchdown on those passes. Could he be a little slow on the trigger in his return? Could the Vikings back off a bit, thus capping Love’s per-throw upside?

There are enough concerns to justify taking it slow with welcoming Love back into your fantasy lineup, but if you’ve been getting by with a fringe QB (former NFC Northers like Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins come to mind), you should be comfortable plugging Love into your lineup for his first game played in the United States this season.

Aaron Jones Fantasy Outlook

Jones is coming off his best game as a Viking (148 scrimmage yards and a touchdown) ahead of his first revenge game. Last week could have been even better if not for a shoe-string tackle that stopped what could have been a long score.

Jones is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and three catches per game on his way to returning starting value in all three weeks this season. I still have my long-term concerns around Jones, but with Darnold keeping defenses honest and the Vikings likely to aim to keep Love off the field, I’m penciling in Jones to continue his strong start against his former employer.

Ty Chandler Fantasy Outlook

Chandler needs to be rostered but not played.

Yes, that’s annoying, but Minnesota seems to be giving Jones every chance to succeed before giving Chandler a chance to produce. I think he’s a decent player and would crack my top 20 if something were to happen to Jones, but until then, he’s nothing more than an upside stash.

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook

The first two weeks of the season were glorious for those with Jacobs rostered in terms of efficiency, but Week 3 was a hard dose of reality (15 touches for 48 yards and no touchdowns). Of course, part of his struggles was the duality of Malik Willis (73 rush yards and a touchdown), which won’t be nearly as impactful with Love under center.

That said, the emergence of second-year running back Emanuel Wilson was certainly noteworthy as the math behind Jacobs takes shape. Even with the high-end usage, Jacobs’ next weekly finish better than RB19 this season will be his first.

Jones helped Green Bay beat in the brains of Minnesota last winter by racking up 130 yards on 21 touches in a 23-point win. If you told me the Packers would win by 23 points in this spot, I’d tell you that Jacobs is a strong start and has the potential to reach those numbers.

I just don’t think that’s at all likely to happen, and that is why Jacobs is more of a middling RB2 than an asset I’m excited about.

Emanuel Wilson Fantasy Outlook

Wilson took a screen pass to the house last week on what was a perfect design. I remain sold that the Packers would like to spell Jacobs on occasion, and the backup role is all Wilson’s for the time being.

He’s not a must-roster player and is unlikely to hold reliable stand-alone value, but stashing him on your bench is a sharp play if you have the space – cheap exposure to an explosive offense is always a good process.

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Outlook

Jefferson is pacing for over 1,500 yards and has scored in all three Vikings games this season as he earns every penny of that record-breaking contract. Over the course of 4+ seasons in the NFL, Jefferson has slayed every dragon put in front of him and is unstoppable over a 15-minute quarter, let alone an entire game.

… except for Lambeau Field. The historic field has gotten the best of Jefferson up to this point (three games): 89 routes run, 20 targets, 10 catches, 99 yards, and zero touchdowns.

Do I think the Cheeseheads are the strongest force in the NFL and thus capable of grounding Superman?

Nope. Jefferson is an easy top-five play at the position this week and should benefit from a pace uptick on the other side with the presumptive return of Love.

Jalen Nailor Fantasy Outlook

Is this run real? I’d love to say that it is, but I’d be lying to you. “Speedy” has looked the part thus far, but turning one-third of Sam Darnold’s targets into touchdowns feels a bit unsustainable. In fact, he’s doing a good impression of what Jordan Addison did last season, and I was lining up to bet against him this season, so why would similar logic not follow here?

Nailor is roster-worthy due to his current role in an offense that is punching above its weight, but he’s not getting clicked into any starting (or DFS) lineups this week, and it’s more than just the inevitability of regression.

This season, opponents have completed just 13 of 28 passes against the Packers when Green Bay creates pressure. Their 27.5 passer rating in such instances is the third-lowest in the league; considering that Minnesota allows heat at the fifth-highest rate (40.4% of dropbacks), I’m happy to stay away from all ancillary pieces of this offense.

Jayden Reed Fantasy Outlook

We are back! With Love expected to start this week, I have zero reservations about going to Reed, a player the Packers are clearly comfortable betting on in a significant way (30-yard catch and run on the first play last week).

Deebo Samuel Sr. broke out for fantasy purposes in 2021, a season that saw him have a 70+ yard TD catch in the opener and be handed the ball multiple times in two of his first three games – Reed has checked both of those boxes this season.

He lit up the Vikings for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 17 last season and has been even more impressive through three weeks this year (77.1% production over expectation). You drafted Reed to play him. You enjoyed what you saw from him and Love in Week 1. Now plug him in and watch the points pile up!

Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson Fantasy Outlooks

Doubs entered this season as the favorite for consistent, dangerous looks, be they deep down the field or in the end zone. Well, through three weeks, Watson leads this team in both aDOT (16.0) and end-zone looks (three).

I’m not suggesting that Watson is a great play or ready to cash in on the upside we saw during his rookie campaign. I’m more suggesting that we don’t know what the receiver hierarchy looks like and we should be patient in jumping the gun.

I’m hopeful that we get clarity on where Love wants to go with the ball over the next month, but until then, it’s little more than a guessing game and you can do better when filling out your lineup.

You want to remain invested in this offense however you can (<strong>Dontayvion Wicks</strong> is still viable as well, though he’s the only member of this quartet that has produced under expectations up to this point), that remains true — you’ll just want to operate with caution before locking anyone not named “Jayden Reed” into your lineup with confidence.

Tyler Kraft Fantasy Outlook

With Love expected to return, we are back with the headache of trying to pin the tail on the Packer pass-catchers. It was less fun, but it was easier with Willis starting – we were benching everyone and waiting.

Now, we are in a spot where we are expecting this team to put points on the board, and that makes starting any of their pass-catchers moderately appealing at the very least.

Kraft turned six targets into six grabs and 48 yards against these Vikings in Week 17 last season, a positive data point, but I’m not expecting a double-digit output in this spot. Minnesota has held opponents without a completion on nine end-zone pass attempts this season, making it even more difficult to talk yourself into Kraft, thinking that a touchdown could save an otherwise underwhelming afternoon.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Spread: Steelers -1.5
• Total: 40
• Steelers implied points: 20.8
• Colts implied points:19.3

Justin Fields Fantasy Outlook

Has Arthur Smith unlocked Fields? I didn’t have that question on my September NFL Bingo card, but this league always surprises and that question holds weight after an impressive 3-0 start.

Fields has finished, with ease, inside of the top 15 at the position twice this season, and more than the fantasy point totals is the on-field progression. He showed significant growth as a passer last week on his 55-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Austin III, something that makes him a dangerous asset moving forward.

What gets overlooked by most is the advantage of playing with an elite defense. Most fantasy managers will label that as a net negative, believing that the defense can shut down potential shoot-out situations. Sure, that can happen, but assuming that’s the case is casting too wide a net.

In the case of the Steelers, Fields’ confidence in his defense allows him to feel comfortable in trying to make game-changing plays, as he understands that his teammates have his back should things go sideways. That’s a little difficult to quantify numerically, but his average depth of throw essentially doubles when he isn’t blitzed versus when he is this season. When he has the time to make decisions, he’s more comfortable in assuming some risk.

Fields has never thrown multiple touchdown passes in an indoor game, a trend that could change this week should a top-five pace team in the Colts push an otherwise slow Steelers offense. At the very least, he’s completing 73.3% of his passes this season, a rate that lines up with his completion percentage of his past three indoor games (72.3%) and creates a nice floor for a player with 28 rush attempts this season.

The ceiling isn’t as high as when he was in Chicago, but with a banged-up backfield, this is a good spot for Fields’ evolution to pay off bold fantasy managers – he’s my QB13 this week, easily the highest I’ve had him to date.

Anthony Richardson Fantasy Outlook

This is getting ugly in a hurry. Richardson threw one of the worst end-zone interceptions you’ll see last week on his way to a second straight finish outside of the top 20 performers at the position. How long ago does that QB2 finish in Week 1 feel?

I think better times are ahead, and this physical profile could result in a spike at any time, but asking him to break out of this funk against the league’s top defense in terms of first downs, touchdowns, third-down conversion rate, red-zone touchdown rate, and goal-to-go efficiency is … well … it’s a lot.

I’d cite game flow as a potential positive against an undefeated Steelers team, but Pittsburgh is operating at the fourth-slowest pace and is winning games by keeping its opponent off the field. Richardson picked up 11.6 fantasy points with his legs in Week 1, but he’s managed just 6.1 points on the ground since thanks, in large part, to a lower out-of-pocket passer rating than the recently benched Bryce Young.

If you had told me a month ago that there would be any week this season where I’d have Richardson ranked outside of my top 15 at the position, I would have said you were crazy and I would have bet the house that such an instance wouldn’t present itself before the end of September.

Well, here we are – he’s not a starter for me this week, and he’s not even my favorite option in this game at the position.

Najee Harris Fantasy Outlook

The Colts gave up over 150 rushing yards to Joe Mixon in Week 1 and Josh Jacobs in Week 2 before slowing Chicago’s excuse for a run game last week.

Yes, it’s still safe to label this as a vulnerable defense, and after Harris dominated the Week 3 usage (18-3 edge over Jaylen Warren in carries, 5-1 in targets), he’d be an RB2 this week if I was sure he was going to play.

You’re going to need to track Harris’ status – he hasn’t missed a game in his NFL career, making it very possible that he plays through the pain and into your lineup this weekend.

Jaylen Warren Fantasy Outlook

With both backs banged up, this is a situation to truly monitor as the week goes on. Harris dominated the usage last week, but Warren was on the field for the second drive, proof to me that this is more of a hot-hand situation. If both running backs are active, I’m not going to feel good about playing either of them; if both are inactive, <strong>Cordarrelle Patterson</strong> assumes a one-week, elite-streamer title.

Keep an eye on this situation — reacting properly could swing your Week 4 matchup.

Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook

Taylor’s second-quarter touchdown run last week was everything you could have asked for with cuts in both directions and explosiveness. He has both a rush and a catch gaining 18+ yards in consecutive weeks, showcasing the versatility that has made him an elite producer in the past.

This offense has plenty of issues, but JT is the fulcrum, and that keeps him locked in as an RB1 in all formats.

George Pickens Fantasy Outlook

Despite the impressive play from Fields, his presumptive WR1 has just one top-35 finish this season. The role isn’t the problem (Pickens has four more catches than any other Steeler receiver has targets), but the overall structure of the offense is.

Fields is averaging just 25 passes per game, and given that this team is hell-bent on playing slow and wearing out its opponents, I’m not sure that number moves in a big way for the remainder of this season. Pickens is, of course, capable of breaking the game open on a single play, but you could have said that about three Falcons in the Arthur Smith system last year and we were consistently left wanting more.

The undisputed role is going to land Pickens inside my top 35 just about every week, especially against a defense that doesn’t really scare me, but I can’t go much higher than that.

That may sound like a pessimistic review of a clear WR1 in an offense, but let me introduce you to his opposing number …

Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Yes, I get that he was banged up last week, but the fact that we were celebrating a 36-yard performance due to it being a season-high in yardage is a problem.

I talked about it on Monday’s PFN Fantasy Football Podcast, but this very much feels like a round-peg-square-hole situation. Nothing Pittman excels at matches up with what Richardson wants to do, and that is going to lead to an awfully low floor.

To complicate matters further, Josh Downs came back from an ankle sprain last week and earned five targets in the short-to-intermediate passing game, the land in which Pittman lives. The pie was small to begin with when it came to those chain-moving targets, and with another person pulling up a chair, I’m not sure there’s enough food at the table to make anyone happy.

Of 77 qualified receivers this season, the Colts have two of the bottom five in terms of PPR points against expectation (Pittman and Adonai Mitchell). They also happen to have the leader in that metric (Alec Pierce). If that doesn’t paint the picture of what this Colts offense is, nothing will.

Pittman has the potential to earn his way back into my lineups because of his track record when it comes to earning targets, but he is outside of my trust circle right now.

Alec Pierce Fantasy Outlook

How lucky do you feel? We are looking at the 2024 version of what Gabe Davis was for years with the Bills. I can rank him as the WR41 all I want, but we both know how most weeks will end – a top-15 performance or a WR90 airball.

There will be a point this season when you’re a big underdog or ravaged by bye weeks/injuries. That’s the time to call Pierce’s number. This season, 50% of his looks have come at least 25 yards down the field, and while Richardson has an arm cannon, the volatility of those targets is always going to be high.

The Steelers have allowed just three completions of 25+ air yards over their past 11 games, making this a spot to avoid the temptation to chase Pierce’s ceiling in all formats.

Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook

After a high ankle sprain cost him the first two weeks of this season, Downs debuted last week and promptly earned five targets on his 16 routes (2023: targeted on 20.3% of routes). That 31.3% rate was encouraging, though nothing I’ve seen from Richardson this season makes me believe it is sustainable. If you want to play 4D chess, maybe stashing Downs makes sense as you hope that Pittman gets dealt, but we are still talking about a low-ceiling player in a highly volatile offense.

Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Outlook

The rookie ran two routes in the win over the Bears on Sunday and has two receptions across his 45 routes this season. I remained intrigued in dynasty setups, but for redraft, there’s no reason to hold out hope for a consistent role with this receiver room now full.

Pat Freiermuth Fantasy Outlook

The tight end position is a matter of how you look at it. I could tell you that Freiermuth has yet to reach 40 receiving yards in a game this season. That’s a fact.

I could also tell you that he’s easily been a top-15 producer at the position in all three weeks this season. Also 100% true.

Freiermuth is the only tight end with at least four catches in each of the first three weeks this season, getting there with extreme efficiency (92.3% catch rate). He’s never going to pop in a projections system, and you might not even notice that he is on the field, but he’s a fine plug-and-play option at the position if you’ve (correctly) given up chasing upside.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

• Spread: Jets -7
• Total: 38.5
• Broncos implied points: 15.8
• Jets implied points: 22.8

Bo Nix Fantasy Outlook

I’m not sure I’ve ever been more impressed by individual plays made by a quarterback without a touchdown pass through three career starts.

I’m not a parent, but watching Nix has to be like watching a kid learn how to ride a bicycle — but one who has no idea how to ride one. Oh, and it’s actually a unicycle.

That’s why he ranks 29th of 31 qualified QBs in passer rating and has a completion percentage 5+ yards downfield (38.1%) that makes even Daniel Jones blush (47.4%). He’s not ready for the NFL game.

That said, he’s talented and malleable. Much like my fictitious child who would find different ways to fail on my unicycle challenge, Nix showed last week that he can learn from failure, a redeeming quality for any rookie.

Kudos to the Broncos for being the parent who allows its child to fail. Nix is the only quarterback in the league to throw at least 35 passes in every game this season and is one of two QBs since 2000 who were drafted by an NFL team and opened their career with three starts of 25+ rush yards and 30+ pass attempts (the other, Jalen Hurts).

A matchup with the Jets is asking our child to tackle this unicycle situation with a blindfold and in the rain. Do I think it’s likely to go well? No, but I’m keeping a close eye on Nix – there is a week coming this season where he is the punt play in DFS for all the money.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Outlook

We aren’t there yet, but what we saw on Thursday night in the domination of the Patriots has the four-time MVP trending toward fantasy relevance.

The counting numbers looked good (281 passing yards and two touchdowns) last week, but it’s so much more than that when it comes to projecting forward. I was most encouraged by his mobility – he was a perfect 6-for-6 for 88 yards last week when throwing from outside of the pocket, his most such completions in a game since Week 3, 2020. He picked up 18 yards with his legs as well, a nice little boost, but the value in his extending creates a ceiling that I wasn’t sure we’d ever see from him again.

I also liked the game plan: develop a rhythm. During Rodgers’ final two seasons in Green Bay, he saw his first-quarter aDOT check in over 7.0 yards, a rate that currently sits at 4.8. He completed his first six passes (to five different players) on Thursday night, showing his ability to execute the game script.

He’s not yet a fantasy starter for me in any one-QB league, but with bye weeks coming into effect next week and the likelihood that Rodgers only improves with time, it wouldn’t shock me if he flirts with my top 12 in a month:

Week 9 vs. Texans
Week 10 at Cardinals
Week 11 vs. Colts

Javonte Williams Fantasy Outlook

A lost fumble. A failed goal-line carry. A second game this season cashing in under 50% of his expected points.

That’s the profile of a shaky fantasy asset at best, but he maintains the lead in this backfield in touches and has enough versatility (10 catches this season) to warrant Flex consideration in neutral matchups.

The problem — this isn’t a neutral matchup, this is a game against the fourth-best rush defense since the start of last season.

I have plenty of Williams exposure, and I’m benching him across the board.

Jaleel McLaughlin Fantasy Outlook

His touchdown run last week was a thing of beauty and a reminder of the athleticism in his profile. As impressive as that run was, the situation was more impactful – it was the third straight goal-line carry that Denver trusted with him.

With just nine touches over the past two weeks, McLaughlin’s role isn’t yet that of a fantasy asset, but he is certainly trending in that direction and is a player I want to keep stashed.

Breece Hall Fantasy Outlook

Braelon Allen has looked great to open his career (141 yards and two TDs on 25 touches) – should Hall managers worry? It depends on how you define “worry.” He’s too talented and remains too involved to fall off in a massive way, but returning value based on where you selected him is getting increasingly difficult.

Hall picked up at least 10 yards on 9% of his carries last season, a rate that has ticked down to 6.5% through three weeks this season. I’m not worried about his ability to produce chunk plays and would bet on his efficiency improving with time, but if the volume isn’t as bulletproof as we assumed, any struggles in the splash-play department create a floor that has to be considered.

Of course, there’s nothing for you to do here. I wouldn’t trade him and his 3.7 yards per carry (3.1 if you remove a single carry from Week 2 in Tennessee), and he’s pacing for over 90 receptions in an efficient offense.

I’m lowering expectations moving forward, though there is a window for him to post a big number on an extended rest against a Seahawks team that saw a high-pedigree back gash them in Week 1 (Kenneth Walker III: 20 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown).

Braelon Allen Fantasy Outlook

Allen is in danger of falling into a sub-optimal spot for fantasy managers. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been as impressed with the rookie as anyone (53.4% production over expectation, second-best among qualifiers), but is that what we should be rooting for?

Allen opened the second drive on Thursday night with a 10-yard burst, setting the stage for him to continue to look the part of an NFL-ready player. This puts him in a position to earn snaps and tempts you to consider Flexing him despite his secondary role in a molasses-slow offense that Rodgers will look to dictate through the air when possible.

Allen’s snap count only has so much upward trajectory. I love that they are looking for excuses to get him on the field alongside Hall, but that means his weekly touch count is going to be varied.

He’s more valuable than a strict handcuff, but I’m not sure if he’s valuable enough to crack your lineup. Be careful in being blinded by the talent – he’s good enough to warrant starting lineup consideration, though the math doesn’t yet check out in terms of mean projections.

Courtland Sutton Fantasy Outlook

Since the beginning of last season, only once has a non-AFC East receiver cleared 14.3 PPR points against the Jets (Calvin Ridley in Week 2). Included in that sample are many big names that you’re well aware of – CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Deebo Samuel Sr., to name a few.

This is a brutal matchup for any passing offense (the Jets are one of five defenses yet to allow an end-zone reception), let alone one that is relying on Unicycle Bo to deliver the ball on time.

Sutton’s slot rate is down from 18.5% last season to 15.7%, resulting in fewer layup targets, the opportunities he absolutely has to have to make this situation work.

Garrett Wilson Fantasy Outlook

Every year, a few players show far more promise than their raw box score suggests. Sometimes, those players struggle to produce up to expectations all season long (2023 Tony Pollard) while others break through in a major way and sustain excellence (Amon-Ra St. Brown down the stretch of his rookie season).

I’m tempted to think that once Wilson posts a huge number, there is no going back. He owns a 28.6% target share from Rodgers through three weeks, and you can see this connection developing — it’s kind of like watching a fawn learn how to walk: We know the fawn will grow into a graceful deer that can navigate the woods at hyper speed … it’s only a matter of time

There is clearly potential on these back-shoulder targets, especially in scoring position. Rodgers wants to get him involved, and with time, we are going to get Davante Adams-esque afternoons. This offense operating at a slow pace, like Green Bay always did, introduces too much downside to consider Wilson a threat to enter the top tier at the position given the talent around him, so I’d caution against getting too over your skis.

That said, Wilson is a star in the making who could peak in December as the schedule lightens and the Jets are potentially pushed to score more often (Weeks 14-18: Dolphins twice, Jaguars, Rams, and Bills). I don’t think we see his star shine at that elite level this week against Patrick Surtain II, but he profiles as a nice floor play until we get the true breakout performance.

Allen Lazard Fantasy Outlook

Rodgers checked out of a run, threw a quick pass to Lazard on the left hash, and cashed it in, much to the dismay of fantasy managers everywhere. He has now scored on three of his 11 receptions this season, a rate that is wildly unsustainable for anyone (his 10.9% career scoring rate entering this season is awfully high, and even that is nowhere near his 27.3% rate through three weeks).

In addition to sheer regression, the increased health of Mike Williams stands to blow in this house of cards in short order.

Lazard vs. Williams, 2024 usage

• Week 1: Five targets on 22 routes vs. zero targets on six routes
• Week 2: Four targets on 24 routes vs. one target on 23 routes
• Week 3: Three targets on 33 routes vs. four targets on 19 routes

You can roster Lazard if you’d like, especially with a late bye (Week 12), but I don’t think it’s needed, and I find it unlikely that you’re ever giving him serious consideration.

Mike Williams Fantasy Outlook

Williams is still available in the majority of ESPN leagues, and that shouldn’t be the case. I understand why that’s the case: He’s an injury-plagued veteran receiver playing in a slow offense with plenty of moving pieces, but the signs are in place.

All offseason, the Jets told us that they were going to manage Williams’ return from an ACL tear much like they did Hall last season, and they’ve held true to form.

After a re-introduction to the professional game in Week 1 and a cardio effort in Week 2, Rodgers, amid a semi-vintage performance, was looking Williams’ way (four targets on 19 routes doesn’t include a bomb that was fired his way in a jump-ball situation, a play that was called back for offensive holding).

The counting numbers are irrelevant. Williams has 9.3 fantasy points this season and doesn’t have a 20-yard grab – I don’t care. It’s unlikely that you can acquire any of the uber-talented Jets due to the optimism surrounding this offense, but Williams is free in some leagues and, at worst, cheap in others.

Williams won’t be a Flex player until he proves it, but we are getting close.

Tyler Conklin Fantasy Outlook

Conklin had more receiving yards against the Patriots (93) than any two of his teammates combined, a performance that certainly doesn’t project as sticky in the least. That said, the tight end position is currently a mess, and we know that Rodgers has the ability to lead an efficient red-zone offense.

Conklin accounted for 40 of Rodgers’ 88 yards outside of the pocket in the win over the Patriots, offering the type of check-down option that could sneak into the top 12 at the position on a semi-regular basis.

He also saw an end-zone target in Week 3, lending credence to the idea that he carries some touchdown equity. I find it unlikely that Conklin ever gives you a top-five week at the position, but if he’s in the 8-10 PPR point range on a consistent basis, that holds value.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Eagles -2.5
• Total: 45
• Eagles implied points: 24.3
• Buccaneers implied points: 21.8

Jalen Hurts Fantasy Outlook

An ugly end-zone interception last week showcased what this offense is missing with A.J. Brown sidelined – the timing with DeVonta Smith was just a little off, and his body type doesn’t allow for the same margin of error as Brown’s.

With both Brown and Smith banged up, not to mention Saquon Barkley thriving, I’m not expecting this to be Hurts’ best fantasy performance (he’s failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in seven of his past eight games as a road favorite), but with an implied total approaching 25 points and his athletic profile, he’s still an easy start in all formats this weekend.

The argument this summer when taking an anti-Hurts stance was largely built on Barkley’s impact. Well, Barkley is pacing toward being the RB1 overall, yet Hurts has more carries gaining over 20 yards this season than last regular season. This is a strong offense that will be far better than the 36 points they’ve totaled over the past two weeks.

If there’s a chance to acquire Hurts for anything less than a Tier 1 price tag, I wouldn’t hesitate. Philadelphia goes on bye next week – coming out of that, I’d expect them to be the high-functioning offense we assumed we’d see all season long.

Baker Mayfield Fantasy Outlook

After averaging north of 9.5 yards per pass attempt in consecutive games to open the season, it took Mayfield 33 attempts (25 completions) to give us 163 yards against the Broncos in a disappointing 26-7 loss. Did he fall victim to the vaunted Cover 2 pandemic?

Technically, not really, as he only threw six passes against that coverage, but the idea of taking away the game-breaking play did factor into his underwhelming day at the office. For just the sixth time across his 93 career starts (playoffs included), Mayfield didn’t complete a pass that traveled at least 15 yards in the air.

Heck, he only threw two such passes. Any time that is the case, Mayfield will struggle, though I don’t think that’s the case this week against an Eagles defense with the sixth-highest opponent aDOT since the beginning of last season. This projects as a passing script in a spot where I think Mayfield can have success on a per-pass basis — he’s flirting with my top 12 and is a viable play in both redraft and DFS in my eyes.

Saquon Barkley Fantasy Outlook

Barkley is the favorite to lead the position in scoring this season as he reminds us of just how high his ceiling is. He’s run for at least 95 yards in all three games this season, but that’s not all.

In consecutive games, he’s added at least four catches to those 95 rushing yards. It’s been six years since the last time we saw a back record three straight such games, a stat that just confirms what your eyes are seeing.

Vintage Barkley is back, and if you took him in the early second round this summer, you’re sitting pretty through three weeks.

Rachaad White Fantasy Outlook

While White’s production hasn’t impressed, his snap share hasn’t flinched:

• Week 1 vs. WAS: 68.9%
• Week 2 at DET: 70.2%
• Week 3 vs. DEN: 73.2%

However, his production relative to expectation paints a less optimistic picture. In Week 1, it was 3.8% below what we’d project for the average NFL back given the proximity to the end zone of his touches, a minor blip, but White has produced 33.2% below expectation in the two weeks since.

White has 432 career carries and has never had a 40-yard gain. Heck, he’s played 10 straight games without recording a run gaining more than 22 yards. The risk in White is that his backup is a version of him and thus a threat to take over his role as opposed to simply assuming a portion of it.

I still have White ranked as a low-end PPR RB2, but I’d be lying to you if I said it was with great confidence.

Bucky Irving Fantasy Outlook

For the second time in three weeks, the rookie handled exactly nine carries (with a 30+ yard attempt) and three targets. For an explosive player like this, anything in that 10-15 opportunity neighborhood is going to put him on Flex radars, especially in an offense that prefers to use the short passing game as a supplement to the traditional ground game at times.

Against the Broncos, Irving picked up 32 yards on a nice play design that slanted all offensive movement to the left before a quick handoff to Irving and a sprint to the right, the type of design that is schemed up for a player that is identified as a game-breaker (the Chiefs have tried those sorts of action with Xavier Worthy, and the Cowboys would get creative in ways like this when Tony Pollard was playing behind Ezekiel Elliott).

Irving was tackled at the one-yard line on a 13-yard rush; otherwise, his fantasy box score looks even more impressive. Without those additional 6.1 points, is it possible that he can still be had at a relative discount?

Remember, like, 200 words ago when I was raising a red flag around White and his production below expectation over the past two weeks? The opposite, behind the same offensive line, is true for Irving.

Both Buccaneers RBs in Weeks 2-3

• White: 11.8 fantasy points (20.8 expected fantasy points)
• Irving: 13.6 fantasy points (12.0 expected fantasy points)

The rookie is making a push for Flex consideration as it stands and could prove to be the Buccaneer you want to have when the favorable portion of their schedule comes into play.

Week 12 at Giants
Week 13 at Panthers
Week 14 vs. Raiders
Week 15 at Chargers
Week 16 at Cowboys
Week 17 vs. Panthers

A.J. Brown Fantasy Outlook

The nagging hamstring injury has cost Brown consecutive games, the first two DNPs of his career as an Eagle. His being ruled out came as no surprise after admitting before Week 2 that he’d likely need a few weeks to get right and did not take part in practice all week.

Would Philadelphia love to have him back this weekend in Tampa Bay? Of course, but for a team that fell apart down the stretch of last season and has its bye week looming (yep, byes come into play next week with the Lions, Titans, and Chargers joining the Eagles on break), it would stand to reason that the team will be cautious with its WR1.

You’ll want to keep tabs on this situation – if the Eagles feel Brown is healthy enough to roll out there, I find it hard to believe that you have three better options, I just wouldn’t be banking on having his services again until Philadelphia hosts Cleveland in Week 6.

DeVonta Smith Fantasy Outlook

Brown’s continued absence certainly helps Smith’s stock, as the increase in target share opens up his path to ceiling performances (Week 2 against the Falcons: 30% target share with a touchdown).

Assuming that Smith again plays the role of alpha in this passing game (injury looming), the matchup is strong given the pass-funnel tendencies that the Bucs have shown for the better part of two years.

Or is it?

There have been some strong performances by WR1s against Tampa Bay since the beginning of last season, but we’ve seen a few instances where a secondary option is the one that primarily benefits:

• Week 8, 2023: Gabe Davis scores 14.7 points (Stefon Diggs, 7.0)
• Week 9, 2023: Tank Dell scores 23.6 points; Noah Brown, 21.3 (Nico Collins, 11.4)

There were also a few games where the WR1 led the team in scoring but not in the type of dominant fashion you’d expect.

• Week 1, 2023: Justin Jefferson outscored Jordan Addison by just 2.9 points
• Week 3, 2023: Brown outscored Olamide Zaccheaus by just 1.3 points
• Week 15: Jayden Reed outscored Dontayvion Wicks by just 1.5 points

I’m just planting the seed. I still have Smith as a locked-in option in all standard leagues and wouldn’t hesitate to employ him (he’s finished each of the first three weeks as a WR2 in PPR formats), though I don’t think his stock this week is as tied to Brown’s as it has been in the past. You’re playing him either way, but I’ll be looking elsewhere when it comes to DFS exposure.

Mike Evans Fantasy Outlook

Is he still the WR1 in Tampa Bay?

I’d argue no, and this week could be another example. Evans doesn’t have a 25-yard catch this season and has seen his reception total decline with each passing week. His profile suggests that you can still start him because of the touchdown equity, and I agree with that, but considering that he has earned just 15 targets up to this point, his number of chances to score has been underwhelming through three weeks.

Evans has averaged just 1.56 yards per route run over his past six as an underdog, something that tells me that these better teams prioritize taking him away. I’m not confident that the Eagles can repeat their gem of a defensive effort from last week, but if they key on Evans, this could be another rough outing.

Chris Godwin Fantasy Outlook

Some players take time to warm up to a new season, and some players are Chris Godwin. The pride of Penn State has scored and seen at least eight looks in all three games this season, joining DeVonta Smith as the only two players in the league with at least six grabs in all three weeks this season.

He’s been nothing short of phenomenal in his role in the slot, and all signs point to the good times continuing to roll through Week 4. The Eagles allow the second-most yards per slot pass this season (11.5), with four of the 17 such completions against them finishing in pay dirt.

That’s a blemish that figures to be magnified in this spot – Godwin has caught 13 of 16 slot targets for 192 yards and a pair of scores this season (all other Bucs from the slot: 11-122-2 on 15 targets). If you’re buying Mayfield as a legitimate option this week, you’ve got to have Godwin ranked inside of your top 15.

Personally, I have him as WR12 and am losing sleep thinking that I may not be high enough.

Jalen McMillan Fantasy Outlook

McMillan is the rare receiver handcuff. I like that he is getting live reps as preparation should Evans or Godwin go down (85 routes run this season), but with exactly one catch in all three games up to this point, I’m more likely to let him sit on the waiver wire and commit to a hefty FAAB bid should his role increase.

Dallas Goedert Fantasy Outlook

Jauan Jennings stole the lead for most content this week, and he deserved it, but I’d argue that what Goedert did in Week 3 was just as surprising. We are talking about a tight end that didn’t have a 40-yard catch in three of six seasons entering 2024. SEASONS. He did it twice in essentially three quarters in New Orleans last week.

Of course, that’s nothing you can bank on, but he does have back-to-back-to-back top-10 finishes at the position and is the only tight end that can claim that. Goedert has a catch gaining more than 15 yards in all three contests, a skill set that doesn’t feel sticky, but any semblance of upside, even on limited volume, is worth your while at TE.

With Brown and Smith at less than full strength, Goedert’s stock is trending up and deserves to be locked in with reasonable confidence this week.

Cade Otton Fantasy Outlook

Otton’s 91.5% snap share this season is the highest since … well, since Otton last year (96.3%). I’m going to keep putting him in this article because, as we near bye weeks and continue to have carnage across the league, rostering a player who is always on the field is going to seem like a logical move.

Don’t get sucked in.

It took him eight targets last week to get past 45 receiving yards for the first regular season game in over 10 months. If you want a tight end who is on the field a ton, you’re better off rolling the dice with Tyler Conklin or Dalton Schultz and simply betting on their quarterbacks.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Bengals -4.5
• Total: 47.5
• Bengals implied points: 26
• Panthers implied points: 21.5

Joe Burrow Fantasy Outlook

Tee Higgins returned to action last week, and that was good to see, but I’d argue that the bigger impact from Week 3 was confirmation that this team has no interest in defending.

This season, when trailing, NFL teams have dropped back to pass 66.5% of the time; that, as you’d expect, dwarfs the rate for teams when leading (49%). That makes me think that two-week segments where Burrow throws 74 passes (52 completions for 582 yards and five scores) will be more of a norm than an outlier.

If the Week 3 Panthers show up in Week 4, what we saw from the Bengals on Monday night against the Commanders could happen again. That game script allows Burrow to crack the top five at the position this week as he faces a defense lit up by Derek Carr in Week 1 (200 yards and three touchdowns on 23 passes).

Burrow and his frosted tips get a lot of negative attention because of the limited success of this team as a whole, but the man has averaged over 10 yards per completion in five of his past seven games. The two exceptions over that stretch were games against elite defenses in Baltimore and New England.

I think we can agree that Carolina’s defense isn’t in the same zip code as either of those units.

Andy Dalton Fantasy Outlook

Woah.

It wasn’t difficult to assume that the change under center in Carolina would result in improvement, but I don’t think anybody saw this team nearly tripling its scoring output from the first two weeks against the Raiders.

We saw it from the jump. Dalton completed passes to four different players in his first drive of the season, one capped with a Chuba Hubbard score. The Red Rifle has never been considered “elite,” but he now has two more games with 315+ passing yards and multiple passing scores than Joe Flacco despite having 33 fewer professional starts (Week 3 at Raiders: 319 passing yards with three passing touchdowns).

That’s great, and getting a vulnerable defense on a short work week is certainly a spot where a repeat performance is within the range of outcomes. I’m not projecting such a game, as there’s too much risk involved and it would mean benching either a far superior passing talent (Dak Prescott or Jordan Love) or an athlete built to break our game (Anthony Richardson or Justin Fields).

That said, you can feel just fine about plugging him in as a Superflex option. Dalton is a top-20 QB for me this week, putting him in the same tier as Brock Purdy and Aaron Rodgers. His passing profile is on par with those two when you factor in offensive creativity and projected game script.

Zack Moss Fantasy Outlook

Moss continues to live in the 75-80% snap share neighborhood, and that’s plenty given his role in the passing game (eight catches this season) and short-yardage situations. The 0-3 Bengals need to keep their defense off the field if they are going to turn around their season, and one path to doing that is committing more to Moss (yet to exceed 12 carries in a game).

The Panthers are the ninth-worst rush defense in terms of success rate and fifth-worst when it comes to yards per carry allowed before contact. Moss is flirting with RB15 honors for me in this advantageous spot, ranking ahead of bigger names like Aaron Jones and bigger 2024 stat lines like J.K. Dobbins.

Chase Brown Fantasy Outlook

I continue to think that Brown shows upside when given the opportunity (11.6% over expectation this season), but with a 23.3% snap share last week, the opportunity count simply isn’t there.

That role is consistent with what he held in the first two weeks. Brown should be labeled as more of a reasonable handcuff than a real threat to hold stand-alone value.

Chuba Hubbard Fantasy Outlook

Hubbard has seen five targets in consecutive games, and if this offense is going to trend close to the league average, Hubbard’s status as an RB2 is reasonably safe. He carried the ball 21 times in the blowout win over the Raiders after recording just 20 touches in the first two games this season, a stretch that saw them outscored 73-13.

Hubbard’s production in 2024

• Eight quarters with Young: 90 yards and zero touchdowns
• Four quarters with Dalton: 169 yards and one touchdown

The Bengals are on a short work week and are an offensive-oriented team. The way to beat such a team is to bloody its nose early and make it play your style.

Hubbard has a reasonable range of outcomes, but if Carolina can keep this score close, he’s a good bet to post top-20 numbers.

Ja’Marr Chase Fantasy Outlook

You don’t think this team wants to get its ace receiver on track? Its first play against the Commanders was a screen, part of an opening script that started dropback-dropback-dropback and ended with a 41-yard score to its WR1 (36 air yards).

Chase has traditionally not been a big producer on short rest (6.5 PPG for his career with just one touchdown across 255 routes run), but I’m willing to overlook that for what we saw in his first game alongside Tee Higgins this season.

Chase’s production rates in 2024

• Weeks 1-2 (no Higgins): 1.37 yards per route, 27.1% slot, and 5.9 aDOT
• Week 3 (vs. Commanders): 2.88 yards per route, 23.7% slot, and 13.1 aDOT

His usage on Monday night reflected what we were hoping for this summer in drafting him in the first round, and I’m willing to bet it sticks as Cincinnati looks to dig out of the hole it created.

Tee Higgins Fantasy Outlook

Higgins wasn’t able to get into the fun during Monday’s shootout, but he proved his health, and that’s enough for me to feel fine about sliding him back into lineups (90% snap share).

With the development of Andrei Iosivas, Higgins didn’t spend much time in the slot last week (15.4% of routes, lowest of the three primary receivers), something that I expect fantasy managers to feel moving forward as it lowers his weekly floor.

That said, he still earned six targets, two of which came in the end zone, and ran downfield routes (12.7 aDOT) in his season debut. Cincinnati games will be, in large, track meets, and that’ll create an environment that allows Higgins to produce top-25 numbers.

Andrei Iosivas Fantasy Outlook

Even with Higgins returning and assuming a regular role, the man known as “Yoshi” was on the field for 76.7% of Bengals snaps and continued to establish himself as a legit threat in scoring situations (four end-zone targets this season).

He’s not ranked as a top-40 option for me this week, as I think the target floor could fall out relatively easily, especially if the Bengals jump out early, but it is worth noting that the Panthers have allowed a league-high five end-zone receptions this season (Bengals not named Iosivas have failed to convert any of their 10 end-zone looks this season).

Diontae Johnson Fantasy Outlook

As if our QB grades didn’t give you context enough, the ineptitude of Young was on full display in Week 3 as Dalton was able to come off the bench and make Johnson look like a Hall of Famer.

Johnson’s production in 2024

• Weeks 1-2: 21.8% target share and a 41.7% catch rate
• Week 3: 37.8% targets share and a 57.1% catch rate

The touchdown Johnson scored on Sunday was a five-yard dime from Dalton, and as the unquestioned WR1 in an offense that figures to be playing catch-up, Johnson is a top-25 option for me and could reasonably be played over Tyreek Hill.

It’s a crazy world out there, and we are still in September.

Adam Thielen Fantasy Outlook

A hamstring injury is expected to keep Thielen out for at least the next week and potentially longer. It was he and Johnson dominating from the slot last week (both touchdowns came when lined up there), a role that now falls completely in the lap of the former Steeler against a defense that has allowed a league-high 83.3% completion percentage when opponents target the slot.

While Johnson figures to carve up the Bengals with crossing routes, could first-round rookie <strong>Xavier Legette</strong> get the chance to prove he’s more than just an elite interview?

The 6’3” former Gamecock has yet to get much in the way of an opportunity (77 yards on 10 targets), but the size profile is encouraging, and my podcast co-host Theo Ash is excited about the opportunity for a kid who averaged 17.7 yards per catch in his final collegiate season.

I’m not planting a flag or anything on him, but if you have roster space available, he’s likely free in your league now, whereas he might cost you a waiver priority/FAAB come next week.

Mike Gesicki Fantasy Outlook

The Gesicki mold might not be for everyone, but he’s essentially a receiver in an offense that we believe, on any given week, has a top-10 upside. His usage this season has been in line with what we’ve come to expect (play roughly half the snaps and run a route on north of 90% of his reps), and that’s allowed him to catch at least three passes in all three weeks this season.

If that sounds like an incredibly low bar, that’s because it is. That said, it is a bar that only five other tight ends have cleared this season, something that speaks to the value of a skill set like Gesicki’s. He’s not a game-breaker, but he is someone that Burrow trusts; by spending 55.3% of his time in the slot this season, he seems to be the answer as to who will fill the Tyler Boyd role.

I don’t think you’re losing ground on the majority of your league by plugging in Gesicki, and if you can survive the tight end position with relatively no investment, you’re moving in the right direction.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -6
• Total: 45.5
• Jaguars implied points: 19.8
• Texans implied points: 25.8

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook

If Jacksonville is going to be this bad (eight straight losses under Lawrence), there is going to be a right time to go this route in a DFS setting, but I need to see signs of life before trusting him at all.

The upside case isn’t hard to make on the whole – potentially a good game script for a versatile QB whose aDOT is up 20.7% from last season – but with a 52.8% completion percentage (37.5% when blitzed), there’s no point in trying to be early to the party.

If we step in the right direction this week, I’ll be open to the idea of DFS exposure next week with the Colts coming to town.

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Outlook

Remember that fantasy is a marathon, not a sprint. Did Stroud cost you your matchup last week with an absolute dud in Minnesota (215 pass yards with one touchdown and two interceptions)? Likely. Should it change anything you do moving forward? Not even a little.

There was always going to be a learning curve. Stroud lit the league up last season, but defenses had the entire offseason to adjust, not to mention the moving pieces added to his arsenal this summer. If you signed up for Stroud as your QB this season, you’re married to him, in sickness and in health. You absorb the early blows and bet on long-term success.

Sunday was a mess. He had a 17-yard completion wiped out due to a penalty and then promptly threw an interception. That was the only offensive play all day long in which his Texans weren’t trailing, and while that creates a positive game script, it’s a tough spot to be against an overly aggressive defense.

It’s hard to find a better bounce-back spot than a Jags defense that is on short rest after being systematically picked apart by Josh Allen.

Travis Etienne Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Etienne has yet to clear 13 carries in a game this season due to the one-sided nature of Jacksonville’s games, and that could again be a problem this week. That said, we have a history of him being a versatile option, something we’ve seen this season (nine catches and 13 targets).

The Jags aren’t going to win a shootout with the Texans, and I think they know that. They funneled 47 touches Etienne’s way in two games against Houston last season, a level of involvement that I believe is in play this week should they remain competitive.

Even if you think this game ends up being one-sided, Etienne’s ability to earn looks out of the backfield is enough to stabilize his value as an RB2.

Tank Bigsby Fantasy Outlook

Bigsby looked like a legitimate threat in Week 1 against the Dolphins (12 carries for 73 yards), but this offense is in disarray, and he’s hardly been used since (he was banged up in Week 2, but the point remains that this offense is struggling to sustain anything of note).

The second-year back has one reception in his career and is picking up just 3.3 yards per carry — he’s nothing more than an Etienne handcuff, and, to be honest, is Jacksonville’s running back worth backing up?

Bigsby can hang on rosters for another week or until you are pressed with bye-week roster issues, but by no means is he the type of player that needs to be held onto.

Joe Mixon Fantasy Outlook

Do the Texans look to rush Mixon back from the ankle injury that cost him Week 3? My hunch is that they don’t or, at the very least, stick to a strict touch count for an RB with over 2,000 touches on his NFL résumé.

Stay tuned. Mixon’s ranking this week will hinge on the reporting of his rehab, but if I have him rostered, I’m putting him on the bench and adjusting if need be as opposed to the other way around.

Cam Akers Fantasy Outlook

We saw some burst from Akers this preseason and got a glimpse of that on Sunday as he filled the lead role in Houston for the ailing Mixon, but because the Texans were tailing for 62 of their 63 plays, we didn’t get the sort of volume we were hoping for (Houston finished with 14 rushing attempts).

If Mixon sits this week, Akers will be a low-end RB2. This looks like a positive matchup based on the spread, but Jacksonville does rank 20th in defensive success rate against the run.

If Mixon is active, I’ll be looking to avoid this backfield as a whole.

Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook

I want to buy weekly, but all three of the primary receivers on this team have three deep receptions. In order to make his field-stretching role work for us, Thomas needs to own that role.

That could happen with time (I actually think it will), but until it does, BTJ is nothing more than an exciting prospect who needs to be riding your pine.

Christian Kirk Fantasy Outlook

If the Jaguars are going to bounce back, I think Kirk holds the key. His versatility is often overlooked, and I think fantasy managers have a chance to capitalize on it now before it’s too late.

Through three weeks, Kirk owns the fifth-highest aDOT for a sub-6’ receiver with a mark that is up 13.1% from last season. Due to Calvin Ridley taking his talents to Tennessee, Kirk is being used more vertically but without leaving the slot.

Kirk has accounted for 44.4% of Jacksonville’s slot targets and 47.4% of its slot receptions, a nice role to take into a matchup that has allowed a league-high four slot scores. After a disaster of a start to the season, the slot savant was a rare Jaguar who showed up last week (8-79-0 on 10 targets), and I think we see more of the same in another positive script for Jacksonville’s passing attack.

Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook

Did I love that he was being force-fed end-zone targets by Davis Mills in the waning moments of a blowout loss last week? Yes and no. The idea that this team wants to keep him fat and happy is a good thing, but putting my WR1 in a spot to potentially get dinged up courtesy of a hospital ball from a backup quarterback isn’t exactly something I’m looking for.

Collins wasn’t targeted in the first quarter last week and only had six yards in the first half, but he still ended up with a respectable final stat line. I trust this offense, and with Collins establishing himself as the clear alpha so early in the season, those who drafted him are in a great spot for a positive ROI.

Opponents are 7-of-9 when throwing in the red zone against Jacksonville this season (NFL average: 50.9% complete inside the 20), and I feel good about where those looks are going. Banking on Collins for a third straight double-digit target game is sound, and with a 28+ yard catch in all three contests so far, the floor/ceiling profile is as strong as any of the second-tier receivers in our game.

Tank Dell Fantasy Outlook

We will be tracking the seemingly minor hand injury that Dell suffered late in Week 3 – and by monitoring, I mean keeping track of it for future weeks. As an undersized receiver, consistency was bound to be a struggle for Dell – we’ve seen some consistency this season, but nothing positive.

Through three weeks, he ranks 69th of 77 qualified receivers in points relative to expectation (-31.8%) and has turned 17 targets into just 99 yards. I’m tempted to think that the injury isn’t prohibitive in a major way, giving Dell a chance to show me some juice this weekend before I consider putting him back into my lineup with any sort of regularity.

Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook

Stroud’s first two completions last week went to Diggs, and he was clearly circled as the matchup they wanted to expose – 38.9% first-half target share as he was the only Texan with multiple receptions.

When all was said and done, Diggs doubled his season target share in Week 3 and recorded his second top-20 finish of the season. I remain skeptical about his status as a top-30 receiver for the remainder of this season, but as long he is successfully being schemed up looks underneath, his floor is high enough to justify starting him in PPR leagues.

If Dell and Mixon are limited/out and this offense is going to clear 25 points as is expected, Diggs is a good bet to justify a starting tag in most, if not all, formats.

Evan Engram Fantasy Outlook

A hamstring injury cropped up during warmups heading into Week 2 and has now cost Engram a pair of games. The Jaguars don’t go on bye until late November (Week 12), so this is an injury that the veteran is going to have to work his way through without the benefit of extended rest.

Availability has been a strength of Engram’s (he appeared in every game in each of his first two seasons with the Jags), and while his lone appearance this season was a dud (five yards on four targets against the Dolphins), he’s earned enough trust to be counted on as a fantasy starter once he returns to the practice field.

Of course, you need to be careful, as he is a 30-year-old option in an offense that lacks consistency, but given the state of the tight end position, I’d feel comfortable plugging him in the second we get optimistic reports around his status.

Dalton Schultz Fantasy Outlook

Schultz has been a poor man’s Pat Freiermuth this season, and I promise you that is not a sentence you want to hear under any circumstances. He was lucky to not put the ball on the ground last week in Minnesota (the review deemed it was a drop and not a fumble), and while he redeemed himself with a fourth-down catch later on that drive, his season stat line (7-48-0) is a stat line that we could see a half dozen tight ends produce this weekend alone.

The process behind wanting a piece of this offense is sound, but not every process bears fruit, and Schultz doesn’t appear to have a path to mattering.

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Spread: Cardinals -3.5
• Total: 50.5
• Commanders implied points: 23.5
• Cardinals implied points: 27

Jayden Daniels Fantasy Outlook

No player helped his stock more in Week 3 than Daniels as he shredded a desperate Bengals team. The raw numbers (21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and two scores on top of 39 rushing yards and another touchdown) are eye-popping — I’d argue that the deeper you dive, the better it gets.

The athleticism is his calling card and will continue to be, but a fe, drop-it-in-the-bucket throws to Terry McLaurin have me thinking that there’s a chance Daniels is what we want Anthony Richardson to be.

Kliff Kingsbury very much protected his rookie through two weeks with a horizontal-based passing attack (4.7 aDOT), but the unleashed version of him against Cincinnati (9.3 aDOT) looked like a cheat code.

He gets a Cardinals defense that is allowing the second-most yards per pass this season (at least 8.0 yards per attempt allowed in all three games this season) due to a defense that creates pressure at the eighth-lowest rate (28.4% of dropbacks).

He’s already the only QB this millennium with three straight games of 10+ rush attempts, 20+ pass attempts, and a 70% completion rate — that might just be the first of the historic notes that Daniels provides during his first season.

Kyler Murray Fantasy Outlook

Murray has been great by fantasy standards this season, recording a 20+ yard run in all three games while showing flashes of brilliance in the passing game. We saw him come out of the gates on fire last week in a favorable spot against the Lions (first drive: 4-of-4 for 38 yards and a touchdown to go along with 34 rushing yards), and I’d expect more of the same this weekend.

14.9
17.2
19.0
28.5

Ending with the most recent (Week 2 against the Rams), those are Murray’s past four games as a betting favorite, a role he assumes this week against a vulnerable defense on short rest.

It’s impossible to rank Murray too high this week — the spot, the versatility, the supporting cast, and even the confidence of his counterpart. If Washington remains competitive in this game, that means we have a shootout on our hands, and it could lead to a truly special showing from Murray.

Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Robinson struggled last week against the Bengals (16 carries for 33 yards), but he pushed a goal-line carry into the end zone, and that’s enough to satisfy his managers.

Before exiting, Austin Ekeler was trending toward a season-high in usage, a major problem for Robinson given how good the veteran looked and how little versatility the incumbent has shown over the past two weeks (two catches total for seven yards).

I remain bullish on Robinson this season and think he can get the train back on the tracks in this spot – he’s a top-15 back for me against the Cardinals.

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Outlook

The veteran handled three of Washington’s first four touches on Monday in Cincinnati (an eight-yard rush and 22 yards’ worth of receptions), but his night ultimately ended early due to a head injury.

I touched on Robinson’s lack of efficiency last week, and that is the path for Ekeler to carve out a Flex-worthy role, but we aren’t there yet. Robinson is still to be labeled the only running back in this offense that you can trust, something I feel even better about if this offense is truly going to challenge downfield more often.

Ekeler is deserving of a roster spot (20+ yard touch in all three games), though I’m having a hard time believing that his weekly touch ceiling is much above the 11 he saw in Week 2, and that makes it difficult to crack my top 30 at the position.

James Conner Fantasy Outlook

Conner put together one of the more underrated seasons last year, and in the first two weeks of this season, that momentum was carried over.

• Weeks 1-2: 42 touches with a TD in both games
• Week 3: 10 touches without a touchdown

Why the change? The Cardinals were either in a competitive situation or a positive game script to open the season before trailing for 100% of their offensive snaps last week against the Lions.

Remember in the past when Derrick Henry’s upside hinged on the flow of the game? We might have a similar situation here, and while that’ll be a concern soon (road games against the 49ers and Packers in Weeks 5-6), I don’t anticipate it being a big issue on Sunday.

I’ve got Conner ranked as my RB7 this week and believe he makes a nice leverage piece in DFS with plenty of managers likely to look at this offense for a passing-game stack.

Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook

McLaurin may have only made four catches on Monday night, but man were they impressive. Daniels dropped a 55-yard dime into his hands as he sprinted past a double team and then offered more magic on the touchdown connection.

None of this is a surprise from McLaurin; we’ve seen him flash at the professional level, but the fact that Daniels was ready to take this step and wanted to do so by way of his WR1 was encouraging.

McLaurin isn’t going to average 25 yards per catch every week, and I’m interested to see where his aDOT settles in an offense that was largely low-octane through Week 2, but I saw enough of a conenction to bump him back inside my top 25 at the position. He now ranks along side Drake London, DJ Moore, and a Tua Tagovailoa-less Tyreek Hill.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Outlook

They say NFL teams script their early action to get their offense moving in the right direction. These are the plays you work on all week, hoping to set your team up for a strong 60-minute battle.

If you believe that, then it’s possible that the Cardinals like Harrison even more than fantasy managers.

Harrison’s first-quarter production this season

• Week 1: 12 routes, one target, zero yards, zero touchdowns
• Weeks 2-3: 14 routes, seven targets, 156 yards, three touchdowns

With that one-week learning curve very much in the rearview, it’s wheels up for Harrison. With Murray’s dual-threat capabilities, defenses can only allocate so much attention his way, and there are only a handful of defenders who I think can handle this rookie for 60 minutes.

You spent up on draft day, and you’re going to be happy you did.

Michael Wilson Fantasy Outlook

Wilson seems to get a catch early (five-yard reception on their third play last week) and then disappear for extended stretches. That is to be exepcted from a player looking to carve out a role in an explosive offense, we just hope his ascension happens faster if we are going to continue to stash him during bye-week roster crunches.

I dont love the fact that his aDOT is down 32.6% from last season, but I remain bullish on his single-week upside, especially with the Cardinals baiting defenses inside with the highest play-action rate in the league (20.6%).

Greg Dortch Fantasy Outlook

This is another situational play for you folks in the DFS streets or maybe deeper re-draft leagues. Dortch’s slot rate has more than doubled from last season (from 30.8% to 64.5%), and like every other metric against the Commanders, the slot has been an advantageous spot.

Opponents have completed 28 of 34 passes (82.4%) when looking that way for 304 yards and four scores, producing an elite passer rating (143.1). Dortch has seen at least six targets in two of three games this season, and if he makes it three of four, I like his chances of producing a viable stat line with room for upside.

Trey McBride Fantasy Outlook

For the second time in three weeks, one of the favorites in the “who will lead the position in fantasy points this season” market failed to clear 30 receiving yards.

It’s annoying, but everyone is going through similar emotional swings when it comes to the TE spot on their roster. On the plus side, he leads the position in targets, and an 8.4 aDOT (up 35.5% from last season) reflects a trust in his athleticism from the coaching staff.

Don’t sweat the slow start. In fact, I’d take it a step further — go ahead and try to capitalize on it. Rostering McBride means you don’t have to waste brain power in addressing the most frustrating position in fantasy sports. Go ahead and float a trade offer out there, and I think you might be surprised at the price reduction.

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -10
• Total: 39.5
• Patriots implied points: 14.8
• 49ers implied points: 24.8

Jacoby Brissett Fantasy Outlook

Brissett has 368 passing yards through three games this season. Quarterbacks surpassed that total in a single game 15 times last season (Sam Howell, Nick Mullens, C.J. Stroud, and Dak Prescott all did it twice in 2023).

The Patriots have no interest in supporting a viable fantasy member of this passing game, and I don’t think that’s going to change if/when they make the move to Drake Maye.

Brock Purdy Fantasy Outlook

The math doesn’t always math, but Purdy’s touchdown rate regressing from 7% last season to 4.2% this season is an early win for number crunchers. Of course, factoring into that is the array of injuries in San Francisco. But with that potentially the case for an extended period of time, that is our new norm.

Purdy has been fine. Actually, he’s been better than that. He has consecutive games with a triple-digit passer rating despite the Niners taking the “L” in both contests. He’s the first 49ers QB to do that (100+ passer rating and lose in consecutive weeks) since Jeff Garcia (Weeks 6-7, 2000).

On the whole, I’m encouraged. Purdy’s aDOT is up 18.3% from a season ago and fantasy managers should be more than happy to sacrifice some stability for upside, especially if it sticks when this team is at full strength.

With his weapons still banged up and a stingy defense on the other sideline, Purdy isn’t a starter in any 1QB format for me this week, but I think he has a good chance to earn such a ranking with time.

Weeks 1-3

Bo Nix is the only QB with 35+ pass attempts in all 3 weeks

Brock Purdy is the only QB with 225+ pass yards in all 3 weeks

Sam Darnold is the only QB with 2+ TD passes in all 3 weeks

Brock Bowers is the only TE with 35+ rec. yards in all 3 weeks#FantasyFootball

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 24, 2024

Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Outlook

Last week was exactly what everyone feared coming into the season — it just took two strong games to get there. The Patriots were projected for fewer than five wins coming into this season, an expectation that carries without it the expectation of a negative game script.

That wasn’t at all the case through two weeks, which allowed Stevenson to score a pair of touchdowns while getting his hands on the ball 51 times. The six touches he got on Thursday night against the Jets isn’t the new norm (he missed some time with a finger injury), but I’d bet the under on 2.5 more games with 23+ touches — a mark he reached in Weeks 1-2.

To make matters worse, Stevenson lost a fumble and left you with 0.3 fantasy points in Week 3, likely costing you the week unless you had a superhero performance elsewhere.

I thought Antonio Gibson showed some juice and could make this something of a committee situation when New England is playing from behind, something I expect to be the case for the majority of this contest.

Stevenson is a Flex option at best this week. I understand where you may be backed into a corner, but I’d rather chase upside receivers at my Flex position if at all possible.

There will likely be another game at some point this season where the Patriots overachieve. Hopefully, it comes soon and affords you the option to sell their starting running back after you failed to do so following the aberrational beginning to the season.

Jordan Mason Fantasy Outlook

Mason’s fantasy production came crashing back to Earth in the blown game against the Rams.

Sort of.

Mason set the bar high by rushing for 100+ yards and a touchdown in each of San Francisco’s first two games, thresholds that were going to be difficult to sustain. The 10.8 PPR fantasy points he gave you last week weren’t worthy of the top-10 ranking he had throughout the industry, but complaining about a 20-touch afternoon in a strong offense is a spoiled manager’s problem.

Mason was 20% or better over expectations in each of the first two weeks this season but was 39.5% below what an average back would be expected to give us in Week 3. At the end of the day, he owns an elite role for a team that is favorable to bounce back from consecutive upset losses.

You can be disappointed last week and consider Mason a lineup lock — that’s how I’m approaching it.

DeMario Douglas Fantasy Outlook

Ja’Lynn Polk is my pick to be the best dynasty asset at the receiver position on this roster. However, in a redraft situation, the momentum seems to be moving in Douglas’ direction.

Will the slot specialist post a single top-20 week this season? I’d bet against it, but Douglas’ ability to earn high-quality targets is valuable in an offense that lacks reliable options otherwise.

Douglas is coming off a career-high seven receptions against the Jets as the Patriots embraced what he does well (his aDOT is down 28.8% from the rate he posted as a rookie). In that loss, he had as many catches as any two of his teammates had targets total, a role that makes him rosterable in PPR formats.

Polk is promising, but we are three games in and he has as many catches gaining more than seven yards as you and I.

Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy Outlook

If we are going with the “September is his preseason” narrative due to the missed work this summer, time is almost up, and Aiyuk should start producing like the star we know he is.

Purdy is playing well, but his WR1 has yet to really get going. Aiyuk’s yards per route have cratored from 3.06 last season to 1.18 this year, and he’s being looked at on under 20% of his routes after posting a career-best 24% rate a season ago.

I think those numbers will bounce back with time — it’s more how he is being used that has me concerned.

Last season, he and Purdy showcased an elite connection down the field, resulting in 40% of Aiyuk’s targets coming on deep balls. This season, that rate sits at just 15%.

We can live with a dip in efficiency or aggression, but not both.

Aiyuk is a fantasy starter for me, though I will admit that it’s more on the back of Purdy than anything I’ve seen from the veteran WR on the field or in the spreadsheets.

Jauan Jennings Fantasy Outlook

Jennings wasn’t a top-50 player at the position in routes or targets through two weeks, and now he’s the fourth-highest scoring receiver (PPR) in fantasy for the season (4.3 points ahead of Justin Jefferson and more points than Terry McLaurin and Jaylen Waddle combined).

Life comes at you fast.

Last week against the Rams, Jennings became the first player selected 200th or later in the NFL Draft with three touchdown catches in a game since Marques Colston (2012).

I don’t think what we saw last week is akin to when Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out for the Lions, a situation where he seemed poised to be a fantasy superstar for years to come. But in the short term, why can’t Jennings be Flexed?

In Week 3, he turned five slot targets into five receptions, 61 yards, and a pair of scores. That’s noteworthy given that the Patriots’ defense, while stingy, has allowed a league-high 34 completions to the slot on just 41 attempts.

Jennings, whose given name is Bennie, should again have as versatile of a route tree as he is willing to handle with his star teammates banged up.

I have him ranked alongside other receivers (like Rashid Shaheed and Brian Thomas Jr.) who can single-handedly swing your matchup in either direction.

Hunter Henry Fantasy Outlook

This is exactly why some people find fantasy football maddening. After you spent a waiver priority to pick up Henry entering Week 3, coming off of the 8-109-0 stat line against the Seahawks (50% target share), he was invisible after a few early receptions.

Henry now has a pair of games with under four fantasy points surrounding that 18.9-point effort, making him representative of what the tight end position is outside of a few strong options.

I understand that it’s the TE position and literally anything can happen, but if I’m going to roll the dice, I’m prioritizing the competency of the offense over anything else. In that vein, I’m passing on Henry — you simply cannot make me invest in this offense.

If you’re committed to Henry, the 49ers have allowed the most slot yardage in the league this season, and he owns a 43.5% slot target share for New England. Again, I have my doubts about the value of those individual targets, but they project to be his at the very least.

George Kittle Fantasy Outlook

Coming off of a strong showing in Minnesota (7-76-1), Kittle was inactive last week with a hamstring injury. Sadly, this is kind of the cost of doing business.

San Francisco’s star tight end hasn’t played a full set of games since 2018. With a 74.2% career catch rate from Purdy, not to mention a touchdown once every 10.3 targets from the artist formerly known as Mr. Irrelevant, Kittle deserves to be locked into your lineup anytime the 49ers put him out on the field. It also doesn’t hurt that he was targeted on 27.6% of his routes in Week 2, and that was with Deebo Samuel Sr. active.

In the event that you’re still skittish, the Patriots’ defense is plenty stout. However, Tyler Conklin did catch five of six targets for a career-high 93 yards against them last Thursday night.

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Raiders -1
• Total: 37.5
• Browns implied points: 18.3
• Raiders implied points: 19.3

Deshaun Watson Fantasy Outlook

Watson threw a 24-yard dime to Amari Cooper for a score on the first play from scrimmage last week, a great sign for a QB who entered the game with just two deep completions on 14 attempts.

The good vibes didn’t last long.

Cooper was largely invisible for the next three quarters, and Watson misfired on five of six deep passes after that highlight play as his Browns fell to the Giants. I understand the desire to attack a Raiders defense that coughed up 36 points to the Panthers last weekend, but I’m not even close to doing it in a 1QB league or any sort of DFS setting.

Will Levis, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson.

Those are the only quarterbacks with a lower passer rating when blitzed this season than Watson, a major problem with the fifth-most aggressive defense on the other side of the ball this week. Cleveland is pretty clearly (and rightly so) about putting the game in the hands of Watson, thus, making this coin-flip game one that is unlikely to give him a volume boost.

The sparks I saw last week were enough for me to trust Cooper (assuming health), not Watson when it comes to our purposes.

Gardner Minshew II Fantasy Outlook

Antonio Pierce went to Aidan O’Connell down the stretch of Week 3’s blowout loss to the Panthers (I was wrong, I thought I’d go all season without typing those last five words in succession) and said post-game that he saw a bit of a “spark” with the backup under center.

Take that for what you will. For fantasy purposes at the QB position, who starts for Vegas doesn’t matter. However, there are some interesting splits to consider when it comes to the Raiders’ pass catchers.

Jerome Ford Fantasy Outlook

After a week where his role was in question, Ford played 82.5% of the snaps last week and managed 70 yards on 13 touches. The 25-year-old has shown enough versatility to stay on Flex radars, though the possibility of his role changing from week to week makes him a tough player to count on.

Ford has elevated in my ranks from a Flex option to an RB2, but that’s more the result of those around him falling (Rachaad White, D’Andre Swift, and Rhamondre Stevenson, to name a few).

Zamir White Fantasy Outlook

It’s possible that no running back has underwhelmed more through three weeks than White. For the season, he’s averaging just 0.45 points per touch and checks in 38.4% below expectations, the second-worst rate among regulars.

White managers ran into some misfortune last week as he got the first six carries before coming out for a blow. With Alexander Mattison on the field, Minshew picked up a questionable third down. The Raiders, in an effort to prevent a challenge, ran hurry up, and Mattison cashed in with a short touchdown dive.

If not for the sped up offense, does White get back on the field? It’s possible, though White’s lack of versatility is what resulted in him coming off the field in the first place, which is damning for his fantasy stock moving forward.

White holds the lead role in an NFL offense, and that requires he be rostered. However, he’s not a top-30 play at the position for me in a less-than-perfect matchup.

Alexander Mattison Fantasy Outlook

Mattison has scored in consecutive games, but as mentioned, there’s some fluke in that.

What isn’t a mistake is that he has 19 touches across three games for an offense that ranks below average. Nothing Mattison has put on tape during his career suggests he’s a strong option if given the lead role, let alone if he’s on the wrong end of a 65/35 split.

Mattison can be rostered in deeper leagues where a handful of touches holds value. But in standard-sized leagues that often come with shallow benches, he doesn’t need to be stashed with any level of urgency.

Amari Cooper Fantasy Outlook

Cooper made an All-Pro catch on the left sideline for a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage last week — and then promptly went invisible for nearly three quarters.

Consistency is going to continue to be an issue for this offense, but Cooper profiles as the one player who can still get to the finish line more often than not due to his ability to make the big play.

That said, he’s not immune. Cooper wasn’t a top-50 receiver in either of the first two weeks this season, an outcome that needs to be considered before plugging him into your lineups. I think his connection with Watson is enough to justify a weekly spot in your lineups, but I can say that Cooper’s stock is as bulletproof as I expected it to be during draft season.

Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Outlook

My concern with Jeudy is that there isn’t much role upside to explore. He’s seen at least six targets in every game this season, and yet, he’s averaging 41.7 yards per game.

Touchdowns are going to be difficult to come by in this offense, so if the yardage ceiling is low, Jeudy isn’t a real threat to ever crack your lineup.

I think you can hold him for now, but when you’re trimming the roster fat in the coming month, his name shouldn’t be considered untouchable.

Davante Adams Fantasy Outlook

Adams has just one top-25 finish on his résumé this season, but I think his value got a little bit of a boost with Minshew was listed as the starter … for now.

With 27 targets in a surprising efficient passing game, it’s hard to really complain. This offense is just limited by many factors, which caps the value of any one of his targets.

That said, this is exactly what you signed up for in drafting Adams. You weren’t expecting week-to-week greatness like he had in Green Bay. You’re going to have to embrace some valleys, but the raw talent and positive game scripts figure to produce more than a few peaks for your troubles.

Jakobi Meyers Fantasy Outlook

Meyers has caught 14 of 17 targets this season and just seems to make plays when given the opportunity. He doubled his career touchdown receptions count last season with eight, and while the ability to find the end zone is valuable, it’s not something we can count on in an offense with a low expected point total and two pass catchers pretty clearly ahead of him on the depth chart.

I like Meyers’ prospects more if this offense were to shift to O’Connell, but I’m not sure we’re there yet. Meyers should remain rostered because positive game scripts will likely be commonplace, but in anything but an ideal matchup, he’s not flirting with my Flex spot.

Maybe next week? Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins will all be on bye, and Adams will likely draw a Pat Surtain II shadow. We can address that bridge when we get to it, but for now, he’s nothing more than a stash.

If we do in fact get a change under center, it’s worth noting that Meyers averages 34.3% more PPR points per target from O’Connell than Adams since the start of last season.

David Njoku Fantasy Outlook

After not practicing all week, Njoku was inactive last week, his second straight DNP due to a nagging ankle injury. In his absence, the Browns have had no one step up, solidifying his status as a TE1 the moment Cleveland activates him.

Will that be this weekend? Keep tabs on the reporting; this team doesn’t go on bye until Week 9, so it’s likely that Njoku will have to work through this ailment before getting the extended ramp up week. If he clears all hurdles, he’ll be a top-10 play for me against a Raiders defense that has allowed a touchdown on 5.2% of passes (10th-highest rate).

Brock Bowers Fantasy Outlook

If one down week is enough for you to panic on Bowers, you don’t deserve him. He was a top-five producer at the position in the first two games of his career. You’re just being greedy if you expected a prime Travis Kelce season from this uber-prospect.

I’ve got this week projected to be closer to Week 3 (3-41-0) than the standout first two weeks (average: 7.5-78-0). Bowers has more slot catches this season (11) than Adams and Meyers combined (five apiece), a role I like long term for sustainable production but less so in a matchup against a defense that is allowing the lowest completion percentage to the slot in the league (50%, league average: 70%).

Bowers managers (for the most part) drafted someone who they presumed would be their TE1 ahead of him. If that’s the case, I’m likely advising you to play that other option.

If Bowers is your only tight end, he’s talented enough to overcome a tough spot, so I wouldn’t rearrange your roster just to make room for a dart throw TE2.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• Spread: Chiefs -8
• Total: 39
• Chiefs implied points: 23.5
• Chargers implied points: 15.5

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook

Mahomes has as many top 12 finishes at the position this season as Andy Dalton, and yet, the Chiefs continue to win. This continues a disturbing (for fantasy) trend that emerged last season for Kansas City — winning games in bunches without piling up fantasy numbers.

That said, Mahomes is still to be considered a weekly starter without much thought. It’s clear that he has a bonafide star in Rashee Rice, and with a running game influx after the Isiah Pacheco injury, I’m projecting enough volume from Mahomes through the air to land him as a top-five option moving forward.

Last week, the first without Pacheco, Mahomes had nearly as many completions (26) as he averaged attempts prior (26.5). He’s going to be just fine, something we might get proof of on Sunday against a Chargers defense that he lit up for 424 yards and four scores last October.

Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook

Herbert is pretty clearly laboring through this ankle injury, though I’m not sold how much different this offense would look if he was fully healthy. This is destined to be a low-octane unit that doesn’t offer much in the way of upside for our purposes.

Through three weeks, Herbert doesn’t have a 30-yard completion, 145 passing yards in a game, or a weekly finish better than QB18. With the bye awaiting Los Angeles in Week 5, don’t be surprised if he rests this week with the hope of improving as the season progresses.

I’m okay with labeling what we’ve seen as a floor, but I’m not expecting Herbert to be a high-volume option at any point this season, which will keep him off the QB1 radar.

Carson Steele Fantasy Outlook

Pacheco vacated 20.5 touches and 94.5 total yards per game, a role that Steele seems poised to assume the majority of. He’s obviously not Pacheco, but Steele runs with a similar “hit or be hit” style. That allowed him to pick up at least five yards on 47.1% of his carries, as he got his first taste of an RB1 role that he should hold through October at the very least.

This role is going to land Steele around RB20 in my weekly rankings, with a slight adjustment in either direction based on the matchup. With the uncertainty around Kareem Hunt’s involvement and the fact that the Chargers own the third-highest rush success rate thus far, Steele is a Flex play for me more than an RB2. Nevertheless, I’m still playing him in most spots in which I have him.

Kareem Hunt Fantasy Outlook

Hunt was left on the practice squad last week, something that figures to change in short order as the Chiefs attempt to replace the massive hole left by Pacheco. Last season with the Browns, Hunt scored nine times during the regular season, not to mention a pair of trips to paydirt in the playoff loss. But was he a little lucky to return fantasy production at that level?

In consecutive seasons, the now 29-year-old has posted career lows in both yards per carry before and after contact. In a backfield with many similar options that appears destined to be an aggravating committee, a lack of efficiency is a deal breaker.

Hunt should be rostered due to the uncertainty of touch distribution in one of the league’s best offenses, but he’s nowhere close to starting consideration until we see some proof of concept.

Samaje Perine Fantasy Outlook

The idea around Perine was that his third-down role would add a dimension to KC’s offense, but with Hunt’s addition, is there enough volume to justify keeping him?

Long term, I’d argue no, though I would advise hanging onto him through this week at the very least as we get a feel for what this three-headed committee looks like.

Perine got his hands on the ball nine times last week in Atlanta, something I view much more as a ceiling than an expectation.

J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Outlook

Dobbins was heavily featured last week as he continues his run of concerning usage for a player with his track record (two-yard run, two-yard run, three-yard catch to open up the game). Yet, the results simply weren’t there (15 carries for 44 yards against Pittsburgh).

It was a tough matchup where game script didn’t lean heavily in his favor. Why would we expect anything different this weekend?

Dobbins’ role as the lead man in a run-centric offense is safe, and that makes him a viable starter. However, asking him to produce the RB1 numbers that he did through two weeks is simply too much.

You’re still starting LA’s lead man, but I’d highly consider the idea of moving on from him before this game kicks off while he’s still widely viewed as a top-15 option — that window could close in short order.

Gus Edwards Fantasy Outlook

Edwards is the definition of roster fat. Does his role potentially hold value? In theory, yes. He’s behind an injury-prone back and has shown the potential to take advantage of short-yardage opportunities.

In practice, not so much. This is a low-octane offense with little hope at supporting multiple backs. If Dobbins were to go down, Edwards would hold value but not an overwhelming amount given his limited skill set.

I’m not making an excuse to cut Edwards if there isn’t upside on the wire, but by no means am I tied to him holding onto a roster spot. The Chargers go on bye next week, so you could cut ties now, and if you feel strongly about him, you can add him two weeks from today.

Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook

Rice is a certified star at this point who needs to be talked about as such. This passing game relies on his ability to create yards after the catch, and that has taken away any concerns when it comes to his route count — something that was being managed this time last season.

If you take Rice’s numbers from his 12 highest route run regular-season games and extend it for an entire season:

114 catches
1,366 yards
8.5 touchdowns

Does any of that sound crazy? Due to the off-the-field issues this summer, Rice is positioned to be the most popular player on fantasy title teams this winter.

Xavier Worthy Fantasy Outlook

Xavier was plenty Worthy in his NFL debut (WR9), but he’s finished outside of the top 50 at the position in each of the past two weeks, and I’m not sure we see that change this week.

The per-play upside is always going to be there, and Andy Reid’s creativity is dangerous to bet against, but I’m more likely to roll the dice on him in a high possession count environment, something that is unlikely to occur in this matchup with the slowest moving offense in the NFL.

Worthy is the perfect bye week, high-upside flier to roster. I hope he turns into more during the second half of the season, but I’m not overly optimistic as Mahomes’ aDOT continues to regress.

Ladd McConkey Fantasy Outlook

I mentioned the slow moving nature of this Chargers offense, and that is only amplified when they refuse to throw the ball to their receivers.

During their first two drives last week, not a single receiver was targeted — a major problem when we aren’t sure about the hierarchy of looks in this offense in the first place.

McConkey earned 31.6% of the targets in last week’s loss to the Steelers, which looks like a big number — much the way a 30-year-old sounds really old to a 9-year-old kid.

It’s all contextual. That target rate doesn’t mean much in an offense completing 15 passes per game. In a low-volume offense like LA’s, I’m more apt to pass on the target earners and chase those getting the few dangerous looks that present themselves.

This rookie is a fine player, but not one that I realistically see me ranking as a starter much (if at all) moving forward.

Quentin Johnston Fantasy Outlook

Does this recent production stick?

In theory, it could this week as the Chiefs have seen 33.3% more end-zone passes thrown against them than any other defense in the league. That said, I remain sketpical.

Johnston scored last week on a broken coverage, and we have a rookie season of tape to suggest that him producing 85.9% over expectation (second best at the position) isn’t likely to stick.

Herbert threw his first five passes last week to five different players. This is a low-volume offense without a clear role distinction for any of the receivers. You can chase the points you’ve missed from Johnston over the past two weeks, I’m not.

Joshua Palmer Fantasy Outlook

A combination injury (elbow, calf) resulted in Palmer being inactive last week in Pittsburgh. However, you could sell his fantasy managers that he was essentially inactive through the first two weeks of the season (13.6% target share, fifth on the team in receiving yards).

In theory, the game script should work in Palmer’s favor in this spot, but that shouldn’t place him anywhere near starting lineups. The volume of passes in LA’s offense is never going to overwhelm, and the fact that his role (and health) isn’t a given, he’s a droppable asset for any semblance of upside on the wire.

Palmer Receiving Rates

2023: 12.3 aDOT, 37.7% slot usage, 18% target share
2024: 8.5 aDOT, 27.1% slot usage, 14.6% target share

Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook

I don’t want to say this was predictable, but expecting the Chiefs to prioritize September football was a miscalculation for anyone who made it.

Through three weeks, Kelce has 69 receiving yards. He cleared 70 yards in all four playoff games last season, and that’s exactly how Kansas City wants this season to go.

The Chiefs are undefeated, and Mahomes has been praising defenses for keying on Kelce. But it’s clear that the traditional “Kelce role” now belongs to Rice.

For the season, he’s posted a 13% on-field target share. Yes, that’s as underwhelming as it sounds. It would be his first sub-21% campaign since 2015. As you look deeper at the box scores, it doesn’t get any better (58% of his receiving yards this season have come on two receptions).

You’re starting Kelce this week and every week in which he is healthy because you don’t have another option. If you drafted him, you neglected the position otherwise.

Grin and bear it. There will be ceiling games, and you want to make sure that you get paid off during them. But you made your bed by misevaluating the Kelce situation this summer, and now you have to sleep in it.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -2.5
• Total: 46
• Bills implied points: 21.8
• Ravens implied points: 24.3

Josh Allen Fantasy Outlook

I don’t know what it is about these alpha quarterbacks, but once you remove their top receiver, it seems like it hones their focus. We saw it from Patrick Mahomes in the post-Tyreek Hill era, and we’re seeing it now from Allen.

On top of all the special things he can do with his legs, Allen has completed 75% of his passes this season, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and has yet to throw an interception.

He’s coming off of a Monday nighter against the Jags where he was his own worst fantasy enemy. If Buffalo wasn’t scoring so consistently, he would have been pushed to do even more.

Allen wasn’t asked to do much in Week 2’s blowout win over the Dolphins, a game played on short rest, but a script that I don’t think lines up with what we get in this marquee matchup. In his most recent 11 games played on short rest prior to that one:

• 292.5 pass yards
• 28 TDs / 2 INTs
• 7 rush TDs
• 28.3 FPPG

The only question to ask with Allen is for DFS Showdown managers — who is the top-scoring signal-caller in this game?

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Outlook

Allen is now the betting favorite to win MVP this season. He’s been great, but this defense deserves more attention.

The Cardinals scored on the first possession of the season against the Bills, but since then, Buffalo has allowed just 41 points, with the defense on the hook for only 34 of them (Arizona had a 96-yard kick-return touchdown by DeeJay Dallas).

That’s more of something to consider as this season progresses. You’re not even close to considering a secondary option if you roster Jackson, the reigning MVP who is one of two quarterbacks to rank top 10 in all three weeks this season (Sam Darnold because, of course, is the other QB on that list).

Jackson’s aDOT is down 20.2% from last season, something that I think will change with time as the combining of forces with Derrick Henry takes shape. Outside of that little nit that I’m picking, there’s nothing to be concerned about.

Last week was a low-volume spot due to game script — that’s going to happen on occasion in an offense with Henry running over defenders. Jackson is my QB2 this week, and the only reason he isn’t QB1 is that spot is essentially reserved for “QB facing Washington.”

James Cook Fantasy Outlook

Cook has both a rush and a catch gaining at least 13 yards in all three games this season, flexing his versatility for all the world to see as Buffalo’s offense piles up the points.

Through three games, Cook has produced 52.5% more points than expected, the third-highest rate at the position. Normally, I’d highlight a stat like that as a way to point to regression, but given the variety of ways in which Cook can threaten defenses, I’m not sure that what he’s done up to this point isn’t here to stay.

Cook is an RB1 moving forward, and that’s without dominating the work inside the 10-yard line. He’s a unique player in a perfect situation who you were able to get at a bargain this summer.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook

It didn’t take long for us to get a Henry game where the game script and matchup lined up perfectly. The best defense can be a good offense against the Bills, something that has me projecting another 18+ touch effort from The King.

It’s early, but Henry is averaging his most yards per carry before contact since his rookie season and is producing above expectation at the highest rate of his storied concern. He’s a top-five running back for me this week, and I expect that to be the case more often than not moving forward as he wears down defenses.

Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook

The conversation as to who the WR1 in Buffalo is might be over after three weeks. Shakir was the most efficient receiver in football last season, and for an encore, he’s caught his first 14 targets this season, producing 79.3% over expectation in the process.

Through three weeks, no other Bills receiver has more than six receptions. Could that flip on a week-to-week basis?

It’s possible; we are fresh off of watching Allen dice up the Jaguars with a variety of receivers benefiting. However, Shakir appears to be the weekly percentage play and is now in the WR3 conversation for me.

How about this? I’m actually more comfortable with Shakir when his team is fully healthy than the man he replaced as the lead target earner, Stefon Diggs.

Keon Coleman Fantasy Outlook

The post-draft interviews were great, and there is some promise in Coleman’s profile, but single-digit target shares in consecutive games isn’t worth our time. Coleman is a cut candidate in a roster crunch; you’re never going to feel great about Flexing him.

Curtis Samuel Fantasy Outlook

This offseason, much was made of Samuel joining Joe Brady’s offense, but maybe someone forgot to tell Joe Brady.

Samuel ranks dead last among Buffalo’s receivers in snap share, and he’s never been an elite target earner, putting him in a near-impossible spot to offer any sort of value. Like Coleman, you can cut ties without much of a concern should a player with a more direct path to upside appear on your waiver wire.

Zay Flowers Fantasy Outlook

I don’t want to call him a post-hype sleeper because he was productive last season, but I think we could see Flowers take a massive step as this season wears on. Step 1 could well be under the bright lights on Sunday.

This might actually be the perfect buying window. Flowers was quiet last week in Dallas (3-20-0) in large part because the Ravens led for 91.7% of their offensive snaps, creating a Henry-friendy game script.

Flowers is a top-12 receiver for me this week due to the matchup, on top of my excitement about him as a developing talent. Buffalo is the best perimeter defense in the league, and it’s not close. Opponents have completed just 15 of 35 passes when throwing out wide (4.2 yards per attempt) with four interceptions against one touchdown.

Best Perimeter Defenses, Passer Rating

Bills: 25.2
Steelers: 63.0
Seahawks: 64.5
Saints: 70.1
Raiders: 74.0

That sounds like I’m talking down this Baltimore attack, right? Wrong.

This season, only 36% of Flowers’ targets have come on the perimeter, down significantly from 62% as a rookie. If the Flowers manager is asleep at the wheel, offering a deal for him might be a sharp move before your lineup locks for this week.

Rashod Bateman Fantasy Outlook

Bateman scored last week, but it was more a result of Dallas’ fear in Jackson’s ability to beat them on the ground than anything he realistically did right. You’ve got those perimeter insights for Buffalo’s defense — 10 of Bateman’s 13 targets this season have come when lined up out wide.

The tight ends in Baltimore might be frustrating, but they’re both ahead of Bateman in terms of where the targets are likely to go. That makes the Ravens’ WR2 not an asset fantasy managers need to worry about.

Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Outlook

The early touchdown against the Jaguars may have had you feeling like the true breakout game was coming, but the rug was taken out from under us again.

Kincaid Production

• Quarter 1: 4 receptions, 5 targets, 51 yards, 1 TD, 15.1 points
• Quarters 2-4: 4 receptions, 6 targets, 34 yards, 0 TD, 7.4 points

In theory, this is a good trend to see. To me, it means that Kincaid is involved in the scripted portion of the game plan and that Allen is comfortable in going his way. But then, it just evaporates and leaves us wanting more.

Everything from Kincaid’s target share to his yards per route run essentially mirror what he did as a rookie. In a perfect world, we’d have seen some growth at this point, especially due to the departures of Diggs and Gabe Davis, but not so much.

I’m sticking tight and believe that Kincaid is on the short list of players who could lead the position in PPR points for the remainder of the season. Allen is playing at a high level, and that will raise all tides, especially for a promising young talent like Kincaid.

Josh Allen putting himself on a nice list through three weeks … pic.twitter.com/9KVRVr8Ear

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 24, 2024

Start him every week. Keep him on your roster. The wait will be worth it.

Isaiah Likely Fantasy Outlook

In the standalone Week 1 game that he nearly scored the game-winning touchdown in, Likely earned 12 targets on 35 routes. He looked like the future at the position, an athlete being weaponized in the offense of a creative mind.

Over the past two weeks, however, Likely has seen just four passes thrown his way on 28 routes. It’s almost like everyone at this position is a random number generator on a weekly basis.

The Bills have allowed a league-high 11 red-zone completions, a fact that when combined with the point projection for this game, keeps Likely on the TE1 radar. He’s not trending in the best direction, but …

Mark Andrews Fantasy Outlook

Cade Stover: Kitchen appliance salesman or NFL player?
Dan Eaton: Local food expert or NFL player?
Payne Durham: WWE stage name or NFL player?
Jake Tonges: Ear, nose, and throat doctor or NFL player?

Three of those four are NFL players who ran more routes in Week 3 than Mark Andrews and one isn’t. Can you tell the difference?

The casual fan might not be able to, which is alarming for Andrews’ status moving forward. It’s not as if Likely was out there running circles around the Cowboys, yet he ran 11 routes to Andrews’ six on 17 Jackson dropbacks — meaning the two-TE sets, for a week at least, were a thing of the past.

Of course, Baltimore controlling this game and recording three times as many rush attempts as passes is to blame for this in a significant way. But I wouldn’t have said a snap share/route participation metric like that was even within the range of outcomes for the not-so-long-ago Tier 1 tight end.

The state of the position makes Andrews not only rosterable but startable in a game that should see plenty of points put on the board. Yet, any hope at returning value on your summer investment is long gone.

Each of Baltimore’s next four games come against offenses that can function at a high level and, thus, demand offensive aggression from the Ravens or a complete disaster on the defensive end. Andrews has a chance to rebound in short order and is a viable buy-low option for aggressive managers who are confident in their ability to stream the position should these struggles continue.

Andrews and Likely are both fringe TE1s for me this week, ranking alongside Mike Gesicki (at Carolina) and Pat Freiermuth (at Indianapolis).

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Dolphins -1
• Total: 37
• Titans implied points: 18
• Dolphins implied points: 19

Will Levis Fantasy Outlook

Levis looked good during the opening 10-play drive against the Packers last weekend that ended with a one-yard TD pass to Nick Vannett. It was a glimpse of what Levis can do, but he was late on a hitch to start the next drive, and it was six points in the other direction.

That’s Levis in a nutshell. He isn’t void of talent, he’s void of consistency. We can split hairs on that all you want, but there’s a ton of development that needs to take place for him to be a viable fantasy option.

I think this game stays tight, and I actually think that works against Levis’ value. Tennessee doesn’t want him making high-leverage plays, making me think he struggles to reach the 31.3 pass attempts that he’s currently averaging.

Levis is my favorite QB in this game, but neither is a safe play, even in leagues that mandate you play two quarterbacks.

Skylar Thompson Fantasy Outlook

This offense was a mess last week.

I take that back, I don’t want to offend the word “mess”.

Miami managed just three points against Seattle last week, three points that came gift-wrapped via an interception that put the Dolphins’ offense at the Seahawks’ 6-yard line. They worked hard for the two yards they went on to gain and got their points.

Miami’s offense is in serious trouble. The expectations were low for the backup QBs, but their ineptitude in terms of featuring a single receiver was alarming — no Dolphin earned even 17% of the targets in Week 3.

Tony Pollard Fantasy Outlook

Pollard may never live up to the hype that we built for him while in Dallas, but he’s a featured running back that can’t be scripted out of any game due to his versatility.

Tennessee’s limitations on offense (yet to clear 17 points in a game) prevent its lead back from pushing into my top 15 at the position. However, Pollard’s touch volume locks him in as a reasonable RB2.

I like this game to stay close, and with Miami allowing the fifth-most yards per carry after contact, the opportunity for Pollard to break a chunk play is certainly there.

Tyjae Spears Fantasy Outlook

We had hoped that Spears’ role in a post-Derrick Henry era would look different, but it really hasn’t. He remains comfortably behind Pollard in touch count and is being used as a change-of-pace option more than anything.

Spears is relying on efficiency as a pass catcher (he’s caught all 10 of his targets) in an offense that is anything but consistent through the air. He’s much closer to a fantasy roster casualty than a viable starter.

The holding of Spears is a stubborn move based on his talent, nothing that we’ve seen from this franchise in terms of usage for their 2023 third-round pick.

De’Von Achane Fantasy Outlook

Jaylen Wright was involved early last week, but every report coming out of Miami centers around its desire to maximize Achane’s touch count.

We got proof of concept with a 22-yard catch to open Week 3, giving Achane a 15+ yard catch in all three games this season. The carry count has been capped by a pair of blowout losses (outscored 55-13), but with this game being evaluated as a coin flip, penciling in Achane for 18-20 touches is plenty reasonable, and that lands him as an RB1.

There is one Dolphin I still feel good about, and Achane is it.

Raheem Mostert Fantasy Outlook

The veteran RB missed a second consecutive game (chest), and given how this offense looked with Thompson starting (and, eventually Tim Boyle), it’s hard to imagine Mostert holding any sort of value in the short term, even when deemed healthy.

The appeal of the Dolphins coming into the season was their creativity and high-scoring environments.

Calvin Ridley Fantasy Outlook

We desperately need the reckless version of Levis if any of his receivers is going to pay off, and we didn’t really get that last week. Instead, the second-year quarterback got four different players a catch on Tennessee’s first drive, and Ridley wasn’t one of them.

With DeAndre Hopkins’ snap count trending up, there’s a duplication of skills that figures to be an issue. I don’t doubt that one of these big-play receivers can be an asset, but I find it unlikely that the same name fills that role on any sort of a consistent basis.

DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy Outlook

It’s a slow grind, but Hopkins was up to a 45.3% snap share last week against the Packers last week (his highest of the season), and it resulted in a top-20 finish at the position.

I still have Ridley ranked as the WR1 in Tennessee’s offense (both for Week 1 and for the rest of the season). However, betting on any member of this passing game to be anything more than a risk/reward Flex option who requires a touchdown to pay off your confidence is a step I’m not willing to take.

Tyreek Hill Fantasy Outlook

Be careful. Hill is still a fantasy starter, but I’m not beholden to that beyond this week if we don’t see signs of life.

Miami’s WR1 hasn’t been a top-40 receiver in consecutive weeks, which means he has matched his total of such performances from last season. Part of what made this offense so explosive under Tagovailoa was the versatility and misdirection, but if defenses aren’t concerned about the quarterback making the proper reads, none of the motion matters.

I’m hopeful that, with two weeks to work in a new system, that Miami’s offense can adapt to having a backup under center. Yet, if Monday night looks anything like last Sunday, I could see a world in which Hill doesn’t crack my top 30 in Week 5 at Foxboro.

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Outlook

Waddle has been efficient this season (13 catches on 14 targets), and while that’s a plus for his floor, it’s come at the cost of his ceiling.

• Week 1: 14.4 aDOT
• Weeks 2-3: 4.3 aDOT

In my opinion, there’s no denying Waddle’s talent, but I’m not sure he can overcome the limitations of Miami’s offense in his current role. I’m open to the idea of being wrong, but he’s my WR37 this week, ranking next to other receivers with trigger pullers who I don’t trust (Michael Pittman Jr., Courtland Sutton, and both Titans receivers).

Jonnu Smith Fantasy Outlook

Smith was a popular sleeper in August, being labeled as cheap exposure to an elite offense. That thought process was fine, but with the Dolphins’ offense about as far as possible from “elite”, you don’t need to be tempted by this athletic profile.

For the season, Smith has nine catches, three of which came in a single quarter (two on a single drive). He’s been held under 20 yards in two of three games and carries very little scoring equity until there is improved play under center.

If Tagovailoa comes back in the second half of the season, we can revisit this situation. Until then, there isn’t a league deep enough for me to go this direction.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

• Spread: Lions -4
• Total: 46.5
• Seahawks implied points: 21.3
• Lions implied points: 25.3

Geno Smith Fantasy Outlook

In theory, an indoor game with a banged-up starting RB in an underdog role should be the perfect spot for Smith, but we’ve yet to see much in the way of projectable upside.

Through three weeks, Smith has more multi-interception games than multi-pass touchdown games. That’s not ideal for a player who isn’t much of a threat with his legs (yes, I know that 34-yard TD in Week 1 was fun, but let’s be honest, he has 36 rushing yards this season), especially when you consider that the lack of touchdowns isn’t the result of a lack of opportunity (78 pass attempts over the past two weeks).

Generally speaking, Smith isn’t my cup of tea from a profile standpoint, but there is an avenue to landing on him in a GPP DFS build if you’re swinging for the fences. He’s been borderline unstoppable when not pressured through three weeks (57 of 69 for 545 yards and two touchdowns), a nice skill to have when facing a Detroit defense that is just a middle-of-the-pack pressure unit.

Could Aidan Hutchinson wreck this game and live in the backfield? Of course he could, but Detroit’s decline as a team in pressure rate (19th this season after ranking third last season) is alarming.

A Smith/Metcalf/St. Brown game stack you say? I’m listening, though you need to be aware that there is obvious risk in building out such a lineup.

Jared Goff Fantasy Outlook

The Lions are 2-1 and remain positioned to be a threat to represent the NFC when all is said and done this winter, but their wins haven’t looked anything like what we expected.

Lions Wins

• 2023: 30.8 PPG in regulation
• 2024: 20.0 PPG in regulation

Goff has yet to finish a week better than QB14 this season despite three matchups that grade out as more favorable than what he faces this week (Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Rams). I think that QB14 number is the right range this week as it puts him in the same area as other pocket-locked QBs like Derek Carr and Sam Darnold.

Goff isn’t a must start, but he’s not such a bad play that you need to roll the dice in free agency. The best is yet to come from Goff, making this a situation where patience will be rewarded.

Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Outlook

Reporting out of Seattle seems to be optimistic that Walker will be able to return from an oblique injury in Week 4 after missing a pair of games, giving him multiple DNPs for the third consecutive season.

As the lead back in the Week 1 win over the Broncos, Walker looked the part of an elite value at his ADP, carrying 20 times for 103 yards and a score. Expecting him to come right off the injury and assume elite work is a step I’m not willing to take. Plus, the Lions’ run defense is coming off of a strong performance in which they held Cardinals running backs to 32 yards on 13 carries.

That said, Zach Charbonnet has 40 carries this season but has yet to break a run of more than 13 yards. The touch count might not lean heavily in Walker’s favor in his return to action, but there’s no denying where the upside resides.

In a game that should see plenty of points scored, I’m planning on having Walker starting in all leagues in which I have him — thinking that the upside is greater than the downside that comes with some dispersion of touches.

Zach Charbonnet Fantasy Outlook

If ever there was any doubt about Seattle’s backup plan when Walker is sidelined, that was put to bed in Weeks 2-3. In two games against the AFC East, Charbonnet turned 32 carries and nine targets into 176 yards and three scores.

In Sunday’s win over Miami, he was the only Seahawks player with a rushing attempt until garbage time. While there weren’t any real splash plays in his 21-touch afternoon, he was plenty productive for those who plugged him in.

I think it’s fair to pencil him in for roughly 80% of Walker’s production when he sits, but asking this backfield to support two fantasy-viable RBs is a step I’m not willing to take.

You’ll want to monitor Walker’s official status as Week 4 nears, but in setting early lineups, I’d have Charbonnet riding the pine with Walker penciled back in atop this depth chart.

Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Outlook

The hook-and-ladder touchdown was a thing of beauty, and while it added eight points to your scoresheet, the idea behind the play meant more to me than the counting numbers.

The idea that Detroit is willing to scheme up creativity towards their star RB is a ceiling elevator. We are three weeks into the season and Gibbs has two games with a touchdown, two games with over 80 rushing yards, and two games with at least six targets.

The versatility and explosive potential makes Gibbs a perfect fit for Detroit’s offense and a legitimate threat to lead the position in fantasy points this season.

David Montgomery Fantasy Outlook

Touchdowns are the most sticky of stats. They are reliant on a variety of factors, but the Lions’ offense chews up yardage, and Montgomery is the number that gets called when it’s time to finish drives.

The veteran RB has scored in six straight regular-season games, and he was featured out of the games last week in Arizona (handled all six Lions rush attempts and scored on their first drive).

In this committee era, there are plenty of backfields that don’t really have a single option you can trust. Don’t let that skew how you evaluate the situation in Detroit.

DK Metcalf Fantasy Outlook

Defenses can enter a game with the Seahawks with the goal of taking away the chunk gain by Metcalf, but executing that plan is an entirely different conversation.

Metcalf has a 50+ yard reception in consecutive games after a dud in Week 1, and with the Lions owning the second-highest opponent average depth of target since last season (8.9 yards, league average: 7.7 yards), another big play (or two) could be in store.

Smith’s limitations as a passer have a greater impact on the secondary options in this offense. You can feel just fine about starting Metcalf every single week, even with a wide range of outcomes in his profile.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Outlook

Hand up.

I was happy to label Smith-Njigba as a bulletproof Year 2 breakout after he lit up the Patriots for 12 catches and 117 yards in Week 2…I was wrong.

Sure, this could be a “I lost the battle but end up winning the war” situation, but even in that situation, I was too early in assuming that the former Buckeye was ready for lineup-lock status.

Strong receivers have bad games, it happens all the time. But it rarely comes with a sub-9% target share, something JSN has done in two of three games this season.

This projects as a favorable scoring environment, but due to the limitations of his quarterback, Smith-Njigba isn’t any different than other secondary options (the non-Nico Collins Texans and Rashid Shaheed types) or WR1s on underwhelming pass games (George Pickens and Terry McLaurin to name a few).

Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Outlook

After a brutal start to the season (3-13-0 and a WR52 finish in the overtime win over the Rams), St. Brown has posted a pair of top-15 finishes at the position, reminding all of us how safe his status is as an elite asset in our game.

The Seahawks have allowed just 43 points through three weeks, but they’ve played the Broncos, Patriots, and Tagovailoa-less Dolphins. I think the Lions don’t have a big problem reaching their implied total, and St. Brown averages 91.2 receiving yards when Detroit wins while scoring over 20 points.

Jameson Williams Fantasy Outlook

One catch for nine yards wasn’t exactly the encore we were looking for after a strong start to the season, but I remain bullish on Williams. He cleared a 70% snap share again and saw a pair of deep targets — they just didn’t connect.

You have to be willing to take the good with the bad in trusting a skill set like this (yes, I’m looking at you, Rashid Shaheed managers). Williams is going to be ranked as a mid-level WR2 for me more often than not, understanding that he will rarely finish in that range.

This is one of the few weeks I’m looking elsewhere. Opponents are 4 of 14 for 76 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions when throwing deep against Seattle this season. They are creating pressure on 44.2% of opponent dropbacks (third highest), making it tough to execute those bombs.

The upside is always there because whenever the Lions have the ball, Williams is in scoring position. However, if you wanted to play Smith-Njigba over Williams this week as you chase a (in theory) higher floor, I wouldn’t blame you in the slightest.

Noah Fant Fantasy Outlook

Fant is fresh off easily his best performance of the season (6-60-0) against the Dolphins. A strong performance after totaling just three receptions through two weeks.

His role in an offense with, when at full strength, two viable running backs and three receivers, is minimal at best, but I was intrigued by what I saw in Week 3.

If you believe the Lions are going to be playing with a lead, then you’re telling a story that involves a high pass expectation for Seattle, plus Fant accounted for 35.7% of the Seahawks’ first-down targets last week. He’s barely inside my top 20 at the position this week, but his value increases when you consider the potential that you may be waiting on the health of your starting tight end …

Sam LaPorta Fantasy Outlook

Initial reports from Dan Campbell are that the “low” ankle sprain LaPorta suffered last week was minor, and that his star tight end will have a chance to avoid missed time.

Through three weeks, LaPorta has just eight catches and 94 yards on the board despite a role that is nearly identical to what he filled in 2023 (83.1% snap share last season, 76.9% this season). His per-target production has been fine (0.08% over expectation), he’s just hasn’t been able to earn opportunities at the rate he was as a rookie, due in part to Williams’ breakout.

As mentioned, this isn’t an ideal spot for the burner, thus positioning LaPorta (assuming reasonable health), to offer fantasy managers a glimpse of why they spent early draft capital on him.

LaPorta has just one top-15 finish this season. I think he doubles that without much trouble in this spot and offers up his best finish of the season to date (TE7 in Week 1).

Should he sit, Brock Wright is the next man up, but I’d rather insure LaPorta with Fant in this same game if you want to have a tight end rostered to protect against a late scratch.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

• Spread: Cowboys -4.5
• Total: 44
• Cowboys implied points: 23.8
• Giants implied points: 19.3

Dak Prescott Fantasy Outlook

“There are no pictures on the scorecard.”

That saying, I’m told, is common in golf circles. When I golf, my scorecard reflects exactly how bad every shot of mine was, but when you’re good at something, sometimes you can save a bad day. That is what Prescott did last week against the Ravens, leading a furious comeback effort that ultimately fell short.

379 yards, three total touchdowns

That’ll play any week, but the fantasy point total reflects a higher level of play than what we saw for the majority of Week 3 from Prescott. That said, the confidence he gained from moving the ball late against a good Baltimore defense should carry over for this plus-matchup on a short work week.

Like the ‘Boys in this game? In Dallas’ last three road wins against the Giants, their franchise QB has averaged 325.3 pass yards while throwing 10 touchdown passes against just a single interception (118.9 passer rating).

Generally speaking, I’m lower than the industry on Prescott, so when I tell you that I have him inside my top 10, you should feel good about rolling him out there and getting a nice lead in your Week 4 matchup during the first game of the week.

Daniel Jones Fantasy Outlook

I spent all offseason worrying about Jones’ ability to support Malik Nabers, not once considering that the rookie might be able to support his quarterback’s production.

Mr. Dimes has recorded consecutive QB1 finishes and is the only signal-caller this season to have two straight games with at least 20 rushing yards and two touchdown passes (this is the third such streak of his career; he’s never reached three in a row).

I’m still gun-shy on Jones (without Nabers, I’m not sure how many touchdown passes he realistically would have this season), and his history in this matchup is all the fuel I need to continue to rank him outside of my top 15.

In his last four starts against America’s Team (all losses), Jones has completed just 54% of his passes (5.5 yards per attempt), with one of those 113 attempts resulting in six points. In those games, he’s run for 36.3 yards per game (zero touchdowns), a nice bump to his fantasy stock, not nearly enough to make him remotely close to viable in this spot.

There are better things to do on a Thursday night than have the fate of your fantasy roster tied to this Giants passing attack in any capacity.

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Outlook

Elliott has seen his snap share trend in the wrong direction (50% snap share in Week 1, 39.4% in Week 2, and just 20% last week), and without any explosion left in his veteran legs, you’re chasing a touchdown if you’re considering going this path.

In theory, this is the right situation to do that. You’ve got a heavy favorite on short rest, but what’s the ceiling? If Elliott’s touch count is going to tap out at 10, there’s a chance he could score and still not pay the bills (his next 10-yard rush this season will be his first).

If I have to pick a Cowboy back in this spot, it’s Elliott, but that’s the beauty in fantasy — you’re not under any obligation at all to play a Cowboy RB.

Rico Dowdle Fantasy Outlook

Dowdle was targeted on the first play of Week 3 and touched the ball on each of Dallas’ first three plays. In an offense that always ranks among the top 10 in pass rate over expectation, I love seeing consecutive five-target contests from the 26-year-old.

For me to commit to him as a Flex option, I need to see some growth in the snap share department. Dowdle has checked in between 43-46% in all three games this season, and with Elliott still the favorite to get the high-value rush attempts, that’s just not enough field time to realize the potential I believe him to have.

Elliott may be my pick for Week 4, but for Weeks 4-18, give me Dowdle as the top-scoring back in Dallas.

Devin Singletary Fantasy Outlook

Depending on how your Week 3 matchup ended will 100% skew how you view Singletary’s 108-yard, 18.8-PPR point performance in Cleveland. Of course, that stat line is strong and you’d sign up for 14 more of them for New York’s lead back, but he laid down on the one-yard line to end this game and cost you 6.1 fantasy points in the process.

That’s fantasy.

For every instance like this, you’ll have a receiver that was overthrown by 10 yards but the defense somehow butchers the interception and it actually results in a significant gain. If you play fantasy long enough, these odd happenings have a way of leveling out.

Singletary has played over 69% of the offensive snaps in all three Giant games this season, but he’s also lost a fumble in consecutive games. For a team operating on the margins offensively, the loss of possession is simply unacceptable.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (a fifth-round pick out of Purdue) isn’t yet a threat to take over this backfield, but he did have more touches against the Browns last week (seven) than he had total entering the game (five) and turned those opportunities into 40 yards.

Singletary remains an RB2 for the time being, but his hold on that role is tenuous. The Giants have been competitive in each of the past two weeks, something that might not be the case over the next month (Weeks 4-8: Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles, and Steelers).

In a less active league, you’re squeezing what value you can out of Singletary. If you’re the move-making type, it’s very possible that we are at the peak of the mountain in terms of his 2024 value and selling him to the highest bidder (maybe a desperate 1-2 manager who is struggling to deal with the Christian McCaffrey injury?) is the play.

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Outlook

A lost fumble in the red zone isn’t ideal, nor are whispers that the vibes in Big D aren’t exactly strong, but if there’s one thing we can all count on, it’s Lamb.

Despite the entire world knowing that this offense funnels through its WR1, Lamb is the only player in the league with a 30+ yard grab in all three weeks this season, a streak that could well continue against a defense that allows the third-most yards per catch after the reception since the beginning of last season.

The Cowboys handed Lamb the ball three times in the season-opening win in Cleveland, something I think there’s a good chance we see again as this team looks to rebound from consecutive losses. You can feel comfortable in the price you spent on Lamb — you’re going to be just fine long-term and you might have your Week 4 matchup in hand before a single game kicks off on Sunday.

Brandin Cooks Fantasy Outlook

I tried to warn you this summer that Father Time was closing in on Cooks. He scored on an all-out blitz in Week 1, but outside of that, all the red flags that presented themselves last season are even more evident this year.

In 2023, Cooks averaged a career-low 1.25 yards per route run — through three weeks, his rate is essentially half of that. Combine his declining efficiency with Prescott’s recent limitations as a road favorite (last six such spots: 210 passing yards per game without multiple scores on four occasions), and we are looking at a player who is nowhere near my starting lineup this week.

Jalen Tolbert has cleared 13 fantasy points in consecutive games and might out-earn Cooks moving forward given how things have looked over the last 12 months for the veteran. If you want to stash him as a bet against Cooks, you have my stamp of approval.

Malik Nabers Fantasy Outlook

If he continues to improve at this rate, he might be the greatest receiver in the league — by December.

OK, that might be a bit strong, but there isn’t a box the rookie has yet to check. Nabers is making plays at all three levels, turning incompletions into touchdowns, and being handed the ball on an early end-around, all things earning him the confidence of this coaching staff to continue to push the envelope.

Nabers’ usage, Weeks 2-3

• 45% of NYG receptions
• 49.5% of NYG receiving yards
• 50% of NYG targets

If I have to nitpick for this specific matchup, it’s that New York moved Nabers to the slot much more last week and that Dallas is the third-best yards-per-attempt defense when defending the slot.

If the G-Men push him back to the perimeter for 80% of his routes this week, another big game could be in store. Even if you don’t have confidence that this coaching staff will adjust, there’s no way you can justify sitting the role that Nabers has assumed.

Wan’Dale Robinson Fantasy Outlook

I wasn’t sure that this offense could sustain one pass catcher on a weekly basis and, as it turns out, I was right. They have two!

Robinson, albeit in a far less visually appealing manner than Nabers, has been lineup-worthy in a WR3/Flex sort of way in all three weeks. If you extend his current pace for an entire season, we are talking about roughly 85 catches and six touchdowns. Laugh all you want, but that is 2023 Chris Olave/DeVonta Smith but with less yardage.

His range of outcomes is very narrow, and that may not be an exciting profile, but I promise you that there will be a point over the next two months when you’re begging for a reliable PPR stat line.

For the first time this season, Robinson has cracked my top 40 at the position, and he needs to be rostered across the board with bye weeks approaching.

Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook

After missing Week 2, Ferguson was as involved as ever with a career-high 11 targets, solidifying himself as a lineup-lock for this pass-centric Cowboys offense.

Dallas entered the season with more questions at their WR2 position than most were willing to admit, as Brandin Cooks’ eight touchdown catches in 2023 masked a career low in yards per route run. Three weeks into this season, their WR2 role remains a big question mark, allowing Ferguson to spread his wings as a target earner.

• 2024: Targeted on 26.7% of his routes
• 2023: Targeted on 19.7% of his routes

Fantasy sports are often about focusing on what will be rather than getting hung up on what has been. The Cowboys have faced the Browns, Saints, and Ravens through three weeks — there’s a good chance those are three of their five toughest matchups this season.

Last week’s 6-95-0 stat line was just the beginning; you’ve got a difference-maker at the position that is the toughest to fill with confidence.