After having the league’s worst rushing attack in 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers are handing over the keys of the backfield to rookie Najee Harris. Can Harris perform up to his lofty fantasy football outlook, or has his ADP already reached its ceiling for the 2021 season?
Najee Harris’ fantasy outlook for 2021
For a franchise that has always prided themselves on establishing the run, 2020 was abysmal. The Steelers were 28th in attempts (373), 32nd in yards (1,351), 30th in RB fantasy points per game via the run (12.94), and 30th in fantasy points per rush (0.56).
Despite having massive needs all over their depth chart, the team made it clear this was their main point of emphasis by selecting Harris in the first round. That should tell us all we need to know about their game plan for Harris moving forward.
While James Conner became a fan favorite, Harris is an instant upgrade at the position. The Steelers have not had a back of his quality since Le’Veon Bell. This is a match made in heaven. Harris has the frame (6’1″ and 232 pounds) to be a true three-down back, and I expect to see him in that role from Day 1.
When it comes to Harris’ fantasy outlook, he has top-six potential despite being a rookie behind a questionable offensive line. Even if he is inefficient with his touches (which would be a first), the volume alone will make up for that. I am all in on Harris as one of the next great NFL and fantasy RBs.
Najee Harris’ fantasy projection
The big issue for the Steelers last season was a complete abandonment of the rushing game. During their 11-0 stretch, Pittsburgh had a 60/40 pass-to-run ratio (58% league average). In the final six games, the offense led the league in passing percentage at 72%. Their running backs averaged just 14.3 rushes per game over that span. That’s not going to cut it in 2021.
I fully anticipate Harris coming out of the gates with a minimum of 18-20 opportunities per game. I would not be surprised to see a few games where he crests the 20-carry mark. If you told me Harris recorded 300-plus carries on the year, I would not bat an eye.
However, I do project him a touch below this, but still averaging around 17-18 carries per game along with 4 to 5 targets. He is by far a better receiver than given credit. As a senior at Alabama, Harris registered 44 receptions. For context, since 2020, only two running backs who weighed over 225 pounds caught more passes than Harris in their final year at college — Saquon Barkley (54) and Steven Jackson (44).
I can easily envision Harris ending the season with 290 rushes, 85 targets, 1,600 total yards, and double-digit touchdowns.
Najee Harris’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Harris is currently being selected as the RB12 with an ADP of 18.0 in half PPR formats. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Harris is the RB12 with a 17.45 ADP. On Fleaflicker, Harris has the highest ADP of the lot at 15.8.
Should you draft Harris in 2021?
Let’s be honest, unless you skipped for the TL;DR, you already know this answer. I am about as bullish on Harris and his fantasy outlook as anyone. He is my RB11, and I believe he will outperform that.
Given a choice between Harris or breakout candidate Cam Akers, I’m taking Harris. I didn’t rank Harris as a top-eight RB like in my projections because I don’t want you to feel like you need to select him that high. In doing so, you take out all the baked-in value at his ADP.
If you can draft Harris at his current Sleeper ADP of RB18 in the middle of Round 2, that’s incredible. Where I have said Austin Ekeler is the best second-round pick, Harris is by far the best third-round selection if he falls that far. I do expect to see his ADP rise as people move off the OL concerns. Even then, this would not push me off Harris as his fantasy outlook will still be higher than his draft capital. He is the best RB2 you can draft in fantasy football. Period.