No one really expects tonight’s Thursday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers to be competitive, and I don’t disagree. That’s the beauty of fantasy football and NFL betting, you can be invested in any game, no matter the talent difference between the two teams. So let’s make some same game parlay picks.
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New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
Giants +410, 49ers -550
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who has more career seasons with 1,100 receiving yards: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, or Darren Waller?
Since the beginning of last season, the 49ers have 17 wins, and they’ve come by an average of 16.1 points. In fact, 15 of those 17 Ws came by at least 7 points, making this seemingly massive spread a little more digestible.
Let’s start with the favored 49ers, who will be dealing with an injury to Brandon Aiyuk. The star of Week 1 is questionable at best for this one, and that leaves us with a buying opportunity on George Kittle.
George Kittle made 49ers history today 🤯
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) September 18, 2023
Deebo Samuel has a sub-65% catch rate since Brock Purdy took over last December, and while that’s not tragically low, you’d expect better with the low aDOT role that he fills. Combine that iffy connection with the Aiyuk injury and the fact that the TE position has been targeted 19 times in two weeks against the Giants, and an explosive Kittle performance could be coming.
He is the only 49ers tight end with a target earned this season, and when he has seen even six targets in a game, he’s averaged 82.5 receiving yards in his career. I’m playing it a little closer to the vest on my official pick, but if you want to juice up the odds a bit, pumping up his yardage total and/or adding a touchdown (25 scores in 50 career games with 6+ targets) is one way to do it.
On the other side, we expect the Saquon Barkley-less Giants to be playing from behind, and in theory, that would mean deep pass attempts. One problem — that’s what San Francisco eliminates. Kenny Pickett was QB21 and Matthew Stafford QB26 for the week in which they played the Niners, something that I don’t think happens by accident.
With a pass-heavy script likely and shallow targets being what the defense is willing to give up, the average depth of target for the Giant pass catchers feels important:
- Jalin Hyatt: 30.0 yards
- Darius Slayton: 15.2
- Darren Waller: 8.9
- Sterling Shepard: 7.5
- Isaiah Hodgins: 7.5
- Parris Campbell: 4.1
This offense has two gunners, a big tight end who plays downfield quite a bit for the position, and then a trio of possession options. The latter is what has my interest, and with Hodgins/Campbell both playing north of 66% of snaps this season, they are my prop targets.
The Giants were in scramble mode last week, and that resulted in 37 pass attempts for Danny Dimes. Who is to say that’s not the case again this week; given their career rates, 5-6 targets for Hodgins and Campbell should be enough to get us home!
Trivia Answer: Darren Waller with two (George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have one apiece).
Same Game Parlay Pick: 49ers (-2.5), Kittle 40+ receiving yards, Hodgins over 30.5 receiving yards, Campbell 25+ receiving yards
Odds: +603 at FanDuel*
*Juice it up to +817 if you’re comfortable with the 49ers covering 6.5 points