Week 3 brings another round of quarterback choices that can swing your fantasy football matchup. Some passers are gaining momentum and look like steady options, while others face difficult matchups that could drag down their production. Injuries and inconsistency are also starting to factor in, making lineup calls tougher than ever. Here’s how the position stacks up heading into the week.
Aaron Rodgers | PIT
At this point in his career, Aaron Rodgers will need everything to align just right for him to even be in the mix for me in standard-sized leagues.
To say that’s not the case for this matchup is an understatement of epic proportions.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, through two weeks, have the most low-octane offense in the league. They don’t have explosive plays coming out of the backfield, and Rodgers owns the lowest aDOT in the league.
We saw him dismantle his former employer with the dink-and-dunk routine, but the Patriots are the eighth-best after-the-catch pass defense in the league since the beginning of last season, and that makes this very much a dud spot for the future Hall of Famer.
Maybe the fact that Rodgers lit up the Pats for 514 yards and four scores in two meetings last season will bring with it some DFS punt interest?
We can only hope. I’m much more likely to roster the Patriots defense with Drake Maye, hope that New England can score, and thus put Rodgers in the type of aggression spot that he’s actively avoiding at this point in his career.
Baker Mayfield | TB
I don’t know how you walk away from Monday Night Football without being super impressed with Baker Mayfield.
Sure, the game-saving scramble was nice, and the clutch throws, but how about him largely taking what was given to him? Sans a few forced throws to Mike Evans, Mayfield was responsibly aggressive.
I’m not sure I’ve ever used those words together, but it fits. He completed 11-of-12 passes when he targeted Bucky Irvin, Rachaad White, or Cade Otton against the Texans. That “take your medicine” approach figures to play well in this spot against the third-best blitzing defense in the league.
The catch with New York is that they are nothing more than ordinary in terms of pressure rate when they don’t bring the blitz. Mayfield can pick apart their blitz with the high-percentage passes we saw him eat up last week, and if they decide to sit back in coverage, I’m not sure anyone can deal with Evans and Emeka Egbuka down the field.
Oh, yeah, and this game is being played at home, where the Bucs have leaned into their QB dictating their fate even more.
Opportunities per game, 2024
- Home: 39.7 per game
- Road: 34.1 per game
I’ve got Mayfield comfortably inside my top 10 this week and feel good about the floor he comes preloaded with, even in a seemingly difficult matchup.
Bo Nix | DEN
Of 34 qualifiers, Bo Nix ranks 33rd in average depth of target and 22nd in yards per non-blitzed pass attempt. He spreads the ball around and relies on his teammates to make plays in space, which is not a bad way to approach most matchups, but it’s not the optimal strategy against the Chargers.
Through two weeks, the Bolts blitz at the fourth-lowest rate, and part of that is because they are more than comfortable sitting back in coverage and tackling (third-fewest yards after the catch per reception allowed since the beginning of last season).
Nix hasn’t surpassed 20 rushing yards in either game this season, making it hard to see him doing enough to crack starting lineups this week.
Could that all change? In theory, backward-looking analysts could lead you down that path. Nix ran for 86 yards across the two Charger games last season and was potent in the short passing game (passes thrown less than 10 yards in those games: 39-of-54, 72.2%).
I’ll take the other side. This is a swarming Los Angeles defense that can minimize the impact of those dumpoffs. Nix was just 1-for-6 when throwing deep against them last season, and if the field shrinks on him this week, it will be a long day.
I’m still pro-Nix for the season, just not on Sunday.
Brock Purdy | SF
The results for Brock Purdy in Week 1’s win over the Seahawks were mixed. On one hand, he threw multiple touchdown passes and ran five times. On the other hand, he matched his September 2024 interception total and ranked 17th by way of our true accuracy metric.
I was cautiously optimistic about the first game without Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, but a foot injury cost him last week, and his status is up in the air at the moment.
It shouldn’t matter to you.
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Purdy is in the starting QB mix when at full strength, but he’s not the type I’m jamming into a lineup at less than full strength. Consider that this matchup resulted in his second-lowest completion percentage (54.3%) and one of his three multi-interception games in 2024: this isn’t a situation you need to worry about.
Hold Purdy if you’d like, but the schedule isn’t overly appealing outside of a Panthers matchup in Week 12, and a late bye (Week 14) has him sitting outside of my starting tier at the position in my rest-of-season rankings.
Bryce Young | CAR
I’ll go ahead and let other DFS players chase the ghost.
Bryce Young’s best game last season came in Week 18 against these Falcons (36.4 fantasy points, 25-of-34 for 251 yards, and three scores to complement 24 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground), and the thought process easily could be that he has a better WR1 this time around.
Great. I don’t see it.
Young averaged 5.4 yards per pass this season and had more sacks than rushing yards in Week 2. He had the crazy fourth quarter (169 yards and two touchdowns), but that was the product of overt aggression and some awfully fortunate bounces.
Maybe he hits the fantasy lottery in consecutive weeks: I’m OK with being on the side that bets against that happening.
No one is counting on Young in one-QB leagues, and I’m not tempted to go this direction in any DFS format.
C.J. Stroud | HOU
Talk about a gotta-have-it game. In a perfect world, this is a 41-37 type of game, and both offenses flex the upside we believe they have.
More likely, that doesn’t happen. C.J. Stroud has just one touchdown toss on 51 attempts this season, and it took Nico Collins summoning every athletic bone in his body to make it happen.
He’s quietly rushed for 24+ yards in both games this season, but that’s been more the product of running for his life than anything by design.
His career numbers against the Jaguars are substantial (20+ fantasy points in three of four with seven scores and zero interceptions), and if this Houston line can hold up against the 28th-ranked pressure defense, I think we could see glimpses of rookie Stroud.
I’m leaving the light on for him in terms of a single-bullet DFS lineup where I lean fully into this game. I understand that this is a risky situation given this unit’s lack of form thus far.
Caleb Williams | CHI
Four of Caleb Williams’ five best fantasy performances came at home as a rookie, and he could add to that total on Sunday after the Cowboys allowed Russell Wilson to have a career day.
Williams has a 30-yard or more completion and a 10-yard or more run in both divisional games this season, showcasing the versatility that gives him the potential to be a QB1 in any given week.
The Dallas defense doesn’t scare me, and their offensive structure almost mirrors the 2024 Bengals. The Cowboys were involved in the game of the week last weekend, and there’s a non-zero chance it happens twice in a row.
I’m a little worried that Williams hasn’t passed for 210 yards in six of his past seven games, but I’m hanging my hat on his versatility and have him as my QB11 for this week.
Cameron Ward | TEN
I’m a big “numbers never lie” guy, but I will say that I don’t think they tell the whole story with Cam Ward.
Through two starts, I’ve been encouraged enough to think that Tennessee has its guy. He’s shown the type of patience and self-preservation instincts that can win at this level, a win for an organization that could use one at this position.
For fantasy, the 11-second play that ended with a Hail Mary of sorts to Elic Ayomanor last week was fun. Maybe we get more of that with time, and his ability to distribute the ball (six throws to six different players to open Week 2) is something few rookies have.
There’s something in this profile, but not for Week 3 and probably not for 2025.
Carson Wentz | MIN
Carson Wentz will get a few starts for the Vikings as J.J. McCarthy nurses a high ankle sprain. The journeyman will be taking snaps for his sixth franchise in as many seasons, and the hope is that he can execute the Kevin O’Connell system at a high enough level to stay competitive.
- Week 3 vs. Bengals
- Week 4 vs. Steelers (in Dublin)
- Week 5 vs. Browns (in London)
Wentz himself does not deserve your attention, but his ability to fill up the target bucket for Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and, eventually, Jordan Addison is what fantasy managers will be eager to learn.
Dak Prescott | DAL
I think there’s a good chance that, by year’s end, we look back at the weekly results and notice that the NFC North served as fantasy steroids.
Either you’re trying to keep up with Green Bay/Detroit, you’re picking apart the Bears, or you’re getting caught in a fast-paced game with the Vikings due to their blitz rate.
All of those teams look different, but all come with a reasonably clear path to fantasy points galore, and that’s a comfort zone for the 2025 Cowboys.
Dak Prescott had seven passing yards in the first quarter last week before leading his team all the way back, so try to hang tough, even if things don’t look great early.
In that win over the Giants, 28 of his 38 completions came on balls thrown no more than 10 yards downfield: keep the chains moving and applying pressure. I love that approach for teams that I’m invested in, and I think we see it on full display again on Sunday.
There is a little Jared Goff when it comes to Prescott, and I view it as my job to inform you of potential pitfalls:
Career splits, fantasy PPG
- Home games: 21.1 PPG, 8.4 aDOT
- Road games: 16.2 PPG, 7.8 aDOT
He didn’t get to face the Bears for all of those games, and not all of them came in clean weather spots. I’m starting Prescott (and four of his teammates) with confidence this week.
Daniel Jones | IND
Three rushing touchdowns, 71.4% completion rate, no turnovers.
Other than that, Daniel Jones hasn’t done anything special.
The former Giant was QB3 in Week 1 against the Dolphins, a performance we all pushed aside due to the matchup. But when he hung a QB5 finish on the Broncos last weekend, we had no choice but to take notice.
So what do we do now?
I think you have to consider playing him. He’s my QB12, ranking ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Bo Nix, to name a few. Since the beginning of last season, five times a QB has reached the 20-point plateau against Tennessee, and four of them (Jayden Daniels, Malik Willias, Josh Allen, and Anthony Richardson) were serious risks with their legs.
Asking Jones to get to 20 points is what I’m looking for (20.2 points would have been QB12 on the nose last week). I like his odds to throw for 300 yards more than I do for him to pile up the rushing points due to the low-pressure/blitz metrics behind the Titans’ approach, but it doesn’t matter how he gets there.
Sign me up for 250 passing yards, two scores, and 20 rushing yards.
That’ll work!
Drake Maye | NE
Drake Maye showcased his upside last week in Miami by completing 82.6% of his passes and rushing 10 times (31 yards, TD). How exceptional was that showing? Jayden Daniels was the only QB to have a game like that last season.
If I knew we would consistently get that version of him, he’d be a top-10 option moving forward, but I need more than a single data point against perhaps the worst defense in the league before I project it.
That said, this is a unique week. Given the number of injuries at the position and other players in this range in tough spots (Bo Nix and Justin Herbert facing each other, for example), Maye sneaks into my top 10.
I’m hopeful that Maye carries over the momentum from last week and that we are off to the races with the Panthers up next and a trip to New Orleans soon. If Maye is going to establish himself as a weekly option and potential league winner, we will see significant signs of it this weekend.
Geno Smith | LV
Geno Smith was a mess on Monday night, and I have difficulty thinking that the Commanders are the cure on a short work week.
Against the Chargers last week, Smith completed just 48.6% of his non-blitzed dropbacks with zero touchdowns and three picks. Since the beginning of last season, Washington ranks as the sixth-best team at generating pressure without bringing an extra defender, a skill that projects to give this minimal offense all sorts of fits.
Geno Smith’s rushing is less of a weapon and cannot be counted on to bail you out. There’s no reason to look this deeply at the position in any one-QB format, and, to be honest, I wouldn’t be thrilled about making this call in a superflex setting.
J.J. McCarthy | MIN
A high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up on Sunday night against the Falcons.
I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs.
Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.
This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2025.
The Vikings will turn to 32-year-old Carson Wentz to steady the ship for the short term, something fantasy managers are right to be wary of.
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Jalen Hurts is QB14 through two weeks, and the man hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass yet.
He’s got at least one rushing TD in 15 of his past 19 games (playoffs included). We get something of an unstoppable force/immovable object situation with the Rams ranking third in red zone defense since the beginning of last season. Still, until I see someone stop this Eagles machine in close, I’ll bet against it.
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You don’t have to rank Hurts as your QB1, but the floor that comes with how this offense is structured locks him in across all formats without a second thought.
Jared Goff | DET
Jared Goff has one great week and one poor one for fantasy purposes, but when you consider that he’s completed 80.6% across the two starts, he’s still the efficient passer that he was under Ben Johnson.
My hunch is that most defenses will be better than the Bears (11.9 yards per pass with as many touchdowns as incompletions) and worse than the Packers (5.8 yards per pass with an interception and four sacks), leaving us without much new information around Goff’s value in 2025.
Last season, Goff averaged 17.2 fantasy points in road games, not a bad showing, but more than 3.5 points fewer than what he put on the board at home and consistent with what we’ve seen over the past 2+ seasons (29.2% fewer fantasy points per game on the road).
Josh Allen picked apart this Ravens defense for a quarter of Week 1, but they grade out much closer to the Packers than the Bears. While the game has the potential to shoot out, I’m having zero issues in benching Goff on the heels of a near-perfect performance in front of his home fans over the weekend.
Jayden Daniels | WAS
If you told me that Jayden Daniels had an 11-carry game and a 42-pass game over two weeks, I think you’d take that.
Usage isn’t the problem right now. In fact, I’m not the least bit worried. Daniels is still the dynamic athlete you drafted as a part of the top tier at the position, and his connection with Deebo Samuel thus far (14 completions) is better than most assumed it ever would be.
He’s played a Giants team with a nasty front and a Packers defense that, with Micah Parsons trending close to full strength, argues to be the best unit in the league.
Relax.
The Packers had a straightforward plan on Thursday night, and because of their elite talent, they could execute it: not every defense can do that. They held Daniels in the pocket for 92.9% of his passes in Week 2, and as good as he can be with his arm, if his legs aren’t weaponized, he will struggle to return anything close to value.
If there is a buy-low window (there likely won’t be), it will close this weekend, at home, as a favorite, on a long work week. The more likely outcome is playing some chess while your league mates play checkers.
- Week 12 bye
- Week 13 vs. Broncos
- Week 14 at Vikings
- Week 15 at Giants
- Week 16 vs. Eagles
Daniels is great, but we’ve seen two talented defenses keep him contained, and we could see more of that over the final month of the fantasy regular season and into the playoffs.
Keep Daniels. Play Daniels when he’s active.
But if we get a big performance the next time he takes the field, I won’t call you crazy if you consider cashing in that chip.
Joe Burrow | CIN
We spent all offseason wondering aloud if Joe Burrow was the top quarterback in the second tier or if his elite passing numbers were enough to put him in the class of the athletic marvels at the position.
They were fun conversations to have, but they don’t matter now. Burrow (turf toe) will be out until December at the very least, which means he will be cut loose in all leagues that don’t have enough IR room for him. And even then, we aren’t sure the Bengals will be able to compete when Burrow returns to the practice field.
I want to use this brutal injury as a launching point. Football is as physically taxing a team sport as there is. That’s obviously more true for some positions than others, but it’s a gladiator sport where everyone on the field isn’t far from a significant injury.
The four quarterbacks drafted ahead of Burrow this summer are much more athletic, and their ability to run often gets tied to increased injury risk. I understand the train of thought: they invite contact when they are on the move.
That’s accurate.
But what doesn’t get looked at enough is the other side of the coin: that quarterback can also escape trouble spots at a higher rate than average. No one is catching Jayden Daniels from behind, so while he is at risk of taking punishment, it’s usually coming head-on, and in those spots, he has the opportunity to make a business decision.
READ MORE: Bengals HC Zac Taylor Hints Joe Burrow Could Return During 2025 NFL Season
I’m not arguing that Burrow is MORE likely to get hurt than the Daniels’ of the world, though it is worth noting that he missed six games in 2020 and seven more in 2023. I’m arguing against the assumption that athletic quarterbacks are reckless investments.
Are they risky? Yes, because they play football. Josh Allen’s propensity to take hits is worrisome to the eye, but he’s been huge and taken hits his entire life. There’s something to be said for knowing how to do it, and that’s a big reason why I’ll never shy away from that prototype.
Joe Flacco | CLE
The Browns’ offense is built to have fantasy spike weeks. This isn’t an ultra-competitive team that poses vertical threats in the passing game and lacks efficient options on the ground.
Joe Flacco has thrown 45 passes in both games this season (the first QB to open a season with two games like that since Matthew Stafford in 2018), but he still has just two touchdowns on his 2022 ledger, and he’s fortunate to have that many.
Instead of having a second straight multi-pick game, Flacco had an off-target pass played into a Cedric Tillman TD on Sunday. The Flacco profile would have been much more valuable 10 years ago when dual-threat QBs were less prevalent and deep passing was more efficient, but here we are, in 2022, where this skill set is nothing more than run-of-the-mill.
That’ll be my take with the crafty veteran in a perfect matchup, something that this clearly isn’t. The Packers appear to have a Super Bowl-level defense, and giving them extra time to prepare for a simplistic offense is a recipe for disaster.
If you can get away with not counting on a single Brown this week, you improve the outlook for your weekend mental stability by at least 25%.
You can trust me, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Jordan Love | GB
This is when you know you’ve been playing fantasy football for a long time.
Instead of enjoying all the good that has come from Jordan Love during Green Bay’s impressive 2-0 start (multiple touchdown passes in both games with the aggression dial turned all the way up), I’m worried about when the shoe will drop.
Love threw for multiple scores in five straight games to open last season, but his last game with 230 passing yards came on Thanksgiving, and he managed to throw just five touchdown passes over the final four weeks of the fantasy season.
Some wounds take time to heal.
That said, this does look different. Matthew Golladay hasn’t been productive yet, but the drafting of him was a signal of aggression from this organization and has been executed through two weeks, with Love’s aDOT sitting at 12.5 yards (2023: 8.8 yards).
How the Jayden Reed injury factors into everything requires guesswork from all of us, but it does open up opportunities for their more explosive playmakers, which could help sustain the stock of Love.
Of course, with talent like that, you run into the variance monster. The aggression side has two coins, and we saw the Browns bottle up the Bengals in Week 1.
Could this be a 30-carry Jacobs game in which Love throws 23 passes and leads the Packers to a win but fantasy managers to a loss? I certainly think that’s in play, and that’s why he’s a fringe QB1 for me this week, but worry not — it won’t last long.
The Packers get the Cowboys, Bengals, and Cardinals over their next three games, weeks when I anticipate Love cracking my top-8 at the position (he also gets a birthday game a few weeks later against the Panthers).
Love will be more valuable to Green Bay than to fantasy managers, but if his growth patterns stick, there’s no reason he can’t finish this season as a QB1, even if this is an offense that prefers to bloody your nose on the ground.
Josh Allen | BUF
If you’ve come to the Josh Allen section of this article, you’re either down bad and looking for a pick-me-up, or you just have a lot of time to kill.
You get access to the most unstoppable quarterback in our game playing a defense that Daniel Jones and Drake Maye have victimized. All signs point to you starting Week 3 with a bang, and few things are better than walking into the office on a Friday after getting 33 points from your QB.
That, of course, is no lock. He didn’t account for a single score last week against the Jets, but he averages 27 fantasy PPG for his career against the Dolphins, reaching that 33-point number on five occasions.
Could Keon Colemon get loose? Does Khalil Shakir rack up the receptions? How Allen gets to an impressive point total is up for debate, but it’s very likely that if you roster the reigning MVP, you’re loving life when your head touches the pillow on Thursday night.
Justin Fields | NYJ
Justin Fields was put into concussion protocol after exiting Week 2’s blowout loss to the Bills late, and his status is cloudy at best.
If he’s active, he has top-10 potential in a game that could go up and down, but it’s wise to plan for a replacement and pivot should all tests come back clear before kickoff.
RELATED: Jets QB Depth Chart: Who Will Start for New York With Justin Fields Out in Week 3?
Tyrod Taylor is the next man up for the Jets, but not for you. The best rushing days are behind the 36-year-old, and with a career completion percentage under 62%, he doesn’t have many paths to success, even if you aren’t buying the Bucs as a tough matchup.
Rest up, Mr. Fields. We will be using you heavily against the Dolphins and Cowboys in the coming weeks.
Justin Herbert | LAC
Justin Herbert has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight and, more importantly, has been fully empowered by his head coach.
Want to check off a play? Do it.
Want to chew up yardage with your legs? Go for it.
Want to be aggressive, understanding that your leash is unlimited? Please!
Justin Herbert has averaged a tick under 13 fantasy points in his last five games against the Broncos with just five touchdowns on 176 attempts, but that’s the past. We are all about looking forward these days, and with this system custom-built to let Herbert thrive, I’m not running away from this matchup.
I’m not running at it for DFS purposes, but he’s a QB1 for me this week, even in a seemingly tough spot.
Kyler Murray | ARI
I’ve got Kyle Murray ranked as my QB8 this week, buying into the 70/7 club.
It’s only two weeks, but Murray is completing over 70% of his passes while averaging seven rush attempts per game, a skill set designed for this game of ours.
We saw him light up these 49ers in Week 18 last season (four touchdown passes), but his recent production against San Francisco has relied more on James Conner than anything.
Murray has completed 73.3% of his passes when faking the run in his past three matchups with the divisional rival, a massive step up from his 64.9% otherwise.
I’m looking forward to this game, which actually has sneaky shootout appeal. If Marvin Harrison Jr.’s route growth is here to stay, Murray will be locked into the top eight in my QB ranks every single week thanks to his ability to produce in a variety of ways.
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Lamar Jackson was special last week when the defense absolutely sold out to stop the run, something he’s proven repeatedly that he can do.
He’s failed to complete 20 passes in a game this season, which would be a red flag in most situations, but Jackson is an exception to almost every rule in the book (six of his 33 completions have resulted in touchdowns).
The fact that he’s connecting vertically with DeAndre Hopkins is a terrifying thought. For my money, this is the best team in the sport and in a good spot to impress again under the bright lights.
Jackson is my QB1 this week, QB2 for the rest of the season.
Mac Jones | SF
Brock Purdy appears to be on the wrong side of questionable, and that has Mac Jones penciled in for another start. He was good for 21.8 fantasy points in New Orleans last week, and while this matchup will be more challenging to navigate, I’m confident in him as a streamer if you lost your starter.
Jones was comfortable in this system last week, and that’s the first box I need checked from a backup option. In the first half, he fed five players at least three targets, a sign that he sees the entire field and thoughtfully goes through his reads.
We saw him thrive for fantasy purposes down the stretch of last season, and he is giving us 16.8 fantasy PPG over his past four starts. That should be viewed as a floor against a Cardinals defense that has allowed at least 17 points to a QB in five of their past eight (five of their past seven if you want to dismiss Spencer Rattler as a viable NFL QB in Week 1).
Arizona has owned the fifth-lowest opponent, aDOT, since the beginning of last season, and Jones was more than happy to take those easy-button completions by way of Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings a week ago.
Jones is hovering around QB15 this week and is a must-add for those without their typical starter.
Matthew Stafford | LAR
I’m convinced that Matthew Stafford will be an efficient NFL quarterback until the day that I die.
The 37-year-old is averaging a cool 8.8 yards per pass through two weeks and is doing what you’d expect a crafty veteran to do: feature his elite playmakers.
Despite all of the volume he’s giving to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Stafford is QB27 through two weeks. Without access to any production on the ground, he needs almost literally to be flawless to be useful, and I don’t think that’s in the cards against the reigning Super Bowl champion.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL
It’s easy to look back to Week 18 last season, a fantasy circus that featured Michael Penix getting into a shootout with Bryce Young, a sentence none of us were ready to utter at the time.
In that game, he threw for 312 yards and two scores while adding one with his legs. I don’t think we get that level of production this week, but he’s a top 15 play for me because I don’t think Carolina can make him sweat.
Or anyone for that matter.
They rank dead last in pressure rate over the past 20 weeks (25% of opponent dropbacks, NFL average: 33.9%), and Penix picked apart the Vikings when they didn’t move him off his spot (11 completions on 14 attempts).
I thought Darnell Mooney looked healthy in his season debut last week, and that gives Penix access to four playmakers that can help carry him to a viable day.
I have him one spot ahead of Mac Jones if you’re looking for a fill-in for Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Fields, or Daniels this week.
Patrick Mahomes | KC
Patrick Mahomes has fallen outside of my top 12 this week, and that’s saying something given the carnage at the position.
Kansas City went three-and-out to open Week 2, and what did Andy Reid scheme up? There were passes to both Noah Gray and Braxton Smith on that possession.
This is a dynastic team in limbo at the moment. They’ve had the same identity for so long, and they still might by the time the leaves change colors, but for now, this is a situation I don’t want to impact my fantasy fate.
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If you’re starting Mahomes, it’s either based purely on vibes or a thought that he can do what Dak Prescott did to this defense last week. In theory, that sounds fine, but this Kansas City offense isn’t built to function like that.
Not with the players they currently have playing extended roles, at least.
I’m not picking against Mahomes in this game; I’m just not sure that his putting up massive numbers is part of their game plan until they get something close to a full roster to support him.
Russell Wilson | NYG
Adam Schefter reported last Saturday that the Giants weren’t feeling any pressure to move on from Russell Wilson in favor of Jaxson Dart.
I can’t imagine that sentiment changed after the future Hall of Famer lit up the Cowboys for a career-high 450 yards through the air.
We did get some weird platooning spots, and Wilson did throw an interception in overtime that ultimately doomed the G-Men, but there is still some gas left in the tank in the right places for the artist formerly known as Mr. Unlimited.
Not every matchup is the Cowboys, however, and with a low implied total, I’ve got no problem ranking Wilson outside of the top 20 after his historic week.
Remember, this is a weekly game. Wilson was fun last week, but not a single one of those moonballs will be reflected in your Week 3 boxscore. That concept seems simple, but many people lose sight of it because they want to chase what they missed.
You’re better than that.
Sam Darnold | SEA
Sam Darnold is playing within himself and weighing Jaxon Smith-Njigba down with targets, both of which are good things for Seattle, but I’m not sold on the fantasy ceiling being anything close to what it was 12 months ago.
In both weeks, he completed at least two-thirds of his passes with a 40-yard gain, yet he’s QB28 in total fantasy points.
Darnold is still a liability under pressure and has had two rushing attempts this year. He’s doing enough to elevate JSN and showed signs of reviving Cooper Kupp last week, but if this team is going to succeed, it will be via the ground game.
Darnold is nothing more than a low-end QB2 for superflex leagues, even in a plus-spot.
Spencer Rattler | NO
Spencer Rattler had 50 opportunities in Week 1 and finished as QB21. In this era of football, I’d typically argue that any quarterback can luckbox into a top 15 performance, but I am not sure how Rattler would pull it off.
The three touchdown passes against the 49ers last week were nice to see, but I don’t think they will sustain. He’s averaging 8.1 yards per completion this season, a rate that will make a pocket-oriented quarterback useless most weeks.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX
Maybe it’s a Florida thing that Baker Mayfield is somehow immune to?
The Dolphins are in disarray these days, and the Jaguars aren’t looking much better. Trevor Lawrence has failed to complete even 62% of his passes in both weeks this season, and with 16 rushing yards, he only has one avenue to fantasy success.
Develop a connection with Brian Thomas Jr.
I wouldn’t have thought that would be a tough ask in the preseason, but 14 of 19 targets to his WR1 have hit the ground this season. That rules out the deep ball, and while Lawrence finished with three scores against the Bengals last weekend, those passes traveled a total of zero yards past the line of scrimmage.
Liam Coen has his work cut out for him, and I will need to see multiple signs of growth before even entertaining the idea of going this direction in the deepest of leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
It’s supposed to be a beautiful evening in Upstate New York, so there’s that.
I tried.
I can’t imagine that you don’t have access to a better option this week than Tua Tagovailoa, on a short week, against one of the favorites to win the AFC.
He impressed last week against the Patriots, and I was encouraged with 71.9% of his targets going to his big three playmakers (DeVon Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle). For a player with some injury concerns, you’d be inclined to worry about a short week. But Tagovailoa has balled out in his last two such spots: 65 completions on 82 attempts with five touchdowns and no interceptions (opponents: Packers and Raiders).
That’s the good.
The bad is that we still see far too many missed opportunities and zero rushing upside to balance the inconsistencies in the passing game. Heck, even the big completion to Hill last week was a stroke of luck against a defense missing their top corner.
The Bills’ defense isn’t one I actively fade, and with their offense’s ability to force tempo, I bet I end up with more Buffalo opponent exposure than most this season.
Not this week. At best, I think two of their top three skill guys come through in this spot. This is lining up for an ugly showing, and backup quarterbacks are starting this week that I’d rather roll the dice with.
