Soppe’s Week 5 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield | TB (at SEA)

This Seahawks defense is the driving force behind Seattle’s three-game win streak and has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season.

Can they quiet a Bucs offense that put points on the board in every quarter last weekend in a valiant effort against the reigning Super Bowl champions?

The Seahawks blitz as little as anyone in the league (31st in blitz rate both this season and since the beginning of 2022), and all Baker Mayfield has done in his past eight games, when not blitzed, is fire 13 touchdowns against three interceptions.

The gutsy QB has thrown multiple TD passes in three of four games this season after closing last regular season with a streak of five straight. The two 70-yard touchdowns last week obviously ballooned a stat line that was largely underwhelming, but that’s always on the board of possibilities when you’re surrounded by the type of talent that resides in Tampa Bay.

This matchup worries me enough to knock Mayfield out of my top 10 for the week, but he remains a top 15 option and is not someone I’d bench for a streamer in a plus spot (i.e., Jaxson Dart in New Orleans or Tua Tagovailoa in Carolina).

Bo Nix | DEN (at PHI)

Bo Nix took advantage of a great spot on Monday night against the Bengals team that already wants the season to end, and that was great to see, but forgive me if that wasn’t enough to sell me on him now being the top 10 guy we drafted him to be as he heads to Philadelphia.

Forget the Eagles’ defense for a minute: their offense can be a fantasy limitation device as well. Nix was able to tear up Cincinnati on Monday night in part because Denver had the ball for nearly 38 minutes.

Philadelphia, not surprisingly, is the leader in average time of possession since the beginning of last season, and that alone puts Nix in a bind to repeat his success.

In terms of the matchup, the Eagles’ pressure could ruin this game. Nix’s struggles this season have come when he is pushed outside of the pocket, as his passer rating in such situations sits at 52.4, down from 97.5 as a rookie.

I expect this to be a low-scoring contest, with Denver viewing it as a situation where the less they ask of Nix, the better. He’s not a top-15 signal-caller for me in Week 5.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs MIA)

Bryce Young was a story of last winter in fantasy circles because it appeared that he had turned a corner. The former first overall pick put up some gaudy numbers, and when the team added Tetairoa McMillan in April, the sleeper buzz hit a fever pitch.

We might have jumped the gun.

Young has been held under 155 passing yards in three of four games, and with just 13 rushing yards over the past three weeks, there really is no path for him to matter in standard formats.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

If you squint and want to leverage this matchup against a Dolphins defense that is on short rest in a two-QB league, more power to you. Miami’s limitations on the defensive side of things are essentially the equivalent of what Young has done at the QB position.

Over the past two weeks, Young has thrown 54 passes, and exactly none of them have resulted in a gain longer than 23 yards. I don’t trust his quality or quantity when it comes to attempts, and that makes him a near-impossible sell, even in a cushy spot like this one.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (at BAL)

C.J. Stroud saw two of his 28 passes result in touchdowns against the Titans over the weekend, a nice turn of events for a player who saw two of 89 have such a result through three weeks.

I think this is more of a matchup thing than Stroud truly figuring anything out, but that might be enough for sharp fantasy managers. I don’t have him ranked near the starting tier this week and won’t unless the spot is perfect.

• Week 10 vs. Jaguars
• Week 11 at Titans
• Week 15 vs. Cardinals
• Week 16 vs. Raiders

Stroud isn’t going to be a reliable option, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be helpful. If you’re streaming the position, Houston’s volatile QB could well put you in position to win your league down the stretch.

He’s far from perfect, but with a 35+ yard completion in three straight and 4+ rushing attempts in every game, there is enough meat on this bone to remain on your radar.

Cameron Ward | TEN (at ARI)

It’s impossible not to root for Cam Ward. He seems like a good kid who is in a no-win spot and is just trying to learn on the fly as best he can.

This truly feels like that Bambi meme where he’s trying to steady himself on ice.

It’s uneasy, there’s flailing, and usually, he falls. But there are pockets of stability. There are glimpses into a player that I expect to be around for a long time. There is hope for this to be a franchise savior.

I do think fantasy upside is possible in the long term, so I wouldn’t go punting off those dynasty shares just because Ward finished his first month as a pro with 614 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions while completing just 51.2% of his throws.

There is a reckless play or two per game that he makes that forces your mind to wonder about the future. That play came early in Houston last week with a 33-yard, cross-body, only-Brett-Favre-would-try-this shot to Elic Ayomanor.

If this team can support the former Miami star, we might have something as soon as 2026, but there’s no need to look in this direction over the next three months.

Carson Wentz | MIN (at CLE)

All things considered, I thought Carson Wentz played fine in Ireland against the Steelers.

Of course, the problem would be “all things considered.”

The Vikings had no answer for the front of the Steelers, and while I’d write that off as a matchup thing, it’s not as if things get any easier with this week’s AFC North opponent.

Wentz completed his first 11 passes last week, six courtesy of Justin Jefferson. Embracing his WR1 is critical to his statistical profile, and his mobility is non-zero, but there isn’t really a path for him to consistently hit lineups. The ground game doesn’t demand enough respect from defenses, and that means they can work on limiting the efficiency of Jefferson.

He’s good enough to keep Minnesota’s pieces viable, but there should be no interest here in standard league types.

Dak Prescott | DAL (at NYJ)

Dak Prescott’s fantasy stock has been a little up-and-down (not a top 20 QB in either loss, but a top 6 QB in the other two games), but outside of limited mobility, it’s really hard to poke holes in this profile.

He’s completed north of 73% of his passes in three straight games, and that efficiency is coming on high-end volume. Prescott has completed 30+ passes in each of those contests, tying him for the third-longest run since 2019 (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are the two names ahead of him), and he’s found a nice balance.

Ready for this?

He’s pacing for BOTH the second-highest deep throw rate of his career while also tracking for the lowest average depth of throw.

How crazy is that?

His pass diet is varied in such a way that he can continue to produce QB1-level results, even without the rushing bump. There is some matchup risk in this spot, especially with CeeDee Lamb expected to sit again, but would I rather have his floor in this current role than mess with Bo Nix in Philadelphia or Baker Mayfield in Seattle?

Yeah, I think I would.

Daniel Jones | IND (vs LV)

Daniel Jones’ 2025 resume is a compelling argument for why versatility should be viewed as a priority number one when ranking quarterbacks, but it also highlights the volatility that can come with it.

In Weeks 1-2, Jones ran for 28 yards and saw two of his 63 passes result in TDs (sacked twice).

In Weeks 3-4, Jones ran for 26 yards and saw two of his 58 passes result in TDs (sacked twice).

Pretty similar, right?

In Weeks 1-2, he scored 52.3 fantasy points, topping Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.

In Weeks 3-4, he scored 26.2 fantasy points, falling behind Geno Smith and Carson Wentz.

The efficiency was nearly identical (in Weeks 1-2, he completed 71.4% of his passes and in Weeks 3-4, 72.4%), but he ran for three scores with zero interceptions in the first wave of games compared to zero rushing scores and two turnovers in the second set.

It truly is a game of inches. Heck, a few more inches of control from A.J. Mitchell and Jones get four more points added to that second number.

I thought the Raiders showed well for themselves against a similarly athletic QB last week in Caleb Williams (one TD pass on 37 attempts with just 13 yards allowed on eight carries). By no means is this a defense I’m scared of, but Maxx Crosby is a game-wrecker at the highest of levels.

Jones is firmly in that third tier of signal-caller for me this week, a range that goes from QB11-16.

He’s a fine option, but not one that comes without risk.

Dillon Gabriel | CLE (vs MIN)

Reports surfaced on Tuesday that the Browns will shift to Dillon Gabriel this week over Joe Flacco, a move that felt inevitable.

Cleveland is going nowhere fast, so why not get a look at the rookie?

Superflex managers should take note just because any starting QB has a path to lineups in that format, but I’m not expecting his numbers to look drastically different from Flacco’s, and that’s of little use in redraft leagues.

Drake Maye | NE (at BUF)

Drake Maye has now finished three straight weeks as a top 10 QB, through multiple TD passes in each of those contests, and unlocking different parts of his game in each instance.

• Week 2 at MIA: 10 rush attempts, TD
• Week 3 vs. PIT: 11-of-14 with a TD pass against the blitz
• Week 4 vs. CAR: 11.9 yards per pass with a Stefon Diggs revival

The Patriots are leaning into his versatility much more this season than last, and that opens up a world of possibilities.

Is he a Tier 2 QB already?

Does he sit at the top of Tier 2?

We saw him throw for 261 yards and two scores while running for 30 yards against these Bills last season in his lone full contest against the divisional rival. Maye is no longer a matchup play; he’s a must-play in all formats, with his spot in the top 10 safe.

He’s my QB7 this week in a game that could require him to be overly aggressive to keep up.

Geno Smith | LV (at IND)

The Raiders got their brakes beaten off in Week 3 against the Commanders. In that game, Geno Smith hooked up with Tre’Quan Tucker for three scores, and those three passes accounted for 27% of his September fantasy points.

Yikes.

This season, when pressured, Smith has turned 57 dropbacks into just 249 yards, 12 sacks, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. Through the first two weeks of this season, the Colts ranked dead last in non-blitz pressure rate (16.3%). But over the past two weeks, that number has increased to 42%, which is the fifth-best rate.

Smith shouldn’t be considered a viable option in any single-quarterback format, and, to be honest, I wouldn’t be excited about firing him up as a QB2 this week.

That’s saying something when you consider that there are only 28 teams in action this week.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at CLE)

A Week 2 high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up against the Falcons.

I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs at the moment.

Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.

This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2023.

The Vikings will continue to bet on 32-year-old Carson Wentz to steady the ship for now, something that fantasy managers are right to be wary of.

Jake Browning | CIN (vs DET)

Week 3 felt like rock bottom until Week 4 happened.

Jake Browning is struggling to execute much of anything right now, so much so that Ja’Marr Chase is hardly running down the field. They are opting to keep their WR1 — and maybe the best pass catcher in the league — close to the line of scrimmage because if his route extended too far, the play is at serious risk of being over before he turns his head to look for a target.

If the Bengals opt to trade for a quarterback, that player will have my attention due to the talent on this roster. Still, Browning has proven incapable of leveraging his teammates, and that means he’s not even worth a look in two-QB leagues, even with four teams on a bye.

That’s hard to do.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs DEN)

Just because it’s different doesn’t make it wrong.

In this passing league, Jalen Hurts has thrown 25+ passes in just one game this season and has failed to throw a TD pass twice.

He’s also averaging 4.4 yards per carry, nothing special, and a mark that is below his career average.

That’s not exactly a positive résumé, and yet, he’s been a QB1 in three of four weeks.

Hurts has cleared six fantasy points with his legs in every game this season and showed elite composure against the blitz in last week’s win over the Bucs (7-of-9 with two touchdowns).

He didn’t complete a pass in the second half because he didn’t need to. Hurts’ statistical profile has, in my opinion, more room to grow than regress, and that locks him into the top tier at the position without much of a second thought.

Jared Goff | DET (at CIN)

This Lions offense bears an uncanny resemblance to the 2024 juggernaut (124 points over the past three games), something that was hard to imagine less than a month ago, when the Packers dominated them from start to finish.

The problem is that they are getting there in a similar fashion to last season.

They’ve managed 72 points over the past two weeks without Goff having a 30-yard pass and just 370 passing yards on his ledger. This team can kill you in a million ways, and Goff’s right arm is third on that list.

He could 100% expose this porous defense that is working on a short week; it’s just a matter of what he is asked to do, and I’m worried that he hasn’t been heavily relied upon in consecutive games and really boosted his Week 2 numbers in “message-sending to Ben Johnson” garbage time.

I have Goff ranked as my QB11 this weekend, ranked just ahead of QBs in tough spots (Baker Mayfield in Seattle, for example) and behind QBs with more versatility in plus-spots (Patrick Mahomes in Jacksonville and Daniel Jones hosting Vegas).

Jaxson Dart | NYG (at NO)

We will see how the league adjusts to the Jaxson Dart plan and how the Giants react to those adjustments, but the first impression was a strong one for fantasy purposes.

Russell Wilson was QB30 in Week 3 with 5.1 points, a total that Dart cleared with his 15-yard rush TD on the first drive in his first start.

I was ready to push all my chips into the middle of the table based on what I saw early. He was schemed up rush attempts and was locking in on Malik Nabers when he took to the air (both completions during that first scoring drive went to WR1).

As I was preparing a metaphor-laden post, it happened: Nabers tried to plant and elevate for a deep pass and couldn’t really leave the ground.

The budding star tore his ACL and ended his season on the play, an injury that certainly dials back my optimism for Dart moving forward.

That’s not to say he can’t produce. The shovel pass to Theo Johnson required some strong ball-handling, and the little details like that were impressive from the rookie, but without an alpha pass catcher, we are asking him to be 90% of Josh Allen.

He’s not 90% of Josh Allen.

This is almost too good a matchup to get a great feel for things. We saw New York load up Cam Skattebo with work in a neutral game script last week, and if we are looking at under 35 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts), it’s going to be difficult to crack the top 15 at the position.

After this week, New York gets Philadelphia twice and Denver once.

I enjoy what Dart brings to the table, but I’ll be enjoying it from a distance when it comes to fantasy.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (at LAC)

Is it possible that Marcus Mariota bought Jayden Daniels extra time to recover by leading the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders in Week 3?

I think so. That’s not to suggest that Daniels’ knee injury isn’t a real concern; I just think it’s plausible that we won’t see many limitations this week.

The Chargers defense presents a real challenge, but not nearly enough for me to consider pivoting should Daniels return to action this weekend (worth noting that Washington gets an extra day of rest/prep heading into Week 6 with a Monday night game against the Bears due up next).

Daniels has cleared 19 fantasy points in 14 of 17 career games when dropping back at least 20 times, and five of those instances saw him score over 75% of his points with his arm. If you want to dock him a spot or two in your weekly rankings, be my guest, but it’s not nearly enough to consider sitting him if active.

Joe Burrow | CIN (vs DET)

We spent all offseason wondering aloud if Joe Burrow was the top quarterback in the second tier or if his elite passing numbers were enough to put him in the class of the athletic marvels at the position.

They were fun conversations to have, but they don’t matter now. Burrow (turf toe) is going to be out until December at the very least, and that means he’s going to be cut loose in all leagues that don’t have enough IR room for him. And even then, we aren’t sure the Bengals will be in a position to compete when Burrow returns to the practice field.

I want to use this brutal injury as a launching point. Football is as physically taxing a team sport as there is. That’s obviously more true for some positions than others, but it’s a gladiator sport where everyone on the field isn’t far from a significant injury.

READ MORE: Bengals Legend Urges Cincinnati To Trade for 10-Time Pro Bowl QB After Jake Browning Struggles in Joe Burrow’s Absence

The four quarterbacks drafted ahead of Burrow this summer are much more athletic, and their ability to run often gets tied to an increase in injury risk. I understand the train of thought: they invite contact when they are on the move.

That’s accurate.

But what doesn’t get looked at enough is the other side of the coin: that quarterback is also capable of escaping trouble spots at a higher rate than average. No one is catching Jayden Daniels from behind, so while he is at risk of taking punishment, it’s usually coming head-on, and in those spots, he has the opportunity to make a business decision.

I’m not arguing that Burrow is more likely to get hurt than the Danielses of the world, though it is worth noting that he missed six games in 2020 and seven more in 2023. I’m arguing against the assumption that athletic quarterbacks are reckless investments.

Are they risky? Yes. Because they play football. Josh Allen’s propensity to take hits is worrisome to the eye, but he’s been huge and taking hits his entire life. There’s something to be said for knowing how to do it, and that’s a big reason why I’ll never shy away from that prototype.

Joe Flacco | CLE (vs MIN)

This just felt like a ticking time bomb.

Joe Flacco has thrown at least 34 passes in every game this season, and that’s the only way for a QB like this to flirt with mattering, but he hasn’t been close to doing that.

• 2 TD passes
• 6 INTs
• 160 attempts

Cleveland goes on bye in Week 9, and reports are that the team is going to give Dillon Gabriel a run at the starting job this week.

The move makes plenty of sense for the franchise, though I don’t think it does much of anything for fantasy managers: Quinshon Judkins remains viable, and everyone else is risky at best.

It’s Quinshon Judkins and then a bunch of “no thank yous” on this roster.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs NE)

It was a slow burn, but Josh Allen got his Bills home against the Saints, and he held serve for his fantasy managers. Despite being held in check for the middle 40 minutes of this contest, Allen finished with 209 yards and two scores through the air, on top of his 10.5 fantasy points as a rusher.

The flat target share for this team highlights the growth that Allen has made. None of his teammates saw more than five targets, and after an early error, Allen largely played within himself.

That’s not great news for DFS managers chasing those crazy weeks, but it means an elevated floor, and redraft managers are perfectly okay with that, given how rare his skill set is.

Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in three of his past four games against the Patriots and 40 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts) in five of six versus the divisional foe. I fully expect the former to be extended, which means you’ll play him without a second thought, as is your standard operating procedure.

Justin Fields | NYJ (vs DAL)

It kind of feels like the Jets have their guardrails up on Justin Fields, and considering that they know far more about their QB1 than I do, I’ll trust what they are doing.

There is zero desire to challenge the defense down the field. The majority of Fields’ deep passes last week in Miami came in the fourth quarter when they were essentially out of options.

I have my questions about a player like this in the NFL, but for fantasy, we can make it work. Lamar Jackson and Fields are the only QBs with multiple 27-point games this season, and in his two full starts, he’s been efficient.

In each of those contests, he’s cleared 14 fantasy points with his legs while completing north of 72% of his passes. The air game isn’t exciting, but it doesn’t really need to be so long as he is healthy and running.

I think there’s a lot of risk in this profile moving forward, but not this week. The Cowboys can’t rush the passer and thus need to blitz. Fields is likely to run into his fair share of sacks, but when he breaks contain, that 10-yard scramble to move the chains could be a field-flipping 40-yard gain.

Fields is a top-10 QB for me with relative ease in this perfect spot.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs WAS)

Is it possible that we put the cart before the horse with Justin Herbert?

Jim Harbaugh has opened up this offense in a dramatic way, and we are looking at an offense with a versatile RB next to three viable receivers.

That’s a pretty good setup for a high-degree player, but we’ve gotten just one QB1 finish this season. Your view of Herbert’s fantasy stock, both this week and for the next few weeks at the very least, is reasonably simple: are you buying more into the volume than you fear the pressure?

Through a month, Herbert ranks second in opportunities at the position (pass-plus-rush attempts). This roster insulates him, and if they continue to put their fate in his hands, it’s not difficult to see him volume his way to top 10 weeks.

On the other hand, Joe Noteboom is going to miss some time, and over the past three weeks, Herbert is 15-of-42 (35.7%) when pressured, firing one touchdown against two interceptions in the process.

The Commanders create pressure at the ninth-highest rate this season, while Los Angeles’ next two opponents rank in the bottom 10 (Indianapolis and Miami). He’s a fringe QB1 for me, but I want you to know that even if he struggles this week, I encourage you to sit tight and not do anything rash.

Kyler Murray | ARI (vs TEN)

It’s okay to be encouraged.

In the fourth quarter on Thursday night, Marvin Harrison Jr. seemed to have found his confidence, and if Kyler Murray has two pass catchers he can count on, he stands to be a strong Tier 2 signal caller.

That’s not to say he’s perfect. There was an airmailed interception on Arizona’s second drive last week, and his accuracy metrics this year are largely the result of playing the Saints and Panthers to open the season.

Understanding that, he’s cleared 30 rushing yards and has a touchdown pass in all four weeks. That helps create a fantasy floor, as does the skill set of Trey McBride, thus making the Harrison situation something of a linchpin to Murray’s spot in the QB hierarchy.

If the second-year receiver can live up to his pedigree, Murray has top-five potential at the position, and I think that’s in play this week. I understand that he looked iffy at times last week (4.9 yards per pass with two INTs), but that was a short work week against an elite defense.

This week, he gets extra time to prepare for one of the favorites to earn the top overall pick in April. With Josh Allen off the main slate and Lamar Jackson (vs. HOU)/Jalen Hurts (vs. DEN) in less favorable spots, Murray should very much be on your DFS radar at a relative discount.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs HOU)

The Ravens made it clear on Monday afternoon that Lamar Jackson’s exiting early from their Week 4 blowout loss to the Chiefs was not the result of the score but a legitimate hamstring injury that has his status for this week in question.

Baltimore might try to rest their former MVP this week, work him up to game speed ahead of Week 6 (vs. Rams) before the Week 7 bye.

This is a situation that certainly requires monitoring, but the fantasy plan is pretty straightforward: mirror what the 1-3 Ravens do (currently sounds like a Week 5 absence at the very least).

The streaming options aren’t great this week with four teams on bye, but Tua Tagovailoa gets the Panthers, and C.J. Stroud gets a banged-up Ravens defense.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (at LAC)

Marcus Mariota was QB6 in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Raiders, but the backup QB found the sledding a bit tougher in Atlanta over the weekend.

In the 34-27 loss to the Dirty Birds, Mariota was only able to muster two rush attempts and saw only one pass catcher haul in more than two passes. The Commanders were unable to stay on the field (one-of-eight on third downs and under 26 minutes of possession), making life difficult with Terry McLaurin inactive.

All signs point to Jayden Daniels returning this weekend. If you roster Daniels, I think you’re wise to keep Mariota rostered until you need to pivot. In a perfect world, the franchise QB is just fine and returns to his Tier 1 ranking (that’s where he sits for me right now), and you don’t have to use Mariota again.

If that’s the case, you simply cut ties with Mariota heading into Week 11. The Commanders go on bye in Week 12, and by getting a week ahead of it, you may be able to add a Michael Penix (at New Orleans in Week 12) or Sam Darnold (at Tennessee).

Patrick Mahomes | KC (at JAX)

OK, so what changed?

What allowed a Hall of Fame-caliber QB to look like a Hall of Fame-caliber QB after three awfully ordinary weeks as a passer?

Against the Ravens on Sunday, Mahomes completed 7-of-8 passes with two scores when throwing outside of the pocket, a drastic improvement from the two games prior (five-of-11 with zero touchdowns).

The gravity of Xavier Worthy was certainly part of that, but so was a banged-up Baltimore defense that failed to make him uncomfortable, even if he was moved off of his spot. Also factoring into this was the willingness of Mahomes to do damage with his legs (45% of his fantasy points in Week 1 came with his legs, and in Week 2, that rate was 57.1%).

It’s possible that we’ve just seen a turning point, and the avalanche of Kansas City production is on the way. The Jaguars have overachieved on the defensive side of the ball, and Mahomes has quietly struggled for our purposes in these primetime spots (under 17.5 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 such contests).

I’m not worried about it.

Mahomes ranks fourth in dropbacks through the first month of the season, and if we are giving the most talented QB in the league elite volume, the fantasy points are going to pile up.

Mahomes is back in my top 8 at the position, both for this week and for the remainder of the season.

Russell Wilson | NYG (at NO)

Russell Wilson had a career day in Week 2 against the Cowboys, but he wasn’t a top 20 QB in either of his other two starts and never really looked comfortable.

The Giants aren’t going anywhere in 2025, no matter what they do under center, and that’s why the decision to hand the keys to Jaxson Dart shouldn’t come as a surprise.

I’m not sure what type of league would have required you to hold onto Wilson up to this point, but you can move on: this is the Dart show, for better or worse, and that’s not going to change unless there’s an injury.

Sam Darnold | SEA (vs TB)

The Seahawks have won three straight, and Sam Darnold has scored 15.8-16.7 fantasy points in each of them.

He’s actually playing better than I expected during his first month with the team, but this team isn’t going to ask him to put up top 15 fantasy numbers. The rushing upside is minimal at best, and with no more than 26 pass attempts in three of four, the efficiency almost has to be at Hall of Fame levels to make him worthy of our interest.

We saw what he is capable of on the second drive on Thursday night that concluded with consecutive, perfectly placed balls. If you’ve tied your wagon to Caleb Williams this year, Darnold is a viable streaming candidate against a defense that has the potential to eliminate the run game.

That’s what he is in our game: a streamer that you use when needed, but not one that you bank on for anything more.

Spencer Rattler | NO (vs NYG)

Spencer Rattler led a gutsy performance in Buffalo last week, keeping his 15.5-point underdog Saints competitive for the majority of the contest.

He nearly doubled his season total in rushing yards with 49, but he has yet to reach 220 yards through the air and has multiple passing scores in just one of four weeks.

He’s doing everything we could ask for in terms of funneling targets to the teammates we need him to, but there’s no path to even superflex value here, and that’s not going to change in New Orleans this season, no matter who sits atop this depth chart.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs KC)

Is it possible that we were hoodwinked, bamboozled, and led astray?

I’m not sure about you, but coming out of Clemson, I was told that Trevor Lawrence was a gifted downfield passer with plus mobility.

At this point, I’d take either of those things, never mind both.

His deep ball passer rating since the beginning of last season is 61.8, easily the lowest mark in the league among qualifiers (Bryce Young is the only QB within 10 points of Lawrence). He’s two-of-10 on those passes over the past two weeks, something that I wouldn’t have believed had you told me a month ago, with both Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter healthy.

As for the rushing numbers? He averaged 18.1 yards per game through his first four seasons, but he hasn’t cleared 12 in a single game this season.

The Chiefs come to town as the sixth-best pressure unit in the league, second-best if you only look at non-blitzed plays. With the Seahawks, Rams, and a bye coming up after this, there’s no excuse for holding onto the false hope that Lawrence’s draft equity comes preloaded with.

We, as an industry, got this one wrong this summer, and I’m just as guilty as anyone.

Brutal.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at CAR)

I want you to name for me the viable fantasy option that doesn’t have strong mobility traits or an alpha WR1.

I’ll wait.

At best, you’re looking at Dak Prescott sans CeeDee Lamb. And then who? Brock Purdy? Geno Smith?

I know, I know, bad week to make that Prescott comparison after he lit up the Packers on Sunday night, but I think we can agree that was an outlier performance. The point is that Tua Tagovailoa was struggling to maintain a reasonable fantasy floor before the Tyreek Hill injury and could well tank after it.

He’s thrown multiple TD passes in three straight games and has looked better after the Week 1 disaster in Indianapolis, but he simply lacks the paths to top 15 production.

My guess is that he will experience a random spike at some point, possibly when De’Von Achane takes a screen pass to the house or Jaylen Waddle finds himself in a mismatch for an extended period, but that won’t be the norm.

Tagovailoa isn’t a player I’m looking to stream this week: give me Jaxson Dart if we are simply targeting poor defenses. Moving forward, I’d rather tie my QB2 wagon to a Sam Darnold-type player who might not have the most fantasy-friendly game, but is playing the position at a reasonably high level and gets a Carolina matchup, on extended rest, during our Super Bowl week (Week 17).

Tyrod Taylor | NYJ (vs DAL)

Tyrod Taylor was QB10 in Week 3 against the Buccaneers, and that was a good reminder that his skill set is impactful for our game if he is pressed into starting duties in a favorable spot.

There’s no need to hold him with Justin Fields healthy, but New York does have some good matchups down the stretch (Dolphins, Jaguars, Saints in Weeks 14-16), so if we ever get word that Fields is dealing with something, Taylor is certainly a quick add that could pay off in a big way when it matters most this winter.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at CLE)

We saw what was at risk from Aaron Jones Sr. taking almost a 2024 Jaylen Warren role to Jordan Mason’s Najee Harris in Week 2, so given that the former Packer is on injured reserve for at least another three weeks, it saved you from yourself.

It’s human nature.

When we spend something meaningful, we take an overly optimistic view of it when asked to evaluate. Jones cost you a sixth-round pick this summer and, therefore, you were naturally more likely to look at his Week 1 usage as optimistic, citing the downfield routes as a path to rare upside.

In theory, those routes do offer something that few running backs have access to, but if not complemented by the stuff that every running back has access to, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.

Jones is a 30-year-old back with more than 1,700 touches on his NFL resume. The truth of the matter is that an injury was a real risk, and with a fading role, he may never return to an RB2 range this season.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

You’re holding tight, but that’s more because you really don’t have a choice. He wasn’t involved much before the injury, and that tanked any trade value he could have had. You’ll be without Jones for at least two more weeks, though there is a real chance you’ll never feel great about playing him again this season.

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs NYG)

I don’t want to be overly dramatic, but what do the Saints have to gain by continuing to hand Alvin Kamara the football?

We are more than three years removed from his last 25+ yard rush, and Kendre Miller showed some juice in the upset bid of the Bills last week.

First half rushing splits, Week 4 at BUF:

• Kendre Miller: 38 yards on 5 carries (long run: 18-yard TD)
• Spencer Rattler: 38 yards on 5 carries (long run: 15 yards)
• Kamara: 37 yards on 9 carries (long run: 17 yards)

From a fantasy perspective, receiving numbers for running backs are what rushing numbers are for quarterbacks in that they are a cheat code. Kamara has been riding the coattails of that train of thought for a while now, but has the bill come due?

No Saint had multiple receptions in the first half, and this offense has shown no ability to pile up garbage-time numbers. That’s not to say that Kamara is an outright bench player just yet, but he’s not a lineup lock, as is the case with everyone attached to this offense.

Omarion Hampton gashed these Giants last week (12 carries for 128 yards, including a 54-yard TD), and maybe Kamara can benefit from this spot… or maybe Miller continues to build momentum. Kamara is under contract for another season, but it’s pretty clear that he’s on the back nine of his career, and that’s not something I want the fate of my fantasy season to rely on.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (at IND)

It looked good on paper.

The pedigree didn’t go anywhere.

The script worked.

There is no better feeling in this world than when everything points in a direction and it plays out as suggested.

OK, so maybe I live in a sheltered world, but it makes me happy when that happens, and it certainly did for Ashton Jeanty against a Bears defense that entered last week as the worst pre-contact unit in the league.

The 155-yard, three-touchdown performance jumps off the screen, and as good as it was, it was only baby steps in the right direction. His 0.71 yards per carry before contact was well below the league average, but his rate through three weeks was -0.04.

He caught his first two touchdown passes of his career, but those were the only two targets he earned, matching his average through three weeks.

This Raiders situation is far from fixed, but guess what?

The Colts are coming off their worst pre-contact defensive performance of the season and have replaced the Bears as the worst such unit in the league.

Repeat?

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (vs KC)

It won’t show up in the box score of a standard league, but Bhayshul Tuten’s 54-yard kick return toward the end of the first half is the type of thing that earns brownie points with the coaching staff.

I’ve largely been impressed with the rookie, but that doesn’t matter. I can like the film and profile as much as I want, but the role isn’t changing until Travis Etienne lets it happen.

Jacksonville’s starting back continues to rip off big plays, thus making it difficult to justify taking him off the field. Tuten has yet to play 26% of the offensive snaps in a game this season and recorded one touch for every four that Etienne got last weekend against the 49ers.

He’s a fun roster stash that the coaching staff clearly likes.

He’s also nothing more than a handcuff RB who only holds contingent value until otherwise noted.

Braelon Allen | NYJ (vs DAL)

Week 4 was about as good as it could get for Braelon Allen.

Not only did he cough up the ball at the goal line on New York’s first drive, but he also exited before halftime with a knee injury that occurred on a kick return.

News broke on Tuesday that an MRI confirmed an MCL sprain, and an extended absence is likely.

You’re free to move on unless you have an unused IR slot. Allen was handling just 5.3 touches per game prior to the injury, and while he was trending for more in that contest with the Dolphins, there have been no breadcrumbs laid about him turning this backfield into a committee.

READ MORE: Braelon Allen Injury Update: How Long Will the Jets RB Be Out After Concerning News?

I wouldn’t hesitate to drop Allen for Isaiah Davis, the new RB2 in New York. I don’t think he holds weekly value either, but he’s healthy, and we saw him handle more than 250 touches in each of his final two collegiate seasons.

Should something happen to Breece Hall, Davis would assume a 15+ touch role and shift favorably into my flex ranks.

Breece Hall | NYJ (vs DAL)

To my eye, Breece Hall looked about as good in September as you could possibly expect for a player who ranks outside of the top 20 at the position in scoring.

In three of four games, he has a 17+ yard rush and 30+ receiving yards. His struggle to make a splash is twofold: role and help.

First drive rushing production

• Justin Fields: 3 carries for 29 yards
• Braelon Allen: 4 carries for 26 yards, fumble lost
• Hall: 3 carries for 15 yards
• Isaiah Davis: 1 carry for 6 yards

Allen is now injured, so that should clear up some of this, but the Jets haven’t been willing to feature Hall in a meaningful way (under 15 carries in three straight games). This is as good a spot as any to start tying that, and I’d expect 18-20 touches like we saw last week in a competitive game.

The supporting cast was a problem this preseason, and that’s not going to change. Hall has yet to find the end zone because the Jets are rarely in the same zip code as the end zone. Even last week, they had two touchdowns of significant length, and that makes it difficult for a back like Hall to reach his ceiling.

This Dallas defense, however, has a way of fixing all problems. Hall is going to be a viable RB2 for me most weeks, but his top-10 potential is as high as it’ll get this season this week.

Bucky Irving | TB (at SEA)

News surfaced on Wednesday that a foot sprain is plaguing Bucky Irving, and while the team doesn’t believe it to be a serious issue, they have labeled it as a week-to-week situation, rather than day-to-day.

Players like Aaron Jones are at risk of losing their starting gig after an absence, but that isn’t the case here. Irving is viewed as both the present and the future in Tampa Bay, so you should feel fine about having him as an RB1 for the second half of the fantasy season.

That said, you will need to find a replacement option this week and potentially next.

Cam Skattebo | NYG (at NO)

I’m not sure how many games the Giants will win this season, but they will learn a great deal about the future of their offense.

With Malik Nabers done for the year, New York’s mission is to develop their rookie QB/RB tandem so that we have a triplets situation in 2026. Jaxson Dart is, of course, the focal point, but they’ve committed to Cam Skattebo as an every-down grinder, and fantasy managers should like the usage patterns.

He was handed the rock 25 times (21-5 carry advantage over Devin Singletary over the final three quarters), and he continues to impress with soft hands out of the backfield.

I don’t think we get the Week 4 game script more than a few times this season for the Giants, but with maybe the worst team in the league on tap, we could see it in consecutive weeks.

Skattebo was on the field for 75.4% of the offensive snaps last week, the highest mark for a Giants RB this season, and proof that he is here to stay. I’d have no hesitation in starting him in any league that I have him in this weekend.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs DET)

Chase Brown came into this season with so much promise, but like his teammates, one Joe Burrow injury has proven to be enough to undo all of it.

He’s yet to rush for 50 yards in a game and has a total of two red zone touches since Jake Browning assumed the starting gig.

Brown is averaging 2.3 yards per carry this season (long rush: 11 yards), so it’s not as if he’s helping himself, but this offense is a mess, and it’s no secret. Last season, he ran into a loaded box on under 27% of his carries as defenses worried about being exposed elsewhere, but this season, that rate has crept over 42%.

We know that Brown is back on the roster in Cincinnati, and that fact alone keeps him on the flex radar, but he’s outside of my top 20 with ease this week, and you could justify starting a popular waiver wire add in Woody Marks over him on Sunday.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at LAC)

Chris Rodriguez Jr. ripped off a 48-yard first-quarter run last week in Atlanta as the Falcons overreacted to the gravity caused by Marcus Mariota.

That made for a good highlight, but I found it telling that, despite the monster play, Washington still functioned as a committee.

Week 4 Commanders (snaps, touches, routes)

• Chris Rodriguez: 20 / 7 / 8
• Bill Croskey-Merritt: 17 / 9 / 5
• Jeremy McNichols: 16 / 3 / 12

This is truly one of those situations where, if you have more than one player occupying a role, for fantasy purposes, you have nobody of interest.

Jayden Daniels is expected back this week, and maybe we’ll see one of these three fit better next to him than the others, but we’d just be guessing at this point to assign that role to anyone.

Rodriguez can be held onto in deeper formats if for no other reason than the Commanders don’t go on bye until Week 12, and he gives you a warm body that is connected to an above-average offense.

I’m not overly optimistic that we’ll get much role development here, but a speculative stash is plenty acceptable.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs MIA)

We all seem to agree that Chuba Hubbard is an above-average talent, and there is no debating his role as the bellcow in Carolina, but if he’s not finding the end zone, he’s in trouble.

In Weeks 1-2, he scored and was a top-10 producer at the position. In Weeks 3-4, he didn’t and wasn’t a top-25 running back in PPR formats.

All running backs at some level need touchdowns to sustain value, so I’m not turned off by that idea, but given the ineptitude of the Panthers, it’s a problem.

Splash plays have also been hard to come by for Hubbard in 2022: 10.4% of his carries gained 10+ yards last season, 3.8% this season. There simply isn’t much room to operate in this Bryce Young system, but he’s been able to salvage some value with 3+ targets in all four weeks.

There is no real blueprint for Hubbard to post a top-5 week, but that’s the case for anyone who fills his shoes during this absence as a result of the calf injury (this week for sure with next week’s cushy matchup against the Cowboys up in the air).

Hubbard may not be exciting, but I’m holding through this injury and am confident that he gets RB2 levels of work when you need it most.

David Montgomery | DET (at CIN)

I get the cute Sonic and Knuckles thing, but this isn’t a committee. This is a backfield with one good and one great back, the former of whom is getting the run he deserves.

David Montgomery proved against the Ravens in Week 3 that he can take advantage of a good spot (RB2 for the week), but the norm is going to be the other three weeks, where he’s battling for RB2/flex status.

He’s not a bad play, and he’s capable of finishing off these goal-line drives that come more often for Detroit than most. But labeling this as a “committee” feels disingenuous.

This is the Jahmyr Gibbs show, with Montgomery doing the best he can in an 11-14 touch role. Is he the best 11-14 touch role player in the game? I’d say so, but looking for any sort of role expansion moving forward is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.

De’Von Achane | MIA (at CAR)

Through the first month of the season, De’Von Achane ranks 16th of 36 running backs in yards gained per carry before contact, a rate I expect to dip following the career-threatening injury to Tyreek Hill.

The motion schemes and respect that his speed carries spread defenses thin, thus opening up some running lanes that otherwise may not exist.

The efficiency could fall (4.9 yards per carry this season), but his stock as a fantasy lineup lock isn’t going anywhere, thanks to his involvement in the passing game. Achane is pacing for an 81-catch season and will be counted on more than he was Monday night (two yards on one catch) moving forward, as the game script will force Miami to lean into that.

He gave you 101 total yards and a touchdown last week, and that 15-20 PPR point range is where I expect him to trend more often than not. The scoring equity isn’t great, but he already has a pair of 7+ reception games this season, and I could see 6-8 targets being the norm moving forward.

The injury to Hill hurts this offense in a ton of ways, but I don’t think Achane’s fantasy outlook changes in a major way.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs HOU)

We have to live with some things.

If you schedule an East Coast wedding in July, you’re betting on the weather being nice.

If you buy tickets to a Lakers game that isn’t a back-to-back, you’re betting on seeing LeBron James.

If you rent an Airbnb, you’re betting on the electricity bill being paid.

These are all strong percentage bets, and if you’re wrong, you simply take it on the chin. You’d make the same decision every time, understanding that there are far more positive outcomes than negative ones, and you’ll live with the probability game.

That’s what Derrick Henry is to me. He has three straight games with under 11 PPR points, and that matches his total from last year.

I think you take it and move on, looking forward, not back.

Henry isn’t always fast out of the gates (he’s actually averaging more points per touch and per carry this season than he averaged through the first four weeks in the two years prior), but he’s typically there when it matters (over 18 PPR points in 10 of his last 14 games played in Weeks 12-17).

He’s always been a player who is at risk of the game script, so your bet this summer was also one on Baltimore as a whole. If you think this team is going to continue to win only 25% of their games, then yes, you’re in trouble.

However, considering that the Ravens have three losses, all of which have come at the hands of teams that could still be playing late into January (Bills, Lions, and Chiefs), I’m not yet in panic mode.

I’m not looking to trade King Henry and am not entertaining benching him against a legitimate Texans defense. Charge the early struggles to the game and move on.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (vs MIN)

Dylan Sampson is the type of player that inactive fantasy managers tell on themselves with.

There’s zero reason for him to be rostered. The pass-catching role that made him valuable in Week 1 has evaporated, and Quinshon Judkins, who wasn’t on the active roster when that big Week 1 performance occurred, is the alpha back in Cleveland.

In total, Sampson has zero rushing yards and zero catches over the past two weeks. Both of those busts came against NFC North opponents, and I can’t imagine a third straight game against maybe the best division in the sport holds much of a different result.

Judkins has one of the 10 most favorable roles in our game, and it’s clear that the Browns are in no hurry to take food off of his plate.

Emari Demercado | ARI (vs TEN)

Emari Demercado had the big touchdown reception last week, and the fact that he was even on the field for that play indicates that the team is confident with him in situations, but that situation has now changed.

Trey Benson was placed on IR on Wednesday (knee), opening the door for Demercado to handle double-digit carries in addition to the route-running niche he was carving out.

How he does with the extended work is a bit of a mystery. We are almost two full years clear from the last time he was used like that, and the efficiency was so-so at best.

That said, this is a soft landing spot, and that makes him a fine PPR flex play, even with the uncertainty about his exact role and ability to fill it efficiently.

His workload in future weeks will likely hinge on how he looks Sunday, but the schedule does him no real favors. The Colts are up next with the Packers in Week 7 before the bye.

Rachaad White was another RB who was elevated in role on Wednesday, and I much prefer him to Demercado this week if you can pick and choose, but both can be started in most formats thanks to a sudden high-floor role.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at JAX)

The Chiefs’ offense looked fixed last week against the Ravens, and “fixed” essentially meant letting Patrick Mahomes cook with Xavier Worthy back in the fold.

Not a bad plan.

Week 4, Chiefs Backfield (snaps, touches, routes)

• Hunt: 31 / 14 / 15
• Pacheco: 26 / 9 / 16

Isiah Pacheco isn’t the third-down back, isn’t the red-zone back, and doesn’t have a game with more than 10 carries or two catches in it this season. I don’t doubt that he’ll make some important plays for the Chiefs this season, but the number of opportunities combined with the snaps in which he is on the field isn’t fantasy-friendly in the least.

I’ll continue to track Pacheco because I want a piece of this offense if I can get it, but I’ll be tracking him while he’s on my bench. Of his 38 touches in 2022, none have gained more than 12 yards, and a major problem is that the sheer number of opportunities is going to cap out under 15.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (at PHI)

J.K. Dobbins has seen his rushing yardage improve each week and has three top 20 performances under his belt through four weeks.

I was out on Dobbins this summer, fearing the limited work in the pass game, the health track record, and the potential of RJ Harvey.

I’ve been wrong so far, but I do think I could win the war, despite losing the September battle.

The health thing is what it is: a 15-17 touch role is a lot to ask for from a player who has struggled to stay on the field for a half-decade now.

The passing game? Dobbins doesn’t yet have a multi-catch game and is averaging 4.5 receiving yards per game.

The rookie? Harvey is coming off his best game of the season. Now, it came against the Bengals, and that’s important, but the confidence he gained and the reps he put on tape for Sean Payton are also important.

Dobbins is a viable RB2 for now, and I expect that to be the case as long as he remains healthy. How long do you wait to cash in this chip?

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at LAC)

Is it possible that this team didn’t trade away Brian Robinson this summer because of anything against him, but because they simply had no interest in committing to a single RB in this committee era?

Washington RB snaps, Week 4

• Chris Rodriguez: 20 (eight routes and two red zone touches)
• Croskey-Merritt: 17 (five routes and zero red zone touches)
• Jeremy McNichols: 16 (12 routes and one red zone touch)

If I had to pick, Jacory Croskey-Merritt would be my guy, but it’s a limited skill set (three receptions in four games) in an offense that trusts a healthy Jayden Daniels to do it all.

This running game is essentially sunscreen for a vacation: it’s required but not exciting.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at CIN)

Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged north of 6.0 yards per carry or caught five passes in all four games this season. Other than that, he’s been ordinary.

Detroit’s lead back is in the mix for top scorer at the position this season and hasn’t experienced any dip in usage resulting from the coordinator change. The fact that he doesn’t have a 100-yard rushing game or a 10-yard reception is about as fluky as it gets: what do you say we check both of those boxes on Sunday?

The Bengals struggle to stop everyone, and everyone struggles to stop Gibbs. It’s hard to see this going well for the home team on short rest.

James Cook | BUF (vs NE)

From 2022-23, 61 players had more rushing scores than James Cook.

From 2024-25, Cook leads the NFL with 21 rushing scores.

That total since 2024 is more rushing touchdowns than 23 teams have over that same stretch. The man they call “Jimbo” has had at least one touchdown in every game this season (a franchise record eight straight dating back to last season) and has caught 3 or more passes in three of four contests.

He doesn’t have the borderline irresponsible usage rates of a Christian McCaffrey, but with an MVP-level quarterback, he’s as featured as you could possibly ask, and I suspect we see more of the same in this spot.

Cook has had 17 red zone touches in his past four games against the Patriots, and with them having allowed a touchdown on seven of eight trips inside their 20 this season, all signs point to continued dominance for #4.

Javonte Williams | DAL (at NYJ)

The list of running backs with a stronger role than Javonte Williams is a small one if it’s really a list at all.

Against the Packers last week, he had eight more carries than any of his teammates had rushing yards and earned 3+ targets for the fourth consecutive game.

Reasonable minds can differ when it comes to the skill set of a player, but the usage is nothing short of elite, and if this Dallas offense is going to be playing with the sort of confidence we saw in Week 4, that puts Williams in the low-end RB1 discussion.

Williams has been very good, and that’s how this backfield is going to pay off: one player dominates the work. Blue opened the season with a chance to be that guy, but that’s not going to be the case.

That’s a little rich for my liking, but he’s a lineup lock regardless of where you sit in that discussion. Williams has posted elite post-contact numbers in consecutive weeks and has gained at least five yards on 41.3% of his carries.

For the record, Jonathan Taylor is the only other RB with a 90% gain rate and a 40% 5+ yard gain rate this season. The Jets’ defense can be stingy, but getting them on a short week isn’t a bad thing, and Williams enters Week 5 with RB1 status for me.

Jaydon Blue | DAL (at NYJ)

Another healthy scratch for Jaydon Blue in Week 4, and I think we can move on without much concern as we near bye week involvement.

This is Javonte Williams’ backfield to lose, and it really is that simple. Miles Sanders has been the secondary option. If his ankle injury proves to be something of note, maybe Blue can work his way onto the field, but it’s going to take a lot more than that to garner our interest.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at LAC)

Jeremy McNichols is on the field, but as far as we are concerned, he’s not really a part of this committee. The 60-yard touchdown in Week 3 is a highlight that may jump to mind when you hear this name, but he’s yet to record five touches in a game this season, and that’s never going to get it done.

Against the Falcons last week, a game without Jayden Daniels, McNichols accounted for 9.1% of Washington’s rush attempts and 8.3% of their targets. This is an annoying committee, but it’s not one with three heads that need to be rostered.

Joe Mixon | HOU (at BAL)

Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has over 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that its starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.

The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.

Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in its schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Weeks 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).

That said, if you’re burning a valuable roster spot on Mixon, I’d be comfortable moving on.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs LV)

Jonathan Taylor gained 96 yards from scrimmage last week … his lowest mark of the season. Not only is that a remarkably high floor, but it also shouldn’t be the case, as he had a 53-yard touchdown pulled back due to an Adonai Mitchell holding penalty that probably wasn’t necessary.

But Mitchell hasn’t had a good week, so I won’t pile on. Taylor has a 17-carry, 2-catch floor right now, and that puts him ahead of anyone not named Christian McCaffrey in terms of usage.

The Raiders’ run defense has been better than expected, but JT is on a different level than Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Breece Hall, or D’Andre Swift.

Taylor is a member of my RB Tier 1 this week, for the remainder of the season, and for the remainder of the decade until I see signs of aging.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at CLE)

Jordan Mason lacks the fluidity in the pass game that I want from my backs, but the volume on the ground is enough to land him as an RB2 in my rankings, even against a Dawg Pound that is hard to run at.

An early fumble was returned for a score last week before replay overturned it: the Vikings showed zero hesitation in going back to him.

When all was said and done in that Ireland game, Mason accounted for 16 of 18 RB carries with Zavier Scott serving as the pass-catching back. Last week was a version of how I expect this offense to look when Aaron Jones returns, and that means Mason is poised to be a viable starter the rest of the way in my eyes.

The offensive line impacts two-down backs quite a bit, and that’s a concern these days in Minnesota. OT Brian O’Neill (knee) and C Ryan Kelly (concussion) were removed early last week, and their statuses deserve to be monitored.

I’m playing Mason regardless, but he’ll fall outside of my top 15 should one of those two big men miss this game.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at JAX)

Sometimes I wonder if Andy Reid will just remove all running backs from his play designs and see how much chaos he can cause with Patrick Mahomes at the controls.

Kareem Hunt is getting the goal-line work, and that makes him a touch more valuable than Isiah Pacheco, but the role in the passing game isn’t there for either (Hunt has six targets in four games), and this team wants their fate decided on their dropbacks.

I prefer Hunt to Pacheco this week, believe Pacheco has the better chance to win this role outright, and have zero confidence in starting either in any sort of format.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs TB)

Kenneth Walker touched the ball in three of Seattle’s first three plays last week, a run of usage that included a well-designed pass play that picked up 29 yards. On the second drive of the game, Sam Darnold put the ball in his stomach for three straight carries, and they picked up 9, 21, and 8 yards.

There is no denying the upside play in this backfield is Walker over Zach Charbonnet. There’s not much debate there, but he’s also the running back most likely to put the Seahawks behind the chains, and that is where this gets complicated.

I’m going to prefer Walker to Charbonnet because I like to have access to a week-winner at the running back position. For this matchup specifically, I like the idea of the perimeter runner. With Darnold playing at a high level, Walker feels poised to expose a thinly spread defense in a big way sooner than later.

And I want to be there for when it happens.

Michael Carter | ARI (vs TEN)

Michael Carter gets an interesting shot this week with Trey Benson sidelined and Emari Demarcado has his only real competition for work in this backfield in a favorable spot against the Titans.

This, of course, isn’t the first time we’ve seen him in such a role, it’s just been a while. For his career, he’s averaged 16.7 PPR points per game when being trusted with 15+ touches and that figures to be roughly where he lands usage wise.

He has a versatile skill set which is valuable, though it stands to reason the believe he’ll be more of a two-down back with Demarcado playing passing downs. In this specific spot, that role projects favorably and that’s why I have him sitting just inside of my top 25 at the position this week with Demarcado a handful of spots lower.

Miles Sanders | DAL (at NYJ)

Miles Sanders suffered an ankle injury in the first half of last week’s tie against the Packers, and while his status is worth monitoring, his value is pretty set at this point.

Javonte Williams has locked himself into the bellcow role for America’s Team, with Sanders as the clear RB2 and rookie Jaydon Blue an afterthought.

Williams has run out of gas in the past, so if you want to roster Sanders as a cheap bet against Dallas’s current RB1, I think that’s logical.

Nick Chubb | HOU (at BAL)

Nick Chubb has been held under nine PPR points in three of his past four and is trending away from the high-volume role that made him of any interest to use in the first place.

In Weeks 1-3, the veteran’s snap share was hovering around 50%, but it fell to 40% against the Titans, and that’s much more in line with what I’m expecting moving forward, given the juice shown by Woody Marks.

Of the 36 qualified RBs, Chubb ranks 30th in fantasy points per run. This offensive line ranks in the bottom tier of the NFL, and that removes almost all hope for a player like Chubb.

I have no problem with you holding onto Chubb for a few more weeks, but I certainly wouldn’t plan on having him near your starting lineup.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (at CAR)

Ollie Gordon is a secondary back who doesn’t catch passes. Normally, that type of player doesn’t make this column, but due to the Tyreek Hill knee injury, we have to weigh all possibilities.

Could De’Von Achane see his slot usage tick up and leave us with a pounding run game that relies more on a 225-pound rookie?

I’m not ruling it out. Even if that doesn’t come to pass, Gordon is a legitimate handcuff back worth rostering. Still, I think there’s a reasonable path for him to work into flex value, and that’s why you have to make sure he’s not just sitting on your waiver wire due to the underwhelming season stat line (20 touches for 64 yards).

Omarion Hampton | LAC (vs WAS)

Injury breeds opportunity, and there may be no better example in 2025 than Omarion Hampton.

Najee Harris was lost for the season in Week 3, and that has spurred back-to-back top 7 finishes at the position for Los Angeles’ first-round pick.

In both of those games, he rushed for a score (the 54-yard one last week saw him outrun every angle that the New York defenders had), earned 5+ targets, and picked up 19+ yards on one of his receptions. Hampton is a do-it-all back capable of carrying the mail at a high level for a potentially elite offense.

The concern for the foreseeable future is running room. This was already a struggling offensive line, and now it will be without Joe Alt for a bit. Remove the 54-yard dash last week, and Hampton is averaging a tick over four yards per carry, something that isn’t reflective of his overwhelming talent.

You’re starting Hampton and not thinking twice about it, but I’m inclined to look elsewhere in DFS contests this weekend.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs MIN)

Quinshon Judkins ranks seventh at the position in gain rate (87.8%) and second in yards per carry after first contact. He’s already one of the hardest running backs in the sport, and it would seem that the Browns finally opened their eyes to that last week.

After messing around with a few Joe Flacco attempts, Cleveland called Judkins’ number on the doorstep in Detroit, and he paid it off. We saw some glimpses of creativity after that, including a play-action screen pass where he was the focal point for the entire play and picked up 16 yards in the process.

The Browns haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game with Judkins this season, and that’s going to continue to be a limiting factor, but the versatile skill set and unquestioned role give him a top 20 floor in any given week with the potential for more.

Rachaad White | TB (vs SEA)

Rachaad White spent September as a secondary back to Bucky Irving, one who would get on the field on occasion, but not of any real interest to us.

I still expect that to be the case down the stretch of the season, but with Irving labeled as ‘week-to-week’ with a foot sprain, White vaults into the RB2 conversation for the short-term.

We’ve seen him be a productive weapon in the passing game, and that’s a reliable trait, but the rushing metrics have looked great in his limited work this season.

His gain rate sits at 91.3% in 2025, well above the worst showing of his career in 2024 (79.9%) and something that could earn him close to a 50/50 carry split with Sean Tucker in addition to dominating the route running role.

This isn’t a great matchup, and there isn’t a strong spot until Week 8, but Irving’s role lands him in my top 20 this week, and that’ll be the case as long as Irving is on the shelf.

Ray Davis | BUF (vs NE)

Ray Davis would, in theory, slide into the role that has made James Cook a fringe Tier 1 running back, and that potential alone makes him worth rostering.

That said, he’s failed to clear two touches in three of four games and is a long way away from standalone value.

I like rostering a piece like this, but not too many. Weaponizing your bench is critical when it comes to positioning yourself to win your league, and a player like Davis can certainly be a part of that mix, even if he’s completely off the weekly radar when Cook is active.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at BUF)

Mike Vrabel pretty clearly doesn’t care about us fantasy managers.

Even after a game with two lost fumbles that came on the heels of a preseason lost fumble that came on the heels of a season with ball security issues, Rhamondre Stevenson was used as the RB1 in New England.

Drake Maye’s versatility eliminates all RBs from fantasy lineup consideration if they aren’t heavily featured, and I fear that is the direction we are headed. Stevenson, as “the guy,” has yet to reach a dozen carries in a game this year.

Whether you want to rank it Stevenson-Henderson or Henderson-Stevenson, I’m not sure it matters. Personally, I prefer Henderson based on the projected game script, but neither is a top 25 play for me this week, and I expect that to be the case moving forward.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (vs MIA)

Rico Dowdle is set to take over the lead role in Carolina with Chuba Hubbard banged up and he moves right into the low-end RB2 conversation, even without any proof of concept this year.

The Dolphins have allowed north of 16 PPR points to a running back in each of the past three weeks and if sportsbooks have this game projected accurately, game script should keep him involved for all 60 minutes, rarely a given for the Panthers.

You’ll remember Dowdle from his success in Dallas last season, but he was held under fantasy expectations in 10 of those 16 games. He’s a plug-and-play, but I don’t think he’s a week winner.

RJ Harvey | DEN (at PHI)

The final snap data from Monday night paints an optimistic picture (two fewer snaps, one more route, and three more red zone touches than J.K. Dobbins), but the score disrupted the flow of that blowout win.

Dobbins held a 19-14 snap edge when the game was within 14 points, but this game never really felt competitive, which makes it difficult to get too excited.

That said, 98 total yards and a touchdown is impressive against any level of NFL competition. R.J. Harvey looked, as expected, dangerous in space, and I thought he ran hard despite none of his 14 carries gaining more than nine yards.

Context is king, and I need to see more. This game wasn’t close, and Denver was fully aware that they now have a short work week to prepare for the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Harvey is still off my flex radar, ranking in the same neighborhood as Emari Demercado, Kendre Miller, and Ollie Gordon as complementary RBs that should be penciled in for a handful of touches.

The value lies more in the long-term outlook. My hunch is that Harvey was cut in plenty of leagues (18 touches through the first three weeks) and that was a mistake. Even if you’re taking the cautious approach with his October rates like I am, Dobbins’ health track record leaves plenty to be desired, making it very possible that this is the Harvey show when your league is on the line.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs DEN)

Is it weird that I’m higher now on Saquon Barkley than I was during the preseason?

The All-Pro has cleared 60 rushing yards just once this season, but he’s scored in three of four and has caught four passes in three of four, a major accomplishment given the limited opportunities through the air as a part of this offense.

The concern entering this season was potential workload regression. We haven’t seen an ounce of that. The dramatic plays haven’t been there yet, but those sorts of plays are fickle and can resurface at any time.

Barkley is a top 5 running back for me and could take advantage of a run defense that struggled before last week and is now on short rest.

Sean Tucker | TB (vs SEA)

Sean Tucker has just one touch this season for a reason, but he’s now a must-add with Irving (foot sprain) out for at least one week and potentially more.

Rachaad White has excelled in the passing game in the past and will likely still dominate the usage from a routes perspective, but the two-down work could be split pretty evenly, and that at last puts Tucker on the flex radar, given the potency of this offense.

At the very least, he’s someone who should be rostered in every league.

Tony Pollard | TEN (at ARI)

Tony Pollard is checking the volume boxes (18+ carries or multiple receptions in every game this season), but he’s not doing anything with it. And I’m not sure that changes against the seventh-best post-contact run defense in the league.

Of the 36 qualified running backs, Pollard ranks 33rd in fantasy production relative to expectations. Cam Akers has his moments, but not enough of them to impact how defenses approach this offense, and that leads me to believe that Pollard is unlikely to see his efficiency improve.

I like the fact that 14.3% of his touches over the past two weeks have come in the pass game (Weeks 1-2: 2.6%), though there isn’t enough scoring equity as a part of this offense to get him inside of my top 20, even with an elite workload.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs KC)

It feels like the Jags are fortunate to be where they are, and that has helped the case for their bellcow back (16+ touches in every game thus far).

Travis Etienne has taken full advantage of the work. If it feels like you see a chunk play from him weekly, you’re not wrong. He’s the only RB with a 30+ yard run in three of four weeks and has looked great in committing to his running lanes.

I do worry a bit about the fact that he’s averaging just eight receiving yards per game this season, but his resume does suggest that this is in his profile.

There is a yin-and-yang to this situation, and while I do think his exact role will change with time, I’m confident enough that he can handle any shift and provide RB2 value for the remainder of the season.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (at BUF)

Sadly, I think we can all tell where this is headed, at least in the short term.

Vibes were high for TreVeyson Henderson’s managers after the fumble fest that was Week 3, and we got a glimpse of a lead role.

Week 3 after Stevenson’s second lost fumble:

• Henderson: 26 offensive snaps (9 rushes)
• Antonio Gibson: 6 (2 rushes, 1 fumble)
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 5 (0 rushes)

Or so we hoped. Mike Vrabel insisted on needing a committee, and he stuck true to his word in the Week 4 win over the Panthers. Stevenson played more snaps than Antonio Gibson and Henderson combined, while the touches were pretty evenly split among the trio.

If you have three backs, you have none as far as we are concerned.

Henderson is the long-term winner of work, but that doesn’t appear to be an imminent situation. I’m interested in this spot, a defense that hasn’t performed well, and an offense that could apply pressure. So, I’m not ruling out a nice Henderson game, but I’m also not actively looking to flex him in situations where I have similar options.

Trey Benson | ARI (vs TEN)

Trey Benson was banged up a little in Week 4, but little was made of what we assumed was some minor knee soreness.

Not so much.

On Wednesday, the Cardinals placed their starting running back on injured reserve, ruling him out for the next month at a minimum. Adam Schefter reported optimism surrounding his ability to return in the second half of this season. Still, if you thought you had a weekly asset, you now have to pivot.

Emari Demercado is the next man up, and he’s a viable flex play in PPR formats, should you be able to scoop him up.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (at ARI)

Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here. What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.

I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on injured reserve, but eligible to be activated), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.

RELATED: Tyjae Spears Injury Update: Will Fantasy Managers Get the Tennessee Titans RB Back From IR This Week?

If you have room on your bench/IR, stashing Spears is the play, understanding that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t be. Pollard is handling a ton of work (38 rushes through two weeks) and not showing much upside (long run: 10 yards).

Spears offers cheap exposure to the Cam Ward experience that you can ditch at a moment’s notice if the roster space becomes more valuable and is used differently.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at NO)

They tell young kids that you can’t lose your job due to injury, and in amateur athletics, I’m all here for that messaging.

This isn’t that.

Tyrone Tracy is expected to miss up to another few weeks with a dislocated shoulder, and much like Aaron Jones in Minnesota, I’m not the least bit confident that the role he’s leaving behind is remotely comparable to what he’ll get when he returns.

I’m keeping Tracy rostered if for no other reason than Cam Skattebo runs like a maniac and that carries injury potential of its own, but with this franchise giving the keys to Jaxson Dart, the youth movement is underway. While Tracy isn’t old even by running back standards, he’s more than two years older than Skattebo, and that matters.

Tracy is a good player, but at 3.1 yards per carry this year, it’s not as if what he’s doing can’t be replicated.

Woody Marks | HOU (at BAL)

Did we just witness a changing of the guard?

Woody Marks certainly looked to provide this limited offense with something that it has been missing last week in the shutout win over the Titans (21 touches for 119 yards and two scores), and the versatility has my attention.

That said, it was a game against lowly Tennessee, so let’s not get too crazy.

Marks held a 5-4 carry edge over Nick Chubb in the first quarter last week and picked up a fourth-and-short situation later in the first half. Houston is clearly interested, and a matchup with a Ravens defense that is limping in could be a nice spot to soft-launch their rookie as their lead back.

I’ve got Marks 10 spots higher than Chubb this week at the RB position, and that puts him firmly in the flex conversation, ahead of Isiah Pacheco and Breece Hall.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs TB)

A foot injury cost Zach Charbonnet in Week 3 against the Saints, but I can’t help but think that was as much a matter of strategy as a limitation.

Seattle was highly likely to win that game with or without the end of their committee, and with a short week on deck, was it possible that the Seahawks were intentional with his recovery?

Kenneth Walker III got the first run on Thursday night and looked good. Through two drives, Walker had picked up 35 yards on his five rushes while Charbonnet was stuffed on a fourth-down effort for his only carry.

The rest of the game, however, went basically to script. Walker either lost yardage or picked up 5+ yards on the majority of his carries, while Charbonnet was more of the consistent runner.

The strong start for Walker left him with a 33-26 edge in snaps and 20-14 in touches, but it was Charbonnet who finished with more fantasy points, thanks to a hard-nosed TD plunge.

If a second score doesn’t come off the board due to a Jaxon Smith-Njigba holding penalty, one that ultimately didn’t impact the play, we are probably having a slightly different conversation.

Both running backs carry risk this week, but I think both are viable flex plays against a top-5 rush defense in all metrics. Charbonnet carries a more narrow range of weekly outcomes, and given that he is the primary red zone/passing-down option (two more red zone snaps than Walker this season, despite the missed game), a double-digit point performance in this spot is a reasonable expectation.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs DEN)

Any week that features more passive-aggressive tweets from your WR1 than second-half completions from your quarterback is concerning.

But was the Week 4 result really all that surprising?

The Eagles took a 7-0 lead before their first offensive snap, and once the game script goes that direction, we are in trouble. A.J. Brown is Derrick Henry in receiver form, but if Henry were on a bad football team.

That is, both are elite when their number is called, but both will battle volume issues if the game requires them to work outside of their specific set of skills.

There’s nothing actionable to do here (or with Henry, for that matter). You take your lumps now and hope for better. I think the Broncos can push the Eagles, and I actually think a Patrick Surtain shadow might not be the worst thing.

Surtain is great, don’t get me wrong. Still, there might not be a human on this planet who can shut down Brown in single coverage consistently, so if Denver can keep up and elects to put their best corner on an island, it’s possible we see more shot plays this week (Broncos: fourth-highest opponent aDOT this season) than we did in most of September.

Adam Thielen | MIN (at CLE)

As expected, Adam Thielen was an afterthought on Sunday in Ireland with Jordan Addison back.

What surprised me was Jalen Nailor getting his fair share of valuable snaps/routes/targets. I’m very skeptical that this offense can sustain three pass catchers, never mind four, and that makes Thielen unrosterable in all formats.

The Nailor usage rules out any hope for Thielen truthers. It feels like we are multiple injuries away from a role that would give the veteran any hope, and that’s assuming that this franchise gets above-average QB play, another thing that is far from guaranteed.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at CIN)

If it weren’t for Puka Nacua, the praise for Amon-Ra St. Brown would be through the roof.

He scored “only” 11 touchdowns on 196 receptions through his first two seasons, but he has more than corrected that since then and leads the position in TD receptions with 28.

His role hasn’t flinched this season from last, something that was mentioned as a concern with the departure of Ben Johnson. In fact, with him earning a look on 47.6% of his red zone routes this season (2021: 33%), I’d argue that he’s leveled up.

St. Brown is a Tier 1 receiver and is a real threat to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way. He’s a difference-maker this year, a first-round pick next season, and a dynasty-building block at the most important position.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs KC)

Just when we thought we had hit rock bottom, Brian Thomas has a lapse in concentration and doesn’t get two feet down in bounds in a sideline target against the 49ers.

The 3-1 Jaguars are winning without really any help from their WR1, so why would they expect them to make getting him going (statistically) a priority?

Last week was his lowest on-field target share of the season, and the Chiefs on extended rest isn’t exactly a “get right” sort of spot.

Even with bye weeks watering down the player pool, BTJ sits outside of my top 25 at the position and is a flex option that comes with risk.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (at ARI)

The Titans made a change in play-caller ahead of Week 4, and that felt like switching from an umbrella to a poncho when dealing with a hurricane.

Tennessee didn’t score a single point against the Texans, and that left Calvin Ridley again out in the cold. Their presumptive WR1 is without a top-50 finish this season, and if Eric Ayomani is coming for his role as the top target in this offense, I’m not sure things will turn around in the short term.

I’m OK with being stubborn in situations like this. You didn’t plan on having Ridley as a weekly lineup lock, and you were buying some stock in the Cam Akers development project.

That stock is on shaky ground right now, but we see these young QBs spike at a moment’s notice (see 2024 Bryce Young), so as long as you can field a competitive roster around benching Ridley, I’d keep him on the team.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs MIN)

Cedric Tillman was a popular waiver claim after earning eight targets and scoring in the season opener, but that feels like a long time ago now.

He technically found paydirt the following week, but that was on a bizarre deflection that had no business of paying off. Without that fortunate bounce, Tillman has 8.6 PPR points in total since the strong Week 1 performance and was trending on his way back toward the free agent waters.

We got news on Monday that the hamstring injury he suffered in Detroit will result in multiple missed games, and that means you can pretty safely move on. The volume in Cleveland has dropped off in a meaningful way, and if the target count isn’t going to overwhelm, a healthy Tillman is a tough sell.

Move on.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at NYJ)

Jerry Jones left the door open for CeeDee Lamb to be placed on IR, and that’s obviously a major concern. It didn’t happen, but it was a conversation, and that’s telling.

The ankle injury is one thing, but things could get really ugly, really fast in Dallas. They are currently 1-2-1 and in a brutal spot this week. In theory, they have two winnable games coming up (Jets and Panthers), but what if Lamb’s absence short-circuits this offense and the defense can’t get off the field?

The Cowboys’ bye doesn’t come until Week 10, and it sounds as if Lamb will be back before then, but he’s missing plus-matchups after this week and potentially returning for a Week 12-16 stretch that is as brutal as it gets in the league.

Lamb is an elite talent, but I do worry about the team being cautious with a superstar who will earn a base salary of $25 million or more in both 2026 and 2027.

Chris Godwin | TB (at SEA)

If Chris Godwin was hampered on Sunday (ankle) in his season debut, I didn’t see any evidence of it. In taking the field for the first time in over 11 months, he earned 10 looks in a tough matchup with the Eagles and had a 72.1% route participation rate.

The target count feels stable (8+ targets in seven of his past eight games), and I expect that to be the case for at least the short term. We don’t know exactly how much time Mike Evans is going to miss, but it’s a soft tissue issue for a veteran: an extended absence is possible, and even if that’s not the case, a return to performance isn’t a lock once he steps back onto the field.

The efficiency figures are to improve as Godwin works his way into shape. I was very encouraged by his first action post-surgery and am hopeful that we are looking at a flexible piece as soon as this week, with four teams on bye.

Chris Olave | NO (vs NYG)

Chris Olave throws an interception, which costs you points, and sees half the targets he entered the game averaging, so, of course, he scores his first touchdown of the season.

The hope for a target hog like Olave is that the rare weeks in which he finds the end zone, he pays off in a major way, but that wasn’t the case in Buffalo. I was impressed with Rattler’s ball-handling on that touchdown, but the bad plays far outweigh the good ones in New Orleans at this point.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Assistant

If you’re curious, DeAndre Hopkins (2016) is the only active player to have a 150+ target season that netted fewer than 1,000 receiving yards (934). Trivia like that is what the 2025 Saints could impact, not your weekly starting lineup.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs TB)

There was a third-down, zone-beating route on the second drive that set up the AJ Barner touchdown and a scripted red zone catch in motion Thursday night against the Cardinals, but that was about it.

For the third time in four games, the former fantasy god was held under 35 receiving yards, and we are coming up on 10 months since his last touchdown.

I’m not going to say that Kupp is washed, but I will say that he’s unlikely to win in a big way for himself. That is, he’s going to produce at the levels that the Seahawks pencil in for him and nothing more.

Entering the season, there was a world in which we’d have taken that, but with Tory Horton appearing capable of handling an increased workload, it’s not going to be enough.

Kupp has been on the field for 71.6% of Seattle’s offensive snaps this season, and that’s enough to keep him on rosters. He, however, is unlikely to grace as a top 35 receiver for me at any time in the near future, even with bye weeks now a factor.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at PHI)

That’s now three of four weeks in which Courtland Sutton has caught at least a handful of passes with a touchdown as he seems to have weathered the Bo Nix storm.

Sean Payton is playing with the usage rates and roles of everyone in this offense besides Sutton, which puts his WR1 in the fantasy WR1 conversation this weekend, even in a tough matchup.

Sutton’s aDOT, route tree, and target rate are all in line with what we saw last season. In fact, the one thing that stands out as different is a dip in red zone usage, something that hints that there is room for growth as we approach the middle of the fantasy season.

Darius Slayton | NYG (at NO)

Personally, I don’t think there’s much actionable coming out of the Malik Nabers injury. But if you’re going to increase the stock of one player as a result of an increase in opportunity, I think it’s Darius Slayton.

17 career games with 8+ targets:

• 15.4 PPR PPG
• 90 catches
• 1,300 yards
• 7 TDs

He’s very much a volume shooter: give him enough chances, and eventually something connects. This offense clearly got a shot in the arm from Jaxson Dart last week, and if the rookie can build on his impressive starting debut, Slayton stands to work his way into the “I don’t love it, but I’m stuck and want upside” tier at the position with bye weeks now on our radar.

The increase in projected role is nice for his ceiling odds, but it doesn’t do much to squash my floor concerns, and that’s why he’s off my flex radar this weekend, even in a plus spot.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs HOU)

The future Hall of Famer doesn’t need to be a part of your plans moving forward.

It may sound harsh, but if the Ravens don’t trust him to be out there, why should we?

DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t seen more than three balls thrown his way in a game this season and has yet to be extended past a 34% snap share. I still think that if Baltimore is going to turn this season around, Hopkins will make a few impact plays in scoring situations, but responsible projecting will never have me predicting which week that occurs.

Roster space is too valuable to hold a profile like this.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at LAC)

We spent all offseason worrying about Christian McCaffrey’s health, and now he’s the only man standing in San Francisco.

We’ve spent time worried about Deebo Samuel’s style of play and how it would age, but again, he’s the primary option in Washington without medical concerns.

Last week, one that started with the Commanders in reasonable health, Samuel handled the first rush attempt. Throughout the game, we saw the vintage version of him. There was a toe-tap on fourth down early in the second quarter and a fade route touchdown in a “gotta have it” spot in the final period.

Luke McCaffrey saw the first target of Week 4 and seems to be coming into his own a bit, but I’m not too worried about that subtracting from our bottom line here. This is a tough matchup, and that has Samuel sitting at the back-end of my WR2 tier instead of the middle, but I’m comfortable going in this direction, regardless of how the health shakes out around him heading into this game.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs DEN)

The second the Eagles returned that blocked punt for a touchdown, we all knew what was coming.

Another strong overall performance that asked very little of the pass game.

Lovely.

Dallas Goedert soaked up the valuable targets, and while Tampa Bay battled to make this thing competitive, DeVonta Smith failed to clear 60 receiving yards for the fourth time in as many weeks.

You knew this in August, so you can’t really complain. At no point did you draft any Philadelphia pass catcher with the illusion that you were chasing a high-volume offense. You wanted a piece of a successful team, and you got it.

Now we wait.

We’ve got the Eagles faking the Tush Push, and A.J. Brown posting cryptic tweets. We’ve gotten everything from the defending champs besides a loss. This is a very unique team that is hellbent on establishing their identity and executing you to death.

I think Smith will have a few big games. Same with Brown. Same with Goedert. The shame in it is that we just have to wait. I don’t love this specific spot against a strong secondary that could be playing behind a fatigued line due to the short week. Still, Smith is an 85% catch-rate player right now who is being put in the slot at a career-high rate, the exact profile we want for a receiver in a low-volume offense.

We wait.

I have Smith ranked in the Tee Higgins/Jaylen Waddle tier this week and most weeks: WR2s on their own offenses that carry a wide range of weekly outcomes. I’m comfortable with flexing Smith, but I’m not going out of my way to jam him in (for reference, I’m #TeamChris and have both Olave and Godwin ranked ahead of Smith this week, with Jordan Addison a few spots lower).

Emeka Egbuka | TB (at SEA)

Since 2005, only three players have opened their career with at least 275 receiving yards and four TD receptions through four games: Martavis Bryant (2014), Ja’Marr Chase (2021), and Emeka Egbuka (2025).

He’s been nothing short of remarkable, and while it required an outlier 77-yard touchdown last week to get him there, he’s seen his target count increase with each passing week. The flipping of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for which receiver is active/inactive didn’t impact what this rookie’s role looked like.

Egbuka might be matchup-proof one month into his career.

He’s made a 30-yard-plus splash play in three of four games, and that’s the part of his profile that looks the best while Evans is on the shelf. That’s also the part of his profile that determines how you act moving forward.

If you think Evans is still in the mix to lead this team in targets during the second half of the season, the case can certainly be made to cash in this Egbuka chip now (pace: 1,199 yards and 17 TDs). In this situation, I’d be looking for a veteran receiver off to a slow start (Terry McLaurin, DeVonta Smith, etc.) with a running back that you can trust weekly (Cam Akers, Quinshon Judkins, etc.).

If you believe that Evans is cooked, hold onto Egbuka like your life depends on it: you might have a top-10 option at the position and a true difference-maker given the price you paid this summer.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs DAL)

All is fair in love and fantasy.

Garrett Wilson caught passes on New York’s final two plays during Monday night’s loss in Miami, tacking on 40 yards and a touchdown to what was a rather ordinary stat line prior.

The limitations of this offense, through the air at least, are evident, but the Jets are doing the one thing fantasy managers beg for, and that’s concentrating the targets.

Wilson has more targets than any two of his teammates combined, more receiving yards than any three of them, and 60% of the receiving TD share. His value is probably nearing its peak, if for no other reason than rates like that are difficult for anyone to sustain, so I’d be open to looking at the trade market.

After Sunday.

“Thou shall not trade away any player on the heels of a Cowboy matchup.”

Wilson is my WR6 for Week 5.

George Pickens | DAL (at NYJ)

I’ll own this one. I was dead wrong.

With CeeDee Lamb (high ankle sprain) in street clothes and an ultra-talented Packer defense on the other side, I thought that George Pickens would struggle to earn looks. I thought the entire Cowboys offense would struggle, so that’s an airball by me.

We learn and we move on.

That said, I’m not sure the process was that poor. Pickens profiled as a boom/bust player while with the Steelers, and we saw the positive side of that variance in Sunday night’s tie. His aDOT more than doubled from the week prior, and 45.5% of his targets came deep down field (the 10th instance this season in which a player with 10+ targets saw that type of usage this season).

He just cashed in. That sideline catch in double coverage was a work of art, and the go-ahead touchdown with under a minute to play in regulation was a reminder of just how talented Pickens is.

As good as he looked, it’s important to take the temperature of the room. Dak Prescott was playing at an elite level in Week 4, and if you think that sticks, you hold on tight to Pickens.

If not, the eventual return of Lamb combined with a tough finish to the season (Weeks 12-13 feature games against the Super Bowl participants from a season ago, both on short rest, and is followed up by a Lions, Vikings, Chargers trio of games that won’t be a walk in the park), makes him a sell candidate if someone views him as a top-10 WR the rest of the way.

By no means is he a must sell, but there is a price for everyone, and with his value potentially reaching its peak, it’s at least worth considering flipping this asset into one (or two) that can help you win a title in December.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs DET)

This has gone sideways, and it’s gone sideways fast.

In Week 2 against the Jaguars, the game in which Joe Burrow got hurt, Ja’Marr Chase finished with 14 catches on 16 targets for 165 yards and a touchdown.

In a game with that sort of volume, we’d expect at least one game-breaking play (long reception: 25 yards), but all things considered, we were happy. We were under the illusion that, even if the type of target were different, the Jake Browning experience would at least feature plenty of the consensus No. 1 from this summer.

And then Chase posted a WR41 performance against the Vikings in Week 3.

We were willing to make excuses about the game state, and hey, we did get a 28-yard completion, so that was something, right?

We should have seen it coming. This is a bad, but very expensive, steak that we are trying to convince ourselves is worth it. We are the furthest thing from unbiased. We have so much invested in this situation that we believe it can’t be as bad as it appears.

So we take another bite. And guess what? The bad steak is still a bad steak, no matter the mental gymnastics done on your end.

Monday night was another poor showing by the Bengals in another blowout loss. Arguably the most explosive receiver in our game turned eight targets into 23 yards and finished the week with fewer fantasy points than Mack Hollins.

This steak isn’t going to get any better, but it’s the only thing this restaurant sells.

Chase hasn’t been a top 30 receiver in eight of 10 career games with Browning being the primary QB. While his sub-6.5-aDOT in consecutive weeks hints at a true effort to get the ball in his hands, that’s only going to be so effective if the pass is off-target or there are four defenders in his shorts.

Can you tell I’m a little irritated?

In the two Browning starts, Tee Higgins’ aDOT is nearly triple that of Chase, and at this point, I’d welcome the variance. These dump-off passes feel almost like a white flag: at least Higgins is getting a chance, even if it’s a low one, to make an impactful play down the field.

And we are supposed to think this Cincinnati offense figures things out on a short week against a Lions defense rounding into form?

Chase isn’t any different than Brian Thomas at this point. He has no connection with his QB and no real signs of hope. If you want to flex him because you’re stubborn like me, you can cite the raw volume and projected game script as excuses, but they are just that. Excuses. You’re grasping for straws right now, and while that may work one of these weeks, the extended forecast is cloudy with a chance of nothingness.

Sometimes I hate this game.

Jakobi Meyers | LV (at IND)

Jakobi Meyers finally fell flat last week, catching four of seven targets for a season-low 30 yards against the Bears. There is always the risk of games like this when he’s relying on a random number generator at the QB position, but I’m willing to write off last week as a fluke.

The Raiders finally got Ashton Jeanty going in the loss to Chicago, and with Geno Smith offering up three INTs for the second time in three weeks, I don’t blame them for limiting how often the ball was put in the air (21 pass attempts).

They were able to execute that plan because the score was tight throughout, but that’s going to be a more difficult ask this week. Meyers has seen 33 passes thrown his way through four weeks, and I trust that level of involvement to get him back inside the top 30 performers at the position this week with relative ease.

I have Meyers just ahead of other chain movers in Deebo Samuel and Keenan Allen, both of whom, in my opinion, come with more target variance every week.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs MIA)

I was excited about Jalen Coker early in the draft process this summer, thinking that the second-year receiver had a real chance to earn meaningful targets in a developing offense. That optimism grew after the Adam Thielen trade, but a day later, a “significant quad injury” landed him on IR.

That means Coker has missed the required time, but reporting out of Carolina during this process seemed to point to mid-October as the most likely return date. I still believe there’s something in this profile, especially with Xavier Legette struggling and banged up.

If you have room at the end of your bench, I think this is a reasonable stashing option, if for no other reason than Carolina getting New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16. This isn’t a high waiver priority add, but if it costs you nothing, there’s more potential to chase than the last player on many rosters currently have access to.

Jalen McMillan | TB (at SEA)

Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard average depth of target on those touchdowns.

There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason (currently on IR with an absence that extends beyond the required four games, viewed as the most likely outcome).

There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I don’t expect the route/target count to be high enough to capture our interest. If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust. But for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.

You’re not going this direction unless you have an IR spot burning a hole in your pocket, though the Mike Evans injury does make this stash a touch more interesting with soft tissue issues carrying long-term risk.

Jameson Williams | DET (at CIN)

That’s how many top 50 weeks Jameson Williams has given fantasy managers this year, a bit of a buzzkill given the promise that he entered the season with.

Last week, he did drop what could have been roughly a 40-yard gain in the second quarter (floating target where he was switching what shoulder he was looking over … not an easy play, but a play he makes more often than not), and that’s where he’s going to have to win for you.

The Lions can kill defenses in a million ways, and that makes every opportunity critical. This is obviously a great matchup, but as a double-digit favorite, will Detroit need to swing big?

Will they need to put the ball in the air at all in the fourth quarter?

There will be weeks where Williams is a must-play, and while I have my concerns about the game script, I think you play him as your WR2 and take your chances.

Of note, he’s my second-ranked receiver in this game, something I would have never thought possible to say.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs TB)

This was never going to be a perfect season, and I don’t think any of us were under that illusion.

After clearing 95 receiving yards in three straight to open the season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was largely kept quiet on Thursday night.

Until he wasn’t.

Despite being held without a target in the first half, JSN salvaged his day with a few big plays late, finishing with 79 yards on his four receptions against the Cardinals.

Slowing him for 60 minutes is proving to be a task that NFL defenses aren’t up for, and the skill set is expanding with Sam Darnold under center.

Smith-Njigba has a 35-yard catch in all four contests this season, doubling the number of games with such a splash play from a season ago. He’s not a Malik Nabers type that falls into 8-10 targets, but as long as the Seahawks continue to view him as a hinge player (and why wouldn’t they?), his status as a locked-in top 15 receiver is here to stay.

Smith-Njigba had three carries in the Week 4 win (two more traditional tosses and one a quick screen-type of thing that was technically backwards), and that speaks to just how important his involvement is to the success of this team that has won three straight after a tough Week 1.

If last week was something of a floor performance, we are in for a big season, and you’re going to be earning a monster profit based on the price you paid this summer.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (at BAL)

Jayden Higgins found the end zone on Sunday against the Titans with a nice stutter move that gave C.J. Stroud a chance to hit him in stride for the 24-yard score.

There might be something in this profile in the long term, but that long term is beyond 2025. The rookie has seen exactly one target in three straight games and has yet to clear 15 routes in a game (41-45% snap share in all four contests).

This offense is struggling to have one receiver live up to his potential, and that’s just not the environment for a rookie to thrive.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at CAR)

Jaylen Waddle has a pair of top 24 finishes and a pair of weeks outside the top 40 at the position. While his target share figures to increase due to the devastating knee injury to Tyreek Hill, it’s hard to move forward with confidence in him being a lineup lock.

He’s pacing for under 800 receiving yards this season, and while I’d probably bet “over” on that number, it’s not going to be pretty. The integrity of this passing game relies on speed and motion, aspects that Waddle can handle, but a style that can put the defense in a bind when you have a player like Hill drawing attention.

The target count might rise a bit (he’s yet to clear six in a game this season), but I’ve got the decline in quality essentially offsetting the quantity.

If you want to play him as a top 30 receiver in this matchup over struggling wide receivers like Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins, and Ladd McConkey, I think you can. But I’d be careful in assuming that the injury to Hill should vault Waddle up the rankings.

Jaylin Noel | HOU (at BAL)

I hope the Texans have a long-term plan for the pair of receivers they drafted in April, because this is a flawed team that is underutilizing them.

Jaylin Noel has earned four targets in four games and has been on the field for just 23.8% of the offensive snaps. He might be an asset in the future, but redraft managers need not worry about a kid who impressed last year at Iowa State (80-1,194-8).

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs MIN)

With Cedric Tillman out for this week and likely more, you’re probably going to have to get comfortable at least considering Jerry Jeudy as a top 30 receiver.

The numbers haven’t been there yet (13 catches in four games with zero games of 70+ yards), but with 8+ targets and a 25+ yard catch in three of four games, there are some signs that he could be nearing his best week of the season.

Starting next week.

In 2024, 29.7% of his targets came deep downfield, but that rate has spiked to 43.3% through four weeks this season. That’s great in spots where the home run ball is available, but opponents have the second-lowest aDOT against the Vikings this season, which will make accessing a ceiling game difficult.

The Browns get the Steelers and Dolphins in Weeks 6-7, two of the five worst pass defenses in the league. I think you sit Jeudy this week, maybe even buy low, with the hope that the breakout isn’t far away.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at CLE)

Jordan Addison missed the first three weeks by way of a suspension before debuting in Ireland against the Steelers.

By averaging 13.4 yards per catch and scoring on 14.3% of his receptions through two seasons, Addison established himself as an elite option when getting the ball in his hands.

We saw glimpses of that in his 2025 debut, with a 21-yard contested catch where Carson Wentz clearly instructed him to trust him when singled up in coverage, being the first example, and the 81-yard busted coverage gain that followed. No receiver stepped up in his stead, and with T.J. Hockenson not as much of a factor through the first month of the season as we had hoped, it stands to reason that Addison should see plenty of volume.

Upcoming schedule:

• Week 5 vs. Browns (London)
• Week 6 bye
• Week 7 vs. Eagles
• Week 8 at Chargers (Thursday Night Football)

That’s a tough way to open your season, especially with a backup QB. Addison carries a wide range of outcomes, and I expect that to be the case for the entirety of 2025. If you’re left without a Drake London or Rome Odunze this week as byes begin to impact starting lineups, Minnesota’s WR2 is a perfectly viable plug-and-play option next to Justin Jefferson.

Josh Downs | IND (vs LV)

It always scares me when a player is struggling to perform when his team is playing as well as it might all season, and that’s the case with Josh Downs.

He’s yet to top 51 receiving yards in a game, ranks fifth on this team in receiving yards, and hasn’t earned more than five looks from Daniel Jones in three of four contests.

We all see flashes of talent, but without opportunity, it really doesn’t matter.

Now, I do think Michael Pittman will eventually have to battle scoring regression, and that could naturally increase the value of his partner in crime. That said, this is a narrow range of outcomes for the player, and most of those outcomes aren’t favorable given the construction of this roster.

The Colts have three favorable matchups in October. If Downs’ next month looks like the past one, we can discuss how viable he is, but until then, I’d keep him on the back-end of rosters.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (vs NE)

Teams like the Packers and Bills are difficult to predict every week in terms of target distribution, but I’ve found that eliminating names is easier than inflating them.

The goal is always to determine where the targets are going, but there is no saying in how you get there. Jayden Reed got hurt in Green Bay, and that helped us hand out targets with more confidence because we had one fewer earner to worry about.

We haven’t had an injury like that happen in Buffalo, but it has become clear that the preseason hype surrounding Josh Palmer was just that: hype.

He currently ranks fifth on this team and has totaled five catches, having hauled in five during his debut with the team, notably in the crazy comeback against the Ravens. Cutting Palmer is the percentage play to make; you just have to be comfortable in knowing that an explosion week or two is likely to occur at some point and that you’re going to miss it.

I’m not sweating that. The odds are good that the big week would have come on my bench anyway, so I have no problem punting off any remaining shares of Palmer in favor of a Darius Slayton or Luke McCaffrey type.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at CLE)

The Bengals offered zero resistance in Week 3, and the Steelers gave them zero room to breathe last weekend.

Justin Jefferson’s involvement, however, is clearly matchup-proof. He earned 29.2% of the targets against Cincinnati, and last week, he tallied his league-high eighth first-half game with 95+ receiving yards since 2020 (eight catches on eight targets) on Sunday.

The scoreboard, the return of Jordan Addison, the quality of the moon that night – none of it matters. Jefferson is as inevitable as anyone at the position. While the ceiling might now be at the tippy top of the mountain, his elevated floor is plenty to keep him as a WR1 no matter who is responsible for getting him the ball or who is playing defense.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (at BUF)

Kayshon Boutte’s 103-yard performance against the Raiders in the season opener was impressive, but he saw more targets in that game than he has in the following three, and it seems to be the inverse plan of Stefon Diggs.

For the season, he’s averaging 16.5 yards per catch, and if you want to take a high-risk play in a spot where the Patriots will likely be required to score 25+ points to compete, Boutte is a viable dart throw in this, the first week of byes.

But be aware that you can likely find a dozen receivers on your waiver wire with a higher mean point projection.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs WAS)

There are two receivers in the league with 5+ catches in all four weeks this season: Puka Nacua and Keenan Allen.

Allen has been great to start his age-33 season and even leads the team with five end zone targets. I think he’s basically a fancy Khalil Shakir for the Chargers, but is benefiting from a system that is now very pass-heavy.

That likely won’t change moving forward, though a weakening offensive line and any resurgence from Ladd McConkey could add more volatility to Allen’s short-area role. For now, though, he remains a dependable PPR flex you can trust.

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs NE)

Keon Coleman leads the Bills in targets this season and has accounted for six of Josh Allen’s 14 deep completions this season, but let’s not sugarcoat this: everything, even a month later, is still inflated by the bonkers fourth quarter against the Ravens.

• Week 1, Q4: 22.5 PPR points
• Other 15 quarters: 20.8 PPR points

At best, we are looking at a highly risky flex in times of desperation. The 77.3% catch rate this season is nice, but not something I view as the least bit sticky (2024: 50.9%), thus putting me on the negative side of this profile moving forward.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs NE)

Khalil Shakir has scored in consecutive games, catching all nine targets in the process and establishing himself as the only receiver on this team that you can trust on a reasonably consistent basis.

The long score against the Saints last week was as much the result of poor tackling as anything, but that’s always in play for these low aDOT receivers who often get the ball in space.

The touchdowns are a bonus. You can count on Shakir for double-digit PPR points more often than not as long as the game stays competitive, something I think happens in this primetime divisional showdown.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs WAS)

OK, people, here is where we get sucked down a rabbit hole and overthink a decision at a high level.

Let’s start with the obvious: McConkey has been terrible for fantasy purposes. He’s been held under 50 receiving yards in back-to-back-to-back contests, finishing outside the top 40 at the position in each of those weeks, in part because he hasn’t been targeted in the end zone yet — the magic elixir for WRs struggling in the yardage department.

For the season, his aDOT and catch rate have both dropped from his rookie season, two stats that are almost always inversely correlated.

You’re likely 0-4 or 1-3 if you spent up on McConkey this summer, and I say that based on experience.

But this Charlie Brown is going to try to kick the football again this week, and I’ll tell you why.

The Chargers are easily atop the PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) leaderboard through the first month, and that’s a good place to start. This isn’t calling my shot on an Eagles offense that might not complete a pass for two hours of real-life time; this is me targeting dropbacks, something that I expect there to be plenty of if Jayden Daniels can help push this game pace.

That’s a start.

Connected to that is the Joe Alt injury. You know what teams don’t do more of when losing a key interior piece? Run the ball. Again, the volume position of this is an easy sell.

Without another offensive lineman, it’s easy to make the case that the Commanders post an impressive pressure rate in this one. They are the ninth-best unit at doing so through four weeks, and, in my opinion, they are going to like their chances of making Herbert uncomfortable given the patchwork nature of the line in front of him.

Targets via quick throws:

• McConkey: 55.6%
• Keenan Allen: 40%
• Quentin Johnston: 38.9%

We might be onto something here (McConkey has three of the four lowest aDOT games of this trio this season); let’s keep going.

Last week, in a game where at no point did McConkey have anything going and the Chargers were trying to squeeze out a victory, who do you think led the receivers in third-down targets?

Yes, indeed.

What if I told you that Washington was the third-worst defense in terms of YAC allowed per catch on short receptions?

And who doesn’t enjoy some symmetry? Last October, with the Chargers seeking their fourth win of the season, two weeks removed from a one-score win over the Broncos and fresh off of a heartbreaking road loss, Mr. McConkey turned six targets into a 6-111-2 stat line, his first true breakout game of what turned out to be a strong rookie campaign.

Hmmmmm.

Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at LAC)

This is not a priority add or anything like that, but Luke McCaffrey, a second-year receiver out of Rice, has scored in consecutive games, and that naturally draws interest from managers with bye week season now upon us.

The production has been there despite playing just 38.1% of the snaps over that stretch. Terry McLaurin is going to come back and earn targets at a high level, something that wasn’t the case last week, and the crafty veterans (Deebo Samuel/Zach Ertz) aren’t going anywhere.

Knock on my door if Washington starts to prioritize him over Chris Moore (62.9% snap share with a 41-23 route edge over McCaffrey in those two games), and we can reevaluate: right now, this is a hot streak I’m not paying attention to.

Malik Nabers | NYG (at NO)

And just like that, we have to wait 11 months to see one of the brightest stars in the game take the field again.

Malik Nabers tried to adjust to a deep throw in the second quarter on Sunday, planted, and awkwardly fell to the ground.

Torn ACL.

Entering last week, his per-game career averages (118 catches and 1,375 yards) put Nabers on the doorstep of greatness, and that still might be his trajectory, but we are going to have to wait until next summer to see him suit up again.

Thanks to advancements in modern medicine, a return to action when the 2026 season kicks off is expected, if all goes well. If Jaxson Dart can build upon an impressive debut, it stands to reason that Nabers will be a fantasy first-round pick.

If you can buy low in a dynasty setting, you do it. It’s not likely, but if the team with Nabers is in win-now mode, you have nothing to lose by making an offer.

Marquise Brown | KC (at JAX)

Hollywood Brown scored 12.8 PPR points in the big win over the Ravens last week, but I’m not the least bit interested.

I understand why his name is gaining some momentum. The Chiefs looked like “THE CHIEFS” last week, and if they are, in fact, back to elite form, you want a piece of the puzzle.

But what does Brown do that is unique for this offense?

Xavier Worthy is a weapon across the field, but one who joins Tyquan Thornton as the field stretchers in town, while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce check in with significantly lower aDOTs than Brown, positioning them to earn the high-efficiency targets along with the running backs.

I’m not sure there’s anything but a TD-dependent role for him in this offense as it is, let alone when Rashee Rice returns in two weeks and leads this team in opportunities.

Brown has seen 5-6 targets per game in the last three, and that’s what I think we get on Monday night. That’s fine if you’re replacing a Rome Odunze type or want nothing to do with the Bengals (that’s harsher than I’m willing to be, but I’d understand) this week, but I don’t think this is a player that holds value in standard-sized leagues for much longer.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs TEN)

For the second time in three weeks, the very early script included a schemed-up, short-range target in an effort to get Marvin Harrison Jr. unlocked and confident.

On Thursday, it was a screen on the first pass and picked up eight yards, but it didn’t accomplish the larger goal. He disappeared for the next 35 minutes or so of game time, only making the broadcast when targeted on a deep crossing route that saw him bobble a third-and-long pass that resulted in an interception.

Not ideal.

I was preparing to have the bust conversation as the game bled into the fourth quarter, but then it happened? Maybe? Hopefully?

Harrison caught all four of his targets in the final stanza, racking up 42 yards and a contested grab in the end zone to keep Arizona competitive. The 14.2 fourth-quarter PPR points were easily a career high (he averaged just 2.2 PPG in fourth quarters as a rookie) and, more importantly, we saw the confidence that made him special in college.

We saw relief.

We saw joy.

I’m a math guy, not a “vibes” guy, but this felt like it was needed. There are still target share concerns, but if this connection is trending in the right direction, it tracks that the opportunity count could rise. His aDOT is down 19.7% from a year ago, and that should help him at least give us a floor to complement the fact that he’s seen at least one end zone target in 14 of 21 career games.

Through 21 career games:

• Harrison: 87 catches, 1,062 yards, 9 TDs
• Harrison Jr.: 78 catches, 1,093 yards, 10 TDs

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at PHI)

Marvin Mims was a top 90 receiver in just one of the first three weeks, but if you put the Bengals in front of him … WR9.

Besides the matchup, what changed?

Everything.

Entering last Monday night, Mims was a field stretch and nothing more. Half of his targets came deep downfield, and that comes with a wide range of outcomes when playing with a second-year signal-caller.

In Week 4, his aDOT was 3.7 yards (Weeks 1-3: 15.3), and he was handed the ball for the first time. As a result, he caught every ball thrown his way and cashed in that rush attempt with a 16-yard score.

I’m interested. If Sean Payton’s mind is spinning with ways to get this playmaker the ball in space, I want to be a part of the fun. A matchup with the Eagles isn’t great for building on the success, but after this week, the Broncos get the Jets, Giants, and Cowboys.

Early-season Mims wasn’t close to a WR3 in my rankings, but my opinions change as the facts change, and if we see this new usage stick, he’ll be a flex option for me in the coming weeks.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs LV)

Isn’t it crazy how much difference one change can make?

From depth of target to opportunity earning, essentially every Michael Pittman Jr. metric looks the same as it did a season ago. Still, the production is on the upswing thanks to a new man under center.

Pittman has scored in three of four games, and that’s what scares me moving forward. He’s averaging roughly five catches and seven targets per game, right in line with what we’ve come to expect. The scoring, however, has spiked early despite earning a target on just 7.7% of his red zone routes.

Every league is different, and every roster is different, but if I’m hovering around the middle of the standings and could move Pittman with a low-end RB2 from Ladd McConkey and an average RB2, I pull the trigger.

If you want to plug in your specific settings and see what our projections think of your proposal, take our FREE PFSN Trade Analyzer for a spin!

Mike Evans | TB (at SEA)

Mike Evans suffered what Todd Bowles labeled as a “low-grade” hamstring injury, and while that sounds good, let’s not forget that this is a 32-year-old receiver who is in the process of seeing Emeka Egbuka replace him.

Obviously, not all hope is lost. Evans still has plenty of juice (the five-yard TD two weeks ago was the scoring zone slant that we’ve seen work for a decade with him) and when at full strength, he stands to slide into the back-end of my WR2 rankings. But with Chris Godwin looking healthy over the weekend and the best from Bucky Irving yet to come, there’s as much risk as reward in counting on Evans.

There are some instances where a productive player goes down with an injury, and I’ll encourage you to buy at a discount. Opportunities like this present themselves all the time as a fantasy manager is holding a distressed asset because of their standing in your league and is looking, for lack of a better way to say it, to make a bad deal. To take pennies now for a dollar in the future.

This isn’t that.

READ MORE: Mike Evans Injury Update: What’s the Latest on the Buccaneers WR, and Will He Play in Week 5?

Evans missed three games last season, and these soft tissue injuries always carry a risk of aggravation. We haven’t seen the future Hall of Famer reach 60 receiving yards in a game this season, and I’m not sure that changes in a meaningful way when he returns to the field.

Assuming he sits this week, you’ll be able to free up a roster spot by using your IR, and that’s fine. Just be careful in assuming that you’re getting a difference-maker when he returns to your lineup.

Nico Collins | HOU (at BAL)

Things are at least moving in the right direction for Nico Collins, and that’s more than plenty of high-end receivers can claim.

Over the first two weeks this season, he averaged a woeful 5.5 yards per target. Still, that rate has rebounded to 10.8 over his past two, and a banged-up Ravens defense isn’t exactly squashing my optimism when it comes to the positive trajectory of Collins.

In Week 2, we saw a featured receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown post a 7-77-1 stat line on eight targets against Baltimore, and that’s basically what I think we can expect here. He’ll be the focus of this defense, but with the injury bug running through this team, I’m not sure it matters.

Collins has a 29+-yard grab in three straight and continues to prove that any position is a scoring position when he’s on the field.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at PHI)

The first-quarter end zone target caught my attention, but it wasn’t close to connecting, and it was Pat Bryant’s only look for the evening.

He ran the fourth-most routes among Denver receivers in the blowout win over Cincinnati, and with Marvin Mims scoring, it’s hard to imagine Bryant being a redraft asset this season.

Sean Payton seems to have warmed to RJ Harvey, but not all first-year players are treated the same, and Bryant has too many hurdles to clear to get a realistic chance in the short term.

You can move on.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs WAS)

The “not all development is linear” crowd is having a field day with this, starting with Quentin Johnston, a 2023 first-round pick who was the butt of jokes and is now a top 5 fantasy receiver.

The craziest part of his success this season (pace: 1,432 yards and 17 TDs) is that he continues to earn looks as the game wears on.

That may sound simple, but it’s not as if his breakout season has the Chargers scheming up easy looks his way early in games; he’s instead earning them on his own, and that’s even better.

First two drives at Giants, Week 4:

• Keenan Allen: 1 catch (9 yards) on 2 targets
• Johnston: 1 catch (4 yards) on 2 targets
• Omarion Hampton: 1 catch (2 yards) on 1 target
• Oronde Gadsden II: 0 catches on 1 target
• Ladd McConkey: 0 catches on 2 targets

The stutter-and-go touchdown was a work of art, and the wide-open nature of his offense (Johnston ranks fifth in the league in routes run despite playing alongside two very viable receivers) gives this QB/WR connection the potential to do great things all season long.

Johnston has yet to be held to under 14.5 PPR points in a game this season. In 2022, Justin Jefferson was the only WR who was four-of-four in that regard through four weeks. In 2023, again, just Jefferson.

The splash plays are unlikely to hit at the rate they have thus far (three of his four scores have come from 20+ yards out), but everything else in this profile looks legitimate, and Johnston has earned himself a long fantasy leash after a massive September.

Rashee Rice | KC (at JAX)

Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and with a Week 10 bye, you’re looking at a fantasy star that needs to hit the ground running in a month when you get him back.

Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.

With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.

If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term. I’m told this is what parenting is like, but I cannot confirm.

If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:

Week 12 vs. Colts

Stat to track: Second-highest short pass passer rating allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse).

Week 13 at Cowboys

Stat to track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%).

Week 14 vs. Texans

Stat to track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3)

Week 15 vs. Chargers

Stat to track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate prior vs LAC: 65.4%)

Week 16 at Titans

Stat to track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes

Week 17 vs. Broncos

Stat to track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest.

Rashid Shaheed | NO (vs NYG)

Under Derek Carr, we knew what Rashid Shaheed was. He carried with him high-end upside, but we understood that risk was involved.

I’d sign up for that again if given the option.

It wasn’t perfect, but there was a ceiling to chase, and that was all we wanted when decisions got tough, courtesy of bye weeks and injuries.

Now? Now, Shaheed has been in the 5-6 target bucket for 42-52 yards in three straight. The spike plays aren’t a part of this Spencer Rattler-led offense, and that has me souring on his WR2 as someone I’d roll the dice on.

That said, I’m not considering cutting ties. I still think this is an ultra-talented player with a clear path to looks who is valued by his team (two carries in the first half last week were encouraging).

This is one of those situations where I’m rooting for a change under center, not because I have confidence in Tyler Shough, but because “different” is more enticing than where we currently are.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs HOU)

With Zay Flowers earning targets at a high rate and the tight end room finally healthy, the need for Rashod Bateman is fading fast.

Yes, he had the short TD in Week 3, but 10 catches in a month with three sub-25-yard games doesn’t earn you a roster spot in most formats.

It’s possible that Bateman has a big game or two in the second half of this fantasy season, but such a performance would be more the result of a defensive lapse than any schematic change.

Bateman’s vertical role simply isn’t one that Todd Monken’s system prioritizes at a high level, and that means you can move on without much concern (I’d much rather a pure RB handcuff like Ray Davis, a player with a clear set of instructions only to play if an injury happens ahead of him on the depth chart).

Stefon Diggs | NE (at BUF)

You mean to tell me that an aging receiver coming off a serious injury requires a fair share of live reps to work his way up to game speed?

The Stefon Diggs showcase against the Panthers (101 receiving yards after totaling 112 through three weeks) was impressive, but I’d still proceed with caution.

The Patriots haven’t pushed him past a 62.5% snap share this season, and a less-than-full-time player paired with a young quarterback isn’t exactly what we draw up when looking for a consistent producer.

That said, he looked good. The 33-yard catch in the second quarter flashed some athleticism that we didn’t see earlier in the year and wondered if we’d ever see again.

He’s probably not going to average 5.6 yards per route on a routine basis (it was the third most efficient game of his career), but the arrow is pointing up, and that’s more than we can say for plenty of receivers after a month.

The ceiling, for me, remains that of a WR3.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs DET)

I really wish I could give you a reason to feel good about this.

Like, I really do.

I pushed my deadline on submitting this as I searched under every rock. Heck, under every pebble. It can’t be as bad as it looks, I thought. Talent has overcome circumstance before, I opined.

The deeper I dove, the worse it got. Instead of uncovering little kernels of hope, I was weighed down by stats of despair. Facts like “22 teams had 25+ snaps in enemy territory in Week 4 and the Bengals have 24 since Week 3” pop up, and that’s when I decided to call it quits.

Tee Higgins isn’t one of the 144 players with a four-catch game this season, and I’m not sure it will turn around anytime soon. He’s running the vertical routes in his Jake Browning offense (half of their deep targets over the past two weeks), and those are lower-percentage throws on a good offense, never mind whatever you want to call this.

Those plays, if the throw is kept in bounds, at least offer the concept of a plan for upside, but it’s not exactly a very good plan. I’d rather plan Stefon Diggs in a revenge spot after his big Week 4 or Christian Kirk going up against what remains of the Baltimore defense.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at LAC)

Terry McLaurin will miss a second straight game with this quad injury that is lingering longer than initially feared. He hands off the WR1 duties to Deebo Samuel again and will try to return next week in a perfect spot against the Bears.

McLaurin has a track record of great health, so I’m choosing to take an optimistic view long-term, but there is no denying that this injury is a concern for a receiver that didn’t exactly get off to a great start this season (10-149-0 in three games).

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs MIA)

Tetairoa McMillan certainly looks the part of a future star in this league, but he’s developing a bit of a Bryce Young problem, and that’s something that can suck the fantasy upside out of even a high-upside player like this.

He’s flirting with a 50% catch rate this season and, for reasons unknown, ranks third in end zone targets for a team that rarely gets within shouting distance of the paint.

Despite the consistent volume and playmaking (8+ targets and a 20+ yard catch in all four games), the limitations of this offense have held McMillan under 70 receiving yards three times.

The involvement and matchup dictate that he is a WR2 for me this week, and while I question the upside, he should have a reasonable floor in a matchup against a below-average defense that is operating on short rest.

Tory Horton | SEA (vs TB)

The idea of Tory Horton (6’2″ with athletic tools) is solid in a Seahawks offense that is looking for juice next to Smith-Njigba; we just aren’t all the way there yet.

The rookie caught touchdown passes in Weeks 2-3 and just missed a chunk play in Arizona on Thursday night when Seattle perfectly disguised their shot play with three TEs and got him singled up downfield.

The more I see things like that, the more I think that Horton is the WR2 in Seattle by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, and that could land him on the flex radar.

But we aren’t there yet. Horton has yet to earn five targets in a game this season, and that creates far too low a floor.

Travis Hunter | JAX (vs KC)

Travis Hunter high-pointed a deep target in San Francisco last weekend, and those are the types of plays that remind us of the intoxicating ball skills that this kid has. The 28-yard gain was his second of 20+ yards in as many weeks and the longest in the first month of his career.

We’ve seen glimpses of route versatility that suggest he’s going to be a long-term asset in this league, but this passing game is not going to develop a project like this on the fly in 2025.

Hunter has 13 targets in three games since being looked at eight times in his NFL debut, and the playing time is all over the place.

Weekly participation report:

• Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
• Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
• Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps

It pains me to say, but Hunter is entirely off my flex radar now and for the foreseeable future.

Fellow rookie Elic Ayomanor has been the more involved offensive piece lately, and I’d play the interesting Titan ahead of him if we are ordering the first-year receivers for Week 5, a sentence I had no idea I’d be typing at this point in the season.

Tyreek Hill | MIA (at CAR)

The broadcast showed Tyreek Hill in the middle of the pregame hype huddle on Monday night, and it appeared to be more than just a show. The explosive receiver was heavily involved early in Miami’s first win of the season, and we even saw some of the confidence that has made him special in the past.

But every player in this league is just one play away from disaster, and the worst-case scenario came true as Hill was tackled out of bounds in the third quarter.

Torn ACL, dislocated knee, and structural damage that could put his career at risk.

Hopefully that’s not the case. Modern medicine is amazing, and it seems like every year, we get a comeback story that seems improbable. Surgery and rehab will undoubtedly be a topic of discussion this summer, but his 2025 season is obviously over.

RELATED: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 5: Malik Nabers, Josh Downs, Tyreek Hill Can Go

Malik Washington out-targeted Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 3-1 on Monday night in the battle for the WR2 role in this offense, but I’m not adding either with confidence. This is an offense built around the unique strengths of its star players, and trying to replace one very much feels like a square-peg, round-hole situation.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at NO)

Wan’Dale Robinson is a good bet to lead the Giants in routes and targets for the remainder of the season with Malik Nabers (torn ACL) done, a role that makes him a PPR stash waiting to happen in this frisky Jaxson Dart-led offense.

I don’t care about Week 2. Robinson’s actual projectable ceiling is low, which means we will need to see him develop an efficient connection with Dart before plugging him into lineups.

In September, 59.9% of his yards came in that OT thriller against the Cowboys: those numbers count, but in terms of impacting my projections, his production in the other three games (10 catches for 95 yards and zero touchdowns) is much more impactful.

New York could be playing with a lead again this week, and that means leaning on the ground game. For me to elevate Robinson to a flex ranking, I want the script to favor the pass, and for him to essentially become a version of the running attack.

You drafted Robinson to be a reasonably steady, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency type, and that’s exactly what I think he gives you moving forward.

Xavier Legette | CAR (vs MIA)

A hamstring cost Xavier Legette Week 3 after a limited practice week, and if this is the first you’re hearing of that, it tells you all you need to know.

This is an inconsistent offense at best, and Legette has yet to make good on the Round 1 draft capital that was spent on him (eight yards on 15 targets this season).

The ability to earn targets is at least interesting, but there’s no reason to try to get ahead of the curve in a situation like this.

Nothing in this Carolina pass game is consistent week-to-week, and with Tetairoa McMillan vacuuming in targets weekly, there simply isn’t enough meat left on this bone to like any secondary pass catcher with Bryce Young at the controls.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at JAX)

Xavier Worthy and the Chiefs didn’t seem too worried about his shoulder in his return to action. Not only did the speedster rank second to JuJu Smith-Schuster in routes run, he earned eight targets, protected his body, and opened up everything that Kansas City wanted to do.

The ability to avoid contact, in the short-term at least, is as critical as anything we saw on Sunday afternoon, as an awkward landing could result in extended missed time. It is important to remember, however, that defenders can’t hit what they can’t catch, and with a 16.6-yard aDOT against the Ravens, Andy Reid seemed pretty aware of this fact.

I still have my concerns around the value of Worthy when Rashee Rice returns. We saw Worthy expand his route tree in the absence of Kansas City’s WR1 last season, and that’s great, but if he is pushed into a more vertical role in the second half of this season, how much does Tyquan Thornton eat into his pie?

There is always going to be big-play potential for Worthy by nature of his skill set and the QB responsible for feeding him those opportunities, but I do fear that those splash plays will become critical, not bonuses, once Rice reacclimates to this system.

You’re starting him every week until I have some data points to prove/disprove that theory.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs HOU)

Zay Flowers has five more catches this season than any of his teammates have targets, and he’s been Lamar Jackson’s easy button through the first month (74.2% catch rate).

He’s needed it.

Flowers has been a viable WR in three of four weeks without yet seeing a single red zone look. I worry that the floor comes into play more moving forward than we’ve seen up to this point, if for no other reason than this Baltimore offense has room to grow.

Isaiah Likely isn’t going to be held without a target all season, and Derrick Henry’s best is likely yet to come. I like Flowers as a WR2 this weekend, provided that Jackson is active (he’d fall into the flex range if not), understanding that I’d be listening to offers in the trade market.

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange | JAX (vs KC)

My guess is that, one month ago, I told you that three tight ends will enter Week 5 with a 6+ catch streak, Brenton Strange’s name wouldn’t have been on your short list.

Or maybe your long list.

Mark Andrews and Jake Ferguson are the other names on that list, two less surprising players. Trevor Lawrence is struggling across the board when not targeting Strange, so why change the one thing that’s not broken?

• Strange: 19 catches on 23 targets for 182 yards
• Brian Thomas Jr.: 12 catches on 32 targets for 164 yards
• Travis Hunter: 13 catches on 21 targets for 118 yards

The Chiefs looked better last week and currently own the 10th-highest blitz rate. I’m not asking for Strange to step outside of himself: get us 5-8 targets and let the chips fall where they may. He’s not going to swing your matchup, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t at least keep you competitive at the position.

Brock Bowers | LV (at IND)

We thought that Geno Smith coming to town would add stability to the quarterback position and that seems to be like a Smith pass … inaccurate.

The veteran QB has been spotty at best through the first month of the season, and Brock Bowers has felt the brunt of it.

Of course, the lingering knee injury has to be at least mentioned, but in a favorable spot (vs. Bears) and with Michael Mayer sidelined (concussion), it wasn’t unreasonable to expect the second-year star to break out of a funk.

We weren’t so lucky. Bowers has caught 4-5 passes in every game this season, and that’s meant just 38-46 yards in three straight (2024 averages: 6.6 catches and 70.2 yards). His aDOT is up a full yard, and his slot usage has taken a step back, breadcrumbs that we don’t love to see.

That said, you can’t really overreact. A handful of catches per game holds value at the position, and if Smith can turn things around, Bowers still has a very clear path to being a top-five performer at the position moving forward.

Cade Otton | TB (at SEA)

Chris Godwin was coming back off a serious injury, Mike Evans was sidelined, and the game script heavily tilted toward the pass for Tampa Bay as they dug themselves a big hole.

If there was EVER going to be a time for Cade Otton to get on track, the stage was set.

No dice.

Otton has topped out at four targets in a game and has 34 yards on his 2022 ledger. Earning opportunities for the Bucs figures only to get more difficult as the season progresses, and that is why their tight end is not a wise way to get exposure to this high-upside offense.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (at ARI)

Patience is vital for the Titans to have as this Cam Ward-led unit takes their lumps, but we don’t have to be along for the ride.

Chig Okonkwo managed just four yards on three targets against the Texans on Sunday and hasn’t scored a touchdown in over 10 months.

With virtually no scoring equity and only so much yardage to chase through the air in this offense as a whole (one game over 35 yards for Okonkwo), you’re better off chasing change (Theo Wander in New York) or matchup (Mason Taylor vs. Dallas) if you’re in a deeper league and need help.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs DEN)

I think, by law, you have to consider selling an Eagle pass catcher after a big week, right?

Dallas Goedert benefited from circumstance on Philly’s first drive against the Bucs, capping off a drive with a two-yard touchdown that may have been a “tough push” if not for Jalen Hurts taking punishment on a 29-yard scamper the play before.

The Eagles went back to him two drives later for another short touchdown, and that was all she wrote.

Philadelphia didn’t complete a pass in the second half, thus pausing the stat lines of all involved.

We said it after the A.J. Brown game in Week 3, and I’m sure we will say it when the DeVonta Smith breakout game occurs: these are all talented players, part of a system that doesn’t have our best interest at heart.

Goedert remains inside my top 10 at the position this week, understanding that the Broncos are on a short week and have an elite corner who will help limit the appeal of the receivers. That said, expectations are important, and I’m under no illusion that he’ll be a lineup lock a month from now, let alone when fantasy championships are on the line in December.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs NE)

The Bills are asking Dalton Kincaid to block less, and his fantasy managers are thrilled. The minor adjustment in his role has allowed him to more than double his PPR production per target from last season, and while I doubt that sticks, it’s clear that Josh Allen trusts his TE as much as anyone in the passing game.

Kincaid has scored in three of four games and ranks ahead of the Hunter Henrys and Juwan Johnsons of the world (both this week and for the remainder of the season) because of how much I trust this Buffalo offense.

We know they are going to score, and we know that, as far as skill players, James Cook is going to be a big part of that. After the star tailback, valuable looks are there for the taking, and Kincaid is taking advantage.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (at BAL)

Dalton Schultz saw the first two targets of last week’s win over the Titans, and that’s great, but managing to pick up just 16 yards on four targets after that point is why he’s a part of the streamer tier.

For the season, efficiency has been about all he’s offered. Schultz has caught 16-of-21 targets (76.2%), and that has him producing well over expectations.

Christian Kirk is back, and we saw Jayden Higgins find the end zone for the first time in Week 4. The Texans need to make some adjustments if they are going to save this season, but putting more onto their tight end’s plate isn’t likely to be a part of those tweaks.

If you think this game will be a shoot-out, be my guest and plug him in, but that’s all he is. For me, this week and the rest of the way, he’s no different than Orande Gadsden or Mason Taylor, two players that I actually think have more single-week spike potential.

Darren Waller | MIA (at CAR)

Safe to say that I didn’t have “difference maker” and “Darren Waller” in the same sentence entering Monday night, but in his season debut, he turned 10 routes into four targets, three catches, and two touchdowns.

In the process, the man who was pursuing a rap career less than six months ago now has as many top 4 PPR finishes at the position as Trey McBride and Brock Bowers combined.

Usually, I’d write off this performance. I’m not sure that I’m fully on board, but Miami is going to be in a passing script for much of the season, and they just lost Tyreek Hill (knee) for the remainder of 2022 at a minimum.

It’s not as if Waller has to overtake a crowded tight end room (Julian Hill and Tanner Conner have a total of five touches on 210 offensive snaps this season) and the target earners behind Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane aren’t exactly established high-proven options (Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine leading the way).

This is a good matchup, and if you add Waller (roughly 90% available across the industry), you get an extended run before having to navigate Miami’s bye. He’s not a must-add. I wouldn’t blame you for not wanting to invest in this offense, but he does crack my top 15 at the position this week: the power of a speculative role increase is enough at this position.

David Njoku | CLE (vs MIN)

If not for the production David Njoku provided over the previous two seasons, would we still consider him for lineups?

He hasn’t cleared 40 receiving yards in a game as a part of this broken offense, and his route count has dropped each week as Cleveland has gained confidence in their running game (41 routes in Week 1, followed by 39, 29, 27 since).

He was a volume play last season (8.8 targets per game), but that’s nearly impossible to replicate in this offense that operates out of a two-TE base setting and is rarely in a rush.

Cleveland is currently a top 10 team in terms of average time of possession, and if that slips at all, what little we are getting from Njoku could completely dry up. There aren’t many names on the waiver wire these days, so I don’t blame you for holding, but he’s outside of the circle of trust, and I’d be willing to pivot if given the opportunity.

Evan Engram | DEN (at PHI)

A calf injury was ailing Evan Engram entering Week 2, and while he seemed to heal up okay from that, an achy back cost him Week 3.

It’s a bit of a walking wounded situation with him right now, and that makes him a risk I’m not comfortable with at the moment. Engram managed to earn seven targets on 27 routes in Denver’s blowout win over the Bengals on Monday night, usage that supported him finishing sixth for the night in receiving yards.

Maybe Bo Nix turned a corner in the win, and Engram stands to benefit long-term. I’d love to express that optimism, but I need more than a single data point to suggest that, especially one that came on an extended work week, at home, against one of the five worst defenses in the league.

Hunter Henry | NE (at BUF)

That’s consecutive TE1 performances from Hunter Henry, but he was lucky to get there.

In the throttling of the Panthers, the big tight end earned just two targets: it just so happened that one was a 31-yard score, his biggest play of the season, and a spot-on throw from Drake Maye.

He’s played at least three-quarters of the snaps in every game this season, but his role in the passing game has been fleeting in the victories (five targets across two wins compared to 19 in the two losses).

That should be comforting this week as the Bills profile as a popular Survivor pick and are heavily favored. In this matchup last season (Week 16), Henry posted a very viable 4-39-1 stat line and combined with Austin Hooper for 41.9% of Maye’s targets.

Maybe the spike week from Diggs is something to worry about target-share-wise, but I need to see it for more than one week. I have both tight ends in this game ranked as top-six options at the position for a divisional primetime showdown to wrap up a busy Sunday.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs HOU)

It was good to see Likely back on the field Sunday after missing the first three games of the season recovering from summer foot surgery.

Of course, if you weren’t actually watching the game, you’d have no idea that he was active at all. He ran 20 routes, but wasn’t one of the seven Ravens to earn a target, and his lack of production was highlighted even further by Mark Andrews turning a similar role (23 routes) into a viable PPR day (10 points).

This feels like a TE committee in the making (both Andrews and Likely ran nine routes when Sunday’s loss had a single-digit score differential) is the right answer to which one to count on might be “neither.”

That’s my fear, but we aren’t there yet. For now, especially with Lamar Jackson (hamstring) a bit dinged up, Andrews is the more fantasy-friendly option, while Likely is the stash-and-hope play.

I remain intrigued by his physical profile and will be tracking not only the route count, but the target type as he works his way up to game speed.

The Ravens are going to need every ounce of production they can get after a 1-3 start, leading me to believe that Likely could get some extended run as the weather turns (both Cincinnati matchups come during the final month of the fantasy season).

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs MIA)

Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and is going to miss “multiple weeks”.

The 22-year-old tight end sparked in Week 2 against the Cardinals with seven catches, but even that came in that chaotic comeback attempt where Bryce Young threw 30 (!) passes in the fourth quarter.

I continue to think there is something in this profile. The blend of size and athleticism is that of an asset in this league, especially for an offense that is theoretically in the process of building. His target share, albeit in a small sample, was improved last season, and that’s impressive with an aDOT that was up 25.4% from his rookie campaign.

Tetairoa McMillan is going to be the alpha target earner in this offense for years to come, but after that, we are looking at a lot of middling talents without much proof of concept in the target-earning department.

Sanders doesn’t need to be held onto in redraft leagues if he was ever on a roster in the first place. Maybe he can be a streamer option in the second half of this season, but we will address that when we see that he is fully healthy and involved.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (at NYJ)

Jake Ferguson scored for the first time since lighting the Packers up for a playoff hat trick back in 2023: outside of only scoring against the Green and Gold, this man is doing it all.

His 34 catches are the most in September by a TE during the 2000s (2007 Antonio Gates and 2019 Darren Waller held that mark until Sunday night with 33) and that’s fueled three straight games with at least 16.8 PPR points (tied for the fourth-longest streak by a TE at any point in a season since 2020).

After posting consecutive games with 6+ air yards per target, he’s dipped under 3.5 in consecutive games, and I actually think that’s a good thing. He’s never going to beat defenses too deep downfield, and it would appear that the injury to CeeDee Lamb has him functioning as an extension of the run game.

Ferguson probably isn’t catching the 145 passes in which he is currently pacing, but Zach Ertz’s record of 116 for a tight end is a perfectly reasonable goal, and he’s worked himself into a top tier at the position that now is a group of four (Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Tyler Warren being the others).

Juwan Johnson | NO (vs NYG)

Riding the gravy train with Juwan Johnson was always going to work until it didn’t.

That’s not even an anti-Johnson take. It’s a Saints take.

New Orleans is a bottom-6 offense in terms of points, yards per play, net yards per pass, and goal-to-go efficiency, making it not exactly a safe haven for fantasy production of any kind.

He plays the tight end position, so catching three passes for 28 yards isn’t devastating, but he’s seen his target count drop each week and is oddly reliant on chunk plays in an offense that offers as little upside as any in the sport (17+ yard catch in all four games).

I have Johnson ranked as a fringe starter, but I do think his peak value has clearly passed. If I roster him, I’m hoping he can be involved enough this week for me to justify keeping him on board, with the Week 7 trip to Chicago being a spot that has my attention as an opportunity to sell this stock on the heels of a productive game.

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs HOU)

Mark Andrews is the personification of the Facebook Relationship status of “it’s complicated,” and you can’t sell me on anything different.

In Weeks 1-2, he caught two of four targets and looked lost. Since then, he’s pulled in 13 of 14 and looks featured. But should he be?

Andrews averaged a touch over two feet after the catch per reception last weekend against the Chiefs, and it’s clear that he’s on the wrong side of the age curve when it comes to making plays with the ball in his hands.

Pair that with the return, albeit a muted one, of Likely, and it’s hard to see this recent volume surge sustaining.

As if a looming tight end committee in a run-centric offense wasn’t enough to consider, what do you say we throw in a hamstring injury to one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game?

This is a difficult matchup, and had Likely been looked at in the passing game last week, Andrews would be outside of my top 15 at the position this week.

As it is, he’s sitting at TE12, but on awfully thin ice for the remainder of this season.

Sam LaPorta | DET (at CIN)

Is this one prior that we have to run from?

Sam LaPora saw his PPR PPG dip by 22.5% from Year 1 to Year 2 and is tracking to fall by 22.7% on that lower threshold this season.

If you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, he didn’t find the end zone last September either, and he finished with seven touchdowns as he rebounded with time. That’s a thin train of thought with LaPorta checking in under 40 yards in three straight contests and the Lions clicking on all cylinders.

Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are inevitable at this point, and that means that LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and David Montgomery are sharing the scraps. This is going to be an uphill battle.

You could do worse things than bet on this Detroit offense, but is he any different than Dallas Goedert? LaPorta is teetering on that top 10 line for me, and that limited level of optimism is more a matchup thing.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at CLE)

T.J. Hockenson worked hard to get you any sort of value late (three catches during a five-play stretch in the first half of the fourth quarter), and thank God for that because he dropped his only look up to that point.

You’re likely familiar with the idea that NFL teams script their first set or two of plays. They practice them throughout the work week, and the idea is that, with no game script to consider, they can execute and get off to a good start.

I subscribe to that general idea, and that makes it alarming that I am tied with T.J. Hockenson for first-quarter targets this season.

The difference is, of course, that he’s run 18 routes, and I’m comfortable at my house.

In September, he caught three first-half passes, and that’s just not enough bankable usage for me to feel good about. A brutal matchup with the Browns isn’t ideal, and while I think a low aDOT role can have success in this offense, we don’t have any signs of it coming.

I’m not dropping Hockenson or anything like that. The profile would suggest that is possible, but what are you gaining on the wire in terms of stability?

Betting on Hockenson is a bet on Kevin O’Connell more than anything. He doesn’t deserve to be considered the lineup lock that you drafted him to be, but the lack of depth at the position means you’re just kind of stuck hoping for a change in target distribution moving forward.

Travis Kelce | KC (at JAX)

Travis Kelce has yet to clear 61 receiving yards in a game this season, and that’s with plenty of receiver absences around him.

Outside of blind trust in his name and this system, why should we expect a bounce-back?

He has one end zone target this season and just two over his past eight regular-season games. I wouldn’t mind a aDOT that has declined every week (8.7 yards – 6.2 – 5.7 – 3.4) if it came attached to light volume, but that’s not the case, so it doesn’t carry the same floor-elevating powers that it has in the past.

He’s my TE9 for this week, and while that sounds optimistic, it’s more a reflection of how effective a 5-50 stat line can be at the tight end position these days.

Trey McBride | ARI (vs TEN)

With Brock Bowers being up-and-down, has the top tier at the position shrunk to a single name?

Trey McBride was featured from the jump on Thursday night against Seattle, accounting for five of Kyler Murray’s 13 first-half completions, and that’s the status quo at this point. He’s a walking mismatch in man coverage and as good as it gets in stretching zone coverage just beyond where the defense can slow him.

Through the first month of this season, McBride is running 37.5 routes per game, and that level of opportunity is all we need. For his career, the 25-year-old has caught at least five balls in 19 of 22 games (86.4%) when reaching at least 33 routes run.

We got glimpses of a Marvin Harrison Jr. breakthrough in the comeback effort against the Seahawks, and I don’t think that matters. Whether it sticks or not, McBride’s role isn’t going anywhere, and another triple-digit reception season feels close to inevitable as long as he can stay on the field.

Tyler Warren | IND (vs LV)

There have been plenty of impressive metrics coming out of Indy through four weeks, but when it comes to the production above expectations that I view as most sticky, it’s Tyler Warren, and it’s not close.

In college, he was weaponized. He’d take snaps under center and handle screens as often as he ran vertically. I didn’t think we’d see that sort of versatility in his first NFL season, let alone the first month of his first season, but here we are.

This is a team with an athletic QB and an All-Pro RB: they gave Warren consecutive handoffs inside the five-yard line last week. They are clearly all in on him being the future of this passing game, and that has him entrenched in the top tier for our game for the foreseeable future.

Warren is the only tight end in the league with three games of 70+ receiving yards and is a good bet to lead the position in scoring when 2025 is all said and done.

Zach Ertz | WAS (at LAC)

It’s a bit difficult to determine if Zach Ertz’s recent struggles are more the result of the QB change than Father Time, but I’m approaching this situation with plenty of caution, even with Jayden Daniels expected to return.

The veteran TE found pay dirt in both of Daniels’ starts this season and failed to do it in either of Marcus Mariota’s outings. The yardage upside is limited (under 40 yards in three of four), and that places more importance on him scoring than I’m comfortable with.

Even without WR1 Terry McLaurin out, Ertz was just another guy. Deebo Samuel was the clear focal point in this pass game: after him, six players on this roster earned 2-4 targets. I don’t trust the volume enough to rank him as a TE1 this week, and he sits behind the Brenton Strange tier at the position.