The Los Angeles Rams (4-4) host the Miami Dolphins (2-6) in a Monday Night Football showdown between teams on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
We’ve got all angles of this Week 10 finale covered, including picks, predictions, injuries, broader trends, and PFN+ stats.
How To Watch Dolphins vs. Rams
- Date: Monday, Nov. 11
- Time: 8:15 p.m.
- TV: ESPN and ESPN Deportes
- Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters
Dolphins vs. Rams Inactives/Injury Report
Dolphins Inactives
Rams Inactives
- OT Rob Havenstein
- DT Neville Gallimore
Dolphins Injuries
Out
- OT Austin Jackson (knee)
Doubtful
None
Questionable
- WR Dee Eskridge (personal)
- S Jevon Holland (hand/knee)
- FB Alec Ingold (calf)
- S Patrick McMorris (calf)
- WR River Cracraft (shoulder)
- WR Tyreek Hill (wrist)
Rams Injuries
Out
- OT Rob Havenstein (ankle)
- DT Neville Gallimore (shoulder)
Doubtful
- None
Questionable
- S Kamren Curl (knee)
- G Kevin Dotson (ankle/knee)
- LB Christian Rozeboom (neck)
Dolphins Storylines To Watch
Dolphins Playoff Chances
Most teams are thinking about the NFL Draft at 2-6, not postseason football. But the Dolphins’ situation is a bit unique.
Their offense is much improved with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, and they have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule, per PFN’s analytics.
That’s why Miami has the best chances of any of the 2-6 or worse teams to reach the postseason. What are the Dolphins’ odds, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor? 12.2%.
The winners and losers as it relates to the NFL playoff race following all of Sunday's action in Week 10 ⬇⬇ pic.twitter.com/mfiz3sZvGG
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 11, 2024
Slippage on Defense
Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel rejected calls for them to be sellers at the NFL trade deadline, instead insisting they believe in their core, both this year and beyond.
It’s certainly a gamble, and Miami might need a strong finish to the season to avoid significant offseason changes. The offense has held up its end of the bargain, scoring 27 points in each of the last two weeks. But the defense has tanked, coughing up second-half leads in all three of their last three games — all losses.
The Dolphins’ defense in the second half of games that last three weeks have allowed conversions on 44.4% of third downs (and 100% of fourth downs), 211.3 yards per game, 6.3 yards per play, 8.5 net yards per pass, and 12.7 first downs.
Tua Tagovailoa’s QB+ Grade
Grade: A-
Tua is putting together the best numbers of his career through his first four games of the 2024 season. His numbers this season will be a little more volatile than most others in the next few weeks due to the relatively small sample size. Still, what we’ve seen so far, especially in the last two weeks, has been impressive.
Tagovailoa ranks in the top five in clutch-situation performance so far this season, and his 55.6% third-down conversion rate leads the league among qualified QBs. Additionally, we’ve seen what Tua brings to this offense, as his receivers average a fifth-best 6.5 YAC/Cp this season. With the Dolphins’ season fading into oblivion, this could end up being a forgotten season.
— Ben Rolfe
Dolphins Offense+ Analysis
Grade: D+
Tagovailoa is back in the fold and has completed 80.7% of his passes since returning. That level of efficiency will result in their 29th ranking in points per drive trending up with time, especially given the play-calling tendencies.
No offense in the NFL allows pressure less often when not blitzed than the Dolphins, a scheme that allows Tagovailoa to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. De’Von Achane’s pace with his QB1 under center this season is for over 2,200 scrimmage yards, and the Tyreek Hill explosion seems inevitable.
I don’t think there’s much debate here: Miami is the most likely team in the middle third of these rankings to elevate in a significant way during the second half of the season.
— Kyle Soppe
Dolphins Defense+ Analysis
Grade: C
The Dolphins have seen their situation completely flip in the last two weeks. Just as their offense picked up with Tua’s return, their defense has fallen away drastically, thanks to a combination of injuries and tough matchups. They were just inside the top 10 in these rankings two weeks ago, but two bottom-six finishes since then have seen them slip below the halfway point.
Throughout the season, getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers had been the Achilles heel of this defense, and that has proven to be the case in the last two weeks. Miami also saw a huge decline in third-down conversion rate in those two games, after it had been a strength for the first six games.
— Ben Rolfe
Rams Storylines To Watch
Rams Playoff Chances
The three-game winning streak has significantly boosted Los Angeles’ chances of making the NFL playoffs.
Entering Monday night, the Rams had a 28.15% chance of qualifying for the postseason, according to Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor. Obviously, that figure will change depending on what happens in Monday’s game against Miami.
The 6-4 Arizona Cardinals currently sit atop the NFC West, while the Rams sit in third. However, Los Angeles still has a 15.25% chance of winning its division, odds boosted by recent victories over the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.
— Dakota Randall
Homecoming Game
Two of the biggest names of the Rams’ Super Bowl 56 championship — cornerback Jalen Ramsey and receiver Odell Beckham Jr. — return to SoFi Stadium Monday in a different uniform.
Ramsey spent four Pro Bowl seasons with the Rams, earning first-team All-Pro honors in 2020 and 2021. Beckham’s time in L.A. was far shorter (12 games, including the playoffs), and he tore his ACL in his final snap with the Rams — in the Super Bowl, no less.
But Rams coach Sean McVay spoke warmly of Beckham this week.
“I think the important thing with people, this is both Jalen and Odell I feel this way about, do you leave an impact?” McVay said. “What kind of relationships do you build, and then what kind of impact do you leave? Both of those guys certainly left a big impact on me and this place.”
Matthew Stafford’s QB+ Grade
Grade: D+
We’ve seen a couple of intriguing flashes from Matthew Stafford this season, but overall, it’s been a tough season for the veteran. He’s among the worst in the league this season throwing under pressure and on third down. Hopefully, having both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at full health should help him improve these numbers going forward.
Rams Offense+ Analysis
Grade: C
The Rams have had to navigate injuries to both of their star receivers and have done so in ways that were not expected this preseason.
This season, Kyren Williams has this offense ranking ninth in rush success rate, and the respect he demands from opposing defenses has allowed Los Angeles to own the ninth-lowest sack rate despite having a statue under center.
With both Nacua and Kupp operating at full strength, the Rams have plenty of upward mobility as they look to challenge for the division title.
Rams Defense+ Analysis
Grade: C
Things are coming together nicely for the Rams. Their offense is back at close to full strength, and their defense appears to have found a method that works.
Since its Week 6 bye, LA’s unit has been in the top 12 all three weeks, continuing an encouraging pre-bye trend.
After starting the season in the bottom 10 for the first three weeks, the Rams have dragged themselves up to performing above average on a weekly basis and around league average overall.
The driving force behind that recovery has been their ability to not only get pressure without sending extra men but also to get sacks. Pair that with a good red-zone efficiency, and this defense is proving a useful complement to their recovering offense.
Dolphins vs. Rams Stats and Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami’s 51.9% offensive success rate over the past two weeks (Weeks 1-7: 36.7%).
QB: Since returning, Tagovailoa has completed 46 of 57 passes when not pressured (80.7%).
Offense: Miami is being blitzed on only 13.9% of dropbacks. The Cincinnati Bengals, at 17%, are the only other offense under 18.6% this season.
Defense: The Dolphins are forcing just 0.75 turnovers per game, tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the fourth-fewest through nine weeks.
Fantasy: If you extend Achane’s numbers from four Tagovailoa games for a 17-game season: 2,266 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in five of Miami’s past six road games played in prime time.
Los Angeles Rams
Team: In 2023, the Rams lost three straight games before their bye and won seven of eight following the week off. This season, they were 1-4 before their bye and have won all three games since.
QB: Nacua got ejected late in the first half, which impacted his quarterback in a major way. In Week 9, Stafford completed just 2 of 10 third-down passes — in Weeks 1-8, he owned a 59.2% completion rate on third downs.
Offense: Over the past two weeks, 76.7% of Los Angeles’ yards have come through the air (Weeks 3-7: 62.6%).
Defense: The Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate this season (38.8%) despite blitzing just 25.4% of the time (league average: 25.8%).
Fantasy: Our game is driven by touchdowns, and Williams, while great at converting, isn’t immune to that. He has consecutive games without a rushing score (rushing TD in nine straight prior) and doesn’t have a rush gaining more than 17 yards in seven of eight.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 (76.9%) in the Rams last 13 prime-time games.
— Kyle Soppe
PFN’s full Week 10 Stats and Insights are available here.
Dolphins vs. Rams Bold Prediction
Jaylen Waddle over 50 yards receiving
A year ago, that would have been a good prop bet for the second half of a Dolphins game.
But Jaylen Waddle’s production has cratered with the Dolphins’ many quarterback injuries and McDaniel’s newfound emphasis on running the ball and throwing to tight ends.
Still, the pendulum has swung too far, and given Hill’s health issue and the Rams’ porous pass defense (7.8 yards per attempt on the season), this should be the night Waddle gets back on track.
Dolphins vs. Rams Picks
- David Bearman (87-50 on the season): Rams
- Adam Beasley (87-50): Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona (83-54): Rams
- Mike Gambardella (89-48): Rams
- Dakota Randall (84-53): Rams
- Dallas Robinson (87-50): Rams
- Kyle Soppe (93-44): Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro (81-56): Dolphins
- Mike Wobschall (87-36): Rams
Full Week 10 picks from PFN are available here.