The NFL standings are a snapshot of where we stand today, but they aren’t predictive of where we’ll be at the end of 18 weeks. Our strength of schedule metric is designed to help you get a glimpse into the future by ordering the teams from hardest to easiest remaining schedule based on a handful of metrics.
Who Has the Hardest Remaining Strength of Schedule in the NFL?
The Chicago Bears overtook the Green Bay Packers prior to Week 10 when it comes to the most challenging path to the finish line, and that might appear likely to stick for the remainder of the season:
- Week 12 vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 13 at Detroit Lions
- Week 14 at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 15 at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 16 vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 17 vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Week 18 at Green Bay Packers
If Caleb Williams is going to develop down the stretch of this season, it’s going to come against some of the league’s best. There could be some bumps in the road, but I’m of the belief that Williams is the man to get this franchise past Wild Card Weekend for the first time since 2010, and I expect we see signs of that optimism moving forward.
Ranking All 32 NFL Teams by Remaining Strength of Schedule
1) Chicago Bears (Last Week: 1)
The back-weighted divisional schedule can work in some teams’ favor, but not any member of the best division in football. All six of Chicago’s divisional games come in the final eight weeks of the regular season, including a showdown in Lambeau that could have serious postseason implications in Week 18 (Green Bay won the first meeting on a blocked field goal at the buzzer in Week 11).
A trio of ugly losses coming out of the Week 7 bye is less than ideal, but such is life when dealing with a rookie at the most important position.
2) Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 4)
The Cleveland Browns still have both of their games with Pittsburgh left and will have to go to Baltimore in Week 18 to prove that their Week 8 upset win over the Ravens wasn’t a fluke.
The defense was trending in a positive direction before getting Taysom Hill’d in Week 11. After giving up 35 points to the Saints, I’m not comfortable in assuming that Cleveland’s defense is going to support any sort of overachieving run down the stretch of this season.
The sledding is going to be tough, but the upside in Cleveland’s profile is greater now than it was a month ago. Their wide range of outcomes makes them a wild card that, despite a poor record, could impact the playoff race in a significant manner.
3) San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 2)
The 49ers lost a hotly contested Week 11 game against the Seahawks and have now put themselves in a tough spot.
In a tight divisional race, there is little-to-no room for error, but there’s no denying that San Francisco’s final two games of the regular season are likely to determine this team’s fate:
- Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions (Monday Night Football)
- Week 18 at Arizona Cardinals
The Cards handed the 49ers a one-point loss in Week 5, and the division title could very well come down to the final game of the regular season.
4) Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 6)
The Packers came off of their bye with a nail-biting win in Chicago and are now home for two games in a four-day stretch (49ers and Dolphins), which will prove critical to Green Bay’s standing in the hierarchy of the NFC.
Could we be looking at a third straight season in which Green Bay’s fate comes down to Week 18 (vs. Bears)? That might be the best-case scenario, as the Packers will enter that contest having played four games in four weeks in four cities on three different days of the week. Jordan Love has been aggressive, and with a tough schedule ahead, that is a dangerous style to bank on.
5) New England Patriots (Last Week: 5)
Wins are not a measure of success for the 2024 New England Patriots; they are now simply looking to develop Drake Maye. The rookie continues to be banged up, but the schedule lightens as we approach the holidays (Weeks 12-15: Dolphins, Colts, and Cardinals).
New England projects to have a top-five pick in April as it looks to emerge from rock bottom and get back into the AFC East mix. If the Patriots can continue to be competitive, this season will be labeled a success.
6) Detroit Lions (Last Week: 9)
The Lions have been the greatest show on turf in the month prior to a disaster performance against the Texans in Week 10 — a performance that looked like a floor outcome (five Jared Goff interceptions), but still yielded a victory.
The final six weeks of the regular season will include four divisional matchups. While those games will be a challenge, the two non-divisional games will be as difficult as any (Bills and 49ers).
If Detroit is going to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed, it will have to be earned. If it happens, the Lions will likely enter January as one of the two favorites to win its fifth championship.
Even with a tough remaining schedule, the 9-1 Lions are one win away from posting consecutive double-digit wins for the first time in franchise history and make a run at the NFC crown.
7) Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 10)
The Los Angeles Rams have won four of five games coming out of their Week 6 bye and are in the division mix as a result.
When Matthew Stafford has his weapons healthy, Los Angeles is capable of beating anyone, upside they will need to access during a difficult four-week stretch coming soon (Weeks 14-17: Bills, 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals).
8) Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 7)
The Seahawks haven’t won a playoff game since 2019, but they’ve qualified for the postseason in nine of the past 12 seasons. They’re going to have to work hard down the stretch, but a Week 11 win in San Francisco was a great first step.
Seattle still has a pair of NFC North games to navigate, but with all four of their Rams/Cardinals games ahead of them, the Seahawks still have a path to the postseason, albeit a bit of a longshot.
DK Metcalf returned to the lineup in Week 11, and if this defense can trend closer to their September form, ruling them out isn’t wise.
9) Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 13)
The Vikings’ ship appeared to be taking on water after their Week 6 bye with consecutive losses to the Lions and Rams, but they’ve rebounded since by taking full advantage of a light part of their schedule.
Minnesota will have to do its heavy lifting before Christmas as its regular season ends with Green Bay and Detroit. Like it or not, Sam Darnold has this team in the mix, and they aren’t projected to go away any time over the next month.
10) Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 3)
The Baltimore Ravens took a tough loss in Week 11 in Pittsburgh, a divisional battle that very much took the same form of years past. The physical battle leads them into a tough two-game run (Chargers and Eagles), as the Ravens wrap up 13 straight weeks of action before going on their bye.
Baltimore deserves to be viewed as one of the best teams in the NFL. If they can navigate this difficult second-half schedule, they’ll be a popular pick to win their first championship since 2012.
11) Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 11)
The Carolina Panthers have won consecutive games (by a total of four points), giving this fan base a reason for long-term optimism. I encourage Panther Nation to hold onto that feeling — the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles are next up, meaning the results could be ugly in the short term.
Carolina hasn’t had a winning season since 2017, and there’s little evidence to suggest that it’s remotely close to snapping that run. Yet, they may have played themselves out of a top draft pick with wins over the Saints and Giants.
12) Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 8)
The Russell Wilson era is off to a good start, and Mike Tomlin is, yet again, maximizing the wins he gets from the talent on his roster. Early in the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense was viewed as prohibitive, but that’s changed since Wilson took over.
The defense is as good as it gets, which should allow them to have success when favored (they get the Browns twice in a three-week stretch around Thanksgiving). That said, Pittsburgh will have to continue to put points on the board as the regular season winds down and playoff seeding is being sorted out (Weeks 16-18: Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals).
13) Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 14)
The schedule and the Las Vegas Raiders’ desires might not align as the season wears on. Vegas isn’t in position to chase a playoff berth, but their light December schedule (Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints) might result in a late win or two that impacts their draft selection in April.
The Raiders haven’t won a playoff game since 2002 and will need to connect big in the draft if they want to end that drought anytime soon.
14) New York Giants (Last Week: 20)
We are approaching an important month for the New York Giants and their 2025 draft status. New York’s overtime loss to the Panthers in Germany could prove to be a franchise-altering one if it results in a spike in its pick quality in April. However, the Giants will need to lose more coin-flip games for that to be the case (Cowboys and Saints in Weeks 13-14).
This season might not be going anywhere, but the Giants’ roster could be positioned to avoid the recent trend of failing young quarterbacks if they elect to address the position in April — they’ve benched Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito for Week 12.
15) Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 12)
The Buffalo Bills have ripped off six straight wins, with the 30-21 win over the Chiefs in Week 11 being the clear highlight.
With their final three games of the favorable variety (both Patriots games and a home date with the Jets), there is credence to the Bills being labeled as the third-best bet to win the Super Bowl, odds that took a step forward following the win over Kansas City.
Buffalo closed out last regular season with five straight wins, and there’s a chance it will take similarly strong form into the playoffs this year. However, all the regular-season success doesn’t mean much if they can’t solve the boogeyman known as Patrick Mahomes in January.
16) New York Jets (Last Week: 23)
The New York Jets need to worry about themselves more than the schedule, but they could post some decent results to end this season and potentially entice Aaron Rodgers to give this thing another try in 2025.
In Weeks 15-16, New York faces the Jaguars and Rams, two winnable games that could remove them from the top-pick conversation. It’ll be interesting to see what version of this team emerges from their Week 12 bye.
17) Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 22)
The Los Angeles Chargers are opening up their offense, and that makes this team a threat to beat anyone. The Bolts have won five of six games heading into a run against feared quarterbacks (Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs).
Los Angeles finishes the regular season with the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders, a run that comes at the perfect time and is why sportsbooks are projecting them well when it comes to postseason odds.
If Jim Harbaugh continues to put more on Justin Herbert’s plate, this is a frisky team that no one would want to play with their season on the line.
18) Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 27)
The Miami Dolphins welcomed Tua Tagovailoa back in Week 8, which gives them a level of offensive expectations moving forward that they were lacking in October. Miami’s Week 10 win over the Rams wasn’t a work of art, but it was very much a game they would have lost earlier in the season and has this fan base grasping to playoff hope.
Miami looked better in Week 11 against the Raiders and is a threat to make noise late if it can continue to trend in the right direction offensively.
The ‘Fins get another winnable games this week (vs. Patriots), a game they need to have in order to have hope of extending their streak of winning seasons to five.
The division has plenty of moving pieces for the second half of 2024 and 2025. Can the Dolphins build enough momentum down the stretch to sell their fan base on them as a legitimate contender next season?
19) Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 16)
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Cincinnati can score with anyone in the NFL (36.7 points per game in the three games preceding their Week 12 bye), explosiveness that hasn’t yielded much in the way of success due to the lack of consistency on the other side of the ball (they lost two of those three games mentioned above).
The schedule can be navigated the rest of the way, making a winning season still an obtainable goal.
20) Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 24)
The Arizona Cardinals have won four straight games and have their eyes set on parlaying the remaining schedule into a division title.
Arizona is coming off of its bye this week, positioning the Cardinals to enter the stretch run with reasonable health for a schedule that is highlighted by games against the Seahawks, Patriots, and Panthers in Weeks 14-16.
The Cardinals own the ninth-worst defense by EPA, which could undo their postseason dreams. Yet, the offense has the sort of upside that makes a late-season winning streak at least possible. The schedule also works in Arizona’s favor to make things interesting in terms of the NFC hierarchy.
21) Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 17)
The Dallas Cowboys were embarrassed in Week 6 by the Lions (47-9 loss) and looked flat for much of a 30-24 loss in San Francisco coming out of their bye before losing a game (and their quarterback) against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9.
Week 10 went about how you’d expect (34-6 one-sided loss to the Eagles), and Week 11 wasn’t any better (34-10 loss on Monday Night Football at the hands of the Texans).
With a middling schedule the rest of the way, Dallas is in an unenviable position — a projected bad team that isn’t bad enough to get a top-five pick.
The Cowboys are in a city that never wants to prioritize the future over the present and a roster that is best suited for the future over the present. That’s a tough spot to be in, and despite the schedule easing up for the final 1.5 months, this is a franchise struggling to compete at the desired level.
22) Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 15)
The Kansas City Chiefs may not be dominant (seven single-possession wins), but they continue to get the job done over the course of 60 minutes and are a real threat for the NFL’s first three-peat.
I don’t expect the Week 11 toe stub to matter much in the scope of things as Kansas City gets the Panthers and Raiders over the next two weeks, a soft stretch that would allow them to prevent any sort of seed-altering spiral.
23) Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 21)
The Philadelphia Eagles used their Week 5 bye to get healthy and have earned six straight victories since then, showcasing form that the 2023 regular season started with.
There isn’t an Eagles fan on earth that wouldn’t have taken an 8-2 start. If Philadelphia can win two of three remaining games against the AFC North, they’ll be positioned to host playoff games and make a deep run this winter.
The Eagles close the regular season with home games against the Cowboys and Giants (both expected wins), giving them the opportunity to be a dangerous team in January that can beat anyone.
24) Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 18)
The Dirty Birds continue to lead the NFC South despite consecutive losses, and the remaining schedule very much plays into their favor.
Obviously, there’s a lot of football yet to be played, but if the Falcons can enter mid-December in first place, their chances of holding on are good with the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers on the schedule over the final four weeks.
- Week 12 BYE
- Week 13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 14 at Minnesota Vikings
25) Denver Broncos (Last Week: 25)
The Denver Broncos’ only losses since Week 2 have come against the Chargers, Ravens, and Chiefs, teams that we all view as legitimate threats.
Denver closes the season with an interesting three-game run (Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs), which might give us insight as to what 2025 will look like for the Broncos in addition to determining their playoff fate in 2024.
26) New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 30)
The New Orleans Saints enter the bye with consecutive wins, results that will have a significant impact on their draft pick in April.
Fantasy football managers should be willing to give the Saints’ offense a look in the short term (Weeks 13-15: Rams, Giants, and Commanders), a run of favorable matchups that come at the perfect time for you. Outside of that, this is a lost season, and there’s no clear direction for this rebuild to take.
27) Houston Texans (Last Week: 31)
The Houston Texans have exactly the type of schedule the rest of the way you want a young team to have — plenty of soft spots with a few true measurement games. Their loss to the Lions in Week 10 was a competitive one and didn’t impact them in the future betting markets in a significant way, nor did the lopsided win in Dallas on Monday night.
Nico Collins will ramp up his activity in the coming weeks, and with the Titans and Jaguars on the schedule ahead of the Week 14 bye, we could be looking at a 9-4 team that is peaking at the right time.
Everything is pointing toward a second straight double-digit win season with this franchise heading in a very positive direction under C.J. Stroud. If Houston is as good as we think, they take care of business with a seemingly easy schedule the rest of the way and enter the postseason as a feared opponent.
28) Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 29)
The Indianapolis Colts eeked out a one-point win in New York against the Jets in Week 11 with Anthony Richardson back under center, providing the fan base with much-needed optimism.
The shift back to Richardson seems like a move with the highest upside, and with a very manageable schedule, a 10-win season isn’t outside the range of outcomes.
- Week 12 vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 13 at New England Patriots
- Week 14 BYE
- Week 15 at Denver Broncos
- Week 16 vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 17 at New York Giants
- Week 18 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
29) Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 19)
The Tennessee Titans moved on from DeAndre Hopkins ahead of their 38-point Week 8 loss, a sign that this 2-8 team isn’t expecting to do much winning for the remainder of the season.
Tennessee will be a significant underdog in each of their next two (Texans and Commanders), strongly bringing a top-three pick within the range of outcomes.
Even with a favorable stretch in December, the Titans are very likely to have double-digit losses for the third straight season and could reach a dozen L’s for the first time since 2015.
30) Washington Commanders (Last Week: 26)
As encouraging as the 7-4 start to this season is, the Washington Commanders’ finishing kick could be just as impressive: Titans, Saints, Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys.
Washington hasn’t won more than 10 games in a season since the 1991 team cruised through the regular season (14-2) and finished the deal with a Super Bowl victory.
Will the Week 8 Hail Mary be a sign that this is a team of destiny? I’m not going that far, but Washington is well ahead of the curve when it comes to its rebuild, and the rest-of-season schedule isn’t likely to slow them down.
31) Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 28)
The Jacksonville Jaguars had been battling consistently before getting their doors blown off in Detroit (52-6 loss in Week 11). If that form is a sign of things to come, the Trevor Lawrence injury brings a 12+ loss season very much into focus.
Jacksonville closes the season with the Raiders, Colts, Jets, and Titans twice — a finishing run that has the potential to give this fan base some level of optimism heading into 2025. The second half of the season should be better than the first half, but I’m reaching to spin this year as a positive.
The schedule isn’t prohibitive, but that doesn’t mean Mac Jones will lead Jacksonville to success.
32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 32)
The banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers missed a valuable chance in Week 8 against the Falcons and after falling just short in Week 10 against the 49ers, the battle is now an uphill one when it comes to their playoff hopes.
Following the Week 11 bye, Baker Mayfield and company should find a second wind (getting Mike Evans back certainly wouldn’t hurt), as the Buccaneers will likely be favored in three straight (Giants, Panthers, and Raiders).
If Tampa Bay is as good as it looked early in the season, there is still a path to the postseason. The schedule certainly works in its favor in an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle at the right time.